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Post by jimjam on Dec 10, 2021 8:57:52 GMT
Shevii, thanks for this ''This has changed to only 2% of Lab still going to vote Con and 7% of Con voting Lab''
Notwithstanding CMJs correct observation that LTV differentials between ABT and Tory leaners may be more more significant than switchers, Labour do need imo something of the order of a 3% direct swing to get close in the GE to seat parity as we can expect a good chunk of current Tory 2019 DK to revert, especially with a different PM.
On the numbers above it works out around a 1.25% swing which is decent progress but I would hope for 2%+ by May.
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 9:01:47 GMT
Some of the info on that link didn't look too good I admit. I saw a clip when various Tories were going into No 10 for some reason, and after a few had said No Comment or similar, the newsman asked Anderson what was going on, and he said "Don't ask me mate I'm just the window-cleaner". I like someone with a sense of humour. I also suspect that the camp site blocked by boulders was not one recommended by the Camping and Caravanning Club! |
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 9:15:29 GMT
Current YG average of Scots crossbreaks in last 7 polls (N=1031 : 28/10 to 9/12) SNP 47% : SCon 27% : SLab 17% : SGP 4% : REFUK 2% That though does not take account of an extended period of apparently clear Labour leads across GB. My suspicion is - I may be wrong - that when former Labour voters in Scotland see the party well placed to oust the Tories, that many will be inclined to switch back to Labour. On the poll figures of recent days I see no reason why Labour cannot better its 2017 result in Scotland. That depends what motivates former Labour voters in Scotland. Pro independence or anti Tory. If they believe that independence is within sight, will they really care who runs rUK? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 9:22:11 GMT
On next week's by-election - I'm not sure I buy the excitement. Yes it's looking entirely possible/likely that the Tories will lose the seat, but whether that leads to panic and leadership questions? By-elections are rare altogether; by-elections that are even initially comparable (same party in government, same party challenging) are even rarer. As far as I can see there are only four other by-elections in the last 25 years where the Tories were defending from government against the Lib Dems, and one of those was in Wales. But just on that, they were; Witney, Oct16 - Swing to LD 19.3%, CON Hold (subsequent GE swing -10.2%, CON Hold) Richmond Park, Dec16 - Swing to LD 21.7%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -2.5%, CON Gain) Brecon & Radnorshire, Aug19 - Swing to LD 12.0%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -10.5%, CON Gain) Chesham & Amersham, Jun21 - Swing to LD 25.2%, LD Gain (GE tbc) So if they lose the seat next week, I'm not sure there's much to say it's particularly going to set nerves jangling. Likewise if they do hold on I don't think it'll be taken as any vindication of Johnson's leadership. I think @jim jam's point about next year's locals will be rather more significant in terms of impact on leadership fortunes. I could imagine there may be some nervousness that the LDs have shed enough baggage from the coalition years and that Brexit may be a little less of a dividing issue to potentially allow a return to the 90s where the LDs won seats and then kept them in subsequent GEs (ie Newbury '93). Whether that would be a justified fear in North Shrops at least I think is doubtful, I would imagine that dissatisfied North Shrops Tories (esp if leave voters) would return to the fold as soon as there's a change of leader. The LDs may be more likely to stick somewhere like Chesham as they chime more with the local mores. One thing the LDs are good at is attempting to build a strong local brand around a new MP. They certainly did that in Oxford West and Abingdon with Layla Moran after (and before) 2017. |
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Post by shevii on Dec 10, 2021 9:28:31 GMT
@jim Jam Like catmanjeff I too think likelihood to vote is going to be key at the next election. Normally that would be bad news for Labour as "Tories always vote" but Tories coalition is now very different from the traditional one and made up of a lot of "get brexit done" voters many of whom probably hadn't voted in a long time until the referendum. I'd suggest the "soft Tory" vote is very different to the traditional might give LD/Blair a chance types. Meanwhile events will determine if the ABT vote is motivated enough to vote or to be studiously voting ABT. |
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Post by wb61 on Dec 10, 2021 9:34:05 GMT
robertWhatever the nature of the campsite an unlawful act by an elected representative is worthy of censure is it not?
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 9:46:08 GMT
@jim Jam
What was really startling in GE19 was the Conservatives winning Greater Grimsby and losing Putney and just this year winning Hartlepool and losing Amersham.
Will Middle England more likely get behind a Sunak and Truss power team who come across as being more responsible and are detail oriented.
Starmer came out recently and stated that Labour are the now the party of middle England.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 9:49:00 GMT
No sign whatever of a move against BJ. Continued bubbling discontent and internal party strife is the worst option with a discredited leader hanging in there.
Depressing.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 10:09:58 GMT
neilj I don't usually read the Express but this in your link stuck out.
"BREXIT, according to its backers, was meant to create endless opportunities. So far, however, the UK has failed to make the vote profitable, with the prospect of "global Britain" quickly fading according to recent data." Like the Express wasn't one of the most vocal of those backers. "Positions vary greatly between newspapers: Daily Mail included the most pro-Leave articles followed by Daily Express, Daily Star, The Sun and Daily Telegraph. The newspapers including the most pro-Remain articles were, in order, Daily Mirror, The Guardian and Financial Times. The study says the articles examined in The Times were relatively evenly balanced between the two positions, with a slight preponderance of pro-Leave articles. All newspapers, whatever their main position, included some articles presenting the other point of view; however, the proportion of these was smallest in Daily Express and Daily Mirror, says the study."
I'm not your typical gloating remoaner, as I was genuinely in two minds about the vote and only decided about 2-3 days before the ballot to vote Remain. However, for the Express editorial team to distance themselves from Brexit will take some grade A rewriting of history.
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Post by catmanjeff on Dec 10, 2021 10:20:11 GMT
No sign whatever of a move against BJ. Continued bubbling discontent and internal party strife is the worst option with a discredited leader hanging in there. Depressing. The fact that all the likely replacements (Gove/Sunak/Truss) are nowhere to be seen. They are keeping away from all things Boris, so when he goes down, they don't go with him. I note at PMQs the Tories around Boris were very quiet. Many MPs will be watching for who looks like a good bet to get behind in the future. Perhaps someone like William Wragg might break and call for him to go first. That group seems the most likely source. |
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 10:37:14 GMT
robert Whatever the nature of the campsite an unlawful act by an elected representative is worthy of censure is it not? Assuming it was a lawful site, then I do of course, agree with you. |
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barbara
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Post by barbara on Dec 10, 2021 10:53:01 GMT
I think we'll see more of this from the leave supporting media. For two reasons: 1. They're pretty clear Brexit is not going to deliver the promised benefits and want to start distancing themselves from the fallout and to stay on the right side of history 2. They want to start softening up their readers for the inevitable U turn. In a decade you'll hardly be able to find anyone who voted for Brexit. (Bit like you can't find anyone who supported the Iraq invasion or who wept inconsolably in the streets when Diana died.) (I plead guilty to the first - and regret it - and an emphatic not guilty to the second) |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 11:05:02 GMT
catmanjeff@"The fact that all the likely replacements (Gove/Sunak/Truss) are nowhere to be seen." I'm wondering whether the 100 or so new Con 2019 intake might be so disillusioned with the Old Guard, that they might have other ideas.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 10, 2021 11:07:12 GMT
Colin
Yes, all keeping their heads down. Two weeks before Christmas, a week before a potentially tight by election, the day after Johnson had another child, no obvious challenger or even stalking horse, and no clarity on who attended the indeterminate number of parties.
I'm already detecting a scent of newly lengthening grass and doubt this will bring him down quite yet, but it may only take a couple more leaks, particularly likely if further heads of underlings roll, to make everything look even worse than it does already.
I suspect most are hanging on in the hope things either right themselves or Johnson jumps. Many in safe seats will be happy to let him drive them all to the very edge of the abyss so they can dump the blame for everything firmly at his door and start with a clean page.
It comes to something when Hunt looks like the safest and cleanest pair of hands.
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 11:16:25 GMT
I think we'll see more of this from the leave supporting media. For two reasons: 1. They're pretty clear Brexit is not going to deliver the promised benefits and want to start distancing themselves from the fallout and to stay on the right side of history 2. They want to start softening up their readers for the inevitable U turn. In a decade you'll hardly be able to find anyone who voted for Brexit. (Bit like you can't find anyone who supported the Iraq invasion or who wept inconsolably in the streets when Diana died.) (I plead guilty to the first - and regret it - and an emphatic not guilty to the second) I think the EU in its current form will dissolve. Britain leaving was the beginning of the end of the EU in his current form. This is just my opinion. |
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barbara
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Post by barbara on Dec 10, 2021 11:23:07 GMT
t7g4
"I think the EU in its current form will dissolve. Britain leaving was the beginning of the end of the EU in his current form. This is just my opinion."
Depends what you mean by "current form". The EU is unlikely to stay the same as that's the way of progress (or regress depending on your view) so as far as that goes I agree with you. The EU has constantly changed during its 60 year existence, as has the UK and both will continue to evolve.
If you mean a collaborative group of Western democracies will not survive then I think you're wrong. European countries (present UK govt excepted) understand they are no longer powerful enough to withstand global and political forces alone.
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Post by jayblanc on Dec 10, 2021 11:30:36 GMT
Boris will not lead the party into the next general election because he won't want to tarnish the general election victory he achieved in 2019. He knows his time is coming to an end. That is an assumption about character that I do not see any evidence for. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 11:37:39 GMT
I think we'll see more of this from the leave supporting media. For two reasons: 1. They're pretty clear Brexit is not going to deliver the promised benefits and want to start distancing themselves from the fallout and to stay on the right side of history 2. They want to start softening up their readers for the inevitable U turn. In a decade you'll hardly be able to find anyone who voted for Brexit. (Bit like you can't find anyone who supported the Iraq invasion or who wept inconsolably in the streets when Diana died.) (I plead guilty to the first - and regret it - and an emphatic not guilty to the second) I think the EU in its current form will dissolve. Britain leaving was the beginning of the end of the EU in his current form. This is just my opinion. "Britain leaving was the beginning of the end of the EU in his current form" - I would strongly argue that Britain leaving and the obvious and ongoing pain that has caused internally and externally has helped to consolidate the EU. As Barbara said the EU being mainly a common expression of the member states (something always misunderstood here) is infinitely adaptable.IMHO the EU is the most progressive expression of administration in the world today and will actually be a template for the future. In no remaining EU state is there a clear desire to leave as polling has shown. |
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 11:45:43 GMT
t7g4 "I think the EU in its current form will dissolve. Britain leaving was the beginning of the end of the EU in his current form. This is just my opinion." Depends what you mean by "current form". The EU is unlikely to stay the same as that's the way of progress (or regress depending on your view) so as far as that goes I agree with you. The EU has constantly changed during its 60 year existence, as has the UK and both will continue to evolve. If you mean a collaborative group of Western democracies will not survive then I think you're wrong. European countries (present UK govt excepted) understand they are no longer powerful enough to withstand global and political forces alone. Yes I mean in the way its currently set up. I still see a set up in place amongst some European countries in the future for trade and political and further integration reasons but I think some of the nations that are part of the EU today won't be part of that. So the UK won't be the first country to leave the EU. I am not referring to the end of the nation state as I don't ever foresee that although as a world we can do so much more if we choose to work with each other instead of against. Can we tackle the issues with the environment if we continue to consume like we have. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 11:47:47 GMT
Actual voting confirmation of polling
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
10h
Aughton & Swallownest (Rotherham) by-election:
LAB: 49.8% (+10.2)
CON: 38.3% (+6.1)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
YORK: 2.7% (+2.7)
TUSC: 2.5% (+2.5)
RDP: 1.2% (-15.3)
LDEM: 1.1% (-4.1)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Votes: 1,296
Prev. Con member was 2nd placed winner in two seat contest.
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
11h
Anston & Woodsetts (Rotherham) by-election result:
LDEM: 38.6% (+16.6)
CON: 26.1% (-6.6)
LAB: 20.3% (+0.4)
IND (Jepson): 7.2% (+7.2)
IND (Ireland): 4.5% (-11.7)
GRN: 2.4% (-5.8)
YORK: 0.8% (+0.8)
RDP: 0.2% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Old Bracknell (Bracknell Forest) council by-election result:
LAB: 61.1% (+23.2)
CON: 38.9% (-9.3)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
No LDem (-13.9) as prev.
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 11:52:04 GMT
Westminster voting intention : LAB: 40% (+1) CON: 34% (-2) LDEM: 10% (+1) GRN: 4% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-) via @survation, 08 - 09 Dec Chgs. w/ 01 Dec Bad for Starmer. Labour should be at least 10 points ahead after the latest cock-ups. |
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 10, 2021 11:55:26 GMT
Castle (Tonbridge & Malling) by-election result:
GRN: 59.3% (+36.0)
CON: 36.8% (-7.3)
LAB: 3.9% (-5.0)
Green GAIN from Conservative.
No LDem (-23.6) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,233
Are the Conservative voters also punishing the party because they are stating NIMBY?
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Post by shevii on Dec 10, 2021 12:06:24 GMT
Colin Yes, all keeping their heads down. Two weeks before Christmas, a week before a potentially tight by election, the day after Johnson had another child, no obvious challenger or even stalking horse, and no clarity on who attended the indeterminate number of parties. I'm already detecting a scent of newly lengthening grass and doubt this will bring him down quite yet, but it may only take a couple more leaks, particularly likely if further heads of underlings roll, to make everything look even worse than it does already. I suspect most are hanging on in the hope things either right themselves or Johnson jumps. Many in safe seats will be happy to let him drive them all to the very edge of the abyss so they can dump the blame for everything firmly at his door and start with a clean page. It comes to something when Hunt looks like the safest and cleanest pair of hands. I don't think any Fight For Your Right To Party Tory would be willing to do a leadership challenge until they find out whether they are going to take some flack from any further revelations. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 10, 2021 12:08:27 GMT
Westminster voting intention : LAB: 40% (+1) CON: 34% (-2) LDEM: 10% (+1) GRN: 4% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-) via @survation, 08 - 09 Dec Chgs. w/ 01 Dec Bad for Starmer. Labour should be at least 10 points ahead after the latest cock-ups. It is an interesting observation. A lot of people instinctively won't support Labour, just as many would not support the Tories. The Greens should be making more headway, but I suspect they have been damaged by assumed association with the "Insulate Britain" mob, just as Labour became associated with anarchist mobs under Corbyn. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 12:12:55 GMT
t7g4 "So the UK won't be the first country to leave the EU" The UK was always a huge outlier compared to other EU countries in terms of the popularity of EU Membership. And the data in my link above shows no state with less than 68% support for EU membership. It seems to me highly unlikely that any other country would choose to Leave as we did. Perhaps you are thinking that one or both of Poland or Hungary might be expelled - for which there is a mechanism - but note that people in both these countries do not want to leave by a huge margin. I have always believed that the UK was unique in its peculiar hatred for the EU. I believe it more than ever. British xenophobia is very unusual by European standards. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 12:16:15 GMT
You have to wonder why Labour is even competing in the seat. But then, with Labour, you always have to wonder! |
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 10, 2021 12:17:09 GMT
tancredIs your xenophobia comment a wind up? Maybe you should check the progress of the far-right across Europe before making comments like that?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 10, 2021 12:24:39 GMT
Bad for Starmer. Labour should be at least 10 points ahead after the latest cock-ups. It is an interesting observation. A lot of people instinctively won't support Labour, just as many would not support the Tories. The Greens should be making more headway, but I suspect they have been damaged by assumed association with the "Insulate Britain" mob, just as Labour became associated with anarchist mobs under Corbyn. In a sense Labour have the exact opposite problem to the Conservatives. The Tories have a showman leader without much substance and a dodgy moral compass, plus no obvious 'sensible head' heir. Labour have a relatively uninspiring, even dour, dead straight guy, steeped in the law, with a hot headed deputy who some think could supplant him. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 12:27:03 GMT
tancred Is your xenophobia comment a wind up? Maybe you should check the progress of the far-right across Europe before making comments like that? The far-right issue is another thing altogether. British xenophobia is directed mainly against other Europeans, while in several European countries there is a backlash against mass immigration from outside Europe. What I particularly despise is people who seem to justify hatred of the EU as 'moderate' while sanctimoniously condemning any anti-immigration movements in Europe. Pure hypocrisy. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 10, 2021 12:31:27 GMT
tancred Is your xenophobia comment a wind up? Maybe you should check the progress of the far-right across Europe before making comments like that? The far-right issue is another thing altogether. British xenophobia is directed mainly against other Europeans, while in several European countries there is a backlash against mass immigration from outside Europe. What I particularly despise is people who seem to justify hatred of the EU as 'moderate' while sanctimoniously condemning any anti-immigration movements in Europe. Pure hypocrisy. I think only time will tell if Starmer is capable of overcoming his lack of charisma issue. Personally it doesn't bother me - I prefer a boring decent leader to a charismatic rogue like Boris Johnson, but people are fickle. |
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