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Post by robbiealive on Jan 9, 2022 20:19:35 GMT
Crossbat: "Gratuitous football reference to please Robbie Alive. What a great draw for Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup 4th Round?"
Ha ha. Actually, my friend is from Kidder & she will be pleased at the footie news, if only in memory of her mother, who was a great fan -- tho her main sport was cycling: she was devoted to the Tour de France. Her mother, from an ordinary background & deprived of opportunities. as were most women of that generation, had a hard early life, & widowed at a v early age was never at all well-off: but she never ceased to work & struggle looking after her parents & then her two kids, both of whom went to University etc.
She loathed the Tories & said contemptuously of the Queen -- they were nearly the same age --- "all this fuss about her, but she never did a thing for women of our generation." She certainly did a much better job than Brenda in bringing up her kids! She lost faith in Blair especially over the health service & living standards for ollder people & campaigned vigorously for Richard Taylor, the Kidderminster "Doctor" candidate, who became the local MP (Wyre Forest) somewhat sensationally in 2001.
I despise this self-interested twaddle about pride in yr country, but I am proud of the achievements of the men, & esp the women, of that generation. What an easy life I had of it under their selfless upbringing!
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 9, 2022 20:24:56 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Your boys won't know what has hit them when they visit the spiritual home of English carpets. I gather the locals are already preparing giant "Welcome to Hell" banners for the forthcoming Cup game. From my experience of Kiddie they'll be lucky to find their way off the ring road to see any banners. |
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Post by EmCat on Jan 9, 2022 20:31:48 GMT
It is interesting that Johnson is increasingly been seen as Marmite even within his own party - I would have expected a much higher "don't know", simply because many politicians can be seen by party members along the lines of "Well I don't like them personally, and think they should stand down. On the other hand, they seem to be competent and capable, so maybe they should stay. In that case, put me down as a 'don't know'" |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 20:34:28 GMT
Zoe today reporting R=0.8 for London and 1.0 for England and UK. New daily cases in London is nearly down to 50% of its peak value.
SE region also showing a strong decline, while East, east midlands showing falls and others showing a clear sharp slowing. The obvious conclusion would be cases are about to tumble. Age group data showing perhaps the start of decline in almost all groups...except under 20, who will presumably show some rise now because of the return of schools.
Overall, cases are a good twice those at the peak of kent strain in January, which had comparable peaks to delta although delta continued at those higher levels for much longer, meaning there were many more recorded delta cases than kent. Although omicron has again shot up higher, it remains to be seen if it will fall fast too, as it did in SA.
Deaths continue at about 1/7 the rate when kent strain reported cases were comparable to delta plateau, and have remained much the same as throughout the last few months of delta durign the current omicron otbreak, despite that doubling of cases. So prima facie its killing at half the rate of delta, but it may also do so for a much shorter time.
If the pattern continues, then continued population testing will have become pointless in a few weeks, about on the timetable suggested for government to discontinue it. So maybe someones been looking at the numbers.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 9, 2022 21:07:29 GMT
lululemonmustdobetterA friend of mine from college comes from 'Kiddie', but she's never mentioned the link to carpets. From Wikipedia:
The modern carpet industry was founded in the area in 1785 by Brintons. The carpet industry became extremely important to the local economy, so much so that the local newspaper is still named The Shuttle after the shuttles used on the carpet looms.[15] A type of carpet was known as Kidderminster carpet or, in the United States, Ingrain carpet: this was a reversible carpet with no pile, with the pattern showing in opposite colours on the two faces, and was popular from the 18th to early 20th centuries.[16] By 1951 there were over thirty carpet manufacturers in the town,[17] including, for example, Quayle & Tranter (now defunct). They commissioned such notable artists as George Bain to create their traditional Celtic designs.[18][19] Aided by a 2004 grant from the Heritage Lottery Fund, a museum dedicated to the Kidderminster carpet industry was officially opened by Lord Cobham in 2012.[20]
Perhaps I should tag along to the match and see if I can pick up a deal on a new carpet!Come along by all means, but the carpet industry, once the bulwark of town's economy, has now all but disappeared beyond, as you cite, some living memorials to it. Accordingly, Kidderminster has a vaguely run down and sad feel to it. Its shopping centre is dated and often deserted with many of its old shops are now empty. Of course, this isn't unique to Kidderminster and it is a story you will see repeated in many old towns once reliant on industries and trades now long gone. It still retains a certain charm and character however, particularly around the Severn Valley Railway station, now refurbished and housing an excellent station bar/pub. It's quite a tourist attraction, as is the line that runs to Bridgnorth, travelling through many old Worcestershire villages that nestle in the valley alongside the Severn, proudly showing off their restored old railway stations. The whole enterprise run by volunteers. Many a TV period drama has shot scenes at Arley station! A member of the Brinton family was a long standing MP for Kidderminster. Sir Tatton Brinton and, of course, one of the country's former PMs, Stanley Baldwin, hailed from the surrounding area. Well worth a visit. A pint of Bathams in the Severn Valley Railway Station Bar and then a 400 metre walk to Aggborough to watch the Harriers play. Done it countless times before, and maybe had a few more than one pint too on occasions! Life enhancing stuff.
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 21:30:53 GMT
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Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 21:33:06 GMT
More from the Sky Poll
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Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 21:34:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 21:49:52 GMT
colin I'm not sure about the tax point (otherwise I agree with your arguments). It may not be needed. The energy prices were very heavily influenced by Putin's game (it can continue), and by the problems with infrastructure. I doubt that oil companies would enter into alternative energy equipment manufacturing, they will act as portfolio investors (some are already doing it). Some of the senior management are very resistant and want to maintain the current high yield (cash really as the yield is (not so) surprisingly low, because the exploitation of new fields is problematic), but there are now enough activist ("woke") investors to constrain them. I think the last report of BoE is wrong about the factors of inflation, but I agree with them that it is temporary. Just to make it more complicated - there is about 6 trillion dollar excess money supply (most in the stock markets) - there is no way of eliminating it with monetary measures. But the people living on extremely tight cash flow (and for them the interest rates are not very pleasing) have to be helped. However, I still think that the intervention has to be on the supply side (maybe in the style of a PFI) and not on the demand one. 1. Putin's Plan A seems to be to try to force Europe to 'lock-in' high prices for multi-year contracts but Plan B is just nail them every year as it will take many years before renewables can provide the TWhs to replace Europe's reliance on Russian gas, especially given countries like Germany are retiring nuclear early and everyone is moving towards more EVs. 2. Futures prices are assuming same game next Winter but with a drop to more 'normal' prices Winter'23-24. Govts/big business can lock those prices in (ie 'hedge') or not. Futures prices can and do obviously move around before time passes and they become spot prices. Energy is price inelastic in the short-term (and prone to manipulation) but should be more elastic in the longer-term (as more supply comes on-stream and some demand drops) www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*0/futures-prices3. BoE look at inflation 2yrs+ out so energy prices are all 'base effects'. IF prices start dropping in Winter '23-24 then they will be disinflationary (eg 6% inflation soon might end up being 0% or even -ve in '23-24) 4. Relating to your point: ' I doubt that oil companies would enter into alternative energy equipment manufacturing..'. Then I could pick from a huge array of sources but many of the big oil+gas companies know change is coming and are adapting (notably Shell and BP). They don't want to be dinosaurs and IMO too many folks seems hung up on the past with the (now) mythical view that O+G companies are all vehemently anti-green. The reality is that they have huge ££ and self-interest in investing in the future - which is green! www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/oil-companies-renewable-energy/www.powermag.com/oil-and-gas-majors-focus-on-renewable-energy-hydrogen-and-carbon-capture/etc.. PS This discussion should really move to the Issue Specific thread as it is not polling related. I agree the first sentence in your final para (and note colin 's post with the numbers being spent on 'help' elsewhere). £3-4bn Windfall Tax[1] which is then 'one-off' targeted vouchers (eg £200 per household x 20million households) would IMO be 'better' than cutting VAT. As we saw with the temporary help on UC then Rishi's concern would be that folks 'forget' the temporary/one-off nature of 'help' and then removing it (or not rolling it over) becomes political difficult. So from Rishi and CON HMG's perspective then maybe take most of the 'medicine' (tough love) now rather than raid the sweetie jar to smooth out the inflationary/disposable income impact? [1] Most of that is HMT's windfall so it could be a bit more via hitting suppliers but note we can't 'tax' Equinor (Norway) or Qatargas and without contradicting my #4 then as UK transitions to 'Net Zero' then we do need to approve some N.Sea projects. As posted many times then it is bonkers to refuse new gas fields in UK (eg Jackdaw[2]) and then import so much gas from Norway and Qatar. [2] www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/356349/shell-jackdaw-proposing-changes/ |
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 9, 2022 22:12:47 GMT
Takes me back to my young days and the glorious expansion of the Empire.  While aware that the Scots played a wholly disproportionate part in the expansion of the British Empire, as it became after 1707, though they always had a minor role in the direct slave trade itself, though not in the development of plantation slavery (both a source of oproprium these days), and assuming you were born ca. 1940, & hence that yr "young days", in any relevant sense, started a few years later, it's difficult to see how that happy highland youth coincided with the expansion, rather than the contraction of the Empire, unless, of course, "expansion" means the inglorious & repressive attempts made to shore up the crumbling empire in the '50s, or your age -- like the Other Howard's -- is, or was, a moveable feast (day). |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 22:13:14 GMT
Interesting piece of English history from over 350 years ago:
“ There is a plaque in the Old Bailey that commemorates the “courage and endurance” of Edward Bushell and 11 other jurors. In 1670, they were locked up by a judge without food and water for two days because they refused to change their not guilty verdict in the case of two Quakers who had been charged with unlawful assembly.
Bushell petitioned the courts and the chief justice at the time, Sir John Vaughan, ruled that a jury could not be punished on account of the verdict it returned. In doing so, he established in English law the essential principle of jury independence.”
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 22:14:08 GMT
yr.@ "something has to give!"-It does , and for me it will have to be taxes. Sunak & Reeves will have to accept it. From previous discussions then they might be able to wait until after GE'24. 'Political games' until then but as per GE'10 then perhaps a consensus emerges that taxes have to go up (back then it was VAT which didn't just return to 17.5% (+2.5%) but the coalition govt put it up to 20% (+5%)). I would expect Reeves will provide a 'costed' policy offering into GE'24 but obviously doesn't need to go into details now. Rishi came under pressure form the NIC increase so will need to be careful who/how he raises more money. IF energy prices do drop into '23-24 then HMT could offset the disinflationary impact by putting VAT up on energy bills (ie consumers would 'pay back' any help they receive in this year and have longer-term incentive to 'go green'[1]). Of course IF that doesn't happen then the money will have to come from somewhere else but (point is) the decision doesn't have to be made today/this year. NB Foreign Aid is unlikely to go back to 0.7% anytime soon and is still by far the 'most popular' pick in 'What sector is the UK government spending too much on?' yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/what-sector-is-the-uk-government-spending-too-much-onif you toggle between 'Conservative' and 'Labour' you'll see big partisan differences but I'd question the need to be spending more than 2% on defence (eg the 'extra' nukes) but given how difficult it was removing the temporary uplift on UC then I doubt Rishi has much room (beyond fiscal drag) to find savings in 'Welfare benefits'. [1] A 'sweetener' could then be some help in going green and that could start earlier. Tricky to 'bend' the fiscal rules to claim that is 'investment' but certainly improving energy efficiency on govt property and social housing could be claimed to be an investment (and if Insulate Britain had focussed on that rather than 'Irritate' drivers they'd maybe have got more support). See #1 in their 'Demands' www.insulatebritain.comI'll also provide a link for Conservative Environment Network 'Manifesto' (see previous post on new CON factions with claimed 116 MPs): www.cen.uk.com/manifesto |
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Post by guymonde on Jan 9, 2022 22:25:37 GMT
Colin - it could be that my CLP is not typical and the source is good. I'd say your CLP is fairly typical, certainly from my local experience. There was a bit of a myth about the Momentum inspired/orchestrated campaigning in both 2017 and 2019. I think they targeted seats quite well in 2017, but it tended to be long standing members and foot soldiers still doing most of the heavy lifting, but the additional members made some difference in terms of boots on the ground. That said, I think there was a good deal of self promotion going on from Momentum and their campaigning impact was greatly exaggerated. By 2019, even with still impressive membership levels, on paper anyway, the morale within the party was at such low levels that the campaigning tended to be desultory and defeatist. Certainly in my CLP there was no sign of Owen Jones' mythical "left wing army marching to Corbyn's flag" and, once again, the old stalwarts tended to keep the flame alive, not the new Corbyn inspired members. Most of those who joined the party to get Corbyn elected in 2015 have now left. Few of them were active members in the real sense of the word anyway and while their subscriptions will be missed, their contributions in other, probably more important, ways were near negligible. Yes that accords with my view too. They turned up for meetings where delegates were selected for positions of 'power' or to endorse Corbynist candidates for national positions. One council ward had three Corbynite candidates selected and many canvassed for them, but this was the only ward where the Labour vote actually went down in 2018! To be fair, we had a flood of people from outside the area - young, enthusiastic, capable - on election day in 2017 and they certainly made an impact in securing a marginal seat. There are currently about 240 members in the ward where I live, down from maybe 270 at the peak but if we go canvassing it's usually the MP, MP's spouse and me plus one other if we're lucky (but he's just emigrated to Spain!) |
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Post by tancred on Jan 9, 2022 22:28:57 GMT
"Sinn Fein at 33%, up two points, in tomorrow's Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll. FG at 23%, down two points, FF 19% - up two." That's a pretty striking poll! And they haven't fully turned off the Furlough taps yet either... I suppose it's an inherent risk when three parties take a comfortable majority of the vote between them, and two go into coalition together, that the third becomes the default alternative for those unhappy with the coalition, at least initially? What is the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael? My understanding is that they are basically the LibDems and Tories. |
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 22:33:21 GMT
@danny - no real idea why I'm bothering responding, except to hold to the line that the truth must be heard, and lies challenged.
"There is much fear of covid which has been quite deliberately whipped up by governent. They might have taken the exact opposite approach, and encouraged stoical endurance and a stiff upper lip."
That's right. 170,000 deaths in the UK could just have been avoided if only those wimpy victims could have stood up for themselves and been a bit more stoical.
Pathetic, and insulting. Have you no decency as a human being?
"On the contrary, we have normalised a quite modest death toll from this epidemic, compared to historical standards, as a terrible catastrophe."
Really? I mean, really? "Historical standards" means mass infant mortality, cholera epidemics, the Black Death. We've moved on, thankfully. The excess deaths figure tells the story - it's not about how many people died fifty or a hundred years ago, but about modern standards.
"Firstly every pathogen whch ever started an outbreak ende up in a mild form. If it hadnt we would all be dead. Secondy, there is good theoretial modelling to show why this would be - because the most successful strain will be the one which spreads faster than the rest. That has to be the one which doesnt rapidly kill its hosts..."
Absolute bollocks on all counts. Smallpox didn't get any milder. Some evidence suggests it was around for centuries as a mild illness and then became a killer. The idea that speed of transmission is important, but the death of the host or otherwise isn't. It all depends if the host is infectious before death. Think ebola. Successful pathogen, highly fatal. So long as it transmits before death, it's happy. In the case of covid, with pre symptomatic spread, all victims could die and the virus would still be highly successful. You have no idea what you are talking about with your cod evolutionary theory.
"They dont need to change all the time there are more available. Its as cases start falling or even have fallen very much, then they will evolve to reach new hosts."
Complete rubbish. I mean, total, utter, rubbish. Pathogens hav no "need". They have no will, no motive choice. They evolve AT RANDOM. That's VERY, VERY important for you to understand. New variants are merely a function of the rate of change times the number of cases, nothing more, nothing less. The environmental circumstances into which each variant emerges will determine the survivability of that variant, but more cases means more variants. When pathogens run out of new hosts, they run out of new hosts, and the game is up. They don't call a conference and decide to mutate.
Whatever you do, don't consider a career in evolutionary biology.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 22:38:56 GMT
robbiealive
See thon wee smiley face at the end of my comment?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 22:44:35 GMT
tancred
"What is the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael? My understanding is that they are basically the LibDems and Tories."
It's usually unwise to make assumptions about the nature of political parties, in countries other than your own, on the basis of comparison with those operating in your own wee neck of the woods.
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 22:53:22 GMT
I see @tw is in 'full on' 'apostrophe mode' tonight. 'Entertaining' to see the stream of 'sources', as if that 'makes sense' of the post.[1] [1] 'Not sure' why this was placed here. But then I suspect, 'neither was he'.  The future is bollocks, whatever. |
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 23:03:18 GMT
Update on Omicron and the idea of reducng isolation times: www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.htmlA study from Japan (caution, small sample size of 21) that shows with Omicron, peak viral shedding occurs at 3-6 days following symptoms, with high viral loads still found at 7-9 days, and not shedding after day 10. This contrasts with previous variants, where the highest lod was just before or at the point of first symptoms and declining rapidly thereafter. So, if you want to prolonge the outbreak, hospitalise and kill more people, and create more economic damage, reduce the isolation period to 5 days. Simples. |
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Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 23:18:51 GMT
alecThis Government has a penchant for leaking ideas they're not to sure about and then backtracking when they go down like a lead balloon. It isn't a sign of a confident Government. In any case, I suspect that 5 day isolation is as daft an idea as stopping free LFTs.
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Post by mercian on Jan 9, 2022 23:21:08 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 23:24:38 GMT
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Post by tancred on Jan 9, 2022 23:27:10 GMT
Alec: More Brexit silliness - www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/09/brexit-decision-left-uk-firms-paying-10-more-than-eu-rivals-for-emissions
Because Frost demanded we were different, UK firms pay more for varbon credits.
Daft as brushes, the lost of them.While I'm all for highlighting the malign effects of brexit as they pile up, I was a bit puzzled by the Guardian story. Here's the relevant quote: "UK companies are paying more than £75 a tonne for the carbon they emit, while similar industries in the EU are paying up to about €85 a tonne. The difference has narrowed slightly in recent days, but was reaching about €8-9 a tonne of carbon in the past month, equating to a premium of about 10% being paid by UK companies.Now, I've noticed before that their environment correspondent seems on shaky ground when handling economic stories. But the figures she uses don't support the "10% extra" headline. At £1=€1.19, the UK price equals €89.25, which is just 5% more, and I presume within the usual variance to be expected between different trading systems. Frost has all the intelligence of a flea. The individual is lower than animal life, I class him as an insect. |
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Post by mercian on Jan 9, 2022 23:27:41 GMT
I see @tw is in 'full on' 'apostrophe mode' tonight. 'Entertaining' to see the stream of 'sources', as if that 'makes sense' of the post.[1] [1] 'Not sure' why this was placed here. But then I suspect, 'neither was he'. The future is bollocks, whatever. I love coming here to be cheered up 🤣 |
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Post by tancred on Jan 9, 2022 23:28:11 GMT
tancred "What is the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael? My understanding is that they are basically the LibDems and Tories." It's usually unwise to make assumptions about the nature of political parties, in countries other than your own, on the basis of comparison with those operating in your own wee neck of the woods. Instead of making smartass comments, which can't you answer the fecking question? |
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Post by tancred on Jan 9, 2022 23:29:45 GMT
Mmmm Energy - we're currently paying about £1,200 per year and our tariff runs to September '22, providing our supplier stays in business. I've just been on the Which? Switch site and I can go on variable and pay the equivalent of an extra £300 a year 'til the cap gets reviewed, or a one year fix at an extra £1,300 or so, or a two year fix at £1,800 a year more than now. Presumably those fixes are the suppliers hoping to, at least, cover their costs, which means their current pricing will be pessimistic, discouraging long term commitments. If we allowed for that it looks as if our cost increase will be around £1,000 in the next year and an additional £500 next year. I can't imagine how low income households will manage with rises like that, plus general inflation, plus taxation increases. Something has to give. We're more or less the same, when our fixed term runs out at the end of the month, we have a choice of paying an extra £300 to go on variable rate, but British Gas (who surprised me by being cheapest last time) are particularly keen we should sign up to their fixed deal for two years (iirc) at an extra £1600 a year. So keen are they that they've offered it as a time limited offer three times now, and it's about to expire for the third time. I don't believe for a single moment that, even if prices do rise to this extent, that any of us will pay for it, at least directly. Even the craziest of the let them eat cake must see this would constitute electoral suicide. My prediction, for what little it's worth as I'm almost always wrong, is that the government will bail out the power companies, though probably only after a couple of rebellions and embarrassing u-turns, and after even more political damage has been done I gave up on British Gas years ago. Initially went with Ovo, then Octopus, and happy with them. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 9, 2022 23:33:29 GMT
This is precisely what I'm talking about - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/09/nadhim-zahawi-denies-there-is-plan-to-end-free-lateral-flow-covid-testsThe idea that if a pathogen is endemic rather than pandemic means it's nicer is barking. Smallpox was endemic once. But we've tried this already. Throughout the autumn the UK had 150 people dying a day while many other similar countries had far better outcomes, because our government is happy to tolerate very high case loads and everything that goes with that. The answer is to make testing difficult, cut isolation, and pretend everything is fine. I can't be certain, but I currently expect the UK's wave to be prolonged and subside relatively slowly, while we see far more rapid falls in many other countries, and then, when the next variant hits, we'll cycle through the same world beating acceleration and slow tail, because that's what happens when you don't target suppression. Each time the NHS workers will be thrown under the bus and the financial bill will get worse. Agree. I'm really concerned that we'll be back to Square 1 again next Autumn with yet another variant coming in from abroad, and the (UK) Government too slow to act. The Government needs to be planning ahead in my view, not pretending everything goes back to normal and that COVID disappears. It isn't flu, and anyone saying it is so is wilfully stupid. Please!! We have to learn to live with Covid. We can't shut down the country just because there is another strain around - there may be hundreds of strains still to come. The government is done with Covid, and rightly so, because people need to take their own precautions instead of relying on the government to manage their lives for them. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 23:33:45 GMT
Mercian
Thanks for that info. The requirement "to impose a curfew upon all Welshmen visiting Chester, and to ensure that they left their arms at the city gates and did not gather in groups of more than three", seems more draconian than current Welsh Covid rules, so it seems churlish for Chester FC to be complaining.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 9, 2022 23:36:08 GMT
tancred.
Do your own fecking reading, and stop being such a lazy git.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 9, 2022 23:42:36 GMT
See thon wee smiley face at the end of my comment?
I never notice those silly yellow blobs. I did agitate against them on the old site years ago. They are the feeblest form of irony, indicative of the unconfident inexpressiveness of of the posters who use them.
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