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Post by mercian on Dec 9, 2021 23:23:08 GMT
YouGov poll out: Con:33 (-3 since 1-2 Dec) Lab 37 (+4) LD 9 (=) Gr 7 (-2) RefUK 6 (=) SNP 5 (=) That looks as though at least some of the change is direct Con to Lab. Not good for Tories. I suppose best interpretation for them would be 2% Green-Lab, 2% Con-Lab, and 1% Con-DK. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 23:33:56 GMT
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Post by jimjam on Dec 9, 2021 23:36:25 GMT
That's 3 in a row with Lab lead of 4,6 & 4 so only one away from satisfying the rule of 4.
That 5%+ lead I predicted for Labour in the May 2022 locals to be followed by Johnson going to enable a summer contest and Conference coronation may be expedited.
Johnson will probably limp on until the new year and maybe beyond but that he will go before the next GE and probably next year would I guess be odds on now. (Trev might know to odds).
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 9, 2021 23:39:49 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 37% (+4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-2)
REFUK: 6% (-)
via
@yougov
, 08 - 09 Dec
Chgs. w/ 02 Dec
Yet another healthy lead. 7 point swing to the Labour party.
The Blue wall is crumbling. If Labour are making gains in Bracknell then the Conservatives are in real trouble.
Old Bracknell (Bracknell Forest) council by-election result:
LAB: 61.1% (+23.2)
CON: 38.9% (-9.3)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
No LDem (-13.9) as prev.
Votes cast: 710
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 9, 2021 23:42:58 GMT
Current YG average of Scots crossbreaks in last 7 polls (N=1031 : 28/10 to 9/12)
SNP 47% : SCon 27% : SLab 17% : SGP 4% : REFUK 2%
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 9, 2021 23:48:21 GMT
I'm not sure that there's a John Major figure for the Conservatives this time. And as Major discovered, once the public opinion of Sleaze has set in, you actually have to clean house or be dragged down again. I hope not! Perhaps I've misunderstood you but Major was a disaster[1], so last thing CON need is someone like that to replace Boris. Similar to Maybot he only got in by 'luck' (IMO, others might disagree). Big difference being CON removed the Maybot before her 2nd GE where as they left Major in place to be crushed in GE'97 (although Bliar was Tory Plan B and by 1997, CON certainly needed a period in the wilderness to sort out their internal issues so few tears were shed) As per turk comments on previous thread then Boris has made this CON HMG a 'cult' (or 'court') around his own persona so a new leader might well be able to ditch all (or at least enough of) the baggage on Boris (which was why I'd have preferred the timing to be late into 2022 once some of the 'base effects' on inflation, etc have passed but still enough time before GE'24). However, like Dom before him, then Boris is now more of a problem than 'help' to CON 'brand' so has to go sooner than preferred (IMO Dom had a bit more 'business' to do in removing dead wood in civil service but he was doing net 'harm' so had to go). Unclear to me that Boris actually has any agenda at all other than wanting be PM. He's done f-all for me/CON/country lately and shows very little sign of having any policies or ability to deliver them (and no, I'm not surprised by that - Boris had one job to do and has done it, hence time for someone who does detail, 'joined up policies' and can deliver) As per shevii comments on previous thread then perhaps some of cabinet will be tarred with the same brush as Boris so the new broom might have to sweep more of the current (cabinet) room clean. As per some others then I expect Boris limps on through Xmas by which time we'll probably know how many other 'big names' have been tarred (ie all the skeletons in the closet should be out and the witches can be burned at the stake to satisfy the blood lust and we move on - Boris becoming a 'Corbyn-esque' figure for 'New Model Tories v2.0' in the way Corbyn is for 'New LAB v2.0'). If it needs to be someone outside of current cabinet then a lot of the RoC/CON types on UKPR2 would be very happy to see Hunt take over (the PM we deserved in GE'19 perhaps but not the PM we needed to 'Get Brexit Done'). [1] OK he got a lot of votes in 1992 but no thanks and I'm pretty sure CON have learned the lesson of keeping a baggage laden *&@r (IMO, you may disagree) in place into a future GE. Into GE'24 then Boris would be a John Major into GE'97 figure (although not as dull of course). Boris will not lead the party into the next general election because he won't want to tarnish the general election victory he achieved in 2019. He knows his time is coming to an end. Sunak will bring Hunt back into the fold. Hunt still has a lot to offer. Liz Truss cannot be ruled out to be the next leader. |
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Post by robert on Dec 9, 2021 23:49:42 GMT
That's 3 in a row with Lab lead of 4,6 & 4 so only one away from satisfying the rule of 4. That 5%+ lead I predicted for Labour in the May 2022 locals to be followed by Johnson going to enable a summer contest and Conference coronation may be expedited. Johnson will probably limp on until the new year and maybe beyond but that he will go before the next GE and probably next year would I guess be odds on now. (Trev might know to odds). Yes, things have definitely moved. By luck or judgement, Starmer timed his reshuffle well as things have continued to unravel for the tories. It's like, where does this end? I said the other day that Boris will be out by Easter if this continues. It is doing and I'm beginning to wonder if he will make the New Year in post. Somebody famous once said that a weeks a long time in politics! |
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Post by graham on Dec 9, 2021 23:50:56 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 37% (+4) CON: 33% (-3) LDEM: 9% (-) GRN: 7% (-2) REFUK: 6% (-) via @yougov , 08 - 09 Dec Chgs. w/ 02 Dec Yet another healthy lead. 7 point swing to the Labour party. The Blue wall is crumbling. If Labour are making gains in Bracknell then the Conservatives are in real trouble. Old Bracknell (Bracknell Forest) council by-election result: LAB: 61.1% (+23.2) CON: 38.9% (-9.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. No LDem (-13.9) as prev. Votes cast: 710 Yougov implies a swing to Labour of 7.9% |
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Post by guymonde on Dec 9, 2021 23:53:00 GMT
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Post by graham on Dec 9, 2021 23:56:40 GMT
Current YG average of Scots crossbreaks in last 7 polls (N=1031 : 28/10 to 9/12) SNP 47% : SCon 27% : SLab 17% : SGP 4% : REFUK 2% That though does not take account of an extended period of apparently clear Labour leads across GB. My suspicion is - I may be wrong - that when former Labour voters in Scotland see the party well placed to oust the Tories, that many will be inclined to switch back to Labour. On the poll figures of recent days I see no reason why Labour cannot better its 2017 result in Scotland. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 10, 2021 0:03:25 GMT
Some of the info on that link didn't look too good I admit. I saw a clip when various Tories were going into No 10 for some reason, and after a few had said No Comment or similar, the newsman asked Anderson what was going on, and he said "Don't ask me mate I'm just the window-cleaner". I like someone with a sense of humour. |
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Post by eor on Dec 10, 2021 0:03:33 GMT
Current YG average of Scots crossbreaks in last 7 polls (N=1031 : 28/10 to 9/12) SNP 47% : SCon 27% : SLab 17% : SGP 4% : REFUK 2% That though does not take account of an extended period of apparently clear Labour leads across GB. My suspicion is - I may be wrong - that when former Labour voters in Scotland see the party well placed to oust the Tories, that many will be inclined to switch back to Labour. On the poll figures of recent days I see no reason why Labour cannot better its 2017 result in Scotland. Two possibilities would be that they are polling about 10 points lower than their 2017 GE performance with no evidence of any progress gained vs the SNP, and that the improvement of their seat wins in 2017 vs 2015 appears to have been more largely due to increased SCON performance vs SNP, with the increase in SLAB support bearing little correlation to the increase in the Labour vote in England and Wales. |
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Post by jib on Dec 10, 2021 0:06:45 GMT
grahamScotland is certainly a fascinating sub-set in terms of Westminster and the distortions of FPTP. I don't see SNP dominance at Holyrood being affected, but Labour remain the adversary for the SNP at Westminster.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 10, 2021 0:13:47 GMT
graham Scotland is certainly a fascinating sub-set in terms of Westminster and the distortions of FPTP. I don't see SNP dominance at Holyrood being affected, but Labour remain the adversary for the SNP at Westminster. I really dont see why I would vote lab in Scotland in preference to SNP in a westminster election. SNP MPs are likely to get much more for Scotland whatever happens. |
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Post by graham on Dec 10, 2021 0:14:35 GMT
That though does not take account of an extended period of apparently clear Labour leads across GB. My suspicion is - I may be wrong - that when former Labour voters in Scotland see the party well placed to oust the Tories, that many will be inclined to switch back to Labour. On the poll figures of recent days I see no reason why Labour cannot better its 2017 result in Scotland. Two possibilities would be that they are polling about 10 points lower than their 2017 GE performance with no evidence of any progress gained vs the SNP, and that the improvement of their seat wins in 2017 vs 2015 appears to have been more largely due to increased SCON performance vs SNP, with the increase in SLAB support bearing little correlation to the increase in the Labour vote in England and Wales. But in late April 2017 polls in Scotland recorded Labour in the 13% - 15% range - yet in early June at the GE the party polled 27.1%. Current polls give Labour 20% or so. |
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Post by eor on Dec 10, 2021 0:25:58 GMT
Two possibilities would be that they are polling about 10 points lower than their 2017 GE performance with no evidence of any progress gained vs the SNP, and that the improvement of their seat wins in 2017 vs 2015 appears to have been more largely due to increased SCON performance vs SNP, with the increase in SLAB support bearing little correlation to the increase in the Labour vote in England and Wales. But in late April 2017 polls in Scotland recorded Labour in the 13% - 15% range - yet in early June at the GE the party polled 27.1%. Current polls give Labour 20% or so. And in 2019 SLAB support stayed steady in that period, whilst in 2015 it fell. So beyond pure optimism, why is 2017 the guide here? |
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Post by graham on Dec 10, 2021 0:42:04 GMT
But in late April 2017 polls in Scotland recorded Labour in the 13% - 15% range - yet in early June at the GE the party polled 27.1%. Current polls give Labour 20% or so. And in 2019 SLAB support stayed steady in that period, whilst in 2015 it fell. So beyond pure optimism, why is 2017 the guide here? In 2017 the surge in the Labour vote mirrored what happened in GB as a whole - albeit a few days later. National polls were pointing to the serious possibility of a Hung Parliament. In 2019 there was every indication that Labour was heading for a heavy defeat - and had no real momentum in that it was clearly falling back compared with 2017. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 0:58:54 GMT
Current YG average of Scots crossbreaks in last 7 polls (N=1031 : 28/10 to 9/12) SNP 47% : SCon 27% : SLab 17% : SGP 4% : REFUK 2% That though does not take account of an extended period of apparently clear Labour leads across GB. My suspicion is - I may be wrong - that when former Labour voters in Scotland see the party well placed to oust the Tories, that many will be inclined to switch back to Labour. On the poll figures of recent days I see no reason why Labour cannot better its 2017 result in Scotland. You are perfectly entitled to have suspicions and hopes that SLab can return to a position of gaining many seats in Scotland. However, since "apparently clear Labour leads across GB" primarily concern changes in VI in England, there is no rational reason (I exclude Britishness or Scottishness, for that matter, as being a rational basis for interpreting polling) to assume that VI changes in one polity must resonate elsewhere. If there is actual evidence of a SLab resurgence, then that would be a different matter. We should all be guided by evidence rather than faith. |
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Post by eor on Dec 10, 2021 1:04:13 GMT
On next week's by-election - I'm not sure I buy the excitement. Yes it's looking entirely possible/likely that the Tories will lose the seat, but whether that leads to panic and leadership questions?
By-elections are rare altogether; by-elections that are even initially comparable (same party in government, same party challenging) are even rarer. As far as I can see there are only four other by-elections in the last 25 years where the Tories were defending from government against the Lib Dems, and one of those was in Wales.
But just on that, they were;
Witney, Oct16 - Swing to LD 19.3%, CON Hold (subsequent GE swing -10.2%, CON Hold)
Richmond Park, Dec16 - Swing to LD 21.7%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -2.5%, CON Gain)
Brecon & Radnorshire, Aug19 - Swing to LD 12.0%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -10.5%, CON Gain)
Chesham & Amersham, Jun21 - Swing to LD 25.2%, LD Gain (GE tbc)
So if they lose the seat next week, I'm not sure there's much to say it's particularly going to set nerves jangling. Likewise if they do hold on I don't think it'll be taken as any vindication of Johnson's leadership.
I think @jim jam's point about next year's locals will be rather more significant in terms of impact on leadership fortunes.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 1:17:15 GMT
Graham
I can understand why you want to concentrate on the 2017 GE when, in Scotland, SLab improved its vote share by 2.8% compared with 2015, before falling back to 5.7% below the 2015 share 2 years later, and 23.4% less than in 2010.
The actual number of SLab votes in the last 4 UK GEs were
2010 - 1,035,528 (41 seats)
2015 - 707,147 (1 seat)
2017 - 717,007 (7 seats)
2019 - 511,838 (1 seat)
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 1:31:19 GMT
Graham
It is just as likely (if not more so) that some existing SLab voters will choose to vote SNP in order to reduce the number of Tory MPs in currently Tory held constituencies and ex-SLab voters in some SNP held constituencies be unwilling to risk letting the Tories come through the middle.
None of us can know what the mood of sections of voters will be at the next UK GE, but there is currently no evidence that your target group of ABT voters will think that replacing an SNP MP with a SLab one will increase UK support for Scottish interests. Some might think that having a Labour government reliant on MPs focussed on Scotland's needs is a preferable outcome.
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Post by neilj on Dec 10, 2021 7:10:07 GMT
In addition to cut through in opinion polls also looks to be cut through in local by-elections
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Post by shevii on Dec 10, 2021 7:42:28 GMT
YouGov poll out: Con:33 (-3 since 1-2 Dec) Lab 37 (+4) LD 9 (=) Gr 7 (-2) RefUK 6 (=) SNP 5 (=) We're reaching 48 hours of polldrums :-) |
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Post by shevii on Dec 10, 2021 7:56:11 GMT
Comparing the last two yougovs on the headline figures the previous poll had matched percentages of switchers between Lab and Con- 5% of Lab going Con and 5% of Con going Lab (Lab gaining an advantage in actual numbers of voters as obviously Con had more voters in 2019). This has changed to only 2% of Lab still going to vote Con and 7% of Con voting Lab. 10% of Con 2019 saying RefUK. Surprisingly little change on Con to LD which you would have expected to be the obvious move for many so perhaps this movement could be a bit more Red Wall as they are more likely to skip LD there.
The don't knows is still the biggie though- Con is 24% up from 19%, Lab is 12% down from 17%.
The problem for Tories is that they are more at risk from REFUK than the LDs, although probably different dynamics in the Blue Wall, but red wall more important to Con I think.
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Post by alec on Dec 10, 2021 8:20:25 GMT
Economy back in trouble with some dire GDP figures for October. Almost ging backwards, but effectively stagnant. Pre covid level now pushed back deep into 2022.
Little real chance now of any meaningful leveling up before 2024, especially with Sunak retreating to the 'Treasury as Road Block' playbook.
The Brexit deal has cost us dear, freeorts do nothing for GDP, we are falling behind on investment, and the post Brexit trade strategy just damages UK businesses for precious little gain, such is the desparattion to wave a bit of paper, any bit of paper, to claim Brexit was a success.
Difficult times ahead, and no one left in the Conservative Party has any meaningful answers. The grown ups have all gone to bed.
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Post by catmanjeff on Dec 10, 2021 8:36:06 GMT
Comparing the last two yougovs on the headline figures the previous poll had matched percentages of switchers between Lab and Con- 5% of Lab going Con and 5% of Con going Lab (Lab gaining an advantage in actual numbers of voters as obviously Con had more voters in 2019). This has changed to only 2% of Lab still going to vote Con and 7% of Con voting Lab. 10% of Con 2019 saying RefUK. Surprisingly little change on Con to LD which you would have expected to be the obvious move for many so perhaps this movement could be a bit more Red Wall as they are more likely to skip LD there. The don't knows is still the biggie though- Con is 24% up from 19%, Lab is 12% down from 17%. The problem for Tories is that they are more at risk from REFUK than the LDs, although probably different dynamics in the Blue Wall, but red wall more important to Con I think. I think the big issue facing the Conservatives will be turnout, rather than switchers. As previously suggested, the 2022 locals will be interesting. These low turnout elections are more easily affected by a pincer movement of Conservative voters sitting on their hands, and ABT voters keen to inflict a bloody nose. Most people don't care much about their local elections, so voters who would hold their nose and vote Tory in a GE to ensure a Tory Government, may be happy to stay at home in May to inflict some pain to the blues. |
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Post by neilj on Dec 10, 2021 8:40:05 GMT
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 8:40:14 GMT
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Post by neilj on Dec 10, 2021 8:52:41 GMT
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 8:56:16 GMT
On the birth of Spaffer offspring number at least 8.
"The world’s population is now 6.7 billion, roughly double what it was when I was born. If I live to be in my mid-eighties, then it will have trebled in my lifetime.
The UN last year revised its forecasts upwards, predicting that there will be 9.2 billion people by 2050, and I simply cannot understand why no one discusses this impending calamity, and why no world statesmen have the guts to treat the issue with the seriousness it deserves.
How the hell can we witter on about tackling global warming, and reducing consumption, when we are continuing to add so relentlessly to the number of consumers? The answer is politics, and political cowardice."
Boris Johnson 2007
If ever there was proof that Spaffer thinks rules are for other people!
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