|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Jun 16, 2024 19:10:30 GMT
Meanwhile, have we seen this? - This projection looks to be on the low end of forecast Labour majorities? Yes, but I don't understand how they get from published opinion polls to their seat projections. |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jun 16, 2024 19:31:56 GMT
*** ADMIN *** I have given Danny a week off from UKPR2 in the hope that he has a think about why it is unacceptable to make nazi-apologist posts. That such posts have no place anywhere, let alone here, is something that really shouldn't need to be said. Well good, I now feel able to come back for a week. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 20:05:01 GMT
Meanwhile, have we seen this? - This projection looks to be on the low end of forecast Labour majorities? They have been all along. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 20:06:14 GMT
*** ADMIN *** I have given Danny a week off from UKPR2 in the hope that he has a think about why it is unacceptable to make nazi-apologist posts. That such posts have no place anywhere, let alone here, is something that really shouldn't need to be said. Well good, I now feel able to come back for a week. Yeah… it’s hardly very long is it? |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jun 16, 2024 20:30:51 GMT
soph, welcome. It should be quite nice round here for a while.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 16, 2024 20:34:56 GMT
leftieliberalLong-term international residents wanted to vote in the Brexit referendum as it directly impacted them they've no massive interest in voting for a U.K. Government. I'd have been the same if I'd remained in Spain.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jun 16, 2024 20:55:07 GMT
Good to see the Irons late entry saving the game ….
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 21:05:22 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "What are the letterboxes like Alec?" We're talking the villages here Carfrew - and not those 'former pit villages' in the east of the county either. We don't have letterboxes. You need to go round the back and hand the mail to the butler, or the housekeeper for the less well off. If you're one of the fabled 'rural poor', the leaflets go into the post box at the end of the drive. Thanks for your input regarding leafleting theory Alec, which will now need to be updated to take into account phenomena like the absence of letterboxes, and replacement with post boxes. (The related Covid model will also need to be adjusted to take into account the increased personal contact and hence likelihood of infection resulting from handing the leaflet to a butler. It seems an opportunity to use drone tech to deliver leaflets, which may not only reduce infection, but also give PJ a bit more of a break and reduce leaflet-related injury due to unsafe letterboxes) |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 21:09:25 GMT
The other UKPR are not convinced that Reform have overtaken the Conservatives. I am intrigued by the counter-intuitive statement I have highlighted:
"As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place the Conservatives significantly ahead of Reform.
Are Reform really ahead of the Conservatives? According to JL Partners the answer is probably not. They also think that Labour is possibly losing votes to Reform and the Greens are almost certainly losing votes to Reform.
The long anticipated “crossover poll” came in the form of a YouGov poll that has Reform on 19% ahead of the Conservatives. It is at the moment an outlier and it looks, again according to Scarlett Maguire, “like for once, the hair-on-fire excitement it has generated is not simply a result of being the latest poll. It seems YouGov are genuinely seeing things not reflected in other samples”.
Four other polls in the following days showed the Conservatives ahead of Reform, Redfield and Wilton having them at 17% just one point behind the Conservatives.
There is a suspicion that YouGov's change in methodology might be benefiting Reform, as they have changed over to MrP modelling all results. But previous modelling figures are even more clear cut and have suggested a complete wipe out for the Conservative Party at Westminster – Labour: 40% Reform: 18% Con: 15% LD: 14% Green: 7%. There is a sizable disagreement on the width of the Conservative-Reform gap. YouGov and Redfield and Wilton have this slight gap at just 1 percentage point; however, other pollsters believe the margin to be significantly wider.Including JLP at 9 points and Survation at 11. While it is likely that other polls will show Reform ahead, a crossover in the averages is far less likely, but not impossible."
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 21:15:35 GMT
Interesting to see that being a right wing populist doesn't necessarily mean being soft on Putin -
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 21:26:11 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 21:37:35 GMT
I need some advice. England defeats usually provide easy revenge targets after the games. If we lose to Germany, for example, parked BMWs near pubs can be vandalised. If we've lost to Greece, Greek owned fish and chips shops can be ransacked. Kebab outlets if the Turks have turned us over, parked Renaults torched if it's the French. Most countries have convenient recipients for our righteous rage, but what the hell do we do with the Serbs? Not just the Serbs. What were we supposed to do when Croatia knocked us out of the World Cup at the semi finals? With the British (OK, English) so happy to be warlike and prejudiced at times - and the Balkans being one of the most fought over parts of the world - the intersection between English hatred and any of the Balkan states is surprisingly small. We've bombed them a few times en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_CroatiaBut you're right about it being fought over a lot. I only skimmed through looking for our flag, but they seem to have been almost continuously at war for hundreds of years. Oh and it's now come out that all the fans arrested at the altercation were Serbian. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 21:43:46 GMT
*** ADMIN *** I have given Danny a week off from UKPR2 in the hope that he has a think about why it is unacceptable to make nazi-apologist posts. That such posts have no place anywhere, let alone here, is something that really shouldn't need to be said. Well good, I now feel able to come back for a week. Longer than that I hope. Danny does sometimes make interesting points, but I must say that some of his posts have been so far beyond the pale that even I tend to skip past most of his stuff, and I do try to read most posts. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 21:47:51 GMT
mandolinist - It's lovely to have you back. I do wish you could find your way to ignore Danny's offensive musings and stay permanently - otherwise he's won. Also good to see soph . That post on AI looks to have been one of the most liked posts for a very long time. It sounds ominously like we have someone intelligent posting. First time for everything, I guess.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 16, 2024 21:59:46 GMT
I think it's davem posting from the campaign trail in Hexham (apologies if I've got that wrong). It's very interesting to hear the reports from what is our next door constituency. I never dreamed that Hexham would ever be in play as a Labour possibility, but these are extraordinary times. Labour would need a swing of 12% or so to take the seat, although I understand that boundary changes mean it now includes a ward formerly in one of the Newcastle seats, which might be less Tory (although this would be on the leafier west edge of the city I think). The reports match what I'm picking up here. While both the constituencies are heavily rural (Hexham more so) that doesn't mean farming dominates, but the agricultural sector does provide traditionally a strong backbone of Conservative support. It's never been as overwhelmingly blue as some assume, particularly in the more upland areas, but it is generally a banker for Conservatives in this kind of seat. My anecdotal evidence backs up media reports though, and there is a sense of a complete loss of trust among many farmers and connected sectors. Whether that means many switchers to Labour is harder to tell, but it would seem there are very few left prepared to happily vote for Conservative candidates. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jun 16, 2024 22:22:54 GMT
Interesting to see that being a right wing populist doesn't necessarily mean being soft on Putin - Meloni has been surprising on this especially as Italians of any political stripe tend to be reality averse when it comes to international security. You'll often come across 'Pace' flags there, especially in the cities, but this is normally only directed towards the US and Israel and not non Western countries like Russia towards whom a lot of Italians seem to be oddly ambivalent to borderline sympathetic. I recently read an extraordinary nonsense opinion piece in the left of centre daily La Stampa accusing the German defence secretary Boris Pistorius of all people of being the most terrible war-monger. I ended my subscription. I'm afraid as long as they can keep the 'dolce vita' most Italians are happy to roll over and let international bullies do what they want, as long as that bully is not the US of course.. Italy has provided tiny amounts of aid to Ukraine and the optics of this G7 aside is generally a blank space when it comes to international diplomacy and security which when you think about it is extraordinary for a country with a population not far off that of France but it's always been the case. I like Italy and have always had Italian friends but the country is just a backward looking basket case in the western world and I can't see that changing. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 23:05:40 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 23:12:54 GMT
A simple thing to do, and so obvious. |
|
|
|
Post by davem on Jun 16, 2024 23:22:09 GMT
I think it's davem posting from the campaign trail in Hexham (apologies if I've got that wrong). It's very interesting to hear the reports from what is our next door constituency. I never dreamed that Hexham would ever be in play as a Labour possibility, but these are extraordinary times. Labour would need a swing of 12% or so to take the seat, although I understand that boundary changes mean it now includes a ward formerly in one of the Newcastle seats, which might be less Tory (although this would be on the leafier west edge of the city I think). The reports match what I'm picking up here. While both the constituencies are heavily rural (Hexham more so) that doesn't mean farming dominates, but the agricultural sector does provide traditionally a strong backbone of Conservative support. It's never been as overwhelmingly blue as some assume, particularly in the more upland areas, but it is generally a banker for Conservatives in this kind of seat. My anecdotal evidence backs up media reports though, and there is a sense of a complete loss of trust among many farmers and connected sectors. Whether that means many switchers to Labour is harder to tell, but it would seem there are very few left prepared to happily vote for Conservative candidates. Yes I am responsible for the updates from Hexham. I have to say that I am genuine surprised by the response on the doorsteps. Every time I go out I find lifelong Tories saying they are voting Labour. Areas such as Corbridge, which has never been Labour is looking very Labour. On the farming issue, I understand that the President of the local NFU, is voting Labour for the first time ever. I have had Tory Party members saying they can’t vote Tory, a former Deputy Leader of the Tory group on the County Council backing Labour. If what I am been told on the doorsteps is true and happening elsewhere then for outlandish claims of Tory meltdown could be true and the more fanciful for claims of Ed Davy being Leader of the Opposition, might just happen. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 0:09:21 GMT
I think it's davem posting from the campaign trail in Hexham (apologies if I've got that wrong). It's very interesting to hear the reports from what is our next door constituency. I never dreamed that Hexham would ever be in play as a Labour possibility, but these are extraordinary times. Labour would need a swing of 12% or so to take the seat, although I understand that boundary changes mean it now includes a ward formerly in one of the Newcastle seats, which might be less Tory (although this would be on the leafier west edge of the city I think). The reports match what I'm picking up here. While both the constituencies are heavily rural (Hexham more so) that doesn't mean farming dominates, but the agricultural sector does provide traditionally a strong backbone of Conservative support. It's never been as overwhelmingly blue as some assume, particularly in the more upland areas, but it is generally a banker for Conservatives in this kind of seat. My anecdotal evidence backs up media reports though, and there is a sense of a complete loss of trust among many farmers and connected sectors. Whether that means many switchers to Labour is harder to tell, but it would seem there are very few left prepared to happily vote for Conservative candidates. I taught for many years in Hexham, have family living there and lived in Hexhamshire (beautiful farmhouse/nine acres, for ten years). It always had a *feel* about it that made me feel uneasy - a sort of ‘poshness’ for want of a better word. Barnard Castle feels completely different and we are really comfortable here. I still feel that when we visit Hexham but would be so pleased if they threw off their Tory mantle. It would be a good start. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 0:14:20 GMT
Generally I would agree that everybody is welcome to their own opinion…but within limits, especially on a public site. But surely the recent post from Danny goes beyond acceptable limits for virtually everybody - apart from danny of course - who contributes to or just reads this site? “ Nazis were demonised because they lost WW2, and then subject to show trials. Had germany won then this quite likely would have played out in reverse. This isnt about whether their policies were right or wrong, it’s about how such things are never black and white until portrayed so by one or other propaganda machine.” The response from nickpoole on the final page of the previous thread hits the nail on the head. It is worth a read. Paul, as I have said previously, the best way is just to block him. But it’s not just for me Peter, it’s for everybody - and particularly the casual reader who is considering contributing and is put off by his posts. If he’s reading this and planning to return then I can promise him that I will highlight every offensive post he makes until he either stops making them or - for whatever reason - stops posting altogether. Paul ps We are up in Low Newton again in July if you’re around? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 0:16:34 GMT
Am up late as our kitchen just flooded. Had to call out the Water Board who were brilliant - but I got very wet, nackered from baling out and am exhausted now.
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jun 17, 2024 0:25:16 GMT
A simple thing to do, and so obvious. Yes and no - as a weapon available to moderators to rein in someone who's derailing it then very much yes. If it's used a default from the start, then combined with the lack of studio audience it realistically means the moderators become the sole check on candidates ignoring the questions and just making endless rehearsed statements and generally talking past each other for 90 minutes. Sure they'll interject at times to try to press for a more direct answer etc but they can't do it very often or they'll quickly run out of time. If I were being very cynical (moi?) I'd even go so far as to suggest that might be a key reason this rather unusual "debate" seems to be happening at all - a negotiated format that minimises the risk to either and lets two candidates who declined every invitation to debate their rivals for their respective party nominations both say "there, we did it, we did Debating" and go back to their much preferred styles of campaigning. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,377
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jun 17, 2024 4:59:08 GMT
A simple thing to do, and so obvious. Yes and no - as a weapon available to moderators to rein in someone who's derailing it then very much yes. If it's used a default from the start, then combined with the lack of studio audience it realistically means the moderators become the sole check on candidates ignoring the questions and just making endless rehearsed statements and generally talking past each other for 90 minutes. Sure they'll interject at times to try to press for a more direct answer etc but they can't do it very often or they'll quickly run out of time. If I were being very cynical (moi?) I'd even go so far as to suggest that might be a key reason this rather unusual "debate" seems to be happening at all - a negotiated format that minimises the risk to either and lets two candidates who declined every invitation to debate their rivals for their respective party nominations both say "there, we did it, we did Debating" and go back to their much preferred styles of campaigning. But we know from past experience Trump will constantly interrupt from the start Best to set the ground rules from the off so all knowthe rules. If they do it half way through Trump will claim a conspiracy to silence him |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 6:33:58 GMT
"The first US presidential debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump on 27 June will include two commercial breaks, no props and muted microphones except when recognized to speak, CNN said Saturday.”
Whether this actually takes place at all is debatable☺
The traitor is already bleating about being muzzled and the bias of the communist fake news CNN hosts.
If anyone has watched any of Trumps diversions from teleprompted commentary they'll have experienced the bizarre , dangerous often deranged stream of consciousness that emerges, Trump often " glitches " this is when he gets half way through saying something, forgets what he's saying or how to say the words he's using and goes off on a completely deranged tangent.
Biden on the other hand does suffer from normal age related memory loss, can become confused over time lines , but is in general coherent, doesn't diverge into complete cobblers made up stories, is fact based in his commentary and in general in charge of his mental faculties, he does suffer from a stammer which can appear to make him seem a tad more confused and he looks ancient.
Muting the traitor when he goes off topic or as he inevitably will talks over both the adjudicator and President Biden is going to be challenging as basically that's all a trump speech consists of.A whiney stream of lies and fabrications faux victimhood interspersed with a huge portion of narcissistic fascist megalomania.
It should enlighten some as to the relative merits of the candidates.
But frankly the maga cult simply doesn't care that their leader is insane.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 6:38:52 GMT
For those who feel the need of advice on tactical voting, this website from best for Britain will be up and running from 10am this morning. www.getvoting.org |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 17, 2024 6:51:07 GMT
@fecklessmiser - sorry to hear about your flooding. Is that a plumbing issue, or the recent rainfall?
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 6:56:31 GMT
alecYou shouldn't talk to men of a certain age about plumbing issues! May your kitchen be a haven of dryness soon Paul.
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jun 17, 2024 7:19:22 GMT
Morning everyone! So during elections I tend to periodically glance at the BBC website (and others) to see what headlines they have. Currently, top page (which you see when you land on the page) there are 4 pictures of Farage, none of Sunak!
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 7:19:31 GMT
The election campaign until now has been a dreary affair. Apart of course for Sir Ed, he appears to be as an unbiased observer of course☺ to be navigating the thin line between cringe worthy and embarrassing remarkably well and is living his best life. It's fun , gets coverage and judging by polling effective. Here's some of the highlights/pratfalls I must admit I think he pulls off the linen suit look pretty well. www.itv.com/news/2024-06-13/lib-dem-leader-ed-davey-treated-to-a-summer-makeover-on-this-morning |
|
