4 July 2024 : General Election - The Results

[mercian]

Last post tonight (unless there's something in the next few minutes that requires rebuttal) 😁.

Having starting off by just keeping half an eye on the US election, and mainly because of the discussion on here, I've been sucked down the Youtube rabbit-hole of US political videos.
Apart from being weirdly fascinated by Trump's bizarre behaviour and statements, I've been very impressed by Tim Walz. He's a very good apparently extempore speaker and more importantly has had a lot of experience of the real world. He was in the army and then a teacher and sports coach (They sometimes call him Coach Walz) and seems a very down-to-earth and sensible chap. A shame he's not the Democrat candidate, though I'm sure he will make an able deputy.
I wish we had a few like him in our Parliament. I expect there are a few, but whereas back in the day a lot of Tories were ex- or current businessmen and Labour were often ex-Trade Union officials or academics and had done a real job first, a lot now seem to have always been professional politicians. They get a PPE from Oxford, become a Spad, than some sort of secretary and are given a safe seat at some point (especially if you've got a relative in the party in the case of Labour - e.g.Stephen Kinnock).
Starmer and Badenoch did both have careers before politics, but the only horny-handed son of toil that I'm aware of is Lee Anderson. 10 years a miner. I'm sure there must be others.

[bardin1]

Nov 3, 2024 23:16:07 GMT mercian said:

Last post tonight (unless there's something in the next few minutes that requires rebuttal) 😁.

Having starting off by just keeping half an eye on the US election, and mainly because of the discussion on here, I've been sucked down the Youtube rabbit-hole of US political videos.
Apart from being weirdly fascinated by Trump's bizarre behaviour and statements, I've been very impressed by Tim Walz. He's a very good apparently extempore speaker and more importantly has had a lot of experience of the real world. He was in the army and then a teacher and sports coach (They sometimes call him Coach Walz) and seems a very down-to-earth and sensible chap. A shame he's not the Democrat candidate, though I'm sure he will make an able deputy.
I wish we had a few like him in our Parliament. I expect there are a few, but whereas back in the day a lot of Tories were ex- or current businessmen and Labour were often ex-Trade Union officials or academics and had done a real job first, a lot now seem to have always been professional politicians. They get a PPE from Oxford, become a Spad, than some sort of secretary and are given a safe seat at some point (especially if you've got a relative in the party in the case of Labour - e.g.Stephen Kinnock).
Starmer and Badenoch did both have careers before politics, but the only horny-handed son of toil that I'm aware of is Lee Anderson. 10 years a miner. I'm sure there must be others.

Excellent post and I couldn't agree more that having worked in some job outside politics is a healthy start for an MP and one that hardly any have. My favourite local politician when I worked in local government was our mayor, who doubled up as a care worker on  in a mental health unit. She had more common sense that the other 50 or so councillors put together

[mercian]

bardin1
Thanks. Two of my children are teachers and I advised them to do some sort of other job first, which they both did. It's a similar situation to MPs. They both look at their colleagues who went school-university-teaching and realise that they are all very naive about the real world.

My son teaches secondary school, and had one boy who didn't cause trouble but showed little interest in schoolwork. One day there was a class about careers. When he asked this boy about possibly going on to further or higher education he said he wasn't interested. Why not? My dad's a blacksmith and I'm already helping him and that's what I'll do. My son said "Fair enough" and moved on.

[Rafwan]

Angela Raynor? Mother, care worker, trade union shop steward.

[leftieliberal]

Nov 3, 2024 23:30:36 GMT mercian said:

bardin1
Thanks. Two of my children are teachers and I advised them to do some sort of other job first, which they both did. It's a similar situation to MPs. They both look at their colleagues who went school-university-teaching and realise that they are all very naive about the real world.

My son teaches secondary school, and had one boy who didn't cause trouble but showed little interest in schoolwork. One day there was a class about careers. When he asked this boy about possibly going on to further or higher education he said he wasn't interested. Why not? My dad's a blacksmith and I'm already helping him and that's what I'll do. My son said "Fair enough" and moved on.

The value of manual skills as opposed to academic skills is underrated. At my grammar school in the 1960s we had both woodworking and metalworking shops; at university as part of my physics degree I had to take a workshop course in which I made my own plumb-bob from scratch, learned to hard- and soft-solder and make (metal) dowels and screw threads. The lathe-work came in useful during my PhD when I needed to use a jeweller's lathe to make part of an instrument I was building. I suppose it helped that I am the son of a skilled tinsmith, so I already had some exposure to the craft.

[mark61]

Mercian, let me prompt your memory, Frank Hester was the major Tory Donor who said that looking at Dianne Abbot makes you 'want to hate all Black People and that she should be shot' this came to light  shortly before the last GE.  Despite this The Conservative Party including The then Prime Minister Sunak, the now leader Badenoch and the failed candidate Cleverly and former Chancellor Kwarteng or indeed any of their Cabinet colleagues did not recommend cutting ties with the odious Hester or suggest returning the donation. Indeed the Party went on to trouser another £5million from him during the Election Campaign.

You may not be aware that Dianne Abbot receives more hate mail, racist and misogynist abuse Online and directly than any other MP.

Can you explain what turns repeating a racist trope about Black People all looking the same into a Joke, is it the laughing Emoji? 

[eor]

Nov 3, 2024 7:49:20 GMT alec said:

This also might explain some of the voting patterns so far -

If accurate, it suggests early voting has significantly eaten into Republican on the day voters, theoretically substantially cutting their margin on Tuesdays in person ballots.

alec - take it back a step. 

We do know;
- The number of people that voted in Clark County Nevada in 2020
- How many of them voted Democrat
- How many of them voted Republican
- How many Democrat voters voted early vs voted on Election Day
- How many Republican voters voted early vs voted on Election Day

We don't know;
- How many people will vote in Clark County Nevada in 2024
- How many of them will vote Democrat
- How many of them will vote Republican
- How many Democrat voters will vote early vs will vote on Election Day
- How many Republican voters will vote early vs will vote on Election Day
- How many people who voted in 2020 won't vote in 2024, or which way they voted in 2020
- How many people who didn't vote in 2020 will vote in 2024, or which way they will vote in 2024

So with your work head on, tell me how anyone can look at the numbers of Democrat and Republican early voters in Clark County Nevada in 2024, and sensibly try to extrapolate with any meaning to the overall result of the 2024 election there, even with an approximation for how people intending to vote in 2024 say they voted in 2020? 

[guymonde]

Looking at Trump rally today he is claiming he will fix it. Is his role model Bob the Builder? Or Jimmy Saville who seems to be more simpatico to his approach to life?

[lens]

Nov 3, 2024 14:31:05 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Nov 3, 2024 0:34:26 GMT lens said:

................

There's a good practical case to point to, and worth reading a research paper trying to make exactly the case for using "surplus" generated electricity in a wind farm for electrolysis - cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa59457/Details

From my reading, I can't fault any of the assumptions or detail within it, but even trying hard to make a positive case it still struggles with the hydrogen viability economics in most scenarios. And there is one huge problem. A gigantic one. Not a fault of the author, but of timing. It was totally out of date almost as soon as written, because it doesn't consider the alternative of local large battery storage - something which hardly existed when the paper was being written, and that only about 4-5 years ago. (!!) Something which totally turns the economics on it's head and destroys any case for electrolysis etc that may ever have existed at all. Apart from reducing curtailment, battery smoothing may also enable a smaller (and cheaper) grid connection. It's possible hydrogen production plant may get somewhat cheaper - but that's expected to be even more the case for batteries.

I emphasise that I am **NOT** arguing against green hydrogen production per se. Quite the contrary. I hope for increasing amounts to supply industrial processes. It's the belief that it will ever be an oh so cheap process because it will be simply able to use otherwise curtailed electricity. That's just wishful thinking by those with vested commercial interests.

- No, you didn’t point to alternative things one might make, you just talked about putting the leccy into the grid, which you just did all over again

- you keep talking about using the grid, without taking into account the cost of the upgrades, or comparing with the potential revenue from selling the hydrogen instead.

- (I.e. You’re considering the benefits of the grid, and the cost of hydrogen, without considering the benefits of hydrogen, and the costs of the grid)

- Or the potential revenue from making something more lucrative than either hydrogen or putting it into the grid

- It’s not much cop focusing on the difficulty of storing liquid hydrogen, while ignoring potential alternatives like hydrides or converting it to products easier to store, as I indicated

- Batteries don’t, as you claim, “destroy the use case for hydrogen”, because you don’t have to use the hydrogen as an energy store, you could sell it and potentially make more money given projected demand

- I’m not as you seem to think, fixated on hydrogen, in fact, I have suggested other uses for the electricity besides hydrogen. Whereas you are somewhat more fixated on just the grid.

- But regardless of what you or I think, a reason for being interested in it is that the government are about to make a number of investments in green hydrogen. Partly by funding the Tory commitments, but they are going to do another round of funding for green hydrogen and carbon capture etc.

c-a-r-f-r-e-w - I don't know if you are simply not bothering to try to take in what I'm saying, or simply trolling, but I really object to being misrepresented. Let's just take your comment highlighted above. The claim re batteries was in relation to the paper I linked to. Have you read that paper? Have you even read the (brief) abstract? (I grant you the whole thing is 98 pages long, and yes - I have read the full report.) Somehow I don't think you can have? Because if you had even read the abstract you would be well aware that the detail is very far from assuming "use the hydrogen as an energy store" - and goes into depth about the most economic routes. As you don't seem to have bothered even to read the abstract, a quick quote:

"The results suggest that supplying hydrogen into the transport sector is the most economically feasible solution. The results also consider the economic feasibility of wholesale and gas grid supply."

I suggest you might at least like to read the conclusions (page 93 onwards) before making any further comment. At the time of writing, it concluded that the example site just **might** be economic under certain circumstances for hydrogen production from curtailed generation - but it's far from a clear cut scenario. It also makes some assumptions that haven't proven to be the case - eg "It was suggested that while it is feasible to produce hydrogen for the transport sector there is not currently the road transport demand although this would be closer to realization by 2024 and will develop from there." In fact, with the benefit of hindsight, we now know that the road transport demand (for hydrogen) seems farther away than ever.

In 2024, we can now look to see how the project at the heart of that paper has progressed, looking 4-5 years into the future. What is now proposed in reality? And does it follow the lines the paper suggested? What was being looked at was the Alwen Forest windfarm project. It's now reached an advanced planning stage, and the last I heard is awaiting final approval, with a decision due next year. So - have the final plans indeed gone for hydrogen and electrolysis to abate any curtailment?

And the answer is a resounding **NO**. You can see the final detailed proposal at alwenforestwindfarm.co.uk/ No electrolysis. No hydrogen. But integral to the plans is a BESS together with the grid connection. I'm informed that the choice between a BESS and hydrogen production wasn't even close. Surprise, surprise. Batteries don't "destroy the use case for hydrogen" in any global way - but they DO largely help destroy the case for it as an alternative to curtailment. Alwen Forest is just a single example of a wider truism.

Regarding your last paragraph above, then again, you seem to simply disregard my previous closing comments. Try reading them again. As should be totally obvious, I'm certainly not arguing against green hydrogen per se, and yes, am totally aware of the government investments. But such are NOT the same as any argument about production (cheaply) from otherwise curtailed electricity. 

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 18:07:21 GMT steve said:

Latest from the trump fascist travelling circus , trump basically says it's fine to shoot the press!

You forget this is a country which already in the past rose up to throw off its lawful rulers because it didnt like the taxes they imposed?

[moby]

Nov 3, 2024 22:01:35 GMT colin said:

Nov 3, 2024 21:50:43 GMT RAF said:

The sentiment being expressed is that if you have a party with a membership that is largely compromised of Right-wing populists and warm towards Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson, and that cohort decides to elect as their leader Kemi Bsdenoch, what does that say about Kemi Badenoch?

The sentiment being expressed is that people with black skin have no right being Conservatives because they all white supremacists.


Marcus Garvey, Jamaican black nationalist leader in the 1920s coined a phrase for it-being an "Uncle Tom" . 

It is a racist insult addressed by black people to black people who consort with whites.

Actually it's a bit more complicated than that:-
This book looks at the novel from which the trope originated: Stowe's novel 'Uncle Toms Cabin':-

theconversation.com/how-uncle-tom-still-impacts-racial-politics-152201
Published nearly 170 years ago, Uncle Tom’s Cabin by Harriet Beecher Stowe had a profound impact on American slavery. But Uncle Tom is not a relic from the 19th century: this complex figure still has a hold over Black politics. In fact, the Uncle Tom stereotype is quite possibly the most resilient figure in American history. He has survived pandemics, lived through 33 presidents (including President Joe Biden), and remains the most recognizable Black character in history.

'The trope persists, says Thompson, because it’s never left the psyche of the western world. “The idea of the Black person who you like, who's really nice, who is there to just stay in their place – that notion has always been appealing to the dominant culture, because the opposite of that means disruption of institutions, means protests, means fighting back, means demanding change. 

In Uncle, Thompson covers some major cultural figures who members of the Black community have maligned by calling Uncle Tom, including Jackie Robinson, Former President Barack Obama, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and football player and actor O.J. Simpson, on which Thompson spends a great deal of time. 

“At one point O.J. said,’I’m not Black, I’m O.J.,’ at a time when other Black athletes were speaking out about civil injustices and the Vietnam War, O.J. Simpson was happy to accept his position of prestige and say nothing more,” she says. “For all intents and purposes, he was an Uncle Tom because he thought he was there to serve white culture in any way. And that is the legacy of Uncle Tom, is it about you or is it about the community?” 

Thompson says ' “Blackness in the western world as it has been articulated since our arrival in the 15th century has always been vested in this idea of us being two people: there’s the one type, and the other type, and not a lot of nuance in between.

“One of the issues of our time is a lack of consciousness. We have to fill ourselves with insight to see patterns around us. When people read my book, they will realize that there’s a Blackness that’s been created that’s outside of our reality. That’s a caricature of Blackness, and it’s outside of myself,” she says. 

Imo Dawn Butler is perpetuating a very longstanding trope but it's not the same as a racist trope such as that just expressed by mercian ..... 'they all look the same'. That trope is clearly racist as it is designed to denigrate a race or ethnicity. Dawn Butlers trope is to make assumptions about Badenoch's values and motives from her political positioning. It comes from a place of anger and frustration over how racism persists in western society. I think the very deeply felt issues behind this trope deserve better than a simplistic analysis we are likely to see in the right wing press or a chat forum dominated by white males indulging in 'whataboutery'. You could start here:-
africasacountry.com/2019/04/why-im-no-longer-talking-to-nigerians-about-race

[neilj]

colin

Re your post about Dawn Butler, my view is she was wrong to repost a tweet, even though she quickly took it down

I hope that is a straight answer to a straight question

I hope you can do the same for this one
Frank Hester made disgusting remarks about Diane Abbott. To jog your memory he said
Abbott, Britain’s longest-serving black MP, made him “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”.

Badenoch in response said
'row over Tory donor 'racist' comments is 'trivial' and party shouldn't return money'

Do you think her response is in anyway acceptable for an MP, let alone the leader of a party
What consequences should there be for her
I know you take a tough line on condoning racism, so will be interested in your answers

www.itv.com/news/2024-03-18/kemi-badenoch-says-row-over-tory-donor-racist-comments-is-trivial

[Danny]

Dyson was in the news this morning complaining about increased inheritance tax on the 35,000 acres of farmland 'they' own, where they employ 169 people. He says he is using their economy of scale to improve efficiency and break the stranglehold retailers have on the profits from farming by selling direct to the public. Dyson farming limited is a private company, one of whose directors is, er, James Dyson. A lot of the directors give their address as the company office in Cyclone way.

Dyson is reported as saying the new inheritance tax will discourage entrepreneurs investing in farming. Um. He is an engineer who made his money from technology, but has decided to diversify into farming and has bought up enough land for 150 family farms. So thats 150 families he has deprived of owning a farm. This is a private company, so it may well be Dyson personally owns quite a lot of it, and had been anticipating not paying much inheritance tax on it. Based on estimates flying around the ccompany land might be worth maybe £350 million? So as personal inheritance thats now a liability of £70 million?, half the standard rate.

Its lunacy for him to be complaining this tax is harming the 150 families he displaced from farms by buying up their land.

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 17:29:38 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Nearly one in six jobs advertised in the UK so far this year was listed by a company headquartered in the US, according to an analysis by LinkedIn. This was up 30pc on last year."

Would those be companies which used to be british, with operations here, which have been bought out by foreigners? So its just they still have some activities here before taking the entire company abroad?  Or while EDF is a French not US company, similar examples where the company pretty much has to operate in the UK, but now all profits go abroad?

Since Dyson stuck his head above the parapet, an interesting example of a british company still british owned, but which chose to move abroad, to Singapore. Hardly in any sense can he be described as investing in Britain.

[steve]

mercian

Other than the odious 30p Lee there are actually several high profile mps from working class backgrounds.

The most high-profile being Angela Rayner, brought up in poverty left school at 16 and worked as care worker for over 10 years.
As a coal miner Anderson was considerably better off.

[Danny]

Nov 4, 2024 0:02:40 GMT mark61 said:

You may not be aware that Dianne Abbot receives more hate mail, racist and misogynist abuse Online and directly than any other MP.

That may perhaps be because she is very high profile. First appearing regulary on tv with Portillo and Andrew Neil, then as one of the few reliable Corbyn supporters when he was leader. So a target for anyone who disliked coloured people in power, woment in power, or the left.

[steve]

mercian

The BBC report you linked to as proof of your assertion of " gangs of machete wielding Muslims " attacking a pub of course says no such thing.

It does however refer to a group of youths one of whom was carrying an offensive weapon who caused criminal damage.

"The West Midlands force said there had been at least three cases of criminal damage, one offence where someone was seen carrying an offensive weapon and one of assault."


The investigation into the motivation of the 17 year old Welsh youth, from a Christian family who horrendously attacked the children is not public knowledge.
It's difficult to see however how possession of texts relating to manufacture of chemical weapons relate to the nature of the actual attack in any way.

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 20:00:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

She also said today that she was committed to reversing VAT on private school fees thus letting the public know she is firmly on the side of the 6% of families wealthy enough to afford private education and hostile to the 94%.

6% of regstered voters is about 3 million people. So assuming all were motivated enough by this to vote, and its a siginificant sum they are losing as well as attacking the whole principle of whether private education should be permitted, approaching half the people who voted con at all, 1/3 the number who voted labour. Without those three million con would have been annihilated.

Sounds like a good solid conservative rallying cry.  Something the Blair government was well aware of and steered well clear of attacking.  I see why labour chose to do this. They knew perfectly well it would not be possible to inject money into state education to make a significant difference. This purported to raise some extra money for education, whereas Blair was able topromise actual money.  But this is like EU membership, its a matter of principle,  and it has created a cause for con.

Similarly, they are trying to create a cause around farmers being charged inheritance tax. Once again farmers are more likely to be natural con voters,  even though they have been wholly shafted over brexit and will lose their farm subsidies having been tricked into supporting that.  But its honestly absurd that there should be a national outcry against quite a modest inheritance charge on wealthy landowners.  Something which anyway seems to have become a tax dodge to evade inheritance tax by buying up farms. Which in itself might explain a surge in land prices, actually excluding newcomers from ever being able to buy farms.  They are all going to the likes of Dyson and Clarkson.

[neilj]

Interesting piece in Farmer’s Weekly eight years ago asking whether inheritance tax breaks were the reason why billionaire James Dyson was buying up thousands of acres, some of which had probably been worked by local food producers who’d been there for generations
Also suggests rich people buying up farm land for inheritance tax purposes is a reason for increasing land prices
www.fwi.co.uk/business/prime-lincs-farmland-snapped-up-by-billionaire-dyson

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 20:26:47 GMT reggieside said:

"many people" did not think the restrictions were overblown and the public owerwhelmingly complied with them - its was only entiteld selfish fucks like johnsons who flouted them - and his case it this was an even worse behavour as he was responsible for imposing  them on everyone else. Disgusting behavour from a digusting human being.  

If people are happy doing something voluntarily, you have to ask why its necessary to make it compulsory. Always remember the benefits of lockdown were only the marginal difference between what would have happened anyway with voluntary self isolation and compulsory isolation. And we dont really know how many people ignored the rules, obviously doing so in ways which would have evaded enforcement. I recall someone telling me that during the time we were only suposed to go out for brief exercise, he spent all the time on the beach. And the police didnt want to get involved. It may well be that while there was a lot of publicity about police enforcement action and people being fined, in reality they didnt do much of that at all.

[alec]

Typical story of outraged farmers here - www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/04/nail-in-the-coffin-family-farmers-respond-to-inheritance-tax-changes

All rather stupid. In the example given, a 56 yo farmer with three sons and a £5m farm says his sons won't be able to take over the farm if they need to pay £800,000 IHT.

So why doesn't the duffer:
1) Retire at 65, gifting his farm to his sons upon retirement.
2) Hope he lives until he is 72, thereby avoiding all IHT.
3) Take out a life insurance policy now, until the age of 72, with the policy calculated to cover the IHT liability.

The biggest issue here to my mind is the bad blocking by ageing farmers who cling on to farming long past he time they should have retired. If they have children to pass the farm onto, there is no reason why they should get tied up with IHT if they retire at a reasonable age and do some basic financial planning.

Instead they just choose to moan and moan, insistent that they alone deserve special consideration in a world where government's are bankrupt and sick people have to wait years for basic healthcare.

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 20:50:38 GMT alec said:

pjw1961 - "Two massive gaffs on Day 1..."

Nothing wrong with that. Shows nous and ambition. My Uncle Sid and Aunt Edna had a massive gaf. Six bedrooms and sauna, and they started from nothing, worked hard, proper working people. Nothing wrong with having a massive gaf if you've earned it, and Kemikaze's certainly earned her massive gaffs..

And the best way to earn a massive gaf was to buy it in the 60s before the prices became extortionate. Even property from the 80s now looks incredibly cheap if you chose to buy then. The baby boomers all got rich by working hard at living in their big (by modern standards) homes.

[alec]

neilj - "Also suggests rich people buying up farm land for inheritance tax purposes is a reason for increasing land prices"

Absolutely. The Clarksons and Dysons aren't the victims here, they're the profiteers that are causing part of the problem. If this IHT measure does drive play owners and tax avoiders out of the sector it will reduce prices and make life easier for real farmers and help cut food prices.

[neilj]

Nov 4, 2024 7:57:44 GMT alec said:

Typical story of outraged farmers here - www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/04/nail-in-the-coffin-family-farmers-respond-to-inheritance-tax-changes

All rather stupid. In the example given, a 56 yo farmer with three sons and a £5m farm says his sons won't be able to take over the farm if they need to pay £800,000 IHT.

So why doesn't the duffer:
1) Retire at 65, gifting his farm to his sons upon retirement.
2) Hope he lives until he is 72, thereby avoiding all IHT.
3) Take out a life insurance policy now, until the age of 72, with the policy calculated to cover the IHT liability.

The biggest issue here to my mind is the bad blocking by ageing farmers who cling on to farming long past he time they should have retired. If they have children to pass the farm onto, there is no reason why they should get tied up with IHT if they retire at a reasonable age and do some basic financial planning.

Instead they just choose to moan and moan, insistent that they alone deserve special consideration in a world where government's are bankrupt and sick people have to wait years for basic healthcare.

Especially so if he has a wife he would be able to leave around £3m tax free, so even if they paid the inheritance tax the figure to pay would be £400,000 not £800,000
Not bad on an inheritance of £5m, a lot of people would love to have that 'problem'

[Danny]

Nov 3, 2024 22:13:56 GMT eor said:

A third option that the poll is reasonably accurate but so are the others seems even less likely than either of the above - Iowa doesn't exist in the kind of bubble that say Utah does, if there is a really major shift in Iowa then it is coming from one or likely more than one demographic group, and the factors causing that shift will spill over at least to the demographically contiguous populations in many other states.

Put more specifically, anything that can make such a huge impact on the overall outcome in Iowa kinda *has* to show up in Wisconsin and Michigan at the least, and anything that gives the kind of movement the Selzer poll is finding in Iowa (without a significant swing by Independents!) ought to be showing up everywhere and giving the kind of map that steve linked to earlier. 

Its perfectly possible all the pollsters are wrong. This happens if there is a major shift in public attitude, it happened in the UK when brexit became the big issue, traditional party loyalty went out the windown, it overrode other issues. Pollsters rely upon people's behaviour being predictable, so if it stops being so their polling will be wrong, to the extent their assumptions have become wrong.

If I was a clever pollster, I might warn my clients that despite my best efforts, there was a possibility the polling is all wrong because of certain built in asumptions. So, it could be possible the trump campaign has long been warned there is a sytemic reason why they might lose, and hence they have prepared the position of attacking the system when it turns out the pollsters were wrong and they loose badly.

[Danny]

Nov 4, 2024 7:57:44 GMT alec said:

Typical story of outraged farmers here - www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/04/nail-in-the-coffin-family-farmers-respond-to-inheritance-tax-changes

All rather stupid. In the example given, a 56 yo farmer with three sons and a £5m farm says his sons won't be able to take over the farm if they need to pay £800,000 IHT.

So why doesn't the duffer:
1) Retire at 65, gifting his farm to his sons upon retirement.
2) Hope he lives until he is 72, thereby avoiding all IHT.
3) Take out a life insurance policy now, until the age of 72, with the policy calculated to cover the IHT liability.

The biggest issue here to my mind is the bad blocking by ageing farmers who cling on to farming long past he time they should have retired. If they have children to pass the farm onto, there is no reason why they should get tied up with IHT if they retire at a reasonable age and do some basic financial planning.

Instead they just choose to moan and moan, insistent that they alone deserve special consideration in a world where government's are bankrupt and sick people have to wait years for basic healthcare.

It seems likely the truth here is not at all about family farms, which also have the problem what do you do with a small farm capable of supporting just one family if you have more than one child? Give it all to one child, disinherit the others?  But its about seriously rich people with a whole lot of land. The family farm is the example with some pulling power, its like advertising for aid with pictures of dead childen.

[colin]

Nov 4, 2024 6:44:51 GMT neilj said:

colin

Re your post about Dawn Butler, my view is she was wrong to repost a tweet, even though she quickly took it down

I hope that is a straight answer to a straight question

I hope you can do the same for this one
Frank Hester made disgusting remarks about Diane Abbott. To jog your memory he said
Abbott, Britain’s longest-serving black MP, made him “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”.

Badenoch in response said
'row over Tory donor 'racist' comments is 'trivial' and party shouldn't return money'

Do you think her response is in anyway acceptable for an MP, let alone the leader of a party
What consequences should there be for her
I know you take a tough line on condoning racism, so will be interested in your answers

www.itv.com/news/2024-03-18/kemi-badenoch-says-row-over-tory-donor-racist-comments-is-trivial

Thanks.

Looking at Wiki on the Hester quote , BBC expressed some doubt about its accurate reporting-so not inclined to try find the whole quote.

He sounds like a nasty person with racist views though.

Wiki says "The Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and then the prime minister Rishi Sunak separately described Hester's alleged comments as "racist" although Sunak declined to return Hester's political donations.[2"

What I would like to see is Butler and Badenoch speak for themselves in a public debate on how they both think a multi ethnic society with plurality of political representation is best promoted.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Nov 4, 2024 6:53:18 GMT Danny said:

Nov 3, 2024 17:29:38 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Nearly one in six jobs advertised in the UK so far this year was listed by a company headquartered in the US, according to an analysis by LinkedIn. This was up 30pc on last year."

Would those be companies which used to be british, with operations here, which have been bought out by foreigners? So its just they still have some activities here before taking the entire company abroad?  Or while EDF is a French not US company, similar examples where the company pretty much has to operate in the UK, but now all profits go abroad?

Since Dyson stuck his head above the parapet, an interesting example of a british company still british owned, but which chose to move abroad, to Singapore. Hardly in any sense can he be described as investing in Britain.

Don’t know what proportion used to be British companies. But the number is 30 percent up on part year, a rather rapid increase. Has the number of Brit companies brimg bought out by the US increased that fast?

[Danny]

Nov 4, 2024 8:41:16 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Don’t know what proportion used to be British companies. But the number is 30 percent up on part year, a rather rapid increase. Has the number of Brit companies brimg bought out by the US increased that fast?

ARM recently moved to the US didnt it? Isnt there supposed to be a flight of UK registered companies moving to the US stock exchange? Similarly, what possible reason wuld there be for foreign companies to suddenly increase their employees in the UK over the last year?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Nov 3, 2024 22:53:15 GMT mercian said:

Nov 3, 2024 22:38:20 GMT eor said:

I think that's true and would add that the impact of swings would be (can't remember the word from waveforms in physics, smothered?)  

Dampened?

You can use damping when designing synth sounds too, which are also concerned with waveforms. Finally have linked synths to polling…

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