Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 22, 2023 16:23:09 GMT
Forgot to make that point ! It's like wading through treacle isn't it ? Moving to Ukraine thread as my reply is more relevant to the Ukraine situation. It is obviously risky to make comparisons to the past but I'm very concerned with the direction of politics in Europe. I'm not predicting where it will end up but is it impossible to imagine the EC-EU agreeing a 'VdL-Lavrov Pact' (Minsk3) dividing up Ukraine in the way Germany-USSR divided up Poland in 1939? If EU slips into 'stagflation' then returning to cheap Russian coal/oil/gas (which likes of Austria are still getting) might seem very tempting. As we've seen in Netherlands and are sadly seeing in UK then folks are 'pushing back' against the short-term costs of "tree hugging, green stuff" (as Starmer called it) as politicians fail to explain the necessity of moving to Net Zero faster. If a future EC-EU 'reflects' on these issues they might "pause" and start considering the unthinkable. A large part of the reason I want NATO to speed things up and help Ukraine WIN the war is because I'm worried what might happen if the war drags on. I've been impressed with the reliance so far but opinion is split across Europe. I'll quote from EP's polling on "Russia's war against Ukraine". "Economic situation: In Italy, 81% of respondents believe the war has economic repercussions, see source. According to another survey, the majority of Italians (71%,) believe that Italy is not effectively managing the current increase in prices"www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraineMeloni has down a 180 on her Russian views but she's a populist who would make that a 360 if it meant staying in power. AfD have pro-Russia views.... It's possible GOP take back control in US (and they are not keen on drawn out foreign wars - so might not oppose a 'pact' between Europe and Russia)... Putin might want to try to claim a 'victory' (in the eyes of his home audience)... Is the unthinkable, totally impossible to imagine possibly happening in the new future? NB Above is not a prediction and I obviously hope it never happens but a drawn out war risks war fatigue and the implications of that certainly give me reason to be worried. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 18:44:09 GMT
Forgot to make that point ! It's like wading through treacle isn't it ? Moving to Ukraine thread as my reply is more relevant to the Ukraine situation. It is obviously risky to make comparisons to the past but I'm very concerned with the direction of politics in Europe. I'm not predicting where it will end up but is it impossible to imagine the EC-EU agreeing a 'VdL-Lavrov Pact' (Minsk3) dividing up Ukraine in the way Germany-USSR divided up Poland in 1939? If EU slips into 'stagflation' then returning to cheap Russian coal/oil/gas (which likes of Austria are still getting) might seem very tempting. As we've seen in Netherlands and are sadly seeing in UK then folks are 'pushing back' against the short-term costs of "tree hugging, green stuff" (as Starmer called it) as politicians fail to explain the necessity of moving to Net Zero faster. If a future EC-EU 'reflects' on these issues they might "pause" and start considering the unthinkable. A large part of the reason I want NATO to speed things up and help Ukraine WIN the war is because I'm worried what might happen if the war drags on. I've been impressed with the reliance so far but opinion is split across Europe. I'll quote from EP's polling on "Russia's war against Ukraine". "Economic situation: In Italy, 81% of respondents believe the war has economic repercussions, see source. According to another survey, the majority of Italians (71%,) believe that Italy is not effectively managing the current increase in prices"www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraineMeloni has down a 180 on her Russian views but she's a populist who would make that a 360 if it meant staying in power. AfD have pro-Russia views.... It's possible GOP take back control in US (and they are not keen on drawn out foreign wars - so might not oppose a 'pact' between Europe and Russia)... Putin might want to try to claim a 'victory' (in the eyes of his home audience)... Is the unthinkable, totally impossible to imagine possibly happening in the new future? NB Above is not a prediction and I obviously hope it never happens but a drawn out war risks war fatigue and the implications of that certainly give me reason to be worried. Interesting thoughts. I agree entirely. I really cannot see how Ukraine can possibly eject all Russian troops from occupied Ukraine. Advances into the Donbas-yes-but hostile territory really. A wedge through to the Black Sea -yes. Retaking Crimea though ? So the endgame for me will not military-and then all the pressures you touch on will be on the table. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 22, 2023 21:57:51 GMT
colin At least parts of the Donbass and Crimea are almost certainly lost for good and I'm sure mamy in the Ukrainian government are just paying lip service to the notion that they must be regained. If they can recover Melitpol, Mariupol and most of the Azov Sea coast that, I think, would count as victory. The Finnish solution. I was reading about the Soviet/Finnish conflicts recently. In the end Finland lost what was at that time it's second largest city, Viipuri (Vyborg) which was evacuated and resettled by Russians like Koenigsberg/Kaliningrad later would be. It also lost it's access to the Barents sea. It however retained it's independence and place in the Western world. Pragmatism will be needed eventually.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2023 7:59:44 GMT
colin At least parts of the Donbass and Crimea are almost certainly lost for good and I'm sure mamy in the Ukrainian government are just paying lip service to the notion that they must be regained. If they can recover Melitpol, Mariupol and most of the Azov Sea coast that, I think, would count as victory. The Finnish solution. I was reading about the Soviet/Finnish conflicts recently. In the end Finland lost what was at that time it's second largest city, Viipuri (Vyborg) which was evacuated and resettled by Russians like Koenigsberg/Kaliningrad later would be. It also lost it's access to the Barents sea. It however retained it's independence and place in the Western world. Pragmatism will be needed eventually. I agree. But I share Trevor's concerns that Europe/US will want to intervene with their varying interpretations of what is pragmatic. Interesting thoughts on the Finland parallel. I was just reading a book review on the life of Gustaf Mannerheim. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 23, 2023 8:34:58 GMT
Moving to Ukraine thread as my reply is more relevant to the Ukraine situation. It is obviously risky to make comparisons to the past but I'm very concerned with the direction of politics in Europe. I'm not predicting where it will end up but is it impossible to imagine the EC-EU agreeing a 'VdL-Lavrov Pact' (Minsk3) dividing up Ukraine in the way Germany-USSR divided up Poland in 1939? If EU slips into 'stagflation' then returning to cheap Russian coal/oil/gas (which likes of Austria are still getting) might seem very tempting. As we've seen in Netherlands and are sadly seeing in UK then folks are 'pushing back' against the short-term costs of "tree hugging, green stuff" (as Starmer called it) as politicians fail to explain the necessity of moving to Net Zero faster. If a future EC-EU 'reflects' on these issues they might "pause" and start considering the unthinkable. A large part of the reason I want NATO to speed things up and help Ukraine WIN the war is because I'm worried what might happen if the war drags on. I've been impressed with the reliance so far but opinion is split across Europe. I'll quote from EP's polling on "Russia's war against Ukraine". "Economic situation: In Italy, 81% of respondents believe the war has economic repercussions, see source. According to another survey, the majority of Italians (71%,) believe that Italy is not effectively managing the current increase in prices"www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraineMeloni has down a 180 on her Russian views but she's a populist who would make that a 360 if it meant staying in power. AfD have pro-Russia views.... It's possible GOP take back control in US (and they are not keen on drawn out foreign wars - so might not oppose a 'pact' between Europe and Russia)... Putin might want to try to claim a 'victory' (in the eyes of his home audience)... Is the unthinkable, totally impossible to imagine possibly happening in the new future? NB Above is not a prediction and I obviously hope it never happens but a drawn out war risks war fatigue and the implications of that certainly give me reason to be worried. Interesting thoughts. I agree entirely. I really cannot see how Ukraine can possibly eject all Russian troops from occupied Ukraine. Advances into the Donbas-yes-but hostile territory really. A wedge through to the Black Sea -yes. Retaking Crimea though ? So the endgame for me will not military-and then all the pressures you touch on will be on the table. The question will be what does a WIN for Ukraine look like? I haven't been following the day-day border shifts that closely but it does seem unrealistic that Zelenskyy will get the border back to pre 2014 positions. As stated near the start of Putin's broader invasion into Ukraine then IMO it is important Ukraine decides Ukraine's future NOT a grubby new deal between some European countries and Russia. It would be naive to think US/Europe have no influence and we should IMO support Ukraine in whatever they realistically ask for, then, when the times comes offer security pacts (possibly not full NATO) and $/€billions of help to rebuild Ukraine (as per the help given to Europe after WW2). US/Europe's broader goal is to make it clear that Putin LOST (although Russian people might be led to believe otherwise) and that there is no return to 'cheap' Russian coal/oil/gas. See other comments where I suggest we start to put a tariff on goods from those benefitting from 'cheap' Russian coal/oil/gas. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 24, 2023 15:42:13 GMT
colin At least parts of the Donbass and Crimea are almost certainly lost for good and I'm sure many in the Ukrainian government are just paying lip service to the notion that they must be regained. , I don't necessarily think that is true. If the Ukrainians do breakthrough in the South to the coast, bringing Crimea and the Kerch Strait within range of a greater amount of their artillery/missiles, they can make Russia's position in Crimea untenable, as they did in Kherson. Their main potential limiting factor in the short to medium term is the west's willingness to continue to supply the Ukrainians.
Your guess is as good as mine in terms of what the final outcome of this war will be, all I am assuming atm is that the war will most likely go into a third year. Its a nasty war of attrition, and in these cases the conflict is often won on the home front. Both sides are suffering high casualties, and domestic moral/will to fight will not be unlimited on either side. A point may well come when Ukrainian public opinion shifts to one of letting 'The Russian areas go' rather than losing more lives. Coupled to a desire by the West to see an end to the conflict, this would mean ceding territory to Russia. Personally, I think that would be a disastrous outcome all round, but may very well be how this pans out. Alternatively, the Russian army and society could break (as it effectively did in 1917) precipitating regime change. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2023 18:06:52 GMT
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Post by johntel on Jul 26, 2023 19:01:32 GMT
colin At least parts of the Donbass and Crimea are almost certainly lost for good and I'm sure many in the Ukrainian government are just paying lip service to the notion that they must be regained. , I don't necessarily think that is true. If the Ukrainians do breakthrough in the South to the coast, bringing Crimea and the Kerch Strait within range of a greater amount of their artillery/missiles, they can make Russia's position in Crimea untenable, as they did in Kherson. Their main potential limiting factor in the short to medium term is the west's willingness to continue to supply the Ukrainians.
Your guess is as good as mine in terms of what the final outcome of this war will be, all I am assuming atm is that the war will most likely go into a third year. Its a nasty war of attrition, and in these cases the conflict is often won on the home front. Both sides are suffering high casualties, and domestic moral/will to fight will not be unlimited on either side. A point may well come when Ukrainian public opinion shifts to one of letting 'The Russian areas go' rather than losing more lives. Coupled to a desire by the West to see an end to the conflict, this would mean ceding territory to Russia. Personally, I think that would be a disastrous outcome all round, but may very well be how this pans out. Alternatively, the Russian army and society could break (as it effectively did in 1917) precipitating regime change. I don't see how Ukraine could possibly keep control of Sevastopol, which is the important bit of Crimea, for many reasons. 90% of the population there had Russian connections even before 2014 and it's population has since been bolstered by huge numbers of Russia-supporting refugees from the Donbass. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 27, 2023 8:09:58 GMT
I don't see how Ukraine could possibly keep control of Sevastopol, which is the important bit of Crimea, for many reasons. 90% of the population there had Russian connections even before 2014 and it's population has since been bolstered by huge numbers of Russia-supporting refugees from the Donbass.
If the Russians are forced to pull out from Crimea (fresh water supply cut off and logistics interdicted due to exposure to bombardment) I would expect the most ardent Russian nationalist elements of the population would leave with them, the majority would probably remain. In a post conflict settlement where Ukraine has regained control over all of its sovereign territory, the stability of Crimea would in large part be driven by the nature of the regime in Russia and the extent to which it would support terrorist/separatist groups in Crimea. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 27, 2023 14:23:40 GMT
I don't see how Ukraine could possibly keep control of Sevastopol, which is the important bit of Crimea, for many reasons. 90% of the population there had Russian connections even before 2014 and it's population has since been bolstered by huge numbers of Russia-supporting refugees from the Donbass.
If the Russians are forced to pull out from Crimea (fresh water supply cut off and logistics interdicted due to exposure to bombardment) I would expect the most ardent Russian nationalist elements of the population would leave with them, the majority would probably remain. In a post conflict settlement where Ukraine has regained control over all of its sovereign territory, the stability of Crimea would in large part be driven by the nature of the regime in Russia and the extent to which it would support terrorist/separatist groups in Crimea.@lululemonmustdobetter Sorry, but I don't think you can compare Sevastopol with other cities like Odessa. Many people in Sevastopol were employed directly by the Russian state even before 2014, either through the military or other institutions based there. Due to its historical symbolic importance, most recently the 2nd world war, most Russians consider Sevastopol to be a Russian city and the locals were resentful of the way they were treated by Kyiv even before 2014. Many young men from Sevastopol volunteered for the army last year and they have suffered heavy casualties, so I don't think they will lay down their arms easily. |
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Post by alec on Jul 27, 2023 14:46:56 GMT
It does look like Russian defences are crumbling in the Berdyansk region. There are still some defensive lines intact, but this thrust to the coast always looked like the most threatening option for Russia, slicing their forces in two. While it's very difficult to get any Ukrainian info on this, that isn't untypical when things are on the move - they tend to sit on information until it's clear there has been a success. However, Russian sources are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation, with talk of Mauripoul being exposed if this continues much further.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 27, 2023 15:10:25 GMT
@lululemonmustdobetter Sorry, but I don't think you can compare Sevastopol with other cities like Odessa. Many people in Sevastopol were employed directly by the Russian state even before 2014, either through the military or other institutions based there. Due to its historical symbolic importance, most recently the 2nd world war, most Russians consider Sevastopol to be a Russian city and the locals were resentful of the way they were treated by Kyiv even before 2014. Many young men from Sevastopol volunteered for the army last year and they have suffered heavy casualties, so I don't think they will lay down their arms easily.
If Russia's is defeated/forced to withdraw then Ukraine will legitimately regain control of its sovereign territory - only time will tell how certain groups would reconcile/react to such event. You may very well see a conflict such as one that occurred in Northern Ireland develop, or you may see a mass exodus of Russians from Crimea. But such speculation concerns etc should not act as a reason for us to argue Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 27, 2023 15:32:35 GMT
It does look like Russian defences are crumbling in the Berdyansk region. There are still some defensive lines intact, but this thrust to the coast always looked like the most threatening option for Russia, slicing their forces in two. While it's very difficult to get any Ukrainian info on this, that isn't untypical when things are on the move - they tend to sit on information until it's clear there has been a success. However, Russian sources are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation, with talk of Mauripoul being exposed if this continues much further. , are you referring to the fighting around Robotyne? Berdyansk is a port!
I think the notion that you will see a break out of armour and large swathes of land recaptured is misplaced, and one the Ukrainians themselves are trying to dissuade. It will remain a case of small incremental gains over time - unless the Russians either do something that changes the dynamic or decide their position is untenable and withdraw. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 27, 2023 17:26:52 GMT
@lululemonmustdobetter Sorry, but I don't think you can compare Sevastopol with other cities like Odessa. Many people in Sevastopol were employed directly by the Russian state even before 2014, either through the military or other institutions based there. Due to its historical symbolic importance, most recently the 2nd world war, most Russians consider Sevastopol to be a Russian city and the locals were resentful of the way they were treated by Kyiv even before 2014. Many young men from Sevastopol volunteered for the army last year and they have suffered heavy casualties, so I don't think they will lay down their arms easily.
? No of course not, I'm just trying to be objective about how things are likely to develop. I just don't see a path to Ukraine gaining control of the Sevastopol area of Crimea. You seem to be suggesting that there will be 3rd siege of Sevastopol? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 27, 2023 19:53:37 GMT
So do you think Russia's actions since 2014 are justified in regards to Crimea?
? No of course not, I'm just trying to be objective about how things are likely to develop. I just don't see a path to Ukraine gaining control of the Sevastopol area of Crimea. You seem to be suggesting that there will be 3rd siege of Sevastopol?
In regards to Crimea, how the the Russians logically reacted to the situation they found themselves in Kherson may indicate how they would react to a similar situation developing there. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 27, 2023 21:57:52 GMT
I don't see how Ukraine could possibly keep control of Sevastopol, which is the important bit of Crimea, for many reasons. 90% of the population there had Russian connections even before 2014 and it's population has since been bolstered by huge numbers of Russia-supporting refugees from the Donbass.
If the Russians are forced to pull out from Crimea (fresh water supply cut off and logistics interdicted due to exposure to bombardment) I would expect the most ardent Russian nationalist elements of the population would leave with them, the majority would probably remain. In a post conflict settlement where Ukraine has regained control over all of its sovereign territory, the stability of Crimea would in large part be driven by the nature of the regime in Russia and the extent to which it would support terrorist/separatist groups in Crimea.Perhaps (though pretty unlikely if Ukrainians have split blood for it) an independent Crimean state would be an option? It does have a bit of it's own identity with the Crimean Tatars etc. I could see a situation where Ukraine regains everything except Crimea as the best compromise settlement all round. If Russia were to lose it it would be felt by them as a massive humiliation and would probably result in it just biding it's time until it could come for another go whoever were in charge. Some might see that as repeating the errors of Versailles. It's obviously very hard to know what the Crimeans themselves think of course and whether they would see Ukrainian forces as liberators or oppressors. Perhaps both, depending on who they are/their ethnic group. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 27, 2023 22:10:35 GMT
It does look like Russian defences are crumbling in the Berdyansk region. There are still some defensive lines intact, but this thrust to the coast always looked like the most threatening option for Russia, slicing their forces in two. While it's very difficult to get any Ukrainian info on this, that isn't untypical when things are on the move - they tend to sit on information until it's clear there has been a success. However, Russian sources are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation, with talk of Mauripoul being exposed if this continues much further. , are you referring to the fighting around Robotyne? Berdyansk is a port!
I think the notion that you will see a break out of armour and large swathes of land recaptured is misplaced, and one the Ukrainians themselves are trying to dissuade. It will remain a case of small incremental gains over time - unless the Russians either do something that changes the dynamic or decide their position is untenable and withdraw. You don't think a Normandy scenario might be a possibility, where there is intense nearly static fighting for a while and then a breakout with a quick seizure of large areas? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 28, 2023 7:35:07 GMT
Hi alec , are you referring to the fighting around Robotyne? Berdyansk is a port!
I think the notion that you will see a break out of armour and large swathes of land recaptured is misplaced, and one the Ukrainians themselves are trying to dissuade. It will remain a case of small incremental gains over time - unless the Russians either do something that changes the dynamic or decide their position is untenable and withdraw. You don't think a Normandy scenario might be a possibility, where there is intense nearly static fighting for a while and then a breakout with a quick seizure of large areas? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2023 7:51:30 GMT
Well its sovereign Ukrainian territory, and they had control of it before 2014. Most Ukrainians have some connections with Russia, especially in areas like Odessa and Kharkiv - the Ukrainians have done a good job holding onto them (helped by the barbarity of Putin's regime). I think an individual with Russian connections under Ukrainian authority would be treated 1000% times better than Ukrainian under Russian.
If the Russians are forced to pull out from Crimea (fresh water supply cut off and logistics interdicted due to exposure to bombardment) I would expect the most ardent Russian nationalist elements of the population would leave with them, the majority would probably remain. In a post conflict settlement where Ukraine has regained control over all of its sovereign territory, the stability of Crimea would in large part be driven by the nature of the regime in Russia and the extent to which it would support terrorist/separatist groups in Crimea. Perhaps (though pretty unlikely if Ukrainians have split blood for it) an independent Crimean state would be an option? It does have a bit of it's own identity with the Crimean Tatars etc. I could see a situation where Ukraine regains everything except Crimea as the best compromise settlement all round. If Russia were to lose it it would be felt by them as a massive humiliation and would probably result in it just biding it's time until it could come for another go whoever were in charge. Some might see that as repeating the errors of Versailles. It's obviously very hard to know what the Crimeans themselves think of course and whether they would see Ukrainian forces as liberators or oppressors. Perhaps both, depending on who they are/their ethnic group. If the attempt to punch through to Melitopol succeeds I guess they will try to cut all supply lines to Crimea. Will be interesting to see tactics then. Starve out their own people ? Invite/Engineer all Russians to leave? I agree with you that Crimea is totemic for Putin. What response from him? It still seems hard going yet though :- www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66306150I thought those awful cluster bombs were going to clear the way through minefields ? |
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Post by birdseye on Jul 28, 2023 13:40:16 GMT
Its an interesting aside but there must be many western military planners wondering about the wisdom of our self denial of landmines. They are proving highly effective at delaying / halting an offensive.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 15:06:31 GMT
Pretty downbeat by Frank Gardiner & co:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377This is their summary :- "Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side. By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible. By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way. If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels. For Kyiv, the clock is ticking. Meanwhile Russia simply has to hang on to the territory it has illegally seized." |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 15:14:24 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 5, 2023 17:46:41 GMT
Pretty downbeat by Frank Gardiner & co:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377This is their summary :- "Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side. By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible. By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way. If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels. For Kyiv, the clock is ticking. Meanwhile Russia simply has to hang on to the territory it has illegally seized." I wish we collectively had the guts to give Ukraine the direct air support they need. We could give an assurance we would only hit Russian targets in Ukraine and maybe not even Crimea. Longer term it will strongly be in Russia's interest that they give up the territory gained since last year because as long as they occupy it there cannot be anything approaching a normalisation of relations with the west. Russia and Russians could remain outlaw pariahs for decades with everything that follows from that. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 18:24:20 GMT
Pretty downbeat by Frank Gardiner & co:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377This is their summary :- "Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side. By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible. By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way. If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels. For Kyiv, the clock is ticking. Meanwhile Russia simply has to hang on to the territory it has illegally seized." I wish we collectively had the guts to give Ukraine the direct air support they need. We could give an assurance we would only hit Russian targets in Ukraine and maybe not even Crimea. Longer term it will strongly be in Russia's interest that they give up the territory gained since last year because as long as they occupy it there cannot be anything approaching a normalisation of relations with the west. Russia and Russians could remain outlaw pariahs for decades with everything that follows from that. Yep. The whole Don't Irritate Putin strategy has been a disaster. A Times article today says they were on the point of evacuating Kiev not long ago. Air defences are being cobbled together. I don't think Putin cares about relations with Europe. He has South America, Africa and India on side. He just has to sit on his 20% of Ukraine and watch us drain our Treasuries and goodwill trying to make the other 80% viable. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2023 7:22:18 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 19, 2023 8:50:34 GMT
colin - There is a strong group around Biden who are holding back the western response, because they are of the view that Putin should not be humiliated. These are the people who are prolonging this war and saving Russia, and I wouldn't be too surprised if this is the source of this downbeat assessment. Other assessments are much more optimistic, and the idea that Melitopol is the only way to severe the land bridge is not accurate. Oddly enough, it's the Europeans who are now most strongly supporting arming Ukraine with whatever they need, with Germany increasingly leading.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2023 9:21:37 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 20, 2023 18:10:30 GMT
The Netherlands and Denmark leading the way on support for Ukraine by agreeing to supply 42 and 19 F-16s respectively. The barriers fall eventually, I just wish they'd fall sooner. I can only hope that somewhere someone has decided there's actually method in this drawn out incrementalism. The method is : Keep Ukraine in one piece without having to confront Russia Ourselves. It's a disastrous failure. Ukraine isn't in one piece and bit early to say if arming Ukraine is a 'disastrous failure' but US isn't going to commit troops so not much more UK and others can do except arm/train Ukrainians to fight the war. Just FWIW though then note "The British Royal Air Force doesn’t operate F-16s, but Sunak announced in February the country’s intention to provide pilot training.."
www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/05/15/britain-to-train-ukrainian-pilots-supply-more-missiles-and-drones/I assume most people can appreciate there was no point countries who do use F-16s giving them to Ukraine until Ukraine had pilots that could fly them and that US had to agree to allow... US approves sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlandswww.reuters.com/world/us-approves-sending-f-16s-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-2023-08-17/ |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2023 18:44:17 GMT
I was responding to the opinion " I can only hope that somewhere someone has decided there's actually method in this drawn out incrementalism." posed by @domg The "incrementalism" has been in order to try and ensure Putin cant say we have declared war on Russia. So all the significant stuff they asked for Long Range Artillery , Air Defences, Tanks ...was measured against its so called "offensive" capacity -and delivered slowly and grudgingly. Same with the fast jets. Like hobbling your own expensive racehorse and entering it in the Grand National. The result?-Russia has built a deep defence along the whole front line, whilst it sends missiles practically every day to kill yet more innocent men women and children in their homes or on their streets. A disaster for Ukrainians. A disaster for the West because we have invested billions in an objective we ourselves have rendered unachievable-the total ejection of Russian troops from Ukraine. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 20, 2023 19:34:58 GMT
I was responding to the opinion " I can only hope that somewhere someone has decided there's actually method in this drawn out incrementalism." posed by @domg The "incrementalism" has been in order to try and ensure Putin cant say we have declared war on Russia. So all the significant stuff they asked for Long Range Artillery , Air Defences, Tanks ...was measured against its so called "offensive" capacity -and delivered slowly and grudgingly. Same with the fast jets. Like hobbling your own expensive racehorse and entering it in the Grand National. The result?-Russia has built a deep defence along the whole front line, whilst it sends missiles practically every day to kill yet more innocent men women and children in their homes or on their streets. A disaster for Ukrainians. A disaster for the West because we have invested billions in an objective we ourselves have rendered unachievable- the total ejection of Russian troops from Ukraine. I admit to not following the ebbs and flow in Ukraine that closely but wanted to add a comment on the RAF/planes side. I'm not sure what the "objective" is but some in the West might see it as: 1/ Weakening Russia's forces so that they can't fight anywhere else (eg attack a NATO country which would bring in the whole of NATO via Article 5) 2/ A 'live' weapons test arena for weapon manufactures (IIRC Wallace hinted at that a while ago) 3/ Hoping something happens internally in Russia so that Russia pulls back (although to which line I dunno - pre'14, giving up some/all of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, ??) Achieving air superiority will need planes in the air and that will help towards reducing missile attacks (although Russia have plenty of missiles with sufficient range that can hit targets in Ukraine from a Russian launch site). WRT to offensive capacity then Ukrainian pilots operating NATO donated planes with fairly obvious offensive capacity (eg attack missile launch sites within Russia) will be a decision that I would expect Zelenskyy makes (and IMO should make). What Russia does in retaliation is then TBC (see #1). I'd add 4/ Having weakened Russia's ability to fight (see #1) then 'goad' Putin into attacking* a NATO country and giving NATO the excuse to respond in full with NATO forces I have no doubt that #4 was the reason for 'dither and delay' on sending planes and I'm not predicting the future. As we've discussed before then I'm concerned about allowing the war to drag on so whilst the 'incremental' approach is frustrating then at least it's not going backwards or seeking Minsk III or some other attempt to appease Putin at the expense of another slice off Ukraine. * Not necessarily with direct military action. I'm surprised Putin hasn't tried cyber attacks or similar yet - possibly due to surprise on how united NATO has been. Perhaps he is waiting to see if Trump or AB-Biden wins US presidency next year and tests NATO resolve then (without US then EUrope would be very weak)? Energy prices have stabilised and EU have filled their storage to target levels early and far more prepared for 'Energy' war this Winter than last Winter. Time is not on Putin's side either, "General Winter" is no longer the threat he once was. www.warhistoryonline.com/history/general-winter.html |
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