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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 21:17:20 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 21, 2022 7:31:25 GMT
colin'Ultimately the West has to decide whether it cares if Ukraine is sovereign-or just part of Russia' and if they decide the former what will they do about it. At the moment the suggestions of proposed sanctions seem quite limited and I doubt they would deter Putin. Actions such as not allowing Russia to use the Swift banking system appear to have already been publicly discarded. Putin will be using all that info to factor in the likely harm if he does invade, at the moment such measures that are being looked at seem fairly weak. Seems to me the West are not prepared to do anything that damages their own economies too much! If we are not prepared to risk damaging our economies, let alone our own armed service personnel, to stop Putin then we are left with a diplomatic solution. Worthwhile for Macron to give it a go.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 8:11:53 GMT
Good questions. I think France and Germany desperately want a Minsk solution. But that means carving up Ukraine.
What do Ukrainians want ?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 21, 2022 8:15:58 GMT
Anong other things the Ukrainians want more robust action now, including strong sanctions on Russia before they invade, rather than after.
We are not willing to do that so we are left with talking
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 8:18:52 GMT
Looks that way. I agree. But it is talking about carving up Ukraine.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 21, 2022 8:22:29 GMT
Possibly or could be a face saving exercise for Putin. He may be looking to climb down and some vague generalisations about closer cooperation in the future may be enough, that and being made to feel important.
Certainly think it is worth a go if we are not prepared to be serious about sanctions.
The problem is it's difficult to get inside Putins head
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 8:59:06 GMT
Even the Guardian has noted that UK has already started making changes: UK axes ‘golden visa’ scheme after fraud and Russia concernsPriti Patel says decision is part of crackdown on ‘corrupt elites who threaten our national security’www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/17/uk-ministers-plan-to-scrap-golden-visa-scheme-amid-russia-concernsAlthough Russians and others looking for a Golden Visa have plenty of other places available: Ireland: €1million gets you and your family full residency, with no requirement to reside Greece, Portugal, Germany and Spain a bit cheaper: €250k-500k but chance to buy Real Estate and have EU residency and access to Schengen Zone Travel Malta, Bulgaria, Cyprus a bit more pricey at over €500k but still cheaper than the old UK scheme. Plenty of other countries as well www.goldenvisas.com/country?NB They still show UK (£2million) so if some of the above have also changed/are changing their 'golden visas' then can someone post the info. Very happy to say UK should have adjusted our criteria years ago as per countries such as Canada which scrapped their 'Golden Visa' and now use a 'start-up' visa that still encourages investment but has a lot of caveats to ensure it is 'good' investment: www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=645&top=6 |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 12:38:13 GMT
BBC tv News interviewing Bellingcat chap. Kremlin released video purporting to show Ukrainians trying to blow up something or other in the Donbass breakaway area.
Its a fake-they have matched video and audio to separate originals dated some time ago.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 13:03:53 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 13:13:15 GMT
So Putin can discuss Minsk III, showing his audiences that folks have to reopen agreements to 'appease' him. Meanwhile he can keep pushing for the 'false flag' excuse (I note your previous post about the fake video) Still quite a while before French elections but I hope (v.low confidence) Macron can drag 'negotiations' out to 24th of April. 'Conspiracy theory' types might want to consider who Putin might prefer as French president and how he might go about making Macron look weak and ineffective - if Putin chooses to! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 13:27:39 GMT
@tw
Sky reporter this morning from Kiev saying Ukrainians demand "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine".
Some chance is my current view.
When Biden meets Vlad ( can you think of a worse mismatch ?) , assuming the American stays awake I expect the Minutes of the Meeting to look something like this :-
* Russia's demand NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe- Not agreed
* Russia's demands on the status and control of Ukraine- Agreed
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 14:11:35 GMT
@tw When Biden meets Vlad ( can you think of a worse mismatch ?) , assuming the American stays awake I expect the Minutes of the Meeting to look something like this :- * Russia's demand NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe- Not agreed * Russia's demands on the status and control of Ukraine- Agreed The Sherpas (Blinken and Lavrov) will sort that out. When it gets to Biden meets Putin then it could be Biden: 'I need gas prices down to help me with the cost of living crisis as it's hurting my polling[1] into 2022 mid-term elections'Putin: ' OK, I can help with that (if you're daft enough to believe me and haven't realised November is 'next Winter') but what's in it for me?'Biden: ' Well, I'll tell the EU they have to accept how we're carving up Ukraine and I'll 'forget' that I said I'd use US diplomatic pressure to stop them approving NordStream2'Putin: ' OK (and see you in 6mths or so when I'll be asking for a bit more given you've confirmed how weak and short-termist you Americans and Western democracies are)' (what he is thinking, not saying) [1] See previous post with polling, or plenty of articles. See ' That's left the Biden administration to call on OPEC nations and Russia to open the taps to ease the price pressure' www.politico.com/news/2021/11/17/gas-prices-biden-inflation-522777PS Neither of them even mention UK but Boris will 'pretend' that he was involved in sorting it all out and Rishi et al will be glad to see gas prices down (even if only until next Winter - and we'd better bl00dy well be aware that the bear will be back when his appetite needs feeding again so no more 'dither and delay' on either the bridge or faster move to reducing energy demands and increasing renewables/nuclear energy supply) |
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Post by birdseye on Feb 21, 2022 18:01:53 GMT
I dont see why posters even mention things like the Minsk protocol unless we are both willing and capable of enforcing it by force of arms. And we arent so willing at all. The result is that Putin can ignore any agreements - its called exercising power. Nor are sanctions of any real consequence in a country that covers such huge areas and is more than self sufficient in everything it needs. Russia is almost a world to itself.
There is a sniff of hypocracy here. There is apparently as much in common between local Russians and Ukrainians as there is between us and say the Irish or the Scots. Sure we wouldnt think of marching into Eire - thats so last year! But we should be able to understand the situation a bit better and a lot less black and white.
Putin is a Russian nationalist and imperialist. He regrets the collapse of the Evil Empire and wants to go some way to re-creating it. More to the point he hates being ignored and Russia being regarded as the third world backwater that it is in economic terms.
In short he is strutting about the world stage enjoying the limelight.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 21, 2022 18:15:09 GMT
Full scale war looks much more likely tonight, thoughts with the people who will die in it.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 18:31:08 GMT
Getting to the crunch now.
I still believe that an international agreement formally recognising Crimea and the two breakaway regions as part of Russia, with a UN force policing the new border, would be the best solution for everyone, including Ukraine.
It would allow Putin his 'victory' and he could retire gracefully.
Anything else will be unstable and probably disastrous for everyone.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 18:40:09 GMT
Well that Macron chap really put in Putin in his place then - NOT! TBC how the West respond to that (some strong words perhaps?) and then exactly when/how Putin declares he has a 'false flag' to hide behind to move the disputed territory lines on the map further West and North and then TBC what step3 is after the West applies it 'shock and awe' sanctions (that Putin is expecting and will retaliate to) Feels like watching a sequel to a movie that you've seen before (in 2014). TBC how many sequels Putin is planning[1] and how long before the audience gets bored and leaves the theatre  [1] Maybe all the way out to Minsk IX: 'Putin makes a move of a NATO member' coming to E.Europe in 2029? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 18:46:03 GMT
It would allow Putin his 'victory' and he could retire gracefully. Mafia bosses don't retire. Putin might very well get his 'victory' (Minsk III) as I doubt 'the West' want to put 'boots on the ground' in a non-NATO country but he'll back next Winter (Minsk IV) looking to carve off a bit more of the old USSR to put back inside Moscow's 'sphere of influence' and if the West protests then he can deploy 'hybrid' measures such as turning off the gas to the countries that made themselves so reliant on his gas. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 19:02:12 GMT
Unfortunately he's not just a Mafia boss, he's a supremacist who wants to create a single Russian state containing all the Russian peoples. All eyes are on Ukraine now, but he's effectively already taken Belarus and it's only a matter of time before that becomes explicit. The West needs to understand what's going on and negotiate a new permanent border now and have the guts to defend it.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 19:09:28 GMT
The West needs to understand what's going on and negotiate a new permanent border now and have the guts to defend it. Where do you suggest 'the West' draws those lines (eg Ukraine pre 2014 at one extreme through to just around all current NATO nations at the other). Everything not then either in NATO or part of what has been conceded to Putin is then what? 'fair game'? Do you think Putin would consider anything 'permanent' or pick off the 'fair game' until it's NATO borders and then request that 'the West' moves the NATO border back to pre 1999 to give himself some more 'fair game' for his games? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 19:21:08 GMT
Well the longer 'the West' (by which I mean US with the support of UK and France) takes to draw the line then the further west it will be. If they'd acted quickly enough it could have been just Crimea. The key cities now are Kiev of course plus Odessa - both of which are hugely symbolic to Putin. They could be saved, but there's no sign of any coherent strategy to protect them as far as I can see. If Kiev goes it will be an unforgivable failure of the West.
All of this has been completely predictable by anyone who has been reading Putin's writings. He's on TV right now explaining it.
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 21, 2022 19:25:42 GMT
Unfortunately he's not just a Mafia boss, he's a supremacist who wants to create a single Russian state containing all the Russian peoples. All eyes are on Ukraine now, but he's effectively already taken Belarus and it's only a matter of time before that becomes explicit. The West needs to understand what's going on and negotiate a new permanent border now and have the guts to defend it. I don't think there is anything the West can do to preserve the border integrity of Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised to see Finland applying to join NATO quickly and there is obviously a line between Poland and Romania, which if the Russians crossed it would mean war. I am not convinced that Putin could afford to take over the Baltic States either. Remember that Russia depends on the West to buy its natural gas and it will take years for them to build pipelines to China. Even Moldova is looking towards the EU these days. |
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Post by birdseye on Feb 21, 2022 19:43:36 GMT
Unfortunately he's not just a Mafia boss, he's a supremacist who wants to create a single Russian state containing all the Russian peoples. All eyes are on Ukraine now, but he's effectively already taken Belarus and it's only a matter of time before that becomes explicit. The West needs to understand what's going on and negotiate a new permanent border now and have the guts to defend it. There is no such thing as a permanent border. Not one of the countries in that area of Europe have the same borders that they did pre WW1. Not even France or Germany have the same borders.
Posters need to be realistic. Short of war, and dont forget that official Russian military policy includes the first use of nukes, peace depends on both sides having an acceptable compromise . For us here in the UK, Ukraine doesnt matter any more than Georgia did.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 19:50:07 GMT
Remember that Russia depends on the West to buy its natural gas and it will take years for them to build pipelines to China. No need for 'reminders' but perhaps you could expand on 'depends on the West'? If the price if significantly higher (as it is already and would be if Russia turns off the taps) then Russia doesn't need to sell that much to generate the same revenue and 'frozen assets' will be the homes of a lot of voters in C-E European democracies. How long before some weak links in likes of Germany, Austria, Italy, etc decide to 'blink'? How long before Biden and others 'blink' given the cost of living crisis is hurting their polling and they have elections coming up? (see previous posts) I assume you still remember how dependent C-E Europe is on Russian gas (see previous posts for the data) and how long it would take them to 'wean' themselves off that dependency. Yes, they can import a bit more LNG (from the global market, as UK now does), maybe Germany switch back on their nuclear power stations and everyone burns a lot more coal while they ramp up alternatives (see lots of previous posts on this thread or the Energy markets thread). We're talking many years of only slowly declining dependency given that we're also all looking to increase EVs and hence electricity demand (a lot of which comes from burning gas) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 19:59:44 GMT
So he has done it-recognised the breakaway regions.
After a long rambling history lesson of why Ukraine belongs to Russia and is now under foreign occupation !
Over to you USA/UK/EU
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Post by birdseye on Feb 21, 2022 20:05:40 GMT
TW posts " How long before some weak links in likes of Germany, Austria, Italy, etc decide to 'blink'?"
I am sure I read somewhere that the Austrians had already blinked and refuse to suspend the use of the new pipeline under any sanctions arrangement
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 20:13:30 GMT
""The recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements," said Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission's president, referring to peace agreements covering eastern Ukraine.
"The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine."
BBC
Yeah-right .
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 20:20:38 GMT
""The recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements," said Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission's president, referring to peace agreements covering eastern Ukraine. "The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine." BBC Yeah-right . Very strong words from vdL. Putin must be shaking in his boots or perhaps knows the saying ' words are wind' ? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 20:33:27 GMT
So he has done it- recognised the breakaway regions. After a long rambling history lesson of why Ukraine belongs to Russia and is now under foreign occupation ! Over to you USA/UK/EU Part of 'recognised' will be: “I would request the federal assembly to back this decision and ratify the agreement of friendship and mutual help with both republics.”[1] So when the first missile (or an old video of one) crosses into either 'Independent' (sic) region then the 'mutual help' clause will be triggered. I wonder if he has the bear faced cheek to simply translate NATO Article 5 (mutual defence)[2]? Still at least he remembered his manners and was polite enough to tell France and Germany (as part of the Normandy Format) first. That 2hr chat with Macron possibly telling him all he needed to know? [1] thehill.com/policy/international/595189-putin-to-recognize-independence-of-ukraine-breakaway-regions[2] www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2022 21:00:40 GMT
'Shock and Awe' (not) from Biden as he ' plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing (BUT ONLY) in the two pro-Moscow territories'(context added) edition.cnn.com/2022/02/21/politics/us-russia-putin-reaction/index.htmlYeah that's really going to hurt Putin and Russia where it hurts (not). If it wasn't so f-ing serious you'd almost have to laugh. Putin probably is. His socks probably laughed off and landing in the Dnieper river (near Kherson perhaps) with Independent 'rebels' off to retrieve them and carve off another slice of Ukraine for their boss soon  |
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Post by lens on Feb 22, 2022 0:51:31 GMT
Getting to the crunch now. I still believe that an international agreement formally recognising Crimea and the two breakaway regions as part of Russia, with a UN force policing the new border, would be the best solution for everyone, including Ukraine. It would allow Putin his 'victory' and he could retire gracefully. Anything else will be unstable and probably disastrous for everyone. Not sure I'd use the term "best" solution (  ), but I'd agree is probably the most pragmatic..... It's what I'd have put my money on a couple of weeks ago, together with the timing - soon after the Winter olympics end. So Russian troops move into the disputed territories, and Ukraine is faced with a decision of just gritting their teeth or launching an all out attack - at which point massive escalation and likely Russian forces moving on Kiev from the north together with air attacks on infrastructure. (And if the latter, an eventual peace treaty where Russia leaves most of Ukraine, but is allowed to keep the breakaway regions and Crimea.) |
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), but I'd agree is probably the most pragmatic.....