Danny
Member
Posts: 10,364
|
Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 16:56:39 GMT
I'd like to see a lot more involvement for the likes of the RSPB and Woodland Trust in agri-environment schemes and an encouragement for landscape scale multi-farm delivery rather than farm by farm. Central Government is seldom effective in delivering much beyond bureaucracy. Central government is enormously effective if it wants to be. Certainly conservatives never are, because they have a vested interest in inefficient government, and just presided over the biggest ripoff of the taxpayer in the form of HS2 for some time. Though of course, they also made a mint from covid, which example wasnt their invention. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 3, 2024 17:29:38 GMT
Enjoying the CAP discussion, well-outside my usual realm! Meanwhile, The Telegraph on the phenomenon of “Britshoring”
“Decades ago, there was a rush to outsource call centres and factory jobs to countries such as India and Vietnam where labour was far cheaper. Now US companies are increasingly outsourcing to Britain.
Nearly one in six jobs advertised in the UK so far this year was listed by a company headquartered in the US, according to an analysis by LinkedIn. This was up 30pc on last year.
Cheaper salaries and an advantageous time zone make the UK a prime target for US companies, many of which are more open to remote working in the wake of the pandemic. Stronger economic growth is also allowing US companies to poach the best talent, outbidding weaker British companies.”
“The flood of money and booming services exports to the US have become a lifeline for the British economy, which is grappling with sluggish growth and anaemic levels of overall investment.
But the trend itself is also a warning sign.
Recruiters say it is symptomatic of Britain’s own hiring drought. In the global war for talent, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI, US companies are taking some of Britain’s best talent away because they are the ones that are expanding more aggressively.
It is these US companies that are reaping the rewards from our best minds, with profits banked in New York or California.
Many home-grown companies are struggling to compete. What is a short-term cash injection could take a longer-term toll on British innovation, leaving the country even more stuck in the mud on growth and productivity.”
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,364
|
Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 17:33:40 GMT
So - a variation on All Men Are Rapists from Danny Most Men Are Criminals Conside the mathematics. If 1/3 of men have a criminal record (thats uk, but probably similar in US), why would they look down on Trump for being accused of crime? If you get the support of 1/3 of the population, thats likely a win in any modern two party election. Also interestingly, there are far more male criminals than female, and Trump support is much stronger amongst men than women. While the detail here is a bit handwaving, the principle is very likely sound and explains why one group are horrified he should even be being considered, and another group totally dont care, or maybe even see this as a plus. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Nov 3, 2024 17:35:10 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,641
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 18:05:40 GMT
Danny
There's a difference in having a conviction for a minor drugs offence , petty theft or a minor altercation and being an adjudicated rapist with 22 other plausible allegations of sexual predatory behaviour.
Maybe you don't know enough people with form to understand the difference.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,641
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 18:07:21 GMT
Latest from the trump fascist travelling circus , trump basically says it's fine to shoot the press!
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,392
|
Post by neilj on Nov 3, 2024 18:15:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by colin on Nov 3, 2024 18:20:59 GMT
The King of Spain has sure got some cojones. He must have known he would get that reaction from people abandoned by the authorities to their awful fate.
|
|
|
|
Post by alberto on Nov 3, 2024 18:43:10 GMT
Enjoying the CAP discussion, well-outside my usual realm! Meanwhile, The Telegraph on the phenomenon of “Britshoring” “ Decades ago, there was a rush to outsource call centres and factory jobs to countries such as India and Vietnam where labour was far cheaper. Now US companies are increasingly outsourcing to Britain.
Nearly one in six jobs advertised in the UK so far this year was listed by a company headquartered in the US, according to an analysis by LinkedIn. This was up 30pc on last year.
Cheaper salaries and an advantageous time zone make the UK a prime target for US companies, many of which are more open to remote working in the wake of the pandemic. Stronger economic growth is also allowing US companies to poach the best talent, outbidding weaker British companies.”
“The flood of money and booming services exports to the US have become a lifeline for the British economy, which is grappling with sluggish growth and anaemic levels of overall investment.
But the trend itself is also a warning sign.
Recruiters say it is symptomatic of Britain’s own hiring drought. In the global war for talent, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI, US companies are taking some of Britain’s best talent away because they are the ones that are expanding more aggressively.
It is these US companies that are reaping the rewards from our best minds, with profits banked in New York or California.
Many home-grown companies are struggling to compete. What is a short-term cash injection could take a longer-term toll on British innovation, leaving the country even more stuck in the mud on growth and productivity.”
This seems to be part of a much wider trend. There are some astonishing takeaways from this interview.
|
|
|
|
Post by turk on Nov 3, 2024 20:00:29 GMT
NeilJ
When she said overblown what she said they Tories under Johnson shouldn’t have introduced what many thought were totally unnecessary penalties for people breaking the Covid rules. And it was wrong to fine those people that did. I think your find there I were a great many people who agreed with those sentiments.
She also said Johnson in bringing in those penalties had let himself open to attack from his political enemies which of course happened in the cake fiasco and the subsequent findings of what we now know as the very politically biased Sue Gray who reaped her rather temporarily reward from a grateful Starmer afterwards.
Both of which are perfectly true statements as was her claim that Johnson being very popular in the Country before and at the start of Covid.
Far from being the gift that keeps giving to Labour I think she is going to give Starmer and the Labour Party a very hard time over the next four years.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 3, 2024 20:00:42 GMT
She also said today that she was committed to reversing VAT on private school fees thus letting the public know she is firmly on the side of the 6% of families wealthy enough to afford private education and hostile to the 94%. Two massive gaffes on Day 1 of her leadership. Completely out or touch and has learnt nothing from the Tory debacle. |
|
|
|
Post by laszlo4new on Nov 3, 2024 20:06:22 GMT
She also said today that she was committed to reversing VAT on private school fees thus letting the public know she is firmly on the side of the 6% of families wealthy enough to afford private education and hostile to the 94%. Two massive gaffs on Day 1 of her leadership. Completely out or touch and has learnt nothing from the Tory debacle. And at least she read the comments here and appointed their chief whip. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,392
|
Post by neilj on Nov 3, 2024 20:18:12 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by reggieside on Nov 3, 2024 20:26:47 GMT
NeilJ When she said overblown what she said they Tories under Johnson shouldn’t have introduced what many thought were totally unnecessary penalties for people breaking the Covid rules. And it was wrong to fine those people that did. I think your find there I were a great many people who agreed with those sentiments. She also said Johnson in bringing in those penalties had let himself open to attack from his political enemies which of course happened in the cake fiasco and the subsequent findings of what we now know as the very politically biased Sue Gray who reaped her rather temporarily reward from a grateful Starmer afterwards. Both of which are perfectly true statements as was her claim that Johnson being very popular in the Country before and at the start of Covid. Far from being the gift that keeps giving to Labour I think she is going to give Starmer and the Labour Party a very hard time over the next four years. "many people" did not think the restrcitions were overblown and the public owerwhelmingly complied with them - its was only entiteld selfish fucks like johnsons who flouted them - and his case it this was an even worse behavour as he was responsible for imposing them on everyone else. Disgusting behavour from a digusting human being. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 20:50:38 GMT
pjw1961 - "Two massive gaffs on Day 1..." Nothing wrong with that. Shows nous and ambition. My Uncle Sid and Aunt Edna had a massive gaf. Six bedrooms and sauna, and they started from nothing, worked hard, proper working people. Nothing wrong with having a massive gaf if you've earned it, and Kemikaze's certainly earned her massive gaffs. Did I ever tell you I had that Ian Hislop in the back of my cab once....? {OK, that's enough}.
|
|
|
|
Post by colin on Nov 3, 2024 21:29:20 GMT
And at least she read the comments here and appointed their chief whip. And speaking of whips :- "Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure to remove the whip from Labour MP Dawn Butler over a post she shared following the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the opposition, accusing the new Conservative leader of “white supremacy in blackface.” Dawn Butler, the MP for Brent East, has since deleted the post. The MP had retweeted a post by Nels Abbey, a British-Nigerian author, which described Badenoch as being part of the “black collaborator class.”" inews UKPR2 chorus of outraged protest at such racist behaviour ? Thought not. |
|
|
|
Post by colin on Nov 3, 2024 21:34:52 GMT
" Mr Kwarteng said the comments were “really hateful”.
“On a personal level I’ve always got on with her, but her race-baiting is completely crazy,” he said. “And you can imagine that if Kemi had lost, she’d have said exactly the same thing. She’d have said ‘of course Kemi lost, because the Tories are racist and Britain is racist’... In their logic, they put everything through the prism of race-baiting and divisiveness.
“I genuinely think that given what she said, she should have the whip removed from her. There should be some discipline and some disciplinary measure against this kind of really hateful divisiveness.”
Rupa Huq, another Labour MP, was suspended from the party in 2022 after saying Mr Kwarteng was “superficially black”. She regained the whip six months later after apologising for her comments and undergoing anti-racism training
Mr Kwarteng added: “I think this in a way what Dawn has said is worse, because she’s accusing Kemi, unbelievably, of being a front for white supremacy. Everything that happens, they try to put it through the same channel, regardless of the circumstances.”
DT
|
|
|
|
Post by colin on Nov 3, 2024 21:37:21 GMT
"Labour sources noted the post was quickly taken down by Ms Butler and pointed to Sir Keir saying that Mrs Badenoch becoming the first black leader of a British party was “a proud moment for our country”"
DT
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Nov 3, 2024 21:37:26 GMT
And at least she read the comments here and appointed their chief whip. And speaking of whips :- "Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure to remove the whip from Labour MP Dawn Butler over a post she shared following the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the opposition, accusing the new Conservative leader of “white supremacy in blackface.” Dawn Butler, the MP for Brent East, has since deleted the post. The MP had retweeted a post by Nels Abbey, a British-Nigerian author, which described Badenoch as being part of the “black collaborator class.”" inews UKPR2 chorus of outraged protest at such racist behaviour ? Thought not. Am I right in thinking that Dawn Butler is the one who's even stupider and more anti-British than Diane Abbot? They all look the same to me. 😁 |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Nov 3, 2024 21:50:43 GMT
And speaking of whips :- "Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure to remove the whip from Labour MP Dawn Butler over a post she shared following the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the opposition, accusing the new Conservative leader of “white supremacy in blackface.” Dawn Butler, the MP for Brent East, has since deleted the post. The MP had retweeted a post by Nels Abbey, a British-Nigerian author, which described Badenoch as being part of the “black collaborator class.”" inews UKPR2 chorus of outraged protest at such racist behaviour ? Thought not. Am I right in thinking that Dawn Butler is the one who's even stupider and more anti-British than Diane Abbot? They all look the same to me. 😁 Neither are stupid or "anti-British". The sentiment being expressed is that if you have a party with a membership that is largely compromised of Right-wing populists and warm towards Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson, and that cohort decides to elect as their leader Kemi Bsdenoch, what does that say about Kemi Badenoch? Let's add to that what we know about Kemi Badenoch: - she first came to prominence when being appointed to head a panel into finding that the UK was not institutionally racist or structurally racist. - She played down Frank Hester's comments about Dinae Abbott. - she's on record as saying the Tories should prioritise appealing to Reform voters - she played down the riots and talked of two tier policing. I wouldn't use the term White Supremecist to describe Kemi Badenoch, but all of the above sentiments fall squarely into line with the enthno-nationist populist Right. |
|
|
|
Post by colin on Nov 3, 2024 22:01:35 GMT
The sentiment being expressed is that if you have a party with a membership that is largely compromised of Right-wing populists and warm towards Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson, and that cohort decides to elect as their leader Kemi Bsdenoch, what does that say about Kemi Badenoch? The sentiment being expressed is that people with black skin have no right being Conservatives because they all white supremacists. Marcus Garvey, Jamaican black nationalist leader in the 1920s coined a phrase for it-being an "Uncle Tom" . It is a racist insult addressed by black people to black people who consort with whites. |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Nov 3, 2024 22:10:54 GMT
The King of Spain has sure got some cojones. He must have known he would get that reaction from people abandoned by the authorities to their awful fate. Royalty going where politicians fear to tread; a good argument against Republicans (and not only in the US). |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 3, 2024 22:13:56 GMT
I was getting excited but worth pointing out that Iowa is only 6 EC votes so to get back to being exciting we'd have to assume that "gold standard" polling can never be wrong (which we know is not true) and then to extrapolate some sort of meaning onto other states, either currently swing or in other states that have been missed. - of course any poll can be wrong, and you're quite right about the scale of extrapolation required for this to have a major impact. In terms of the scale of erroneous polling it would imply by so many companies across different states and markets, it's a colossal leap. The reason I referenced the "gold standard" bit was cos unlike pretty much any other single poll, this one was going to be taken seriously for at least the chance that it might be right and everyone else be wrong. From a purely polling perspective, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that there are now two possibilities; 1. The most consistently excellent and highly respected pollster in the industry has just trashed their reputation for unerring accuracy, albeit whilst increasing people's respect by having the guts to publish such a startling poll this close to the election 2. This poll is close to right, and the US polling industry is putting its stuff into a cardboard box on Wednesday morning and going home A third option that the poll is reasonably accurate but so are the others seems even less likely than either of the above - Iowa doesn't exist in the kind of bubble that say Utah does, if there is a really major shift in Iowa then it is coming from one or likely more than one demographic group, and the factors causing that shift will spill over at least to the demographically contiguous populations in many other states. Put more specifically, anything that can make such a huge impact on the overall outcome in Iowa kinda *has* to show up in Wisconsin and Michigan at the least, and anything that gives the kind of movement the Selzer poll is finding in Iowa (without a significant swing by Independents!) ought to be showing up everywhere and giving the kind of map that steve linked to earlier. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 22:23:19 GMT
colin - "UKPR2 chorus of outraged protest at such racist behaviour ?" Not really following the news at the moment, but yep, I'm pretty outraged by it.
|
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Nov 3, 2024 22:27:57 GMT
The sentiment being expressed is that people with black skin have no right being Conservatives because they all white supremacists. Marcus Garvey, Jamaican black nationalist leader in the 1920s coined a phrase for it-being an "Uncle Tom" . It is a racist insult addressed by black people to black people who consort with whites. Meanwhile in The Guardian, "senior Labour MPs" are commenting on Labour's lack of black staff members at the centre of government. Senior Labour MPs have expressed their frustration at the lack of black representation in No 10 as the Conservatives elected Kemi Badenoch as their new leader.
Labour sources said the WhatsApp group for Labour MPs of colour contained some furious messages from those who believe the party is not doing enough to represent black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups at the top of government.
One senior Labour frontbencher said it was a “serious embarrassment and a blind spot in No 10” that there were no senior black staff members at the very centre of a Labour government, when the Conservatives have elected a black woman as their leader.
They said there were a few people of colour among senior Downing Street staffers, including the deputy chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and the policy adviser Rav Athwal, but they were struggling to think of any senior black advisers in Starmer’s team.
They said Labour was “nowhere near electing a woman leader or a black leader but both is totally unthinkable at the moment”.
There is also frustration that there is no race relations adviser in No 10 at the moment – in contrast to under some Conservative administrations. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 3, 2024 22:38:20 GMT
Places like Virginia, New Jersey and New Hampshire have moved around a lot more - although I concede they get polled a lot less than Pennsylvania which increases the risk of a single poll getting excessive attention. I think that's true and would add that the impact of swings would be (can't remember the word from waveforms in physics, smothered?) to an extent in places like Pennsylvania by the much larger volume and probably duration of campaigning. With the levels of saturation the swing states have had, there are likely to be fewer undecided people, fewer people yet to tune in to the election, and fewer people prone to being persuaded by the sudden salience of a particular national issue because unlike much of the rest of the country the arguments behind it have probably been being flung at them for weeks or months already. So for both factors, stickier numbers in the swing states make sense - but likewise don't prove anything either way. The polls could be significantly off for various reasons, I'm just saying I don't find the lower variability to be inherently suspicious (in the same way that I don't find the small variance to the margins of incumbent Dem Senators to be a red flag either). |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Nov 3, 2024 22:47:43 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Dawn Butler is the one who's even stupider and more anti-British than Diane Abbot? They all look the same to me. 😁 Neither are stupid or "anti-British". The sentiment being expressed is that if you have a party with a membership that is largely compromised of Right-wing populists and warm towards Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson, and that cohort decides to elect as their leader Kemi Bsdenoch, what does that say about Kemi Badenoch? Let's add to that what we know about Kemi Badenoch: - she first came to prominence when being appointed to head a panel into finding that the UK was not institutionally racist or structurally racist. - She played down Frank Hester's comments about Dinae Abbott. - she's on record as saying the Tories should prioritise appealing to Reform voters - she played down the riots and talked of two tier policing. I wouldn't use the term White Supremecist to describe Kemi Badenoch, but all of the above sentiments fall squarely into line with the enthno-nationist populist Right. Well first of all it was a joke. Secondly, I never even mentioned Badenoch, and have said on here that if she's still leader at the next GE the Tories are more likely to lose. Some of the rest of your comments I don't understand - e.g. I have no idea who Frank Hester is (and I'm not going to look him up at this time of night). I'd like to see your evidence that the Conservative "membership that is largely compromised of Right-wing populists and warm towards Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson". I'm not a member of any party by the way. Two-tier policing is a reality in my view. On the night of the riots the police acted quickly against the rioters, quite rightly, but did nothing at the time about gangs of Muslims armed with machetes and other weapons who attacked a pub in Birmingham as one example. www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly883p5yj8oAlso, the actual murderer has only just appeared in court even though they knew who he was very quickly, and I understand that though he has been charged with terrorist offences the police still deny that it was a terrorist incident! WTF? news.sky.com/story/southport-stabbings-suspect-faces-separate-terror-charge-after-ricin-and-al-qaeda-manual-found-at-home-13243980P.S. I hope my sources are acceptable to the leftie bubble on here. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Nov 3, 2024 22:53:15 GMT
Places like Virginia, New Jersey and New Hampshire have moved around a lot more - although I concede they get polled a lot less than Pennsylvania which increases the risk of a single poll getting excessive attention. I think that's true and would add that the impact of swings would be (can't remember the word from waveforms in physics, smothered?) Dampened? |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 3, 2024 23:03:54 GMT
There's also been some movement in the betting markets over the last few days. Polymarket now have the likely chances of winning the race at: Trump 55% Harris 45% Trump had a 30% advantage about a week ago. Also here in the UK, Oddschecker have the odds for each candidate back to practically Evens: Trump 5/6 Harris 6/5 For the first time in while they also have the most likely outcome for Trump's EC votes as 240-269 (below 270). This is 11/4, and rhe shortest of all EC vote options. Yes. A number of bookies now have it as evens for Kamala (though Trump still odds on for all of them). I am very scepptical about Oddschecker after the referendum but the move to Kamala over the last couple of days has been staggering For another perspective on those numbers - with Betfair Harris had drifted down to slightly under 37% chance of winning, and had then drifted back late last week to about 40%. When the Selzer poll landed she went to about 44% in a matter of a couple of hours. If you want to phrase it in terms of a Trump "lead" that does equate to him going from close to 30% ahead to being more like 10% ahead. But the implied probability of Harris winning also never shifted from being "about 4 in 10". Put another way, no-one would be staggered or even surprised if a horse or football team or tennis player or whatever went from 7/4 to 6/5 (or vice versa) in the days before competing. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 3, 2024 23:05:25 GMT
I think that's true and would add that the impact of swings would be (can't remember the word from waveforms in physics, smothered?) Dampened? Thank you! |
|
