Ukraine crisis

[Deleted]

Times reports that Shoigu is missing. Now wait to see if Putin's deal with Pregozhin includes sacking Shoigu.

If so this isn't good news for Ukraine. Pregozhins criticism of the MOD was that it wasn't winning the war quickly enough.

I can't see how an internal spat between Russian Nationalists is good news.

[Deleted]

Saw the President of Latvia Egils Levits interviewed on Sky yesterday. He said that Putin should no longer be treated by The West as a "guarantor" of stability in Russia and we should support democratic opposition groups.

Hopefully that message will put an end to the ill conceived telephone "diplomacy" of former days, but I assume political interference of the kind he proposes will be a no no for democratically elected leaders.

Today's Times is replete with stories of Russia's long addiction to powerful men and brutal bloody changes of power. And one article describing the power brokers now circling in the Kremlin brings home the awful truth of Levit's message. There are no Democrats in Moscow-just competing Russian Nationalists :-

"A swathe of senior officials failed to publicly condemn Prigozhin as Wagner troops advanced on the capital. Among those who stayed silent were seven permanent members of the Security Council, including Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB state security service, Mikhail Mishustin, the prime minister, and Viktor Zolotov, director of the national guard.

Nikolai Patrushev, a long-time Putin ally who is the council chairman, also failed to speak out against Wagner, as did Margarita Simonyan, the head of RT, the Kremlin-backed news channel.

Putin’s near silence, combined with the ease at which the Wagner fighters came within striking distance of Moscow, has brought criticism from hardliners. In Moscow, Vladimir Kvachkov, an ultranationalist former military intelligence officer, told a gathering of comrades that Wagner’s uprising meant that “Putin’s state no longer exists”. He also said that the aim of nationalists should be to “liberate our country”. Kvachkov spent eight years in prison after being convicted in 2010 of creating a terrorist group and plotting to overthrow the government.
He was speaking at a meeting of hundreds of pro-war figures known as the Angry Patriots Club that included Igor Girkin, a former FSB officer who led Russian forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and is wanted for the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over the Donbas region.

Analysts believe that the group is backed by hardliners in the Russian security services. Girkin said: “The time of troubles has begun.” "

Times

[Deleted]

Becoming quite nervous now that Putin seems to have survived politically. He has "forgiven" the Wagner mercenaries because the army supported them !

Russian nationalists are producing all this pressure on him-not democrats.

I become more nervous that he will ramp up the destruction of Ukraine as a functioning state with more missile strikes . The dam explosion has ruined a whole chunk of Ukraine's vast agricultural resource. Is Putin about to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and make southern Ukraine uninhabitable ? There are more and more reports that he will.

[johntel]

Jun 27, 2023 7:59:07 GMT colin said:

Becoming quite nervous now that Putin seems to have survived politically. He has "forgiven" the Wagner mercenaries because the army supported them !

Russian nationalists are producing all this pressure on him-not democrats.

I become more nervous that he will ramp up the destruction of Ukraine as a functioning state with more missile strikes . The dam explosion has ruined a whole chunk of Ukraine's vast agricultural resource. Is Putin about to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and make southern Ukraine uninhabitable ? There are more and more reports that he will.

Maybe, but they'll need to make sure the wind is blowing in the right direction.

Some information about prevailing winds in here - wdc.org.ua/atlas/en/4080100.html

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2023 12:35:24 GMT johntel said:

Jun 27, 2023 7:59:07 GMT colin said:

Becoming quite nervous now that Putin seems to have survived politically. He has "forgiven" the Wagner mercenaries because the army supported them !

Russian nationalists are producing all this pressure on him-not democrats.

I become more nervous that he will ramp up the destruction of Ukraine as a functioning state with more missile strikes . The dam explosion has ruined a whole chunk of Ukraine's vast agricultural resource. Is Putin about to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and make southern Ukraine uninhabitable ? There are more and more reports that he will.

Maybe, but they'll need to make sure the wind is blowing in the right direction.

Some information about prevailing winds in here - wdc.org.ua/atlas/en/4080100.html

Do you believe he thinks about things like that ?. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Well its starting to look like the targeting of Russian Artillery assets is starting to show - reports in the north of less Russian artillery support. There is a limit to how the Russians can compensate for this with airpower. Increasingly the Russians are looking stretched.

[Deleted]

Children dead in a pizza restaurant :-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66031342

because NATO instructors were there :-

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/28/ukraine-russia-war-latest-vladimir-putin-yevgeny-prigozhin/

Ukraine's air defences are totally inadequate to defend every town an city .

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2023 15:20:40 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Well its starting to look like the targeting of Russian Artillery assets is starting to show - reports in the north of less Russian artillery support. There is a limit to how the Russians can compensate for this with airpower. Increasingly the Russians are looking stretched.

Should be noted they are still firing an awful lot of shells which are coming from stock, so its possible they are starting to run down a bit too.

ISW report there seems to have been a bit of a purge of Russian commanders following the Wagner revolt. Given claims in the past about the high attrition rate of Russian officers, that can hardly help their conduct of the war.

[Deleted]

"He ( Prof Michael Clarke)also said Ukraine's lack of air superiority has played into Russia's hands, allowing aerial attacks on convoys and troops stuck in heavily mined areas.
"If you can't get through them quickly enough [the minefields], then you become a target," he said.

"They've [Ukraine] got to clear these minefields before they can get going again."

Sky News

[Deleted]

Putin's friends.

www.politico.eu/article/report-tobacco-and-food-giants-made-billions-in-russia-after-ukraine-invasion/

[Deleted]

Relentless terror attacks:-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66117111

[alec]

lululemonmustdobetter - this caught my eye -

Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia, and has closed the gap significantly on artillery. That's even before you consider the imbalance of quality, with Russia reaching back to 1950s models from storage while Ukraine is re-upping with Nato kit.

I still think Russia is bleeding out in Ukraine.

[Deleted]

Very hard going through the Russian minefields:-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66121584

One begins to wonder about the NATO strategy for this conflict which failed to provide air support-and didnt realise the Russians had mined their bit of Ukraine.

Next great idea-cluster bombs :-

" Reports have emerged in Washington that the United States is proposing to send cluster weapons to Ukraine, despite widespread calls for a worldwide ban on their use because of the harm they cause to civilians.
President Biden’s administration was expected to announce by the end of the week that it would send the munitions to help Ukrainian forces overcome Russian defences and in particular the minefields in its counteroffensive in the southeast of the country.
Cluster munitions can be delivered by rockets, missiles and aircraft, exploding in the air and spreading “bomblets” over a wide area. They are of particular use to foil minefields. By their nature, however, they are indiscriminate. Unexploded bomblets remain a hazard, especially for children, for months or years after the conflict.
The United Kingdom is one of more than 100 countries, including most EU states, to have signed up to a ban on their use and export. The list, however, does not include the US, Russia or Ukraine. Both sides in the latest conflict have used the weapons.
Russian use of cluster munitions has caused hundreds of Ukrainian civilian casualties and damaged homes, hospitals and schools. Military leaders in Kyiv have openly asked to be supplied with the weapons."

Times


God knows what the death toll of this awful conflict continues to be .

[Deleted]

ISW says Ukraine putting lives before rapid progress on the Front:-

www.euronews.com/2023/07/06/ukraine-war-kyiv-shifts-gear-in-counteroffensive-to-preserve-manpower

[johntel]

Very unclear whats going on with Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries - they appear to be still in Russia. Seems likely that there's still a big power struggle going on behind the scenes.

My guess (and it is a complete guess) is that Prigozhin realised that Putin (and Lukashenko) were reneging on the deal and decided the best way to protect himself was to stay in Russia under the protection of his troops there, with the threat that they could resume the march on Moscow.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jul 6, 2023 19:19:46 GMT alec said:

lululemonmustdobetter - this caught my eye - 

Hi alec - I'm not sure how reliable that estimate is. I've seen widely different figures for the number of T-72/T-90 tanks Russia has in storage and how serviceable they are etc. My view is they probably have more a problem of trained personnel than number of tanks (and currently putting resources into getting large number of those they have in storage operational probably isn't a priority). I think its a different story in regards to artillery, particularly in regards to self-propelled pieces. They have started to deploy some very old mobile mortars, and there is a lot of evidence that the Ukrainians have been successfully targeting and liquidating Russia's most modern artillery assets.

However, the Russians have ramped up their own production and usage of drones. 

One should note that parity in tanks/artillery does not give sufficient force multipliers to the Ukrainians to secure success. They really need air-superiority for that to occur.

[johntel]

I have to say that I (reluctantly) support giving cluster bombs to the Ukrainians. They say they're running out of ammunition so we have to give them what they need.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 13:02:53 GMT johntel said:

I have to say that I (reluctantly) support giving cluster bombs to the Ukrainians. They say they're running out of ammunition so we have to give them what they need.

This will test harmony at the NATO meeting surely? US is not a signatory to the ban. Ukraine can't break through the minefields and triple line of Russian defensive positions.

Ukraine promised to use clusterbombs only to break through-and not in urban areas. But everyone knows the % of dud bomblets will leave a deadly legacy.

It just emphasises how difficult it is for Ukraine to throw Russia out of the occupied and heavily fortified territories.

[Deleted]

"One by one, America's Nato allies have been lining up to distance themselves from its decision to supply Ukraine with controversial cluster bombs.
Britain, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made clear, is a signatory to the 2008 convention that prohibits their production and use - and discourages their use by others.
Canada went further, with a government statement saying it was committed to putting an end to the effects of cluster munitions have on civilians, particularly children.
Spain said these weapons should not be sent to Ukraine, while Germany said it was also against the decision, although it understood the reasoning behind it.
Even Russia condemned it, despite having made extensive use of cluster munitions itself against Ukraine, saying it would litter the land for generations.
But Gen Sir Richard Shirreff, a former deputy commander of Nato in Europe, defended the decision, saying their deployment should make it easier for Ukraine to break through Russian lines.
If the West had provided more arms sooner, he said, then there would not have been a need to provide this weapon now."

Frank Gardner
BBC

"In part, Russia’s resistance reflects the simple fact that, in the main, defence is easier than offence. This is all the more true when there has been time to establish strong defensive positions. The so-called “Surovikin line” may last longer than the man it is named after: the previous overall Russian field commander who is now reportedly under investigation for supporting the Wagner mutiny. It is an extensive series of trenches, minefields, razor wire, tank traps and firing positions, intended to slow down any Ukrainian attack and canalise it into killing grounds which can be raked by artillery.
So far, the Ukrainians have been able to break through some of the outer defensive lines, but have not really engaged with the main fortifications. Furthermore, they have also suffered losses to the very equipment best suited to clearing paths through them, including half of the Leopard 2R mine-clearing tanks provided by Finland. Hence their particular interest in acquiring cluster munitions, even though most of the world (albeit neither Russia nor the USA) has banned them. These are shells that scatter numerous “bomblets” across their target area and are especially effective against troops in trenches."
The Russians have also demonstrated the capacity to learn lessons from the past 16 months of war, from better managing its artillery to co-ordinating its drone operations with its ground movements. A British Ministry of Defence analyst framed this as “forced adaptation under fire — often crude, but effective”.

They are making greater use of their air power. Attack helicopters, especially the Ka-52 Alligator, have been committed in larger concentrations than in the past, flying by both day and night, and armed with Vikhr laser-guided anti-tank missiles which can be launched while out of range of short-range Ukrainian air defences. Last month, another 20 were deployed to a forward air base near Berdyansk, leading the MoD to tweet: “Russia has gained a temporary advantage in southern Ukraine.”

They are also using relatively new weapons and modifications, from thermal camouflage (to make it harder for troops and vehicles to be seen and targeted by Ukrainian night vision systems) to upgraded Lancet suicide drones that have been targeting enemy artillery. There is also a new spirit of pragmatic innovation. To make up for dwindling supplies of precision missiles, for example, the Russians have started fitting kits to existing bombs allowing them to glide up to 30 kilometres after being launched at high altitudes. This allows aircraft to launch glide bombs while still in Russian airspace to hit targets across the border."

from "What’s slowing Ukraine’s counteroffensive? Russia is fighting smarter"
Professor Mark Galeotti
Times

[Deleted]

Message to Putin from NATO-If you can hold those defence lines in Ukraine , it will run out of military support and will never join NATO.

[domjg]

Jul 13, 2023 8:11:16 GMT colin said:

Message to Putin from NATO-If you can hold those defence lines in Ukraine , it will run out of military support and will never join NATO.

Alternatively if the message is sent that Ukraine will join NATO in boundaries as yet unclear as soon as the war is 'over' then the Russians have every incentive to keep any level of armed conflict going indefinitely, to prevent that occurring. 

It doesn't change anything of the current engagement. The only thing that is going to make him relinquish those defence lines is brute force. 

On the other hand, knowing that NATO membership was a given would have been a big morale booster for the Ukrainians but if I understand correctly they will not have to go through the onerous and time consuming Membership Action Plan (MAP) evaluations that prospective members are supposed to fulfil so when the time comes will be more likely to join quickly and easily more like Finland and Sweden now which will be easier given a large part of it's armed forces will have been NATO supplied and NATO trained. 

[Deleted]

Jul 13, 2023 20:58:06 GMT domjg said:

Jul 13, 2023 8:11:16 GMT colin said:

Message to Putin from NATO-If you can hold those defence lines in Ukraine , it will run out of military support and will never join NATO.

A-Alternatively if the message is sent that Ukraine will join NATO in boundaries as yet unclear as soon as the war is 'over' then the Russians have every incentive to keep any level of armed conflict going indefinitely, to prevent that occurring. 

It doesn't change anything of the current engagement. The only thing that is going to make him relinquish those defence lines is brute force. 

On the other hand, knowing that NATO membership was a given would have been a big morale booster for the Ukrainians but if I understand correctly they will not have to go through the onerous and time consuming Membership Action Plan (MAP) evaluations that prospective members are supposed to fulfil so when the time comes will be more likely to join quickly and easily more like Finland and Sweden now which will be easier given a large part of it's armed forces will have been NATO supplied and NATO trained. 

A-Exactly-that's what I said and meant.

Hold the defence lines and keep destroying bits of Ukraine , its industrial and agricultural economic capacity , and terrorise its citizens with missile attacks & waves of cheap drones.

There is a depressing piece by Gerard Baker in today's  Times -a US Republican pov.
A few quotes :-

" In May 2022, as Joe Biden’s administration and Congress were uniting to send large tranches of aid, only 12 per cent of Americans thought the US was doing too much, according to the Pew Foundation. Last month that number had risen to 28 per cent and is now almost twice as many as those saying the US is not doing enough. Among Republicans the waning enthusiasm for Kyiv is starker. In May last year 19 per cent thought the US was doing too much. That number is now 44 per cent, three times as many as those who say the US is not doing enough.
My British friends are often puzzled and dismayed by these trends. How can Americans not see the justice of the Ukrainian cause? How can they not see that it’s in the US’s own interests that Zelensky defeats Putin?
These are reasonable questions and as someone who strongly supports the use of my tax dollars for the purpose, I too am concerned that diminishing numbers of Americans see the value of the US strategy. But it’s important for Europeans also to understand why a growing number of American conservatives, especially, are doubtful about the justice and wisdom of the approach."

"Others argue, again with cause, that the US support for Ukraine is depleting its own military capabilities and leaving it under-equipped for a potential conflict with its much more important strategic adversary, China. Still others ask: what is the military objective? Do we really think Russia is going to surrender? If some sort of brokered peace is necessary, why continue to act in a way that makes it harder?
Above all, few things infuriate Americans more than being told by Europeans that they have a bounden duty to defend Europe from other Europeans. That is, after all, what Americans think they’ve been doing for more than a century, at great cost in blood and treasure.
European attitudes towards American military support for their defence sometimes remind me of the old New Yorker cartoon in which a customer in a bookshop says to the bookseller: “I want a book on chutzpah and I want you to pay for it.”"

"Time, I suspect, is running out. If the current counteroffensive fails to achieve a decisive shift in the war’s progress, not only Republicans but growing numbers of Democrats will be looking for an exit. And if the battle lines are little different from where they are now by next November, when America elects its president, it will not only be Trump promising to bring the war to an end."

Times

It is clear Biden doesn't believe that Russian forces  will be wholly  ejected from UKraine. -he said "“My hope is, and my expectation is, you’ll see that Ukraine makes significant progress on their offensive, and that it generates in a negotiated settlement somewhere along the line.”

But I ask myself-If what started all this was Putin's desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO , why conclude a cessation of hostilities which will facilitate NATO membership for Ukraine.

I can see no other course for Putin which keeps Ukraine detached from NATO/EU , than holding a chunk of it by military force for as long as possible whilst degrading its economic capacity and willpower. And that of its allies.

Reports are that Putin will refuse to renew the Grain export deal next Tuesday. Just another ratchet.

I really hope and pray that the cluster bombs clear a path through the russian defence lines for all that expensive NATO kit. But it is a demonstration of how difficult a task it is to breach them without an effective airforce , that such a horrendous weapon has to be used.

When one contemplates the cost to the West of the military campaign , and the future cost of reconstruction and economic revival , I think the whole Western Aid strategy will come to be seen as short sighted and slow. The fear of confrontation with Russia has , imo, been a dreadful error running throughout , shackling Ukraine's ability to really defend itself.

We should have confronted Putin directly on the battlefield -and should do so now by bringing Ukraine into NATO.

[Deleted]

They aren't pissing about ! :-

"Cluster munitions provided by the United States have now arrived in Ukraine, the Pentagon confirmed on Thursday."
Guardian 13 July 2023

[johntel]

Jul 14, 2023 16:03:16 GMT colin said:

They aren't pissing about ! :-

"Cluster munitions provided by the United States have now arrived in Ukraine, the Pentagon confirmed on Thursday."
Guardian 13 July 2023

I suspect they'll start using them straight away as it is clearly proving to be very difficult to dislodge the well dug-in Russian forces. For all the European hand-wringing it's probably the only way to make progress in the current situation. 

[Mercian as guest]

Apologies if this has been posted before. I don't come to this bit very often.
This chap seems to be pretty clued up about what's happening in Ukraine even if his delivery is a bit irritating:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rrv_CCuqFdw

[Deleted]

Wise words by Wallace in ST about Putin's potential for continued conflict.

[Deleted]

Putin reneges on the Grain Deal.

[Deleted]

Wheat prices spike after Putin bombs grain  store in Odessa.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 20, 2023 9:56:38 GMT colin said:

Wheat prices spike after Putin bombs grain  store in Odessa.

'spike' is a bit OTT. Spot price has jumped but is still below forward prices and forward (futures) prices are only up 1% on the day (at time of writing) - they've been fairly choppy recently but way down from their highs.

www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZW*0/futures-prices

Some other 'bread basket' countries (eg Canada) reacted to higher prices by planting record (or near record) crops and have had very good weather this year.
www.world-grain.com/articles/18702-canadian-wheat-plantings-reach-recent-high#

Putin needed a 'quick war' and failed on that. Countries are adapting and weaning themselves off reliance on Russian (and Ukraine) - although China and India are replacing Europe as a buyer of Russian energy exports.

However, I would agree with anyone/everyone who wants to use any increased level of 'illegal' attacks from Russia as an excuse for NATO-rWorld to intervene more forcefully in the Black Sea with aim of ending the war asap and getting Ukraine back on it's own two feet as an independent nation 'protected' by NATO. Wallace has said one daft comment recently but I think he has a point with:

Ben Wallace: Ukraine has 'tragically become a battle lab' for war technology
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66229336

Some weapons manufacturers have a vested interest in prolonging the war as it is creating a real World 'lab' for them to test weapons and make arms sales. 

Also, the volatility in imported 'essentials' (like food) makes the case for UK reducing our reliance on imports. Canada are 'friendly' and hold Western values but sell exports on a global market. We've learned a very expensive lesson WRT to reliance on imports but it doesn't appear to me that CON HMG (or LAB) are making any effort to reduce our reliance on food imports - just 'diversify' the sources. IMO we need to ensure UK is less exposed to future conflicts that might impact trade and that means 'Build/grow/make it in Britain'

[Mr Poppy]

Follow up to above and something that 'democracies' should be doing something* about IMO:

China imports record volumes of Russian oil in first half of 2023..
It shows how sanctions on Russia are reshaping global oil markets, with China getting a double benefit of cheap crude for itself and the opportunity to boost exports
www.ft.com/content/dd0a0026-0972-45ed-9e62-1f0ea6c0ec58

I'd also be concerned by China stockpiling oil which might be as simples as a fairly cheap price and expectations of stronger growth; or might be because they expect something might happen to make oil prices and/or their access to oil markets to become more expensive/difficult later this year - possibly by something they themselves do?

It is IMO essential that UK becomes less reliant on imports of oil/gas/electricity and food. I'm not going to predict what China might do but we should be ready for all eventualities and becoming more self-reliant and working with others to reduce the economic benefit likes of China are getting from the Ukraine war are IMO two issues that need a lot more attention from 'democracies' who have already been caught once for fools in the recent past.  

* A fairly simple measure would be to apply an extra tariff to countries importing Russian coal/oil/gas reflecting the advantage likes of China are getting from cheaper Russian oil.