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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 15:33:51 GMT
Encouraging news Ukraine-Russia tensions: Russia pulls some troops back from border1. Caution required-see remarks by Stoltenberg. 2. Your remark about playing this game every winter is aposite. Just been listening to an analysis which suggests he intends this to be the new normal-until Ukraine is absorbed into Russia. 1. Guilty of getting a bit too hopeful. Also I should add that even if Putin is/does pull back some troops then with 100k+ he's put more than enough there and pulling back some might set a trap for someone to give him the 'false flag' excuse he is hoping for? 2. Did you see some of the comments from the Putin-Scholz presser. I don't know how Putin keeps a straight face but I'd be very worried if Scholzy believes: ' NordStream2.. purely a commercial project which will strength Europe's energy security' www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-nord-stream-2-would-cement-europes-energy-security-2022-02-15/Although maybe he has his eye on a larger slice of Europe?  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 16:29:35 GMT
1. Caution required-see remarks by Stoltenberg. 2. Your remark about playing this game every winter is aposite. Just been listening to an analysis which suggests he intends this to be the new normal-until Ukraine is absorbed into Russia. 1. Guilty of getting a bit too hopeful. Also I should add that even if Putin is/does pull back some troops then with 100k+ he's put more than enough there and pulling back some might set a trap for someone to give him the 'false flag' excuse he is hoping for? 2. Did you see some of the comments from the Putin-Scholz presser. I don't know how Putin keeps a straight face but I'd be very worried if Scholzy believes: ' NordStream2.. purely a commercial project which will strength Europe's energy security' www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-nord-stream-2-would-cement-europes-energy-security-2022-02-15/Although maybe he has his eye on a larger slice of Europe?  Ukraine sources say two thirds withdrawal min. is required. I fell asleep during Vlad's oration ! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 17:40:17 GMT
Russian Parliament wants to recognise Donbass as independent states. This is the Georgia model he used before.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2022 9:56:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2022 10:44:00 GMT
Shelling reported in the Donbass
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2022 11:19:21 GMT
Shelling reported in the Donbass Both sides blaming each other (which for Putin might be the 'false flag' excuse he's been pushing for) www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-rebels-accuse-govt-forces-mortar-shelling-report-2022-02-17/As per the article and comments you posted you earlier then if Putin is playing the 'long game' then how will 'the West' react to a very geographically limited 'invasion' for 'self defence' of what he will claim are independent regions. Ellwood being somewhat naive WRT to Russia pivot from West to China (which has already been happening) but Putin probably believes a/ 'the West' is far from united in it's view on sanctions and any unity would crack after a period of Russian retaliation to any 'aggressive' new sanctions, b/ sanctions would give him the excuse to make further moves. news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-crisis-west-blinked-over-troop-deployment-and-sanctions-will-push-russia-towards-china-senior-mp-warns-12544002It's a very dangerous game of 'chess'. Putin has his pieces in position and has likely thought several steps ahead with different options depending on 'the West' response (and dare I say we've pretty much shown him our hand/playbook already). I disagree with Ellwood's 'Captain Hindsight' (which IMO would have been blatant provocation to which Putin would have responded) but that is too late now anyway. If Putin intends to play the 'long game' then we should to. That would mean allowing him to 'win' a battle (eg longer-term gas contracts, NordStream2 and agreeing to let him keep some of his territorial gains before he redraws the map even further into Ukraine) while 'the West' ensures we reduce his ability to play the game every Winter. US/UK/etc can put pressure on EC/Germany+co and it can all be done 'behind closed doors' in a grubby back room deal BUT the alternative is a 'tit-4-tat' escalation when 'the West' is not ready and Putin holds the best cards. NB I do not want to 'give in' to Putin on anything but I see the alternatives as likely creating worse outcomes (eg escalation to a 'hot war' that 'the West' doesn't have the will to fight for long and IMO shouldn't get drawn into for a non-NATO member). 'The West' via C-E Europe reliance on Russian gas made it's bed over the last decade and we now have to lie in it.  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2022 13:51:43 GMT
New YG poll.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 13:15:38 GMT
barbara But dictatorships can still last for a long time even in Europe: remember Franco in Spain and Salazar in Portugal; besides them Hitler and Mussolini were fly-by-nights. Putin-23 years Lukashenko-28 years and Putin likely to get at least another 14years[1]: Putin signs law that could keep him in Kremlin until 2036www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-putin-idUSKBN2BS18WHow long will it take for C-E Europe to wean themselves off Russian gas (ie remove a massive piece of leverage that Putin controls) or maybe in la-la-land of naivety they think Russia is going to declare unilateral nuclear disarmament? [1] Maybe he dies before that but he'd almost certainly be replaced 'like for like' ![]() |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 14:14:45 GMT
Just seen a Press conference from Belarus with Vlad and Lukashenko . They told the Press-This is all just normal military manoevres . Why was anyone excited about it ?. It was no threat to anyone.
You have to laugh.
Though I realise its not funny from Ukraine.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 16:22:36 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 18, 2022 17:46:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2022 18:22:38 GMT
Well if the Guardian is reporting it then it must be true  |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 19, 2022 10:32:15 GMT
In fairness to Putin he has managed to unite Europe and the USA in opposition to him
He may have got with it under Trump, but he will pay a heavy price if he does invade now.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2022 11:44:20 GMT
Biden giving Putin his playbook again?  Ukraine conflict: Biden says he is convinced Putin has decided to invade.. the capital Kyiv would be targetedwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60436938So if Putin doesn't target Kyiv but just slices off another chunk of Ukraine short of Kyiv then what? 1. West: Sanctions (and TBC if 'the West' is united on those and how long that unity would hold) 2. Putin: Retaliation to sanctions (all of the options within 'hybrid' warfare) 3. West:  It's #3 that concerns me and I expect Putin has thought that far ahead and the only 'pact' he needs to agree is with himself. Maybe Putin cracks and folds but if he does not then how long will 'the West' be able to maintain unity? I'm not going to make a prediction but as per previous posts then Putin can take it as far he wants this year, get as much as he feels he wants to and then 'retreat' a bit (hoping to lock-in another chunk of teritorial gains with a 'Munich' agreement?) and come back again next Winter for more. If C-E Europe (notably Germany but several others as well) hadn't made themselves so reliant on Russian gas then he'd have never had that 'hybrid warfare' leverage. See Russian bear holding Ukraine rabbit: ' Of course I'm hungry, I've been hibernating since 1991!' theweek.com/cartoons/428783/political-cartoon-russia-ukraine-conflict |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2022 14:25:23 GMT
Two articles from DW that put some numbers and analysis on the 'power politics' role of gas supplies: Why the EU needs Russian energy giant Gazpromwww.dw.com/en/why-the-eu-needs-russian-energy-giant-gazprom/a-60674774Russian gas boost fuels Moscow's China pivotwww.dw.com/en/russian-gas-boost-fuels-moscows-china-pivot/a-60393843So if it gets the point where Putin threatens to turn off the gas to EU then he's thinking a bit ahead of who he can sell Russian gas to (although it will take many years then any view that Nato-EU can 'bankrupt' Putin/Russia is for the birds). Note China are a lot more ruthless in how they play 'power politics' than 'the West'. Gazprom managed to get European energy companies to pay for 50% of NordStream2 but are no facing a huge spike in prices as they've now decided it was a bad idea. China? There was no offer of Chinese loans (for the infrastructure to supply China), but a guarantee to purchase up to 38 bcm per year of gas under an agreed pricing formula (ie China locked in cheap gas prices for 30yrs) IF Putin does use 'interruptions' of gas supplies to Europe as part of 'hybrid' warfare strategy then China will be smiling as Russia will become even more reliant on exporting to their own remaining 'friend'. It won't be Germany getting cheap Russian gas for a competitive advantage via NS2, it will be China via Power of Siberia2 and the Polar Silk Road. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 19, 2022 15:14:15 GMT
In fairness to Putin he has managed to unite Europe and the USA in opposition to him He may have got with it under Trump, but he will pay a heavy price if he does invade now. , well I guess it will come down to Putin's calculation of whether the price to be paid outweighs the benefits. He will have read his Clausewitz and aware of the notion/risk of going beyond the optimal point of victory etc, but he isn't infallible and could make a massive miscalculation. If we get past the next 2-3 days without a significant engagement kicking off the risk of invasion will reduce substantially, until Putin attempts his next probe.
In many ways it’s all a bit male ego bullshit driven, and boys playing with their toys stuff. Unfortunately real people are paying the cost for this. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 19, 2022 21:49:08 GMT
I can't help feeling that whatever happens from here on that the US/UK have invented a new meaning of the word "imminent". It used to mean 'about to happen', but now apparently extends over weeks and months. I understand it currently seems to mean 'next week'.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 7:24:34 GMT
I can't help feeling that whatever happens from here on that the US/UK have invented a new meaning of the word "imminent". It used to mean 'about to happen', but now apparently extends over weeks and months. I understand it currently seems to mean 'next week'. I think you may misunderstand the strategy. After being caught cold by Crimea, the West is putting Intel on his military deployments on national news broadcasts and generally alerting everyone to his capability and false flag triggers..If that looks like overenthusiasm so be it. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 9:42:20 GMT
I can't help feeling that whatever happens from here on that the US/UK have invented a new meaning of the word "imminent". It used to mean 'about to happen', but now apparently extends over weeks and months. I understand it currently seems to mean 'next week'. I think you may misunderstand the strategy. After being caught cold by Crimea, the West is putting Intel on his military deployments on national news broadcasts and generally alerting everyone to his capability and false flag triggers..If that looks like overenthusiasm so be it. Could double the adjectives up: 'permanent and imminent' threat. Although that might confuse people. Permanent: existing perpetually; everlasting, especially without significant change[1]. Imminent: likely to occur at any moment; impending I have no issue with 'awareness' being raised, my concerns are the resolve and unity of the West a few chess moves after Putin makes his next move (and he is control of the timing of that with 100k+ troops on the border, hence 'imminent') [1] Could have picked 'ongoing' (since 2014 and arguably earlier) instead of permanent but IMO 'permanent' with the addition of the criteria of ' without significant change' captures the situation better. I do hope 'the West' also urgently start to address the need for 'significant change' (eg weaning themselves off Russian gas - not so 'cheap' as it turned out - asap) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 9:52:54 GMT
I don't really go in for 'conspiracy theories' but FWIW then it's the last day of the Winter Olympics today which means that from tomorrow China will no longer have that objection (for those that believe that China has considerable influence over Russia and had asked Putin to wait until China's games were over before Putin could continue with his game) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics_closing_ceremony |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 11:28:47 GMT
I think you may misunderstand the strategy. After being caught cold by Crimea, the West is putting Intel on his military deployments on national news broadcasts and generally alerting everyone to his capability and false flag triggers..If that looks like overenthusiasm so be it. Could double the adjectives up: 'permanent and imminent' threat. Although that might confuse people. Permanent: existing perpetually; everlasting, especially without significant change[1]. Imminent: likely to occur at any moment; impending I have no issue with 'awareness' being raised, my concerns are the resolve and unity of the West a few chess moves after Putin makes his next move (and he is control of the timing of that with 100k+ troops on the border, hence 'imminent') [1] Could have picked 'ongoing' (since 2014 and arguably earlier) instead of permanent but IMO 'permanent' with the addition of the criteria of ' without significant change' captures the situation better. I do hope 'the West' also urgently start to address the need for 'significant change' (eg weaning themselves off Russian gas - not so 'cheap' as it turned out - asap) Yes-its crying wolf-but with an actual wolf. Agree with you about unity of the west. Also the degree to which incursion -(bit by bit consumption)-will be tolerated. and Truss is right about the Balkans imo :- www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-balkans-eu-nato-b2017429.htmlwww.rferl.org/a/bosnia-russia-dodik-putin/31591167.htmlThis is the Putin MO-enabling/encouraging/creating Russophile breakaway/autonomy movements which become Russian military enclaves. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 11:44:55 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 12:00:36 GMT
I have no issue with 'awareness' being raised, my concerns are the resolve and unity of the West a few chess moves after Putin makes his next move (and he is control of the timing of that with 100k+ troops on the border, hence 'imminent') Yes-its crying wolf-but with an actual wolf. Agree with you about unity of the west. Also the degree to which incursion -(bit by bit consumption)-will be tolerated. and Truss is right about the Balkans imo :- www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-balkans-eu-nato-b2017429.htmlwww.rferl.org/a/bosnia-russia-dodik-putin/31591167.htmlThis is the Putin MO-enabling/encouraging/creating Russophile breakaway/autonomy movements which become Russian military enclaves. Actual wolf or a bear who came out of hibernation in 2014 but was waiting for the opportunity to see how much further he can expand his territory. Agree his MO and note China is similar but uses somewhat different tactics
China was also the source of $153 billion in cumulative loans to African countries between 2000 and 2019.thediplomat.com/2021/08/chinas-presence-in-africa-is-at-heart-political/and once a country becomes dependent on China $$ investment then you have power over them www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/sri-lanka-appeals-to-china-to-ease-debt-burden-amid-economic-crisisBack to Russia and unity of the 'West' then, as we've discussed before, Russia will probe for 'weak links' so you'll see a lot of this kind of thing: Russia ready to increase gas supplies to Italy, ambassador sayswww.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ready-increase-gas-supplies-italy-ambassador-says-2022-02-17/Faced with higher energy prices creating cost of living crisis then I'm not in the slightest bit surprised about Putin's timing and how he'll use 'hybrid warfare' to test the unity and resolve of the West. He must be loving the flow of different leaders going to Moscow, he just needs a few of them to take the short-term option (as 'West(ern)' politicians often do) and the unity dissolves. NB I very much hope the unity does not dissolve and Putin is kept in his box and in that regard then I still think part of the better short-term solution will have to be feeding the bear some €s through the cage (ie turn on NS2, Germany+co then have to lock in medium-term gas contracts at fairly high prices and give Putin a short-term win (which I hope he takes). Then use the next few years to remove that piece of leverage from his 'hybrid warfare' arsenal and start thinking a few moves ahead in the game he, and China, are playing. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 12:15:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 12:17:18 GMT
Back to Russia and unity of the 'West' then, as we've discussed before, Russia will probe for 'weak links' so you'll see a lot of this kind of thing: Russia ready to increase gas supplies to Italy, ambassador sayswww.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ready-increase-gas-supplies-italy-ambassador-says-2022-02-17/Faced with higher energy prices creating cost of living crisis then I'm not in the slightest bit surprised about Putin's timing and how he'll use 'hybrid warfare' to test the unity and resolve of the West. He must be loving the flow of different leaders going to Moscow, he just needs a few of them to take the short-term option (as 'West(ern)' politicians often do) and the unity dissolves. NB I very much hope the unity does not dissolve and Putin is kept in his box and in that regard then I still think part of the better short-term solution will have to be feeding the bear some €s through the cage (ie turn on NS2, Germany+co then have to lock in medium-term gas contracts at fairly high prices and give Putin a short-term win (which I hope he takes). Then use the next few years to remove that piece of leverage from his 'hybrid warfare' arsenal and start thinking a few moves ahead in the game he, and China, are playing. THanks. Yes-divide & conquer. Actually I begin to doubt whether Ukraine can/will be "saved" by the West as a sovereign entity. Putin has the capacity to administer death by a thousand cuts-and that includes covert internal disruption of an admittedly shaky democracy. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 14:31:00 GMT
Actually I begin to doubt whether Ukraine can/will be "saved" by the West as a sovereign entity. Putin has the capacity to administer death by a thousand cuts-and that includes covert internal disruption of an admittedly shaky democracy. Ukraine's borders and 'ownership'/control by various different Empires/countries has changed a lot over the centuries and the version of Ukraine 1991-2014 no longer exists. That creates a problem if NATO formerly takes Ukraine under their umbrella. Does NATO then accept the 2014 borders? What about Donetsk and Luhansk which Russia claims are now Independent nations (quite clearly under Russian 'control')? [1] It suits Putin to have 'disputed territories' and slice pieces off piecemeal but at some point NATO will have to draw a line or accept that anywhere that is not in NATO or part of some other treaty[2] is 'fair game'. [1] www.dw.com/en/russian-duma-asks-putin-to-recognize-ukrainian-regions-as-independent/a-60783596[2] Lots of various treaties that cover parts of Asia but a lot of 'disputed territory' in that theatre as well (so China will watching the European situation very closely). Taiwan's US/West 'protection' is a bit of a 'vague' and most pundits and Western politicians have noted that 'the World is watching'. |
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Post by birdseye on Feb 20, 2022 16:13:52 GMT
Hi colin - I read it a few months ago (a lot of it is reiterations of analysis/themes that date back to the 40's - half my PhD essentially related to Russian/Soviet foreign policy).  But doesnt Putin's approach date back to the 40s or maybe even earlier to the "spheres of influence" of imperial days. Certainly he has bemoaned the demise of the Empire of Evil and has started to re-instate it in Georgia, Crimea and the other areas he has already invaded. He knows that NATO isnt in any sense a threat . What he is now doing is pure power politics and like it or not he has plenty of power through oil and gas to make life difficult for the free world.
Sanctions are just a gesture for a country as big as Russia is and under such despotic control, even if they can be comprehensively applied. I cant think of anywhere where sanctions have worked when used. North Korea is still a problem despite hard sanctions, and sanctions against the likes of Rhodesia in its day were simply bent by countries like France who had commercial interests. And dont forget China who have a real interest in causing problems for the USA.
At the risk of being boringly repetitive I see no British interest here. Best keep quiet and make money out of whatever we can incuding laundering Russian dirty money.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 17:57:29 GMT
Just very briefly. After a 2-hour phone conversation Macron and Putin agreed on restoring ceasefire and on establishing a 3-party group on observing the events and processes. The two foreign secretaries will also meet shortly. (Just because BBC forgot to report it on their website, just as the leak from Credit Suisse - I know it is Sunday). Well let's see how long that lasts. I hope Putin listens to Macron and sticks to his word but forgive me for thinking Macron might have just given Putin the pole for his 'false flag' (ie Putin can claim it wasn't him that broke the 'new' ceasefire and that he's now 'had enough' and the only way to achieve peace is via knocking out those attacking what he claims are 'independent nations') NB Not a prediction but I'd bet on the 'False Flag' excuse Putin is going to make up v Putin listening to Macron |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 19:16:02 GMT
Just very briefly. After a 2-hour phone conversation Macron and Putin agreed on restoring ceasefire and on establishing a 3-party group on observing the events and processes. The two foreign secretaries will also meet shortly. (Just because BBC forgot to report it on their website, just as the leak from Credit Suisse - I know it is Sunday). Well let's see how long that lasts. I hope Putin listens to Macron and sticks to his word but forgive me for thinking Macron might have just given Putin the pole for his 'false flag' (ie Putin can claim it wasn't him that broke the 'new' ceasefire and that he's now 'had enough' and the only way to achieve peace is via knocking out those attacking what he claims are 'independent nations') NB Not a prediction but I'd bet on the 'False Flag' excuse Putin is going to make up v Putin listening to Macron I really don't know. I put it out only because of the lack of reporting (it was from the speaker of Elisee Palace). I also mentioned the speech of the Ukrainian president. All these can be just a show, but also a way of having excuses for de-escalation. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 19:21:32 GMT
Hi colin - I read it a few months ago (a lot of it is reiterations of analysis/themes that date back to the 40's - half my PhD essentially related to Russian/Soviet foreign policy). But doesnt Putin's approach date back to the 40s or maybe even earlier to the "spheres of influence" of imperial days. Certainly he has bemoaned the demise of the Empire of Evil and has started to re-instate it in Georgia, Crimea and the other areas he has already invaded. He knows that NATO isnt in any sense a threat . What he is now doing is pure power politics and like it or not he has plenty of power through oil and gas to make life difficult for the free world.
Sanctions are just a gesture for a country as big as Russia is and under such despotic control, even if they can be comprehensively applied. I cant think of anywhere where sanctions have worked when used. North Korea is still a problem despite hard sanctions, and sanctions against the likes of Rhodesia in its day were simply bent by countries like France who had commercial interests. And dont forget China who have a real interest in causing problems for the USA.
At the risk of being boringly repetitive I see no British interest here. Best keep quiet and make money out of whatever we can incuding laundering Russian dirty money.
Probably it is not more than a superficial historic parallel (so, I don't mean it as an explanation). The decision of moving missiles to Cuba was officially because of the NATO missile base in Turkey (it was removed when the SU removed the Cuban one). |
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