|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 14:10:18 GMT
My point is where Lib Dems do well is usually in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats which out of fear of a return to Corbynista economics may not push their support when it really matters i.e. a UK GE. The Lib Dems may influence a future Con led gov in some way but perhaps in different circumstances. I don't think the UK will ever rejoin the EU but that is just my opinion. I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet. This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,457
|
Post by Danny on Dec 10, 2021 14:13:32 GMT
A rash of announcements to become republics is my guess.. I still wonder what an independant Scotland plans to do? Become a republic, retain the house of windsor or revert to the dispossessed Stewart line. I gather Franz Duke of Bavaria is the current claimant to the stewart scottish throne whose line was dispossessed by the English. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,136
|
Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 14:20:34 GMT
I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet. This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. I mourn the loss of my EU citizenship and feel it was snatched from me without consent but I'm a realist and if in the future we settle for being 'effectively' in the single market and custom's union including freedom of movement even if this is arranged unilaterally with individual states then I could accept that. The most important thing is that my child now has Irish citizenship through her mother. If I thought she was starting out without the same rights I had in my youth I'd be spiting blood. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:23:33 GMT
Yes, and this is also tied in with the imperial delusion. France used to be like this as well, but since De Gaulle's death has moved more towards European integration in both thought and action. Britain is still much more like the France of the 1960s. Surely the point of brexit was a return to the 60s, with industrial unrest, failing companies and monstrous national debt. I' m surprsed they havnt yet closed down the mobile phones and TV channels as we will only be allowed 2. Having far fewer private cars seems to be coming on. For the Brexiters this is all worth it. This is their mentality - the pain is worthwhile. They would want to bring back shillings and imperial measurements as well. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 14:26:29 GMT
t7 Sunak isn't a moderate he's a rabid brexitanian delusionist and far right Tory. It remains liberal democrat party policy to rejoin the European union at a future date. There is zero chance of party support for another coalition with the Tories unless the Tories have both abandoned Brexit , certainly in its current form and pass legislation to have future Westminster elects conducted by pr. My point is where Lib Dems do well is usually in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats which out of fear of a return to Corbynista economics may not push their support when it really matters i.e. a UK GE. The Lib Dems may influence a future Con led gov in some way but perhaps in different circumstances. I don't think the UK will ever rejoin the EU but that is just my opinion. hi t7g4 If you look at most of the seats in the Home Counties, Labour tend to come second - scroll down to the bottom of the page in the link below. www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#98891Its often quite arbitrary which opposition party emerges as the rival to the govt, with the respective parties making decisions on how hard to fight weighing up the likely pay back of wining against the cost in terms allocating resources. Looks like in Shropshire the LDs took an early punt, invested resource and are now potentially reaping the rewards. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:28:40 GMT
I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet. This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. The significance of the LibDems is that they are the only political party that still believes in the EU as an institution. The problem for the LibDems is the usual one: the electoral system. I keep hoping that Labour would be grown-up enough to endorse electoral reform but I keep being disappointed. This is why the best result in the next general election would be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party - this would open the door to possibilities. |
|
|
|
Post by js on Dec 10, 2021 14:29:20 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,682
|
Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 14:29:26 GMT
Tancred
Grieve like fellow reasonable Tory Sarah Wollaston are no longer Tories or MP's which might make it a tad unlikely.
But I agree with your sentiments.
|
|
|
|
Post by jayblanc on Dec 10, 2021 14:31:14 GMT
My point is where Lib Dems do well is usually in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats which out of fear of a return to Corbynista economics may not push their support when it really matters i.e. a UK GE. The Lib Dems may influence a future Con led gov in some way but perhaps in different circumstances. I don't think the UK will ever rejoin the EU but that is just my opinion. I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet. Important to remember that the LibDems have radically transformed several times in living memory. Going from Social Democratic/Liberal alliance, where it was only notationally center-left because it was an uneasy coalition between two really quite different view points, to the Centre Right Pragmatists/Left Wing Woolies of the 90s that saw a manifesto calling for explicitly increasing taxes, then switching focus on Electoral Reform as the unifying consensus that kept the party together. For a very long time this was a strange coalition of moderate lower-c conservatives and people further left than the then Labour party leadership. This ended up being destroyed when 'being in government' was put ahead of the wishes of the Party membership, and directives from the party conference just outright ignored. Leading to a defeat of the LibDem's principle unifying purpose, when the electoral reform referendum was allowed to be diluted and run-down by the Conservatives. Which led to the exodus of the woolies, and the LibDems shrinking down to their centre-right rump, which became a pro-europe centre-right rump. It's quite possible they will change again. |
|
|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 14:33:16 GMT
This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. I mourn the loss of my EU citizenship and feel it was snatched from me without consent but I'm a realist and if in the future we settle for being 'effectively' in the single market and custom's union including freedom of movement even if this is arranged unilaterally with individual states then I could accept that. The most important thing is that my child now has Irish citizenship through her mother. If I thought she was starting out without the same rights I had in my youth I'd be spiting blood. Freedom of movement should be a basic human right globally and not just within a continent or certain states within a continent. This right was taken away from many Commonwealth countries who fought side by side with the UK roughly at the time the UK joined the then EC. We are all allowed to stay in the EU for at least 3 months of the year. We can still study in the EU. I think living through the last 2 years; just being able to fly outside the UK to anywhere would be ideal. This will become more difficult in the future because of viruses and environmental issues as our carbon footprint will need to be heavily reduced in the future. This will also mean we will probably move towards a post-growth society. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:36:15 GMT
This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. I mourn the loss of my EU citizenship and feel it was snatched from me without consent but I'm a realist and if in the future we settle for being 'effectively' in the single market and custom's union including freedom of movement even if this is arranged unilaterally with individual states then I could accept that. The most important thing is that my child now has Irish citizenship through her mother. If I thought she was starting out without the same rights I had in my youth I'd be spiting blood. This all sounds like a mess. I don't see these any likelihood of these arrangements as replacing our former EU membership by a country mile. The EU always acts as a single organisation, so we will not be able to make individual treaties with EU member nations, and that includes freedom of labour movement. It has to be done at the EU level. I believe that we will eventually rejoin the single market, though full membership will take time. Joining the customs union would be pointless without joining the EU completely as that would prevent us from utilising the new trade global deals. Re-joining the single market makes much more sense. I remember when the non-deranged type of Brexiters wanted to leave the EU while remaining in the single market - all that seems to have gone by the wayside. |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Dec 10, 2021 14:39:46 GMT
tancred jayblanc I think standing candidates down looks controlling and presumptive to voters. You have to encourage them to vote tactically which is what the LDs have decades of experience in.. There is still a 400,000 labour membership (was 201,293 on 6 May 2015) which may affect the Liberal Democrat voter who is more economically conservative but socially liberal So many Liberal Democrats in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats will be fearful that Labour could easily oust Starmer and replace them with a Rebecca Long-Bailey type of figure who is a strong believer of Corbyn economics. Which happened in 1981, when the day after the moderate Andrew McIntosh won the GLC election for Labour, he was defeated by Ken Livingstone in a leadership contest and the entire left caucus slate elected by the GLC Labour Group. This led to Maggie Thatcher abolishing the GLC in 1986. While Foot would have lost the 1983 General Election anyway, the scale of his defeat was probably enhanced by the actions of the GLC under Livingstone, who was a convenient hate figure for the media (although I took the view that anyone who loved newts and hated Margaret Thatcher couldn't be all bad; and he did at least introduce the Fares Fair policy). |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:44:22 GMT
t7g4 I mourn the loss of my EU citizenship and feel it was snatched from me without consent but I'm a realist and if in the future we settle for being 'effectively' in the single market and custom's union including freedom of movement even if this is arranged unilaterally with individual states then I could accept that. The most important thing is that my child now has Irish citizenship through her mother. If I thought she was starting out without the same rights I had in my youth I'd be spiting blood. Freedom of movement should be a basic human right globally and not just within a continent or certain states within a continent. This right was taken away from many Commonwealth countries who fought side by side with the UK roughly at the time the UK joined the then EC. We are all allowed to stay in the EU for at least 3 months of the year. We can still study in the EU. I think living through the last 2 years; just being able to fly outside the UK to anywhere would be ideal. This will become more difficult in the future because of viruses and environmental issues as our carbon footprint will need to be heavily reduced in the future. This will also mean we will probably move towards a post-growth society. Erm, I think you are missing the whole point of the EU, and mentioning WW2 is completely irrelevant. The EU exists to create a European identity and bind European nations together in common solidarity - this has always been the aim since the foundation of the EEC in 1957. Britain had always been free to have its own immigration arrangements with Commonwealth countries and did exactly this - just look at the many Commonwealth immigrants you can see on any day in a typical British street! Britain had immigration acts in the post war era that restricted Commonwealth immigration and these had nothing to do with our EU membership. For example, the restrictive 1971 Immigration Act was enacted before we joined the EU! And there were other immigration laws in the 1960s. |
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Dec 10, 2021 14:47:37 GMT
So far we've had: "There was no party" "Well, I was assured by unnamed sources that there was no party" then "It's not a party if there weren't any balloons" and then "How could Johnson be expected to know about the party when no.10 is so big?" (the party that 'didn't happen' of course) It must be hard to vote Tory right now and keep any self-respect. Steve, you've forgotten that it wasn't a party it was a gathering. The paymaster general's word 3 times in the Commons yesterday. |
|
|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 14:53:42 GMT
There is still a 400,000 labour membership (was 201,293 on 6 May 2015) which may affect the Liberal Democrat voter who is more economically conservative but socially liberal So many Liberal Democrats in the Home Counties and 'Middle England' seats will be fearful that Labour could easily oust Starmer and replace them with a Rebecca Long-Bailey type of figure who is a strong believer of Corbyn economics. Which happened in 1981, when the day after the moderate Andrew McIntosh won the GLC election for Labour, he was defeated by Ken Livingstone in a leadership contest and the entire left caucus slate elected by the GLC Labour Group. This led to Maggie Thatcher abolishing the GLC in 1986. While Foot would have lost the 1983 General Election anyway, the scale of his defeat was probably enhanced by the actions of the GLC under Livingstone, who was a convenient hate figure for the media (although I took the view that anyone who loved newts and hated Margaret Thatcher couldn't be all bad; and he did at least introduce the Fares Fair policy). Which is why I don't think the Liberal Democrats will hit the heights of the late 90s and noughties. Now we know politics was different then. In 2010, the Lib Dems were doing well in student seats because of their opposition to tuition fees and stance to the war in Iraq but also in 'Middle England' seats because voters weren't fearful of Lib Dems going into a coalition or informal agreement with the Labour party then, as the Labour party had Blair/Brown as their leaders (both believers in the free-market). Post 2015 we got the rise of Corbyn. 'Vote Lib Dems' and get a Corbynista in government will still put fear and prohibit of Lib Dems winning seats in vast numbers in 'Middle England'. The student vote is gone and is firmly behind Labour and this is unlikely to change. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 14:54:20 GMT
I can assure you that the LibDems will never join a conservative government while Brexiters lead it. I disagree with you about rejoining the EU - younger people are far more pro-EU than the over 50s, and over time this will cause a significant change in opinion, though it will take some years yet. Important to remember that the LibDems have radically transformed several times in living memory. Going from Social Democratic/Liberal alliance, where it was only notationally center-left because it was an uneasy coalition between two really quite different view points, to the Centre Right Pragmatists/Left Wing Woolies of the 90s that saw a manifesto calling for explicitly increasing taxes, then switching focus on Electoral Reform as the unifying consensus that kept the party together. For a very long time this was a strange coalition of moderate lower-c conservatives and people further left than the then Labour party leadership. This ended up being destroyed when 'being in government' was put ahead of the wishes of the Party membership, and directives from the party conference just outright ignored. Leading to a defeat of the LibDem's principle unifying purpose, when the electoral reform referendum was allowed to be diluted and run-down by the Conservatives. Which led to the exodus of the woolies, and the LibDems shrinking down to their centre-right rump, which became a pro-europe centre-right rump. It's quite possible they will change again. In the Ashdown and Kennedy years the LibDems were the true party of the left. Labour wrestled with itself and under Blair became moderate conservatives of the MacMillan/Heath flavour - this helped them to grab Tory votes and win several elections. Since the day Clegg decided to betray the leftist part of the LibDems this element has migrated to the Greens and Labour in search of a home and also many right wing LibDems then moved to the Tories because they realised.....that they were really Tories!  |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,682
|
Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 15:06:51 GMT
From the Guardian
Ferguson added that the figure 10,000 admissions per day could be reached “sometime in January” but noted the impact on deaths was less clear. He also added the caveat that the projection was based on assumptions around the variant’s ability to evade existing protection, and the premise that Omicron was similar to Delta in terms of the severity of disease it causes. "
Which given all available data Showsit isn't South African data suggests it only causes a fraction of the severe cases of previous variants makes the whole article primarily alarmist click bait.
Given Prof Ferguson's thirty+ year career of massive exaggeration , but with such wide parameters that he could claim 2000%+ exaggerations as within margin of error it might be appropriate if media stopped going to him as their default merchant of gloom.
|
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Dec 10, 2021 15:06:54 GMT
John Crace has rechristened the Downing Street Press Briefing Room the "lying room" wonder if it will catch on?
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 10, 2021 15:14:51 GMT
The far-right issue is another thing altogether. British xenophobia is directed mainly against other Europeans, while in several European countries there is a backlash against mass immigration from outside Europe. So in your view there are two types of xenophobia, one which is against fellow Europeans which is bad, and one against mass immigration from outside Europe which is not so bad? Isn't that racist? i.e. its worse to be against white people than non-white? It's a complex area that needs to be thought through before you do the knee-jerk 'British is bad' thing. |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Dec 10, 2021 15:28:21 GMT
Sunak, like Gove, voted for May's deal back stop an all.
I would expect a closer relationship with the EU, at some risk of RUK picking up support, if he became PM.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,682
|
Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 15:38:38 GMT
Robert
Is that the same Sunak who in the same week got planning permission for a new sports complex at his grade one listed mansion and cut universal credit for hundreds of thousands by £20 per week .
The same Sunak whose brexitanian policies have cost UK science over £8 billion in research grants.
The same Sunak whose massive wealth primarily achieved by marrying into a billionaire clan protects him entirely from any disastrous consequences of his support for brexit..
You don't have to be be a card carrying member of Britain's first to be a far right brexitanian delusionist.
|
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 10, 2021 15:40:51 GMT
Sunak, like Gove, voted for May's deal back stop an all. I would expect a closer relationship with the EU, at some risk of RUK picking up support, if he became PM. That suggests that Sunak and Gove (plus others?) have only gone along with the hard Brexit in order to keep their ministerial cars. Such a lack of principle may endear them to the PM but won't impress most voters. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,457
|
Post by neilj on Dec 10, 2021 15:46:18 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by catmanjeff on Dec 10, 2021 15:54:28 GMT
mercian Magnus has won - 7.5 - 3.5. He's been unstoppable.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 16:08:17 GMT
Democratic accountability? Yes, things can be improved, but at least the EU has a representative election, Other opinions are available :- "Conclusion : In an attempt to ascertain the state of representative democracy at the European level, this chapter investigated the European Parliament by looking into the main institutional differences compared to national parliaments, and the Spitzenkanididaten procedure as a way to elect the president of the European Commission. The European Parliament has expanded its scope of responsibility enormously, obtaining significant powers regarding the EU budget, law-making, as well as control over the executive. Despite the growing importance of this institution, the elections to the European Parliament continue to suffer from the traditional second-order national election phenomenon, which is characterised by low turnout and notoriously little interest in European issues and European politicians. This is a trend which has held since the very first direct elections in 1979 and, drawing on the experience of 2014, there seems little chance the 2019 elections will be any different, as neither more salient issues (such as the migration crisis) nor the Spitzenkandidaten procedure have appeared to have any significant impact. The EP’s DNA is significantly different to that of national parliaments. Above all, the missing links between first, national parties and Europarties and second, the EU’s legislative and executive, and third, MEPs and their constituencies create a major gap between the EP and EU citizens. This gap is so wide that it prevents the EP from properly representing the European electorate. The Spitzenkandidaten system was introduced to improve the representative character of the EP, but has remained without effect as it has not increased the visibility of EP elections or created a greater electoral connection. Its lack of success further exemplifies the yawning gap between the EU and its citizens. Mechanisms such as the Spitzenkandidaten procedure, and more generally the attempt to ‘parliamentarise’ the EU (a hybrid sui generis entity), do not do justice to the sophisticated institutional structure of the EU and therefore do not make the EP a better representative of the EU electorate." EU parliamentary democracy: how representative? Sophia Russack ceps.eu May 2019 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 16:14:09 GMT
ROBERT
@"What it boils down to I think is that you don't like the fact he's quite wealthy?"
And of Asian heritage. A combination which has the average Lefty in churning inner conflict.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 16:14:37 GMT
John Crace has rechristened the Downing Street Press Briefing Room the "lying room" wonder if it will catch on? John Crace is a cheeky bu**er! |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 16:16:19 GMT
More of a fall in the Tory vote than a gain by Labour. Interesting. I also don't trust the accuracy of the vote - pretty sure that the LibDem share is higher. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 10, 2021 16:16:25 GMT
mercian Magnus has won - 7.5 - 3.5. He's been unstoppable. Thanks, I've been forgetting to follow it. More wrapped up in Ashes. I'll look at the games - thanks. That's the most decisive WC match for many years I think. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 16:19:28 GMT
8 points !!
Brady looking in his post bag?
|
|
