steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 14:17:46 GMT
"Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades"
Millions ! Well there's a thing how many millions had you in mind?
Another one who seems to think the lib dems are a semi detached section of the Labour party.
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Post by barbara on Jul 5, 2024 14:19:22 GMT
Just been reading some of hte comments on Conservative Home. They are convinced that they lost because the wets in the party let them down.
It's good news as if they don't change the leadership election process these are the people that will deliver a Suella Braverman victory - and make the length of time the Tories are out of power beyond the 10 years that's already baked in.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 14:24:26 GMT
Just been reading some of hte comments on Conservative Home. They are convinced that they lost because the wets in the party let them down. It's good news as if they don't change the leadership election process these are the people that will deliver a Suella Braverman victory - and make the length of time the Tories are out of power beyond the 10 years that's already baked in. Bizzarely Kemi Badenoch is odds on favourite. Then Tom 2 gun hat (won't happen), Priti Patel (no) then Suella. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 14:28:13 GMT
"Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades" Millions ! Well there's a thing how many millions had you in mind? Another one who seems to think the lib dems are a semi detached section of the Labour party. As a critic of FPTP talking to another critic of FPTP I think we both know where we're coming from, and so do the voters of Eastleigh, Winchester, and many other places who voted yesterday not believing Ed Davey could be Prime Minister but knowing what to do! |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 14:29:28 GMT
Bizzarely Kemi Badenoch is odds on favourite. Then Tom 2 gun hat (won't happen), Priti Patel (no) then Suella. Its crazy stuff In Hunt they have a dull but worthy guy who would bring back a lot of those who didn't vote, but no....Onwards and Downwards! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 14:35:13 GMT
Just been reading some of hte comments on Conservative Home. They are convinced that they lost because the wets in the party let them down. It's good news as if they don't change the leadership election process these are the people that will deliver a Suella Braverman victory - and make the length of time the Tories are out of power beyond the 10 years that's already baked in. Bizzarely Kemi Badenoch is odds on favourite. Then Tom 2 gun hat (won't happen), Priti Patel (no) then Suella. I hate to say it, but they could do worse than pick my MP, James Cleverly. He is, by Tory standards, a relative moderate and not actively insane. |
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Post by eotw on Jul 5, 2024 14:36:03 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter "I'm sure that amongst those who voted LD/Green the majority wanted Labour to win and form the govt. " Actually I wanted The lib dems to win but like I'm sure the large majority of green and lib dem voters my preference among the parties I didn't want to win was Labour Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades. They also know LD won't form a government. They're not stupid. I live in leafy Melksham and Devizes, am a sometimes Labour member, all times Labour supporter but leant my vote to the Liberals. My wife who is a true Scouser and would disown her children if she found out they voted Tory, also voted Liberal as did my daughter who would normally vote Green. As an aside. my daughter and her friends are thrilled that for the first time there vote made a difference - previously we were in Devizes and Marlborough with the lovely Danny Kruger as MP. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 5, 2024 14:38:09 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter "I'm sure that amongst those who voted LD/Green the majority wanted Labour to win and form the govt. " Actually I wanted The lib dems to win but like I'm sure the large majority of green and lib dem voters my preference among the parties I didn't want to win was Labour Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades. They also know LD won't form a government. They're not stupid. @sotonsaint, I agree. Naturally, there will be a tendency for LD activist and politicians to start to view and present this as primarily a vote for them rather than the success being driven by ABT sentiment (and their expressed strategy of persuading Lab voters to vote tactically for them). The lack of fire exchanged between the two parties during the GE was virtually unprecedented - and is now unlikely to continue with Lab in power. Tactically, the longer they can exploit ABT sentiment the longer they are likely to maintain the seats they have just won - but when the inevitable attacks on Labour start they risk undermining the basis on which their current success rests.
As others have mentioned, voter volatility is a key characteristic of modern politics. Parties viewing voters as 'theirs' may prove to be self-defeating and self-deceiving. While there will be much talk of multi-party politics etc, one does not now what the context for the next GE would be. There could be circumstances, such as '17, in which the electorate feels/acts as if there is a clear binary choice and the share of the vote of the two largest parties increases and the other parties find their votes squeezed. Who in '19 could have foreseen how the '24 GE would pan out? |
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 14:38:22 GMT
Bizzarely Kemi Badenoch is odds on favourite. Then Tom 2 gun hat (won't happen), Priti Patel (no) then Suella. I hate to say it, but they could do worse that pick my MP, James Cleverly. He is, by Tory standards, a relative moderate and not actively insane. The MPs will never let Braverman into the frame. It's obvious she is more a lone wolf than a team player. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 5, 2024 14:48:20 GMT
Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades. They also know LD won't form a government. They're not stupid. I live in leafy Melksham and Devizes, am a sometimes Labour member, all times Labour supporter but leant my vote to the Liberals. My wife who is a true Scouser and would disown her children if she found out they voted Tory, also voted Liberal as did my daughter who would normally vote Green. As an aside. my daughter and her friends are thrilled that for the first time there vote made a difference - previously we were in Devizes and Marlborough with the lovely Danny Kruger as MP. , I live in one of SW seats that the LD's won last night. I didn't vote tactically last night, but my husband and local friends and acquaintances who share my political labour/green leaning outlook all did! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 5, 2024 14:50:28 GMT
Scotland - well Just wow! I remember commenting about a year ago that as bread and butter issues came to the fore and the salience of identity/constitutional ones receded, parties that were pushing the latter risked becoming out of touch with the electorate risked to being punished at the ballot box. That seems to have occurred in Scotland. Again I didn't expect the SNP to be hit so hard - but that's FPTP for you!
On Sky News they were discussing this… Ruth Davidson was one of the people on the panel. Talking about how independence was still obviously a live issue, but it had fallen down the list of priorities somewhat. And there was a parallel with Sinn Fein, who are still looking for uniting Ireland, but they had prospered by highlighting other concerns more, including LGBT etc. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2024 14:50:49 GMT
Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades. They also know LD won't form a government. They're not stupid. I live in leafy Melksham and Devizes, am a sometimes Labour member, all times Labour supporter but leant my vote to the Liberals. My wife who is a true Scouser and would disown her children if she found out they voted Tory, also voted Liberal as did my daughter who would normally vote Green. As an aside. my daughter and her friends are thrilled that for the first time there vote made a difference - previously we were in Devizes and Marlborough with the lovely Danny Kruger as MP. I know of people in our village with 'vote Green' signs outside their homes who admitted to me they were likely to vote LD in the end as the closer we got to the crunch the more important ejecting the tory seemed. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 14:52:52 GMT
I live in leafy Melksham and Devizes, am a sometimes Labour member, all times Labour supporter but leant my vote to the Liberals. My wife who is a true Scouser and would disown her children if she found out they voted Tory, also voted Liberal as did my daughter who would normally vote Green. As an aside. my daughter and her friends are thrilled that for the first time there vote made a difference - previously we were in Devizes and Marlborough with the lovely Danny Kruger as MP. I know of people in our village with 'vote Green' signs outside their homes who admitted to me they were likely to vote LD in the end as the closer we got to the crunch the more important ejecting the tory seemed. It's been a thing for decades and I'm amazed on what's supposed to be a polling site that we're talking about it.
Anyway, enjoying the victory and trawling through the results this morning (oh it's nearly 4pm)!  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 14:53:59 GMT
" when the inevitable attacks on Labour start they risk undermining the basis on which their current success rests. "
I don't think it's inevitably and frankly it would depend what the criticism related to.
I very much doubt Labour supporters would object to holding Labour to account over for example its support for a hard Brexit when they overwhelmingly oppose it.
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Post by mark61 on Jul 5, 2024 15:04:54 GMT
Can anyone explain why the east of England is such fertile ground for RefUK and the Conservatives, It's as if God picked up England and shook it like a rug and all the reasonable People rolled West!
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Post by eotw on Jul 5, 2024 15:05:31 GMT
The UK system of change of Government is brutal for the loser.
My son works at HMT and they have already had an inspiring speech from Rachel Reeves in the central court yard - I doubt if Hunt's chair is cold yet.
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Post by johntel on Jul 5, 2024 15:06:05 GMT
@lululemonmustdobetter "voter volatility is a key characteristic of modern politics"
I would argue that it's the politicians that are volatile, not the voters. Labour went from Corbyn to Starmer, Con all over the place. The majority of voters don't move from the middle ground and vote whatever it takes to preserve it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 15:10:54 GMT
I wasn't implying that tactical voting wasn't significant and no doubt there were hundreds of thousands possibly more who voted Labour or lib dem who did so because they preferred them to the alternatives. But who weren't their first choice.
But it's a bit of an assumption to suggest it is one way traffic, no doubt many of the seats Labour won from the Tories benefited from voters who would have preferred a lib dem or green mp but didn't think it was a realistic possibility under fptp in the place they live. This doesn't mean that there is a particularly higher percentage of people among lib dems than labour.
I would stand by my opinion that most people who voted either Labour or lib dem do so because it's their first choice and tactical voting is a vote for someone you would otherwise not choose.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 15:13:30 GMT
"Can anyone explain why the east of England is such fertile ground for RefUK"
It's flat the refukers can see the suckers from a distance.
That and an older, less educated, white ,low migrant , population profile.
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Post by richardstamper on Jul 5, 2024 15:21:01 GMT
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Yes the question of electoral reform will be raised - but cant see Labour/Starmer changing a system that has given him such a victory, and potential future victories!
It will be interesting to see how Labour plays this one. How about this for an approach, assuming the Tories remained wedded to FPTP? - Acknowledge that the disproportionality of the 2024 election is an impediment to rebuilding trust in politics, so establish a commission to determine what proportional system would be best.
- Include in the manifesto for the election in 2028/2029 a commitment to hold a referendum to confirm changing to the recommended system for the following election. Lots of plausible lines to take as to why not just implement it immediately: still much to do to rebuild the country from the 14 years of Tory destruction; important to have broad support for such a fundamental change; if you want PR you have to vote Labour to guarantee you get the opportunity. This could plausibly suppress votes for the minor parties, increasing the prospect of another 5-year term with a large Labour majority.
- Assuming a Labour victory in 2028/29 hold the referendum:
- PR approved? Implement for an election in 2033/34, with Labour in a strong position to form post-election coalitions having demonstrated their trustworthiness in following through on a commitment not obviously in their partisan interest.
- PR rejected? Probably only likely if support for minor parties has declined, so prospects continue to be relatively good for Labour under FPTP. - It would be possible to go slower by offering in 2028/29 manifesto implementation first for local elections, and if that goes well then putting a commitment for national elections in the manifesto for 2033/34, so first implemented in something like 2037/38.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 5, 2024 15:26:28 GMT
To a large degree the debate about Lab %share is irrelevant - Labour's electoral strategy has delivered a landslide. As was the case with the US Pres election in 2016, piling up big majorities in areas you are going to win anyway doesn't get you victory - its winning in battleground areas.
Well that’s the thing. Certainly, Labour appeared to have a strategy to optimise the distribution of voting. * It may have delivered some more seats. But to conclude that it delivered the landslide itself is more of a stretch. There may well have been a landslide anyway. - without optimising where they campaigned or the messaging et cetera - just not quite as big. Other things outside Labour’s control played a significant part in the landslide. Tory polling collapsing due to Partygate, then Truss etc., Reform splitting the vote, the resurgence of the LDs and so on. Teasing out what part each component played is the tricky part, but useful if one can do it * to some extent Tories did this in 2015 to spring their surprise (along with targeted social media ads et cetera). They ferried coach-loads of young activists around the country to swing seats. (This might be less jarring than ferrying seasoned local campaigners to other constituencies). |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 15:31:22 GMT
"It would be possible to go slower by offering in 2028/29 manifesto implementation first for local elections, and if that goes well then putting a commitment for national elections in the manifesto for 2033/34, so first implemented in something like 2037/38"
Given that the 18-28:age cohort overwhelmingly support PR would be delighted to wait until their pushing 40.
Labour had a perfectly workable plan under Blair, didn't stop them breaking their manifesto pledge and not having a referendum on it.
The party conference voted for the implementation of P R , I suspect that request will be ignored as well.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 15:40:54 GMT
...
Yes the question of electoral reform will be raised - but cant see Labour/Starmer changing a system that has given him such a victory, and potential future victories!
It will be interesting to see how Labour plays this one. How about this for an approach, assuming the Tories remained wedded to FPTP? - Acknowledge that the disproportionality of the 2024 election is an impediment to rebuilding trust in politics, so establish a commission to determine what proportional system would be best.
- Include in the manifesto for the election in 2028/2029 a commitment to hold a referendum to confirm changing to the recommended system for the following election. Lots of plausible lines to take as to why not just implement it immediately: still much to do to rebuild the country from the 14 years of Tory destruction; important to have broad support for such a fundamental change; if you want PR you have to vote Labour to guarantee you get the opportunity. This could plausibly suppress votes for the minor parties, increasing the prospect of another 5-year term with a large Labour majority.
- Assuming a Labour victory in 2028/29 hold the referendum:
- PR approved? Implement for an election in 2033/34, with Labour in a strong position to form post-election coalitions having demonstrated their trustworthiness in following through on a commitment not obviously in their partisan interest.
- PR rejected? Probably only likely if support for minor parties has declined, so prospects continue to be relatively good for Labour under FPTP. - It would be possible to go slower by offering in 2028/29 manifesto implementation first for local elections, and if that goes well then putting a commitment for national elections in the manifesto for 2033/34, so first implemented in something like 2037/38.
You don't need a referendum to change an electoral system. The Conservatives didn't have a referendum on changing the system for electing Mayors and PCCs. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 15:44:10 GMT
On Tory leaders, given IDS survived, perhaps they should let him have another go; after all it went so well last time. Its time for the quiet man to turn up the volume!  |
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Post by t7g4 on Jul 5, 2024 15:46:08 GMT
So Labour got elected with 33.7% of the vote (2 seats to declare but not likely to go Labour) and received 412 seats on a turnout of 60%, so essentially 1 in 5 (might be even lower)of the eligible voters voted for them.
There is no enthusiasm for Labour as the vast majority don't support them and didn't vote for them.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 15:46:59 GMT
So Labour got elected with 33.7% of the vote (2 seats to declare but not likely to go Labour) and received 412 seats on a turnout of 60%, so essentially 1 in 5 (might be even lower)of the eligible voters voted for them. There is no enthusiasm for Labour as the vast majority don't support them and didn't vote for them. They should all resign. NOW. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 15:47:49 GMT
So Labour got elected with 33.7% of the vote (2 seats to declare but not likely to go Labour) and received 412 seats on a turnout of 60%, so essentially 1 in 5 (might be even lower)of the eligible voters voted for them. There is no enthusiasm for Labour as the vast majority don't support them and didn't vote for them. Equally there is even less enthusiasm for all the other parties since all them did worse. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2024 15:48:56 GMT
Can anyone explain why the east of England is such fertile ground for RefUK and the Conservatives, It's as if God picked up England and shook it like a rug and all the reasonable People rolled West! A few Lab MPs in Norfolk and a Green now in Suffolk, can't be all bad. Something about the coastal towns though, perhaps the sense of isolation in them. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2024 15:52:14 GMT
So Labour got elected with 33.7% of the vote (2 seats to declare but not likely to go Labour) and received 412 seats on a turnout of 60%, so essentially 1 in 5 (might be even lower)of the eligible voters voted for them. There is no enthusiasm for Labour as the vast majority don't support them and didn't vote for them. As has been mentioned quite a few times now much, if not almost all of the LD vote (including mine and several on here) was with a Lab gvt in mind (I did exactly the same thing in 97). I've only voted Labour in general elections when I lived in safe Lab Oxford East, though always supporting them. There were also many who deliberately abstained from voting tory knowing and accepting the consequence of that. In our system there are really only two gvt options. |
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Post by pete on Jul 5, 2024 15:54:56 GMT
The result of the election matched expectations but there were a few suprises not picked up by pollsters: 1) Labour losses and near losses to independents, due to Gaza conflict. Ashworth Losing seat and Streeting in very close call. This was not expected to happen, 2) Reform polling a few points lower than the polls predicted. Was there a swing between reform to Con at last minute or were polls over estimating Reform support. 3) SNP performing so poorly in seat share in Scotland 4) Lib Dem VI a bit higher than predicted. Not far behind Reform VI. This not picked up in polls. Strong performance in terms of seats gained. 5) Labour polling a few points lower (actually a lot lower) than polling suggested? |
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