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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 22:27:33 GMT
colin - R4 PM tonight had an interview with a Conservative MP whose name I can't recall. She spunded knowledgable and impressive, and was commenting on the UK sanctions just announced. Her view was that going for the Swift system was not necessary if you attacked Russian banks hard, and she didn't appear to consider the omission of Swift sanctions as an issue. She seemed to suhhest that we were simply doing the same thing in another way, and one likely to be harder for Russia. Whether accurate or not I can't say as I don't have the knowledge to comment, but I thought it was notable that a Conservative was saying this. A former Ukrainian Finance Minister interviewed on Sky demanded SWIFT and lots of other things she said weren't being done.
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Post by alec on Feb 24, 2022 22:35:17 GMT
colin - I noted that. Also I noted that the UK hasn't placed sanctions on all Russian banks, but is taking powers to do so. Does that mean those banks can still function in the UK?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 22:35:22 GMT
"Whether Russia’s access to SWIFT will actually get cut off. Some world leaders like U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson have urged for Russia to get booted from SWIFT, but Reuters reports EU officials are still “unlikely” to take that step at this stage given the potential ramifications. “You would create a big mess in Russia, but also for cross-border payment services,” a senior executive at a foreign lender told the FT. “How would Europe pay their gas bill without SWIFT?” President Joe Biden said Thursday cutting Russia off from SWIFT remained an “option,” but the U.S. was so far not taking that step because “right now that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take.”
Forbes
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 23:17:07 GMT
I think Putin's territorial objectives in Ukraine have been over-stated in some places. He'll be aiming for annexation of the contiguous block of regions bordering the Black Sea and the eastern border, which are predominantly Russian-speaking: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — 72% Donetsk Oblast — 93% Luhansk Oblast — 89% Zaporizhia Oblast — 81% Odessa Oblast — 85% Kharkiv Oblast — 74% Mykolaiv Oblast — 66% Source - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#:~:text=Russian%20is%20the%20most%20common,the%20country's%20only%20state%20language. If he could get those he would consider his historical destiny fulfilled, be a hero at home and could focus on just defending those gains. But perhaps a more likely outcome, depending on how strong the resistance is, is that he'd just get Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia - more or less the current rebel-controlled area. That would leave him exposed at home though - not a clear victory to make the subsequent pain seem worthwhile. Gosh, I got there only tonight. Fully agree.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 25, 2022 7:28:56 GMT
PS It goes without saying that if Putin wins a 'quick' war in Ukraine then he'll free up his forces and be in a very strong 'negotiating' position for Minsk III. Germany only has gas storage for max 2mths, parts of E.Europe likely less. Even into the Summer then due to shutting down nuclear[1] then Germany+ burn a lot of gas for electricity. Putin knows that and obviously the price has risen on today's events (ie Germany+ will be sending him even larger amounts of money to fund his military in the coming weeks and months). [1] I've been banging on about that so see attached. Germany used to produce approx 150TWh from nuclear which dropped to 70TWh in 2021. They just shut 3 more of their remaining 6 and plan to close the remaining ones very soon (ie they'll need to make up the remaining 70TWh from somewhere). They have been building up renewable supply which is great but instead of closing down nuclear they could have made a sizeable reduction in their purchases of Russian gas. But oh no, Russian gas was (past tense now) cheaper and folks don't like nuclear so they kept on buying Russian gas The US and Europe already concluded they were not willing to defend Ukraine militarily and therefore sealed its fate if Russia invaded. This ceased to be a consideration, whether they could militarilly win. They can.
They will also have been addressing how to neutralise any possible sanctions, and obviously are in a very strong position because of the world fuel shortage. Also people are talking about swift bakning system, but R4 suggested they have been developing alternaties.It seems very likey ejecting them would do europe more harm than Russia. Apart from that someone posted a news item about Putin moving his personal yacht out of Germany...gee wizz he must be shaking in his boots about that!
I have argued before a strategy of major nuclear together with renewables for energy generation does not make sense. Because both are systems which service baseload and not peak demand. Germany made a decision to ditch nuclear too fast but that was no worse than the Uk ditching coal. The policy of relying upon industry to create sufficient alternative generating capacity to guarantee energy supply is a nonsense, because its just not in the interests of any industry to oversupply and therefore reduce market price of their product.
Russia needs a short and successful war. It does not need 20 years of guerrilla occupation of the western inclined half of ukraine. I doubt Russia wants a return to the cold war and the pressure this would place upon the US to return troops to Europe and actualy accomplish the reverse of what it wants, by compelling the west to agree to defend even countries outside NATO.
The knee jerk response to Fukushima in Germany was misguided. And now-as you say-a massive hole in Energy Security. Its effect has been no different to Uk closing its coal power stations.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 25, 2022 7:40:30 GMT
Crimea was 2014 (when they'd reduced nuclear from 150TWh to 100TWh) so that should surely have caused a 'review'? Even more was the decision by the new coalition to shut down 3 more in Dec'21 (after they halted authorisation for NS2) and state the remaining 3 would close this year (ie the final 70TWh reduction could and should have been paused) Russia has a temporary advantage at the moment. But before 5 years or so when Europe has resolved its energy problems, Russia must have resolved its problems with Ukraine. If it takes the entire country then it will be sitting in possession of a country it has to occupy militarily which is untenable long term. There is an opportuniity now to make limited but secure gains which are tenable long term and which the west cannot object to right now because of the fuel issues.
R4 interviewing Ukrainians determined to fight a guerilla war. I dont know if thats our government's propaganda again, but really its the sole reason Russia wont occupy all of Ukraine.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 25, 2022 7:51:47 GMT
@danny 'Putin ends up a hero for a bloodles easy win.' It has already not been bloodless, people have died, are dying and will continue to die Again to return to covid. Deaths from covid have been pretty small by historic standards. People seem to forget that using military power has a cost in lives and that cost has always, always, always, been acceptable. We train soldiers in the expectation some will die and the hope it will be a small number. But in full knowledge their deaths are acceptable, or we simply would not maintain an army. We live in peculiar times when people have come to value human life above territory or possessions, whereas throughout history the reverse has been true for very good reasons that the collective possession of territory and wealth has always been more important for survival of the whole group than individual lives.
So yes, Putin ends up a hero if he achieves a relatively boodless victory which in particular does not involve an ongoing guerilla war.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 8:01:28 GMT
“How would Europe pay their gas bill without SWIFT?” Indeed. See previous posts (also on main thread) SWIFT is the cart. Importing Russian gas/oil/coal is the horse. You kill the horse, the cart stops moving. EUrope won't put the cart before the horse. NB We need to act in a coordinated fashion but given Boris was facing domestic pressure to 'go further' then it is easy for him/UK to say we'll ban Russia from SWIFT if everyone else agrees to (and it has to be everyone). From Putin's perspective he'll see lack of coordination. US update on sanctions: www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/russia-sanctions-ukraine-invasion-00011431Great to see UK+US are aligned sanctions will help ' curtail Russia’s high-tech imports in a way that could damage Moscow’s aerospace industry' but still missing hitting Putin in the wallet: Notably, the president didn’t announce crushing sanctions on Russia’s energy sectorHe won't be hit by impact on nat.gas (see previous posts) but crude oil will hit Americans at the pump and I've posted polling and comments on how that will hurt Biden and Dems politically - with mid-terms later this year, just as next Winter starts. OPEC+ could replace Russian oil (with a bit of a lag) and 'the West' need to speak to Saudi, UAE, etc and ask them whose side they are on: oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Dont-Count-On-OPEC-To-Bring-Oil-Prices-Down.html
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Post by moby on Feb 25, 2022 8:15:33 GMT
@danny 'Putin ends up a hero for a bloodles easy win.' It has already not been bloodless, people have died, are dying and will continue to die Again to return to covid. Deaths from covid have been pretty small by historic standards. People seem to forget that using military power has a cost in lives and that cost has always, always, always, been acceptable. We train soldiers in the expectation some will die and the hope it will be a small number. But in full knowledge their deaths are acceptable, or we simply would not maintain an army. We live in peculiar times when people have come to value human life above territory or possessions, whereas throughout history the reverse has been true for very good reasons that the collective possession of territory and wealth has always been more important for survival of the whole group than individual lives.
So yes, Putin ends up a hero if he achieves a relatively boodless victory which in particular does not involve an ongoing guerilla war.
There is no such thing as a "whole group" historically. Acquiring territory and wealth is best understood by hiearchies of competing elites vying for control of resources and the upper hand. Putin is no exception. Also its not just about territory or possessions. Its about ideas and values. Putin is always going to be vulnerable because he is a dictator who is spending the resources of an economy the size of Italy on an army needed to be a super power. How long will the Russian people accept poor living standards to pay for his aims. He therefore clearly fears democracy and free expression and no person or political system based on controlling freedoms in the way he is can be ultimately successful.
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Post by Danny on Feb 25, 2022 8:28:50 GMT
Putin is always going to be vulnerable because he is a dictator who is spending the resources of an economy the size of Italy on an army needed to be a super power. How long will the Russian people accept poor living standards to pay for his aims. He therefore clearly fears democracy and free expression and no person or political system based on controlling freedoms in the way he is can be ultimately successful. Monarchs always fear democracy, but centralised and even hereditary authority has its own advantages. The state is the king, the king is the state. Personal wealth and prestige is national wealth and prestige. The king's sccess is everyones success. He needs a short successful war. Considerable confusion in news reports over who is doing well or badly within Ukraine currently. Which I suppose is what you would expect, everyone claiming to be winning. And without knowing what are the Russian objectives, hard to say if they have been achieved. In this uncertainty lies the potential for everyone to claim they have won at the end. Russia gains a chunk of territory, the west succeeded in keeping him out of the rest. Ireland was more harmonious because it was partitioned into N and S where the majority residents had different views. Residue Ukraine might be a more cohesive and stable country for losing the pro Russian provinces even if it cannot admit that.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 8:29:37 GMT
I think Putin's territorial objectives in Ukraine have been over-stated in some places. He'll be aiming for annexation of the contiguous block of regions bordering the Black Sea and the eastern border, which are predominantly Russian-speaking: Gosh, I got there only tonight. Fully agree. !?!?! Reality check folks!! See what Putin has actually said, where his lines of attack lead (Chernobyl is in Kyiv Oblast on the route from Belarus to Kyiv) and where the fighting is currently reported to be. The future is not set and perhaps a rump of Western Ukraine (maybe even Western Kyiv) stays on the West side of the Iron Curtain falling over Eastern Europe (see previous posts) but the possibility he was just going to take parts of Ukraine (maybe one bit at a time over a few years) ended when? With the 'events' of yesterday morning. Also perhaps he has a 'quick war' and controls the whole of Ukraine. He then looks further West. He already controls the Transnistria part of Moldova (used as just one of the bridgeheads into Ukraine[1]). He's been known to be 'interfering' in Serbia and elsewhere in the Balkans. How much further he goes will depend on 'events' of course but like Hitler then 'quick+easy' wins while the West does little to discourage him will very likely mean the new Iron Curtain falls further to the West than it might. If he gets a very easy, quick win in Ukraine it's also possible he looks at the North or the South. Certainly the more 'non-Russian' territory he takes the harder it will be to hold BUT once the Iron Curtain drops resistance will be much harder. Also the more fronts he opens (as NATO can't be the aggressor) then the more spread out his forces will be, but due to C-E Europe's reliance on Russian gas/oil/coal then Putin's best weapon is the perennial 'General Frost' and he'll be back every year until C-E Europe ends it reliance on Russian gas/oil/coal. We'll see where the new Iron Curtain then falls and maybe optimistically that new curtain turns to rust a lot quicker than the old one. It is fine to 'hope for the best' but NATO and all democracies need to 'plan for the worst' and not think with wishes. [1] www.france24.com/en/europe/20220222-moldova-then-georgia-now-ukraine-how-russia-built-bridgeheads-into-post-soviet-space
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 8:45:44 GMT
It's not just Energy Security where much of the West is weak, it is also food. Ukraine is known as 'the bread basket of Europe' (having previously been known as 'the bread basket of the Soviet Union') www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-20/global-food-supply-ukraine-soviet-union-s-breadbasket-plan-to-feed-the-worldBread may be the first thing to go missing from our tables as Putin wages war on Ukraine fortune.com/2022/02/24/wheat-supply-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion/NB That is not alarmist and please don't imply I'm trying to set off some bonkers panic buying spree. All I'm saying is that Ukraine has a lot more strategic value than some folks might think. If Putin intends there to be a new Iron Curtain then he'll want to ensure he can feed the people on his side of it. China is heavily dependent on imports but if Russia controls a lot of sources of energy and food then it strengthens Russia's hand in a new Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance. Although the money flow will be from China into Russia in the C21 version and TBC how they split up the territory in Asia and how much they seek to expand it. Hence why 'the West' also needs to have Japan (G7) and as many allies as possible in Asia agreeing to sanctions on Russia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_Treaty_of_Friendship,_Alliance_and_Mutual_Assistance
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 8:52:22 GMT
'the West' need to speak to Saudi, UAE, etc and ask them whose side they are on: "Whose side are you on" translates , in the real world , into "How much pain are YOU prepared to take for Ukrainians". And the answers are looking pretty varied:- "Pakistan, which has also refrained from talk that may antagonise the Kremlin, was embarrassed by the words of Imran Khan, 69, the prime minister, when he arrived in Moscow for a meeting with Putin yesterday. “What a time I have come,” he told Russian officials as he stepped off the plane. “So much excitement.”" "Of the southeast Asian countries, only Singapore explicitly signalled support for Ukraine. Kenya and several other African states have vigorously denounced Russia’s aggression but the African Union has yet to take a position, and South Africa simply called on “all parties” to negotiate." "India depends on Russia for up to two thirds of its military hardware. Pakistan has benefited from billions of dollars of Russian investment. China’s decision not to criticise President Putin had been widely expected from a superpower that has made common cause with the Kremlin against the US, but the ambivalence from India, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and more than a dozen countries notionally friendlier towards the West is striking. Many have avoided using the term “invasion” or attributing blame to Russia, and still more have declined to say anything at all. India has expressed only “deep concern”, without pointing to Russia as the aggressor, prompting the Ukrainian ambassador to “plead” with it to take a stronger position. Turkey, a Nato member, said the invasion was “unacceptable” but is opposed to stringent sanctions. It has yet to respond to an appeal from Kyiv to close the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus to Russian shipping." A former German Ambassador to UK said on Sky tv this morning that Germany has woken up in a state of shock-its policy of Wandel durch Handel to Russia lies in tatters. Even more handwringing in Germany :- "“The German armed forces, the army I have the privilege of leading, are more or less naked,The options we can offer the politicians for supporting the [Nato] alliance are extremely limited. We all saw it coming and we weren’t able to succeed with our arguments in implementing the lessons from the annexation of Crimea. “That does not feel good! I’m pissed off! Nato territory isn’t directly threatened yet, even if our partners in the east feel the constantly growing pressure. When, if not now, is the time to act?” Alfons Mais head of the German army "he said said the Bundeswehr had failed to adapt to the new security challenges and required urgent reform after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia’s occupation of parts of Ukraine in 2014." All quoted sections from Times today. There will be be some fundamental re-assessments about the World Order and who is "with" who after this. Meanwhile Putin marches on to Kiev to get Zelensky-who said on TV he and his family are going nowhere. Thats brave.
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Post by shevii on Feb 25, 2022 8:55:21 GMT
"Whether Russia’s access to SWIFT will actually get cut off. Some world leaders like U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson have urged for Russia to get booted from SWIFT, but Reuters reports EU officials are still “unlikely” to take that step at this stage given the potential ramifications. “You would create a big mess in Russia, but also for cross-border payment services,” a senior executive at a foreign lender told the FT. “How would Europe pay their gas bill without SWIFT?” President Joe Biden said Thursday cutting Russia off from SWIFT remained an “option,” but the U.S. was so far not taking that step because “right now that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take.” Forbes You have to say that emotionally when you see Russian protesters in Russia taking huge personal risks and Ukrainians being bombed and killed and facing a humanitarian disaster that the West should be doing what the Ukrainian President wants you to do. I think the German response (who are probably key to banning Swift from Russia rather than Cyprus) is more nuanced than just being about gas payments, although it seems an incredibly weak excuse and goes something like we need to hold something back in the arsenal for the right moment. I'm not qualified to comment either way on Swift and sometimes you need wise heads in the heat of a very emotional situation, but the response seems badly coordinated given the West should have game planned this weeks ago.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 8:57:28 GMT
I was thinking overnight about why Russia was so keen to capture Chernobyl and came to the conclusion that it's a further statement that they are ready to use nuclear weapons. This article seem to confirm it: www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-russian-forces-chernobyl-/31721240.htmlI really fear that if things don't go well for Putin he may resort to a nuclear attack. I sincerely hope there are people in the Russian military who would disobey orders if that becomes the case. And I also worry that London would be Putin's number one target.
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Post by moby on Feb 25, 2022 8:59:20 GMT
Putin is always going to be vulnerable because he is a dictator who is spending the resources of an economy the size of Italy on an army needed to be a super power. How long will the Russian people accept poor living standards to pay for his aims. He therefore clearly fears democracy and free expression and no person or political system based on controlling freedoms in the way he is can be ultimately successful. Monarchs always fear democracy, but centralised and even hereditary authority has its own advantages. The state is the king, the king is the state. Personal wealth and prestige is national wealth and prestige. The king's sccess is everyones success. He needs a short successful war. Considerable confusion in news reports over who is doing well or badly within Ukraine currently. Which I suppose is what you would expect, everyone claiming to be winning. And without knowing what are the Russian objectives, hard to say if they have been achieved. In this uncertainty lies the potential for everyone to claim they have won at the end. Russia gains a chunk of territory, the west succeeded in keeping him out of the rest. Ireland was more harmonious because it was partitioned into N and S where the majority residents had different views. Residue Ukraine might be a more cohesive and stable country for losing the pro Russian provinces even if it cannot admit that. One of the main signals as to how things are turning out in the weeks ahead will not be the territorial gains made but the level of internal dissent within Russia and the shift in international opinion. Like with all dictatorships wealth and power doesn't flow down. It stays in the hands of a few dukes, earls or (now) oligarchs. Putin has his hands full, he has to control new territory, he has to control his own population who have aspirations to have Western lifestyles and access to popular culture and he has to keep an eye on the group of oligarchs he's distributed power to. He's doing all this while having to keep western liberal ideas and values at arms length.. Sooner or later one or a few of his oligarchs will think they can do it better than him or alternatively they'll want to reign him in, especially if dissent grows within Russia. A quick victory will reduce these risk areas but the US and allies are past experts at destabilising regimes they don't like. A "clean" quick victory in a military occupation sense will therefore not be possible in the long term because Putin is now labelled as a dictator with blood on his hands.
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Post by birdseye on Feb 25, 2022 9:01:08 GMT
FT article covering the 'locking the door after the horse has bolted': Russia’s waning reliance on London markets reduces UK sanctions biteJohnson threatens to shut out Russian companies looking to raise capital, but only three have listed since 2014www.ft.com/content/7f0be009-008c-4480-8881-4abace625f81Worth looking at the chart for cumulative deal value ($bn) since 2005 LAB govt (the 5years up to 2010): $35.5bn (over $5bn per year) CON govt (11years 2010-2021): $45.0bn (so less than $1bn per year) NB We of course should shut and lock the door. There are a lot of assets in UK that are not 'moveable'. Keep the assets and let those who have liabilities (ie lent Russia money) worry what happens when the door is locked. And what about British assets in Russia? BP for example?
Feb 25, 2022 8:57:28 GMT johntel said: I was thinking overnight about why Russia was so keen to capture Chernobyl and came to the conclusion that it's a further statement that they are ready to use nuclear weapons. This article seem to confirm it:
www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-russian-forces-chernobyl-/31721240.html
I really fear that if things don't go well for Putin he may resort to a nuclear attack.
I sincerely hope there are people in the Russian military who would disobey orders if that becomes the case. And I also worry that London would be Putin's number one target.
The Russians have clearly stated in 2000 that their military policy includes first use of nuclear weapons. Interestingly Russia is twice the size of the US and with more nukes. Seems better able to withstand a nuclear war.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:02:53 GMT
"Whether Russia’s access to SWIFT will actually get cut off. Some world leaders like U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson have urged for Russia to get booted from SWIFT, but Reuters reports EU officials are still “unlikely” to take that step at this stage given the potential ramifications. “You would create a big mess in Russia, but also for cross-border payment services,” a senior executive at a foreign lender told the FT. “How would Europe pay their gas bill without SWIFT?” President Joe Biden said Thursday cutting Russia off from SWIFT remained an “option,” but the U.S. was so far not taking that step because “right now that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take.” Forbes You have to say that emotionally when you see Russian protesters in Russia taking huge personal risks and Ukrainians being bombed and killed and facing a humanitarian disaster that the West should be doing what the Ukrainian President wants you to do. I think the German response (who are probably key to banning Swift from Russia rather than Cyprus) is more nuanced than just being about gas payments, although it seems an incredibly weak excuse and goes something like we need to hold something back in the arsenal for the right moment. I'm not qualified to comment either way on Swift and sometimes you need wise heads in the heat of a very emotional situation, but the response seems badly coordinated given the West should have game planned this weeks ago. I agree. This is a good write up including an account of the Bulls and Bears on SWIFT. www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/kyiv-furious-as-eu-wavers-on-banning-russia-from-swift-payment-systemI note this :- "Diplomatic sources suggested that Germany, Cyprus and Italy were among the member states who were the most concerned about taking the measure at this stage, arguing that some leverage needs to be maintained. “Someone started a war and we want this war to stop here and now,” one EU diplomat explained of the caution over Swift. “You always need to have some doors open to be able to have a dialogue to stop a war.” Aren't we way beyond the idea of keeping doors open and dialogue? That is saying -after he has killed enough Ukrainians and executed their President maybe we can talk to Putin again.
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Post by moby on Feb 25, 2022 9:06:40 GMT
Surely SWIFT is a red herring really. Crypto currency will be his means to cash flow.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:08:13 GMT
From 2015: Putin’s Goal is a New Yaltawww.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-s-goal-is-a-new-yalta/To which I'd only add that Yalta was 4-11 Feb 1945 when 'war weary' Russia got more than they maybe should have from 'the West' and then the Red Army pushed further West and 'de facto' grabbed a bit more than was 'agreed' (with the West not wanting their soldiers to die in C-E Europe). Balkans got very messy but when the Iron Curtain finally settled then Greece managed to stay on the West side of it. There was then the 'Tito-Stalin' split which moved Yugoslavia slightly outside of Kremlin influence but it was certainly not part of 'the West' and had a very messy return to democracy, which is still not 'settled'. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 25, 2022 9:08:28 GMT
Hi @tw
Reality check folks!! See what Putin has actually said, where his lines of attack lead (Chernobyl is in Kyiv Oblast on the route from Belarus to Kyiv) and where the fighting is currently reported to be.
The future is not set...
Exactly, and its anyone's guess how this all eventually pans out, and Putin has obviously taken a huge risk. What is clear as this stage is Russian military objectives are to isolate the main urban areas and encircle and reduce Ukraine's military. The Ukrainian response seems to be to retreat into the urban areas - as I have mentioned before most of Ukraine really doesn't have defensible terrain (and as Russia can attack from Belorussia the Dnieper isn't the barrier it could be) and is ideal for mobile warfare, thus the cities are the best option from a defensive perspective. Weather Russian forces seek to besiege the cities that hold out or storm them I don't know - and a lot will depend on the Ukrainian will to resist, knowing that no one is coming to the their rescue. Either way the price civilians will pay on so many different levels will be truly horrendous.
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Post by birdseye on Feb 25, 2022 9:18:07 GMT
Putin is always going to be vulnerable because he is a dictator who is spending the resources of an economy the size of Italy on an army needed to be a super power. How long will the Russian people accept poor living standards to pay for his aims. He therefore clearly fears democracy and free expression and no person or political system based on controlling freedoms in the way he is can be ultimately successful. Monarchs always fear democracy, but centralised and even hereditary authority has its own advantages. The state is the king, the king is the state. Personal wealth and prestige is national wealth and prestige. The king's sccess is everyones success. He needs a short successful war. Considerable confusion in news reports over who is doing well or badly within Ukraine currently. Which I suppose is what you would expect, everyone claiming to be winning. And without knowing what are the Russian objectives, hard to say if they have been achieved. In this uncertainty lies the potential for everyone to claim they have won at the end. Russia gains a chunk of territory, the west succeeded in keeping him out of the rest. Ireland was more harmonious because it was partitioned into N and S where the majority residents had different views. Residue Ukraine might be a more cohesive and stable country for losing the pro Russian provinces even if it cannot admit that. Your next to last sentence is startling given the decades of terrorism in the north and in the UK. But leaving that aside, I wonder what makes people think after Georgia and Ukraine and the other bits of empire, that the emperor will stop there. What about the Baltic countries with big ethnic Russian populations? He already has Kalinograd maybe Lithuania, Latvis. Maybe Slovakia?
Putin has a striong view that the collapse of the Evil Empire was a disaster for Russia and seems bit by bit to want to re-instate it.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:20:45 GMT
'the West' need to speak to Saudi, UAE, etc and ask them whose side they are on: "Whose side are you on" translates , in the real world , into "How much pain are YOU prepared to take for Ukrainians". And the answers are looking pretty varied:- ... Thank you for a detailed list. I don't want to exaggerate the issues but leaders in the West think like.. leaders in the West. Other countries don't. Many will hope to be 'neutral' (playing off each side for what works for them) or go with whatever works for them (eg most of OPEC+ probably quite happy for oil prices to go up and aren't exactly big on 'Western values' of democracy and human rights) Threats and bribes. Nasty business but it's nasty times. If Putin hopes to shape a new World order (with China) then we're going to have to start thinking beyond reacting to events and start shaping events. See post WRT to Yalta. Too late for Captain Hindsight but the future is not set! Sadly I don't think Biden is up to the job of leader of the West and the only thing worse than Biden would be Trump
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:22:25 GMT
Aren't we way beyond the idea of keeping doors open and dialogue? That is saying -after he has killed enough Ukrainians and executed their President maybe we can talk to Putin again. Minsk III or Yalta2
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:24:15 GMT
"Whose side are you on" translates , in the real world , into "How much pain are YOU prepared to take for Ukrainians". And the answers are looking pretty varied:- ... Thank you for a detailed list. I don't want to exaggerate the issues but leaders in the West think like.. leaders in the West. Other countries don't. Many will hope to be 'neutral' (playing off each side for what works for them) or go with whatever works for them (eg most of OPEC+ probably quite happy for oil prices to go up and aren't exactly big on 'Western values' of democracy and human rights) Threats and bribes. Nasty business but it's nasty times. If Putin hopes to shape a new World order (with China) then we're going to have to start thinking beyond reacting to events and start shaping events. See post WRT to Yalta. Too late for Captain Hindsight but the future is not set! Sadly I don't think Biden is up to the job of leader of the West and the only thing worse than Biden would be Trump Yep. We are playing catch up. He has been planning this for a long time
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Post by shevii on Feb 25, 2022 9:25:15 GMT
Surely SWIFT is a red herring really. Crypto currency will be his means to cash flow. It's incredibly unstable. I suppose all currencies are and if Russia had to move everything to crypto then the price would probably get a huge initial boost. Might make the pressure to ditch crypto from governments, companies and individuals irresistible and maybe even the nerdie types would think twice about it being a force for good where they seem to have been happy to ignore the global warming issues. Again I don't know enough about the countries who would accept Russian crypto payments and the powers to stop companies accepting it from Russia.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:43:15 GMT
"France says cutting Russia out of Swift "very last resort".. Along with France and Italy, Germany favours what more hawkish EU diplomats call an “incrementalist” approach to sanctions"
19m ago, 09:18: www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/25/russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-news-live-updates-russian-war-vladimir-putin-explosions-bombing-invades-kyivI actually agree with that (and see post WRT to putting the horse (trade) before the cart (SWIFT)) but of more importance is acting and being seen to act in a coordinated manner (which 'the West' is visibly not doing). Still F-all from NATO almost 30hours after the invasion started and as: " Gunfire has been heard near the government quarter of Kyiv, Associated Press reports."See previous post before the invasion WRT to military options. By the time NATO agree anything they we might not even be able to send more arms to the brave Ukrainians trying to slow Russia down.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 9:58:58 GMT
I'm not qualified to comment either way on Swift and sometimes you need wise heads in the heat of a very emotional situation, but the response seems badly coordinated given the West should have game planned this weeks ago. Maybe they, or some of them, did. Coordinated sanctions operating at the pace of the slowest, weakest link. Maybe they expected/accepted Ukraine was 'lost' and were thinking in terms of Minsk III and ensuring gas/oil/prices don't spike further? After the huge spike y'day then today: Dutch TTF Gas Mar '22 (TGH22) 106.995 -27.321 (-20.34%)
www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGH22/overviewActions speak louder than words: NATO - nothing, 'words are wind'West - new sanctions but not hitting trade hard enough to 'hurt' Putin (see cart before horse WRT to having to pay for the gas/oil/coal that C-E Europe is so dependent on) West - divided, some cracks highly visible rWorld - muted response The conclusion by some might be that Ukraine will be Russia soon (or made into a puppet state like Belarus) and hope that Putin leaves it there, at least for this Winter. Gas prices drop and Putin says he's ready to negotiate: Minsk III Macron wins the French presidency, Biden sees his approval ratings improve, Germany continues to shut down its nuclear power stations and 'General Frost' takes the Spring-Summer off while Putin plays the West for fools again (Minsk III). Then it's 'see you next Winter chaps' for 'Deja Vu (All Over Again)'
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Post by birdseye on Feb 25, 2022 10:07:00 GMT
“Someone started a war and we want this war to stop here and now,” one EU diplomat explained of the caution over Swift. “You always need to have some doors open to be able to have a dialogue to stop a war.” Aren't we way beyond the idea of keeping doors open and dialogue? That is saying -after he has killed enough Ukrainians and executed their President maybe we can talk to Putin again. Soldiers do soldiering, diplomats do diplomacy. What do you expect a diplomat to say but what he has said.
This event will run until it runs out of steam naturally.When the Russians have got what they want, whatever that is, and the marginal gains of going further are outwieghed by the marginal cost of doing so.
Reality is that he has the west and paricularly the EU by the gonads. Just imagine where Germany would be if Putin cut off all gas supplies. He can afford to do so having a large war chest of foreign currency and gold. His position is strong and Swift is less important to him that to us. It says something about the UK that the only weapon we seem to think we have is the banking system. Gone are the days when we had the tec that he was dependant on.
Since there is no stomach in the west for military adventures ( than god) Ukraine is lost and we need to hope that is the end of it. I fear it wont be but time will tell.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2022 10:24:21 GMT
Just for oddity.
The Afghan government called Russia and Ukraine to stop the war (as it increases violence, and causes civilian deaths), and start the negotiations for settling the conflict.
It also asked both governments to protect the Afghan students and refugees in Ukraine.
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