steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 12:45:15 GMT
With just 34% of the vote in a low turnout there are hundreds of seats with relatively small majorities.
The big majority is more fragile than it seems.
The Labour government have to be perceived as successful.
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 12:47:00 GMT
So do we have any consensus on who won the prediction thread? I'd probably go for robas who had: Lab 423 Con 106 LDM 64 SNP 24 PC 4 GRN 4 REF 5 IND 1 NI 18 SPK 1 I'd like an honorouble mention for very early on predicting 4 indies and 3 Greens. neilj very accurate on Lab-Con but missed Greens and Indies and Reform ditto James E . ptarmigan also good effort. Have I missed any other claims to the title? I'm in the running for the wooden spoon I think |
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Post by xanadan on Jul 5, 2024 12:49:53 GMT
Is there any breakdown of actual voting by age range?
I wonder how much the demographics are against the conservatives/reform? What will be the erosion in that older voters by 5 years time?
I know reform have made inroads into the younger generation, but I don't think the conservatives have.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 12:52:47 GMT
Tom Tugendhat held his seat reasonably comfortably, if the Tories don't as anticipate choose to go down the rabbit hole of racist nationalism would be a good choice as a return to sanity leader
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 12:56:31 GMT
The truth is Labour got fewer votes than they did in their “worst election in a century “ That is a sobering thought and reflects the problems Labour has for the next election, unless they find a way to reconnect with the working class Reform voters. Their lives must improve to hold off the hard right. How awful for them. Tories are fine though? |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 5, 2024 12:58:32 GMT
When does the cabinet start to be announced?
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 12:58:57 GMT
The truth is Labour got fewer votes than they did in their “worst election in a century “ That is a sobering thought and reflects the problems Labour has for the next election, unless they find a way to reconnect with the working class Reform voters. Their lives must improve to hold off the hard right. They also have to reconnect with voters like me. A big thing they could and should do is get rid of the 2 child benefit cap, lifting hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty. I would say an even bigger thing is the threshold for basic tax allowance which needs to be raised at least in line with inflation otherwise the poor will continue to get poorer |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 12:59:07 GMT
I didn't put any seat estimates when I posted this a few days ago, but in terms of turnout, party percentages and majority, not too dusty an effort.
My thoughts. Purely unscientific, but I've seen a lot of elections, and I think you get a 'vibe' of what's going on. Firstly, a low turnout. 67.3% last time. I'd be surprised if it's much over 60% this time.
I think the polls generally flatter to deceive. I don't see LAB hitting 40%, or CON falling below 25%. I think RFM have stalled and would be surprised if they reached 15%. LDEM I think will have a very good night, though. Say 14%? LAB to make gains from SNP, but possibly not stellar. The odd GRN here and there. I know little of NI politics, but possibly some DUP setbacks. So, my guess...
LAB 36% CON 26% RFM 14% LDEM 14% GRN 5% SNP 3% OTH 2%
Per EC, LAB majority 178. I'll take that every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:08:07 GMT
So the polls were horrendously wrong. Everyone here was wrong. 34%
I was going to take a break and it starts soon!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:15:46 GMT
Wow !!!!!!!! And what ugly, nasty people - mostly male of course - she exposed. i used to love my country when I was younger but, although there are really good people everywhere, that feeling has been lost over the past few years and replaced with despair. I really hope that the next few years will allow it to return |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:20:19 GMT
Starmer now prime minister. Thanks Steve, hadn’t spotted that.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:22:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:23:21 GMT
I feel sorry for my friends in Southampton North as they've been lumped in with a constituency which is foreign to them (Romsey, a market town 5 miles away) but Caroline Nokes is a good constituency MP and champion of women's rights (without playing to the toxic crowd).
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 13:24:36 GMT
So I think Labour can enjoy the moment but should be very concerned about the underlying voter volatility when they start from such a low base of voter numbers at 9.6 million. They need to deliver over the next 5 years and not with a spreadsheet that says hospital waiting times have gone down by 5% but with something that the political disengaged voter will notice. I'd always thought they would get two terms but if the Tories or Reform sort themselves out then all bets are off. I think today is the apex of the Reform story. The Party has grown (as did the Brexit referendum) as a result of austerity, of the failure over 14 years to tackle fundamental issues of migration, housing, good jobs, health, care etc etc. The hatred of the Tories gave Farage his successes last night. If Labour govern, as they've promised, for all the people and everywhere in the country, if they deliver levelling up and improve the public services that people rely on and the reducton of the dog whistle of the culture wars then the attraction of Reform will wane and people will no longer feel the need to look to extremes. It's a tall order but I think Starmer absolutely understands this. In 5 years time Farage will be yesterday's man. Up to a point, but if Labour don't do something very effective about immigration numbers Reform won't just evaporate. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:25:20 GMT
When does the cabinet start to be announced? I’ve already been appointed, informally, as Minister of Music with responsibilities for returning us to the rock/folk music of the 60s and 70s plus the eradication of rap music, Taylor Swift etc etc etc etc etc etc. It comes without portfolio (I have my own from my artistic days and that will do fine) plus I don’t need to go to boring cabinet meetings. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 13:30:46 GMT
I’ve already been appointed, informally, as Minister of Music with responsibilities for returning us to the rock/folk music of the 60s and 70s plus the eradication of rap music, Taylor Swift etc etc etc etc etc etc. It comes without portfolio (I have my own from my artistic days and that will do fine) plus I don’t need to go to boring cabinet meetings. How come there wasn't anything on this in the manifesto. CSNY, Creedence and Fairport and my vote is for secured |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 5, 2024 13:31:17 GMT
Hello everyone - hope everyone enjoyed last night! I stopped following this site when the polls closed, stayed up all night and didn't go to bed 7am, so haven't had time to read all the posts yet. Sorry if others have made these points (most likely more eloquently) already.
So steve , the LD's managed to outperform even what seemed to be the most optimistic of predictions! Massive vindication of Davey's strategy, and illustration of how this really was an anybody but the Tories election, with the electorate managing to organise itself to inflict as much damage as possible on them. As you were aware I was very sceptical of the extent to tactical voting would be effective - glad to be proven wrong!
Scotland - well Just wow! I remember commenting about a year ago that as bread and butter issues came to the fore and the salience of identity/constitutional ones receded, parties that were pushing the latter risked becoming out of touch with the electorate risked to being punished at the ballot box. That seems to have occurred in Scotland. Again I didn't expect the SNP to be hit so hard - but that's FPTP for you!
Another point I previously raised was that if a party had a 10% lead over the party in second place, FPTP would deliver a majority. That has been graphically illustrated in this GE! To a large degree the debate about Lab %share is irrelevant - Labour's electoral strategy has delivered a landslide. As was the case with the US Pres election in 2016, piling up big majorities in areas you are going to win anyway doesn't get you victory - its winning in battleground areas. Lab's vote share in areas it already held was most probably depressed due to Gaza, assumptions Labour would anyway leading to lower turnout and some feeling they were freer to vote for parties such as the Green comfortable in the knowledge that the Tories wouldn't win.
All elections are different, and what will be driving voters in 28/29 god only knows and Labour in different circumstance could easily get a vote share in 40's then - but what is certain is for the next 4/5 years is that they have a massive majority in parliament. On the questions of legitimacy/mandate, given the binary choice our system produces in terms of who forms the gvt, I'm sure that amongst those who voted LD/Green the majority wanted Labour to win and form the govt. Legitimacy in the UK system derives from the no of seats you have - not your popular vote!
One should note that despite all the hype over reform, their % share was not that much more than the LDs and the Greens got as many seats. The combined vote for centre-left parties is much bigger than for the centre right. If the right spends the next 5 years split and fighting amongst itself - that naturally will electorally help Labour.
Yes the question of electoral reform will be raised - but cant see Labour/Starmer changing a system that has given him such a victory, and potential future victories!
(I will now go back and read everyone's posts!🧡🧡🧡🧡🧡 Interested to see how our SNP friends have reacted).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:32:37 GMT
I’ve already been appointed, informally, as Minister of Music with responsibilities for returning us to the rock/folk music of the 60s and 70s plus the eradication of rap music, Taylor Swift etc etc etc etc etc etc. It comes without portfolio (I have my own from my artistic days and that will do fine) plus I don’t need to go to boring cabinet meetings. How come there wasn't anything on this in the manifesto. Modesty on my part. (Can’t find a suitably humble looking emoji so use your imagination….I will do the same ) |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 5, 2024 13:37:10 GMT
Does anyone know why Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is so delayed?
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 13:40:31 GMT
So do we have any consensus on who won the prediction thread? I'd probably go for robas who had: Lab 423 Con 106 LDM 64 SNP 24 PC 4 GRN 4 REF 5 IND 1 NI 18 SPK 1 I'd like an honorouble mention for very early on predicting 4 indies and 3 Greens. neilj very accurate on Lab-Con but missed Greens and Indies and Reform ditto James E . ptarmigan also good effort. Have I missed any other claims to the title? Lab 400 Con 172 LD 41 SNP 12 PC 4 G 2 NI 18 Spk 1 That was from 23/5. Not too bad on Labour and closer than most for SNP I think. I expect most of us could claim to be fairly close on one or two. I suppose someone could work out the sum of squares of the differences or something, but I'm certainly not going to. Very difficult election to predict because of low turnout and various insurgents such as reform, Green, Indpendents etc. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 5, 2024 13:40:34 GMT
Does anyone know why Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is so delayed? do not know but I'm going on holiday there next week so I will ask around. |
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 13:43:22 GMT
mandolinist - "When does the cabinet start to be announced?" Last week.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 13:43:31 GMT
Dunno if everybody is aware but norbold is an acclaimed writer. I was going to ask him for free copies of two of his books, given that I have liked a number of his posts and also the cost, including delivery, was over a fiver. Anyway, my generous spirit won over and I didn’t bother him. So Abe Books are sending them to me as I type and I’m really looking forward to reading them. Like Norman I once lived in a prefab (in Plymouth, early 50s) so we have much in common. (ps to norbold - have pm’d you) Paul |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 5, 2024 13:45:31 GMT
Wow !!!!!!!! And what ugly, nasty people - mostly male of course - she exposed. i used to love my country when I was younger but, although there are really good people everywhere, that feeling has been lost over the past few years and replaced with despair. I really hope that the next few years will allow it to return I have to admit that listening to Starmer's speech I felt the very faint stirrings of something I haven't felt for many years. A sense of belonging for this country more widely, not just my local community and Europe as has been the case for a while now. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 13:51:05 GMT
Does anyone know why Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is so delayed? from the Beeb "Returning officer Derek Brown said there was a discrepancy between the verified votes total and the provisional number of counted votes. The candidates - including the SNP's Drew Hendry who has been an MP in the area since 2015 - have been told to return to the counting centre in Dingwall at 10:30 on Saturday." |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 14:00:49 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter"I'm sure that amongst those who voted LD/Green the majority wanted Labour to win and form the govt. " Actually I wanted The lib dems to win but like I'm sure the large majority of green and lib dem voters my preference among the parties I didn't want to win was Labour
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 5, 2024 14:02:34 GMT
domjg "I have to admit that listening to Starmer's speech I felt the very faint stirrings of something I haven't felt for many years. A sense of belonging for this country more widely, not just my local community and Europe as has been the case for a while now." Colin will be pleased.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 14:06:22 GMT
Talking about delayed results, South Basildon and East Thurrock is a potential 5th RefUK MP. On the first count they were just ahead of Labour with the Tories 1,000 behind when the returning officer called it a night. There were counting discrepancies found when the recount started.
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Post by eotw on Jul 5, 2024 14:07:13 GMT
Can't believe Grant Shapps, Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox all lost their seats
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 14:12:41 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter "I'm sure that amongst those who voted LD/Green the majority wanted Labour to win and form the govt. " Actually I wanted The lib dems to win but like I'm sure the large majority of green and lib dem voters my preference among the parties I didn't want to win was Labour Poppycock. Millions who live in leafy Tory seats who want a Labour government but realise the party is nothing in their constituency vote LD and have had to for decades. They also know LD won't form a government. They're not stupid. |
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