15 Jun 2024 : LAB: 43% / CON: 19% / REF: 16% / LDEM: 11%

[pjw1961]

Jun 19, 2024 10:06:15 GMT graham said:

Jun 19, 2024 8:47:19 GMT pjw1961 said:

Sticking this into EC as well as the usual stonking Labour majority and the Lib Dems getting 62 seats to the Tories 58, they also have 3 RefUK (Ashfield, Boston & Skegness and Clacton) and 5 Labour losses - Sheffield Hallam to the Lib Dems, Bristol Central to the Greens, Islington North to Jeremy Corbyn, Birmingham Ladywood to the Independent Muslim candidate and Rochdale to Galloway.

Whatever happens with those others I am unconvinced by the last one. The Muslim population of Rochdale is c30%. Even if all of them voted for Galloway - which they won't - I doubt the old fraud is going to get much support among the rest of the population. I can see a ganging up 'get rid of Galloway' vote heading Labour's way there. After all, when Galloway won the by-election Labour didn't even have a candidate.  

Re - Sheffield Hallam  that EC projection makes no sense! Labour is up 9% in GB terms since 2019 with the LDs unchanged. That implies an increased Labour majority there.

The underlying MRP is presumably suggesting that the liberal middle class people of Hallam don't like Labour's shift to the right since 2019.

[graham]

Jun 19, 2024 10:20:28 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 19, 2024 10:06:15 GMT graham said:

Re - Sheffield Hallam  that EC projection makes no sense! Labour is up 9% in GB terms since 2019 with the LDs unchanged. That implies an increased Labour majority there.

The underlying MRP is presumably suggesting that the liberal middle class people of Hallam don't like Labour's shift to the right since 2019.

Well the Ipsos Mori MRP came up with  Lab 45 LD 27 Con 16 in Hallam

[steve]

Diverse young audience for Farage's appearance in Clacton

[James E]

graham

"That does not work for Wimbledon based on last night's MRP which came up with - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24 - very much a tossup now."

Wimbledon is nowhere near being a 'safe' seat, and is somewhat of an exceptional case. The Tories have almost no chance of holding it, even if the LDs and Lab take an even share of the vote as per Ipsos's MRP.

But there are plenty of seats which can be used to test my advice above: as well as Fareham, there are Chelmsford, Salisbury, Runneymede & Weybridge, Reigate, Cotswolds North, St Neots & Mid-Cambs, and many others with a gap of less than 10 points between a 2nd place LD and 3rd place Lab from 2019 (or notional results).It will be interesting to see in 17 days' time how well this holds up.

As a wider point: there are wildly varying MRP results by constituency for the kind of seats we are discussing, where the tactical position between LDs and Lab is in some doubt. I think that the figures I have shown above are relevant here - the LDs did outperform their general showing in 1997 where they were in second place, but this was concentrated into those seats where they were a relatively close second. This is also borne out by EC/FON's findings from earlier this year on the LDs' performance in their strong, medium and weak seats.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lib2seats_20240226.html

[graham]

The Brecon,Radnor & Cwm Tawe seat looks interesting on the latest MRP figures - Con 27 Lab 24 LD 23. Many Labour voters in the former Brecon & Radnor seat have got into the habit of voting LD on a tactical basis since 1997 - despite Labour having come close to winning there at the 1985 by election. The boundary changes have transferred strong Labour wards from the former Neath seat so making Labour competitive again - particularly if the tactical voting now unwinds.Doubtless the MRP data will now be used to try to squeeze the LD tactical vote.

[athena]

Jun 19, 2024 8:21:52 GMT John Chanin said:

Where was this debate [the Climate and Nature Debate]?  I'd be interested in listening if it is/was on some medium that I have access to.

It was organised by Wildlife and Countryside Link (umbrella organisation for a bunch of wildlife and conservation organisations), held in Chester and broadcast on Youtube the following day. I think it's still available via this link. If you do listen I'd be interested in your impressions.

It's a shame the organisers didn't manage to secure more publicity for it - whilst I regard the data about the percentage of voters who say they are concerned about issue X or that their vote will be influenced by issue X as next-door to meaningless I do think there was a much larger potential audience for this kind of debate than will ever see or hear the one that took place on Monday.

[norbold]

Jun 19, 2024 10:00:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

I posted a while back that due to the notoriously even split of the anti-Tory vote in Chelmsford the Conservatives could easily win it with 33% of the vote. I notice that the Survation MRP has the suggested results as: Con 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%, which makes the point.

Incidentally the RefUK candidate in Chelmsford is one of those who escaped their 'rigorous' vetting - apparently he has suggested that Rishi Sunak should be decapitated and his head displayed on a spike outside the Tower of London. Nice people these RefUKers.

The latest Survation MRP is making Clacton a three way marginal as well. RFUK Ltd: 30.7%; Con: 29.4%; Lab: 27.6%. The sad thing, from my point of view(!), is that if you add the LD and Green vote to Labour you would get Vaguely Left (ish): 35.8%, a fairly good lead at this point and enough to beat Farage.

[steve]

For several months I've made it clear that I thought the lib dems would achieve 40+ seats at a general election, to be criticised by the usually suspect , at the start of the election campaign I said there was an outside chance of considerably more seats and the possibility of crossover in terms of parliamentary representation with the tories, again this was attacked as wishful thinking.

In the first four weeks of the campaign the Tory vote intention has fallen, the introduction of the latest Faragist ego trip for the xenophobic hard of thinking has further eroded their vote and Ed Davey's positive campaigning style has seen an improving picture in relation to vote share.

All of which make the previously unthinkable possible, if polling progresses the same way over the next two weeks it might move into the probable category.

We've seen vast majorities under fptp before, admittedly not as vast as this one is likely to be.
But we haven't seen a change in the make up of the Westminster parliament in any substantial way comparable to the result of a lib dem second place since the emergence of the Labour , 100 years ago.


Irrespective of individuals views on the lib dems this would be a fundamental change , where both the government and the main opposition party are both social democrat parties.

It might with a great deal of luck see a return to the sense of the post war consensus.

[graham]

Jun 19, 2024 10:49:26 GMT norbold said:

Jun 19, 2024 10:00:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

I posted a while back that due to the notoriously even split of the anti-Tory vote in Chelmsford the Conservatives could easily win it with 33% of the vote. I notice that the Survation MRP has the suggested results as: Con 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%, which makes the point.

Incidentally the RefUK candidate in Chelmsford is one of those who escaped their 'rigorous' vetting - apparently he has suggested that Rishi Sunak should be decapitated and his head displayed on a spike outside the Tower of London. Nice people these RefUKers.

The latest Survation MRP is making Clacton a three way marginal as well. RFUK Ltd: 30.7%; Con: 29.4%; Lab: 27.6%. The sad thing, from my point of view(!), is that if you add the LD and Green vote to Labour you would get Vaguely Left (ish): 35.8%, a fairly good lead at this point and enough to beat Farage.

The latest MRP from Ipsos Mori shows the Tory vote collapsing to Reform in Clacton  - Con 16 Lab 24 LD 2 Grn 3 Ref 52.

[steve]

Also and I'm trying to be objective to this it's been a long time since the government was centrist and the main opposition party was centrist as well but more progressive .

It should make for interesting dynamics.

[pjw1961]

Jun 19, 2024 10:26:00 GMT graham said:

Jun 19, 2024 10:20:28 GMT pjw1961 said:

The underlying MRP is presumably suggesting that the liberal middle class people of Hallam don't like Labour's shift to the right since 2019.

Well the Ipsos Mori MRP came up with  Lab 45 LD 27 Con 16 in Hallam

I don't disagree (one of the things about the MRPs is they are all over the place on individual seat predictions outside of the obvious ones; they can't all be right!).

The long term history of General Elections is that because the government of the country is at stake Independents and 'Others' tend to get squeezed. The fact that people can reel off the exceptions is itself evidence of how rare it is for for 'fourth' parties to win in England. Of the 8 seats I quoted earlier Farage and Corbyn's name recognition may get them over the line, but I still have doubts about all the others. 

[alec]

Not sure this is such a great idea - www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/19/labour-pledges-to-strengthen-economic-watchdog-within-first-100-days

It's being done to further nail the idea of Labour as fiscally responsible, so I understand the politics of this, but as robbiealive has pointed out (on the other thread, I think) the fact that Labour are doing this shows clearly that they remain within the overall mindset of the Thatcherite 'sound money' concept. Shackling the population's ambitions to the dictates of the economically conservative OBR might not be the best course for the country, although obviously after the Truss debacle, it's clear that there needs to be a balance between political ambition and market sentiments.

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2024 10:52:14 GMT steve said:

For several months I've made it clear that I thought the lib dems would achieve 40+ seats at a general election, to be criticised by the usually suspect

He's definitely usually suspect.

[mark61]

Jun 19, 2024 10:59:05 GMT steve said:

Also and I'm trying to be objective to this it's been a long time since the government was centrist and the main opposition party was centrist as well but more progressive .

It should make for interesting dynamics.

It does appear that this is now possibility if perhaps still an outside chance,  I for one would not find it an unwelcome development, it would certainly shift the Overton window and restore a certain amount of civility to Politics.

Surely though you must be open to the fact Labour may be more radical in Govt than as an Opposition carrying the much mentioned Ming vase to the finish line.

This is where I think we diverge as I think Labour have more scope to move Left than the Lib Dems, my experience of Lib Dems locally is that they are not as  progressive as you represent but that maybe simply an issue that we live in different parts of the Country, so whilst I don't doubt they are currently a centrist party I would be surprised if they would be Opposing Labour from the left

[jib]

I'm not even here, and he's still obsessed.

"Usually suspect" - and quite rightly so of the said character(s), as my posts often allude to.

[pjw1961]

Jun 19, 2024 10:54:44 GMT graham said:

Jun 19, 2024 10:49:26 GMT norbold said:

The latest Survation MRP is making Clacton a three way marginal as well. RFUK Ltd: 30.7%; Con: 29.4%; Lab: 27.6%. The sad thing, from my point of view(!), is that if you add the LD and Green vote to Labour you would get Vaguely Left (ish): 35.8%, a fairly good lead at this point and enough to beat Farage.

The latest MRP from Ipsos Mori shows the Tory vote collapsing to Reform in Clacton  - Con 16 Lab 24 LD 2 Grn 3 Ref 52.

I saw that, but seems a very fast movement. Bit dubious to my mind.

[jayblanc]

Doing a dive on the data from the latest YouGov MRP, I think there's some misleading false precision that causes prediction to stop short of outright collapse of the Conservatives. Well over a hundred seats are identified in their model as being too close to call, with some very large overlapping areas of error. It gives 62 of these to the Conservatives, 50 to Labour. If momentum carries against the Conservatives there could be a lot more seats to fall than MRP projects.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 19, 2024 10:52:14 GMT steve said:

at the start of the election campaign I said there was an outside chance of considerably more seats and the possibility of crossover in terms of parliamentary representation with the tories

Davey has gone for the “water sports vote”, a hitherto untapped electoral resource, that has gone under the radar of many pollsters and electoral gurus until now. It’s possible that this will have changed campaigning forever, and we may see more politicians in future donning lifejackets in marginals

(Although he has done it in a variety of contexts - paddle boards, canoes, water slides etc. - thus leaving little room for rivals to get in on it…)

[shevii]

Jun 19, 2024 10:52:14 GMT steve said:

In the first four weeks of the campaign the Tory vote intention has fallen, the introduction of the latest Faragist ego trip for the xenophobic hard of thinking has further eroded their vote and Ed Davey's positive campaigning style has seen an improving picture in relation to vote share.

All of which make the previously unthinkable possible, if polling progresses the same way over the next two weeks it might move into the probable category.

I think this is very true and also why Greens have a chance now in Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire (but still only a chance) and other seats are opening up to both Lab and LD that seemed unthinkable.  Tories on 20% or 25% will be the difference between wipe out and just very bad.

Mostly everyone assumed there would be a bit of Tory swingback come the election but a lot of these seats the "impossible" is now on very fine margins for Lab, LD and Green.  The one thing that is very clear is that Labour is going to get their landslide.  Not sure Ed Davey has made much of an impact though- it will mainly be due to two horse race leaflets being delivered on a regular basis and number of window bills.

[athena]

Jun 19, 2024 10:20:28 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 19, 2024 10:06:15 GMT graham said:

Re - Sheffield Hallam  that EC projection makes no sense! Labour is up 9% in GB terms since 2019 with the LDs unchanged. That implies an increased Labour majority there.

The underlying MRP is presumably suggesting that the liberal middle class people of Hallam don't like Labour's shift to the right since 2019.

FWLIW I'm in Shef Hallam and I've been assuming that Lab will retain the seat:

• The Lab MP has had five years to build up a record of constituency service
• That's also five years for people to forget that Lab previously inflicted Jared O'Mara on us
• The Lab candidate's role in the Street Trees scandal will be less of a factor this time (she did her best to distance herself from it at the last election and may have succeeded, although it really doesn't take much to work out that she bears considerable responsibility, GRRR .
• The LDs had to change candidate a few months ago, because the woman who fought the seat in 2019 and had maintained a presence withdrew due to health problems
• The new LD candidate is a councillor who's done a series of chicken runs across the city in order to retain his council seat, not always successfully (he stood in my ward some years ago, thinking it a safer bet than wherever he'd been before and still got booted). The LDs obviously rate him - or perhaps he just donates lots of money to the party - but he doesn't seem to have much voter appeal
• The new LD candidate is Muslim, which might help him pick up a few votes over Gaza, but Shef Hallam doesn't have a huge Muslim population and has far fewer students than Shef Central.

As far as I know, the minor boundary changes haven't changed the electoral make-up of the seat much (notional 2019 result on new boundaries looks much like the actual result). As for the campaign, it's been strangely low key so far.

I think the YouGov MRP showed Lab retaining the seat.

[mercian]

Jun 19, 2024 4:50:57 GMT steve said:

mercian

Irrespective of your intent or otherwise to vote Green, the list of policies you listed aren't remotely " communist "

Ok, I may have used the term loosely. I'm not too well up on the shades of difference between the multifarious factions of the left so I use 'communist' as a catch-all for extreme left.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 19, 2024 11:16:15 GMT alec said:

Not sure this is such a great idea - www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/19/labour-pledges-to-strengthen-economic-watchdog-within-first-100-days

It's being done to further nail the idea of Labour as fiscally responsible, so I understand the politics of this, but as robbiealive has pointed out (on the other thread, I think) the fact that Labour are doing this shows clearly that they remain within the overall mindset of the Thatcherite 'sound money' concept. Shackling the population's ambitions to the dictates of the economically conservative OBR might not be the best course for the country, although obviously after the Truss debacle, it's clear that there needs to be a balance between political ambition and market sentiments.

I do share your concern, though it has me wondering as to other possibilities. It is quite normal these days, to try and shackle future governments, and it’s possible that labour are trying to forestall a Tory gambit of continuing down the road of tax cuts, thus leaving future Labour governments with even less opportunity to invest. 

Beforehand, the way Tories did it was by making cuts to the size of the state, and racking up debt, but since they have maxed out those credit cards, they are now going down the tax cut Road. It’s hard for Labour to fight this if it means putting taxes up again. Regulatory oversight of the economic implications of tax cuts, may make it a bit harder for the Tories (or any successors) to do it in future. 

There is potentially another angle, in that Labour may be more willing than those further right, to use more QE “money-printing” instead, to invest in counterinflationary things like energy, so they don’t have to worry so much about the inflationary possibilities. So they might be quite happy to adopt quite tight conventional constraints, knowing that they have the other avenue. Of course, this is all speculation, it just had me wondering as to what might be going under the radar…

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2024 12:12:16 GMT mercian said:

Jun 19, 2024 4:50:57 GMT steve said:

mercian

Irrespective of your intent or otherwise to vote Green, the list of policies you listed aren't remotely " communist "

Ok, I may have used the term loosely. I'm not too well up on the shades of difference between the multifarious factions of the left so I use 'communist' as a catch-all for extreme left.

Know what you mean…………. I tend to use “bastards” for those on the multifarious factions of the right.

[mercian]

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:15 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Looking beyond the almost certain Labour landslide and putting on my negative hat I find the polls showing TWENTY SEVEN percent of respondents think Farage would make a great or fairly good Prime Minister, plus roughly 35% saying they will still vote either Con or Tory very worrying.

If they coalesce into one party and attract a few more voters then we know that under FPTP they could easily be in power - and, like most here I th8nk, I never want to see a right wing government again.

Paul

I suppose it all depends where you're looking from. I don't think we've had a right-wing government for over 30 years.

[bardin1]

Jun 19, 2024 12:24:27 GMT mercian said:

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:15 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

I suppose it all depends where you're looking from. I don't think we've had a right-wing government for over 30 years.

Where would you place that well known 'lefty' Liz Truss on the political spectrum, as a matter of interest?

[moby]

Jun 19, 2024 10:59:05 GMT steve said:

Also and I'm trying to be objective to this it's been a long time since the government was centrist and the main opposition party was centrist as well but more progressive .

It should make for interesting dynamics.

That's good but as part of the new dynamic the forces on the right will also coalesce. The EU is already experiencing right wing populism on a level we haven't experienced yet. If Labour struggles in Govmt and real growth etc is not forthcoming, imo it will not be another centrist progressive party that benefits but a resurgent reform/right wing tory opposition.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 19, 2024 12:24:27 GMT mercian said:

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:15 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Looking beyond the almost certain Labour landslide and putting on my negative hat I find the polls showing TWENTY SEVEN percent of respondents think Farage would make a great or fairly good Prime Minister, plus roughly 35% saying they will still vote either Con or Tory very worrying.

If they coalesce into one party and attract a few more voters then we know that under FPTP they could easily be in power - and, like most here I th8nk, I never want to see a right wing government again.

Paul

I suppose it all depends where you're looking from. I don't think we've had a right-wing government for over 30 years.

Whereas some might say we have had right-wing governments for rather longer. We have had ladder-pulling ever since Thatcher. Ramping up house prices, energy prices, abandoning full employment et cetera. We have had the switch to pro-capital since joining the common market. Even where we had more investment in public services, it tended to involve handing more money to the private sector, with the associated profiteering, rather than building state-owned assets etc.

Although, in some respects one can argue for an increasing shift leftwards lately, e.g. furlough, and using energy subsidies to control inflation, rather than driving down wages instead. It’s not necessarily outright left-wing, but a move leftwards all the same. 

In the Sixties, with the social democrats taking over Labour, we had not only the social liberal reforms of course, but a shift right-wards economically, converting our energy to a more globalist approach - with the associated vulnerabilities, we saw in the energy crisis - and the more pro-capital approach of seeing wages - particularly working-class wages - as the enemy. When in fact, the problem was government policy

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 18, 2024 22:30:56 GMT mercian said:

Jun 18, 2024 21:22:41 GMT athena said:

I'm not sure what the Green Party is for if its spokespeople aren't capable of making the case for Green policies and on the basis of what I've read and heard in this election campaign, they aren't.

As far as I can make out they are basically communists using green issues as cover.

How much it’s communists taking over, I don’t know, but on the broader point, yes, you do have different factions taking over parties who aren’t necessarily committed to the original fundamental goal of that party. You get neoliberal radicals taking over the Conservatives, somewhat radical euroliberals taking over labour and the Conservatives, even one nation conservatism may get taken over and flipped to mean the opposite of what it meant originally. You can have people preoccupied with identity politics taking over organisations, and what is nowadays taken to be the labour left, may be less concerned with the working-class concerns*, and more concerned with injustices elsewhere in the world. Not that I am saying these concerns don’t matter, or that they shouldn’t necessarily take precedence, I’m just saying that there is competition for control of parties and other institutions from people preoccupied with different things, and epic amounts of gaslighting alongside 

* something which McSweeney may be addressing

[steve]

"I'm not even here"

That's true☺

mark61
"This is where I think we diverge as I think Labour have more scope to move Left than the Lib"

Actually we don't disagree I just think from the utterings of the Labour leadership they don't want to use it.

I can't speak for other areas of the country but my own experience of lib dems since I joined in 2017 was that they wouldn't be out of place in the cooperative wing of the Labour party, which given that's where I came from is probably why I don't feel out of place.

Faith and I had both previously been active Labour party members, Faith had been a senior trade union representative, albeit for the non politically affiliated RCN for two decades, our daughter is still an active Labour party member.I suppose it's possible that our associates within the liberal democrats are more inclined to allow their social democrat side to show with us.
Who knows.

[graham]

Jun 19, 2024 12:24:27 GMT mercian said:

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:15 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Looking beyond the almost certain Labour landslide and putting on my negative hat I find the polls showing TWENTY SEVEN percent of respondents think Farage would make a great or fairly good Prime Minister, plus roughly 35% saying they will still vote either Con or Tory very worrying.

If they coalesce into one party and attract a few more voters then we know that under FPTP they could easily be in power - and, like most here I th8nk, I never want to see a right wing government again.

Paul

I suppose it all depends where you're looking from. I don't think we've had a right-wing government for over 30 years.

We have had a right-wing government since  May 1979 - other than a two year interval 2008 - 2010 during the GFC when Keynesian  policies made a comeback.