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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 13, 2022 19:48:02 GMT
B-I quote from the WIKI on Budapest :- "After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, Canada,[7] France, Germany, Italy, Japan,[8] the UK[9] and US[10][11] stated that Russian involvement was a breach of its Budapest Memorandum obligations to Ukraine which had been transmitted to the United Nations under the signature of Sergey Lavrov and others,[12] and in violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. On 4 March 2014, the Russian president Vladimir Putin replied to a question on the violation of the Budapest Memorandum, describing the current Ukrainian situation as a revolution: "a new state arises, but with this state and in respect to this state, we have not signed any obligatory documents." Hi colin . The Memorandum does not obligate signatories to come to Ukraine's defence or really take any significant action if the other signatories do not act in accordance with it. (If I recall its flaws were apparent and discussed at the time).
This is what the Memorandum states (not taken from Wiki),
1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE
[Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe]Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty
and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE February 21, 2014 EIR International 35
Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and
thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to
provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine,
their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or
dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.
6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation
arises which raises a question concerning these commitment |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 13, 2022 19:57:04 GMT
Lots of RoC handwringing about Ukraine and how we solve a proble like Putin. Hi alec , I'm anything but ROC, but see Putin and how he is acting as a serious threat and one of the major factors undermining the stability of the international system and no friend of democratic systems or individual freedoms. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 13, 2022 20:10:39 GMT
colin have you read Russian Foreign Policy, The Return of Great Power Politics by Jeffrey Mankoff? It's a few years out of date now but still fairly relevant.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 20:18:44 GMT
1/ Did you see their Swedish Ambassador's view of Western sanctions ? 2/ More seriously-one wonders if anything troubles him at all about our response For 1 then there is a chunk of ' well he would say wouldn't he' (ie he hopes to spread division within any 'united' response and for some countries to apply watered down/no sanctions, plus some 'playing to his home audience') More worrying is that he CAN say that (ie for #2 then in the short-term I doubt very much does trouble him). He's had time to plan his moves and 'game' the scenarios. I expect you saw: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vladimir-putins-superyacht-the-graceful-leaves-germany-before-sanctions-can-bite-2jz3nns2bSo back to #1 then IMO he can play a longer game than EU(rope) can, expects US will get 'bored', etc so even if there was a very strong united response then how long before the cracks appear and some countries (faced with black outs, etc due to having their Russian gas cut off) lose their nerve and back down? Much longer term then if he overdoes it then that might backfire and hence the 'slowly, slowly' approach seems more likely IMO (and Biden pretty much said it would be all right with him as well) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 21:12:51 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Thanks for the text from Budapest. I realise that the parties did not commit to go to war with one another if one failed to uphold their mutual guarantee of Ukrainian post Soviet security. But it was a Guarantee. One which Putin manifestly never intended to keep. It was part of his long term strategy imo. I think you are right to say "he is acting as a serious threat and one of the major factors undermining the stability of the international system". He is running rings round us at present. Thanks for the book recommendation. To be honest it doesn't look like my cup of tea.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 21:25:09 GMT
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Post by alec on Feb 13, 2022 22:57:45 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - "I'm anything but ROC, but see Putin and how he is acting as a serious threat and one of the major factors undermining the stability of the international system and no friend of democratic systems or individual freedoms." Me too. As with the Chinese, I've been saying this for years on here and elsewhere. The question I have is not about Putin, but about why Conservative governments have been so keen to accomodate Russian money in London, and why they have been so keen to avoid restricting access to the UK for super wealthy friends of the Kremlin. That's why I talk about the RoC handwringing on here (and I note that colin 'liked' your post). I was asking why these posters seemed to be so relaxed about the governments they support being so accomodating towards Russia, China etc. We even let China into our nuclear industry FFS. What kind of idiot does that?
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Post by alec on Feb 13, 2022 23:13:32 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - thankfully, it's not just me saying this - "We know the truth - you can have freedom or corruption, not both." So far, the Conservative UK has chosen corruption.
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Post by moby on Feb 14, 2022 6:35:55 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 9:13:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 9:26:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 9:52:22 GMT
Those articles cover most of it. The official info: Previous: www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-sanctions-on-russiaNew powers: www.gov.uk/government/news/strengthened-uk-russian-sanctions-legislation-comes-into-forceNB There is a difference between having the powers and using them but it looks like we'll be 'legally' ready (I can't speak for 'others' or the messy situation of EC imposed rules v EU nations) On the SWIFT issue then that would have very serious repercussions hitting lots of countries and it would be impossible to predict whether or not that set off a chain of dominoes and how they would fall. Clearly anyone who has lent Russia money wouldn't want to impose that and so in that regard I think it would hurt 'the West' (mostly EU nations (govts as well as banks), less so UK and v.little for US) but do little to 'net' hurt Putin (some short-term gains for Putin in € terms but also in being able to raise the ante). IMO Putin can player the medium-long game better than a coalition of US/NATO/EU/UK so on balance I wouldn't exclude Russia from SWIFT and as per the link you provided and other sources then it looks like that is off the menu. However, they should have known that in advance so making an idle threat and then pulling it looks weak and divided - something Putin probably noticed! Don't bark unless you've agreed that you will bite! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 14, 2022 9:53:14 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - thankfully, it's not just me saying this - "We know the truth - you can have freedom or corruption, not both." So far, the Conservative UK has chosen corruption. , in my original post to colin , I mentioned the point that Britain as well as Germany may be 'compromised'. There are plenty of ROC people as well as our security services who have long held concerns about Russian 'penetration' of aspects of British society and the flow of funds through London (as is the case in the US as well). The Russian's are very adept at exploiting and manipulating aspects of open societies. Britain's traditional relaxed approach to financial regulation and foreign ownership of assets enables this, but it’s not just 'dirty' Russian money moving through London. This negative side of our openness is the flip side to the positives our open society brings, especially in relation to soft power
Be in no doubt that Moscow sees the UK as firmly in the US camp and as an adversary. Any influence or leverage Moscow may have over elements of the UK elite, pales into insignificance compared to the influence the US has and our connections to them.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 14:21:30 GMT
colin Just FWIW then there has been quite a lot of progress on AML fines recently from various watchdogs/regulators. Anti-money laundering fines surge as watchdogs impose tougher penaltieswww.ft.com/content/7144ff53-5a17-477b-ab75-4f4a88b94fd2That is probably little more than a slight melting on the tip of the iceberg with banks rather than the 'source' taking the hit (but that is about as much as you can do when it is 'foreign' money looking for a laundromat). Note an error in their piece. 'The scale of money laundering worldwide has prompted new laws, such as the UK’s Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act, which came into force after Brexit. The UK National Crime Agency estimates it costs the country (might be at the scale of) more than £100bn every year'See: www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/what-we-do/crime-threats/money-laundering-and-illicit-financeassets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/564464/CF_Bill_-_Factsheet_1_-_The_Bill.pdfCould probably raise quite a lot more ££ from 'fines' and seized assets if we crack down harder. Freeze is not 'seize' but that links back to you'd rather folks like Russia had 'assets' in your polity than your banks/partially state owned businesses having Russian 'liabilities' (IMO of course!). UK FCA are of course independent but with some new laws and 'asked' to enforce them harder then could be some political as well as financial gain to UK if we're part of a 'coalition of the willing' on increased sanctions (and note it does require most countries to have the same laws and enforce them, otherwise the laundromats simply switch home)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 14:21:30 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter@" The Russian's are very adept at exploiting and manipulating aspects of open societies." absolutely You might be interested in this long and detailed assessment by Chatham House of how to respond to Russia. Its worth getting through to the final conclusion. www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-deters-russia/04-outlook-and-policy-recommendationsOn my way to that I spotted this :- "Russia has a consistent history of seeking stability and security through expanding the geographical area under its occupation or control, based at least in part on a drive to reduce potential threats by pushing them further away. This desire for a cordon sanitaire under Russian control remains strong, and was an important contributing factor to Russia’s decision to seize Crimea and undertake a military campaign in eastern Ukraine in order to avert the perceived danger of Ukraine escaping the Russian sphere of dominance – a move Russia later capitalized on by transforming Crimea into a militarized outpost protecting its Black Sea approaches in a mirror image to the role of Kaliningrad on the Baltic." This idea of the Russian controlled buffer zone emerged from the conflict in Georgia too. And it leads me to hope desperately that Ukraine does not, or is not persuaded to ,forgo its right to apply for NATO membership. I believe that Putin wants NATO out of there so that his ongoing incursions into Ukraine will build yet another militarised buffer zone in Eastern UKraine without triggering a NATO response.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 14:40:38 GMT
1. This desire for a cordon sanitaire under Russian control remains strong 2. And it leads me to hope desperately that Ukraine does not, or is not persuaded to ,forgo its right to apply for NATO membership. I believe that Putin wants NATO out of there so that his ongoing incursions into Ukraine will build yet another militarised buffer zone in Eastern UKraine without triggering a NATO response. I expect everyone would agree #1 is an 'aim' for Putin/Russia but as I've said many times in the past then EU and NATO are at least partially responsible for taking in what were formerly 'buffer zone' countries into their 'Empires'. That woke up the sleeping bear. EU has a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine so I can appreciate Russia was feeling threatened and decided to draw a line and start pushing back. That of course in no way whatsoever justifies Putin's response and independent sovereign nations should be allowed to choose their own destiny but EU and NATO kept pushing Eastwards when the bear was asleep so IMO should not be surprised that a grumpy bear has finally woken up and decided to push back. Every previous attempt[1] to rebuild the 'Holy Roman Empire' has failed for the same reason - do those in Brussels, Berlin and Paris never learn the lessons of history? [1] Quibble on Napoleon (his 2nd effort was stopped pretty quick by the Seventh coalition at Waterloo in 1815 but the Russian Campaign in 1812 was fatal to his efforts to rebuild the Holy Roman Empire) |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 14, 2022 14:41:11 GMT
Hi colin - I read it a few months ago (a lot of it is reiterations of analysis/themes that date back to the 40's - half my PhD essentially related to Russian/Soviet foreign policy). 
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 15:22:43 GMT
Hi colin - I read it a few months ago (a lot of it is reiterations of analysis/themes that date back to the 40's - half my PhD essentially related to Russian/Soviet foreign policy).  If you did you will know that it is based on 21st Century case studies, and relates to post USSR Russia. Anyway thanks for the tip-I wont bother you with reading matter on this subject. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 15:26:42 GMT
@tw
Putin only feels "threatened" because he doesn't want liberal democracies on his border.
I doubt the Poles or Baltic States would characterise their NATO membership as "pushing eastwards". I think they would say its to stop Putin pushing westwards.And when it comes to Russian foreign policy they have some experience to draw on.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 16:17:11 GMT
@tw Putin only feels "threatened" because he doesn't want liberal democracies on his border. I doubt the Poles or Baltic States would characterise their NATO membership as "pushing eastwards". I think they would say its to stop Putin pushing westwards.And when it comes to Russian foreign policy they have some experience to draw on. I did specifically say: ' That of course in no way whatsoever justifies Putin's response and independent sovereign nations should be allowed to choose their own destiny'However, 'Eastward' it is geographic fact. NATO expansion since 1999 1999: Czechia, Hungary, Poland 2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia 2009: Albania, Croatia 2017: Montenegro 2020: N.Macedonia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Founding_and_changes_in_membershipThose are all 'Eastward' from the original members and additions made up to 1999. I could go through the history of EEC expansion 'Eastward' starting with German reunification in 1990 along with it's expansion in 'mandate' from various treaties starting with Maastricht that have made it an 'ever closer union', most of which is under NATO's protection. Some 'timing' differences (eg Ukraine has a DCFTA deal with EU but hadn't (yet?) joined NATO) I can appreciate why those countries wanted to join (either the geo-political 'push' away from Russia or the economic benefits of joining the 'West' (new member bribes to 'level-up', etc)) but NATO is still very much a US+ group so if US decide to take down their 'umbrella' then EU should have thought about that and upped their own capabilities for self-defence to protect their 'Holy Roman Empire v5' (or v4 if you're German) I don't want UK drawn into a Russia-EU war, fighting over whose Empire should control the buffer states. I doubt many Americans put that as high priority either (see YG polling previously posted) Once again, ' That of course in no way whatsoever justifies Putin's response and independent sovereign nations should be allowed to choose their own destiny but EU and NATO kept pushing Eastwards when the bear was asleep so IMO should not be surprised that a grumpy bear has finally woken up and decided to push back' |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 19:21:12 GMT
@tw "I don't want UK drawn into a Russia-EU war" No, we'll be fully tied up with our very own war with Mauritius over the Chagos archipelago  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 14, 2022 19:29:14 GMT
Hi colin - I read it a few months ago (a lot of it is reiterations of analysis/themes that date back to the 40's - half my PhD essentially related to Russian/Soviet foreign policy). If you did you will know that it is based on 21st Century case studies, and relates to post USSR Russia. Anyway thanks for the tip-I wont bother you with reading matter on this subject. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 20:24:35 GMT
@tw "I don't want UK drawn into a Russia-EU war" No, we'll be fully tied up with our very own war with Mauritius over the Chagos archipelago  I'm a 'Little Englander'. I note Chagos archipelago includes Diego Garcia (I had heard of the latter, had to google the former). IMO it would be a stretch to say that was a 'joint' UK/US military base and my 30sec opinion (taxi is late) is that US should negotiate a lease with Mauritius (to take over when the current lease expires) for part of what is their country. According to google we bought it for £600k (not sure who took the hit on the £3million original price) so even adjusting for inflation then 'flip it' for a profit to the yanks (who would then 'own' it on lease from Mauritius) as getting a 'quid ($14million) pro quo' on military hardware every now and then is 'dodgy' (IMO as a 'Little Englander' - which can you google if it's a new term) Of course Boris and CON HMG aren't going to do that and maybe Boris sees Chagos archipelago as his Falklands. Pretty sure we would win (although as per Suez then I wouldn't trust the yanks who might decide to cut a side deal behind our backs)  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 22:10:46 GMT
Actual Chagos could be a great opportunity for Boris to be Mr Nice Guy and salvage some reputation if he plays it right. Somehow I don't think he will though.
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Post by birdseye on Feb 15, 2022 9:20:20 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - "I'm anything but ROC, but see Putin and how he is acting as a serious threat and one of the major factors undermining the stability of the international system and no friend of democratic systems or individual freedoms." Me too. As with the Chinese, I've been saying this for years on here and elsewhere. The question I have is not about Putin, but about why Conservative governments have been so keen to accomodate Russian money in London, and why they have been so keen to avoid restricting access to the UK for super wealthy friends of the Kremlin. That's why I talk about the RoC handwringing on here (and I note that colin 'liked' your post). I was asking why these posters seemed to be so relaxed about the governments they support being so accomodating towards Russia, China etc. We even let China into our nuclear industry FFS. What kind of idiot does that? The answer to your last question is of course, the sort of idiot that de-industrialises and thinks that its future can be based on services and import dependance. Worth remembering that our survival in WW2 wasnt based on heroics or military strategy but that in every area we outproduced the Germans. Strength comes from the factory door not from the Amazon door.
But leaving that aside, it seems to me that the Swiss have done very well thank you from supplying everyone who wants to buy and banking for everyone who wants to stash some money, dirty or not. In the absence of empire and recognising that we arent of any global importance, why do we not do the same. Why the posturing when the NHS is 15 times the size of our army and we have more admirals than ships. Its both sad and laughable.
It would be charitable and understandable if the current UK posturing was simply to bury partygate, but I suspect its really about the blimps we have in our politics both ROC and LOC. Bit like the old peer living in a delapidated mansion he cannot afford to heat being driven around in a rusty 50 year old Rolls by his 70 year old retainer. To the manor born etc.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 9:47:59 GMT
A brilliant and chilling piece in the T today by William Hague. He writes as though he is Putin. A few quotations :- "The UN will do nothing. Ukraine will be returned to “partnership with Russia”, as I delicately put it in my essay. It will take time to turn Ukrainians back into Russians, but we have been doing that for a thousand years and we are getting very good at it. How long will the West hold together? It will be more a crisis for them than for me. No one can freeze out Russia. There is no way of pursuing nuclear arms control without us, or passing any UN resolutions, or getting enough gas. The EU is only as strong as its weakest links; why does anyone think I have spent so much attention on the Hungarians and others? Western Europeans are dependent for defence on America, for energy on Russia and for trade on China, while fantasising about “autonomy”. They think power comes from being interdependent but setting the rules for everyone. I think it comes from making others dependent and following my own rules. They think like traders; I think like an intelligence officer. Then there are the Americans. Trump will soon be back in the game, confusing them again. He will want deals with Russia. Their unity will not hold. They read hundreds of millions of items on social media that make them hate each other, many of which were written in Russia. Sometimes I have to laugh. What is the point of physical strength if you leave your mind open to hostile influence? " The bit about social media echos Dowden's speech.( and the Pope's !) The essay he quotes is this one :- en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 10:58:04 GMT
A brilliant and chilling piece in the T today by William Hague. He writes as though he is Putin. Chilling indeed but hard to find any fault in that logic and it is similar to comments made on this forum We could discuss who Putin considers to be NATO or EU's weakest link and I note the comment WRT to Hungary. Poland are also causing internal issues for EU (but are very much anti-Russia). Try putting ' Germany is nato weakest link' into google and see how many hits that gets: US press: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/21/germany-has-become-weak-link-natos-line-defense/www.wsj.com/articles/putin-targets-germany-natos-weakest-link-ukraine-russia-crisis-invasion-aggression-energy-stortage-gas-oil-11644175038Even the Irish press have given Germany a mention www.rte.ie/news/2022/0129/1276541-germany-ukraine-analysis/Germany is 'big' so likes of Austria (see post from y'day) have less value to Putin as a weak link but he is pressing the weak flesh in every weak country and sowing division where he can. UK and US have weakness as well of course (no one is ignoring or 'forgetting' that). US's greatest weakness is it's 'attention span' and being in near constant election cycles - Putin et al[1] can 'wait out' any US president. UK's weakness, now Corbyn is never going to be PM, is IMO more of an historic case of Russian influence. So beyond the indirect issue of higher energy prices if it all kicks off in Ukraine then Putin's response to UK is to belittle us in the 'eyes of the World' (something Truss makes easy for him but something the Guardianistas lap up) [1] Same for China and even Taliban (Afghanistan), who played the same approach against Russia (1979-89) which is dark irony given some in the 'West' are now mentioning that to Russia for what would happen in Ukraine. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 13:28:23 GMT
Encouraging news Ukraine-Russia tensions: Russia pulls some troops back from borderwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60386141Perhaps it was just 'drills' and the West did get hysterical? If more troops leave the area in the coming days then a huge 'phew'. What Putin will receive in any 'back room' deals is TBC. Maybe nothing, maybe German+EC approval for NordStream2 (and nowt US can directly do about that)? If the latter then that will probably benefit to UK+ EU businesses and consumers via a drop in gas prices BUT having seen the bear's teeth then that will be no excuse for more 'dither and delay'. To prevent Putin playing the same game every Winter then C-E Europe needs to wean itself off Russian gas asap and if that means German businesses have to pay a higher price for Energy security then I hope their politicians explain that Energy security trumps trying to get a competitive advantage via cheap Russian gas (which has been seen to be very expensive gas in a broader context). |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 13:37:18 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 14:41:20 GMT
Encouraging news Ukraine-Russia tensions: Russia pulls some troops back from borderwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60386141Perhaps it was just 'drills' and the West did get hysterical? If more troops leave the area in the coming days then a huge 'phew'. What Putin will receive in any 'back room' deals is TBC. Maybe nothing, maybe German+EC approval for NordStream2 (and nowt US can directly do about that)? If the latter then that will probably benefit to UK+ EU businesses and consumers via a drop in gas prices BUT having seen the bear's teeth then that will be no excuse for more 'dither and delay'. To prevent Putin playing the same game every Winter then C-E Europe needs to wean itself off Russian gas asap and if that means German businesses have to pay a higher price for Energy security then I hope their politicians explain that Energy security trumps trying to get a competitive advantage via cheap Russian gas (which has been seen to be very expensive gas in a broader context). Caution required-see remarks by Stoltenberg. Your remark about playing this game every winter is aposite. Just been listening to an analysis which suggests he intends this to be the new normal-until Ukraine is absorbed into Russia. |
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