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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 10, 2021 12:48:45 GMT
Westminster voting intention : LAB: 40% (+1) CON: 34% (-2) LDEM: 10% (+1) GRN: 4% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-) via @survation, 08 - 09 Dec Chgs. w/ 01 Dec Bad for Starmer. Labour should be at least 10 points ahead after the latest cock-ups. It is, but I suspect that's the 'Brexit effect' with the a lot of the voters Labour needs still clinging to their lack of trust of Labour on the issue or docking with DK or Reform.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 12:52:25 GMT
Sturgeon's press briefing today on Omicron
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 13:00:32 GMT
domjg "IMHO the EU is the most progressive expression of administration in the world today and will actually be a template for the future. In no remaining EU state is there a clear desire to leave as polling has shown. "
So you approve of the lack of democratic accountability within the ruling body? Presumably you also approve of the Chinese set up too where there is an equal lack of democratic accountability?
Barbara "In a decade you'll hardly be able to find anyone who voted for Brexit. (Bit like you can't find anyone who supported the Iraq invasion or who wept inconsolably in the streets when Diana died.) (I plead guilty to the first - and regret it - and an emphatic not guilty to the second)"
Like you and with hindsight, I regret supporting the Iraq invasion. However, I do not apologise for doing so, as on the information as presented, I would make the same decision again. Mr Johnson is not the first politician to massage the truth. As for Diana's death, it was as sad as the death of any other young person but I never understood the mass hysteria that followed.
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Post by jayblanc on Dec 10, 2021 13:01:43 GMT
You have to wonder why Labour is even competing in the seat. But then, with Labour, you always have to wonder! Iirc, as it is currently constituted, the Labour Party can't order a constituency party membership to stand down and not nominate a candidate. And Conservative safe seats will have constituency parties made up of the kind of person who would be dedicated to lost causes. Hence why a Lab-Lib electoral pact is always a sticky issue with Labour, even if the leadership wanted one they would have to either make drastic changes to party structure, or manage to get support from every constituency party they wanted to cede to the Libdems.
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Post by wb61 on Dec 10, 2021 13:08:02 GMT
Apparently unless you have balloons it's not a party it's a gathering!
Per Paul Scully Business Minister on LBC
"Look, ‘party’ suggests, and you see some of the graphics that go around with some of the coverage here, with balloons and poppers and these kind of things. It suggests that there’s big invitations going out and lots of people coming in from elsewhere and those kind of things, so I think it’s right to be proportionate until we know the detail."
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,137
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 13:08:40 GMT
You have to wonder why Labour is even competing in the seat. But then, with Labour, you always have to wonder! Iirc, as it is currently constituted, the Labour Party can't order a constituency party membership to stand down and not nominate a candidate. And Conservative safe seats will have constituency parties made up of the kind of person who would be dedicated to lost causes. Hence why a Lab-Lib electoral pact is always a sticky issue with Labour, even if the leadership wanted one they would have to either make drastic changes to party structure, or manage to get support from every constituency party they wanted to cede to the Libdems. tancred jayblanc I think standing candidates down looks controlling and presumptive to voters. You have to encourage them to vote tactically which is what the LDs have decades of experience in..
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,137
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 13:14:37 GMT
t7g4 "So the UK won't be the first country to leave the EU" The UK was always a huge outlier compared to other EU countries in terms of the popularity of EU Membership. And the data in my link above shows no state with less than 68% support for EU membership. It seems to me highly unlikely that any other country would choose to Leave as we did. Perhaps you are thinking that one or both of Poland or Hungary might be expelled - for which there is a mechanism - but note that people in both these countries do not want to leave by a huge margin. I have always believed that the UK was unique in its peculiar hatred for the EU. I believe it more than ever. British xenophobia is very unusual by European standards. tancred I've thought about this a lot and in my opinion it comes down to a particularly English (not British) master and slave mentality. Ie either we're dominant or we're servile and there's nothing in between. The EU is a model of messy compromise and often conflicting interests that are thrashed out by working together. It's a trait I think we share with Russia and that's not a complement. It's an undeveloped mentality born of assumed exceptionalism.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 13:17:06 GMT
Good afternoon all from a sunny with a few clouds in the sky and moderate breeze PSRL.
I guess Johnson and his government are learning the truism that you should never insult the electorate - in this case both their intelligence (trying to claim it wasn't a party) and sense of decency. Never looks good when what you are actually doing in private contradicts your public position and instruction to the electorate.
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 13:22:05 GMT
Iirc, as it is currently constituted, the Labour Party can't order a constituency party membership to stand down and not nominate a candidate. And Conservative safe seats will have constituency parties made up of the kind of person who would be dedicated to lost causes. Hence why a Lab-Lib electoral pact is always a sticky issue with Labour, even if the leadership wanted one they would have to either make drastic changes to party structure, or manage to get support from every constituency party they wanted to cede to the Libdems. tancred jayblanc I think standing candidates down looks controlling and presumptive to voters. You have to encourage them to vote tactically which is what the LDs have decades of experience in.. The recent coalition which was ironically the most stable period will have left a sore taste in the month for many people who may choose to support the Liberal Democrats for tactical reasons. What's there to stop the Lib Dems going back into a coalition in the future under a Sunak type leader with the Conservatives and the natural regret the voters who voted tactical will feel. There is still a 400,000 labour membership (was 201,293 on 6 May 2015) which may affect the Liberal Democrat voter who is more economically conservative but socially liberal So many Liberal Democrats in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats will be fearful that Labour could easily oust Starmer and replace them with a Rebecca Long-Bailey type of figure who is a strong believer of Corbyn economics.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:22:53 GMT
domjg "IMHO the EU is the most progressive expression of administration in the world today and will actually be a template for the future. In no remaining EU state is there a clear desire to leave as polling has shown. " So you approve of the lack of democratic accountability within the ruling body? Presumably you also approve of the Chinese set up too where there is an equal lack of democratic accountability? Barbara "In a decade you'll hardly be able to find anyone who voted for Brexit. (Bit like you can't find anyone who supported the Iraq invasion or who wept inconsolably in the streets when Diana died.) (I plead guilty to the first - and regret it - and an emphatic not guilty to the second)" Like you and with hindsight, I regret supporting the Iraq invasion. However, I do not apologise for doing so, as on the information as presented, I would make the same decision again. Mr Johnson is not the first politician to massage the truth. As for Diana's death, it was as sad as the death of any other young person but I never understood the mass hysteria that followed. Democratic accountability? Yes, things can be improved, but at least the EU has a representative election, unlike the UK's gerrymandered first past the post system.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 10, 2021 13:25:39 GMT
I have always believed that the UK was unique in its peculiar hatred for the EU. I believe it more than ever. British xenophobia is very unusual by European standards. tancred I've thought about this a lot and in my opinion it comes down to a particularly English (not British) master and slave mentality. Ie either we're dominant or we're servile and there's nothing in between. The EU is a model of messy compromise and often conflicting interests that are thrashed out by working together. It's a trait I think we share with Russia and that's not a complement. It's an undeveloped mentality born of assumed exceptionalism. I think the attitude was born of WW2. We weren't invaded and we were on the winning side. Being invaded and/or losing meant massive destruction as your country/locality was fought over, bringing a resolve not to let it happen again and a willingness to work co-operatively to that end. We didn't have the same experience, so we don't fully share that commitment to engage so comprehensively and that, in turn, leads to a sense that we can go it alone. Trouble is we don't understand, or want to understand that the world has moved on substantially in the last 75 years.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:25:59 GMT
You have to wonder why Labour is even competing in the seat. But then, with Labour, you always have to wonder! Iirc, as it is currently constituted, the Labour Party can't order a constituency party membership to stand down and not nominate a candidate. And Conservative safe seats will have constituency parties made up of the kind of person who would be dedicated to lost causes. Hence why a Lab-Lib electoral pact is always a sticky issue with Labour, even if the leadership wanted one they would have to either make drastic changes to party structure, or manage to get support from every constituency party they wanted to cede to the Libdems. This is an important issue. I am aware that the Labour constitution prevents tactical stand-downs, but this is a 'cut off your nose to spite your face' approach that is not adapted to modern 21st century politics. I certainly believe that Labour need to rethink this aspect of their constitution.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,715
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 13:27:18 GMT
So far we've had: "There was no party" "Well, I was assured by unnamed sources that there was no party" then "It's not a party if there weren't any balloons" and then "How could Johnson be expected to know about the party when no.10 is so big?" (the party that 'didn't happen' of course)
It must be hard to vote Tory right now and keep any self-respect.
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 13:27:45 GMT
Tancred
You appear to be confusing the EU, a political construct whose controlling body is not democratically elected, with Europe, a geographical region of independent nations, whose governments are democratically elected. As a result your accusation of xenophobia against those who do not believe in the political construct, is as misplaced as is the accusation of transphobia, against anyone who believes that ones sex is determined by the chromosomes assigned at birth, no matter how much an individual might pretend otherwise. For the record, I have no issue with people presenting as they want, my problem is with people who deny scientific fact as a back door route into female only spaces and are aggressive with it.
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Post by jayblanc on Dec 10, 2021 13:30:53 GMT
Iirc, as it is currently constituted, the Labour Party can't order a constituency party membership to stand down and not nominate a candidate. And Conservative safe seats will have constituency parties made up of the kind of person who would be dedicated to lost causes. Hence why a Lab-Lib electoral pact is always a sticky issue with Labour, even if the leadership wanted one they would have to either make drastic changes to party structure, or manage to get support from every constituency party they wanted to cede to the Libdems. tancred jayblanc I think standing candidates down looks controlling and presumptive to voters. You have to encourage them to vote tactically which is what the LDs have decades of experience in.. In countries with more experience of 'closely balanced parliaments' that still have first past the post allocations, electoral alliances are much more common place and an accepted way of doing things. In some ways, it is a much better way for the electorate to know what they'll get because coalitions are pre-announced. The British are an unusual exception in rarely opting for Electoral Alliances to make up for First Past The Post's concordancy deficit.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 13:32:46 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory.
It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date.
There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:36:09 GMT
I have always believed that the UK was unique in its peculiar hatred for the EU. I believe it more than ever. British xenophobia is very unusual by European standards. tancred I've thought about this a lot and in my opinion it comes down to a particularly English (not British) master and slave mentality. Ie either we're dominant or we're servile and there's nothing in between. The EU is a model of messy compromise and often conflicting interests that are thrashed out by working together. It's a trait I think we share with Russia and that's not a complement. It's an undeveloped mentality born of assumed exceptionalism. Thanks for your analysis. I tend to agree with this view - it harks back to the days when Britain (England) had an empire and was an effective superpower (i.e. before the 1950s). I also think that most people in the UK did not ever understand what the EU was about, which is to strengthen European identity and solidarity between nations - this was important as only a few years before it was set up were all at each other's throats. Britain never accepted this - just saw the whole thing as a trading block, which it was, but not the only thing by any means. And Britain wanted to skirt on the edges of Europe while engaging with the Commonwealth and the USA at the same time, which isn't really feasible if you are in the EU.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:40:13 GMT
Tancred You appear to be confusing the EU, a political construct whose controlling body is not democratically elected, with Europe, a geographical region of independent nations, whose governments are democratically elected. As a result your accusation of xenophobia against those who do not believe in the political construct, is as misplaced as is the accusation of transphobia, against anyone who believes that ones sex is determined by the chromosomes assigned at birth, no matter how much an individual might pretend otherwise. For the record, I have no issue with people presenting as they want, my problem is with people who deny scientific fact as a back door route into female only spaces and are aggressive with it. The EU has a democratically elected parliament - I don't wish to revisit the whole discussion about what the EU is and isn't as this has been done to death already. The xenophobia is one of the motivators of Brexit, though I accept not the only one. However, it's clear that many of those who voted for Brexit did so because of unhappiness about having Europeans being able to work in the UK - this appears to be mainly a concern for the working class as the middle class has never been bothered by job competition, given the large number of Asian doctors and IT consultants. I'm confused by your transphobia analogy.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:48:55 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory. It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date. There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr. Absolutely. If people like Hammond, Hunt and Grieve get back on the front bench there might be a hope of a constructive discussion but otherwise no chance.
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Post by jayblanc on Dec 10, 2021 13:50:50 GMT
tancred I've thought about this a lot and in my opinion it comes down to a particularly English (not British) master and slave mentality. Ie either we're dominant or we're servile and there's nothing in between. The EU is a model of messy compromise and often conflicting interests that are thrashed out by working together. It's a trait I think we share with Russia and that's not a complement. It's an undeveloped mentality born of assumed exceptionalism. Thanks for your analysis. I tend to agree with this view - it harks back to the days when Britain (England) had an empire and was an effective superpower (i.e. before the 1950s). I also think that most people in the UK did not ever understand what the EU was about, which is to strengthen European identity and solidarity between nations - this was important as only a few years before it was set up were all at each other's throats. Britain never accepted this - just saw the whole thing as a trading block, which it was, but not the only thing by any means. And Britain wanted to skirt on the edges of Europe while engaging with the Commonwealth and the USA at the same time, which isn't really feasible if you are in the EU. There was also a certain amount of thinking in the 1950s that 'The Commonwealth' was still 'ours' and would be at the beck and call of British Government, British Military and British Industry, which were not disillusioned until after the Suez Crisis. There is a certain rump of sentiment that still thinks the Commonwealth should serve the UK's interests first, and there many dubious assertions made that of course we could just replace our EU partners and organisations with Commonwealth ones... In many cases, there not being any Commonwealth replacement for the bodies the UK has now left.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 13:51:04 GMT
Discussion along the lines of where Labour (or any other party) should or should not be in the Westminster VI polls, needs to be made in the context of the legacy of the Brexit issue, the un-winding on the bounce the govt got from Covid vac program, and the constitutional question in Scotland. All three tend to deflate any lead Labour can have over the Tories. How deep the rift Brexit has made between Labour and some voters may change over the next couple of years, but it still seems to be in play. The goodwill from the vac campaign seems now to have gone. I cant find any data to support the assumption that the ABT vote is strong enough (or as big a factor as independence) in order for general rise in Labour's VI in the UK for Westminster elections would persuade sufficient voters to switch from SNP to Lab. Also, if I recall while in 2017/19 there was some evidence that elements of Lab vote that were ABSNP and prepared to vote Tory, it wasn't reciprocated by Tory voters (whether that was the Corbyn effect or not I don't know).
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 13:52:35 GMT
tancred I've thought about this a lot and in my opinion it comes down to a particularly English (not British) master and slave mentality. Ie either we're dominant or we're servile and there's nothing in between. The EU is a model of messy compromise and often conflicting interests that are thrashed out by working together. It's a trait I think we share with Russia and that's not a complement. It's an undeveloped mentality born of assumed exceptionalism. I think the attitude was born of WW2. We weren't invaded and we were on the winning side. Being invaded and/or losing meant massive destruction as your country/locality was fought over, bringing a resolve not to let it happen again and a willingness to work co-operatively to that end. We didn't have the same experience, so we don't fully share that commitment to engage so comprehensively and that, in turn, leads to a sense that we can go it alone. Trouble is we don't understand, or want to understand that the world has moved on substantially in the last 75 years. Yes, and this is also tied in with the imperial delusion. France used to be like this as well, but since De Gaulle's death has moved more towards European integration in both thought and action. Britain is still much more like the France of the 1960s.
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 13:58:44 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory. It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date. There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr. My point is where Lib Dems do well is usually in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats which out of fear of a return to Corbynista economics may not push their support when it really matters i.e. a UK GE. The Lib Dems may influence a future Con led gov in some way but perhaps in different circumstances. I don't think the UK will ever rejoin the EU but that is just my opinion.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:00:18 GMT
Thanks for your analysis. I tend to agree with this view - it harks back to the days when Britain (England) had an empire and was an effective superpower (i.e. before the 1950s). I also think that most people in the UK did not ever understand what the EU was about, which is to strengthen European identity and solidarity between nations - this was important as only a few years before it was set up were all at each other's throats. Britain never accepted this - just saw the whole thing as a trading block, which it was, but not the only thing by any means. And Britain wanted to skirt on the edges of Europe while engaging with the Commonwealth and the USA at the same time, which isn't really feasible if you are in the EU. There was also a certain amount of thinking in the 1950s that 'The Commonwealth' was still 'ours' and would be at the beck and call of British Government, British Military and British Industry, which were not disillusioned until after the Suez Crisis. There is a certain rump of sentiment that still thinks the Commonwealth should serve the UK's interests first, and there many dubious assertions made that of course we could just replace our EU partners and organisations with Commonwealth ones... In many cases, there not being any Commonwealth replacement for the bodies the UK has now left. There is a reluctance to accept that the Commonwealth is no longer the 'British' Commonwealth. Hence the sentimental drooling from many conservatives at the prospect of a CANZUK alliance. Common culture, heritage and language are strong binding agents between these nations, but it ignores the significant ethnic changes in the composition of these countries since the 1950s. Both Australia and Canada have been become very Asian in ethnic composition and the identification with Britain is not as strong as it was even only 40 years ago. They have different priorities now and it's mainly the older generation which still has that old loyalty. New Zealand is still mostly a nation of British and Irish stock but even there the attitude has changed in the last 40-50 years. The Brexiter Tory party wants to restore these old ties but doing so by severing our ties with Europe is massively counterproductive as they cannot in any way replace our former membership of the EU.
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 14:01:52 GMT
Discussion along the lines of where Labour (or any other party) should or should not be in the Westminster VI polls, needs to be made in the context of the legacy of the Brexit issue, the un-winding on the bounce the govt got from Covid vac program, and the constitutional question in Scotland. All three tend to deflate any lead Labour can have over the Tories. How deep the rift Brexit has made between Labour and some voters may change over the next couple of years, but it still seems to be in play. The goodwill from the vac campaign seems now to have gone. I cant find any data to support the assumption that the ABT vote is strong enough (or as big a factor as independence) in order for general rise in Labour's VI in the UK for Westminster elections would persuade sufficient voters to switch from SNP to Lab. Also, if I recall while in 2017/19 there was some evidence that elements of Lab vote that were ABSNP and prepared to vote Tory, it wasn't reciprocated by Tory voters (whether that was the Corbyn effect or not I don't know). I believe Labour will start making steady progress in the local elections in Scotland next year. Glasgow could be a town they may regain. I don't think the recent bin strikes will have helped the SNP there.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:03:29 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory. It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date. There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr. My point is where Lib Dems do well is usually in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats which out of fear of a return to Corbynista economics may not push their support when it really matters i.e. a UK GE. The Lib Dems may influence a future Con led gov in some way but perhaps in different circumstances. I don't think the UK will ever rejoin the EU but that is just my opinion. I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet.
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Danny
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Posts: 10,505
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Post by Danny on Dec 10, 2021 14:04:32 GMT
Todays zoe results. Unsurprisingly steady as we go. R=1.0 for England. Cases amongst over 50s trending down slghty, under 50s trending up slightly.
The exception is Wales at R=1.1. As the interviewers asked this morning on R4 to someone from the welsh government, 'given you have tougher restrictions than England, how come you also have worse case numbers?'
Its certainly true there is now a correlation between number of people vaccinated and number of cases. There are obviously many more vaccinaed people this year than last, while this outbreak has created many more cases than did kent.
Of course the end point of this epidemic will be many cases, few deaths. So many cases is halfway there. Lets look forward to omicron taking over in the UK and severe cases falling even further.
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 14:08:29 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory. It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date. There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr. Steve I know that you can be prone to some amusing hyperbole on occasions but your description of Rishi Sunak is a tad wide of the mark, don't you think? A rabid (mad as in lunatic) brexitarian (voted according to concience) delusionist (aka Walter Mitty) far right (aka Tommy Robinson) Tory (guilty as charged M'lud). In fact he is so right wing (not), that over the last 2 years he has devised more generous support schemes for businesses and individuals than almost any other country in the world. I'm not sure that any other Chancellor could have been as supportive. What it boils down to I think is that you don't like the fact he's quite wealthy? Terrible thing, envy. Have a chat with Peter Mandelson.😉
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,137
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 14:09:16 GMT
There was also a certain amount of thinking in the 1950s that 'The Commonwealth' was still 'ours' and would be at the beck and call of British Government, British Military and British Industry, which were not disillusioned until after the Suez Crisis. There is a certain rump of sentiment that still thinks the Commonwealth should serve the UK's interests first, and there many dubious assertions made that of course we could just replace our EU partners and organisations with Commonwealth ones... In many cases, there not being any Commonwealth replacement for the bodies the UK has now left. There is a reluctance to accept that the Commonwealth is no longer the 'British' Commonwealth. Hence the sentimental drooling from many conservatives at the prospect of a CANZUK alliance. Common culture, heritage and language are strong binding agents between these nations, but it ignores the significant ethnic changes in the composition of these countries since the 1950s. Both Australia and Canada have been become very Asian in ethnic composition and the identification with Britain is not as strong as it was even only 40 years ago. They have different priorities now and it's mainly the older generation which still has that old loyalty. New Zealand is still mostly a nation of British and Irish stock but even there the attitude has changed in the last 40-50 years. The Brexiter Tory party wants to restore these old ties but doing so by severing our ties with Europe is massively counterproductive as they cannot in any way replace our former membership of the EU. tancred jayblanc Will be interesting to see what happens once Liz is no longer with us. A rash of announcements to become republics is my guess..
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 10, 2021 14:09:36 GMT
Yes, and this is also tied in with the imperial delusion. France used to be like this as well, but since De Gaulle's death has moved more towards European integration in both thought and action. Britain is still much more like the France of the 1960s. Surely the point of brexit was a return to the 60s, with industrial unrest, failing companies and monstrous national debt. I' m surprsed they havnt yet closed down the mobile phones and TV channels as we will only be allowed 2. Having far fewer private cars seems to be coming on.
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