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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 10:45:03 GMT
It is not at all important, but still interesting. The German weapon donation to Ukraine comes from the GDR stock, so Warsaw Pact. Would it possible for you to supply sources please. I'm not saying it isn't but it would be good to read the source to see what is being sent. If some countries are dumping redundant equipment from the last century then that is clearly different to sending Ukrainians the latest C21 tech.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 11:03:34 GMT
It is not at all important, but still interesting. The German weapon donation to Ukraine comes from the GDR stock, so Warsaw Pact. Would it possible for you to supply sources please. I'm not saying it isn't but it would be good to read the source to see what is being sent. If some countries are dumping redundant equipment from the last century then that is clearly different to sending Ukrainians the latest C21 tech. You are right, I should have. Originally, I picked it up from DW, but here is a better one. The information on the weapons is under the main heading.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 11:47:07 GMT
Would it possible for you to supply sources please. I'm not saying it isn't but it would be good to read the source to see what is being sent. If some countries are dumping redundant equipment from the last century then that is clearly different to sending Ukrainians the latest C21 tech. You are right, I should have. Originally, I picked it up from DW, but here is a better one. The information on the weapons is under the main heading. Thank you. The details being in: Well provided they do get to troops that need them in time, then is certainly better than nothing but hardly cutting edge tech. Your source doesn't state which model but things have moved on a bit since the Vietnam War. Sending them Stingers would have been better. PS I note also from dpa: #BREAKING Volkswagen says it will stop its vehicle production in Russia until further notice and immediately halt exports to Russia. If you/anyone sees a list of the different companies that have broken ties with Russia (often at huge cost to their business) then can you/they post. Very welcome to see. In the modern World then 'brand' is key and Russia links are toxic. Others are likely to follow the examples of BP, Shell, VW, etc and perhaps as more Russians see the impact of Russia becoming a 'Pariah state' the internal war resistance will increase within Russia PPS Major General Andrei Sukhovetskiy being killed in the invasion is IMO of some veery modest importance. 'Big' names being killed might weaken morale within Russia's troops and eventually possibility even lead to some Russian forces standing down? We obviously shouldn't assume that but every small piece of -ve news for the Russian invasion is a small piece of +ve news for Ukraine and the West. Hence the importance of giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 11:58:40 GMT
@tw
No, it isn't cutting edge, but it has the advantage of providing time to the soldier to shoot and then hide.
I agree with you on potential impact of the economic/business moves, and as long as Ukraine can resist, it would bring the changes.
A major general in the Russian army (if the news is true) could be a commander of a regiment or a commander or chief of staff of a half-division (brigade).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 12:28:32 GMT
@tw No, it isn't cutting edge, but it has the advantage of providing time to the soldier to shoot and then hide. Agreed. In a 'siege' scenario where guerrilla warfare tactics are required then small, light, transportable, single operator, easy to use weapons are very useful for sure and most certainly better than nothing. There might also be some hesitancy to try to get the best/latest weapons to Ukraine given the now higher risk the weapons are captured or destroyed en route (see articles posted y'day about the 'supply route' issues and how Russia will likely try to shut those off asap). If the remaining 'land only' resupply routes become closed or too risky then what will 'the West' do to resupply Ukrainians fighting Russian forces? A question for the near future that I hope NATO is discussing and planning for now.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 12:49:19 GMT
If the remaining 'land only' resupply routes become closed or too risky then what will 'the West' do to resupply Ukrainians fighting Russian forces? A question for the near future that I hope NATO is discussing and planning for now. I'm sure they do. It is not too complicated as long as there is manpower (drivers) to deliver them in single vans and lorries (not columns). There are many strange roads/paths in the Eastern side of Ukraine, and they cannot be monitored by the number of Russian soldiers they have (in the night). This is why, although there is shortage of food, there is food in the sieged cities.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Mar 3, 2022 13:08:10 GMT
Ukraine crisis: What sanctions could West still impose on Russia? www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60529926I'll pick out a few points: "We are at a seven or eight out of 10 on the escalation ladder right now.. There is definitely still room to go with tightening" "My sense is that it's going to become politically untenable to say we'll keep paying Russia for oil, gas and coal," The key phrase there is 'politically untenble'. If Ukraine holds out then it will become politicaly untenable to refuse any sort of help including actual soldiers.
Meanwhile it looks like Russia has only one military option at the moment, which is bombardment. All bad publicity.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 13:20:57 GMT
If you/anyone sees a list of the different companies that have broken ties with Russia (often at huge cost to their business) then can you/they post. Cos Mr Putin has asked us cyber bots for names - he wants the full list.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 13:48:07 GMT
If the remaining 'land only' resupply routes become closed or too risky then what will 'the West' do to resupply Ukrainians fighting Russian forces? A question for the near future that I hope NATO is discussing and planning for now. I'm sure they do. It is not too complicated as long as there is manpower (drivers) to deliver them in single vans and lorries (not columns). There are many strange roads/paths in the Eastern side of Ukraine, and they cannot be monitored by the number of Russian soldiers they have (in the night). This is why, although there is shortage of food, there is food in the sieged cities. It is certainly a massive land border and the internal distances within Ukraine are also huge if your only transport option is ' single vans and lorries'. Holding areas in the West will be less difficult than the East of Ukraine (eg either side of Dnieper river). Below link covers some of the issues and mentions a point you've made in the past: "If a strong insurgency matierlizes, Russia might need to devote many more troops to battle it. Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000. "Putin doesn't have that.."www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-end-putin-sanctions-troops-11646240527It also mentions the escalation risk. If the insurgency is being armed via weapons coming from Poland (or other land neighbours) then Putin might be reckless enough to attack a NATO member, hoping that ends the resupply of weapons. At that point NATO can and should invoke Article 5 (but not before that point, IMO and as per majority of most people by inference of polling - although I haven't seen a very specific worded question and for now it would be a 'hypothetical') PS I appreciate the links and info you have been providing. We might disagree about many things but I respect you have a lifetime of more localised knowledge of E.Europe so appreciate the info you bring to UKPR2.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 3, 2022 13:51:21 GMT
If the remaining 'land only' resupply routes become closed or too risky then what will 'the West' do to resupply Ukrainians fighting Russian forces? A question for the near future that I hope NATO is discussing and planning for now. I'm sure they do. It is not too complicated as long as there is manpower (drivers) to deliver them in single vans and lorries (not columns). There are many strange roads/paths in the Eastern side of Ukraine, and they cannot be monitored by the number of Russian soldiers they have (in the night). This is why, although there is shortage of food, there is food in the sieged cities. I guess one of the possible points of friction involving Nato/West and Russia will be if Odessa is blockaded.
As is always the case in war, what is going on on the ground is unclear. From what's being reported the Ukrainians have focused their defence/supplies on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russia does not seem to be coordinating its forces well, in the North at least. But maybe that large force north of Kyiv is there to tie down Ukrainian forces while they roll up the South? All that is certain is that civilians are paying a very very high price.
Geo-politically the big player is China. Western intelligence sources are claiming they (China) knew about the attack in advance and it was delayed to avoid messing with the Olympics. That does make sense as logically, the Russian would have wanted to attack in mid-Feb when the ground would have bee a bit harder (the area where the column is is actually in the SW corner/edge of the marsh lands), also the delay may have allowed for more Western military aid to get through. I do think/fear looking to China to intervene to stop this is a bit of a forlorn hope. They share much of Putin's critique of the West and will see parallels between the Ukraine and Taiwan. Also on a number of issues China has demonstrated their own lack of concern for 'international opinion'.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 14:15:02 GMT
It is certainly a massive land border and the internal distances within Ukraine are also huge if your only transport option is ' single vans and lorries'. Holding areas in the West will be less difficult than the East of Ukraine (eg either side of Dnieper river). It also mentions the escalation risk. If the insurgency is being armed via weapons coming from Poland (or other land neighbours) then Putin might be reckless enough to attack a NATO member, hoping that ends the resupply of weapons. At that point NATO can and should invoke Article 5 (but not before that point, IMO and as per majority of most people by inference of polling - although I haven't seen a very specific worded question and for now it would be a 'hypothetical') Just briefly. For example, Hungary doesn't let weapons through, and Poland would need a transition country (for security). I doubt that the Russians could take Lvov anytime soon, it could be used for flying in the stuff, and then using the ground. About the escalation. Who knows? According to a 2020 law (it is on an official site of the Russian government, but now I cannot access it), the president can order nuclear attack, but only through the Chief of Staff of the Army. Which makes it tricky (if you remember all the gossips about the final years of Reagan). Anyway, it is unlikely to obtain obedience to attack Poland or the Baltics because of a few thousands of RPGs sent to Ukraine. I genuinely think that the high command came to the conclusion of lost cause (including the Defence Minister, the Chief of Staff). I don't have a link to this, but it seems that the original plan was replacing the government of Ukraine and capturing the coastal line (with the installations) in ten days. It failed. They might try to do it in three weeks, but I think they are seeking a way out without much propaganda defeat.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 14:16:20 GMT
Firstly I'd like to restate three points: 1/ We (the West) should be targeting Putin and his cronies NOT all Russians (we want the vast majority of Russians to turn against Putin) 2/ We (UK) should be levelling up on who is targeted as we (the West) want to act in a coordinated fashion 3/ Progressive escalation in breadth and scope, with 'notice', does IMO have merits over hitting everyone with any links to Putin with everything all in one go (coz after that we've turned into a potential asset into someone who no longer has anything to lose by backing Putin) Anyway, with that said, then moving from 'freezing' to 'seizing' is a step we should take in due course and I especially like:
'Ukrainians fleeing their homeland could be housed in the lavish UK residences of oligarchs hit with sanctions'
www.ft.com/content/71a856af-061b-49cc-8c30-7819d2296f96
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 14:22:04 GMT
I'm sure they do. It is not too complicated as long as there is manpower (drivers) to deliver them in single vans and lorries (not columns). There are many strange roads/paths in the Eastern side of Ukraine, and they cannot be monitored by the number of Russian soldiers they have (in the night). This is why, although there is shortage of food, there is food in the sieged cities. I guess one of the possible points of friction involving Nato/West and Russia will be if Odessa is blockaded.
As is always the case in war, what is going on on the ground is unclear. From what's being reported the Ukrainians have focused their defence/supplies on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russia does not seem to be coordinating its forces well, in the North at least. But maybe that large force north of Kyiv is there to tie down Ukrainian forces while they roll up the South? All that is certain is that civilians are paying a very very high price.
Geo-politically the big player is China. Western intelligence sources are claiming they (China) knew about the attack in advance and it was delayed to avoid messing with the Olympics. That does make sense as logically, the Russian would have wanted to attack in mid-Feb when the ground would have bee a bit harder (the area where the column is is actually in the SW corner/edge of the marsh lands), also the delay may have allowed for more Western military aid to get through. I do think/fear looking to China to intervene to stop this is a bit of a forlorn hope. They share much of Putin's critique of the West and will see parallels between the Ukraine and Taiwan. Also on a number of issues China has demonstrated their own lack of concern for 'international opinion'.Russia wants the coast and a replacement of the government. They have limited time to do it, and they are behind, so I think they are seeking way out. And yes, it was a warmer winter, but from the very beginning they tried to use helicopters and parachutes (so that was the plan), but instead of having 10,000, they just had a regiment for the purpose. Whether it was a calculation mistake or incompetence, or bad intelligence service - who knows. (Not really relevant, but at the Suez crisis the British Commander of Staff meetings were full of debates that were around the same problem. Had they had more parachutes, had the port had larger capacity, etc... China, although officially didn't condemn the invasions, and obviously didn't join the sanctions, keeps on talking about peaceful resolution, and didn't vote "against" in the UN meeting.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 14:26:01 GMT
Firstly I'd like to restate three points: 1/ We (the West) should be targeting Putin and his cronies NOT all Russians (we want the vast majority of Russians to turn against Putin) 2/ We (UK) should be levelling up on who is targeted as we (the West) want to act in a coordinated fashion 3/ Progressive escalation in breadth and scope, with 'notice', does IMO have merits over hitting everyone with any links to Putin with everything all in one go (coz after that we've turned into a potential asset into someone who no longer has anything to lose by backing Putin) Anyway, with that said, then moving from 'freezing' to 'seizing' is a step we should take in due course and I especially like:
'Ukrainians fleeing their homeland could be housed in the lavish UK residences of oligarchs hit with sanctions'
www.ft.com/content/71a856af-061b-49cc-8c30-7819d2296f96Yes, but the world is more complex. In Bratislava, in the Soviet military cemetery (it is one of the sights of the city), some painted the main building to the Ukrainian flag's colours. The police is involved in finding the "damagers", but that could create divisions. I wanted to hold this back, but because of the points you raised, it is kind of relevant.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 3, 2022 14:35:14 GMT
“The Kremlin is holding 36 satellites owned by the British taxpayer-backed company OneWeb hostage in a stand-off over the war in Ukraine.
Roscosmos, the Russian state space agency, is refusing to go ahead with a scheduled launch of the satellites unless the Government sells its stake in OneWeb and it receives assurances that the business is not used for military purposes.
The move threatens to derail efforts by the company to deliver a spaceborne broadband network by the end of the year as it seems to take on rival Starlink, owned by Elon Musk.”
DT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 3, 2022 14:44:46 GMT
Also in the DT, an article about the targeting of medical facilities and even rescue workers in Syria, and how it might be happening in Ukraine.
“Before he died, I had a number of conversations with James le Mesurier, the former British solider who co-founded Syria’s White Helmets civil defence group.
The White Helmets were rescue workers - their job simply to save lives and haul civilians out of buildings after airstrikes.
But after Russia entered the Syrian war in 2015, they became a prime target for both Russia’s military and propaganda efforts.
On the battlefield, Russia’s airforce began using “double tap” raids to kill rescuers responding to an earlier airstrike.
Meanwhile, its diplomats and media launched a ruthless propaganda campaign depicting the group as al Qaeda-linked...”
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 3, 2022 14:46:43 GMT
“What on earth, I asked him, had the Russians against a rescue service?
It was simple, he explained.
Medical infrastructure - hospitals, doctors, emergency response services - make communities resilient.”
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 3, 2022 16:00:11 GMT
Hi @laszlo
Russia wants the coast and a replacement of the government. They have limited time to do it, and they are behind, so I think they are seeking way out.
I try and hesitate to make any conclusions now about what Russia wants. Their objectives may change over time and based on what Moscow thinks is achievable. Before they invaded and initially I thought this was all about Moscow's perception of time, and that they were against the clock. Now I'm not so sure. Perhaps Assad's experience in Syria has shown them they can batter the enemy in to submission. As one of the commentators on Sky news said, initially they tried to do it the way the West would, with small fast moving light columns and helicopters to capture key objectives, it failed and they have gone back to their tried and tested approach.
China's has much more of an interest in Russia 'winning' and will not want to see Putin's regime toppled perhaps replaced by a pro-western one. I fear this conflict could go on for a long time.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 17:26:53 GMT
Hi @laszlo Russia wants the coast and a replacement of the government. They have limited time to do it, and they are behind, so I think they are seeking way out.I try and hesitate to make any conclusions now about what Russia wants. Their objectives may change over time and based on what Moscow thinks is achievable. Before they invaded and initially I thought this was all about Moscow's perception of time, and that they were against the clock. Now I'm not so sure. Perhaps Assad's experience in Syria has shown them they can batter the enemy in to submission. As one of the commentators on Sky news said, initially they tried to do it the way the West would, with small fast moving light columns and helicopters to capture key objectives, it failed and they have gone back to their tried and tested approach. China's has much more of an interest in Russia 'winning' and will not want to see Putin's regime toppled perhaps replaced by a pro-western one. I fear this conflict could go on for a long time. From the BBC - "Russia's negotiating position - according to the country's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov - is that: 1.Ukraine must "demilitarise" and "deNazify" 2. Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014 - is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia 3. Two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic - are formally recognised" I don't see any reason to doubt this. By "demilitarise" and "deNazify" they mean regime change, with a new 'puppet' president. Yanukovich has even been suggested. However they have also said that if Ukraine won't accede to these demands immediately then they will make additional demands. I think Zelensky could accept 2 & 3, with some token commitments on 1, but Putin would never accept that. I think the war will now continue until Russia has taken everything east of the Dnipro plus Kiev itself, with a bit of a buffer. How long that takes will depend a lot on how long Zelensky can evade capture or being killed. I hope I'm wrong.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 3, 2022 17:44:39 GMT
Hi johntel will Putin actually be satisfied with that or does he literally want to wipe it off the map as a country in its own right? Does he want to go to to Moldova? Has he totally lost it? I think there is always a danger that we attribute a fixity of purpose to actors, that they a consistent and don't change their views or objectives. I really don't know what Putin is thinking, or was when he decided to do this. I don't know if he is rational or has lost it. What I see is women and children fleeing, towns and cities being destroyed and no indication of how and when this will end.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 19:34:27 GMT
None of this is easy but some info for your questions in below link and the others questions are for NATO leaders. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60606515PS Just noticed others have already replied. However, since you asked me then I have also replied. Thanks-the use of it to hide the attack on Odessa is gone. Sky News reporting that this has started. I appreciate you feel NATO are not doing enough but we are not doing nothing. Turkey have taken some measures[1] WRT to sea access and whilst I appreciate Putin doesn't need that route to block Ukraine's access to the sea (which was clearly one of his goals once we attacked the West side of the Dnieper (ie at the point he made clear his intention to take the whole of Ukraine rather than just another slice of East Ukraine)), then that was a bold decision by Turkey that only Turkey could make (and for a while it looked like they wouldn't take the decision that they did) What would you have UK do - unilaterally, in a military context - that we are not already doing? If NATO decide that NATO has been attacked then, and only then, do I think we should directly engage (eg set up and enforce a 'no fly' zone knowing that would mean shooting down Russian planes and almost certain escalation in geographic and scale of warfare terms). If Putin then escalates it further then we will have to respond further but IMHO the risks of pre-emptive escalation in a non-NATO country would risk NATO unanimity and cohesion, also risk bringing in China on the side of Russia, etc (obviously we can't be sure but the risks are IMO too high). So I have no desire for UK to act unilaterally in any direct manner (indirect assistance such as giving Ukrainians weapons, intel and anything and everything else short of 'direct' military intervention). I've posted the polling that shows that is also what majority of people want to see and we need to ensure our actions are 'legitimate' and have the long-term support of the public. More than prepared to agree to disagree and I obviously respect you, Tobias Ellwood and everyone else is entitled to your own opinion on this and all matters. [1] www.euronews.com/2022/03/01/respect-closure-of-black-sea-access-turkey-tells-ukraine-and-russia
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 19:42:38 GMT
@tw
I would like to see NATO level the playing field for Ukraine and try to stop the civilian attacks . We are watching this one sided blitzkrieg like some awful video game.
So -take out their means of heavy bombardment-artillary , rocket & missile bases.??
Ihave no mil;itary expertise -but state that as the objective. If this can be done by remote means-drones and missiles-then preferable.
I get it that planes are likely to meet Russian planes-so accept that as last resort.
Given that objective met , Ukraine seems able to take on their tanks etc
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 20:23:38 GMT
@tw I would like to see NATO level the playing field for Ukraine and try to stop the civilian attacks . We are watching this one sided blitzkrieg like some awful video game. So -take out their means of heavy bombardment-artillary , rocket & missile bases.?? Ihave no mil;itary expertise -but state that as the objective. If this can be done by remote means-drones and missiles-then preferable. I get it that planes are likely to meet Russian planes-so accept that as last resort. Given that objective met , Ukraine seems able to take on their tanks etc Well NATO has plenty of these: www.airforce-technology.com/projects/predator-uav/I'd have no issue if Ukraine was given some of those[1] along with weapons to attack Russian rocket and missile bases within Ukraine (or that convoy of tanks outside of Kyiv) as IMO that would still come under 'indirect' assistance. @laszlo might know the geography the best but the 'base' for those bad boys is small and mobile and they can take off and land in little more than a field. Perhaps we're training up Ukrainians[2], outside of Ukraine, how to use those C21 weapons and they'll be deployed soon. I hope so but obviously don't know if we are. That wouldn't 'level the playing field' given the huge amount of resources Putin has put in Ukraine already, has available in the Black Sea and has in reserve and it might cause escalation but I do think there is more we can do 'indirectly' even in a limited military manner. Shutting off the flow of money into Russia (ie stopping the purchase of Russian gas/oil/coal) being the key 'sanction' that would be better late than never. [1] Outdated planes with untrained pilots was a daft idea. They would have been very easy targets of huge propaganda value to Putin when his modern planes with highly trained pilots knocked them straight out of the sky. Might have also risked escalation (given they'd have had to have flown from a NATO base) for no realistic benefit. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-war-eu-diplomats-plan-to-send-aircraft-derided-as-absurd-p5fwkrmv2[2] Or we're searching through appropriately skilled NATO forces for anyone with any Ukrainian links or language ability, or just prepared to go into Ukraine without official authorisation from any NATO country. Those puppies are a bit trickier to operate than a SAM (Surface to Air Missile) but there are options available to ensure they are used effectively with no 'obvious' direct link back to NATO.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 20:37:37 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 20:44:49 GMT
Forbes link gives a click thru to the running totals of weapons sent by NATO (and some non-NATO) countries. WOW, that is a lot of hardware and great to see how extensive that list is (I mentioned Scandinavian countries t'other day). I hope it all gets to the people who need it and that resupply lines stay viable. Other items that might not be on the list for 'secrecy' reasons or yet to be deployed perhaps? www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 20:57:20 GMT
Given the importance of US and how Biden will be aware of public opinion then interesting to keep an eye on US opinion polling IMO.
Two-thirds of Americans support economic sanctions against Russia and Putin after Ukraine invasion today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/03/02/americans-support-economic-sanctions-russiaEncouraging but note the caveats: - "While 67% of Americans say they would approve of the U.S imposing additional sanctions, that breaks down into two groups of sanction supporters with a crucial difference: 27% of Americans would approve of the sanctions only if they don’t cause gas prices in the U.S. to rise, while 40% say they would support more sanctions even if they resulted in higher gas prices - Most Americans continue to oppose sending U.S. troops to Ukraine to engage in combat - There is some support for enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, without specifics for how enforcement would work"
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2022 22:37:10 GMT
Hi johntel will Putin actually be satisfied with that or does he literally want to wipe it off the map as a country in its own right? Does he want to go to to Moldova? Has he totally lost it? I think there is always a danger that we attribute a fixity of purpose to actors, that they a consistent and don't change their views or objectives. I really don't know what Putin is thinking, or was when he decided to do this. I don't know if he is rational or has lost it. What I see is women and children fleeing, towns and cities being destroyed and no indication of how and when this will end. lululemonmustdobetter I'm sure he'd like to rule the world if he could - but uniting the Russian-speaking peoples into a single federation is his goal. So I don't think he'd be too bothered about the western part of Ukraine, and anyway the terrain is difficult there. Moldova is only 10% Russia speaking - I think the Russian bits of Estonia and Latvia would be higher priority, though I don't actually think he'd risk trying to grab them. Most important of all are the symbols of Russian power and history - Kiev, Odessa and Sevastopol (which he's already got of course).
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 3, 2022 22:46:37 GMT
I suppose we have to be grateful for this, although the whole business is just deeply depressing:
"The Pentagon has established communication with the Russian ministry of defense, “for the purpose of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation”, a defense official told the AP. That such a “deconfliction” line has been established has not been officially announced yet, but multiple news organizations have confirmed the news. The line was reportedly established on 1 March. The line would allow US and Russian forces to avoid crossing paths along the Polish border and the Black Sea, for example, while Russia advances on Ukraine. The US and Russia had set up a similar line of communication in the Syrian conflict after Russia began military action there."
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 7:55:07 GMT
Article on the nuclear situation. Heritage is a right-wing American think tank, so beware, but I have no reason to doubt the factual content. www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/answers-6-big-questions-about-putins-nuclear-threatsTo summarise: "Does the United States have an adequate missile defense system in place under the worst-case scenario to defend itself or to defend allies from a Russian nuclear attack? Many Americans find it hard to believe that we have no way to defend against a major Russian nuclear attack. The U.S. missile defense system is designed to defend against limited nuclear attacks from rogue states such as North Korea. We have 44 homeland interceptors that could not defend against Russia’s hundreds of nuclear missiles." So there's nothing to stop Putin holding the world to ransom.
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Post by birdseye on Mar 4, 2022 10:45:44 GMT
I wonder if we are sanctioning the oligarchs simply because they are the only Russian "thing" we can actually get at? Seems to me that the oligarchs are dependant on Putin and not the other way round as suggested by what happened to Khodorkovsky, So likely we arent putting pressure on Putin but driving the oligarchs into his hands.
Economic sanctions have never worked anywhere ( just look at N Korea) and are only likely to feed back into Putins dialogue of Russaphobia. Could strengthen his position in Russia. The rational thing to do is maybe to let him have his buffer of either friendly or demiltarised states on the border with Nato members. He might well be deluded or even unbalanced in which case he is best in an "asylum" of his own design.
Supplying arms to Ukraine really is throwing petrol on a fire since the Ukranians simply cannot win outright and a long term guerilla war in occupied Ukraine will mean long term uncertainty and risk in Europe.
Might not be easily supported in the west but forcing the Ukraine into a deal on something near Putins terms might be best for all of us.
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