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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:10:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:20:37 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:31:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:36:54 GMT
1. What an extraordinary change in Germany from all those years of accommodating Ostpolitik. Pacifism abandoned -a credible NATO contributor at last-but still latched to the Putin gas teat for some time to come. Uncomfortable. -no less than UK's embarrassing attempt to distance from Oligarch assets and political contributions. What a Damascene Conversion the West is going through ! 2. Putin's game plan moving ahead in Mariupol and Volnovakha-cities encircled and flattened. Then let the civilians they didn't kill out in a "humanitarian " gesture-215k people to join the 1.2 million refugees and god knows how many internally displaced. You only have to see the news from Poland to see these are the young western facing families who are the children of Maidan-the centre of Putin's hatred. How many more to come ? 4 million they say ? 1. Plenty of historic embarrassment for most countries (incl. UK) but the damascene-conversion is 'half-hearted'. I've stated my views on the risk of alienating potential allies within Russia (given the best possible outcome is Russia deals with the Putin problem internally) but in a show of coordinated effort then UK should 'level-up' sanctions maybe as a 'quid pro quo' for C-E Europe banning imports of Russian gas/oil/coal. A coordinated effort is the key as Putin and his cronies can exploit 'cracks' and will seek to create division. 2. Creating a refugee crisis is likely a twisted part of Putin's 'hybrid warfare' strategy as he perhaps thinks it will weaken 'Western' resolve? However, as per his expectations on Russian military success and Ukrainian resistance then he has been proven wrong again. --- Far too early to look too far ahead but at some point in the, hopefully near, future then Ukraine will be rebuilt using Russian money (those Russian central bank assets post a 'trial' where reparation costs are awarded perhaps?) and Russia will have a country of 44million people on their doorstep who despise Russia - far more than they ever did before. NATO members who hadn't been spending 2%+ on defence will start spending more. NATO might well expand to include Ukraine, Georgia, Finland, etc. Belarus will be 3/4 surrounded by countries who despise Lukashenko (and he has plenty of his own people who despise him). Too early of course but I try to look for the long-term upsides. How Putin can politically survive his failing war is TBC but I continue to think that stopping the future flow of money into Russia is #1 priority and the small amount of financial pain that will cause C-E Europe, UK and other energy importers pails into insignificance compared to the ongoing atrocities in Ukraine. To stand with Ukraine we need to stop sending Putin hard currency to fund his war. (#2 priority being to continue to give Ukraine every 'indirect' military assistance we can. I appreciate Zelensky is trying to shame NATO into a 'direct' military involvement and as President of Ukraine I respect why he is doing that but I don't see NATO budging on that and UK is not going to act unilaterally)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:42:23 GMT
Somewhat strange, but maybe encouraging news on Meduza: there was no artillery attack on any of the Ukrainian cities overnight.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 10:49:01 GMT
China[1] didn't back Russia at the UN and a large reason why US/NATO/UK/EU/etc need to ensure Russia is as isolated as possible. India have been disappointing and I wouldn't be opposed to 'bribing' them to get off the fence and onto our side. The four countries that backed Russia were: Belarus, Syria, NK and Eritrea. Not much 'support' for Putin but we want the 'neutrals' to at least stay neutral or preferably join our side. I wouldn't object to 'hybrid warfare' methods to knock Lukashenko out of the war (reminds me of Mussolini and Italy's involvement in WW2) [1] I'm no fan off China but my enemy's enemy is my friend at times of war.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 5, 2022 11:42:33 GMT
As this is a polling site it is interesting to post the following. It comes from a RUSI analysis suggesting why the Russians might have been expecting Ukraine to be a push over. The whole thing is well worth reading, but on the polling bit: "Ukraine in February 2022 According to the polling data, Ukrainians in early February were, by and large, pessimistic about the future and apathetic about politics, and did not trust politicians, political parties or the majority of Ukraine’s domestic institutions. Their main concerns were overwhelmingly inflation and the cost of living, with both perceived to be rising. Trust in the office of the president sat at 27%, with 67% distrustful of the presidency. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had poor approval ratings at −34, but a high proportion of Ukrainians polled still professed that they would vote for him over other candidates. The Ukrainian Army, both regular and reserve, was highly trusted, with 68% of the population supportive, as were military veterans, while regional and municipal governments were comparatively well-trusted with over 40% of the population having a favourable opinion of them. However, other institutions enjoyed approval figures that ranged from mediocre to poor, including the police at 28% and domestic security services at 23%. Trust in the Rada – the Ukrainian parliament – and in political parties was abysmal, at 11% and 8% respectively. And when it came to willingness to serve in the military or otherwise resist a foreign invasion, 40% of respondents stated that they would not defend Ukraine." That last part is interesting. It reminds me of the Oxford Union passing that motion "This house would not fight for King and Country" in the mid-1930s. Of course in reality most of them did so only a few years later, and the shock of invasion has had the same impact on the Ukrainians. rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 11:44:04 GMT
Luke Harding Ukraine’s armed forces claim to have shot down a Russian military helicopter this morning. Its operative command released video of a missile hitting a low-flying helicopter which crashed seconds later.
This is incredible footage of a missile hitting a Russian helicopter posted on Guardian live blog. Frightening and sobering actually seeing the moment the pilot will have died. Something very remarkable here; that Russian helicopter has no missile detection and/or no countermeasures (like flares). Any NATO military helicopter would have both (even helicopters used for transport as opposed to attack helicopters). No way would any of our helicopters be flown in a hostile environment without any form of protection. It raises the question why the Russian Army logistics is so bad. Even with 'protection' then a modern SAM launched at fairly close range is hard to block. Not every SAM will get a hit but if Ukrainian forces are given plenty of SAMs (and anti-tank weapons) to fire then it becomes a numbers game that Ukraine can win. What is clear is that Russia does not have 'control of the sky'[1] but as well as Russian military incompetence then the credit goes to Ukrainians in putting up a very fierce resistance. Secondary credit to all the countries who have sent and continue to send weapons to Ukrainians so that they can defend themselves. [1] Hence unclear what a NATO enforced 'no fly zone' would achieve beyond the near certainty of significant escalation in scope of weaponry and countries directly involved.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 11:46:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 12:25:09 GMT
Just looking at the headline - Germany & France? The UK have handed the house keys to Russia but it is somehow down to Germany & France. More useful idiot stuff I suspect.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 12:45:09 GMT
--- Far too early to look too far ahead but at some point in the, hopefully near, future then Ukraine will be rebuilt using Russian money (those Russian central bank assets post a 'trial' where reparation costs are awarded perhaps?) and Russia will have a country of 44million people on their doorstep who despise Russia I agree it is. But I dont see a free Ukraine on the horizon. An occupied one. Resistant as you suggest. But with its cities wrecked one presumes that will have to organise in the countryside away from the occupiers.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 12:47:21 GMT
China[1] didn't back Russia at the UN They didnt vote against it either. I was just suggesting a more clearly defined world of Democracy v Autocracy now-with Russia moving rapidly into the latter.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 12:53:35 GMT
Very sobering read.. Did tyou see the Times reference to the "Suwalki Gap" ?. A short tank drive from Belarus to the Kaliningrad enclave cuts the Baltic States off from Poland
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 13:15:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 13:25:03 GMT
colin Replies to your replies: 1. If Russian soldiers were told they were liberating Ukrainians then this is the reality that their occupying forces are seeing and that is from the places that were more 'Russian' 2. Putin's Russia was always in the 'autocracy' book IMO (as is China). I'm against forcing regime change externally (mostly as it doesn't work and the aftermath of the power vacuum can be worse than the pre-existing regime, with a bloody journey to get there). However, I'm very supportive of 'change from within' and temporary 'ends justify the means' accommodations to ensure our enemy's possible friends (eg China, India) are either neutral or ideally our friends in isolating Putin and potentially/eventually seeing the end of Putin (and Lukashenko) 3. The Times link: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baltic-countries-mind-the-gap-rqxl3kn6dIf a Russian (or Belarusian) tank enters that gap then that is an invasion onto NATO soil. Article 5 is triggered and we can, with full legitimacy in the eyes of the World, unleash every NATO plane and other forces being built up in E.Europe onto Russia and Belarus. Support an uprising in Belarus and Kalingrad independence if that what the people in that polity want (see #2) You posted an article recently WRT to Kalingrad independence and who knows but their 'pro-Western' views go back a few years: www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/may/31/kaliningrad-the-russian-enclave-with-a-taste-for-europe Maybe Putin loses Kalingrad? IMO he's bittern off more than he chew in Ukraine but if one toe-cap crosses into a NATO country (from Belarus) then that would IMO be the 'excuse' that NATO is maybe waiting for. It would IMO be a huge tactical mistake for Putin and his puppet Lukashenko to open a 2nd front even if wasn't against a NATO country but to invade a NATO country would force NATO to respond. I'm certainly going to wish for that to happen but if it does then you'll see that 'no fly zone' over Ukraine come in and be enforced pretty quick as every Russian military asset would then be 'fair game' for NATO forces. 4. For now then SAMs is all NATO (and non-NATO) countries are giving Ukraine but it seems clear that Putin does not have full control of the sky and that is hampering his progress. IF Ukraine can beat Russia in a 'contained' and 'conventional' war then that is a massive win for democracy (at a high cost but probably a lower cost than the risk of escalation in geographic and weaponry scope).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 13:30:29 GMT
Thanks-meanwhile Ukrainian civilians continue to die
And Putin is calling up Reservists reportedly :-
"Russia is recruiting the reserve of the Russian Armed Forces to the war against Ukraine The order was signed on 22 January 2022. According to the order, by April 20, the heads of mobilization departments must verify the registration cards of reserve services, and gather them at the mobilization departments. The document was published by Russian businessman and public figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Facebook."
Ukraine Crisis Media Centre
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 14:05:26 GMT
Thanks-meanwhile Ukrainian civilians continue to die And Putin is calling up Reservists reportedly :- "Russia is recruiting the reserve of the Russian Armed Forces to the war against Ukraine The order was signed on 22 January 2022. According to the order, by April 20, the heads of mobilization departments must verify the registration cards of reserve services, and gather them at the mobilization departments. The document was published by Russian businessman and public figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Facebook." Ukraine Crisis Media Centre Sadly When the rich wage war, it's the poor who diePutin is cutting off external media but is Russia 2020s the same Russia as 1940s? How many Russian's want to die in a foreign land as an occupying force all for one man's ego? www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russiaRevolutions have started and swept 'the rich' from power when they have such disregard for their own people! Tsar Putin might find out that whilst history doesn't repeat it often rhymes. www.history.com/news/romanov-family-murder-execution-reasonsNB I'm against external regime change, not against people seeking new leadership to free themselves from a dictatorship. I'd rather Putin faces a war crimes tribunal than be assassinated but whatever means are expedient would IMO would justify the end.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 14:15:43 GMT
Thanks-meanwhile Ukrainian civilians continue to die And Putin is calling up Reservists reportedly :- "Russia is recruiting the reserve of the Russian Armed Forces to the war against Ukraine The order was signed on 22 January 2022. According to the order, by April 20, the heads of mobilization departments must verify the registration cards of reserve services, and gather them at the mobilization departments. The document was published by Russian businessman and public figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Facebook." Ukraine Crisis Media Centre Sadly When the rich wage war, it's the poor who diePutin is cutting off external media but is Russia 2020s the same Russia as 1940s? How many Russian's want to die in a foreign land as an occupying force all for one man's ego? www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russiaRevolutions have started and swept 'the rich' from power when they have such disregard for their own people! Tsar Putin might find out that whilst history doesn't repeat it often rhymes. www.history.com/news/romanov-family-murder-execution-reasonsNB I'm against external regime change, not against people seeking new leadership to free themselves from a dictatorship. I'd rather Putin faces a war crimes tribunal than be assassinated but whatever means are expedient would IMO would justify the end. He is certainly isolating his country and people. IMO he is pressing on in Ukraine at whatever cost. He told Macron this. He wants to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign country-he wrote that it has no reason to exist. Where that leads to in Moscow and Russia generally I have no idea.
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Post by shevii on Mar 5, 2022 15:03:40 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 15:46:27 GMT
Disgraceful. They are looking to make a very dirty $20million profit on that after having done the 'right thing' last week that is a massive own goal in Public Relation (brand) terms and I hope they are vilified by the press and folks fill their cars up with someone else (although not Esso or Total unless they're changed approach in the last few days) This tweet sums it up (and the same applies to Russian gas/coal and those who are still buying that of course) PS I'd be curious where Shell intend to offload that crude and refine it. That $28.50 discount per barrel might end up being a $85 per barrel lose (+carry costs) if they can't offload and refine the Russian crude oil somewhere.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 5, 2022 19:25:37 GMT
It’s quite an about turn, isn’t it. Though I did read elsewhere it’s possible that the remaining nuclear reactors might be a bit too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably? Be interesting to see what plans they might have for new Nuclear, any SMRs etc.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 5, 2022 21:08:12 GMT
Article in the Times
‘The war has thrown into sharp relief the potential — and the pitfalls — of cryptocurrency. On the one hand, the utility of borderless, digital currencies that can be sent across the world with a couple of keystrokes has perhaps never been more clear. The flipside is that politicians and regulators have suddenly awoken to the reality that bad actors can also use them: in this case, potentially to evade the sanctions that America, Britain and the EU have slapped on billionaires, oligarchs and politicians with links to Putin.”
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 5, 2022 21:39:06 GMT
Article in the Times ‘The war has thrown into sharp relief the potential — and the pitfalls — of cryptocurrency. On the one hand, the utility of borderless, digital currencies that can be sent across the world with a couple of keystrokes has perhaps never been more clear. The flipside is that politicians and regulators have suddenly awoken to the reality that bad actors can also use them: in this case, potentially to evade the sanctions that America, Britain and the EU have slapped on billionaires, oligarchs and politicians with links to Putin.” Crypto-currencies are just a huge speculative bubble of no intrinsic value. They are worth only what someone will pay for them. Even Elon Musk can radically affect their worth with one tweet. It shouldn't be too difficult for Governments to annihilate their value completely if they choose to.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2022 9:31:48 GMT
Though I did read elsewhere it’s possible that the remaining nuclear reactors might be a bit too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably? Be interesting to see what plans they might have for new Nuclear, any SMRs etc. See: "Yes, you can extend the life-span of the nuclear-fired power plants ... if there's the (political) will and the operators are on board," www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-germany-keep-its-nuclear-plants-running-2022-02-28/and note how we've extended the life of nuclear plants in UK. Many of German ones were shut down, or are planned to be shut down, early. All covered before but if you have a link that says "too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably" then please post. A large amount of the 'cost' of a nuclear plant is in it's build and decommissioning (both of which have to happen at some point). Running costs are very low. Therefore shutting them down early, or not extending their life, is very expensive to do - especially if that means you're then importing more Russian gas and (and it is and) burning more coal. Power production only (ie doesn't show heat): www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig2a-gross-power-production-germany-1990-2021-source.png?TBC what they do but as the pressure builds to ban Russian gas/oil/coal then they'll make to those decisions quite quickly and I appreciate the massive epiphany they have had will take a bit of time to work through to a massively revised Energiewende[1] that considers 'Energy Security' as the priority PS Not just Germany of course. Others in C-E Europe and UK have ignored the importance of Energy Security. You posted some comments on main thread recently about the need to reconsider the neoliberal 'free trade' model and I note Peston has worked it out as well (not that I'd give Putin any credit then he has certainly woken people up and been a catalyst for change) Peston: How Putin has killed globalisation and what that means for uswww.itv.com/news/2022-03-03/peston-how-putin-has-killed-globalisation-and-what-that-means-for-us[1] Easy Guide to the old (current) one: www.cleanenergywire.org/easyguide
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2022 9:44:34 GMT
Article in the Times ‘The war has thrown into sharp relief the potential — and the pitfalls — of cryptocurrency. On the one hand, the utility of borderless, digital currencies that can be sent across the world with a couple of keystrokes has perhaps never been more clear. The flipside is that politicians and regulators have suddenly awoken to the reality that bad actors can also use them: in this case, potentially to evade the sanctions that America, Britain and the EU have slapped on billionaires, oligarchs and politicians with links to Putin.” Not so much Britain! Maybe coz we know that sanctions on moving money around the World are easy to evade. Still, best not point out the obvious to Starmer-Lammy and Guardian readers who are obsessed with copying the list of names from whoever is 'one-up' on the biggest list of names Sounds 'big and tough' to put out a big list of names but when you're still sending €€billions every month into Russia to fund Putin's war and given it is easy to 'evade the sanctions' then I'd prefer action that can't be evaded (specifically a ban on Russian gas/oil/coal) PS I have conceded that for 'coordination and unity' then UK should increase the list of names even if I think it is a distraction from the important issue, largely ineffective and means some potential lose of persuadable anti-Putin forces. I do note Starmer's new found desire to cut through legal processes though and the way some lawyers have frustrated govt in the past. Careful what you wish for there but I'd be fine with more stream lined legal processes (just surprised to see Starmer pushing it)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 6, 2022 10:05:18 GMT
Though I did read elsewhere it’s possible that the remaining nuclear reactors might be a bit too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably? Be interesting to see what plans they might have for new Nuclear, any SMRs etc. “All covered before but if you have a link that says "too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably" then please post.” I didn’t say it was definitive Trev, I indicated I’d read something to suggest there was a possibility they MIGHT be too far down the road. It was in the Telegraph. “Yet despite suggestions of extending nuclear plants’ lifelines, there are doubts over whether it is even possible given how far Germany already is in the decommissioning process. Energy companies E.ON, RWE and EnBW, which own Isar 2, Emsland and Neckarwestheim 2, have said they would not be ready for next winter and that questions remain over safety and fuel supplies. A spokesman for E.ON told a local news outlet: “The continued operation of our Isar 2 nuclear power plant beyond the legal deadline of 2022 is not an option for us.” Other operators were similarly non-committal, although Liebreich insists that workarounds may be possible if enough political willpower is mustered.”
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 6, 2022 10:12:06 GMT
Though I did read elsewhere it’s possible that the remaining nuclear reactors might be a bit too far down the road of decommissioning to turn things around viably? Be interesting to see what plans they might have for new Nuclear, any SMRs etc. A large amount of the 'cost' of a nuclear plant is in it's build and decommissioning (both of which have to happen at some point). Running costs are very low. Running costs could be a lot lower if they moved to molten salt reactors*. In traditional reactors, the fuel is in pellets encased in rods. Xenon gas is released fracturing the pellets over time and they have to be expensively reprocessed. Only maybe one or two percent of the fuel gets used before reprocessing is required. with molten salt the fuel is effectively dissolved within the coolant. There are no pellets or rods, the gas can bubble away, and you get 98 or 99% fuel use. Much cheaper and more efficient. But this might give one reason why the nuclear industry hasn’t rushed to embrace molten salt. They’d lose the income from reprocessing. * As in a Thorium reactor
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2022 10:21:15 GMT
I didn’t say it was definitive Trev, I indicated I’d read something to suggest there was a possibility they that some of them MIGHT be too far down the road.... Liebreich insists that workarounds may be possible if enough political willpower is mustered.” It will vary by reactor of course but the key is certainly 'political willpower'. Time is obviously also important and some will take longer (and be harder) to restart than others (next Winter will come around pretty quick!). Some should never restart and many that do will not return to their previous output levels (similar to what we've seen in UK with 'extended life' plants). There is also the question of the three plants that are still operating that are supposed to be closed down this year. Germany is not our polity but due to the interconnected nature of Energy supplies in Europe (and the World due to LNG and Crude oil being 'global' commodities) and our own negligence over 'Energy Security' then whatever big decisions are made (or not made) in interconnected polities impact UK (and more importantly weaken the West in their ability to stop funding Putin's war) Cynical view perhaps but Putin attacking nuclear power station in Ukraine is possibly to ensure the 'fear' of nuclear doesn't shift opinion in German political willpower WRT to nuclear? (ie Putin needs to keep C-E Europe dependent on his gas)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 6, 2022 10:29:08 GMT
@tw
Yes we shall see if there is enough political willpower, and indeed if willpower is enough.
One advantage of our SMR plans is that it seems they can be built on existing sites, which presumably helps in terms of building new facilities more quickly and cheaply?
(Regarding security, it’s possible it might be easier to build smaller reactors underground etc.? With Molten salt it could be quite a lot easier, as you don’t need all the fuel rods, and containment domes needed for pressurised water reactors etc. - they were originally designed to be compact enough for aircraft.)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2022 11:04:08 GMT
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