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Post by athena on Jun 18, 2024 21:22:41 GMT
Tonight I listened to the Climate and Nature Debate. It's been years since I listened to any kind of political debate - at some point I just fell out of love with formats that mainly reward rhetorical skill - so I'd forgotten what they're like. This one was more of a hustings as there was very little interaction between the panel members, so there wasn't much political point-scoring. There were representatives from Con (under-secretary in Defra), Lab (Shadow Defra Minister), LD (leader in Lords, manifesto author) and Green (co-leader). As debaters/panellists the Con and Green reps did best, although the Con woman was handicapped by her material (there's only so much you can say when your government has made little or no progress towards the targets it set itself) and the LD guy was weakest - his manner was a bit slow and vague (possibly age-related slowness, he was easily the oldest of the bunch).
Just for fun (and to make sure I listened properly) I ranked them for their responses to all the questions to create a rough index of performance. In a generally unimpressive field (if it had been a competition I wouldn't have awarded a gold medal) the LD emerged ahead of the others - of the four, he was the one I would want in a climate or nature role in the next government.
The Con gave the most impressive opening statement: it was a good summary of what the government has done and she managed to present it as a sound, well-designed foundation for future work. The Lab guy was very weak, clearly reading a speech someone else had written for him, and didn't sound as if he believed or cared about any of it. On the questions, I'd expected stronger responses from the Green, particularly to the question about how to join up all the various strands of climate and environment policy and create a coherent framework for action. The Lab guy came to life when he had a chance to talk about Lab's GB Energy plans - it was transparently obvious that energy policy is the ONLY aspect of climate and environment on which Lab has done any serious thinking! The LD guy managed to mention more half-decent policy ideas than the others, but he didn't convince me that he understood why they were important - possibly because he wasn't very sharp - and I wouldn't back him to win a fight with the Treasury (I'd take the Con woman for that I think).
What was really disappointing though, was that after the political panel they had a panel consisting of representatives of key stakeholder organisations, who answered questions about the quality of the politicians' responses to the earlier questions, and they were ALL much more impressive than any of the politicians: much greater command of relevant evidence and policies, comfortable - eager - to talk about the bigger picture, the magnitude of the challenges and useful first steps etc. etc. I gave the RSPB woman a silent round of applause when she talked about the need to stop thinking about everything in terms of GDP and about the challenge of comparing nature-based solutions to engineered flood defences - a fairly simple point that not even the Green Party co-leader had been capable of making. I'm not sure what the Green Party is for if its spokespeople aren't capable of making the case for Green policies and on the basis of what I've read and heard in this election campaign, they aren't.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 18, 2024 21:30:30 GMT
Because it is the victors who write it, our history says that we invited the Dutch, in the form of William of Orange and his wife Mary, over to rule us. That they arrived with a fleet and an army, rather than taking a ferry to Dover, shows that is being economical with the truth. The Glorious Revolution was just as much an invasion as William the Conqueror's. He was invited by Parliament. An army was necessary because James II resisted at first, though the only significant fighting took place in Ireland. Even if we grant that exception, it's still a lot different to most continental countries who have been invaded many times. But..but..but |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jun 18, 2024 21:34:29 GMT
See, this is what I’m talking about. 🥳 Thanks kind sir. 👍 Turns out Graham posted it before and I somehow missed it… Don’t worry Carfrew. Some things such as that poll or an episode of Dads Army leave me with a nice, warm, fuzzy glow even if they are a repeat. Post it again tomorrow and I’ll be just as happy. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 21:44:44 GMT
For those who are interested in tactical voting here's a site with a proven track record in both general and local elections. Again this is not aligned to any particular party. stopthetories.vote |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 21:53:57 GMT
I looked at my own constituency. They give percentages for 5 candidates. I appreciate they can't list them all, but there are actually 9 according to the BBC, including independents and a Worker's Party who is supposed to be the recommended candidate for the Muslim community. If that recommendation turns out to be true and most Muslims follow the recommendation it could be an upset because the Muslim population is much larger than the Labour majority. |
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Post by mark61 on Jun 18, 2024 21:58:21 GMT
Just delved into the RefUk 'Contract with the people offering' in particular the section on Criminal justice where I have some experience. It declares 'Those committing second Violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences' So at age 19 you get into a row at college and push someone over causing no significant Injury and are charged and convicted of common assault which by current sentencing guidelines for a first offence you may get a fine or a conditional discharge, worst case Scenario with a tough bench, a modicum of unpaid work.
10 years later you are in a Pub and some drunk is grossly offensive to your Partner and you give him a slap again causing no significant injury, again on todays guidelines a similar Sentence as before, With the RefUk contract with the people you can look forward to Life Imprisonment! Don't worry because about 5 million other Britons will be in Chokey with you!
This document should be written in crayons, read it, it's laughable, Prepared by Millionaire bad faith actors, Punching down, trying to convince the hard of thinking that they are on their side. As a Labour supporter I have up to now enjoyed the fact that they have split the right vote, but seeing the full ugliness of their offering i'm not so sure. For those who are on the right and committed to that point of view I'm tempted to say please stick with the Conservatives, rather than this disreputable bunch of Charlatans.
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 22:11:23 GMT
He was invited by Parliament. An army was necessary because James II resisted at first, though the only significant fighting took place in Ireland. Even if we grant that exception, it's still a lot different to most continental countries who have been invaded many times. puts it slightly differently. The prospect of a Catholic dynasty destroyed James's political authority, and led a few of his domestic opponents to seek external support in removing him.
Although there was little sign of armed English domestic resistance, both William and the Dutch States General were concerned James would support Louis XIV of France in the Nine Years' War. Claiming to be responding to an Invitation asking him to "protect the Protestant religion", William landed in Devon with 20,000 men on 5 November 1688.It was all about the risk of James II supporting Louis XIV against the Dutch, so William invaded Britain to prevent it. Read the highlighted bit in my previous post quoted above. I can't even remember who I was replying to and what I was trying to prove now!  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 22:13:14 GMT
I looked at my own constituency. They give percentages for 5 candidates. I appreciate they can't list them all, but there are actually 9 according to the BBC, including independents and a Worker's Party who is supposed to be the recommended candidate for the Muslim community. If that recommendation turns out to be true and most Muslims follow the recommendation it could be an upset because the Muslim population is much larger than the Labour majority. Muslim voters are not a monolithic block and many of them worry far more about the same day to day issues as the rest of us - cost of living, NHS, schools, wages, etc. - than they do about Gaza, and will choose how they vote based on that. Not saying Labour isn't going to take a hit, but you keep overstating this. And of course if the Labour majority you reference is over the Conservatives, you have to recognise that their vote is also going to fall. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 22:19:48 GMT
Yeah, sounds harsh but in far too many cases the effect of being deeply convinced of the existence of a “god”, plus the numerous holy laws that follow such a belief, is either the believers’ or their opponents’ death. Or both. It has it's uses though. I well remember the second verse of 'All things bright and beautiful' which like the second (or 3rd) verse of the National Anthem has now been banned in this absurd politically-correct world. "The rich man in his castle, The poor man at the gate, God made them high and lowly, Each to his own estate. All things etc..." Great for keeping the peasants in their place! |
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Post by norbold on Jun 18, 2024 22:27:56 GMT
I hope we see very little of him after July 4th. I'm sure we won't see much of him at Westminster if he gets elected. Or Clacton for that matter.Well that's one small crumb of comfort anyway. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 22:30:56 GMT
I'm not sure what the Green Party is for if its spokespeople aren't capable of making the case for Green policies and on the basis of what I've read and heard in this election campaign, they aren't. As far as I can make out they are basically communists using green issues as cover. I'm sure that they have many good people in the membership but I'm very suspicious of the motives of the leadership. I'd have been quite likely to vote Green myself (and have done in the past) but am put off by policies such as: Bringing the railways, water companies and the Big 5 retail energy companies into public ownership. Reform of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to align the rates paid by taxpayers on income and taxable gains. This would affect less than 2% of all income taxpayers. Aligning the tax rates on investment income with the tax and National Insurance Contribution rates on employment income. Removing the Upper Earnings Limit that restricts the amount of National Insurance paid by high earners. Equal employment rights for all workers from their first day of employment, including those working in the ‘gig economy’ and on zero-hours contracts. Gig employers that repeatedly break employment, data protection or tax law will be denied licences to operate. A move to a four-day working week. Repeal of current anti-union legislation and its replacement with a positive Charter of Workers’ Rights, with the right to strike at its heart along with a legal obligation for all employers to recognise trade unions. A maximum 10:1 pay ratio for all private- and public-sector organisations. An increase in the minimum wage to £15 an hour, no matter your age, with the costs to small businesses offset by reducing their National Insurance payments. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 22:46:44 GMT
I looked at my own constituency. They give percentages for 5 candidates. I appreciate they can't list them all, but there are actually 9 according to the BBC, including independents and a Worker's Party who is supposed to be the recommended candidate for the Muslim community. If that recommendation turns out to be true and most Muslims follow the recommendation it could be an upset because the Muslim population is much larger than the Labour majority. Muslim voters are not a monolithic block and many of them worry far more about the same day to day issues as the rest of us - cost of living, NHS, schools, wages, etc. - than they do about Gaza, and will choose how they vote based on that. Not saying Labour isn't going to take a hit, but you keep overstating this. And of course if the Labour majority you reference is over the Conservatives, you have to recognise that their vote is also going to fall. Read the bit In my post which I've highlighted for you. There is an 'if' in there. I'm not assuming anything, just that it's a possibility. There have been demonstrations in London in particular about Gaza for months, though I haven't heard about one for the last couple of weeks. Possibly Starmer has taken the heat out of it by the Labour manifesto saying that they will recognise Palestine as a state. EDIT: Midnight. Pumpkin time. I will answer any reply you make on the morrow. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 18, 2024 23:21:20 GMT
What about Think 'I don't give a shit' The mistake is more likely to arise when there are two or more objects. Remove one of the objects and it becomes much more obvious. So, Plenty of people wud say The dog bit William and I. Far fewer wud say The dog bit I. . The same sort of reduction often works with with the possessive/plural atrocity. Plenty would write I had two days (days') holiday. Few would write I had one day holiday. PS. Someone posted an interesting argument that fundamental reform of the economy would be more likely to occur in a period of constrained rather than abundant economic growth. Can anyone point me to the post. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 18, 2024 23:29:12 GMT
Just delved into the RefUk 'Contract with the people offering' in particular the section on Criminal justice where I have some experience. It declares 'Those committing second Violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences' So at age 19 you get into a row at college and push someone over causing no significant Injury and are charged and convicted of common assault which by current sentencing guidelines for a first offence you may get a fine or a conditional discharge, worst case Scenario with a tough bench, a modicum of unpaid work. 10 years later you are in a Pub and some drunk is grossly offensive to your Partner and you give him a slap again causing no significant injury, again on todays guidelines a similar Sentence as before, With the RefUk contract with the people you can look forward to Life Imprisonment! Don't worry because about 5 million other Britons will be in Chokey with you! This document should be written in crayons, read it, it's laughable, Prepared by Millionaire bad faith actors, Punching down, trying to convince the hard of thinking that they are on their side. As a Labour supporter I have up to now enjoyed the fact that they have split the right vote, but seeing the full ugliness of their offering i'm not so sure. For those who are on the right and committed to that point of view I'm tempted to say please stick with the Conservatives, rather than this disreputable bunch of Charlatans. |
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Post by jen on Jun 19, 2024 0:20:34 GMT
If Adolf Hitler were here today, they'd send a limousine anyway... Joe Strummer, "White Man In Hammersmith Palais", The Clash, 1978. actually it's All over, people changing votes Along with their overcoats If Adolf Hitler flew in today They'd send a limousine anyway Nevertheless, I am sure you are aware, live performances often result in lyric variations (I am, myself, particularly guilty of this.). I am quoting a live performance at the Lyceum Ballroom in 1978 (which incidentally, was my favourite live music location ever - the Only Ones and the Buzzcocks being the best gigs there that I experienced - until I discovered The Market Bar in Inverness...) It is, however, clearly of no consequence. |
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Post by jen on Jun 19, 2024 0:43:27 GMT
This really is despicable. Just what we need - politicians stirring up community tensions for electoral gain: "A Conservative candidate has been criticised for sending letters to British-Pakistani voters allegedly insinuating they should vote for him instead of his Labour rival because of her Indian surname. Marco Longhi, the Tory candidate fighting for re-election in Dudley North against Sonia Kumar, has been accused of using dog-whistle politics ... In a letter to “voters of the British Pakistani/Kashmiri community in Dudley”, Longhi asked if the Labour candidate would speak for Kashmir in parliament. Kumar’s name was in bold, capitalised and underlined." www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/tory-candidate-accused-of-dog-whistle-tactics-against-rival-with-indian-nameIt's a Tory. Trying to stir up hatred and division amongst the people they steal from and oppress is exactly what they do. I have said many times that (small "c") conservative folk deserve better. Best would be if the Tories get absolutely destroyed. The dregs can unite with Farage and the BNP into an out and out racist Brexit Nazi Party, leaving space for moderate conservatives to form a new party to fill the vacuum (unless Starmer totally occupies that gap in the market). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 19, 2024 1:08:44 GMT
“ More than half of the UK public thinks Reform UK leader Nigel Farage would make a bad or terrible prime minister, according to a new poll.
A YouGov survey found 55 per cent of Britons thought Mr Farage would make a bad (12 per cent) or terrible prime minister (43 per cent) a day after he unveiled his party’s manifesto.
Only 27 per cent thought he would make a great (nine per cent) or good (18 per cent) leader, with 65 per cent saying they did not believe Mr Farage would become prime minister in the next ten years.” www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2024-vote-register-reform-farage-sunak-starmer-b2564606.html |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 4:50:57 GMT
mercianIrrespective of your intent or otherwise to vote Green, the list of policies you listed aren't remotely " communist "
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 19, 2024 5:17:55 GMT
Labour leads by pollster
I would of thought by now we would see a little more convergence of the polls (with the differing methodologies to deal with don't knows) as we get nearer the election and people make their minds up. The unaltered figures in most of the polls are similar
27 Deltapoll
25 Redfield & Wilton
24 Techne
23 WeThink
22 Focaldata
22 Whitestone Insight
21 Verian
20 Norstat
20 BMG
20 People Polling
19 YouGov
19 Savanta
18 Survation
17 Opinium
17 JL Partners
16 More in Common
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jun 19, 2024 6:05:42 GMT
Labour leads by pollster I would of thought by now we would see a little more convergence of the polls (with the differing methodologies to deal with don't knows) as we get nearer the election and people make their minds up. The unaltered figures in most of the polls are similar 27 Deltapoll 25 Redfield & Wilton 24 Techne 23 WeThink 22 Focaldata 22 Whitestone Insight 21 Verian 20 Norstat 20 BMG 20 People Polling 19 YouGov 19 Savanta 18 Survation 17 Opinium 17 JL Partners 16 More in Common An average lead of 20.6% per pollster. There’s more pollsters in Neil’s list than there was last time I did this unscientific little snapshot, so it’s not a like for like comparison. However, the last time I did this little exercise, two or three weeks back, that figure was 20.7%. Steady as she blows. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 6:06:35 GMT
Refuk vetting committee meets the candidates.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 19, 2024 6:10:41 GMT
An interesting late campaign quest for a Champions League place there from dark horses Whitestone Insight and Focaldata.
I think More in Common have gone, to be honest.
They need snookers now in their desperate fight for survival. A shame, because they'd started the season so well.
Deltapoll the Man City of pollsters. Absolute Rolls Royce of an outfit.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 6:20:04 GMT
The Tories call on Spaffer to get out the vote.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 19, 2024 6:23:02 GMT
DavePolitico's running poll of polls is always illuminating. It does what you've been doing, basically. As of 10/06/24, Labour's average lead in the polls was 23%. I don't suspect that will have changed much in the last nine days either. Both Labour and Tories edging down a tad but the gap between the two the same would be my guess. The interesting thing about the graph they use to illustrate the figures is the glide path it shows for the Tory vote over the course of the campaign. It's heading south at an astonishing rate. www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ P.S. The poll of polls data and graph reminds us too that Labour have been leading by 15-20% margins for 12 months now. Their lead has widened a little over the campaign, mainly due to rapid Tory decline, but the large lead has been baked in for well over a year now. Almost structural in that respect. No volatility at all.
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Post by shevii on Jun 19, 2024 6:35:06 GMT
YouGov
@yougov
🚨 MRP ALERT / YouGov will be releasing our second MRP of the election campaign today at 5pm - set your watches!
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 6:37:20 GMT
At this time before the general election in 1997 the Tories were polling 13% higher, Labour around 7% higher and the lib dems about the same.
There was of course no refuker party splitting the right vote.
I really can't see any possible alternative to a landslide of never seen before proportions, whether this is good for democracy based on a minority vote share it does represent a sea change in the UK political environment.
Back in 2016 Lord Snooty called for a referendum to put an end to the constant whinging about the European union within the Tories leading to internal divisions and the rise of nationalist xenophobic parties.
How'd that work out?
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 6:38:11 GMT
YouGov
@yougov
🚨 MRP ALERT / YouGov will be releasing our second MRP of the election campaign today at 5pm - set your watches!
Oh I can't wait!
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Post by alec on Jun 19, 2024 6:40:17 GMT
robbiealive - "Someone posted an interesting argument that fundamental reform of the economy would be more likely to occur in a period of constrained rather than abundant economic growth. Can anyone point me to the post." I posted something along these lines. Not sure if that was what you were thinking? ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/137758/thread
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Post by shevii on Jun 19, 2024 6:40:24 GMT
Seems to me that the ultimate judgement on Duffield's views and her performance as a constituency MP will be delivered in 16 days time. Not my Cashman, not by social media chatterboxes, not by pressure group activistas and certainly not by keyboard warriors from afar. But by her constituents. The voters. They will decide. Exactly as it should be too. To some degree perhaps but it is worth pointing out that mostly these things are decided by the national position of the party they represent and very rarely is someone so dreadful that they would get voted out despite good national party ratings. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jun 19, 2024 7:08:14 GMT
Dave Politico's running poll of polls is always illuminating. It does what you've been doing, basically. As of 10/06/24, Labour's average lead in the polls was 23%. I don't suspect that will have changed much in the last nine days either. Both Labour and Tories edging down a tad but the gap between the two the same would be my guess. The interesting thing about the graph they use to illustrate the figures is the glide path it shows for the Tory vote over the course of the campaign. It's heading south at an astonishing rate. www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ P.S. The poll of polls data and graph reminds us too that Labour have been leading by 15-20% margins for 12 months now. Their lead has widened a little over the campaign, mainly due to rapid Tory decline, but the large lead has been baked in for well over a year now. Almost structural in that respect. No volatility at all. Thanks for the Politico stuff Batty. Yes, it's quite remarkable as an old footie commentator may once have said, just how steady the Labour polling has been. That's not just since the start of the campaign, but for a long time before it. Assumptions were made about the Tories - they just had to narrow the gap to whatever degree and climb to at least 30%. Reform have killed that possibility for them. I'm not sure they'll even make 25%. Just so long as Labour don't fall too much, or hopefully at all. I always felt that the most likely time for that to happen would be in the immediate aftermath of the Liberals' (I'm trying to trigger Steve  ) and Greens' manifesto launches. However, Labour's 'vote' has remained steady. That I think shows that it's resilient. I just hope that art also indicates a determined group of people. If so, then the 5th could be a really wonderful day as opposed to just a wonderful one. Here's hoping. |
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) and Greens' manifesto launches. However, Labour's 'vote' has remained steady. That I think shows that it's resilient. I just hope that art also indicates a determined group of people. If so, then the 5th could be a really wonderful day as opposed to just a wonderful one. Here's hoping.