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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2022 17:26:18 GMT
BP to exit its Rosneft shareholding.
It will take a big loss on that.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2022 17:55:59 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Feb 27, 2022 20:15:21 GMT
Germany has announced they are building gas terminals for the first time. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/20395/thread“We must change course to overcome our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers” Scholz said. “The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security.”
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Feb 27, 2022 20:52:12 GMT
From the Times a couple weeks back… “Veterans of Kyiv rue the day they gave up their nuclear arsenal”
”Those thinking of acquiring nuclear weapons will be even keener to have them if their neighbours already do so. The Ukraine crisis makes it unclear if giving up nuclear weapons is in your country’s interests, and it increases the motivation of other countries to get hold of nuclear weapons.” thinking of acquiring nuclear weapons will be even keener to have them if their neighbours already do so. The Ukraine crisis makes it unclear if giving up nuclear weapons is in your country’s interests, and it increases the motivation of other countries to get hold of nuclear weapons.”
Only too true, and why I expect Iran will now rush to finish their development of nuclear weapons; as Iraq, Libya and now Ukraine have shown, a country that gives up a nuclear weapon capability is vulnerable to attack. No chance of nuclear disarmament for at least another generation now I think. It does seem that if persuading people to give up their weapons, kind of need to try and guarantee their security.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 28, 2022 7:03:30 GMT
BP to exit its Rosneft shareholding. It will take a big loss on that. So who will get the corresponding big profit. The Russian state?
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Post by Danny on Feb 28, 2022 7:06:00 GMT
Its hard to tell how the war is going, but had it gone to the most optimistic of Russian plans, then by now Russia would have taken all its objectives and control Ukraine, so that military resistance had largely ceased. Phase two would then be forced negotiation of a cease fire under which Russia continued its occupation.
That has not happened. If that was the plan, its already failing. Talk of sanctions is growing, and while the west was very very slow organising itself to enforce sanctons before hostilities started, it seems to be getting going belatedly. On an optimistc plan Russia would already be in position and willing to make 'concessions' to ensure sanctions didnt actually happen. Russian ordinary citizens are likely to be starting to get nervous about this foreign military adventure. In the end its useless to Putin unless Russians see the action as a success.
There are some suggestions not alll Russian conscript troops are happy to take part in a foreign invasion. Leaving 2/3 of your troops in reserve during a blitzcreig type invasion doesnt imediately seem like a brilliant strategy if you need a fast victory. It raises the question whether those troops arent really good for anything except sitting in camps.
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Post by Danny on Feb 28, 2022 7:31:04 GMT
Its obviously biased, but R4 just interviewed some Ukrainian who argued the initial blitzcreig attack failed. Then the reinforcement in strength failed. Then terror attacks on civilians failed. So already several stages of plan not worked out.
Plus inerviewing accountants taking up arms. While they might not make wonderful soldiers, they might also be facing rather uncommitted invaders who dont want to fight anyway.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 8:55:10 GMT
Germany has announced they are building gas terminals for the first time. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/20395/thread“We must change course to overcome our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers” Scholz said. “The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security.” and nuclear!! Nuclear, coal, LNG: 'no taboos' in Germany's energy about-facewww.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plans-cut-dependence-russia-gas-2022-02-27/Excellent news and great to see Germany is finally taking Energy Security and defence seriously. Lots that UK and others can be doing as well. Would have been nice is some of this stuff was done after 2014 but better late than never and kudos to Scholz and the 'traffic light' coalition for these changes on Germany's long standing policies and approach. Respect is due! PS Let's hope they do actually do it this time as well. The 2% NATO has previously been a 'pinkie promise' to get there one day and they mentioned LNG back in the days of Trump threatening to hit them with tariffs. From 2018: Germany to build LNG plant in 'gesture' to U.S.www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-energy-usa-russia-idUSKCN1LY25H
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 9:23:47 GMT
Germany has announced they are building gas terminals for the first time. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/20395/thread“We must change course to overcome our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers” Scholz said. “The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security.” and nuclear!! Nuclear, coal, LNG: 'no taboos' in Germany's energy about-facewww.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plans-cut-dependence-russia-gas-2022-02-27/Excellent news and great to see Germany is finally taking Energy Security and defence seriously. Lots that UK and others can be doing as well. Would have been nice is some of this stuff was done after 2014 but better late than never and kudos to Scholz and the 'traffic light' coalition for these changes on Germany's long standing policies and approach. Respect is due! PS Let's hope they do actually do it this time as well. The 2% NATO has previously been a 'pinkie promise' to get there one day and they mentioned LNG back in the days of Trump threatening to hit them with tariffs. From 2018: Germany to build LNG plant in 'gesture' to U.S.www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-energy-usa-russia-idUSKCN1LY25HYep. A fundamental rethink on Energy. It will be Europe wide. Same on Defence. So Putin's actions have generated the very thing he went to Ukraine to stop. Very concerned now that he will order use of heavy/terror weapons on Ukraine cities in anger and frustration
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 9:32:01 GMT
Times reports 2k to 4k Wagner Group mercenaries tasked with execution of Zelensky and his Government
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 9:42:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 9:43:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 9:48:19 GMT
Yep. A fundamental rethink on Energy. It will be Europe wide. Same on Defence. So Putin's actions have generated the very thing he went to Ukraine to stop. Very concerned now that he will order use of heavy/terror weapons on Ukraine cities in anger and frustration A good summary of recent days and concerns of 'what next': Vladimir Putin’s grand plan is unravelling
www.ft.com/content/d01db87b-1e5a-49dd-bc75-4014d91dbd12By hiking interest rates, rather than going immediately to capital controls, then I read that as Putin thinks he'll be allowed back in to the global system and I doubt that is going to happen unless he withdraws. Certainly won't happen if he goes 100% Tonto. I also note Beijing has held off from backing Russia, raising questions about the extent of any partnership. Ukraine: what will China do? There are signs it is uneasy about Putin’s methods
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukraine-what-will-china-do-there-are-signs-it-is-uneasy-about-putins-methodsBeyond any possible concerns that raises for Putin being left totally isolated then 'the World is watching' Ukraine and China might see how badly that is going for Putin and reconsider any thoughts they had about Taiwan or elsewhere.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 10:03:23 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 11:17:32 GMT
They have indeed. And let's face it, a bit of a wake up call to all the UK politicians heavily in hock to Moscow.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 11:37:07 GMT
They have indeed. And let's face it, a bit of a wake up call to all the UK politicians heavily in hock to Moscow. Absolutely agree. Germany is staring at the wreckage of a failed foreign policy going back decades:- www.dw.com/en/germanys-russia-policy-in-tatters-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/a-60874697and I think if UK is honest the collapse of our dalliance with oligarch money in London is in the same basket-both born of domestic economic interest and the political connections which that generates. A wake up call indeed-heeded we hope !
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 11:44:34 GMT
So here's the current state of play: Attachment DeletedVery surprised that Mariupol hasn't been taking yet. The absolute minimum Putin was expecting by now must have been to create the land bridge to Crimea, though almost certainly will still achieve it. But Kharkiv seems to be defending itself heroically and by all accounts Odessa is well prepared. It seems to me that the Russian-speaking population of Eastern Ukraine is not reacting in the way Putin expected. They were always an independent lot and not unthinkingly pro-Moscow. Viktor Yanukovich, the President and ethnic Russian-dominated Party of Regions leader, was planning to take Ukraine into the EU in the years up to 2013, until Putin leant on him.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 12:19:20 GMT
They have indeed. And let's face it, a bit of a wake up call to all the UK politicians heavily in hock to Moscow. Absolutely agree. Germany is staring at the wreckage of a failed foreign policy going back decades:- www.dw.com/en/germanys-russia-policy-in-tatters-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/a-60874697and I think if UK is honest the collapse of our dalliance with oligarch money in London is in the same basket-both born of domestic economic interest and the political connections which that generates. A wake up call indeed-heeded we hope ! Scholtz (SPD) and Baerbock (Greens) should be commended for waking up and the huge changes in Germany policy. Good to see " Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, former defense minister in Chancellor Angela Merkel's previous center-right government, admitted policy failures" (vdL being in that post before mini-Merkel took it over). One note of caution from the dw article: "Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the party chairman for the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), said on Thursday that Russia faces tangible and painful sanctions, but his goal of limiting new borrowing in Europe's biggest economy to €100 billion ($113 billion) in 2022 was a benchmark that remained unchanged in the crisis" Below shows FDP's will require financing any hike in public spending with new revenues or budget cuts elsewhere (and they are not keen on hiking taxes). www.reuters.com/article/germany-budget-idUSKBN2JS1HRI very much hope we don't see some 'revisions', 'watering down' or 'heel dragging' down the line when the tough decisions of who is going to see their budget cut to pay for the new 'promises' need to be thrashed out. UK. Well Kwarteng is finally getting it. See his latest
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 12:44:40 GMT
Gas prices are up about 12% and crude oil about 4.5%. Both having risen a lot less than I expected they would (ie good, or at least 'not as bad as expected', news) www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*0/futures-priceswww.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futures-pricesBP 'only' down 6% but likes of Raiffeisen getting hit quite hard: Russia certainly being hit harder: NB Obviously the human cost issues in Ukraine are more important but I had feared a bigger hit to Western democracies and did worry that would weaken our long-term resolve. Very happy to be proven wrong on both counts (so far at least!)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 14:20:08 GMT
Grozny revisited?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 14:24:35 GMT
Ukraine opened a webpage with photos and videos about captured and killed Russian soldiers. 200rf.com/
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 14:37:17 GMT
Unspeakable barbarity. Civilian casualties rising fast .
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 15:19:51 GMT
BP to exit its Rosneft shareholding. It will take a big loss on that. With oil at $100 a barrel i wouldn't shed too many tears
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 16:28:45 GMT
Given that the West is supplying huge quantities of munitions etc does anyone have any idea of whether Western Special Forces are able/likely to do something similar? @crofty Better not to ask. UK delivered anti-tank missiles (NLAWs) by RAF planes[1] direct to Kyiv but any new weapons being sent by 'others' will now need to travel by land. I hope they arrive in time and can get through to the Ukrainian forces that need them as 'being intercepted' is now a higher risk. NB There is no need for UK/NATO forces to be 'IN' Ukraine as even for training that could be done outside of Ukraine (as per our previous discussion WRT to provocation). However, with airspace now (effectively) closed to NATO planes then I'm not sure if Ukrainian forces will pick up the new anti-tank missiles they are being sent in say Poland or whether Germany/etc will be putting 'boots on ground' for the delivery of the weapons. It is not just what you give to Ukraine but very obviously WHEN you do it. Better late than never but if the weapons now can't get through, or don't arrive in time, then not much use to Ukrainians defending Kyiv, etc. Those long convoys of tanks and military vehicles parked up on the roads into Kyiv would be very easy targets for Javelin (US) or NLAW (UK) anti-tank weapons. C21 weapons can easily knock out C20 tanks but you if you don't have them, you can't use them. www.youtube.com/watch?v=sah9nbGQLFY[1] "The flights started on the 17th of January, with Royal Air Force C-17 aircraft departing RAF Brize Norton for Kiev multiple times per day, today is the third consecutive day of deliveries"ukdefencejournal.org.uk/third-day-of-british-weapon-flights-to-ukraine/
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Post by lens on Feb 28, 2022 17:03:12 GMT
NB There is no need for UK/NATO forces to be 'IN' Ukraine ........... I doubt we'll ever know the answer, but one way Western powers may be able to significntly aid Ukrainian forces without putting any boots on the ground is by supplying intelligence.......
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 17:27:52 GMT
NB There is no need for UK/NATO forces to be 'IN' Ukraine ........... I doubt we'll ever know the answer, but one way Western powers may be able to significntly aid Ukrainian forces without putting any boots on the ground is by supplying intelligence....... I don't disagree but there is this modern invention called the internet (or more secure methods of communication) by which we can send satellite images to Ukrainian troops on the ground. I see pictures of Russian convoys[1] and see a load of very easy targets for NLAW, Javelin, etc. No disrespect to 'crayon eaters' (what RAF folks call squaddies) but those weapons are very easy to use - a YouTube video would probably be enough. One step up is what Turkey has been sending them[2] but as that link shows then air defences might be able to take those out? RAF/NATO won't get to play with their best new toys which could wipe out that convoy of Russian tanks and military vehicles from outside of Ukrainian airspace as that would righty be seen as 'intervening' and an 'escalation'. C20 military equipment (eg tanks) have been made redundant by C21 weapons - provided the 'domestic' troops have those weapons of course and they're not only now finding their way out of a warehouse somewhere and yet to get to the people who could make immediate use of them. [1] www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-convoy-ground-forces-fuel-tanks-moving-toward-kyiv-maxar-2022-02-27/ [2] breakingdefense.com/2022/02/ukraines-turkish-made-drones-face-off-against-advanced-russian-military/
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 19:01:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2022 20:06:02 GMT
Kudos to the Swiss:
Swiss break neutrality tradition to match EU sanctions on Russiawww.ft.com/content/80c268fa-61d4-42ac-a9f4-310f12678c43Broader implications and a message to the World as 'neutral' is redefined as having to take action when there is a moral duty after a "violation of international rights".
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Post by Danny on Feb 28, 2022 20:11:04 GMT
Yep. A fundamental rethink on Energy. It will be Europe wide. Same on Defence. So Putin's actions have generated the very thing he went to Ukraine to stop. Very concerned now that he will order use of heavy/terror weapons on Ukraine cities in anger and frustration But that wouldnt help him. The way to mount a successful invasion was always to do it fast before opposition can grow. if you now send more troops you escalate the blodshed, which makes everyne more deterined. The bigger the battle, the more it otivates anti Russian action. Russias way out is either to succeed in its original limited objectves and annexe parts of Ukraine, or to scale back those obectives and settle for less. Presuay this would have been built into the planning, that they would scale back as necessary. What is happening at the moment simply highlights how the west could have prevented this inasion entirely had it wished to. But it chose to allow the invasion to go ahead, presumably seeing advantage in that happening. There was a Ukrainian interviewed on Ch4 news, who said he was glad the war which had been hanging over them had now begun because the only way to end that threat was to fight the war.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Feb 28, 2022 21:05:17 GMT
“Putin’s ambitions do not stop at Ukraine, a subject on which he is not entirely rational. His ambition is to humiliate and degrade Nato to undermine the mutual defence based on Article 5 in the Nato treaty and to weaken the linkage between the US and European defence.
He has been simulating war games with Nato, which Russia wins because of “escalation dominance” — a willingness to more credibly threaten to use nuclear weapons than members of the alliance. He believes his superior willpower and the quality he admires most, ruthlessness, give him the upper hand.
Hence the nuclear drills that preceded the invasion of Ukraine and the present placing of Russia on heightened nuclear alert.”
Robin Renwick, former ambassador to Washington, in the Times
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