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Post by jib on Nov 4, 2024 22:33:55 GMT
mark61 It was on the brink last time. If as I think we all hope the criminal rapist does lose again this time he doesn't have the influence he was able to apply as incumbent president ,albeit his cult acolytes at congress , governor and Senate level and his christofascist yes men in the supreme court will no doubt do their best to undermine democracy.  |
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Post by Rafwan on Nov 4, 2024 22:41:10 GMT
grahamThe sole function of ‘relative’ marking was to allocate people to different grades and ranks, a highly expensive selection process. Actual learning and development was incidental. The absurdity of this was unsustainable and in the eighties it gave way to criterion-refenced marking. If you could do what was asked of you, you got the mark. This move had begun in higher education a couple of decades before, with the advent of the Council for National Academic Awards (CNAA). It was pioneered in the polytechnics, but the universities soon followed suit.
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Post by pete on Nov 4, 2024 22:56:12 GMT
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Post by pete on Nov 4, 2024 23:16:46 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 4, 2024 23:30:15 GMT
Pow 1961 Wow did you miss the bungs Starmer and some of his cabinet received don’t remember any complaints from you about that . Or does the word bung only imply to those on the right. Oh yeah a bung is alright if you declare it forgot about that. Bit like a con man getting money from someone then before hie’s caught he goes to the police and admits it and the copper says that’s all right then off you go nothing to see here. I assume you are referring to various freebies and junkets. There is a significant difference between that and accepting money from someone you then approve a major planning decision for against the advice of your officials. The latter is illegal and corrupt, hence "unlawful". The former, even if unwise, is not. Jenrick was fortunate not to be charged with misconduct in public office - he escaped by performing a rapid reverse ferret. Here is the story in a non-political source: www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/jenrick-fast-tracked-westferry-decision-to-save-desmond-45m Pow, zap, knockout. |
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Post by eor on Nov 4, 2024 23:30:27 GMT
So many polls came out in the last couple of days, indeed in the last couple of hours thar it's hard to see the full picture I'm concentrating on Pennsylvania, I think if Harris wins that she'll also win Michigan and Wisconsin and so win the Presidency Pennsylvania is very, very tight in the polls, so have looked at early voting to help At the moment Democrat registered voters are leading Republican ones 57% to 33% Female voters (more likely to vote Democrat) are leading males 56% to 43% My tuppence is on Harris to win Similar thing but I'd put it the other way around - if there is a big polling miss and Harris wins comfortably, I think this will turn out to have been the story. Just about the only way I can rationalise a systematic error towards the scale implied by the Selzer poll would be if there's a huge turnout differential between women and men, amplified by both the expansion of early voting provision and a post-COVID shift in behaviours. Essentially a lot of semi-engaged women who sometimes vote, sometimes don't, over the last couple of weeks having passed an early voting polling place with no queue and spontaneously gone in. Whilst the equivalent semi-engaged men stay home on election day because they're not motivated enough to go and queue up for either candidate. It's still a pretty big stretch, but it would at least explain how something that large could slip by pretty much the whole industry, if groups that would end up with large differential turnout consistently looked the same as each other in their LTV responses and thus either both got included by turnout filters or both excluded. And there's no way to get from the current data to that outcome without seeing the election day turnouts first - the kind of thing I'm describing could look identical to a post-COVID reversion to the more familiar pattern of Democrats and women just being more likely to vote early, and it balancing back out in the election day turnout. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 4, 2024 23:50:04 GMT
... And then, just who would benefit from abolishing the 6% best schools in the country? The answer of course is no one. Obviously the current private kids aould have to make do with state education. But they would redistribute to the very best of the state schools. Displacing poorer kids to worse schools. The net result would be state kids getting a worse education too. Not least because the budget would have to be stretched to include those 6% extra kids to be educated...less money for everyone. Which all seems to me cutting off your own nose to spite your face. ... You forget that it doesn't have to make sense to lefties. It's a bit like the MAGA cult - if someone is seen to be doing better than you, you must attack them and try to tear them down. This is preferable to trying to level things up in their view. Left-wing politicians prefer to have an ill-educated population because they are easier to control. Orwell was on the money in '1984'. The way things can be tweeted and then be deleted is reminiscent of Winston's job of editing old newspapers. The way certain words change their meaning or are not allowed to be used is reminiscent of the ever-changing Newspeak dictionary. I seem to remember Winston saying "The only hope is the proles". They have spoken once on Brexit. They may yet speak again. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 5, 2024 0:06:57 GMT
graham The sole function of ‘relative’ marking was to allocate people to different grades and ranks, a highly expensive selection process. Actual learning and development was incidental. The absurdity of this was unsustainable and in the eighties it gave way to criterion-refenced marking. If you could do what was asked of you, you got the mark. This move had begun in higher education a couple of decades before, with the advent of the Council for National Academic Awards (CNAA). It was pioneered in the polytechnics, but the universities soon followed suit. The point is that the assessment rules changed in a very significant way. I accept that there is a debate to be had as to which was the superior system , but it is ludicrous to compare grades awarded under one system with those awarded by another on a like for like basis. A few years back quite a pew commentators poked fun at Corbyn for only having manage 2 E grades in 1967 - whilst totally failing to point out that on the basis of current criteria he would almost certainly have managed 2 C grades at A Level. |
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Post by bardin1 on Nov 5, 2024 0:09:32 GMT
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 0:10:42 GMT
Thanks for the information about Hester. Regarding the joke, it was something that used to be said and I was repeating it to mock that attitude and perhaps the leftie stereotype of how I think. The laughing emoji was to help the humourless. Mercian, if you don't want People to think you think that sort of thing the best course of action is to stop saying it. I have had regrettably a long experience of Some right wing people saying Racist, sexist or homophobic statements with a nod and a wink to their mates with a 'you can't say that sort of thing these days, can you' which is what I mistook your laughing Emoji to be. It put me in mind of an Episode of Top Gear a few years ago,, I think it was when the Presenters were on a Road Trip in Burma, part of the task was to build a temporary Bridge across a river. Clarkson who is something of a Poster boy for the sort of type I describe above concluded the show remarking as a local Person began to cross the Bridge Which listed slightly 'look there is a Slope on the Bridge' this was subject to an offcom investigation. ( he also managed to sneak the N word in to one episode. ) Right wing Humour or what passes for it seems to love to Punch down. Well if it's any comfort, I have no time for Clarkson in most respects, although he did make a very moving documentary about his father-in-law's exploits at Arnhem, for which he won the VC although Clarkson didn't even know that until the chap was dead. But you really ought to lighten up a bit. Outrage on behalf of someone else is rarely appealing. I presume we're still allowed to make jokes about Yorkshiremen or Scots or Londoners or Welsh or whatever. Why not about someone from a different race? Surely we should treat everybody the same? I used to enjoy a comedy series about 20 years ago ( I can't remember the name) where the Asian cast often made fun of the English. I particularly remember one sketch where they were eating in an English restaurant and asked for everything to be as bland as possible - mashed potato, cauliflower etc - mocking the habit of some English people of going to an Indian restaurant and asking for the hottest dish, as some kind of challenge. They also asked the waiter's name and when he said 'Jonathan' they said "Oh that's too difficult, we'll call you Sanjay (or something)", again mocking the English. Very funny. It's a sad world if we can't have a laugh. |
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Post by bardin1 on Nov 5, 2024 0:13:15 GMT
Well if it's any comfort, I have no time for Clarkson in most respects, although he did make a very moving documentary about his father-in-law's exploits at Arnhem, for which he won the VC although Clarkson didn't even know that until the chap was dead. But you really ought to lighten up a bit. Outrage on behalf of someone else is rarely appealing. I presume we're still allowed to make jokes about Yorkshiremen or Scots or Londoners or Welsh or whatever. Why not about someone from a different race? Surely we should treat everybody the same? I used to enjoy a comedy series about 20 years ago ( I can't remember the name) where the Asian cast often made fun of the English. I particularly remember one sketch where they were eating in an English restaurant and asked for everything to be as bland as possible - mashed potato, cauliflower etc - mocking the habit of some English people of going to an Indian restaurant and asking for the hottest dish, as some kind of challenge. They also asked the waiter's name and when he said 'Jonathan' they said "Oh that's too difficult, we'll call you Sanjay (or something)", again mocking the English. Very funny. It's a sad world if we can't have a laugh. Goodness Gracious Me I think you mean? |
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 0:14:12 GMT
Jenrick appointed as Shadow Justice Secretary. Obviius questions: is it now Tory policy to leave the ECHR or does Jenrick mo longer support the policy he ran on? Does it matter? It will be at least 5 years before the Tories are back (and probably longer, if ever). |
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 0:31:09 GMT
I don’t think that is right at all. I have no doubt whatsoever that the great majority of people have the intellectual capacity to work at degree level. And it is not just in their interests but our collective interests that they should be encouraged and enabled to do so. Educational ideas and teaching/learning methods have improved vastly since the seventies as have technologies and access to knowledge. And it is perhaps the last point that is most important. Now that the world’s knowledge is available at most people’s fingertips, it is becoming vitally important that people develop the critical skills and understanding that enable them to use it properly and effectively. A Level grades are now massively inflated compared with those awarded until the end of the 1980s under the former Relative Marking system Many students awarded A grades today would have struggled to obtain C grades in the past, whilst those now receiving D and E grades would not have passed the exam at all. Until the late 80s 30% of A Level students failed even to gain a grade E - now the figure is under 2%. Yet these students are still invited on to 'degree' courses - though many are of the Mickey Mouse kind. Indeed. I read an article probably 20 years ago which showed an A-level maths question which had been an O-level 20 years before that. It concerns me that although youngsters have and need other skills today, a reduction in basic maths and literacy will mean a greater reliance on AI and conventional internet skills in the future. Without sufficient education to question or analyse the computer's analysis we will end up being effectively controlled by algorithms, which ultimately means being controlled by mega-corporations. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 0:48:00 GMT
Let's wait and see how the Tory ship sails, but I suspect it's going to be a long struggle for them trying to dance their political jig to two tunes (Reform Vs Moderate politics). Farage has said that the main target is now Labour voters. It will interesting to see how that plays out. Assuming there is no implosion in the Reform party, the result of next GE could be very hard to predict. |
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Post by RAF on Nov 5, 2024 1:05:34 GMT
Atlas Intel's final polls look moderately good for Trump but they have had Trump ahead for some time.
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Post by moby on Nov 5, 2024 5:32:38 GMT
At first it seems odd for Badenoch to appoint someone who has 'a whiff of impropriety' as Justice Secretary and then you realise the pool she was fishing in is pretty small.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2024 5:52:15 GMT
moby With fewer MP's than the Tories the lib dems managed to find someone far more suited as justice spokesperson. Josh Babarinde After graduation, Babarinde won a place on the social enterprise fellowship Year .During this time he volunteered as a youth worker in East London, working with young people to find an alternative path to crime and gang violence. Inspired by this experience he founded Cracked It, a social enterprise offering smart phone repair services provided by youth at risk and young ex-offenders. Cracked It was the recipient of Social Enterprise of the Year awards by both the Centre for Social Justice and the Evening Standard. Babarinde is just 31 but has won numerous accolades for his social entrepreneurship achievements, In 2019, he was named in the Forbes 30 Under 30 list of social entrepreneurs.Babarinde went on to work as Head of Learning and Innovation at the School for Social Entrepreneurs in 2020. He was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2020 Birthday Honours for his services to criminal justice, social enterprise and the economy He's never painted over murals in a detention centre designed to make traumatised children feel a little less frightened or advocated joining Russia and Belarus outside of the ECHR
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 5, 2024 6:08:37 GMT
First results in!
New Hampshire - Dixville Notch Presidential Results:
Harris: 3
Trump: 3
(PS those aren't electoral college votes they are single person votes, the total electorate is 6!)
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2024 6:11:06 GMT
neilj Since the 1960’s, voters in Dixville Notch, located close to the border with Canada, have gathered just after midnight to cast their ballots. Votes are then counted and results announced – hours before other states even open their polls. According to CNN, four Republicans and two undeclared voters participated took part in the vote just after midnight on Tuesday.
Trump declares the election rigged.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 5, 2024 6:27:22 GMT
Nate Silver's model
Percentage winning chance
Harris 50.015%
Trump 49.985%)
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2024 6:31:07 GMT
Silver
Producing a report that shows he's right whatever the result!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 5, 2024 6:38:28 GMT
may I ask what empirical evidence you have to support them? A levels were designed as the entry exam for university places, and so were pitched to allow only enough passes to fill the available places. There are now far more university places and those given high scores has been adjusted accordingly. Although many more nowadays take A levels, this was always approximatley decided by only the most academically able doing A levels at all. Sure, this biased towards grammar school kids being entered by default and secondary modern not, but I also read an interesting study attacking the 11+ exam, which however concluded it was effective in separating people by academic ability. It was posted on here (or the previous incarnation). So the pre-screening would on the whole have been effective in that only the more able took the exam and we should therefore conclude their results would all have been in the lower grades or flat fails had they done so. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 5, 2024 6:42:01 GMT
Wow did you miss the bungs Starmer and some of his cabinet received Yes, I did. Or at least, there is no evidence they have done anything different to all the politicians before them, or anything against the rules. Rather, what they actually seem to have done is draw this to the attention of the relevant registers for the first time. And are being attacked for doing so. An irony they are being criticised for being honest, but I guess the tories will be upset they can no longer get similar traitional perks. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 5, 2024 6:51:25 GMT
Another poll in Iowa puts Trump up 8%, same as in 2020. The poll was from a reputable pollster but sponsored by a right wing campaigner who it has emerged also tried to persuade the polling not to publish or to re-weight to bring the lead up. The polling company refused to agree to this, but it's a glimpse into how parts of the US polling industry works. Parts? Pollsters will do what they are paid to do. There are legitimate tweaks in methodology which might boost chances, and then illegitimate tweaks so extreme as to be unreasonable. I seem to recall our own yougov has in the past run series of political polls for different organisations which has systematic biases between them, presumably because of exactly how they were conducted. And then we see how different companies have different 'house effects' because of how they have chosen to operate them. |
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 6:59:38 GMT
Danny - "Parts? Pollsters will do what they are paid to do." No they won't. In this case, the poll was commissioned as a quick poll after the release of the shock NV poll showing Harris with a lead and after the polling company (Socal) said they had finished polling. The client was a well known right wing campaigner. The company - a reputable pollster - published the numbers after taking the unusual step of publishing messages between the commissioning agent and themselves in which he asked them to manipulate the poll via weighting (and to not publish the results) and they refused, messages they also published. So no, they don't all do what they are asked to do. In this case, I'm assuming their contract gave them sole rights to publish, not the person who paid them.
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 7:02:25 GMT
Not a great omen from Dixville Notch. In 2020 it was Biden 5-0, in 2016 it was Clinton 4-2 + 2 others.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 5, 2024 7:05:02 GMT
graham The sole function of ‘relative’ marking was to allocate people to different grades and ranks, a highly expensive selection process. Actual learning and development was incidental. The absurdity of this was unsustainable and in the eighties it gave way to criterion-refenced marking. Can you explain why you think this was unsustainable? The old system was designed to grade all entrants to the exams in order, awarding an A to the top 10%. So anyone knew these were the best 10% of candidates, at a time maybe only 15% of pupils entered, so they were the top 1-2% academcially in the country. It wasnt a test of knowledge so much as ability. While this was firstly a ranking and only secondarily a knowledge test, other information such as universities complaining students now need remedial classes, suggests it was also effective as a pure knowledge test. As you would expect in an open examination where to get an A you needed to be better than 90% of the other candidates without having any certainty what level was good enough. Suppose at the olympics instead of giving gold to whoever came first, you gve a gold to everyone who finished the race in under 1 minute? Would that be better? I really dont think so. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2024 7:07:25 GMT
alecTheir electorate appears to have shrunk to 6. Well done on extrapolating a bad result when the numbers reveal at least 25% of the registered republicans must have voted for Harris😋
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 7:12:17 GMT
Picking up a few Republican commentators suggesting that late deciders are breaking heavily for Harris. One noted (and respected) Arizona commentator thinks that Trump will win the state, but by a narrow 1.2%, which I think is below many expectations. It seems a similar story elsewhere, where early concerns among Democrats about early voting numbers has been displaced by jitteriness in the Republican camp about these late deciders. Everyone seems very edgy.
Notable also that several predictions now show Trump winning, Republican flipping the Senate but Democrats flipping the house. I didn't think the House race was so close.
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 7:13:59 GMT
@stee - all a bit of fun, but that's an interesting point. I suspect that dynamic might end up the feature of the election. Harris has been working very hard to persuade Republicans to switch. Only take one or two switchers in a hundred for a significant impact when it's this close.
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