8-Jan-2022 : LAB: 39 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 11 / GRN: 5

[domjg]

Jan 14, 2022 10:29:14 GMT colin said:

Jan 14, 2022 10:22:23 GMT domjg said:

colin Fair enough but whether we like it or not esp in a mass media age leading governing politicians are in a position of great influence. If for example a PM gives the impression that a certain prejudice is acceptable then many of those in wider society holding that prejudice will feel emboldened to express it openly and others will be less likely to check themselves if they feel that way inclined. Power and responsibility and all that. 

Best we dont pursue that I think -it will be endless and boring.

I'm sure we could agree on a few specific key attributes of our desired political leadership. I have no doubt too that our specification would exclude any politician we have known.

But Morality/Ethics !-its a minefield &( insofar as I understand it) I'm  a bit more Wittgenstein than Chomsky. 

colin "I'm a bit more Wittgenstein than Chomsky" - You don't believe in Universal Grammar? Fair enough it's not as popular a theory as it once was

[neilj]

[neilj]

[statgeek]

Jan 14, 2022 7:59:29 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

alec & Danny

Hi guys, just want to point out this is the 'slagging of Johnson thread', there is a seperearte thread for Covid.

Had to lol at that.

Jan 14, 2022 8:01:15 GMT Danny said:

This isnt about covid, but about posters throwing around allegations of lying which they cannot substantiate.  No one should be doing that on here.

Wow. Just wow. Substantiation. Awfully long word for a no-vaccine, herd immunity preacher.

[tancred]

Lots of noise at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens when the dust settles.

[neilj]

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2022 8:19:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Hi Danny
However, I have to mention that you yourself just made a covid post.

Yes on the Covid thread - I don't think reminding posters that there is a separate thread for covid counts as posting about covid, and commenting on partygate is different to discussions about SA/herd immunity etc. Such post distract us from the primary function of this thread which is to lampoon our ridiculous PM till he see the light and resigns. ☮ Perhaps you and Alex should seek satisfaction in a duel? Posts at dawn?

Ms Lemon: Just to let you know that I have set up a mandolin-friendly thread specifically for asking people to remove any posts which mention the word c*vid to the appropriate c*vid thread.

Many thanks for your cooperation.

[statgeek]

Jan 14, 2022 10:44:21 GMT neilj said:

"The polling situation for the Conservatives is worse than you think"

The Apathy Party? Now that's a party I could get used to.

Change nothing. Try nothing. Harm no one. Con no one. 

[jib]

Danny

"With, as I said, a total of only 30% of their population having been vaccinated and only twice. And yet they had only a minor problem with omicron. What else could they have relied upon for this except the remaining 70% of the population being sufficiently immune to the disease that it didnt need vaccination at all? Are you agreeing that it was never necessary to vacinate the other 70% and therefore was not necessary to do so here either?"

Omicron was hardly a minor problem for the unvaccinated and vulnerable, and we'll wait and see what actual impact it has.

You are, as usual, running with the hares and hunting with the hounds on this issue.

My arguments have been clear: vaccination and lockdown type measures save lives.

There is little point in me debating or justifying your contradictions on this subject. You can manage to do that and make a complete fool of yourself without external assistance.

[steve]

It's possible that sovereign immunity allowed Mrs Windsor to decline to comply with covid restrictions , but she did at the funeral of her husband of over sixty years.

Meanwhile team Spaffer the rabble responsible for the restrictions were boogying on down and getting ratted on plonk.

Says all you need to know about this regime, rotten from the head down.

[steve]

Attachment Deleted


Meanwhile after managing to insult both Scots and the Welsh Tories in the space of less than 24 hours. Jacob Rees Mogg resumes his normal activities.

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 14, 2022 10:57:25 GMT @crofty said:

Jan 14, 2022 8:19:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Hi Danny
However, I have to mention that you yourself just made a covid post.

Yes on the Covid thread - I don't think reminding posters that there is a separate thread for covid counts as posting about covid, and commenting on partygate is different to discussions about SA/herd immunity etc. Such post distract us from the primary function of this thread which is to lampoon our ridiculous PM till he see the light and resigns. ☮ Perhaps you and Alex should seek satisfaction in a duel? Posts at dawn?

Ms Lemon: Just to let you know that I have set up a mandolin-friendly thread specifically for asking people to remove any posts which mention the word c*vid to the appropriate c*vid thread.

Many thanks for your cooperation.

Can I set up a simple thread on synths for those sophisticates sympathetic to their synchronicity or should silence signify significant satisfaction. 

[crossbat11]

Well, off for the day now. Mrs H and I are taking the bus to Tewkesbury to spend some time in that historic town (War of the Roses decider took place there. Farewell House of Lancaster. You battled hard but in vain.) Wonderful crisp and frosty morning here in the glorious Vale of Evesham in the shadow of the Housman immortalised Bredon Hill

It will be a historic day for me too. I turned 66 two weeks ago and it will be my first use of my pensioners free bus pass. I'll have to shell out for Mrs H though.

When we take some lunch in one of Tewkesbury's many superb half timbered old pubs, I shall raise a glass and propose a toast to those two old rascals, Gordon and Tony. My wife, once a Tory now a Labour voter, will join me too, no doubt. How many of the locals here in Toryland will join me though, I'm not so sure. I'll probably to be turfed out, but what the hell. Let's see what reaction I get. I like doing these sorts of things. Once found a Harold Wilson fan in a Stratford pub of all places. I proposed a toast to him in the Black Swan (Dirty Duck)on the day he would have celebrated his 100th birthday. Mixed reaction, but a few surprising fellow toasters. Not quite All for Harold, but a few were.

So, good on you (Sir) Tony and Gordon. Both Mrs H and I have still got some time for you, even if few others have.

Good day one and all.

[James E]

Tables for YouGov here:

docs.cdn.yougov.com/48dfh8v55q/TheTimes_VI_220113_W.pdf

Highest yet Con>Lab switching of 13% of those who give a voting intention (or 9% of total Con2019 sample)

Huge amounts of 'Don't Know' from Con2019 voters: 25% compared to 11% Lab. A 50% reversion of these would cut the Lab lead by 3-4 points.

Lab are still a poor 3rd in Scotland, but the cross-breaks for England show huge swings. Lab lead Con by 37/35 in the South. This would be a swing of 16-17% on 2019, and sufficient (just on uniform swing) to turn seats such as Huntingdon, Devon Central and Isle of Wight red.

[jimjam]

James what is the Lab - Tory and there net switch? 13% being just shy of 6% vote share.

[Old Southendian]

Jan 14, 2022 9:57:09 GMT guymonde said:

I thought it was pretty striking how many hands went up when asked about who was an ex-Tory voter. there were audible gasps. Of course, us old cynics know that many will drift back, but as you say, the anger was palpable.
The egregious Oakeshott didn't really surprise me "you've got a lot of nerve, to say you are my friend, when I was down, you just stood there grinning. Yes, you've got a lotta nerve, to say you have a helping hand to lend, you just want to be on the side that's winning"

Funny, I was also thinking along those lines a lot recently.  I love the line "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at, You have no faith to lose, and ya know it".

[jimjam]

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

⁦@redfieldwilton⁩







Redfield and Wilton

When it comes to managing the economy, 31% of Britons most trust the Conservative Party and 30% most trust the Labour Party—the greatest proportion to trust Labour in this regard that we have recorded since the 2019 GE. pic.twitter.com/9W7cJObQrw

14/01/2022, 11:00


JJ     - Superficially good for Labour but when they are 10% ish ahead in VI on Economic competence they are more or less only level pegging.

Way ahead on Starmer v Johnson of course but that will be irrelevant sooner or later.

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2022 8:35:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jan 14, 2022 8:19:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Hi Danny
However, I have to mention that you yourself just made a covid post.

Yes on the Covid thread - I don't think reminding posters that there is a separate thread for covid counts as posting about covid, and commenting on partygate is different to discussions about SA/herd immunity etc. Such post distract us from the primary function of this thread which is to lampoon our ridiculous PM till he see the light and resigns. ☮ Perhaps you and Alex should seek satisfaction in a duel? Posts at dawn?

It doesn’t seem fair that you guys don’t have your own thread, and in the interests of the non-partisan thing, l just took a few moments to create a thread for if you have issues with the Government or whichever party ails you. You are welcome. 

Picking up on that kind thought of yours, I have arranged for a brand new thread named after your good self. It will be called “Carfrew hosts” and will be based on Monty Python’s Argument Clinic.”

You are very welcome!

Paul

[domjg]

Jan 14, 2022 11:09:38 GMT James E said:

Tables for YouGov here:

docs.cdn.yougov.com/48dfh8v55q/TheTimes_VI_220113_W.pdf

Highest yet Con>Lab switching of 13% of those who give a voting intention (or 9% of total Con2019 sample)

Huge amounts of 'Don't Know' from Con2019 voters: 25% compared to 11% Lab. A 50% reversion of these would cut the Lab lead by 3-4 points.

Lab are still a poor 3rd in Scotland, but the cross-breaks for England show huge swings. Lab lead Con by 37/35 in the South. This would be a swing of 16-17% on 2019, and sufficient (just on uniform swing) to turn seats such as Huntingdon, Devon Central and Isle of Wight red.

@james E "Lab lead Con by 37/35 in the South" that's good news but I'd hoped the LDs would be a bit higher at the expense of Con in the South. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 14, 2022 10:31:48 GMT nickp said:

Jan 14, 2022 9:59:24 GMT colin said:

" moral expectations" -whatever that means-not so sure.

Integrity? Keeping your word? Doing or at least making some attempt to do, what you promise to do?

There was a time when integrity and trust were the pre-requisites of following a leader. But now you don't even know what "moral expectations" are?

Trouble is, if you’re going to do that, then there are the issues with Blair, and the war etc., Clegg, even Starmer, who appears to be of the left and then when elected seems rather less sympathetic. And how often does one need to keep saying it, about Johnson?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 14, 2022 11:15:30 GMT @crofty said:

Jan 14, 2022 8:35:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

It doesn’t seem fair that you guys don’t have your own thread, and in the interests of the non-partisan thing, l just took a few moments to create a thread for if you have issues with the Government or whichever party ails you. You are welcome. 

Picking up on that kind thought of yours, I have arranged for a brand new thread named after your good self. It will be called “Carfrew hosts” and will be based on Monty Python’s Argument Clinic.”

You are very welcome!

Paul

Picking up on that kind thought of yours, thought we might start a kindred spirit thread, for those who can’t find them in the real world. Maybe even a party! You’re welcome etc.

[domjg]

Jan 14, 2022 11:14:16 GMT jimjam said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

⁦@redfieldwilton⁩







Redfield and Wilton

When it comes to managing the economy, 31% of Britons most trust the Conservative Party and 30% most trust the Labour Party—the greatest proportion to trust Labour in this regard that we have recorded since the 2019 GE. pic.twitter.com/9W7cJObQrw

14/01/2022, 11:00


JJ     - Superficially good for Labour but when they are 10% ish ahead in VI on Economic competence they are more or less only level pegging.

Way ahead on Starmer v Johnson of course but that will be irrelevant sooner or later.

@jimjam It's an abiding mystery to me that whatever the Tories do to damage the economy they still always come out as most trusted on the economy. Did the fact that 2008 happened when Labour were in power do that much long term damage on this perception?

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2022 8:41:01 GMT colin said:

I'm surprised you contemplate resignation in any event-it doesn't fit with my perception of him.

So I'm anticipating further contrition after the report ,but still leaving -as he currently has-the impression that he thinks this is all a bit unfair. And Boris sets out to get those Polls back in shape by sheer force of personality. That would be some feat !

Maybe 15% Lab lead will produce those letters. 20% would surely be a wake up call ?

I completely agree Johnson has little loyalty to anything but his own ego. Surely a surprise to nobody who has left the house in the last decade. However, the position of the sacrificial rear-guards brought out to defend the current farce isn't a pleasant one. So, how long will the Tory party or the ministers as individuals put up with this? How long can they emotionally? They've looked stretched and desperate already. You'd have to be a heartless B* not to feel something for Simon Hart on QT last night. Everyone knew why he was there and how pointless his defence was. That would have been a bad panel for the minster on any night and Oakeshott, his only likely ally on most subjects, was twisting the knife more than anyone. He was clearly accorded respect for his loyalty and bravery but I got the impression the other panellists thought it was degrading for him, and not only was he better man than this, but he didn't deserve to be asked to do it. Even Nadhim Zahawi, consummate stonewall specialist that he is, was struggling on Newcast last night and Tobias Elwood wasn't toeing the line at all. Adam Fleming and Chris Mason mocked Zahawi's presence on the show itself as an obvious sign of the government's desperation and I can't see how anyone will be persuaded by these interviews that isn't already wilfully blind. Ultimately, it probably will come down to polling or perhaps the local elections but the knives must be out soon or the fabled Tory ruthlessness will be rather exposed as nonsense.

[domjg]

Jan 14, 2022 11:18:31 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jan 14, 2022 10:31:48 GMT nickp said:

Integrity? Keeping your word? Doing or at least making some attempt to do, what you promise to do?

There was a time when integrity and trust were the pre-requisites of following a leader. But now you don't even know what "moral expectations" are?

Trouble is, if you’re going to do that, then there are the issues with Blair, and the war etc., Clegg, even Starmer, who appears to be of the left and then when elected seems rather less sympathetic. And how often does one need to keep saying it? 

c-a-r-f-r-e-w Starmer? Come on don't be silly. Blair, he may have been misguided but at least believed he was doing good. Clegg, fair point but still none of them come close to the amoral narcissism of Johnson. 

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2022 11:18:31 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jan 14, 2022 10:31:48 GMT nickp said:

Integrity? Keeping your word? Doing or at least making some attempt to do, what you promise to do?

There was a time when integrity and trust were the pre-requisites of following a leader. But now you don't even know what "moral expectations" are?

Trouble is, if you’re going to do that, then there are the issues with Blair, and the war etc., Clegg, even Starmer, who appears to be of the left and then when elected seems rather less sympathetic. And how often does one need to keep saying it? 

Yeah - but they weren't clearly a pack of liars before we collectively voted them in. Surely nobody can claim they didn't know about Johnson?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 14, 2022 8:36:52 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Jan 14, 2022 8:19:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Hi Danny
However, I have to mention that you yourself just made a covid post.

Yes on the Covid thread - I don't think reminding posters that there is a separate thread for covid counts as posting about covid, and commenting on partygate is different to discussions about SA/herd immunity etc. Such post distract us from the primary function of this thread which is to lampoon our ridiculous PM till he see the light and resigns. ☮ Perhaps you and Alex should seek satisfaction in a duel? Posts at dawn?

I agree with La Citron Danny, your constant covid posts get ignored by all except Alec.

not true, and both Danny and Alec unearth some rather useful stuff from a health point of view. You do seem very concerned about money, whether it’s fridges, house prices, your son’s work etc., but there is a lot of health stuff people don’t know (and it can be surprising how useful fridges can be for that). 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 14, 2022 11:24:31 GMT nickp said:

Jan 14, 2022 11:18:31 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Trouble is, if you’re going to do that, then there are the issues with Blair, and the war etc., Clegg, even Starmer, who appears to be of the left and then when elected seems rather less sympathetic. And how often does one need to keep saying it? 

Yeah - but they weren't clearly a pack of liars before we collectively voted them in. Surely nobody can claim they didn't know about Johnson?

aha, well, I kinda tend to assume the worst Nick

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 14, 2022 11:24:10 GMT domjg said:

Jan 14, 2022 11:18:31 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Trouble is, if you’re going to do that, then there are the issues with Blair, and the war etc., Clegg, even Starmer, who appears to be of the left and then when elected seems rather less sympathetic. And how often does one need to keep saying it? 

c-a-r-f-r-e-w Starmer? Come on don't be silly. Blair, he may have been misguided but at least believed he was doing good. Clegg, fair point but still none of them come close to the amoral narcissism of Johnson. 

I’m not sure the Iraqis who died would necessarily buy that.

and Starmer hasn’t been in power yet. But a lot of people could suffer for a continuation of policies where they pretend to be left wing to get elected but then tack right.

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2022 11:27:46 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jan 14, 2022 11:24:31 GMT nickp said:

Yeah - but they weren't clearly a pack of liars before we collectively voted them in. Surely nobody can claim they didn't know about Johnson?

aha, well, I kinda tend to assume the worst Nick

Probably safest.

[jimjam]

James -

Thanks for extracting - your input on polls is appreciated.

Forgive my pedantry but the swing is half the movement so 2.6% and as mentioned in the past my view is that Labour need this at around 3% (or 6% closing) to get near to vote share parity with differential turnout and demographic drift closing the rest of the gap.