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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2022 20:55:14 GMT
In case anyone is still struggling with the importance of nat.gas (and oil) prices, see: 'Russia's current account surplus widened to USD 41.8 billion in the Q4 of 2021 from USD 7 billion in the same period last year..largest current account surplus since available records began in 1994
exports jumping 57.2% to USD 148.7 billion, boosted by sales of oil (86.7%), oil products (74.5%) and natural gas (131.1%)
In 2021, Russia posted a record current account surplus of USD 120.3 billion, determined by the twofold widening of trade balance surplus to USD 185.9 billion'
tradingeconomics.com/russia/current-accountOr in simples terms, for Sleepy Joe, then Russia does not need to access foreign markets. So blocking Russia from borrowing money that it does not need achieves what exactly? Sounds 'tough' to folks who don't understand the issues but achieves nothing (beyond maybe some laughs in Moscow). If you lent money to Russia (as a lot of European banks have - see previous posts) then, well, good luck getting any of that money back or being able to sell that (now worthless) debt on (FWIU the 'smart money' got out some time ago) It ain't 1998 (when Russia did have a debt crisis coz they did rely on foreign debt back then and oil+gas prices collapsed) The way to 'hurt' Russia is to stop buying their oil, oil products and nat.gas. Simples! PS Bonus points for working out why Putin didn't push further in 2014-15 but needed to wait tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil (and expand the scale to 10yrs)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 23, 2022 6:34:11 GMT
I expect or at least hope Johnson will beef up his rather pathetic response on sanctions this morning. If not I think he could be in for a very uncomfortable PMQs not least from his own back benchers.
This from the FT 'Tom Keatinge, an expert in finance and security at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, was dismissive of the UK measures. “All the talk on sanctions so far has meant to be a deterrent and we have turned up to a gunfight with a peashooter.”
Jason Hungerford, partner specialising in sanctions at Mayer Brown, agreed. “To say the UK sanctions list is underwhelming is an understatement, he said. He added: “Clamping down on those banks is not going to change the Russian economy a whole lot. The individuals are a bit more interesting — but they have been sanctioned by the US for some time.”
Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said: “Promsvyazbank is the largest bank in this list, but this is a bank focused on military financing. It operates with companies operating in the defence industry. Adding it to the UK sanctions list will have very little impact.”
Only one of the Banks targeted is even in the top ten banks in Russia.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 8:00:48 GMT
Biden says he is not going to fight Russia in Ukraine so Truss sounds a bit daft when she says: Ukraine crisis: Nothing is off the table in our response to Putin’s aggression, says Liz Trusswww.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-crisis-nothing-is-off-the-table-in-our-response-to-putins-aggression-says-liz-truss-73xwjk8nhor non-paywall link that covers most of it: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60488633I wouldn't trust a word she says but of note: 1/ G7 allies have agreed on further sanctions and 2/ " nothing is off the table". 3/ sanctions announced by the government were the first wave of a "closely co-ordinated effort to ratchet up the pressure" 4/ the UK can "keep turning up the heat" by targeting more banks, wealthy individuals and significant companies.5/ They include sanctioning Russian parliamentarians - which would require new legislation 6/ and preventing British firms from doing business in the two rebel-held areas in Donetsk and Luhansk, recognised by Russia as independent Notes to above: 1/ Japan, Canada (+some others) have acted which is good news to show it's a 'global' effort: thehill.com/policy/international/595427-australia-canada-and-japan-impose-sanctions-on-russia-over-ukraine2/ That is what Biden should have said. Instead he's ruled out defending any non-NATO(treaty) country with 'boots on ground' and no way is UK or any other individual country going to act alone or without US 3/ Pathetic first effort and clearly not closely co-ordinated (which has shown Putin we are not closely co-ordinating) 4/ None of whom would have been daft enough to have left any 'moveable' assets BUT they'll be quite happy to have their liabilities frozen (ie US or anyone else effectively writing off their debts for them, a problem for European banks mostly) 5/ Contradicts her comments on 'closely co-ordinated' but we don't know who went solo/off script (eg EC-EU might have gone to level2 and we thought everyone was just levelling at 1st step?) but see #4 as it's too late to have any meaningful impact (but let's do it anyway as it 'sounds tough' and might as well lock the door even after the horse has bolted) 6/ Does anyone have $, € or £ numbers on that. Pretty sure it will be near zero and have no meaningful impact. The only way to hurt Putin is to stop buying his Oil and Gas and given C-E Europe is so dependent on Russia and Biden et al are so concerned about inflation then I very much doubt that will happen. The only other option (ruled out by Biden) is putting and then keeping 'boots on ground' and the only real way to do that is to make Ukraine a member of NATO (exactly where the 'new' border lines are placed being very tricky). That would likely start a 'hot war' and I very much doubt (and hope we don't) do that. So 'cut to the chase': we're still playing catch-up to Putin who is several steps ahead, doesn't need $$, knows he's going to keep being sent loads of €€ for his now highly priced gas, has just seen the West effectively write off a load of Russian debt and knows we won't put 'boots on the ground'. The Western media and politicians then talk about the lack of coordination on the list of who is hit by sanctions So Putin, the message from 'the West' is take as much of Ukraine as you want, maybe manage to topple the current President and set-up a puppet regime this year or come back for more next year. Whenever you take a pause then let the West know what to put in Minsk III, IV, V...
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Post by neilj on Feb 23, 2022 8:31:08 GMT
The UK Government has made it very clear for a long time it would not put British troops into Ukraine to defend the country Ben Wallace said back in December
“It’s a fact it’s not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia… We shouldn’t kid people on that we would.’
Putin was well aware of this
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 9:44:44 GMT
FT article covering the 'locking the door after the horse has bolted': Russia’s waning reliance on London markets reduces UK sanctions biteJohnson threatens to shut out Russian companies looking to raise capital, but only three have listed since 2014www.ft.com/content/7f0be009-008c-4480-8881-4abace625f81Worth looking at the chart for cumulative deal value ($bn) since 2005 LAB govt (the 5years up to 2010): $35.5bn (over $5bn per year) CON govt (11years 2010-2021): $45.0bn (so less than $1bn per year) NB We of course should shut and lock the door. There are a lot of assets in UK that are not 'moveable'. Keep the assets and let those who have liabilities (ie lent Russia money) worry what happens when the door is locked.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 9:57:20 GMT
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, said RT should be “prevented from broadcasting its propaganda around the world”. Last time I checked UK couldn't speak or act on behalf of the World but FWIW then the RT issue has been covered before. Folks need to start thinking that 'actions have consequences': PS The former leader of SNP and FM of Scotland has a show on RT. SNP now hate him and perhaps have an ulterior motive on wanting to stop him broadcasting his propaganda around Scotland? www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 10:05:51 GMT
FT article covering the 'locking the door after the horse has bolted': Russia’s waning reliance on London markets reduces UK sanctions biteJohnson threatens to shut out Russian companies looking to raise capital, but only three have listed since 2014www.ft.com/content/7f0be009-008c-4480-8881-4abace625f81Worth looking at the chart for cumulative deal value ($bn) since 2005 LAB govt (the 5years up to 2010): $35.5bn (over $5bn per year) CON govt (11years 2010-2021): $45.0bn (so less than $1bn per year) NB We of course should shut and lock the door. There are a lot of assets in UK that are not 'moveable'. Keep the assets and let those who have liabilities (ie lent Russia money) worry what happens when the door is locked. All that stuff about Putin being a loose cannon-not sure what he is going to do next-is beginning to look like hogwash. This operation has all the signs of really long term planning, based on the Putin MO of engineered Russophile breakaways . And if you read that article by him I posted here a while back, and listen to the recent speech, its all founded in a deeply thought out rationale and revisionist history, for Ukraine as part of Russia. I really think he has wargamed this, knows exactly what he will do next-and has thought through the sanctions response too. Why would we suppose he mounts a military operation like this without thinking through our response? And thus far he has judged it right. To hear Cleverly claiming yesterday that hitting three oligarchs and a handful of banks which are already sanctioned, was designed to get him to "send his troops to their homes and families" was truly cringe making.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 10:18:51 GMT
"Germany’s decision yesterday to halt the Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines from Russia prompted praise from its allies, and an ominous threat from Moscow. Two hours after the announcement Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of President Putin’s security council, warned Europeans that their gas prices would double “very soon”."
"Berlin, however, is caught in a unique trap of its own making. For the best part of two decades successive governments have based their energy policies on the availability of affordable Russian gas. In the early 2000s Gerhard Schröder, the SPD chancellor, ushered in the Nord Stream project and laid much of the ground for its successor while announcing a retreat from nuclear power. He is now chairman of Rosneft, the Russian state energy conglomerate, and head of the shareholders’ committee at Nord Stream.
Angela Merkel not only defended Nord Stream 2 and embraced Schröder’s exit from atomic energy, but also approved the sale of Germany’s largest gas storage facility to Gazprom, Rosneft’s sister company, before brokering a deal for her country to pull out of coal.
On Merkel’s watch, Germany, unlike most of its neighbours, did not get around to building any terminals to import liquefied natural gas, the most straightforward short-term replacement for pipeline gas from Russia.
Scholz’s coalition promises to generate 80 per cent of electricity from renewables by 2030, and Germany will be even more dependent on gas as a “transitional” fuel."
Times today
"According to Statista, in 2020 the highest gas dependence on Russia in Central Europe was in the Baltic states, with Latvia on 93% and Estonia on 79%, though Lithuania had cut its dependence to 41% through the opening of the Klapeida LNG terminal. Among the larger states, Slovakia is the most dependent at 70%, with Czechia on 66%. Poland has cut its dependence to 40%, partly through the Swinoujscie LNG terminal. Hungary's dependence is only at 40% as it has benefited from its geographical position at the crossroads of east-west and north-south pipelines. "
intellinews
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Post by birdseye on Feb 23, 2022 10:25:42 GMT
I expect or at least hope Johnson will beef up his rather pathetic response on sanctions this morning. If not I think he could be in for a very uncomfortable PMQs not least from his own back benchers. This from the FT 'Tom Keatinge, an expert in finance and security at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, was dismissive of the UK measures. “All the talk on sanctions so far has meant to be a deterrent and we have turned up to a gunfight with a peashooter.” Jason Hungerford, partner specialising in sanctions at Mayer Brown, agreed. “To say the UK sanctions list is underwhelming is an understatement, he said. He added: “Clamping down on those banks is not going to change the Russian economy a whole lot. The individuals are a bit more interesting — but they have been sanctioned by the US for some time.” Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said: “Promsvyazbank is the largest bank in this list, but this is a bank focused on military financing. It operates with companies operating in the defence industry. Adding it to the UK sanctions list will have very little impact.” Only one of the Banks targeted is even in the top ten banks in Russia. Fine and dandy but what can the UK do that would have a meaningful effect on Putin and not have an even worse effect on us? Our imports from Russia amounted only to 11.6bn in oil and metals and our exports a derisory 4.3bn. I am sure they can survive without Land Rovers but we need the oil in a market that is undersupplied and we need the metals having closed down much of our own production. The Russians do not require loans since they have a sovereign surplus and that they can invest elsewhere. Boris's sanctions are at best a gesture because it all we can do.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 10:26:07 GMT
1/ All that stuff about Putin being a loose cannon-not sure what he is going to do next-is beginning to look like hogwash. 2/ This operation has all the signs of really long term planning, based on the Putin MO of engineered Russophile breakaways . And if you read that article by him I posted here a while back, and listen to the recent speech, its all founded in a deeply thought out rationale and revisionist history, for Ukraine as part of Russia. I really think he has wargamed this, knows exactly what he will do next-and has thought through the sanctions response too. Why would we suppose he mounts a military operation like this without thinking through our response? And thus far he has judged it right. To hear Cleverly claiming yesterday that hitting three oligarchs and a handful of banks which are already sanctioned, was designed to get him to "send his troops to their homes and families" was truly cringe making. Totally agree with 2/ so for 1/ it is more a case of a/ WHEN for b/ WHICH parts of Ukraine (and maybe elsewhere). If the West keeps sending him money and doing nothing more than uncoordinated sanctions (that are 'locking the door after the horse has bolted') then he might conclude a/ 'sooner rather than later' and b/ ALL. Time doesn't work that well for him (see the info on how the West (ie C-E Europe) could stop sending Russia €€billions every month) but that would need: Scholz(sky) + FDP + Green coalition to restart their nuclear power stations and burn more coal (as well as ramping up the global price of LNG and routing that through UK-W.Europe infrastructure) So there is an 'option' that would work and UK and US could put pressure on Germany to achieve that outcome BUT I very much doubt they will as no one in the West (or Japan) want to see LNG prices spike even higher than they are already. Too late for Captain Hindsight but we did discuss 'letting' Putin win the battle (grant permission for NS2) and then ensuring he lost the war (rapidly prioritise 'Energy security' and weaning off the dependence on Russian gas) a while back - even Boris worked it out eventually! Too late for that now so Ukraine is going to be raped and the World (notably China) will be watching as the West keeps sending Putin €billions every month and does nothing of consequence to even deter him. The only things we don't know are WHEN and WHICH parts PS OK above is a bit OTT as there is still the possibility of something like Putin having a heart attack and being replaced by a Gorbachev type but I'll leave the 'thinking with wishes' to others.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 10:38:06 GMT
Scholz(sky) + FDP + Green coalition to restart their nuclear power stations and burn more coal (as well as ramping up the global price of LNG and routing that through UK-W.Europe infrastructure) Too late for that now so Ukraine is going to be raped I can't see how Europe can suddenly manage without Russian gas. Excluding France who backed the right strategy Yes -I'm afraid it looks like that-at least there is nothing we can do to stop it if thats what he plans.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 10:48:35 GMT
"According to Statista, in 2020 the highest gas dependence on Russia in Central Europe was... Important data. Thank you. Link for that data below and of course %s are important but the other things to consider are 'volumes' (eg Germany is obviously a much bigger volume of demand than Latvia - volume data posted previously) and 'routes' with 'capacity' (more complex but the 'maps' for interconnected pipelines and LNG terminals see ** at bottom of this post). That certainly doesn't look good for the old 'buffer' states that are now in NATO (or Finland that is not)). 'Storage' the other factor but FWIU those stocks are low and that is only temporary 'buy time' component that would quickly run out. www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/Pretty sure Putin knows all the above and why he had to wait until gas prices rose before he could cut off Russian dependency on Western banks, $$, etc (ie the 'lock the door after the horse has bolted' sanctions) but knew he had C-E Europe at his mercy. I'm glad more folks are finally realising the key issue so that leads the question of are we going to do something about that (and accept it will hike energy bills even further in the short-term) or just let Putin keep playing his game? Very little UK can do unilaterally but we can 1/ urgently look to our own Energy Security (eg new licences in N.Sea, LNG contracts - other stuff as well WRT to nuclear/renewables and 'Insulate Britain' but that takes longer) 2/ also 'embarrass' those who keep sending Putin €€billions every month (preferably with Biden-US saying the same) However, once again, #2 will mean higher energy prices (although of course we could lock those prices in for UK before we chuck rWorld energy importing nations under the bus - 'tis what the Collective would do ) ** www.researchgate.net/figure/Colour-online-European-gas-pipeline-network-We-show-the-transmission-network-blue_fig1_26720900
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Post by neilj on Feb 23, 2022 11:33:44 GMT
I expect or at least hope Johnson will beef up his rather pathetic response on sanctions this morning. If not I think he could be in for a very uncomfortable PMQs not least from his own back benchers. This from the FT 'Tom Keatinge, an expert in finance and security at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, was dismissive of the UK measures. “All the talk on sanctions so far has meant to be a deterrent and we have turned up to a gunfight with a peashooter.” Jason Hungerford, partner specialising in sanctions at Mayer Brown, agreed. “To say the UK sanctions list is underwhelming is an understatement, he said. He added: “Clamping down on those banks is not going to change the Russian economy a whole lot. The individuals are a bit more interesting — but they have been sanctioned by the US for some time.” Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said: “Promsvyazbank is the largest bank in this list, but this is a bank focused on military financing. It operates with companies operating in the defence industry. Adding it to the UK sanctions list will have very little impact.” Only one of the Banks targeted is even in the top ten banks in Russia. Fine and dandy but what can the UK do that would have a meaningful effect on Putin and not have an even worse effect on us? Our imports from Russia amounted only to 11.6bn in oil and metals and our exports a derisory 4.3bn. I am sure they can survive without Land Rovers but we need the oil in a market that is undersupplied and we need the metals having closed down much of our own production. The Russians do not require loans since they have a sovereign surplus and that they can invest elsewhere. Boris's sanctions are at best a gesture because it all we can do. I think there are several things we could do. Firstly target all the members of the Russian Parliament, 350 people, who voted for the invasion of Ukraine (as the EU has done) Target the 44 oligarchs/officials on the Magnitsky list Put sanctions on every Russian bank Cancel the visas of all Russians with links to Putins regime and deport them Tory party refuse to take any more money from Russian oligarchs with links to Putin. Give the money back they have taken , preferably give it to Ukraine Johnson's response has been poor. Or as Thatcher said, 'weak, weak, weak' The sanctions will effect us as well, but sometimes you gave to take a hit to do the right thing. More so as if we don't at least try to make a stand now our position will be even worse in the future.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 11:55:49 GMT
Fine and dandy but what can the UK do that would have a meaningful effect on Putin and not have an even worse effect on us? Our imports from Russia amounted only to 11.6bn in oil and metals and our exports a derisory 4.3bn. I am sure they can survive without Land Rovers but we need the oil in a market that is undersupplied and we need the metals having closed down much of our own production. The Russians do not require loans since they have a sovereign surplus and that they can invest elsewhere. Boris's sanctions are at best a gesture because it all we can do. I think there are several things we could do. Firstly target all the members of the Russian Parliament, 350 people, who voted for the invasion of Ukraine (as the EU has done) Target the 44 oligarchs/officials on the Magnitsky list Put sanctions on every Russian bank Cancel the visas of all Russians with links to Putins regime and deport them Tory party refuse to take any more money from Russian oligarchs with links to Putin. Give the money back they have taken , preferably give it to Ukraine Johnson's response has been poor. Or as Thatcher said, 'weak, weak, weak' The sanctions will effect us as well, but sometimes you gave to take a hit to do the right thing. More so as if we don't at least try to make a stand now our position will be even worse in the future. Agreed. See article in today's Times - www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unpicking-russias-web-of-uk-interests-vqrv70x25
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Post by pete on Feb 23, 2022 12:52:36 GMT
I feel for the Russian Conservative and Unionist Party. Must be hard sanctioning itself.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:04:34 GMT
Military options (if Biden can put down the white flag and stop telling Putin what we WON'T do). Some/all of: 1/ NATO+ enforced 'no fly' zone 2/ NATO+ 'ships in Sea' 3/ 'Peace keeping' forces in Ukraine All would likely create the excuse to 'escalate' and risk a full blown hot war and then the risk that NATO+ capitulate and will have been seen to capitulate. Also risk of possibly dragging in other countries (eg China might flex some muscle in S.China Sea or perhaps even Taiwan). However, there might well be a short period of time where Putin is allowing Westerners to leave Ukraine and weaken the morale of Ukraine to fight[1] before he moves West (and North). So, if we're going to do anything 'serious', then we need to tell him in advance what we WILL do, not what we won't do (and note I'm not saying we should do the above, just saying we do have options - provided US is willing) Reality: More likely and cynically from US and hence NATO perspective the 'plan' is to just to arm Ukrainians ('Lend-Lease') to do the fighting in order to try to drag the war out for as long as possible and hope Putin gives up first (v.unlikely); and use Ukraine for 'beta testing' new US+ weapons (as Putin is also likely going to do). Keeping Russian forces 'busy' in Ukraine will reduce the likelihood of him of opening up a 2nd front. We also obviously ensure we're defending the line of that possible 2nd front but we're obviously not going to be the aggressor. As per earlier comment WRT to Japan and Asian allies imposing sanctions then that is the '+' in NATO+ and some joint military exercises (eg Exercise Resolute Dragon[3]) will hopefully not have gone unnoticed in Moscow (or Beijing) Above all fairly obvious but it is wrong to say we have no military options and even if Putin thinks we're bluffing then you don't tell him you won't fight as it's not just him listening - it is also the Ukraine people we do expect to fight and likes of China noting that we won't fight. [1] Putin might well be very happy to simply displace the pro-West president and have a puppet in place. The West obviously doesn't want Putin to win a 'quick' war as he'll then have his troops available for a 2nd front. [2] www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3159101/us-japan-military-drills-take-place-amid-escalating-tensions
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:11:28 GMT
@tw I suppose the hope is that if ordinary Russian people see that the only people being killed are Ukrainians, with whom many have an affinity, then they may eventually turn against Putin.
Very cynical, as you say.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:21:01 GMT
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Post by birdseye on Feb 23, 2022 13:35:10 GMT
Fine and dandy but what can the UK do that would have a meaningful effect on Putin and not have an even worse effect on us? Our imports from Russia amounted only to 11.6bn in oil and metals and our exports a derisory 4.3bn. I am sure they can survive without Land Rovers but we need the oil in a market that is undersupplied and we need the metals having closed down much of our own production. The Russians do not require loans since they have a sovereign surplus and that they can invest elsewhere. Boris's sanctions are at best a gesture because it all we can do. I think there are several things we could do. Firstly target all the members of the Russian Parliament, 350 people, who voted for the invasion of Ukraine (as the EU has done) Target the 44 oligarchs/officials on the Magnitsky list Put sanctions on every Russian bank Cancel the visas of all Russians with links to Putins regime and deport them Tory party refuse to take any more money from Russian oligarchs with links to Putin. Give the money back they have taken , preferably give it to Ukraine Johnson's response has been poor. Or as Thatcher said, 'weak, weak, weak' The sanctions will effect us as well, but sometimes you gave to take a hit to do the right thing. More so as if we don't at least try to make a stand now our position will be even worse in the future. There are other things we could do as you point out. We could even stop the import of Caviar. But do you think that anything in your list would bother Putin in the slightest? Of course not - we would be doing it as a gesture, expecting no end effect because we simply dont matter to the Russians or to Putin himself.
As for the energy market and the EU, we need to think through the consequences. If the Germans denied themselves access to Russian gas then they would need to get gas elsewhere. That either would mean bidding up gas prices to the point where poor countries couldnt afford fuel at all, or trying to persuade someone else in the Gulf or wherever to increase supply. But why would the Gulf do that since it would mean less money for their gas since any increase in supply with the Russians maintaining output would cause oversupply and prices to drop. In short, Russia has what the world needs but Russia doesnt need the rest of thew world to the same degree
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:42:41 GMT
@tw I suppose the hope is that if ordinary Russian people see that the only people being killed are Ukrainians, with whom many have an affinity, then they may eventually turn against Putin. Very cynical, as you say. Maybe... eventually. Certainly ways we could speed that up (covered before) or make it longer/worse. I'm not sure how much real 'news' Russians get to see (and note the risk of retaliation if 'the West' bans RT) and Russia has no dependency on the West (so their homes won't freeze). Pretty sure they'll have seen Macron humiliated, Biden say he won't fight and the 'also rans' procession of other Western leaders/politicians kow-towing to Moscow for an audience with Putin or relegated to a humiliation from the fierce tongue of Lavrov (eg our own numpty Truss). One additional thing we need to stop doing is keep asking him to 'play nice' when he clearly has no intention of doing that - but does enjoy making us look weak and stupid. Due to gas prices and C-E Europe dependancy then Putin has, and keeps getting, regular delivery of loads of foreign money which he can use for domestic or military purposes. Tsar Putin hence unlikely to see October Revolution 2.0 unless/until we (the West) stop sending him €€billions every month Cynical for sure, but if Ukraine-Russia war drags out for 5yrs+ and Europe weans itself of Russian gas then maybe come 'Minsk IX' we can put up a new Iron Curtain and 'General Frost' won't be able to attack by threatening to turn the gas off (or increase it's price). Optimistically the 'line' of that curtain might still have Kyiv on it's Western side (or at least West Kyiv on the West side of the Dneiper - similar to West Berlin perhaps but with a river instead of a wall)
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Post by neilj on Feb 23, 2022 13:43:48 GMT
birdseye 'But do you think that anything in your list would bother Putin in the slightest?' Yes, maybe not enough to stop him, but it would hurt him and more importantly his supporters and the Russian economy. We need to ensure he and the Russian people understand and feel it in their pockets that there is a price to pay for his actions
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:52:37 GMT
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Kyiv, Ukraine February 23, 2022. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
VILNIUS, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine deserves European Union candidate status, and Poland and Lithuania will support it in this goal, the presidents of the two countries said in a joint declaration with the Ukrainian president on Wednesday.
Reuters
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:53:26 GMT
"Ukraine has urged citizens living in Russia to leave the country immediately"
BBC
"Up to three million Ukrainians are believed to live in Russia and many people have family in both countries" BBC
!!!!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 13:59:16 GMT
Reposting @laszlo comments on the Issue Specific thread Not sure I agree with this. Nato is a defence organisation so it wouldn't invade Russia. If however Ukraine joined NATO sometime in the future (looks unlikely at present) NATO would defend Ukraine with all the military arsenal of the West , something Putin seems desperate to avoid happening. The current sanctions being imposed seem unlikely to deter Putin, his agenda is not about peace it is about power. Taking back what he believes is rightfully Russia's and rebuilding the Russian empire. Delusions are not uncommon in wars. IMO this threat will go on for a very long time and it will (hopefully) be the Russian people that eventually realise the risks involved. It is such a mess. Whether it was misheard or not - Gorbachev got a promise in 1989. nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-earlyThen there is the Budapest Memorandum (Bush, Yeltsin and Major) on the nuclear weapons in Ukraine (1994). Then Minsk I (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France) autonomy for the two oblasts, and the surrender of the rebels, peace guarding troops at the front (2014). Not kept. The language of the treaty is a mess, and Macron's first meeting with Putin went completely wrong because of that (what are Donetsk and Lugansk). Then Minsk II: autonomy everywhere in Ukraine (2015). Not kept In the occupied territories the persecution of those who disagreed with the Russia-dominated regimes (probably the death of 20-30,000). The Education Act of 2017, and the Language Act of 2021 - banning Russian, Polish and Hungarian in public bodies.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 14:11:25 GMT
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Kyiv, Ukraine February 23, 2022. REUTERS/Umit Bektas VILNIUS, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine deserves European Union candidate status, and Poland and Lithuania will support it in this goal, the presidents of the two countries said in a joint declaration with the Ukrainian president on Wednesday. Reuters How about if Ukraine is fast-tracked for EU membership, but makes a commitment not to join NATO? Possible compromise? It would highlight if Putin is really just interested in stopping expansion of NATO or it's just cover for a land grab.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 14:24:07 GMT
How about if Ukraine is fast-tracked for EU membership, but makes a commitment not to join NATO? Possible compromise? It would highlight if Putin is really just interested in stopping expansion of NATO or it's just cover for a land grab. If you read this :- en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181and this :- www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/putin-russian-president-ukraine-speech-western-diplomats-scramblingI think you might come to the conclusion that there is no compromise which features Ukraine as a sovereign state. He has-in terms-denied its "nationhood". One way or another-either by slow encroachment on territory and strangulation of social and economic life, -or by capture ,removal and replacement of the present government by force-Putin is intent on making certain that he does not have a western facing , functioning democracy called Ukraine on his border. Thats my take for what it is worth.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 14:32:39 GMT
johntel.......actually I hadnt watched the video clip in that Guardian article I just linked you to . Its an exchange with his "spy chief" . Watch it -it is chilling. Reminded me of Sadam.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 14:44:06 GMT
How about if Ukraine is fast-tracked for EU membership, but makes a commitment not to join NATO? Possible compromise? It would highlight if Putin is really just interested in stopping expansion of NATO or it's just cover for a land grab. I think you might come to the conclusion that there is no compromise which features Ukraine as a sovereign state. He has-in terms-denied its "nationhood". One way or another-either by slow encroachment on territory and strangulation of social and economic life, -or by capture ,removal and replacement of the present government by force-Putin is intent on making certain that he does not have a western facing , functioning democracy called Ukraine on his border. Thats my take for what it is worth. It's a question of whether the whole of the current Ukraine is going to get subsumed into Russia, or whether part of it can be saved. I know we've had this conversation before, and you think its 'appeasement' - but I still think that by making a bold offer, the West could draw a line east of Kiev over which it would politically be very difficult for Putin to cross in future. The current 'do nothing' strategy will only have one outcome.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 15:03:48 GMT
It's a question of whether the whole of the current Ukraine is going to get subsumed into Russia, or whether part of it can be saved. I know we've had this conversation before, and you think its 'appeasement' - but I still think that by making a bold offer, the West could draw a line east of Kiev over which it would politically be very difficult for Putin to cross in future. The current 'do nothing' strategy will only have one outcome. As I said -Putin has made his views on the status of Ukraine crystal clear. And what makes you think he would comply with any appeasement agreement?. He broke his word on the Budapest Memorandum in annexing Crimea. Same on Minsk by sending his military into the Donbass. He has played this game in Georgia ( Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and in Moldova ( Transnistria). But what do I know?-try your question on someone who shares a border with him-an Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian-or a Pole. And see how secure they feel with Putin next door.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 15:17:17 GMT
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