Danny
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Post by Danny on Mar 4, 2022 11:13:32 GMT
Economic sanctions have never worked anywhere Economic sanctions caused the demise of the USSR. Then we started trading with them again, and here we are.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 4, 2022 11:15:07 GMT
I'm sure they do. It is not too complicated as long as there is manpower (drivers) to deliver them in single vans and lorries (not columns). There are many strange roads/paths in the Eastern side of Ukraine, and they cannot be monitored by the number of Russian soldiers they have (in the night). This is why, although there is shortage of food, there is food in the sieged cities. It is certainly a massive land border and the internal distances within Ukraine are also huge if your only transport option is ' single vans and lorries'. Holding areas in the West will be less difficult than the East of Ukraine (eg either side of Dnieper river). Below link covers some of the issues and mentions a point you've made in the past: "If a strong insurgency matierlizes, Russia might need to devote many more troops to battle it. Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000. "Putin doesn't have that.."www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-end-putin-sanctions-troops-11646240527It also mentions the escalation risk. If the insurgency is being armed via weapons coming from Poland (or other land neighbours) then Putin might be reckless enough to attack a NATO member, hoping that ends the resupply of weapons. At that point NATO can and should invoke Article 5 (but not before that point, IMO and as per majority of most people by inference of polling - although I haven't seen a very specific worded question and for now it would be a 'hypothetical') PS I appreciate the links and info you have been providing. We might disagree about many things but I respect you have a lifetime of more localised knowledge of E.Europe so appreciate the info you bring to UKPR2. For a long time (many decades) it has been UK's (and I expect other countries) practice to buy ex-WP missiles and use them to test our aircraft flare-dispensing programmes. I am sure that we have the contacts in the Middle-East arms bazaars to source more or less anything we need to supply the Ukranians with. Even if captured by the Russians, the only information that they would get from them is that they had originally supplied them to Syria, or Afghanistan, or a similar country from the serial numbers on the weapons.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 4, 2022 11:23:32 GMT
So there's nothing to stop Putin holding the world to ransom. Nothing except the certainty that within 30 minutes of Russia launching a full-blown nuclear attack, that it would have been reduced to a smoking heap of radioactive rubble. The Russians don't have a defence against an all-out nuclear attack either. That's why it's called Mutually Assured Destruction.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 11:48:12 GMT
So there's nothing to stop Putin holding the world to ransom. Nothing except the certainty that within 30 minutes of Russia launching a full-blown nuclear attack, that it would have been reduced to a smoking heap of radioactive rubble. The Russians don't have a defence against an all-out nuclear attack either. That's why it's called Mutually Assured Destruction. I expect Putin has made a plan for just this scenario and he'll be safe in a bunker somewhere in deepest Siberia. I hate thinking about this and I know it's exactly what Putin wants us to be afraid of, but we can't just ignore reality. I'm sure strategists in the US are gaming all the options. We are in their hands.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 13:05:26 GMT
I am sure that we have the contacts in the Middle-East arms bazaars to source more or less anything we need to supply the Ukranians with. Even if captured by the Russians, the only information that they would get from them is that they had originally supplied them to Syria, or Afghanistan, or a similar country from the serial numbers on the weapons. I wouldn't disagree with that but not sure what your point is. As: a/ We (NATO+ non NATO countries, see list provided - reposted below**) don't seem to be shy about stating what weapons we're supplying Ukraine with (ie we're not trying to hide the fact we're intervening in an 'indirect' manner[1]) b/ On that list we see 'Stingers', 'Javelin', NLAW (UK) and Baykar Bayraktar TB2 drones (Turkey) which is modern equipment. No mention of some stuff like predator drones which countries might be holding back for various reasons or might be training up Ukrainians to use later? c/ NATO (and non NATO countries) have deep stores of weapons, plenty more than we've already sent (or pledged to send). ** www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html[1] IE Without putting any NATO forces 'IN' Ukraine (on the ground, or in the airspace). Subtle but important difference (reasons discussed at length) in what we're currently doing to 'help' Ukraine defend itself.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 13:24:26 GMT
NATO review update (no surprise)
“Allies agree that we should not have Nato planes operating in Ukrainian airspace or Nato troops on Ukrainian territory,” Jens Stoltenberg said after the meeting, adding that some countries did raise the issue during the talks
8 MINUTES AGO13:06: www.ft.com/content/fe80e279-aad8-442a-b4d5-0a4f5e44e7df#post-8229952a-9621-4d67-973a-a55a1079e841Hopefully they did discuss what would constitute a breach of Article 5 and various other matters concerning coordinating 'indirect' help? Further down on FT feed then some useful info on the 'stalled' convoy: "The stalled convoy had made no discernible progress in the past two days, according to western intelligence officials.
“It’s worth noting that the longer it takes them to unfurl that column, to start to manoeuvre around Kyiv, then the Ukrainians can start infiltrating and start turning that highway into a site where they can conduct ambushes,” Watling said"
2c: lots of talk that they've run out of fuel, low morale, preferring to use 'Grozny' tactics (but no so much on Kyiv?), etc. We obviously don't know what Putin was intending to do but I very much doubt he planned to put a huge convoy on the outskirts of Kyiv and then just leave it there, as a 'sitting duck', for days on end. As well as the points made in the FT piece WRT to preparing their defences and 'ambush' options then fresh supplies (and resupplies) of weapons are likely making it to Ukrainian troops (although they might start running out of food and Putin I looking to control (stop?) power supply).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 13:27:47 GMT
and a poll from the FT link (2 HOURS AGO 11:34)
Majority of Swedes follow Finns in support of Nato membership, poll shows
2c. Tricky at the mo. If Sweden and Finland can join then why can't Ukraine?...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 14:28:37 GMT
and a poll from the FT link (2 HOURS AGO 11:34) Majority of Swedes follow Finns in support of Nato membership, poll shows2c. Tricky at the mo. If Sweden and Finland can join then why can't Ukraine?... Well you know the answer to that. Because we are afraid of upsetting Vlad. THe poll results you quote are in response to Vlad's threat to their countries :- "Last week, Russia warned both nations against the alliance. Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign affairs spokesman, said: “Obviously, the accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato, which is primarily a military alliance as you well understand, would have serious military and political consequences, which would require our country to make response steps.” ES So there we go. Presumably the Finns and Swedes will be refused entry ( should they ask) ...........otherwise that might look like an unfairness on UKraine ,which is being destroyed just for asking to join.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 4, 2022 14:59:54 GMT
“Putin’s energy shock is broadening into a world food crisis, so brace for rationing
A billion of the world’s poorest people will go even hungrier thanks to Putin’s deranged misadventure”
...
“Unlike the West, China is prepared. It has been stocking up for months and currently holds 84pc of the world’s copper reserve, 70pc of its corn, and 51pc of its wheat.
“China has bought enormous quantities of US soy in recent weeks,” said Rabobank. One might ask if Xi Jinping knew something in advance.
DT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 15:08:36 GMT
""There are no bad intentions towards our neighbours. And I would also advise them not to escalate the situation, not to introduce any restrictions. We fulfill all our obligations and will continue to fulfill them. We do not see any need here to aggravate or worsen our relations. And all our actions, if they arise, they always arise solely in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation. I think that everyone should think about how to normalise relations, and cooperate normally,"
V. Putin Mar 4
swissinfo.ch
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 15:53:23 GMT
Well you know the answer to that. Because we are afraid of upsetting Vlad. ... So there we go. Presumably the Finns and Swedes will be refused entry ( should they ask) ...........otherwise that might look like an unfairness on UKraine ,which is being destroyed just for asking to join. I'm not going to disagree with you but would also add: "Currently, three partner countries have declared their aspirations to NATO membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine" and "Any decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council on the basis of consensus among all Allies" and "At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, the Allies agreed that Georgia and Ukraine will become members of NATO in future"www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htmI'm not going to predict the future but it would IMO be inappropriate for Finland and Sweden to 'jump the queue'. However, at some point, in the hopefully near future, then NATO might well see 2-5 new countries join. Also something for the hopefully near future will be using the frozen seized assets of the Russian Central bank (which could be up to $388bn[1]) to rebuild Ukraine www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/zelenskyy-vows-to-rebuild-ukraine-demands-russian-reparations/50000260-4752429That is certainly getting a bit too far ahead of events but Russia still has the opportunity for 'damage limitation' if they can stop Putin. There can be no 'peace' on pre-existing terms but the 'price' will continue to rise unless/until Putin reverses course or is otherwise stopped. The Wagner and Chechen mercenaries have failed three times (according to rumours[2]) but maybe someone takes out the Russian president (not a prediction of course)? [1] www.ft.com/content/3f1c7151-93ed-48ff-a23c-496320919621[2] Incompetence and/or very effective personal security is possibly the reason but they might also be getting a bit of inside intel? "A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be"
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfcIf there are insiders within Russian forces 'helping' Ukraine then I wouldn't rule out the possibility Putin is taken out. Wishful thinking perhaps but that would probably end the conflict pretty quick. Whoever comes after Putin would be unknown but surely couldn't be worse and Minsk III could end up being Treaty of Versailles II? (other scenarios are of course possible)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 16:01:49 GMT
""There are no bad intentions towards our neighbours. And I would also advise them not to escalate the situation, not to introduce any restrictions. We fulfill all our obligations and will continue to fulfill them. We do not see any need here to aggravate or worsen our relations. And all our actions, if they arise, they always arise solely in response to some unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation. I think that everyone should think about how to normalise relations, and cooperate normally," V. Putin Mar 4 swissinfo.ch Which translates as: 1/ keep buying Russian gas/oil/coal to fund my military operations 2/ let me take Ukraine using the money you keep sending me to fund my military operations NATO doesn't seem to want to do more than 'indirect' help to stop #2 but it's past time to take action on #1 and stop feeding the bear. Gas prices have more than doubled since the invasion began so Putin is getting twice as much hard currency sent into Russia now than he was before 24Feb. Twice as much money to fund his war effort and prop up his regime. That has to end - immediately! www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGJ22/overview
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 16:27:54 GMT
A)That is certainly getting a bit too far ahead of events but Russia still has the opportunity for 'damage limitation' if they can stop Putin. B)The Wagner and Chechen mercenaries have failed three times A) Not going to happen. In Russia if you call the war against UKraine a "war" you can get a £35k fine, or 15 years in prison, or 5 years in a Labour Camp ( Sky News) . Putin's Cabinet and senioe Government officials were not told the details of the invasion . But "“Resignation will lead only to a prison camp.” ( Times report) The World has changed. We have a N. Korea on our doorstep. B) I read the Times report. Notwithstanding the reported intelligence from with the FSB, there must be a very large chance they get him. They only need to succeed once & its not just the Wagner mercenaries. Spetznaz too-with at least 400 in Kiev after him. If he goes and they kill the top government team too-Some steam must leave the popular resistance ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 16:28:49 GMT
Which translates as: 1/ keep buying Russian gas/oil/coal to fund my military operations 2/ let me take Ukraine using the money you keep sending me to fund my military operations NATO doesn't seem to want to do more than 'indirect' help to stop #2 but it's past time to take action on #1 and stop feeding the bear. Gas prices have more than doubled since the invasion began so Putin is getting twice as much hard currency sent into Russia now than he was before 24Feb. Twice as much money to fund his war effort and prop up his regime. That has to end - immediately! www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGJ22/overviewYes-its a self financing war at present.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 4, 2022 17:06:49 GMT
Hi all, can we change the thread name to war - that's what it is, despite what Russia propaganda is trying to convince people.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 17:45:13 GMT
Yes-its a self financing war at present. Sadly not much sign Germany is going to ban Russian gas/oil/coal exports:
Germany warns against ban on energy imports from Russiawww.dw.com/en/germany-warns-against-ban-on-energy-imports-from-russia/a-61002737FWIU then Canada has started a unilateral ban (easy for them to do) and a lot of pressure within US to follow then. We could and should then also follow and perhaps that 'bounces' Germany and others to do the same? With some rationing and all the previous mentioned ways to find alternate options then Germany and C-E Europe could end their dependency on Russia immediately[1] - it would be painful but sending Putin €€billions every month to fund his war on Ukraine has to end and if the money stops going in then maybe Russia deals with the Putin problem itself? [1] Into next Winter would be tricky, that would require rationing IMO. Plenty of press picking up on #9 in the IEA 10pt 'plan' but I'll post the full plan as it shows it can't be all be done by next Winter (although they don't mention all of the possible, such as the 'vague' on nuclear that doesn't specifically mention cancelling planned closures and even restarting recently closed plants) www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 4, 2022 17:45:51 GMT
“Russia’s strategy of turning Ukraine's cities to rubble will make them harder to take, according to the former head of the British Army.
Towns and cities that are pulverised by Russian artillery, rockets and missile strikes will provide ideal defensive positions for Ukrainian forces, said General Sir Nick Carter.
Moscow will need twice as many soldiers to attack such positions compared to advancing over open ground.
He warned that urban guerilla warfare will be “particularly bloody” in the coming weeks and months.”
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Post by birdseye on Mar 4, 2022 17:56:04 GMT
Economic sanctions have never worked anywhere Economic sanctions caused the demise of the USSR. Then we started trading with them again, and here we are. I disagree. Regan spent them into collapse. To try and keep up with the USA they spent more on arms than their economy could carry. Apparently they are at it again with 11% of their budget going on military toys. Mind you the game is a bit different now with high gold and foreign currency reserves whilst all the uSA has is high debt.
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Post by birdseye on Mar 4, 2022 17:59:53 GMT
So there's nothing to stop Putin holding the world to ransom. Nothing except the certainty that within 30 minutes of Russia launching a full-blown nuclear attack, that it would have been reduced to a smoking heap of radioactive rubble. The Russians don't have a defence against an all-out nuclear attack either. That's why it's called Mutually Assured Destruction. Nukes are simply big bombs. They arent the end of the world. Russia has an area of 6.5 million square miles - a 1 megaton nuke damages just 80 square miles. Russias defence against nukes is the same one they had against Hitler and Napoleon - their sheer size.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 18:38:02 GMT
Sadly not much sign Germany is going to ban Russian gas/oil/coal exports:
Germany warns against ban on energy imports from Russiawww.dw.com/en/germany-warns-against-ban-on-energy-imports-from-russia/a-61002737FWIU then Canada has started a unilateral ban (easy for them to do) and a lot of pressure within US to follow then. We could and should then also follow and perhaps that 'bounces' Germany and others to do the same? With some rationing and all the previous mentioned ways to find alternate options then Germany and C-E Europe could end their dependency on Russia immediately[1] - it would be painful but sending Putin €€billions every month to fund his war on Ukraine has to end and if the money stops going in then maybe Russia deals with the Putin problem itself? [1] Into next Winter would be tricky, that would require rationing IMO. Plenty of press picking up on #9 in the IEA 10pt 'plan' but I'll post the full plan as it shows it can't be all be done by next Winter (although they don't mention all of the possible, such as the 'vague' on nuclear that doesn't specifically mention cancelling planned closures and even restarting recently closed plants) www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-yearNo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 18:44:01 GMT
I think sooner rather than later, either Russia agrees a halt or we (Nato, or at least the Euro part of it) will be involved (even more than we already are)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 4, 2022 18:46:38 GMT
Nothing except the certainty that within 30 minutes of Russia launching a full-blown nuclear attack, that it would have been reduced to a smoking heap of radioactive rubble. The Russians don't have a defence against an all-out nuclear attack either. That's why it's called Mutually Assured Destruction. Nukes are simply big bombs. They arent the end of the world. Russia has an area of 6.5 million square miles - a 1 megaton nuke damages just 80 square miles. Russias defence against nukes is the same one they had against Hitler and Napoleon - their sheer size. In 2020 75% of the Russian population lived in cities. We know where the cities are; size is no defence. Also nuclear weapons are not just big bangs, they create radioactive fallout and if enough are used potentially also extinction level climatic change. www.statista.com/statistics/271343/urbanization-in-russia/
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 4, 2022 20:27:34 GMT
Nothing except the certainty that within 30 minutes of Russia launching a full-blown nuclear attack, that it would have been reduced to a smoking heap of radioactive rubble. The Russians don't have a defence against an all-out nuclear attack either. That's why it's called Mutually Assured Destruction. Nukes are simply big bombs. They arent the end of the world. Russia has an area of 6.5 million square miles - a 1 megaton nuke damages just 80 square miles. Russias defence against nukes is the same one they had against Hitler and Napoleon - their sheer size. You are clearly stupid. Nukes are not just big bombs, they also create radioactive fallout that is spread all around the world by the winds. Just read Neville Shute's "On the Beach" of you want to understand what an all out thermonuclear war means for the world as a whole.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 4, 2022 20:27:41 GMT
Watching Channel 4 news alerted me to this story. This is the Daily Express version:
"96 percent dead' Russian senator opens up on huge soldier losses in one military company
RUSSIAN Senator Lyudmila Narusova met at the Federal Council to discuss the conflict in Ukraine and told politicians she was aware of a Russian military company of 100 troops only having four survivors left when it left the battleground. Lyudmila Narusova is a member of Russia's upper house of parliament and is one of a handful of Russian elites speaking out against the Ukraine conflict and the "misinformation" being peddled by the Kremlin. Ms Narusova, who is the widow of Putin's former political mentor Anatoly Sobchak, spoke out at the Russian losses and told the chamber she was aware of a company that had lost 96 percent of its personnel in the fighting. She also acknowledged many conscripts had been forced to sign contracts to join the army or others had done it on their behalf as she continues to challenge Putin's actions in Ukraine."
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Post by birdseye on Mar 4, 2022 21:14:25 GMT
Nukes are simply big bombs. They arent the end of the world. Russia has an area of 6.5 million square miles - a 1 megaton nuke damages just 80 square miles. Russias defence against nukes is the same one they had against Hitler and Napoleon - their sheer size. You are clearly stupid. Nukes are not just big bombs, they also create radioactive fallout that is spread all around the world by the winds. Just read Neville Shute's "On the Beach" of you want to understand what an all out thermonuclear war means for the world as a whole. In which case I am a stupid nuclear physicist! What are your technical qualifications on the subject? GCSE in rudeness maybe?
So far there have been 2056 nuclear explosions in the world - are you glowing in the dark yet? No, you are suffering from the hysteria that CND originally put out. No one says that nukes are a good idea but to say that mankind wont overwhelmingly survive a nuclear war is nonsense.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 4, 2022 21:44:09 GMT
You are clearly stupid. Nukes are not just big bombs, they also create radioactive fallout that is spread all around the world by the winds. Just read Neville Shute's "On the Beach" of you want to understand what an all out thermonuclear war means for the world as a whole. In which case I am a stupid nuclear physicist! What are your technical qualifications on the subject? GCSE in rudeness maybe?
So far there have been 2056 nuclear explosions in the world - are you glowing in the dark yet? No, you are suffering from the hysteria that CND originally put out. No one says that nukes are a good idea but to say that mankind wont overwhelmingly survive a nuclear war is nonsense.
Well we do know this: Hiroshima Pre-raid population 255,000 Dead 66,000 Injured 69,000 Total Casualties 135,000 (53%)Nagasaki Pre-raid population 195,000 Dead 39,000 Injured 25,000 Total Casualties 64,000 (33%)Those were, of course, small bombs by modern standards. Survivors exposed to the radiation have experienced high degrees of cancer, especially leukemia. www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/med/med_chp10.html en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#Cancer_increases
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 23:44:34 GMT
You are clearly stupid. Nukes are not just big bombs, they also create radioactive fallout that is spread all around the world by the winds. Just read Neville Shute's "On the Beach" of you want to understand what an all out thermonuclear war means for the world as a whole. In which case I am a stupid nuclear physicist! What are your technical qualifications on the subject? GCSE in rudeness maybe?
So far there have been 2056 nuclear explosions in the world - are you glowing in the dark yet? No, you are suffering from the hysteria that CND originally put out. No one says that nukes are a good idea but to say that mankind wont overwhelmingly survive a nuclear war is nonsense.
I can say that you have no clue what you are saying when you are counting the controlled explosions ... Anyway, would you like to tell us an exact effect of 3,200 nuclear bombs, both fusion and fusion (with the attributes listed in UN documents) on the life on earth (I used 3,200 as a minimal release)?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 7:19:20 GMT
Regarding 'humanitarian corridors'. I think you'll find that they all run eastwards to Russia, and will be used for propaganda purposes to show people fleeing from Ukrainian attack.
edit at 09:28: I'll be happy to retract this if it turns out to be wrong. There are reports that the corridor is to Zaporizhzhia to the NW of Mariupol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 9:37:55 GMT
FWIU then Canada has started a unilateral ban (easy for them to do) and a lot of pressure within US to follow then. We could and should then also follow and perhaps that 'bounces' Germany and others to do the same? No. The Canadian info (which is easy for them as they are tiny imports from Russia and are themselves a net exporter) www.reuters.com/world/canada-shuts-ports-russian-ships-widening-sanctions-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-01/US pressure building: www.reuters.com/world/us/pressure-grows-biden-ban-us-imports-russian-oil-2022-03-03/UK has already effectively stopped imports: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-60619112Japan worried about prices but they don't import much from Russia: www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14555990Also pressure coming from: Hundreds of NGOs call for import ban on Russian oil, gaswww.france24.com/en/live-news/20220304-hundreds-of-ngos-call-for-import-ban-on-russian-oil-gasIt's a 'nein' from Germany for now but I wouldn't be so sure it is 'nein' for much longer. Putin hasn't turned the gas off which shows he needs the money more than the he wanted to use turning off the gas as leverage so we ('the West') need to show he has no leverage and turn the gas off ourselves (which means it has to come from C-E nations as they are on the end of his pipelines). France could apply internal pressure and vdL seems to care about her 'World stage' image. Scholz has had a massive epiphany already so might be persuaded (my concern would be Linder who controls the purse - see previous comments from him about not raising more debt) Germans and other C-E countries open their homes to refugees from Ukraine but while they keep their wallets open and send money to Putin to fund his war in Ukraine then the war will continue. If they stop feeding the bear, the bear loses its strength and that will speed up the end of the conflict - possibly even before next Winter? Putin is now getting twice the price for his gas compared to what he was before the invasion, twice the €€billions every month coming in from C-E Europe to fund his war.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:00:16 GMT
The Canadian info (which is easy for them as they are tiny imports from Russia and are themselves a net exporter) www.reuters.com/world/canada-shuts-ports-russian-ships-widening-sanctions-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-01/US pressure building: www.reuters.com/world/us/pressure-grows-biden-ban-us-imports-russian-oil-2022-03-03/UK has already effectively stopped imports: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-60619112Japan worried about prices but they don't import much from Russia: www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14555990Also pressure coming from: Hundreds of NGOs call for import ban on Russian oil, gaswww.france24.com/en/live-news/20220304-hundreds-of-ngos-call-for-import-ban-on-russian-oil-gasIt's a 'nein' from Germany for now but I wouldn't be so sure it is 'nein' for much longer. Putin hasn't turned the gas off which shows he needs the money more than the he wanted to use turning off the gas as leverage so we ('the West') need to show he has no leverage and turn the gas off ourselves (which means it has to come from C-E nations as they are on the end of his pipelines). France could apply internal pressure and vdL seems to care about her 'World stage' image. Scholz has had a massive epiphany already so might be persuaded (my concern would be Linder who controls the purse - see previous comments from him about not raising more debt) Germans and other C-E countries open their homes to refugees from Ukraine but while they keep their wallets open and send money to Putin to fund his war in Ukraine then the war will continue. If they stop feeding the bear, the bear loses its strength and that will speed up the end of the conflict - possibly even before next Winter? Putin is now getting twice the price for his gas compared to what he was before the invasion, twice the €€billions every month coming in from C-E Europe to fund his war. Thanks. What an extraordinary change in Germany from all those years of accommodating Ostpolitik. Pacifism abandoned -a credible NATO contributor at last-but still latched to the Putin gas teat for some time to come. Uncomfortable. -no less than UK's embarrassing attempt to distance from Oligarch assets and political contributions. What a Damascene Conversion the West is going through ! Putin's game plan moving ahead in Mariupol and Volnovakha-cities encircled and flattened. Then let the civilians they didn't kill out in a "humanitarian " gesture-215k people to join the 1.2 million refugees and god knows how many internally displaced. You only have to see the news from Poland to see these are the young western facing families who are the children of Maidan-the centre of Putin's hatred. How many more to come ? 4 million they say ? Zelensky last night lambasted NATO :-"“All the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you, because of your weakness, because of your lack of unity,” The battle for Kiev will be horrendous-and what after that? Its so hard to foresee. A devastated country , their emblematic President killed or captured and Yanukovych back in charge ?. Western Europe coping with 4 or 5 million refugees , and watching and waiting for Putin's next move-Moldova ? In Russia the G reports "BBC, CNN and other global news outlets suspend reporting in Russia.BBC’s director-general says new Russian legislation ‘appears to criminalise the process of independent journalism’" Russia moves to N. Korea status. This is a new Order of Things. The implications are so difficult to foresee.
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