Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 16:26:25 GMT
PS Related to your reply on 'help' for Energy then if BoE intend to stop the Magic Money Tree then tough decisions are coming. If we want to continue with allowing everyone to test whenever they want then £6bn-ish per annum has to be found (or not spent) elsewhere. Reeves might have the luxury of opposition and not having to say where the money comes from but if no/limited new taxes are coming and given austerity is toxic then something has to give! Testing has arguably helped avoid lockdown (see 'others') in the present/past and could be ramped up quickly in the future if required but with vaccines, treatments and milder variants then we move from pandemic to endemic and need to finally start treating Covid like the flu (ie regular boosters for those that need them, testing where it makes a big difference, new/near normal for everyone else) I agree that "living with covid" is a socio -economic imperative-for every country. We can't go on living like this. Polyvalent/multi valent vaccines, new drugs & treatments are all in prospect/train. That ST front page article quotes Dr Mike Tildesley, of University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group:- " “The thing that might happen in the future is you may see the emergence of a new variant that is less severe, and ultimately, in the long term, what happens is Covid becomes endemic and you have a less severe version. It’s very similar to the common cold that we’ve lived with for many years. “We’re not quite there yet but possibly Omicron is the first ray of light there that suggests that may happen in the longer term. It is, of course, much more transmissible than Delta was, which is concerning, but much less severe.” What the timetable is from here to there I leave to the "experts" ! " On Energy costs. BoE say inflation will peak at 7% in spring -but it isn't going to be sustained. Energy cost must be a big component. So UF they are "an anomaly" then Reeves is right imo to advocate a one off tax-and the energy sector is making a profit from these prices. But the question you asked is the killer-how long for?. If BoE et al are wrong and energy costs stay high -this high-we are in totally new territory I think. And Ed Conway's piece on the dash for a "net zero" which still requires oil and coal to manufacture wind turbines and PV panels will become more relevant. If politicians try telling hardpressed voters to consume less energy and/or accept the cost -for a zero carbon source which is no such thing -they are asking for trouble. yr.@ "something has to give!"-It does , and for me it will have to be taxes. Sunak & Reeves will have to accept it. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 16:28:42 GMT
Colin - thanks for the ST cut and paste. Re ''One suggestion is that the membership has fallen to just over 400,000. “The figures I’ve seen suggest we’ve lost well over 100,000 members, and most of those were the people who knocked on doors. That’s also millions of pounds no longer coming in,” a source said.'' The 400 000 may be correct, although my CLP has lost 10% or so, but the ones lost are not door knockers even leaflet posters etc. In fact those who do the work are more engaged as for most of them their hearts weren't really in it in 2019 (17 different). Thanks Not a very good "source" then ! |
|
|
|
Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 16:29:05 GMT
This is precisely what I'm talking about - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/09/nadhim-zahawi-denies-there-is-plan-to-end-free-lateral-flow-covid-testsThe idea that if a pathogen is endemic rather than pandemic means it's nicer is barking. Smallpox was endemic once. But we've tried this already. Throughout the autumn the UK had 150 people dying a day while many other similar countries had far better outcomes, because our government is happy to tolerate very high case loads and everything that goes with that. The answer is to make testing difficult, cut isolation, and pretend everything is fine. I can't be certain, but I currently expect the UK's wave to be prolonged and subside relatively slowly, while we see far more rapid falls in many other countries, and then, when the next variant hits, we'll cycle through the same world beating acceleration and slow tail, because that's what happens when you don't target suppression. Each time the NHS workers will be thrown under the bus and the financial bill will get worse. Agree. I'm really concerned that we'll be back to Square 1 again next Autumn with yet another variant coming in from abroad, and the (UK) Government too slow to act. The Government needs to be planning ahead in my view, not pretending everything goes back to normal and that COVID disappears. It isn't flu, and anyone saying it is so is wilfully stupid. |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Jan 9, 2022 16:47:01 GMT
Colin - it could be that my CLP is not typical and the source is good.
|
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Jan 9, 2022 16:48:06 GMT
Colin - thanks for the ST cut and paste. Re ''One suggestion is that the membership has fallen to just over 400,000. “The figures I’ve seen suggest we’ve lost well over 100,000 members, and most of those were the people who knocked on doors. That’s also millions of pounds no longer coming in,” a source said.'' The 400 000 may be correct, although my CLP has lost 10% or so, but the ones lost are not door knockers even leaflet posters etc. In fact those who do the work are more engaged as for most of them their hearts weren't really in it in 2019 (17 different). Similar, I think, though we've lost one previously enthusiastic leafletter in my ward. Labour party subs are very low - £4.42 full, £2.21 concession. I pay a full sub but it's barely half what I pay to the Co-Operative party. Mind you the Tory party is even less - £25 pa for a full sub - I suppose they're more desperate for members. If they said - financial crisis, optional 'Attlee rate' £10 per month I reckon there'd be quite a few takers (me included) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 16:50:01 GMT
@tw
An article in ST Business about response to energy costs elsewhere:-
My brief synopsis :-
France- Energy vouchers & gas price cap-€4 billion.
Germany-Reduced " Green Energy " charges- €3.3 billion
Spain-Energy "tax cuts" . Windfall Tax.-€2.6 billion
Italy-Green tax removals and bonus payments -€3 billion
The Netherlands. Green Taxes slashed plus low income payments -€2.7 billion.
The pattern looks like rolling back "Green Taxes"..........as you rightly ask-how long for ? !
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 16:59:35 GMT
colinI'm not sure about the tax point (otherwise I agree with your arguments). It may not be needed. The energy prices were very heavily influenced by Putin's game (it can continue), and by the problems with infrastructure. I doubt that oil companies would enter into alternative energy equipment manufacturing, they will act as portfolio investors (some are already doing it). Some of the senior management are very resistant and want to maintain the current high yield (cash really as the yield is (not so) surprisingly low, because the exploitation of new fields is problematic), but there are now enough activist ("woke") investors to constrain them. I think the last report of BoE is wrong about the factors of inflation, but I agree with them that it is temporary. Just to make it more complicated - there is about 6 trillion dollar excess money supply (most in the stock markets) - there is no way of eliminating it with monetary measures. But the people living on extremely tight cash flow (and for them the interest rates are not very pleasing) have to be helped. However, I still think that the intervention has to be on the supply side (maybe in the style of a PFI) and not on the demand one.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jan 9, 2022 17:07:45 GMT
Thanks colin- interesting stuff- some of it is down to whether you believe the sources (plus their angle/emphasis on things). I can't really comment on the activist side of things and I don't doubt what Guymonde and Jim jam are saying as reliable sources for their constituencies/wards. I would say council and by elections results Lab were certainly underperforming polling- remains to be seen if that trend continues now the polls have changed and people have turned against Johnson. These are low turnout elections so it suggests either lack of motivation among Lab voters and wins coming from postal vote Tories (which was my view) or lack of activity to win seats that could be won on low turnouts. LD seem to be having less problems in their traditionally strong territory of winning low turnout elections which is a change from 2010-2017. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,503
|
Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 17:25:32 GMT
A neat little chart showing how more more children have been admitted to hospital with the Omicron variant than through the entire first wave with the original variant - Then let me outline one reason why this might be happening. 1) before covid, children typically caught 3-4 corona virus infections each year. (researcher reported on this sumer 2020) 2) Blood taken before the arrval of covid showed most people had both antibody and t cell immunity to covid. Perhaps not enough to prevent infection, but presumably to mitigate it. (research early 2020) 3) It is likely 1 explains 2. The most likely way people in general had imunity, was because they had been vaccinated by exposure to related corona viruses. In particular there are some in regular circulation in the world, one of which is considered as the likely cause of a flu epidemic about 1890. Adults pre covid got fewer corona virus infections than children, averaging more like 1 every 4 years. But presumably incidence falls with age as it does with covid, and this is at least one reason why older people who have had least recent exposure to corona viruses have fared worst against covid.
4) We know vaccines wear off after about 4 months against repeat infection. Ditto after infection, though may take longer.
So faced with this information, what did we do? We closed schools and therefore prevented children getting their three monthly corona virus boosters. Their immunity to covid began to fade. The entire population would have discontinued its safe corona virus vaccinations because of lockdown. (non-covid infections fell far more steeply than covid)
Exactly my pont.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,503
|
Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 17:46:49 GMT
A really bizarre story about a census in Scotland where apparently the Scottish government are asking 14 year olds about their experience of anal sex. Appears to have united both left and right in opposition. I have no personal knowledge of the subject but understand it can be hard on the knees. i recall many years ago a statistic that more cases of sodomy took place between heterosexuals than homosexuals. Which I thought amusing at the time.
I also recall Margarate Thatcher withdrew funding for a survey on sexual habits in her time, after publicity. i think the welcome foundation or some other charity picked it up.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 18:10:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jan 9, 2022 18:13:38 GMT
That's at odds with the previous polling isn't it to have Sunak ahead? Just basing this on the fact that people on here were suggesting Truss was leading so must have been another poll/survey? |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,503
|
Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 18:23:44 GMT
While there were some questionable elements in the model, the outcome could (!) be right that Covid could be the second pandemic/endemic that the humankind eliminated completely. But it is a model only. In the meantime we need the social rules that helped us so far (in spite of the breaches). There are suggestions (ie a published peer reviewed paper) that omicron has most probably been living in mice for the last year and a half before returning to humans.
Any disease which can do that cannot be eradicated. In fact eradicating it amongst the human population instead of allowing it to circulate and so maintaining high imunity is exactly how such diseases beccome dangerous.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 18:24:30 GMT
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,493
|
Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 18:31:23 GMT
From the Sky poll
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,493
|
Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 18:32:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jan 9, 2022 18:39:03 GMT
Colin - it could be that my CLP is not typical and the source is good. I'd say your CLP is fairly typical, certainly from my local experience. There was a bit of a myth about the Momentum inspired/orchestrated campaigning in both 2017 and 2019. I think they targeted seats quite well in 2017, but it tended to be long standing members and foot soldiers still doing most of the heavy lifting, but the additional members made some difference in terms of boots on the ground. That said, I think there was a good deal of self promotion going on from Momentum and their campaigning impact was greatly exaggerated. By 2019, even with still impressive membership levels, on paper anyway, the morale within the party was at such low levels that the campaigning tended to be desultory and defeatist. Certainly in my CLP there was no sign of Owen Jones' mythical "left wing army marching to Corbyn's flag" and, once again, the old stalwarts tended to keep the flame alive, not the new Corbyn inspired members. Most of those who joined the party to get Corbyn elected in 2015 have now left. Few of them were active members in the real sense of the word anyway and while their subscriptions will be missed, their contributions in other, probably more important, ways were near negligible. Of course, and this applies to all political parties and voluntary organisations, the vast majority of the members are dormant and inactive. In modern politics, mass membership is a bit of a mirage, certainly in terms of electioneering success. Labour lost twice pretty soundly with 500,000 plus members and the keys to electoral triumph probably lie elsewhere. Having a credible leader and set of policies is fairly useful and whilst members bring in some revenue, without other sources and donations, all parties, including the Tories, are financial basket cases. I gather 25% of donations to the Tory Party come from 10 individuals. Power brings in donations as does the likelihood of gaining it. If Labour look like winning, money will roll in as will all sorts of glory hunting smart alecs. The money is important though.. Labour shouldn't be coy about garnering individual donations as long as they are transparent and I suspect with trade unions, particularly UNITE, starting to question the political levy and links to Labour, the party will need its own more imaginative revenue streams now. Len's £5 million for a kingmaker's role in the party was probably never a very clever idea anyway. Bum deal for Labour, but good for Len who wasn't much interested in union business anyway. His successor seems a far more sensible and impressive cove. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 18:48:47 GMT
neiljIt is interesting how many different ways some data (this time poll on Con leadership) can be reported.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jan 9, 2022 18:53:02 GMT
Gratuitous football reference to please Robbie Alive. What a great draw for Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup 4th Round? The Hammers at home for Worcestershire's second biggest football club (behind Redditch United who play at the refurbished Theatre of Needles). Shame that a former spinster of this parish, Howard from Bristol, isn't still a contributor (are you out there Howard??) because we used to have sentimental old chats about football in the South West and how the Severn Valley Railway trains used to chug past the Harriers Aggborough ground on matchdays. I gather the 4.26 to Bridgnorth blew its whistle as it went past the ground yesterday, knowing that the Harriers had just equalised. Most of the 5,000 packed into the ground cheered the train too. They were still clearing the joyous and good natured pitch invasion that greeted the equaliser. at the time 16 minutes time was added on to allow for this. The game finished well after 5.00pm!
Tickets for the Hammers game will be gold dust but, as a son of Worcestershire, I shall try my very best to get one so I can cheer the lads on. I was a big mate and former cricketing colleague of an ex Harriers Manager. Ian "lets get some ale down our gizzards" Britton.
Danny Dyer, your boys are in for a hell of a game!
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 9, 2022 19:00:33 GMT
Gratuitous football reference to please Robbie Alive. What a great draw for Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup 4th Round? The Hammers at home for Worcestershire's second biggest football club (behind Redditch United who play at the refurbished Theatre of Needles). Shame that a former spinster of this parish, Howard from Bristol, isn't still a contributor (are you out there Howard??) because we used to have sentimental old chats about football in the South West and how the Severn Valley Railway trains used to chug past the Harriers Aggborough ground on matchdays. I gather the 4.26 to Bridgnorth blew its whistle as it went past the ground yesterday, knowing that the Harriers had just equalised. Most of the 5,000 packed into the ground cheered the train too. They were still clearing the joyous and good natured pitch invasion that greeted the equaliser. at the time 16 minutes time was added on to allow for this. The game finished well after 5.00pm! Tickets for the Hammers game will be gold dust but, as a son of Worcestershire, I shall try my very best to get one so I can cheer the lads on. I was a big mate and former cricketing colleague of an ex Harriers Manager. Ian "lets get some ale down our gizzards" Britton. Danny Dyer, your boys are in for a hell of a game! Oh, the Irons are our kickieball team. |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jan 9, 2022 19:11:12 GMT
colinYes- I remember now so basically Sky proper poll, Conservative Home not rogue but limited to a certain degree by an element of self selection. Sunak probably still favourite.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 19:24:15 GMT
colin Yes- I remember now so basically Sky proper poll, Conservative Home not rogue but limited to a certain degree by an element of self selection. Sunak probably still favourite. Hope so.  |
|
|
|
Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 9, 2022 19:26:17 GMT
Mmmm Energy - we're currently paying about £1,200 per year and our tariff runs to September '22, providing our supplier stays in business. I've just been on the Which? Switch site and I can go on variable and pay the equivalent of an extra £300 a year 'til the cap gets reviewed, or a one year fix at an extra £1,300 or so, or a two year fix at £1,800 a year more than now. Presumably those fixes are the suppliers hoping to, at least, cover their costs, which means their current pricing will be pessimistic, discouraging long term commitments. If we allowed for that it looks as if our cost increase will be around £1,000 in the next year and an additional £500 next year. I can't imagine how low income households will manage with rises like that, plus general inflation, plus taxation increases. Something has to give. We're more or less the same, when our fixed term runs out at the end of the month, we have a choice of paying an extra £300 to go on variable rate, but British Gas (who surprised me by being cheapest last time) are particularly keen we should sign up to their fixed deal for two years (iirc) at an extra £1600 a year. So keen are they that they've offered it as a time limited offer three times now, and it's about to expire for the third time. I don't believe for a single moment that, even if prices do rise to this extent, that any of us will pay for it, at least directly. Even the craziest of the let them eat cake must see this would constitute electoral suicide. My prediction, for what little it's worth as I'm almost always wrong, is that the government will bail out the power companies, though probably only after a couple of rebellions and embarrassing u-turns, and after even more political damage has been done |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,493
|
Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 19:34:12 GMT
Sunak if I remember from polling, is far more popular in the country than Truss.
|
|
|
|
Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 19:43:27 GMT
Sunak if I remember from polling, is far more popular in the country than Truss. True I'm sure, but it's who is most popular amongst Tory MPs and then the membership of the Tory Party that becomes the PM if Johnson stands down. The country will only have a say at the GE. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jan 9, 2022 19:46:21 GMT
lululemonmustdobetterYour boys won't know what has hit them when they visit the spiritual home of English carpets. I gather the locals are already preparing giant "Welcome to Hell" banners for the forthcoming Cup game.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,503
|
Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 19:47:13 GMT
steve - "Incidentally the graph you have provided is fundamentally flawed around mid December about 50% -70% of hospital admissions would have been from delta variant , some still will be , not 100% omicron" Yes, I think that is a perfectly valid observation. But it doesn't alter the central point: it's intellectually lazy and counter factual to claim covid is going to naturally evolve to be milder: Delta was much more sever than the original variant, Omicron less so, but still significantly worse. Hmm. What is the evidence for that? Cases reported by zoe were much higher for the first outbreak than delta. No one else was counting then. Or displaying the classic human failings of panic driving our actions. There is much fear of covid which has been quite deliberately whipped up by governent. They might have taken the exact opposite approach, and encouraged stoical endurance and a stiff upper lip. i dont believe fear reduced the number of cases, or the SUL would have increased them. It was about encouraging compliance with government policy, which many seem to believe was wrong.
On the contrary, we have normalised a quite modest death toll from this epidemic, compared to historical standards, as a terrible catastrophe.
No, we have not. Firstly every pathogen whch ever started an outbreak ende up in a mild form. If it hadnt we would all be dead. Secondy, there is good theoretial modelling to show why this would be - because the most successful strain will be the one which spreads faster than the rest. That has to be the one which doesnt rapidly kill its hosts, and preferably also leaves them in a state they can be reinfected in the not too distant future.
For a change I agree. There was a belief test and trace could end the outbreak. There was a belief a vaccine would end the outbreak. Both failed. It wasnt so much that 'something would turn up' but that new and experimental technical techniques which already existed could halt the disease. Their capability to do this was hugely exaggerated by their medical proponents (backed no doubt by an industry which has profited hugely)
No. Pathogens evolve when they run out of new hosts, not when they have many of them. They dont need to change all the time there are more available. Its as cases start falling or even have fallen very much, then they will evolve to reach new hosts. If you impose lockdown and it works to prevent spread, then strains will be favoured able to better evade lockdown. Whatever intervention you make will encourage changes to overcome it.
Agree here too. It seems particularly stupid repeat vaccinating with an outdated vaccine. The evidence seems to be its long term protection against seious illness isnt being changed by repeating it, just a short term reduction in new cases. So short tem that by the time an epidemic might be expected to die down, those first re-vaccinated are becoming susceptible again and could keep the whole cycle going forever. Daft as a brush.
What has always been needed is for anyone having either had an infection already or a doble vaccination to go out and catch new strains so as to update that immunity...instead of repeat imprinting the same old outdated version. (this also applies to anyone safe from the outset, of course)
We have certainly deliberately extended the duration of this epidemic. I dont see any metric whereby this made matters better. Smallpox was endemic once. However it does not rapidly mutate like covid so as to evade vaccines. That seems to be the goal of the UK government - to slow its evolution which will therefore delay its end. The booter policy seems likely to do this too, beause it will delay people cacthcing it and becoming immune by a few onths but obviously therefore keep it going. South africa didnt do any of this nonsense. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 19:47:41 GMT
Sunak if I remember from polling, is far more popular in the country than Truss. True I'm sure, but it's who is most popular amongst Tory MPs and then the membership of the Tory Party that becomes the PM if Johnson stands down.The country will only have a say at the GE. P.S. The poll of the members is still strongly indicative that Johnson retains their confidence, MPs will take note of this, particularly after the way the European rebels were dispatched. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 9, 2022 20:17:48 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Your boys won't know what has hit them when they visit the spiritual home of English carpets. I gather the locals are already preparing giant "Welcome to Hell" banners for the forthcoming Cup game. |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jan 9, 2022 20:18:16 GMT
I'd say your CLP is fairly typical, certainly from my local experience. There was a bit of a myth about the Momentum inspired/orchestrated campaigning in both 2017 and 2019. I think they targeted seats quite well in 2017, but it tended to be long standing members and foot soldiers still doing most of the heavy lifting, but the additional members made some difference in terms of boots on the ground. That said, I think there was a good deal of self promotion going on from Momentum and their campaigning impact was greatly exaggerated. By 2019, even with still impressive membership levels, on paper anyway, the morale within the party was at such low levels that the campaigning tended to be desultory and defeatist. Certainly in my CLP there was no sign of Owen Jones' mythical "left wing army marching to Corbyn's flag" and, once again, the old stalwarts tended to keep the flame alive, not the new Corbyn inspired members. Most of those who joined the party to get Corbyn elected in 2015 have now left. Few of them were active members in the real sense of the word anyway and while their subscriptions will be missed, their contributions in other, probably more important, ways were near negligible. Like I say don't know given there's not that big a range of constituencies that many people have provided opinions on, but sounds about the right sort of summary. I wonder though how important door knocking is these days. I've no doubt it helps at low turnout elections where's it is more about GOTV of your own supporters. At a General Election perhaps the main use is making sure voters know it's a two horse race (even if it is a 4 horse one!). Back in my day canvassers weren't there to convert people unless they wanted to be converted but just to ensure GOTV which is less relevant at a General Election. You could also be missing the impact of social media campaigns- sometimes money, sometimes keyboard warriors. Going back to colin s Grand daughter, I didn't get the impression she was a member or an activist but somewhere along the line there were active FB communities springing up and passing the word along. Maybe simply being a member makes you more connected to doing retweets etc. I remember Dr Mibbles talking about how they could reach x number of people (maybe hundreds of thousands) via social media retweets with some sort of pyramid involved. On the funding you seem a little bit over confident to me. I take your point about funds coming in if they are going to back a winner but it comes at a cost- cash for peerages, F1 and so on. There's not that many individuals who are really going to give something for nothing so watch this space for things like private healthcare lobbyists. |
|
