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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 17, 2022 11:25:52 GMT
leftieliberal I'll quote a section from the Drax press release. Anyone spot a bit of bias  “Britain’s long-term energy security will be strengthened by ending our reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels such as gas and instead increasing investment in homegrown renewables, and innovative green technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and pumped storage hydro.”
Press Releases are a part of PR and you should expect them to be biased towards the company producing them. It's the newspapers that publish them without comment that really deserve censure. That said I'm glad that Drax are investing in more pumped storage hydro. I take it from your lack of comment on the Imperial College report that you haven't found bias there - that would be a serious issue coming from a highly-ranked university. The question we should really be asking IMO is why the UK Government isn't investing in conversion of existing hydro-electric schemes to pumped hydro (it's the sort of capital investment that the Government can fund much more cheaply than commercial companies like Drax) and one of my earlier postings in this thread did mention the Strathclyde University work that showed that 500 GWh was available by this sort of conversion in Scotland alone. alec 's point about the lack of north-south capacity in the National Grid network is also relevant as most of the pumped storage capacity is in the Highlands. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 17, 2022 15:23:33 GMT
leftieliberal I'll quote a section from the Drax press release. Anyone spot a bit of bias “Britain’s long-term energy security will be strengthened by ending our reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels such as gas and instead increasing investment in homegrown renewables, and innovative green technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and pumped storage hydro.”
Press Releases are a part of PR and you should expect them to be biased towards the company producing them. It's the newspapers that publish them without comment that really deserve censure. That said I'm glad that Drax are investing in more pumped storage hydro. I take it from your lack of comment on the Imperial College report that you haven't found bias there - that would be a serious issue coming from a highly-ranked university. I made several points about the analysis. I wouldn't say it was 'biased' but you should expect that anyone conducting 'analysis' will want to please the people who are paying for it - a frequent comment made about some polling. I wouldn't suggest censure newspapers (eg NewStatesman's cherry picking from the report) just that people respect most 'news' outlets will have a bias - which is sometimes just to make something sound more dramatic to grab readers attention. It was a good piece of info and thank you for posting it. PS We broadly agree on pumped hydro and have discussed that in the past. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 17, 2022 15:27:10 GMT
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Post by alec on Dec 17, 2022 16:46:05 GMT
Mr Poppy - "I'm not interested in reading your posts..." But you already told us you don't read them...unless of course........ 
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 17, 2022 19:07:26 GMT
alec - thank you, that is exactly what I meant! Where I think I was confusing things myself was whether some of the devices I saw available online could maybe do a more sophisticated version of the same thing - but now it seems from what both you and Mr Poppy have said is that the next step up would have to be devices that monitor individual sockets by plugging through them in the same way as one would with say plugging through a circuit-breaker plug when using a lawnmower or hedge-trimmer? (we're not at all there yet, we just want to understand basic stuff like have a feel for how much our central heating settings add on a cold windy day, or how much cost difference there is between cooking our sunday roast in the gas oven or the fan oven in the unfamil1ar stove we acquired with the house) I'll speak to our energy provider as you suggest, thanks again! I would still recommend starting by using your IHD (when you get one from your supplier) to get an overall idea of your energy use. They also have the advantage that they provide meter readings that are more precise than on your bills (mine reads to 1Wh and 1 litre of gas; 0.1% of the billing unit). The real advantage of the plug-in devices is that once you have a baseline consumption for each component: fridge, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher you can check it at least once a year to see if it is changing. That should give you advance warning of a failing unit (or a need to vacuum the coils on the back for the fridge). If you have an electric cooker or hob, that will be wired directly to the consumer unit so you won't be able to use the plug, similarly for measuring the electric pump and fan on the gas boiler, if you have one. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 17, 2022 21:40:08 GMT
alec - thank you, that is exactly what I meant! Where I think I was confusing things myself was whether some of the devices I saw available online could maybe do a more sophisticated version of the same thing - but now it seems from what both you and Mr Poppy have said is that the next step up would have to be devices that monitor individual sockets by plugging through them in the same way as one would with say plugging through a circuit-breaker plug when using a lawnmower or hedge-trimmer? (we're not at all there yet, we just want to understand basic stuff like have a feel for how much our central heating settings add on a cold windy day, or how much cost difference there is between cooking our sunday roast in the gas oven or the fan oven in the unfamil1ar stove we acquired with the house) I'll speak to our energy provider as you suggest, thanks again! I would still recommend starting by using your IHD (when you get one from your supplier) to get an overall idea of your energy use. They also have the advantage that they provide meter readings that are more precise than on your bills (mine reads to 1Wh and 1 litre of gas; 0.1% of the billing unit). The real advantage of the plug-in devices is that once you have a baseline consumption for each component: fridge, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher you can check it at least once a year to see if it is changing. That should give you advance warning of a failing unit (or a need to vacuum the coils on the back for the fridge). If you have an electric cooker or hob, that will be wired directly to the consumer unit so you won't be able to use the plug, similarly for measuring the electric pump and fan on the gas boiler, if you have one. Just to clarify once again I did not suggest buying power meters and you have mentioned a few reasons why (eg EOR mentions ovens and you point out that issue). My suggestion, once again, is to ensure you are using any appliances as efficiency as possible - using info that is free and easy to obtain (some links have been previously provided, including the Which one I posted earlier that contains a lot of info) There is a saying: "a bad workman blames his tools" and IMO that applies more broadly to people being too quick to blame the equipment* rather than how they are using it. With most people needing to be more careful about their expenditure then buying and then using a power meter when you're not really sure how to interpret the data (eg your base reading comment is important but you also need to ensure a perfect replication of any future tests being used as a comparison) could end up being a very expensive way to solve a 'user problem'. EG You have a fridge and have neglected to vacuum the coils and often put 'warm' leftovers in rather than ensuring they are cool first. You buy a power meter and 'interpret' the info as a fault with the fridge. You then spend a lot more money getting someone to take a look at it. They might point out the issues you could have done for yourself OR, worse, sell you a new fridge that you don't need. The new fridge would likely be better to begin with and thinking you've fixed the 'problem' you keep putting warm food into it and neglecting to vacuum the coils and a year later you get your power meter back out and conclude the new fridge must have a problem (repeat previous steps). Without knowing the individual then I'd be very cautious offering advice beyond the free and easy to obtain advice concerning how to make sure you're using your appliances as efficiency as possible (and are fully aware of what tariff you are on and how timing of use might also save you money). NB I am NOT saying that power meters have no use, just that it is not the first or even early advice that I would give to anyone - especially someone who I do not know. * Of course when it comes to feeling the need to justify buying a new mountain bike or something you want to spend surplus cash on, then it is clearly always tired old equipment that needs to be replaced and I certainly don't need a bike power meter (costing up to £2k for the really good ones) to tell me I'm not as fit now as I was in my prime - nope, it's the equipment (or at the moment the additional friction from riding on snow) that is preventing me cleaning** the tough climbs for sure ** biking term for making it all the way to the top without dabbing (putting a foot down briefly) or stopping. |
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2022 7:15:16 GMT
eor, leftieliberal and Mr Poppy - To be honest, it's very easy to do an accurate baseline measurement with a power monitor as leftieliberal says. There are not too expensive devices that use electric fields around cables via calipers that would cover things like ovens if interested, but in general these aren't the areas where you tend to get hidden fault conditions. Stick with the <£20 cheap monitors and you won't go wrong. Mr Poppy is just wrong on this. It's the first port of call if you want to properly audit your domestic use. I have a large box of these that I lend out to clients, and they are brutally effective. Ask any energy efficiency expert. Again, I can't stress more, you will only be able to identify certain common excess consumption problems through detailed appliance monitoring. My best example was actually a small B&B where they did everything they thought they should do, but we found that a domestic size fridge was responsible for 35% of their entire electricity bill because of an internal fault. It was running absolutely fine, according to temperature logging, seals and coils properly maintained etc, and there was no way they would be able to identify any problem without use of the monitor. In fact, baseline issues aren't a reason not to use monitors - the point with faults is that you generate a false baseline, which you think is normal, and you just go on and on wasting energy. In that particular case, the new fridge paid the investment back within four months. I've been doing this for two decades and currently have an order book for energy audits a mile thick, so I believe I can state that I am something of an expert in this. Trevor isn't, so I'd advise not to pay too much attention to his advise.
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2022 9:48:22 GMT
@lexiteer - I don't consider giving expert advice and countering factually incorrect statements as flaming. That's normal, civilised discourse. There are a number of other factually incorrect statements in your last post, for example - suggesting I've said things I never said, and that I am trying to profit from fear being two of them. You've no idea what my charging structure is, or how much pro bono work I do, and I personally think that at times it's best to acknowledge the limitations of your knowledge instead of insisting you know better than experts in everything.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 18, 2022 19:07:13 GMT
OEIS update: Quarterly Gas Review: Short- and Medium-Term Outlook for Gas Marketswww.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Gas-Quarterly-Review-Issue-19.pdfQuite a long read but for people who want more than a 'picked cherry' for prices then see Figure 1.1: European prices and the commentary below (NBP = UK benchmark, TTF = Dutch and main EU benchmark). Figure 1.2 and the commentary below covers the issue of coal being cheaper than gas, a situation that is likely to continue and about which I have commented on previously (ie why is UK not burning more coal when likes of Germany, with a 'green' govt, are burning a lot more of the cheaper but more polluting version - some of which we indirectly import!) With Europe still importing some gas from Russia, high storage levels and ongoing high levels of LNG imports then it is looking like we'll get through this Winter but refilling storage next Summer is going to be challenging. leftieliberal might be interested in Figure 4.2 with commentary on the reasons for the variation in demand reduction for the six largest gas markets in Europe - very different findings to the Drax report (which is likely more than just picking a different date range). |
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2022 19:46:16 GMT
Mr Poppy - " leftieliberal might be interested in Figure 4.2 with commentary on the reasons for the variation in demand reduction for the six largest gas markets in Europe - very different findings to the Drax report (which is likely more than just picking a different date range)." Not so sure about that. Both are standard time series reports, the Drax report from July - Sep, and the Oxford Energy report the year to November, so covering the very mild UK autumn. Both use actual data. The Oxford report makes clear that the reductions in some EU countries have been offset by higher use of gas for electricity due to the price cap effect, but it makes it clear that there have been substantial reductions in gas consumption in the industrial and heating sectors across the EU market.
The two reports are entirely consistent with each other, much as you would expect for two fact based periodic sector updates. Nothing to see here.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 18, 2022 23:00:06 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 18, 2022 23:02:51 GMT
SSE begins work on hydrogen storage cavern on Yorkshire coastExclusive: Renewable energy will be kept in cathedral-sized cave for freezing, windless conditions www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/18/sse-begins-work-on-hydrogen-storage-cavern-on-yorkshire-coast“ SSE hopes to get the project running by 2025, before a larger hydrogen storage project planned for the same site in 2028 in partnership with the Norwegian energy company Equinor. The pair are also developing the Keadby hydrogen power station, planned to be the world’s first big 100% hydrogen-fired power station. SSE has signed a contract with Siemens Energy for design and engineering work on the pathfinder project.
Centrica, the parent company of British Gas, has invested in an industry joint venture which will trial using hydrogen at an existing peaking plant at the Brigg station in Lincolnshire.
The pilot, which will launch in the second half of next year, is aimed at examining the role that hydrogen can play in producing power.”
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 19, 2022 0:12:23 GMT
Example: Spain In the OEIS article then Spain has only reduced gas demand by 1% for 2022 YTD, where as in the Drax article* they have allegedly reduced demand by about 20% on average for the five months they chose to use. Not impossible but that would imply Spain dramatically increased gas usage for the 6mths that the Drax study didn't use - which fails a basic 'sniff test' IMO. Overall UK is middle of the table when 'apples v apples' are used for 2022 YTD, certainly not an outlier, where as Drax article makes UK look by far the worst** and claims that UK is an outlier. That is clear to see for anyone who has read the reports and looks at the data in the charts. * Reposted www.drax.com/press_release/europe-is-cutting-gas-usage-faster-than-uk/** Some of the methodology (eg trade), type of industry and 'coal v gas' reasons already covered for why Germany looks very good versus UK. |
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Post by alec on Dec 19, 2022 6:49:46 GMT
Mr Poppy - "Overall UK is middle of the table when 'apples v apples' are used for 2022 YTD, certainly not an outlier, where as Drax article makes UK look by far the worst** and claims that UK is an outlier. That is clear to see for anyone who has read the reports and looks at the data in the charts." Indeed it is. The Drax report actually states that their data excludes power generation and doesn't adjust for weather effects. It covers the period when the EU energy efficiency legislation kicks in, and it shows how the legally mandated restrictions in many countries have had a very striking effect. I'm at something of a loss to imagine quite what you are arguing here. I suppose the best response is to flip the question around; do you think the UK has done a better job than the EU on developing a strong energy efficiency campaign? As I say, the reports are entirely consistent, and the evidence is abundantly clear that the EU has had a good deal of success in reducing demand for gas. If you correct for ambient weather conditions and for the switch of some generation to gas to cover other issues (French nuclear problems) you would perhaps understand just how much ground the UK lost to the EU in terms of efficiency savings. To argue anything other than this is just dogmatic barminess. I mean, the UK hasn't even had an energy efficiency campaign, let alone restricted some uses by legislation.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 19, 2022 17:35:59 GMT
IEA report on coal usage, from page7: "Under the threat of gas shortages and potential issues ensuring sufficient power system adequacy, some coal plants that had closed down or been left in reserve have re-entered the market. In most countries, this involved a limited amount of coal power capacity. Only in Germany, with 10 gigawatts (GW), is the reversal at a significant scale. This has increased coal power generation in the European Union, which is expected to remain at these higher levels for some time"iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/91982b4e-26dc-41d5-88b1-4c47ea436882/Coal2022.pdfNB That is not happening in UK, despite UK having a lot of additional coal plants available, or fairly easy to bring out of 'reserve' status. Also, see OEIS report that shows coal is much cheaper than gas. Also note France's problems with 'old-old' (and 'new-old') nuclear have further delays*. So, given Germany is burning so much more coal (and often exporting the electricity produced by it to France and Belgium**) then as a 'team player' why is UK not doing our bit to save gas and 'temporarily' burn more coal instead (which would help lower the price of electricity in UK and across the interconnected market on NW Europe)? * EDF further delays the restart of several nuclear plants: www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-further-delays-restart-several-nuclear-plants-2022-12-19/Further delay to Flamanville EPR start up: www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Further-delay-to-Flamanville-EPR-start-up ** Wind has picked back up but we're still importing electricity from France and Belgium, with Belgium importing electricity from coal burning Germany (hover over the arrows between countries in repost on below link - and note that is 'live' so it will change, but does normally show Germany burning a lot of coal and exporting to their interconnected neighbours). The map also shows the issue of 'carbon accounting' for trade in electricity app.electricitymaps.com/map?wind=true PS Could be some more news on RR's 'new-new' nuclear soon and given how long it seems to take EDF to build 'new-old' then IMO we'll have RR SMRs producing electricity before Sizewell C (although I appreciate that CON HMG couldn't 'dither and delay' any longer and had to make a decision on 'proven' tech). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 19, 2022 17:48:09 GMT
alec - thank you, that is exactly what I meant! Where I think I was confusing things myself was whether some of the devices I saw available online could maybe do a more sophisticated version of the same thing - but now it seems from what both you and Mr Poppy have said is that the next step up would have to be devices that monitor individual sockets by plugging through them in the same way as one would with say plugging through a circuit-breaker plug when using a lawnmower or hedge-trimmer? (we're not at all there yet, we just want to understand basic stuff like have a feel for how much our central heating settings add on a cold windy day, or how much cost difference there is between cooking our sunday roast in the gas oven or the fan oven in the unfamil1ar stove we acquired with the house) I got one of those years ago and went round the house trying it on different equipment for long enough to get a decent average consumption. So a long project. But having done that, I keep records of consumption by reading meters now and then and have a nice spreadsheet showing consumption of gas and electricity for a few years in the current property. But I dont usually bother with the individual meter because I am pretty confident what is going to be using how much power. If I get something new, then try it out. I'd agree the advice to check tips on offer to save energy. I doubt the sort of detail from testing each device is helping much, but it did demonstrate eg typical amounts for a laptop (rather less than a desktop so hint there), an old TV, a new Tv, a big TV, but much of this stuff you are stuck with until it comes time for replacement. So maybe it makes sense to always have a full load on the washing machine, and you might if sufficiently motivated like to calculate how much the cost is on full or half loads, but mostly its common sense: Dont run it half empty when it expects to be full! Dont run two fridges instead of one! less important than in the past, but dont leave stuff on standby if not needed for long periods, switch it off fully. Energy saving lightbulbs, watch out for those dinky filament bulb ones still being installed in some lights. I very much doubt buying new LED christmas lights makes sense compared to just running the old filament ones. Heating anything is the big cost item, though it MIGHT be cheaper to heat one room electrically than the whole house by gas CH. Dont heat what you dont need. radiators have off valves and even if they dont have fancy thermostatic valves you can actually put them almost off to give a small amount of heat instead of a lot in a not used room.
The Uk must be stuffed with condensing boilers designed to run at low (er) water temperatures, but installed in systems with radiators intended to be used with hotter water. So they underperform, or you turn up the water temperature anyway and lose the saving. can get round that by running for longer cooler, but then it depends if you use heating 24 hrs or just morning/evening letting it get cold between. A modern combi is really great for fast heating of a cold house because it has much greater burning power, because its designed to produce streaming hot water. Then though you want one which can throttle down enough to trickle a little heat into the CH to keep it topped up, but they technology is pretty clever regulating size of flame. What some of these ought to have is a 'fast heat' button, which would boost the circulating temperature for a short time at startup for quick start. That trick alone might shave some more off the national heating bill of a nation where many have a cyclic/warm/cold/warm house.
The hotter you make the house, the faster it is losing heat to the environment because the rate depends on the difference between inside and out. Not sure if its obvious to people generally that the same temperature costs a lot more to maintain when its really cold outside. An average house will retain heat for maybe up to a week slowly cooling if you had been running heating constantly and got the brickwork heated up.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 19, 2022 19:39:30 GMT
EU nations agree gas price cap to shield consumerswww.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-countries-make-final-push-gas-price-cap-deal-this-year-2022-12-19/NB the criteria, from 15Feb: 1/ prices will be limited if they breach 180 euros per megawatt hour for three days running. 2/ a level equivalent to or below the global price of liquified natural gas (LNG), plus 35 euros#1 could certainly be triggered but those familiar with the interconnected gas network* will know the second criteria is unlikely to ever be triggered (ie a win for those who opposed the 'cap'). Of note is that UK imports a lot of LNG and 'helps' rEurope by sending some of the regasified nat.gas to our near neighbours - so, in the unlikely event the cap is ever triggered then let's see if they do decide to ban imports from Norway, UK, etc. That will reduce the price of LNG (that UK imports) and then very likely mean the 2nd criteria would soon fail to be met and kick back (pretty sure Germany and the others who opposed the cap knew that before agreeing to the more newsworthy criteria #1). However, into next Winter, if LNG exporters decide it is better to export to Asia and other countries who do not have a cap rather than risk having LNG ships stacked up off the shores of Europe then.. well UK is not going to copy EU on the daft cap idea and all LNG export nations will know that. The one piece of info that UK needs to draw from the above is to ensure we don't rely on any Winter imports from EU via the interconnectors. EU would be crazy to break commercial contracts but forgive me for not trusting them. Fortunately our LNG infrastructure means we don't need to import any Winter gas from the EU but on 'cold dunkelflaute' days we will need to fire up more of our coal plants (something that IMO we should be 'temporarily' be doing already) NB Nat.gas is a 'fossil fuel' so UK+Norway have it stored in fossil format in the N.Sea and UK also imports a lot of LNG (far too much IMO, but that is a separate issue) * For those not familiar with the interconnected gas network then they can read the detailed OEIS report I recently posted, highlighting the one piece of 'jargon' people would need to know to be able to interpret Figure 1.1 (ie UK v EU benchmark gas price)
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Post by alec on Dec 20, 2022 6:30:43 GMT
Mr Poppy - "That will reduce the price of LNG (that UK imports) and then very likely mean the 2nd criteria would soon fail to be met..." Hmmm...not so sure about that. Depends rather on which global benchmark they use. Most the Asian LNG benchmarks regularly deviate from the TTF price, and by the sound of the reports the EU haven't actually named which one they would use, so possible that they will construct their own comparison measure.
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Post by alec on Dec 20, 2022 14:02:48 GMT
Mr Poppy (Trevor) - Mark has been in contact with me following your complaint to ask that we resolve this matter in a polite and civil manner. We had a brief exchange in which I volunteered that although I don't recall the precise details, I had probably broken his previous warning given to both of us regarding engagement between ourselves, and that I would be happy to accept a suspension if he saw fit. He agreed that I had indeed breached his prior judgement on this and issued me with a warning, which I accept without complaint. On the nub of your complaint, I'm going to say to you what I said to Mark; namely, that it is my belief that you did hold up the CBAM as an area the UK would be able to lead the EU on post Brexit, and that at the time I made the counter suggestion that the EU was and would be ahead of us. I appreciate you believe otherwise, and unfortunately we no longer have the UKPR1 archive to be able to demonstrate the veracity of each others views. As I said to Mark, what an individual believes is rather up to them. Genuinely held beliefs aren't lies, but they can be questioned. I wouldn't be happy to have to withdraw my comments, because my recollection leads me to believe they are true, but I am perfectly happy to acknowledge that you don't think you ever said such things. I wouldn't accuse you of being a liar for having a different view of a past conversation than me, and I believe we should be able to simply disagree with each other on such a matter where there is no evidence left as proof either way. Mark also suggested that I block you in future, which I have declined to do, because, as I've said previously, I like to read your posts and do learn things from them. I disagree with them quite often, because I often think you are wrong or guilty of misinterpretation, but that's just normal, honest online discourse.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 20, 2022 15:59:58 GMT
Mr Poppy An interesting article in New Statesman: www.newstatesman.com/economy/2022/12/why-is-the-bank-of-england-raising-interest-rates-when-inflation-has-peaked Some quotes I picked out. "The effects of this policy are laid bare in a report released yesterday by the energy company Drax. Researchers from Imperial College London concluded that as the UK went into autumn without any public information campaign on curbing energy use, gas demand was 4 per cent higher than in previous years. “In contrast, German gas demand was 17-33 per cent lower, and there is a similar story across France, Italy and Spain: all the largest economies in Europe have reduced the amount of gas they consume much further than Britain,” the report observed. "Overall the demand for gas in the UK has reduced by just 0.3 per cent when weather conditions are accounted for. Dr Iain Staffell, lead author of the report, said it showed the UK up as “an outlier on the world stage, showing no signs of reducing its appetite for gas during a time of dramatically higher prices”. and "The loose monetary policy of recent years has left the Bank with a “credibility gap”, Lyons argues. “They need to show that they’re tough,” he says, in an uncertain environment. But he, too, agrees that caution is needed: “The speed, the scale and the sequencing of monetary policy tightening needs to be very sensitive to the current performance of the economy, and also to the lagged effects of previous tightening that’s already in the pipeline.” Just to wrap up the discussion on actual demand reduction in UK then can you say whether or not you agree with OEIS 'apples v apples' study that has shown a significant reduction in UK gas demand, shows UK is 'middle of the table' in reducing gas demand and is certainly not an "outlier on the World Stage" I have previously stated in a reply to you that CON HMG should have started their information campaign earlier. However, as well as OEIS actual 'apples v apples' YTD numbers, we have plenty of polling that has shown a UK 'behavioural response' to reducing demand - likely due to price. I can do a list of other ways we can save gas (eg burn coal instead of gas, not help fill gas storage for our neighbours using UK's LNG infrastructure, etc) if the sole goal is making UK look 'good' using specific methodology for an analysis. Also, I wonder if you have seen any European government say people should buy power meters and self-diagnose their electric appliances as a way to reduce demand? AFAIK then all supplier/regulator/government campaigns (incl. the belated UK HMG one), as well as 'tips' from money saving experts like Martin Lewis, Which magazine, etc have focussed their advice on the fairly easy ways people can use their appliances and energy usage more efficiently. Free advice that will likely make an additional 'behavioural change' to the reduction in energy demand that we have already seen in UK and other countries beyond the demand reduction due to higher prices. NB The Drax report was still useful and I once again thank you for posting it. I have commented on the issues of why it is not 'apples v apples' and hence has bias (which NS then exaggerated by cherry picking one month). That does not mean the source (Drax) analysis has no value and I encourage everyone to post info on Energy demand reduction analysis. It will be impossible to say how much impact 'price' v 'government campaign' will have and any analysis will be complicated by the issues of trade, grid level choices (eg coal v gas), weather, etc. Those complication will allow very misleading analysis by 'cherry picking' which aspects are used and which date ranges are covered (or left out). |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 20, 2022 16:52:44 GMT
France, like UK, was probably hoping that by giving people info on a 'realistic worst case scenario' it would encourage people to reduce demand - especially for the 'peak demand' period. However, 'panic buying' can also occur
Blackout fears prompt French to snap up camping stoves, generatorswww.reuters.com/business/energy/blackout-fears-prompt-french-snap-up-camping-stoves-generators-2022-12-20/TBC if some people in EU countries adopt 'panic' behaviour to the news from yesterday concerning their gas price cap. For reasons given then the EU price cap will very likely never be triggered (and there are other loopholes and ways in which some countries can get around the cap anyway) but if someone in the EU believes the price cap will be triggered and that will then cause an end to EU imports of gas then.. well, anyone selling camping equipment is going to be very busy (until propane* runs out for propane gas stoves) NB For UK then in the very unlikely event the EU price cap did mean they stop importing gas then that is obviously good for UK import prices (for reasons already given, although that assumes people understand the basic economics of supply and demand). The other 'Bruce Foresight' bonus for UK is that the EU price cap MIGHT encourage further demand reduction in EU which will lower prices for the interconnected markets. I wouldn't go quite as far as to say that is a Brexit Bonus but it's quite handy to be out of the EU even if we are still part of interconnected Europe. No need to mention 'cake and eat it' due to the Entente and our own problems. * Not that I'd encourage anyone in the EU to start panic buying propane but given we saw panic buying of toilet roll into lockdown then you don't need Sir Keir's 'Bruce Foresight' powers to spot the 'Captain Obvious' way people will behave if they think something is going to run out. |
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Post by alec on Dec 21, 2022 22:24:26 GMT
www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-demand-trackerEU gas consumption down 27% compared to the 2019 - 2021 average. That's a very healthy cut in demand indeed, and testament to their efforts. Completely vindicates leftieliberal's points previously an makes Trevors claims seem somewhat petty. UK currently only 8% down (on 2021). Rather pathetic effort in comparison. Enough said.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 22, 2022 15:51:04 GMT
Mr Poppy An interesting article in New Statesman: www.newstatesman.com/economy/2022/12/why-is-the-bank-of-england-raising-interest-rates-when-inflation-has-peaked Some quotes I picked out. "The effects of this policy are laid bare in a report released yesterday by the energy company Drax. Researchers from Imperial College London concluded that as the UK went into autumn without any public information campaign on curbing energy use, gas demand was 4 per cent higher than in previous years. “In contrast, German gas demand was 17-33 per cent lower, and there is a similar story across France, Italy and Spain: all the largest economies in Europe have reduced the amount of gas they consume much further than Britain,” the report observed. "Overall the demand for gas in the UK has reduced by just 0.3 per cent when weather conditions are accounted for. Dr Iain Staffell, lead author of the report, said it showed the UK up as “an outlier on the world stage, showing no signs of reducing its appetite for gas during a time of dramatically higher prices”. As well as OEIS article I posted then below is from Bruegel. They don't show UK but (and I'll quote): "So far in 2022, we estimate that EU natural gas demand (which does not include storage filling) has declined 11% compared to the average from the period 2019 to 2021"Table1 shows all EU27 countries and shows YTD ranges from +5% in Slovakia to -53% in Finland www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-demand-trackerIf you/anyone wants to check specific countries to see how their energy mix has changed then you can use the 'map' I've posted before (picking selective countries and comparing the energy mix from the 5y to the 12months range). EG for Finland whose -53% YTD is very impressive you can see the changes in their energy mix. They've never been big users of gas, instead mostly using nuclear and hydro for electricity production. They have been weaning themselves off Russian gas for years but given they were shut off from Russian gas in May* that has become more urgent since. As mentioned several times then UK could copy other countries and 'temporarily'** burn more coal if the sole objective is to burn less gas. app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FISo UK is 'middle of the table' and could decide to temporarily pollute the planet a bit more to reduce gas demand further in UK (a decision that IMO we should do given coal is currently quite a lot cheaper than gas and so many other countries are 'temporarily' burning more coal to reduce gas demand). Anyway, given that you 'tagged' me for the original article you posted that started this discussion then can you give your opinion.
Is UK 'middle of the table' in reduction of gas demand compared to our neighbours in EU27 (even before the sadly belated govt campaign started)? YES/NO* www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/finlands-gas-flows-from-russia-to-be-shut-off-from-saturday-energy-provider.html** UK, like most countries, has belatedly increased the pace at which we will build renewables and made commitments to build new nuclear, hydrogen and storage facilities as well as expand N.Sea gas production but that will take time. UK (and several others) have quite a lot of new generation, that was planned before Putin invaded Ukraine, coming online in the next 12mths but as per previous info from OEIS (et al) then the 'Energy crisis' will last into next Winter - hence the 'temporary' use of more coal by some countries (but not yet UK). |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 22, 2022 20:43:17 GMT
Japan has quite a lot of similarity to UK (island nation with lots of potential for wind energy). They've realised nuclear is very useful to have 'in the mix' and have come up with a % that is in the same ballpark as an 'optimal' solution for UK (although it will take UK a bit longer to get to 20%ish and note that in the future 'electricity' will be a much larger part of total energy use - even though total energy demand will go down) Nuclear energy accounts for less than 7% of Japan's energy supply, but the government now wants to raise its share to 20-22% by the 2030 fiscal yearwww.dw.com/en/japan-plans-reversal-of-post-fukushima-nuclear-phase-out/a-64185316NB As stated many times then 'tidal' with short-term storage for smoothing could also provide 'base load' (nuclear style) electricity and I'm optimistic that LAB will 'green light' at least one tidal lagoon project soon into their first term. However, given the amount of electricity we will need in the future then that can be additional to 'getting on with it' on 'new-new' nuclear. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 23, 2022 0:49:02 GMT
Whilst factually correct then the importance of 'weather adjustments' for comparisons is highlighted in this link
German regulator: gas consumption up, savings target missedwww.reuters.com/business/energy/german-regulator-gas-consumption-up-savings-target-missed-2022-12-22/Obviously the weather does have a very significant impact on gas usage and if this Winter has a lot of 'cold dunkelflaute' weather then, whilst we'll still likely get through this Winter without any significant disruption, that relies on some ongoing imports from Russia (see Bruegel or OEIS analysis) and will leave gas storage levels lower at the end of this Winter than if we have 'warm, windy' weather. Next Winter is going to be tricky and, whilst reducing demand is obviously important, then ending this Winter with a higher level of retained storage across Europe will help. Given NW Europe typically has very similar weather (temps and wind) my Christmas and New Year wish is for warmer and windier weather for the rest of 2022 and all of 2023. As most governments are 'helping' by subsidising energy bills for households and businesses then most politicians and future tax payers will also be wishing for prolonged periods of 'warm windig'. |
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Post by alec on Dec 23, 2022 6:26:21 GMT
Indeed. No one knowledgeable about energy matters takes the idea of comparing efficiencies from year to year without taking weather and other usage related factors into account as serious analysis. That's why the ICL analysis is the one that matters, as that's what they did. And no one in the business is seriously trying to suggest that the UK has a good record on like for like energy savings arising from dedicated government action on efficiency. Because there hasn't been any. In contrast, the EU has delivered very significant like for like savings, because they acted early on legislative and information measures.
That doesn't necessarily translate into straightforward numbers on annual comparisons, because that isn't how energy analysis works, but great credit to the EU for being so proactive on this, big boo to UK HMG for it's hands off approach. The numbers tell a very clear story - you just have to bright enough to understand what they are saying. Not everyone is.
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Post by moby on Dec 23, 2022 7:20:28 GMT
Does anyone know if and if so when the Govmt is going to extend the energy support scheme to those of us who use heating oil. I've read that £100 is going to be added through energy accounts for people who do not have access to mains gas supply? I managed to order 500 litres for 79p a litre at the beginning of this month. Now it's rocketed in price again. Still not had it delivered though😩Just had an email that it will be delayed until the end of the month because of excessive demand.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 23, 2022 9:21:33 GMT
Could be some more news on RR's 'new-new' nuclear soon and given how long it seems to take EDF to build 'new-old' then IMO we'll have RR SMRs producing electricity before Sizewell C (although I appreciate that CON HMG couldn't 'dither and delay' any longer and had to make a decision on 'proven' tech). To be clear, any new nuclear we build will be INSTEAD OF renewables. Its a choice to do one or other, but not both. Renewable wind is of course fundamentally low tech and cheap. The basic idea of big sails and a geared drive system has been in use for a thousand years. nuclear is always cross subsidised by weapon manufacture. Is that also the case with the small RR reactors, that they are basically military ship propulsion units? |
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Post by Danny on Dec 23, 2022 9:46:11 GMT
NB As stated many times then 'tidal' with short-term storage for smoothing could also provide 'base load' (nuclear style) electricity and I'm optimistic that LAB will 'green light' at least one tidal lagoon project soon into their first term. However, given the amount of electricity we will need in the future then that can be additional to 'getting on with it' on 'new-new' nuclear. Interestingly I heard a discussion recently about tidal, where you can design it to be driven either by ponded tidal water or fastest moving tidal flow. The two methods peak at different parts of the tide, so a combination of the two can give a pretty good steady capacity without additional measures. However you keep mis-applying base load. Base load traditionally means the lowest demand at any time of day for electricity. This is an important figure in traditional generation because its how much must be always on, and then you need to add extra for parts of the day. This is a totally different concept to the intermittent nature of renewable energy, which peaks and dips depending on the weather/sun brightness/state of tide largely regardless of time of day when electricity is needed. Either problem means there is a need to fill gaps with extra generation. This has traditionally been done with gas generation as it is easiest to switch on and off fast. But then we moved to all generation from gas. Thermal plants require pre heating so there is some cost to keep on standby. However, nuclear cannot readily be switched off and on fast, but if you do switch it off, because most of its costs are static fixed equipment and staff, not fuel, even if you stop generating power you DO NOT SAVE MONEY! There is no point turning off nuclear. So when you propose using nuclear and renewables, you are proposing using two technologies which have no saving if deliberately turned off. Nuclear by itself could create 100% of power needed, and then it would be pointless building any wind. It would howver cost a lot more per kwh generated. If you instead build renewables, then as it stands today you would have power shortages to bridge when wind doesnt blow. But however you do that, it makes no sense to use nuclear, because if you use nuclear at all, then its cheaper to use it 100% of the time. Its either nuclear or renewables, not both, so you are proposing the Uk abandons cheap renewables in favour of expensive nuclear. You are going for deliverable 100% generation demand met, but at high cost. Thats a permanent harm to the Uk economy. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 23, 2022 19:41:02 GMT
...Given NW Europe typically has very similar weather (temps and wind)... Hence: Column: Europe should thank mild autumn for averting gas crisis this winterwww.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-should-thank-mild-autumn-averting-gas-crisis-this-winter-kemp-2022-12-16/Along with UK's LNG infrastructure (which helped them fill their storage), the decision by many countries (but not UK) to burn more coal to reduce gas demand, the ongoing (but reduced) imports some of rEurope still get from Russia and 'genuine' demand reduction due either to 'price' and/or raised awareness from supplier/regulator/press/govt information campaigns. It is obviously a combination of many factors. However, for sure the mild Autumn weather across all of NW Europe (which includes UK) was helpful. |
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