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Post by nickpoole on Jun 19, 2024 7:10:52 GMT
actually it's All over, people changing votes Along with their overcoats If Adolf Hitler flew in today They'd send a limousine anyway Nevertheless, I am sure you are aware, live performances often result in lyric variations (I am, myself, particularly guilty of this.). I am quoting a live performance at the Lyceum Ballroom in 1978 (which incidentally, was my favourite live music location ever - the Only Ones and the Buzzcocks being the best gigs there that I experienced - until I discovered The Market Bar in Inverness...) It is, however, clearly of no consequence. I was at 2 of those 5 nights at the Lyceum - also saw the Only Ones there I don’t remember exactly the words sung to White Man on those 2 occasions as was probably belting out a butchered version of my own |
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Post by nickpoole on Jun 19, 2024 7:24:46 GMT
There’s some great live footage of the Clash on the film Rude Boy and you can now easily avoid any of the rest of the film
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 7:28:58 GMT
Outside a pub in Nailsea  |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 19, 2024 7:35:38 GMT
Seems reasonable to me. I am expecting to both watch and hear Scotland tonight, though I should know better by now |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 19, 2024 7:36:12 GMT
An interesting late campaign quest for a Champions League place there from dark horses Whitestone Insight and Focaldata. I think More in Common have gone, to be honest. They need snookers now in their desperate fight for survival. A shame, because they'd started the season so well. Deltapoll the Man City of pollsters. Absolute Rolls Royce of an outfit. Interesting that People Polling's innovative tactic of putting the Conservatives on 18 or 19% of the vote, once so mocked and derided, has now been copied by most of their competitors, with the result that PP have stopped hovering near the top of the league and slumped down to mid-table mediocrity.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 7:48:17 GMT
In fake news U.S. edition disgraced former president, criminal Donald Trump has been pumping out his love for the black population with a visit to a " black " church. Saying 8000 attended. The mainstream media engaged in zero fact checking yet again despite knowing that trump and his cult are pathological liars. They should. The "180 Church" in Michigan is a controversial church the congregation are in dispute with the pastor over his behaviour, it has a capacity of about 600, the church was hired by the trump cult for the day and here's a picture of the " black" audience in the three quarters empty church, if you are wondering why 90% are white you wouldn't be alone. This is basic grade gas lighting , it occurs on both sides of the Atlantic and it's enabled by the abject failure of the legacy media to engage in even basic checks on the veracity of the report.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 8:14:12 GMT
Comedy gold from question time as a refuker plant in the audience engaged in epic level cognitive dissonance saying that if " nonessential immigration " isn't cut she would emigrate! youtu.be/H_TnhJvU2JM?si=zSMy-esjZY0Hw37b |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 19, 2024 8:21:49 GMT
Survation
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for
@gmb Poll 2/4:
CON 20% (-3)
LAB 41% (-)
LD 12% (+2)
REF 15% (+3)
GRE 6% (-)
SNP 2% (-1)
OTH 5% (+1)
F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 19, 2024 8:21:52 GMT
Tonight I listened to the Climate and Nature Debate. It's been years since I listened to any kind of political debate - at some point I just fell out of love with formats that mainly reward rhetorical skill - so I'd forgotten what they're like. This one was more of a hustings as there was very little interaction between the panel members, so there wasn't much political point-scoring. There were representatives from Con (under-secretary in Defra), Lab (Shadow Defra Minister), LD (leader in Lords, manifesto author) and Green (co-leader). As debaters/panellists the Con and Green reps did best, although the Con woman was handicapped by her material (there's only so much you can say when your government has made little or no progress towards the targets it set itself) and the LD guy was weakest - his manner was a bit slow and vague (possibly age-related slowness, he was easily the oldest of the bunch). Just for fun (and to make sure I listened properly) I ranked them for their responses to all the questions to create a rough index of performance. In a generally unimpressive field (if it had been a competition I wouldn't have awarded a gold medal) the LD emerged ahead of the others - of the four, he was the one I would want in a climate or nature role in the next government. The Con gave the most impressive opening statement: it was a good summary of what the government has done and she managed to present it as a sound, well-designed foundation for future work. The Lab guy was very weak, clearly reading a speech someone else had written for him, and didn't sound as if he believed or cared about any of it. On the questions, I'd expected stronger responses from the Green, particularly to the question about how to join up all the various strands of climate and environment policy and create a coherent framework for action. The Lab guy came to life when he had a chance to talk about Lab's GB Energy plans - it was transparently obvious that energy policy is the ONLY aspect of climate and environment on which Lab has done any serious thinking! The LD guy managed to mention more half-decent policy ideas than the others, but he didn't convince me that he understood why they were important - possibly because he wasn't very sharp - and I wouldn't back him to win a fight with the Treasury (I'd take the Con woman for that I think). What was really disappointing though, was that after the political panel they had a panel consisting of representatives of key stakeholder organisations, who answered questions about the quality of the politicians' responses to the earlier questions, and they were ALL much more impressive than any of the politicians: much greater command of relevant evidence and policies, comfortable - eager - to talk about the bigger picture, the magnitude of the challenges and useful first steps etc. etc. I gave the RSPB woman a silent round of applause when she talked about the need to stop thinking about everything in terms of GDP and about the challenge of comparing nature-based solutions to engineered flood defences - a fairly simple point that not even the Green Party co-leader had been capable of making. I'm not sure what the Green Party is for if its spokespeople aren't capable of making the case for Green policies and on the basis of what I've read and heard in this election campaign, they aren't. Where was this debate? I'd be interested in listening if it is/was on some medium that I have access to. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 8:35:53 GMT
neiljI could live with that leader of the opposition Sir Ed Davey
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Post by pete on Jun 19, 2024 8:42:31 GMT
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Post by alec on Jun 19, 2024 8:44:49 GMT
steve - "I could live with that leader of the opposition Sir Ed Davey" Would his wife be OK with that? Or your wife, come to that?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 19, 2024 8:47:19 GMT
Survation NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @gmb Poll 2/4: CON 20% (-3) LAB 41% (-) LD 12% (+2) REF 15% (+3) GRE 6% (-) SNP 2% (-1) OTH 5% (+1) F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024 Sticking this into EC as well as the usual stonking Labour majority and the Lib Dems getting 62 seats to the Tories 58, they also have 3 RefUK (Ashfield, Boston & Skegness and Clacton) and 5 Labour losses - Sheffield Hallam to the Lib Dems, Bristol Central to the Greens, Islington North to Jeremy Corbyn, Birmingham Ladywood to the Independent Muslim candidate and Rochdale to Galloway. Whatever happens with those others I am unconvinced by the last one. The Muslim population of Rochdale is c30%. Even if all of them voted for Galloway - which they won't - I doubt the old fraud is going to get much support among the rest of the population. I can see a ganging up 'get rid of Galloway' vote heading Labour's way there. After all, when Galloway won the by-election Labour didn't even have a candidate. |
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Post by dodger on Jun 19, 2024 8:47:52 GMT
For those who are interested in tactical voting here's a site with a proven track record in both general and local elections. Again this is not aligned to any particular party. stopthetories.voteOver the last few weeks, I have been putting post codes from random marginal constituencies according to yougov and now IPSOS's seat predictions into this site and all it ever comes back with is "Your Tactical Vote Coming soon We're waiting until more polling is released to confirm our advice here."
e.g I looked up the post code for a post office in Suella Bravermans constituency - PO16 0AG
stopthetories.vote/parl/fareham-and-waterlooville
Well done to them for building the site, they are probably making FPTP easier for many, but at some point they are going to have to put the big boy pants on and choose a pollster to track.
Maybe in the future we might see online local hustings and surveys to get behind a specific candidate.
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 19, 2024 9:09:07 GMT
alecThanks for identifying your post. I have replied to it in the wrong thread! but I'll transfer it over later. Its too nice a day to spend more time on here.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,574
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 19, 2024 9:12:38 GMT
For those who are interested in tactical voting here's a site with a proven track record in both general and local elections. Again this is not aligned to any particular party. stopthetories.voteOver the last few weeks, I have been putting post codes from random marginal constituencies according to yougov and now IPSOS's seat predictions into this site and all it ever comes back with is "Your Tactical Vote Coming soon We're waiting until more polling is released to confirm our advice here."
e.g I looked up the post code for a post office in Suella Bravermans constituency - PO16 0AG
stopthetories.vote/parl/fareham-and-waterlooville
Well done to them for building the site, they are probably making FPTP easier for many, but at some point they are going to have to put the big boy pants on and choose a pollster to track.
Maybe in the future we might see online local hustings and surveys to get behind a specific candidate.
Especially as postal voting has started. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 19, 2024 9:14:50 GMT
YouGov @yougov 🚨 MRP ALERT / YouGov will be releasing our second MRP of the election campaign today at 5pm - set your watches! |
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Post by norbold on Jun 19, 2024 9:19:30 GMT
However, Labour's 'vote' has remained steady. That I think shows that it's resilient. I just hope that art also indicates a determined group of people. If so, then the 5th could be a really wonderful day as opposed to just a wonderful one. Here's hoping. That's all very well for you, but just give a thought to some of us on that fateful day as, while everyone throughout the land is rejoicing and celebrating the great dawn of a new era, some of us may (I'm not saying will at this stage) be living under a heavy dark black cloud in our own particular constituency. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 19, 2024 9:24:03 GMT
However, Labour's 'vote' has remained steady. That I think shows that it's resilient. I just hope that art also indicates a determined group of people. If so, then the 5th could be a really wonderful day as opposed to just a wonderful one. Here's hoping. That's all very well for you, but just give a thought to some of us on that fateful day as, while everyone throughout the land is rejoicing and celebrating the great dawn of a new era, some of us may (I'm not saying will at this stage) be living under a heavy dark black cloud in our own particular constituency. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,574
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 19, 2024 9:29:33 GMT
That's all very well for you, but just give a thought to some of us on that fateful day as, while everyone throughout the land is rejoicing and celebrating the great dawn of a new era, some of us may (I'm not saying will at this stage) be living under a heavy dark black cloud in our own particular constituency. Be fair, dark black clouds are always a problem for a seaside resort. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 9:29:54 GMT
alec He's looking very dapper in his linen suit, but I think I'll give that one a miss. 
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 19, 2024 9:33:11 GMT
Bad news for Douglas Ross as Labour suspend their candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno
He needed as many SNP/Labour swingers as possible to vote Lab, not SNP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 9:45:22 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I have been putting post codes from random marginal constituencies according to yougov and now IPSOS's seat predictions into this site and all it ever comes back with is "Your Tactical Vote Coming soon We're waiting until more polling is released to confirm our advice here."
e.g I looked up the post code for a post office in Suella Bravermans constituency - PO16 0AG
stopthetories.vote/parl/fareham-and-waterlooville
Well done to them for building the site, they are probably making FPTP easier for many, but at some point they are going to have to put the big boy pants on and choose a pollster to track.
Maybe in the future we might see online local hustings and surveys to get behind a specific candidate.
I've tried numerous postcodes for constituencies around me and all working fine - only Fareham doesn't, as you say. Perhaps because it genuinely doesn't know? EC has Lab in 2nd place, UKPR1v2 has LD... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 9:51:15 GMT
Looking beyond the almost certain Labour landslide and putting on my negative hat I find the polls showing TWENTY SEVEN percent of respondents think Farage would make a great or fairly good Prime Minister, plus roughly 35% saying they will still vote either Con or Tory very worrying.
If they coalesce into one party and attract a few more voters then we know that under FPTP they could easily be in power - and, like most here I th8nk, I never want to see a right wing government again.
Paul
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 19, 2024 9:59:50 GMT
Yet more Reform UK candidates expressing unacceptable views. If Labour have problems with the odd candidate expressing such views, soon we may find it easier to identify any Reform UK candidates not expressing them. Reform UK says its general election candidates are free to express views that "are not shared by all their party colleagues" as they are not "political zombies".
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,574
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 19, 2024 10:00:42 GMT
I posted a while back that due to the notoriously even split of the anti-Tory vote in Chelmsford the Conservatives could easily win it with 33% of the vote. I notice that the Survation MRP has the suggested results as: Con 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%, which makes the point.
Incidentally the RefUK candidate in Chelmsford is one of those who escaped their 'rigorous' vetting - apparently he has suggested that Rishi Sunak should be decapitated and his head displayed on a spike outside the Tower of London. Nice people these RefUKers.
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 19, 2024 10:06:04 GMT
Dodger
Welcome!
"Maybe in the future we might see online local hustings and surveys to get behind a specific candidate."
We already have in South Devon, where the so-called "South Devon Primaries" _ organised by George Monbiot and others, - gathered greens, lib dems and labour to decide which candidate to back, and chose Caroline Voaden, a former MEP and Lib Dem. Now the town's windows are full of posters saying "I am Labour/ Green but I'm lending my vote to CAROLINE VOADEN." Interestingly, and i only just learned this, she was instructed by the party hierarchy not to take part in the scheme, but she disobeyed orders, and now is pretty much a cert to be our next MP. The Tory boy, Anthony Mangnal, appears to have given up
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2024 10:06:15 GMT
Survation NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @gmb Poll 2/4: CON 20% (-3) LAB 41% (-) LD 12% (+2) REF 15% (+3) GRE 6% (-) SNP 2% (-1) OTH 5% (+1) F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024 Sticking this into EC as well as the usual stonking Labour majority and the Lib Dems getting 62 seats to the Tories 58, they also have 3 RefUK (Ashfield, Boston & Skegness and Clacton) and 5 Labour losses - Sheffield Hallam to the Lib Dems, Bristol Central to the Greens, Islington North to Jeremy Corbyn, Birmingham Ladywood to the Independent Muslim candidate and Rochdale to Galloway. Whatever happens with those others I am unconvinced by the last one. The Muslim population of Rochdale is c30%. Even if all of them voted for Galloway - which they won't - I doubt the old fraud is going to get much support among the rest of the population. I can see a ganging up 'get rid of Galloway' vote heading Labour's way there. After all, when Galloway won the by-election Labour didn't even have a candidate. Re - Sheffield Hallam that EC projection makes no sense! Labour is up 9% in GB terms since 2019 with the LDs unchanged. That implies an increased Labour majority there. |
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Post by James E on Jun 19, 2024 10:08:17 GMT
Re Fareham & Waterlooville.
The notional 2019 result is Con 61%, LD 18.3%, Lab 16.5%.
For most seats, the simple approach to tactical voting is to support whoever was in 2nd place last time, but some allowance needs to be made for polling movements since then, as Labour are up by 9 points, and there has been significant movement between LDs and Lab - cross-breaks show around 25% of 2019 LDs switching to Lab.
Here, the 1997 precedent looks significant to me: the LDs outperformed their general polling position (down 1%) where they appeared to be in fairly close contention, but did not do so where they were in a distant second:
"Conservative held seats from 1992, LDs in second place:
Marginal (15 seats) :Con -9.7%, Lab + 3.3%, LDs + 2.6%
Possible (30 seats) : Con -12.1%, Lab +6.8%, LDs + 2.4%
Safe (98 seats) : Con -12.6%, Lab + 8.8%, LDs -0.4%."
Not how similar the pattern in those 'safe seats' was to the overall movements at the 1997 election ( Con -11.5%, Lab + 9.5%, LDs - 1.0%)
A "safe" seat here was one where the Tories had a majority of 20%+ from the previous election. But these figures do not distinguish between those with large and small gaps between LDs in 2nd and Lab in 3rd. My own analysis of 1997 suggest that Lab will do better where they were a close 3rd to the LDs than where they were distant. In fact, I have not been able to find a singe seat in 1997 where Labour failed to overtake the LDs with less than a 14-point deficit from 3rd to 2nd.
This time, as a simple rule, I would suggest that in 'Con held, LD 2nd, Lab3rd' seats, where Labour is less than 10 points behind the LDs they will probably at least overtake them. This is consistent with current polling movements, and the pattern of how such seats moved back in '97.
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2024 10:15:46 GMT
Re Fareham & Waterlooville. The notional 2019 result is Con 61%, LD 18.3%, Lab 16.5%. For most seats, the simple approach to tactical voting is to support whoever was in 2nd place last time, but some allowance needs to be made for polling movements since then, as Labour are up by 9 points, and there has been significant movement between LDs and Lab - cross-breaks show around 25% of 2019 LDs switching to Lab. Here, the 1997 precedent looks significant to me: the LDs outperformed their general polling position (down 1%) where they appeared to be in fairly close contention, but did not do so where they were in a distant second: "Conservative held seats from 1992, LDs in second place: Marginal (15 seats) :Con -9.7%, Lab + 3.3%, LDs + 2.6% Possible (30 seats) : Con -12.1%, Lab +6.8%, LDs + 2.4% Safe (98 seats) : Con -12.6%, Lab + 8.8%, LDs -0.4%." Not how similar the pattern in those 'safe seats' was to the overall movements at the 1997 election ( Con -11.5%, Lab + 9.5%, LDs - 1.0%) A "safe" seat here was one where the Tories had a majority of 20%+ from the previous election. But these figures do not distinguish between those with large and small gaps between LDs in 2nd and Lab in 3rd. My own analysis of 1997 suggest that Lab will do better where they were a close 3rd to the LDs than where they were distant. In fact, I have not been able to find a singe seat in 1997 where Labour failed to overtake the LDs with less than a 14-point deficit from 3rd to 2nd. This time, as a simple rule, I would suggest that in 'Con held, LD 2nd, Lab3rd' seats, where Labour is less than 10 points behind the LDs they will probably at least overtake them. This is consistent with current polling movements, and the pattern of how such seats moved back in '97. That does not work for Wimbledon based on las t night's MRP which came up with - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24 - very much a tossup now. |
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