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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 10:39:23 GMT
Part of visibly making Russia a 'pariah' state is not allowing them to host major sporting events. Governing bodies need to act but step1 is countries pulling their teams from competing so whilst very minor then I'm glad to see (largely to show 'global' aspects) Skiing-Japan pulls out of Russia ski cross World Cup eventwww.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/skiing-japan-pulls-out-russia-ski-cross-world-cup-event-2022-02-25/What we need now is the 'snowball' effect! Of more significance then also very glad to see: The 2021/22 UEFA Men’s Champions League final will move from Saint Petersburg to Stade de France in Saint-Denis.
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 25, 2022 11:59:01 GMT
Only too true, and why I expect Iran will now rush to finish their development of nuclear weapons; as Iraq, Libya and now Ukraine have shown, a country that gives up a nuclear weapon capability is vulnerable to attack. No chance of nuclear disarmament for at least another generation now I think. I don't think the US and Israel will allow that to happen leftie I'm not convinced they will be able to stop them. I cannot see the US invading Iran, when they couldn't make a success of the much simpler Afghanistan and if Israel attacks, they will have to use nukes to destroy Iran's underground facilities. Iran's Houthi rebels in Yemen can already hit oil installations on the shores of the Persian Gulf, and that's a similar distance to Tel Aviv. Plus you have the Syrians, backed by the Russians, who would be quite happy to allow Hizbollah to attack Israel territory if Israel started a war against Iran.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 12:36:34 GMT
While Turkey will let the Russian ships through (as they are going to their home base - so, under the treaty they have to), Erdogan criticised NATO and the EU for being too soft on Russia.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 13:08:49 GMT
While Turkey will let the Russian ships through (as they are going to their home base - so, under the treaty they have to), Erdogan criticised NATO and the EU for being too soft on Russia. 'Erdogan says NATO, Western reaction to Russian attack not decisive'www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-says-nato-western-reaction-russian-attack-not-decisive-2022-02-25/and he's right. NATO/West should have agreed their action plan in advance, instead it's tea+biscuits today starting at 3pm (37hours late) with a presser at 5pm www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_192464.htm?Turkey isn't going to act unilaterally while rNATO is having a very belated chat amongst themselves. Events have altered what can still realistically be done given how much territory (and notably airspace) is now under Russian control. I posted views on military options before the invasion started but most of those options have now gone. Even getting arms to the Ukrainians fighting for their country is going to become very difficult/near impossible soon (although we did at least give them some weapons in advance, then FWIU it was very limited and certainly below what we could have done)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 13:12:00 GMT
Yes, sorry for the lack of reference. I did read it on Reuters in the morning. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 13:50:35 GMT
Nat.gas price update: Wed- v.early Thurs (pre invasion): €89 Thur (post start of invasion): gap higher above €100 and hit a high of over €140 Today: drift back down, currently €96 www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGH22/overviewNot easy to prove market manipulation but if you want to send a message into NATO meeting then a spike followed by return of 'uncertain' calm might be the message you want heard. FWIU then Putin hasn't said exactly how he'll retaliate to sanctions imposed on Russia so far and IMO they are still pretty weak and will be ineffective so maybe he thinks NATO has done nothing and won't do anything - helping that decision by showing he can f*ck with gas price if he wants to or feels he needs to. For Biden then oil price is more of a concern and whilst that has being gone up recently then Russia has less control over that and after y'days rise prices have settled back to where they were end of last week/early this week: www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLJ22/overviewCynical view remains. We're just going to watch Putin take Ukraine and then Minsk III (although other scenarios are plausible then it feels to moi that is what many in the West hope will be the 'least bad' short-term outcome ).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 13:54:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 14:05:26 GMT
"In an address on Friday, Zelensky said he is open to talking about the possibility of a neutral status for Ukraine, but insisted that his country needs third-party guarantees, the report said.
"We are not not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk with Russia, talk about everything: security guarantees for our country and a neutral status. But we are not in NATO now -- what security guarantees will we have? Which countries will give them?" he said, before adding that there should be talks to bring an end to the Russian military offensive.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that "neutral status and rejection of hosting (offensive) weapons systems" are Putin's "red lines" for Ukraine and that the ball was now in Kiev's court."
Business Standard.
I read this as Zelensky saying-well we have no guarantees of safety from NATO/EU-so we might as well get them from Russia.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 14:06:33 GMT
Named and shamed - by one of their own! PS Starting to get annoyed by the SWIFT thing. It's putting the cart before the horse and Putin can easily get around it unless it is enforced globally. Starmer/Lammy started it off in UK, not sure US has agreed but 'optics' look good for Boris/anyone else to say he/they supports doing something that a/ is very unlikely to happen, as b/ not everyone (in NATO, G7/D10, EU or rWorld) will agree to do it (and hence a/) c/ even if it was everyone then Putin could work around that but Germany+ wouldn't be able to buy Russian gas/oil/coal and various European banks (eg SocGen, UniCredit and Raiffeisen[1]) won't be able to receive interest on the money they lent Russia (having to write down/write off that debt) - which again takes us back to b/ and a/ [1] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/western-banks-that-stuck-with-russia-face-their-biggest-test-of-nerve
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 14:22:33 GMT
I read this as Zelensky saying-well we have no guarantees of safety from NATO/EU-so we might as well get them from Russia. Zelensky becoming a puppet for Putin in return for staying president and the fighting coming to an end?? Minsk III update: Sadly I reckon the Normandy Format (Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France) will agree to that. Biden can get back to domestic stuff and the West collectively goes back to sleep until next Winter. Ukrainians have to hand over their weapons and Russia keeps a 'peace keeping' force in place with his troops then able to look elsewhere for who is next to be raped and effectively become part of Putin's USPR
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 14:34:41 GMT
More from FT chap covering China's response:
and I'd read this one as making it clear whose 'puppet' Ukraine will be from now on:
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PS A 'win' for Macron will be allowing him to choose where to host Minsk III, given it probably does need to be somewhere other than Minsk. Which conveniently also resets the 'counter' for Putin. 'Paris Protocol I' perhaps? Provides Macron with a nice little pre-election boost as the great statesman who avoided a drawn out war in Ukraine where millions might have died. Putin has scripted Macron's speech for him. I won't go as far as saying Vichy2.0 but next time you see Macron, check for strings attached to his arms leading all the way back to Moscow.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 15:37:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 16:07:39 GMT
Sberbank (Russian state owned bank) will close all its branches in Czechia, so people are queuing outside to get their money, close their accounts, etc. Apparently, they won't close the branches in Hungary.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 17:08:36 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 17:17:03 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 25, 2022 19:15:12 GMT
John Sweeney (investigative journalist of Scientologist fame) is in Ukraine and tweeted this:
"Tough old day. I got arrested by the Ukrainian army for filming them: "Are you a Russian spy?" No etc. They were nicer than Putin. I got a cup of tea. Spent time at Ukraine Int HQ as they checked me out. Never mind. #Putin's war is not going well. Vladimir Putin is in trouble."
Of course all any journalist can see is the immediate area he is in, but of interest I think.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 9:46:37 GMT
Some might be interested.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 9:57:45 GMT
I share it here rather than on the Ukraine track - it is a kind of summary as of this evening. Seems reliable (it is just a map). t.me/OSINTUkraine/618Plenty of (Western) sources (eg Ben Wallace) saying Putin failed on his day1 objectives but do we know what the day1 objectives were? A land bridge from the territory Russia already held in Donetsk to Crimea doesn't seem to have been achieved and I would have thought that was a key 'early' objective? Conflicting reports this morning: being denied elsewhere: www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-believes-russians-have-not-taken-melitopol-minister-heappey-says-2022-02-26/All we can say for sure is that Ukrainians are fighting bravely to defend their country with no help[1] from NATO and it hasn't been the 'roll over' that Putin maybe hoped for. The question then is does he use more extreme measures to achieve his objective. I'm fairly sure he doesn't want a drawn out war. [1] Beyond some weapons we gave them before the invasion and maybe some we can somehow get to them in the coming days/weeks/months?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 10:07:40 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 26, 2022 11:14:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 13:47:36 GMT
Having been 'named and shamed' then Italy is getting on board: Italy to support disconnecting Russia from SWIFT -party officialwww.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-swift-italy/italy-to-support-disconnecting-russia-from-swift-party-official-idINL8N2V10HKFWIU then Cyprus and some other hold-outs have also said they won't veto increased sanctions up to and including disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. IMO it is still putting the cart before the horse and unlikely to be 'global' or have the full effect some might think (as Russia can work around the block). However, it would probably also mean that Germany+ can no longer buy Russian gas/oil/coal and all direct exports to Russia will stop (although they can still be routed through China or other countries that keep trade and banking system lines open to Russia) 2c. I actually agree with Germany/France that this kind of action should be held out as a 'last resort' as the implications will be very severe beyond the (limited) impact on Russia and very likely see 'escalation' and possibly widen the conflict and/or bring in other countries. For now, Ukraine is putting up very fierce resistance[1] and 'non-military' approaches (from fairly weak sanctions through to banning Russia from various sporting/cultural events) are stirring up some objections from Russians. If/when Putin uses Second Chechen War tactics (eg seize of Grozny approach on Kyiv) then we need something in reserve. There are things Putin and the Russian Army could do that they aren't doing yet, let's not tempt fate by using up every 'last resort' tactic before he does. [1] Despite the lack of NATO support. IF (and very optimistic at the moment) Ukraine can 'tie' a conventional war with Russia with nothing more than receiving some weapons from NATO countries then.. well... let's not get our hopes up too much yet. The future is not set.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 13:57:55 GMT
Football not my sport but I don't think FIFA as an organisation is a 'puppet' for Putin even if Infantino is. Looks like they are stalling on any decision at the moment[1]. However, I note: FIFA Council also decided to suspend the Football Kenya Federation and the Zimbabwe Football Association with immediate effect due to undue interference by a third party. Don't know those details but they can clearly 'suspend' Russia as a country from internationals as as teams in other competitions. www.fifa.com/about-fifa/organisation/fifa-council/media-releases/fifa-expresses-hope-for-rapid-cessation-of-hostilities-and-peace-in-ukraine[1] Please correct me if I'm wrong but if a match (eg Russia v Poland) doesn't place then FIFA can't sit on the fence. Either Poland forfeit the match for not showing up or FIFA have to rule that Russia is expelled from the competition. It would 'help' if they made that ruling sooner rather than later (eg they could put a deadline on Russia withdrawing troops from Ukraine which, if not adhered to, would then result their expulsion from FIFA competitions with the Poland and any other games then being declared as being de facto won by Poland/etc).
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Post by shevii on Feb 26, 2022 15:05:26 GMT
Maybe a ray of hope:
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 17:03:30 GMT
Two things made me think a lot today:-
* TV news pictures of ordinary Ukrainians in Kiev making molotov cocktails together in a city square.
* A UK MoD Minister on the radio saying Ukraine's armed forces are resisting heroically , but listeners should not expect a fairy tale ending. It will be bloody and there will be terrible pictures on our tv screens.
Is this really going to happen in 2022 on the streets of a European Capital-unarmed civilians throwing molotov cocktails at invading troops and tanks ?
A then what?-after the dead and maimed have been cleared away? Russian troops on every street corner? If not then how does Putin enforce his governance of Ukraine on a resistant people?
And what is the relationship to be between EU/UK and this monstrous madman ?
THis has all happened so quickly-but I begin to revise my cynical view that the West would return to Attention Deficit mode.
It feels as though everything we imagined about the post WW2 settlement and Order of Things has disappeared . And I don't know what will take its place.
This man threatened the West with nuclear weapons if we intervened-and we didn't. How can we stand up to him now?
Finland, The Baltics and SE EU must be very very worried about their security.
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Post by shevii on Feb 26, 2022 18:31:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 19:08:49 GMT
Google translation of a kommersant.ru article that made me smile "Channel One, VGTRK and Radio House Ostankino announced their withdrawal from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). The exit was a response to the removal of Russia from the Eurovision Song Contest this year due to the situation around Ukraine. The broadcasters said in a joint statement that the EBU's decision is regarded as "an inappropriate political sacrifice in a music forum that has always emphasized its non-political status." Channel One, VGTRK and Radio House Ostankino reproached the organizers of the Eurovision Song Contest for a biased interpretation of the term "politics".
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2022 19:20:30 GMT
Two things made me think a lot today:- * TV news pictures of ordinary Ukrainians in Kiev making molotov cocktails together in a city square. * A UK MoD Minister on the radio saying Ukraine's armed forces are resisting heroically , but listeners should not expect a fairy tale ending. It will be bloody and there will be terrible pictures on our tv screens. Is this really going to happen in 2022 on the streets of a European Capital-unarmed civilians throwing molotov cocktails at invading troops and tanks ? A then what?-after the dead and maimed have been cleared away? Russian troops on every street corner? If not then how does Putin enforce his governance of Ukraine on a resistant people? And what is the relationship to be between EU/UK and this monstrous madman ? THis has all happened so quickly-but I begin to revise my cynical view that the West would return to Attention Deficit mode. It feels as though everything we imagined about the post WW2 settlement and Order of Things has disappeared . And I don't know what will take its place. This man threatened the West with nuclear weapons if we intervened-and we didn't. How can we stand up to him now? Finland, The Baltics and SE EU must be very very worried about their security. Getting modern weapons to Ukrainians was and still is the key. Tanks are lumbering easy targets for modern weapons. There can be no Minsk III or Paris I for Putin. No 'kow towing' to Moscow from Macron or anyone from the West. Russia is now a pariah state and I note China might not have Putin's back: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commoditiesDivide and conquer works both ways! Mixed signals from China but 'back channels' need to press and widen any disagreements that ensure no new Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance occurs. That is another reason why sanctions have been best deployed in stages. Putin is '80% Tonto' and we have kept back some measures in reserve (eg the Swift thing) only to be used if he goes '100% Tonto' and then maybe, just maybe, even China condemn Putin's actions and freeze him out.
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Post by birdseye on Feb 26, 2022 21:31:03 GMT
Two things made me think a lot today:- * TV news pictures of ordinary Ukrainians in Kiev making molotov cocktails together in a city square. * A UK MoD Minister on the radio saying Ukraine's armed forces are resisting heroically , but listeners should not expect a fairy tale ending. It will be bloody and there will be terrible pictures on our tv screens. Is this really going to happen in 2022 on the streets of a European Capital-unarmed civilians throwing molotov cocktails at invading troops and tanks ? A then what?-after the dead and maimed have been cleared away? Russian troops on every street corner? If not then how does Putin enforce his governance of Ukraine on a resistant people? And what is the relationship to be between EU/UK and this monstrous madman ? THis has all happened so quickly-but I begin to revise my cynical view that the West would return to Attention Deficit mode. It feels as though everything we imagined about the post WW2 settlement and Order of Things has disappeared . And I don't know what will take its place. This man threatened the West with nuclear weapons if we intervened-and we didn't. How can we stand up to him now? Finland, The Baltics and SE EU must be very very worried about their security. Getting modern weapons to Ukrainians was and still is the key. Tanks are lumbering easy targets for modern weapons. There can be no Minsk III or Paris I for Putin. No 'kow towing' to Moscow from Macron or anyone from the West. Russia is now a pariah state and I note China might not have Putin's back: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commoditiesDivide and conquer works both ways! Mixed signals from China but 'back channels' need to press and widen any disagreements that ensure no new Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance occurs. That is another reason why sanctions have been best deployed in stages. Putin is '80% Tonto' and we have kept back some measures in reserve (eg the Swift thing) only to be used if he goes '100% Tonto' and then maybe, just maybe, even China condemn Putin's actions and freeze him out. As they have Kim Jomg Un?
In recent memory I belive the only example of high tec weapons winning was the American invasion of Iraq. After that, Iraq, Afganistan were failures because tec weapons werent any use against a determined enemy embedded in the population. The russians found the same thing in Afghanistan. Same in Vietnam. OK I will give you that the US and us for that matter dont have the stomach for a long drawn out war with lots of causalties, and Putin has the ability to be truly barbarous as in Chechnya. Nevertheless, the future of this conflict depends mainly on the determination of the Ukrainian people to resist.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2022 16:27:01 GMT
A global financial pariah’: how central bank sanctions could hobble Russiawww.ft.com/content/1a9e01b1-03b0-428b-84d1-d8b9be334942?Of note: 1/ "central bank would be left with only two clear options: raising interest rates, and capital controls"2/ Importance of how China responds 3/ "The country’s record-high $19bn[1] current account surplus, amassed on the back of its significant energy exports, will offer some protection"4/ "Russian central bank said it is propping up domestic lenders by offering them rouble liquidity"
So I'm a little less optimistic about the damage that will be done to Russia. Along with capital controls they can introduce price controls that will limit (maybe even eliminate) inflationary pressures from energy or food prices as they are major net exporters of both. I've mentioned grain before but attached link worth a read. Note: "Lenin is credited with saying: “Wheat is the currency of currencies”. Even in the middle of the cold war, in 1974, the Soviet Union had to arrange and pay for huge wheat imports from the US"[2]
However, as the Iron Curtain falls back around Russia then this time it is rWorld that need Russian (+Ukrainian) grain. If Russia can feed and fuel itself (as it can) then they can simply shut themselves off from the rest of World - leaving the rest of World very short of energy and food. China's role will IMO be very important. Russia would likely prefer to export their excess energy and food products to a 'friend' and China needs to import both products. China are sending mixed signals with mixed actions but if they join rWorld in shutting off Russia then they'll face massive inflationary pressures themselves BUT without any friends anywhere then perhaps China convince Putin to step back from the abyss?? TBC [1] That is for a single month (Jan'22). Energy prices have risen/will rise further since and, for now, energy payments will still be allowed (assuming Putin allows exports to continue) www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/macro_itm/svs/bop-eval/[2] www.ft.com/content/b6712657-d6b7-4d56-95f7-849a653d5a66
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2022 16:51:05 GMT
More on the Iron Curtain returning. If we ban their media then in 'tit-4-tat' retaliation then they will ban Western media. Who wins from that?
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