c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 17:16:58 GMT
Poster count up here in the NE on a 22 mile drive through the villages is Lab 7, GSC Grays Rural Land & Estate Agents 5. Looks like it's nip and tuck, but local schools are rated excellent and the constituency offers stunning views across rural Teesdale, all within easy reach of Newcastle. What are the letterboxes like Alec? According to leafleting theory, areas with more vexatious letterboxes see a decline in leafleting, which in turn affects the polling outcome, a factor insufficiently addressed in typical analyses. (There is a similar problem in areas with longer paths to the letterboxes on average. Possibly a Covid link too...) |
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Post by RAF on Jun 16, 2024 17:17:48 GMT
News from Beckenham and Penge.
Three leaflets/booklets have dropped. One from Labour's Liam Conlan with a LD style bar graph allegedly sourced from Electoral Calculus, putting Lab just behind the Tories with no-one else in the frame. What Mr Conlan does not say is that the graph is a representation on EC of what the 2019 result would have been in the wards that now comprise this new seat:(a mere 432 vote Con win) - not what EC projects the likely result to be as things stand (a lab win by 25%).
A glossy 6 pr 7 page booklet from the Tories with quite a lot of content focusing on local issues. No mention of Rishi Sunak or any national politics at all until the very last row on the final page. Just above the Sunak sentence there are a few columns on how Starner is supposedly a compulsive lier who just can't be trusted
A 3 or 4 page booklet from the LDs which is disappointingly light on detail, but does prominently feature Sunak, Truss and Johnson.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 17:20:03 GMT
Well, they’re all rubbish so why not just give BNP a go? I think they only sell to English people whose ancestry goes back beyond 1066 so it’s a limited clientele. Tell that to the BNP membership “committee “. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 17:22:51 GMT
Well, they’re all rubbish so why not just give BNP a go? I think they only sell to English people whose ancestry goes back beyond 1066 so it’s a limited clientele. Only if we weren’t genetically engineered in a lab and aren’t living in a simulation like in the Matrix |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 16, 2024 17:26:13 GMT
I appreciate the usually suspect holds liberal democrats to standards not required by any other politicians and that for some reason they could see through lies that were directed at politicians of all parties for nearly two decades , but the industrial level of lying that's being exposed in the Horizon enquiry has largely placed the culpability where it belongs. I find it very hard to understand how anyone who was seriously overseeing the Post office could have not thought something was wrong. The bottom line is half their postmasters were asked to pay back money, not just the thousand or so prosecuted. What seems most likely to have happened is that central government demands to make the PO ready for sale caused staff to hide disturbing facts. I find it impossible that even before Vennelles, no one realised there was a problem. Blame for what happened has to lie with government who were in charge, whether or not they deny responsibility. These obvious problems arose under labour and continued under con. The failure of the internal route to sorting this out has not been investigated or explained. What actually happened was a victim managed to interest the press because they could find enough people who had been prosecuted that it was already incredible they were all lying, never mind the real numbers of x100 more affected which had to be known to the PO. Funny that Davey has been singled out for attack. |
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Post by James E on Jun 16, 2024 17:36:52 GMT
Ignore Batty. He’s a known troublemaker. Quite violent too. I need some advice. England defeats usually provide easy revenge targets after the games. If we lose to Germany, for example, parked BMWs near pubs can be vandalised. If we've lost to Greece, Greek owned fish and chips shops can be ransacked. Kebab outlets if the Turks have turned us over, parked Renaults torched if it's the French. Most countries have convenient recipients for our righteous rage, but what the hell do we do with the Serbs? Foreign made cars seem to be the favourite target, so it should be obvious what will to be targeted this time. Saabs. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 16, 2024 17:37:24 GMT
News from Beckenham and Penge. Three leaflets/booklets have dropped. One from Labour's Liam Conlan with a LD style bar graph allegedly sourced from Electoral Calculus, putting Lab just behind the Tories with no-one else in the frame. What Mr Conlan does not say is that the graph is a representation on EC of what the 2019 result would have been in the wards that now comprise this new seat:(a mere 432 vote Con win) - not what EC projects the likely result to be as things stand (a lab win by 25%). Best bar chart award, inevitably, goes to the Lib Dems in Islington North- can't see anyone beating this: x.com/alexnunns/status/1802371824098930918 |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 16, 2024 17:41:10 GMT
Tories removing 15-year limit on voting while living abroad will have little effect. Fewer than 200,000 Britons living abroad apply to vote in UK electionFewer than 200,000 of the estimated 3.5 million British people living abroad for more than 15 years have applied to vote in the UK general election despite the change in law in January returning their right to participate in the ballot. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 16, 2024 17:45:34 GMT
Tories removing 15-year limit on voting while living abroad will have little effect. Fewer than 200,000 Britons living abroad apply to vote in UK electionFewer than 200,000 of the estimated 3.5 million British people living abroad for more than 15 years have applied to vote in the UK general election despite the change in law in January returning their right to participate in the ballot. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 16, 2024 17:47:36 GMT
Britain Elect modelling update - looks pretty good to me x.com/BritainElects/status/1802305636635419004MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today? LAB: 441 MPs (+241) CON: 96 (-276) LDEM: 66 (+58) SNP: 22 (-26) PC: 3 (+1) REF: 2 (+2) GRN: 1 (-) via Britain Predicts, 16 Jun I have to say that the Britain Elects prediction for Rayleigh and Wickford looks far closer to the mark than Survation. CON lead, with Reform coming second, and Labour quite a long way back. That matches with what I know of the area, and the people I've talked to. Sadly. So we'll have to put up with Mark Francois in the next parliament after all, unless he gets beaten by the Reform candidate. Hobson's Choice. |
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Post by peterbell on Jun 16, 2024 18:04:23 GMT
Generally I would agree that everybody is welcome to their own opinion…but within limits, especially on a public site. But surely the recent post from Danny goes beyond acceptable limits for virtually everybody - apart from danny of course - who contributes to or just reads this site? “ Nazis were demonised because they lost WW2, and then subject to show trials. Had germany won then this quite likely would have played out in reverse. This isnt about whether their policies were right or wrong, it’s about how such things are never black and white until portrayed so by one or other propaganda machine.” The response from nickpoole on the final page of the previous thread hits the nail on the head. It is worth a read. Paul, as I have said previously, the best way is just to block him. |
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Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 18:09:56 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "What are the letterboxes like Alec?" We're talking the villages here Carfrew - and not those 'former pit villages' in the east of the county either. We don't have letterboxes. You need to go round the back and hand the mail to the butler, or the housekeeper for the less well off. If you're one of the fabled 'rural poor', the leaflets go into the post box at the end of the drive.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 18:13:47 GMT
Generally I would agree that everybody is welcome to their own opinion…but within limits, especially on a public site. But surely the recent post from Danny goes beyond acceptable limits for virtually everybody - apart from danny of course - who contributes to or just reads this site? “ Nazis were demonised because they lost WW2, and then subject to show trials. Had germany won then this quite likely would have played out in reverse. This isnt about whether their policies were right or wrong, it’s about how such things are never black and white until portrayed so by one or other propaganda machine.” The response from nickpoole on the final page of the previous thread hits the nail on the head. It is worth a read. Christ - Danny's list of dodgey postings is quite something - arguments for peadoephillia and now "Nazi-Germany is villified because they lost" - cant this intellecutally deceiptful, nasty-minded dodge pot be kicked off the forum? You left out the ones where he argues old people who become ill should be left to die because its more efficient. Also the posts in defence of sexual assault. |
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Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 18:16:56 GMT
Not getting much attention, but this is actually a massive story - www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/16/almost-half-uk-adults-struggling-prescription-drugs-medicine-shortagesIt's a Brexit shit show, but more than that. Many countries around the world have drug shortages at record levels, arising from the notable surging sickness following covid infections. But Brexit makes it far worse in the UK. This is the stuff that people die from, and it should be a matter of national priority. But let's instead focus on trying to book massively expensive flights to Rwanda and quibbling about who can use which toilet. A bunch of total arseholes. |
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Post by Mark on Jun 16, 2024 18:18:30 GMT
*** ADMIN ***
I have given Danny a week off from UKPR2 in the hope that he has a think about why it is unacceptable to make nazi-apologist posts.
That such posts have no place anywhere, let alone here, is something that really shouldn't need to be said.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 16, 2024 18:23:59 GMT
Hooligan update. Before we launch into knee-jerk condemnation of English football fans, and despite my jokery I'm no apologist for hooliganism and thuggery, it's by no means certain that it was English fans who attacked the Serbs drinking outside a bar in Gelsenkirchen. It may have been Albanians, who would probably have non-football related motives for the violent attack. These are unreported reports but the German police aren't denying or confirming them yet.
x.com/Swaggzeez1/status/1802352262859174108 |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 16, 2024 18:28:11 GMT
Hooligan update. Before we launch into knee-jerk condemnation of English football fans, and despite my jokery I'm no apologist for hooliganism and thuggery, it's by no means certain that it was English fans who attacked the Serbs drinking outside a bar in Gelsenkirchen. It may have been Albanians, who would probably have non-football related motives for the violent attack. These are unreported reports but the German police aren't denying or confirming them yet.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 16, 2024 18:32:49 GMT
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Post by chrisc on Jun 16, 2024 18:35:04 GMT
Tories removing 15-year limit on voting while living abroad will have little effect. Fewer than 200,000 Britons living abroad apply to vote in UK electionFewer than 200,000 of the estimated 3.5 million British people living abroad for more than 15 years have applied to vote in the UK general election despite the change in law in January returning their right to participate in the ballot.And my left wing old school friend who now lives in Japan and can’t wait to use his vote. It’s the ID saga all over again. The good thing about this government’s incompetence is that it extends into their attempts at gerrymandering. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 18:35:16 GMT
I see she can also fight headwinds, so might be useful for the Tory party |
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Post by chrisc on Jun 16, 2024 18:39:16 GMT
News from Beckenham and Penge. Three leaflets/booklets have dropped. One from Labour's Liam Conlan with a LD style bar graph allegedly sourced from Electoral Calculus, putting Lab just behind the Tories with no-one else in the frame. What Mr Conlan does not say is that the graph is a representation on EC of what the 2019 result would have been in the wards that now comprise this new seat:(a mere 432 vote Con win) - not what EC projects the likely result to be as things stand (a lab win by 25%). Best bar chart award, inevitably, goes to the Lib Dems in Islington North- can't see anyone beating this: x.com/alexnunns/status/1802371824098930918Having said that it would be hilarious if the Lib Dem’s came through the middle to win in Islington. |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jun 16, 2024 18:39:27 GMT
when you copy and paste the URL as before using insert embed, then replace x.com with twitter.com
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Post by chrisc on Jun 16, 2024 18:45:50 GMT
Ignore Batty. He’s a known troublemaker. Quite violent too. I need some advice. England defeats usually provide easy revenge targets after the games. If we lose to Germany, for example, parked BMWs near pubs can be vandalised. If we've lost to Greece, Greek owned fish and chips shops can be ransacked. Kebab outlets if the Turks have turned us over, parked Renaults torched if it's the French. Most countries have convenient recipients for our righteous rage, but what the hell do we do with the Serbs? Not just the Serbs. What were we supposed to do when Croatia knocked us out of the World Cup at the semi finals? With the British (OK, English) so happy to be warlike and prejudiced at times - and the Balkans being one of the most fought over parts of the world - the intersection between English hatred and any of the Balkan states is surprisingly small. |
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Post by davem on Jun 16, 2024 18:46:39 GMT
Update from Hexham.
Still seeing a lot of Tories switching to Labour. The poster and signboard campaign is totally one sided Labour lead by a ratio of 20 to 1.
The surprising development is that the Green candidate has taken to social media to endorse the Labour candidate, not the Labour Party but the candidate.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 16, 2024 18:52:32 GMT
I had to read it several times before I twigged that what she meant was fighting for community pubs. Its not clear whether that means pubs owned by the community or just keeping open local pubs in villages. It's an example of the old adage that you should never proof-read what you write but always get someone else to do it. |
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Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 18:52:51 GMT
Mark - never like to see anyone banned, but thank you for taking action today. The comments were totally uncalled for and deserved sanction.
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Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 18:53:43 GMT
Meanwhile, have we seen this? -
This projection looks to be on the low end of forecast Labour majorities?
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Post by reggieside on Jun 16, 2024 18:54:32 GMT
Christ - Danny's list of dodgey postings is quite something - arguments for peadoephillia and now "Nazi-Germany is villified because they lost" - cant this intellecutally deceiptful, nasty-minded dodge pot be kicked off the forum? You left out the ones where he argues old people who become ill should be left to die because its more efficient. Also the posts in defence of sexual assault. Ah - yes - id forgotten the enforeced euphanasia argument. fucking soicopath. |
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Post by ping on Jun 16, 2024 18:55:05 GMT
I like how being 10% to the Lib Dem's 17% puts the Tories "a distant third"  |
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Post by James E on Jun 16, 2024 19:01:34 GMT
alecPolling Report's 'default model' is something described as 'incumbent weighted' which produces fewer gains per point of swing then even Uniform National Swing. There have been elections where such a model might have served well, such as 2001 or 2015 (when first time incumbents did especially well), but it is a useless model for 2024.
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