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Post by James E on Feb 12, 2022 12:04:34 GMT
@ James E That's because the older you get, the more you care about the future for your children and grandchildren. Therefore you get sensible. It looks to me like the present 75+ cohort was always Tory-inclined. Looking back at the 1992 election, Ipsos Mori show the then 45-54s (so today's 75+) as favouring the Tories by 16 points (47 Con, 31 Lab). They were then - as now - the most pro-Tory age-group, while their elders were rather more Labour-inclined. It's true that they have swung further to the Conservatives over the past 30 years - by 10 points. And the 65-74s have moved by a similar figure. But looking at today's 55-64s, among whom the Tories currently have a 4 point lead, this is effectively unchanged 30 years on from GE1992. Ipsos Mori's figures from 1992 show that the (then) 25-34s favoured the Tories by 40-37. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992 |
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Post by James E on Feb 12, 2022 11:23:08 GMT
As with any poll, it's useful to have some comparative figures: a lead of 21 points among the over-55s may sound reassuring for the Tories, but a comparison of YouGov's GE2019 analysis (below) suggests that the Tories were close to 60% in this wide age-bracket, and Lab perhaps around 20%. Unfortunately the age groups don't match up, but it's possible to estimate. So the recent figures - with comparative GE2019 figures - are: Con 49% (-10) Lab 28% (+ 8) Quite significant movement given that older voters are generally less likely to change VI. yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-electionSo, a 9% swing. That feels broadly in line with what a number of polls lately seem to have been showing in terms of headline Con-Lab VI movement cf. 2019 GE. Doubtless I'll be suitably admonished if I've not been reading the runes correctly. Yes - it's around a 9% swing - or a little less than this for those over 65. And YouGov's write -up of it is (in my opinion) mostly beside the point. There is surely no prospect of Labour being ahead among over 55s when they trailed by close to 40 points in 2019. But the Tories' lead in this demographic has been reduced, just about in line with polling of the whole electorate. Although there is also the factor that some people will have 'moved up' from one age-cohort to the next. So a true like-with-like comparison would show a somewhat smaller swing. The other thing that I think it worth mentioning is the 3 sub-samples within the over 55s. These really highlight just how strongly the Tories support base is skewed to older voters: Age 55-64: Con 39, Lab 35 Age 65-74: Con 53, Lab 27 Age 75+ : Con 58, Lab 22 |
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 22:17:00 GMT
oldnat pjw1961The Scottish sample in the YG over-55s poll is just 132 - which is then upweighted to 182. Even with such a small sample, it is freakishly low for them to have the SNP on 10% when other evidence suggests more like 40%. I suspect that it simply wasn't weighted to Scotland's voting pattern, especially since the SNP take 1% of the GB 2019Lab vote, and 3% of the GB 2019LibDem Vote. When you scale up these figures to Scotland (@9% of GB) they account for around 5 of the SNP's 10 points.
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 19:25:51 GMT
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 19:17:30 GMT
Looking at the polls I still think polling will be back to MoE by summer 'Margin of Error' applies at all times with opinion polling, Turk, irrespective of whther the party you support is ahead or behind. I suspect you mean that you expect Con and Lab will be within 3 points of being level in the polls - each of which typically has a MoE of around 3%. You have stated the same a few times before, only with a different date (e.g 'in a fortnight' and 'by March' etc). yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/11/21/understanding-margin-error |
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 18:35:57 GMT
It is odd that YouGov don't attempt any comparison to GE2019, as it is hardly 'news' that the Tories fare way better with older voters. The 30-point difference between the overall GB position (Lab 9 points ahead) and that for over 55s (Con 21 points ahead) needs to be read in comparison with the last election where the difference was 28 points. So the movement since 2019 is a little lower with the over 55s. Who would have expected that... ? To add: a more useful comparitor here is the Ipsos Mori analysis of GE2019 which showed the Conservatives leading Labour by 49-27 among 55-64s, and 64-17 among age65+. Per YouGov's poll the leads in these groups have shrunk by 18 and 17 points respectively. This suggests a 9-point swing as opposed to the 10-point swing from GE2019 implied by most recent GB polls. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election |
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 17:12:19 GMT
Some new polls from YG.... ..Also one showing CON retaining most of their 55+ vote, although note high DKs, WNVs and LTVs. (and also note... that come GE'24 then they'll be less people who were 55+ in GE'19 able to vote) docs.cdn.yougov.com/8imspgtrn4/55%2B%20VI%20020222.pdfAs with any poll, it's useful to have some comparative figures: a lead of 21 points among the over-55s may sound reassuring for the Tories, but a comparison of YouGov's GE2019 analysis (below) suggests that the Tories were close to 60% in this wide age-bracket, and Lab perhaps around 20%. Unfortunately the age groups don't match up, but it's possible to estimate. So the recent figures - with comparative GE2019 figures - are: Con 49% (-10) Lab 28% (+ 8) Quite significant movement given that older voters are generally less likely to change VI. yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election |
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Post by James E on Feb 11, 2022 10:58:59 GMT
@mark The end of the Tories has been predicted many times and so has the end of Labour for that matter. I can remember posts on Ukpr1, post 2010, stating things like, "it's over 20 years since they've won a GE, the best they can get now is, biggest party and a coalition". Similar for Labour, when it seemed that the extremists had taken their party over...... On the whole, I agree with the gist of this: the demise or decline of the Conservative Party has been predicted many times before, only for the Tories to reinvent themselves so as to appeal to a somewhat different base. But there are some valid polling-based reasons for seeing a more difficult future for the Tories. They are heavily reliant on older voters, while Labour now have a huge lead with the young. And this wasn't always the case. By my rough calculations, age-demographics alone are worth a swing of around 0.5% each year from Con to Lab. The Tories need to offset this just to stand still. |
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Post by James E on Feb 10, 2022 21:04:35 GMT
I remember an edition of the quiz show Pointless when they had a picture round asking contestants to identify the names of those in the gallery. One of the pictures was of the Head of the Metropolitan Police. In one of the all time vintage moments of the show, a contestant went for this photograph. He confidently said, "I think that's Caressa Dick." Cue audience titters and Richard Osman, the show's host, corpsing. |
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Post by James E on Feb 10, 2022 18:39:50 GMT
Steel making was one of the British industries set to benefit from Brexit per the article by Daniel Hannan from 2016 which I quoted this morning (p14). Falling energy prices were meant to help with this, of course. |
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Post by James E on Feb 10, 2022 10:45:25 GMT
[ a page of Brexiters' promises] That didn't age well. Looking at that made me wonder whatever happened to Hannan, I've not seen a peep out of him for a year or more, whereas he used to be all over the media. Yes, he seems to have gone into hiding. Possibly because some might want to ask him about the things he was telling us would happen back in 2016: www.dw.com/en/brexit-strategist-daniel-hannan-five-years-from-now-britain-will-be-flourishing/a-19398488"..Hannan argued before the vote that no one would lose their job except himself and a few hundred British eurocrats. He still says he does not believe that Britain as a business location will be weakened by Brexit..I don’t think there is going to be any prejudicial change to our commercial relations with our European allies, who will remain our friends in any circumstances..." reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/ |
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Post by James E on Feb 6, 2022 21:48:19 GMT
I would certainly agree Johnson is a liar and certainly prone to gross exaggeration. Whether he is any more a liar or prone to exaggeration than any other Politician is a mute point..... Is it really a 'mute' point? Or even a moot* point? Voters certainly aren't keeping quiet - and even those who voted Tory two years ago seem to have become convinced that he's a liar: "Not least of the reasons why Mr Johnson has been unable to change voters’ minds about Partygate is that they simply do not believe what he says. According to Savanta ComRes, 65 per cent feel that throughout the furore the Prime Minister has either “only told lies” or at least that he has “lied more than he has told the truth”. In contrast, just 13 per cent take the view that he has “only told the truth” or “has told the truth more than he has lied”. Even among 2019 Conservative voters, only 23 per cent believe he has largely been truthful. Meanwhile, when Opinium simply asked whether Mr Johnson was telling the truth or not, 75 per cent of all voters (and 61 per cent of Conservatives) said he was not." inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-polls-public-do-note-believe-partygate-1440674* www.theguardian.com/media/mind-your-language/2015/jan/16/mind-your-language-moot-point |
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Post by James E on Feb 4, 2022 23:42:53 GMT
There should be different kinds of likes (and I know Mark can't affect this). 1) Like because it's funny 2) Like because you agree with it 3) Like because you appreciate the effort/argument even if you don't necessarily agree What about 4) Like because it’s deliciously ridiculous? Or 5) 'Like' because you clicked on the wrong box by mistake? |
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Post by James E on Feb 4, 2022 22:50:23 GMT
Blimey a piece of cake and a can of beer. Thank god the Met have got a top crime squad on the job ,mind you with the Met’s detection rate Boris should get off on either the cake or the can . I’ve got a awful feeling the Met should have assembled a team of traffic wardens instead of a of top notch team of crime fighters , traffic wardens have no trouble handing out tickets and are a lot cheaper. "May I begin by saying that I understand and share the anger up and down the country at seeing Number 10 staff seeming to make light of lockdown measures. And I can understand how infurating it must be to think that the people who have been setting the rules have not been following the rules - because I was also FURIOUS to see that clip and, Mr Speaker, I apologise unreservedly for the offence that it has caused up and down the country and and I apologise for the impression that it gives. But I repeat Mr Speaker that I have been repeatedly assured, since these allegations emerged, that there was NO PARTY and that no Covid rules were broken - because that is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts and to report back as soon as possible and it goes without saying that if those rules were broken then there will be disciplinary action for ALL those involved..." Boris Johnson, 8 December 2021 |
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Post by James E on Feb 4, 2022 15:07:56 GMT
[tweet of R&W poll - Labour now better than the Tories at absolutely everything] If we're to accept the alleged eternal verities of General Election outcomes (received wisdom, perhaps?),then it appears that things are beginning to align for Starmer and Labour. He leads on most preferred PM and his party on most trusted on the economy. These being the two shiny fobs on which the keys to Downing Street are allegedly always attached. In fairness, there is some truth in this old adage, and while it's very likely that both/either of these factors could turn again before any General Election, there must be some genuinely encouraging news for Starmer in these recent poll findings. I wonder when Labour were last ahead on both questions? I hereby lay down this challenge to James E to find out and tell us! Blair led on 'Best PM' and Labour on the economy throughout 1997-2007; indeed it took until 2009 for David Cameron to take a small lead on 'best PM' (see below). It seems that historically, there has been a huge advantage to the party in Government in these questions. But it is a very long time ( 27 years, at least) since Labour has had a lead on both of these questions when in opposition. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/most-capable-prime-minister-trendsDespite the huge Labour lead in the polls from late 1992 to GE1997, the Tories were still more trusted on the economy approaching GE1997, although Lab had managed a small lead from some polls in 1995. Foot, Kinnock, Milliband and Corbyn were never rated by the public as 'Best PM' as opposition leader, and it seems that apart from Blair, the last Labour Leader of the Opposition to do this was Jim Callaghan in 1980. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/best-party-key-issues-managing-economy |
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Post by James E on Feb 4, 2022 10:43:22 GMT
"There’s another basic reason why tonight is such a disaster for him. When police finally finish and Gray finally gets published there’s going to be a new wave of outrage and Johnson’s going to need new sacrifices - but everyone who could do it has now gone. He’s totally exposed." The personal benefit of them departing is presumably they will no longer be under a duty as government employees to cooperate with police enquiries. @danny As a useful rule of thumb, things that you presume are almost invariably not true. This is a good example. |
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Post by James E on Feb 3, 2022 19:26:53 GMT
Johnson's Director of Communications also resigns saying that he always intended to do so about now and that the last few weeks have taken a terrible toll on his family life. Strange that he chose today to do what he said he intended to do but there we are. Whole No 10 operation in crisis it seems. For the first time I am convinced that Johnson is toast. I reckon enough letters will now go in and I think in the current mood he will get his marching orders from his MPs. If this proves so, my local one will be heartbroken and, shortly afterward, out of office, as he only has a government job thanks to being a long term Johnson loyalist. He's never displayed any other discernible talent. If the threshold is reached for a vote, there's still a long way from 15% to the 50% needed to vote Johnson out. But I'm not sure that he'd credibly be able to continue if more than around 30-35% of his MPs no longer have confidence in him. Theresa May limped on for a few months after 37% of her MPs (or 117 of them) voted against her. A similar result would fatally weaken Johnson. Looking further back, John Major narrowly survived as Tory leader in 1995 when John Redwood took 29% of the votes cast in his leadership challenge to Major's 71%. A similar result would be just about the worst that could still be presented as some sort of endorsement for Johnson. |
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Post by James E on Feb 3, 2022 14:18:28 GMT
Shevii - "One of my predictions for the next election is much lower turnout. "
I think you're right, and there's some evidence to back that up, too.
YouGov give figures for 'Would Not Vote' in each poll, and from their 3 most recent, we have figures of around 10% of ABC1s and 15% C2DEs saying they would not vote. A comparison to July and August 2019 shows that each these figures has risen by about 3-4 points from 6% ABC1s and 12% C2DEs.
One other factor to consider is that Leave voters are far more likely than Remainers- by 10% to 3% per YouGov's last 5 polls - to say that they will not vote at the next GE.
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Post by James E on Feb 2, 2022 18:58:02 GMT
I have heard a number of tory politicians say, including the Prime Minister, that levelling up is for the whole country, not just those areas struggling economically. If they do levelling up for the whole country then surely the current discrepancies for the areas will be just the same? Then all those discrepancies of health inequalities, job prospects, transport etc will still be present Has this been posted before - from the Graun earlier today? www.theguardian.com/inequality/2022/feb/02/levelling-up-funding-inequality-exposed-by-guardian-researchSome wealthy areas will see 10 times the "levelling up" funding of the poorest. |
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Post by James E on Feb 2, 2022 17:27:25 GMT
If and when Keir Starmer calls a "no-confidence" motion in the Government over 'partygate', I trust that he'll pop in here to give thanks for the 'free advice' he was given yesterday from a top UKPR political strategist*.  * he blocks my posts, so won't read this. I had taken you off the hidden list as you do post some polling info. However, after another zzz ZZZ ' fake gotcha' effort reminiscent of the zzz ZZZ 'fake gotcha gang' zzz ZZZ from UKPR v1 (or laziness to read the range of options available to Starmer if laziness is also your excuse) then your back on it Nothing 'fake' at all about it, Trevor. Yesterday, you gave 'free advice' to Keir Starmer, saying that he should call a "no confidence" motion over 'partygate'. 24 hours later, you seem 'annoyed' to be reminded about it. |
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Post by James E on Feb 2, 2022 16:46:09 GMT
Isa re your ''From watching PMQs earlier, perhaps KS is one of our lurkers?'' I know for a fact that one MP in the shadow team, with a close enough relationship with Starmer to bring ideas etc to the PMQs team, read the old UKPR site. I haven't seem him/her for some time due to Covid but will try dropping in the the chat when I do. If and when Keir Starmer calls a "no-confidence" motion in the Government over 'partygate', I trust that he'll pop in here to give thanks for the 'free advice' he was given yesterday from a top UKPR political strategist*.  * he blocks my posts, so won't read this. |
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Post by James E on Feb 1, 2022 21:33:07 GMT
As there's been some mention of Johnson's time as Mayor of London, I thought people might like to know how the London orbital railway he proposed in 2014 ended up. www.youtube.com/watch?v=EajlcIS3aX8Another unworkable abandoned project to add the the London Garden Bridge, the Scotland/Ireland Bridge, Boris Airport, routemaster buses (with conductors), unused water cannon, etc etc |
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Post by James E on Feb 1, 2022 20:56:04 GMT
Thought this was ... {etc} I think the idea that Johnson has an appeal to certain groups other Tories cannot reach began with winning two London Mayor elections in what is essentially a Labour city. I don't know enough about those elections to say why he won - was it being up against the equally controversial Ken Livingstone? Anyone with London knowledge have any insights? You need to remember that Labour's dominance in London is a comparatively recent thing. For the entire period from 1945 to 1992, General Election results in London mirrored those of GB as a whole, with neither Con or Lab gaining any real long-term dominance. As a socially-mixed city, it acted as somewhat of a bellweather. Labour gained an advantage in 1997, leading by 18 points in London, but by 12-13 across GB. But this wasn't really the start of their period of dominance: in 2005, Labour fared only 4 points better in London than GB as a whole (with a 7 point lead). This was the context in which Johnson won the 2008 mayoral election. And as Labour only had a 2 point lead in London in 2010, it's not too hard to imagine how a Tory candidate could have won 2 years earlier. The growing divergence of London from GB politics in the 21st Centurycan be illustrated by the gap that has opened up in the past 5 General Elections, comparing the difference between the popular vote in London and that in GB as a whole: 2005 4 Points ( Lon Lab +7%, GB Lab +3%) 2010 9 Points ( Lon Lab +2, GB Con + 7) 2015 15 Points (Lon Lab+ 9, GB Con + 6) 2017 24 Points (Lon Lab +21, GB Con +2) 2019 30 Points (Lon lab +18, GB Con +12) |
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Post by James E on Feb 1, 2022 20:13:58 GMT
James E “And just 3% answered "worse of" to the question : "Do you think you personally would be financially better or worse off if Britain left the European Union, or would it make no difference?" ———- But I am arguing that they might indeed think it will make them better off overall. But they might not get the gains immediately. Your exact wording included "worse off in the short term", as well as "better off overall". I doubt there is any polling to support that idea - besides, prior to the referendum there was little-to-no talk from the Leave side of negative short-term consequences. |
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Post by James E on Feb 1, 2022 19:46:01 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w "...whether the working class might be prepared to vote for things that might be a bit worse for them in the short run in the hope of something better later" I've posted this before, but in reference to Brexit, the short answer is "no". Almost no-one who voted for it thought (at the time) that it would make them worse off. d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/atmwrgevvj/TimesResults_160622_EVEOFPOLL.pdfOf a sub-set of 1,652 Leave voters asked on 20 June 2016, just 4% answered 'Worse off" to the question "Do you think Britain would be economically better or worse off if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?". 48% - 12 times as many - thought it would make them better off. And just 3% answered "worse of" to the question : "Do you think you personally would be financially better or worse off if Britain left the European Union, or would it make no difference?"
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Post by James E on Feb 1, 2022 9:40:45 GMT
In the latest Global Britain news, remember Johnson's scheduled Big Boy call with Vlad Putin, when the British PM would demonstrate his global leadership on Ukrainian affairs? (despite the fact, largely unreported in the British press, that the UK wasn't invited to the Russian/US/France/Germany talks just held across the channel). Because the Gray report landed, the UK asked the Russians to delay the call. Putin said he couldn't. So no call. So for all those numpties still insisting that partygate is an irrelevancy, time to wake up. The need to defend this most useless of PMs is so all consuming that it is distorting all government business. Anyone who relies on our national broadcaster will be surprised to learn this. Contrast the reporting of this from The Evening Standard with the way it's being airbrushed by the BBC www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/boris-johnson-misses-call-with-vladimir-putin-amid-sue-gray-report-fallout/ar-AATm6ca?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60204847 |
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Post by James E on Jan 31, 2022 23:54:52 GMT
Well having caught up with today’s events I should think Boris will be able to relax a little bit for at least a few weeks. Today could well have stiffened the Tory party resolve not to remove Boris at present ,why do I think that because they are not about to let mainly a anti-brexit media who’s been out to get Johnson since he was elected or let opposition parties to decide who is going to remove the PM of the Tory party who won a democratic vote with a large majority in 2019. It’s unlikely that there will be enough Tory letters sent in for a VoNC but if they do it’s very unlikely Boris will lose a confidence vote in the next couple of months. However having said that it is likely the party will remove Boris later in the year as the liability and useless PM that he is. Of course if something else not partygate related happens all bets are off. But whatever happens the next Tory Leader which I hope will be the minister Penny Mordaunt ,but whoever they choose will have the advantage of not being embroiled in partygate ,makes you wonder what Starmer and the ludicrous Blackford will have to talk about. I think UKPR2 contributors from left and right would agree with the highlighted part of your comment. But as you concede that he's a terrible PM, it seems all the stranger that you object to the opposition, the press, or indeed anyone outside the Tory Party saying he should go now. The gist of your post seems to be that despite being a useless PM, you'd like him to stay in power for just a few months longer. Is that right? |
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Post by James E on Jan 31, 2022 22:56:48 GMT
SDA - "What I can't quite understand is how Tory MP's can't see what everyone else can and how they haven't twigged that booting out Johnson would see a big surge in their VI/Approval in plain gratitude for taking action.
It either makes them complicit or dense, or both."
There have been a couple of polls showing that while Sunak would do a few points better than Johnson, most other likely contenders would actually do worse. This from R&W last week, for example:
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Post by James E on Jan 31, 2022 22:01:25 GMT
Not a lot of movement (compared to 25 Jan) in YouGov's snap poll.
SNAP POLL: 63% of Britons still want Boris Johnson to resign
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Post by James E on Jan 31, 2022 19:52:43 GMT
crofty
Davwel is probably your goto on this, but my council happily composts the leaves that it sweeps from the streets and gutters, as well as those we put out in brown bins along with our other food and garden waste. We do not require to provide evidence that all leaves were caught in mid air before they touched the ground. I add leaves from the roadside to my loafmould*, and it seems fine**. Any oils on the road would be very diluted in a big pile of leaves, and it's rare for the roads here to be treated with grit or salt until December - so several weeks after the leaves have fallen. *https://www.rhs.org.uk/soil-composts-mulches/leaf-mould **...when I use it in the garden a year or more later... |
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