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Post by ping on Jun 18, 2024 18:51:09 GMT
Savanta, bucking the trend for this week, there have been small methodology changes 19pt Labour lead 🗳️First full ballot prompt 🌹Lab 40 (-6) 🌳Con 21 (=) ➡️Reform 14 (+1) 🔶LD 11 (=) 🌍Green 4 (-1) 🎗️SNP 3 (+1) ⬜️Other 5 (+2) 2,046 UK adults, 14-16 June (chg from 12-14 June) The last Savanta was quite a spectacular lead for Labour. I figured it would come down. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 18, 2024 18:51:45 GMT
I hope we see very little of him after July 4th. I'm sure we won't see much of him at Westminster if he gets elected. Or Clacton for that matter. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 18:59:12 GMT
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 19:02:03 GMT
IpsosMori MRP has Didcot & Wantage as-
Con 29 Lab 29 - LD 27.
It confirms earlier MRP finding that seat is 3 way marginal!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 18, 2024 19:03:44 GMT
What about Think 'I don't give a shit' |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 18, 2024 19:05:17 GMT
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Post by nickpoole on Jun 18, 2024 19:11:40 GMT
Yes I had a row about this at a writers’ group years ago. A writers’ group! I/we subject, me/us object - not even that hard really. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 18, 2024 19:14:50 GMT
Yes I had a row about this at a writers’ group years ago. A writers’ group! I/we subject, me/us object - not even that hard really. Sounds like fun. Where can my wife and I join?  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 19:15:10 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 19:19:39 GMT
I hope we see very little of him after July 4th. I'm sure we won't see much of him at Westminster if he gets elected. Or Clacton for that matter. I'd be happy if we saw very little of Farage before July 4th. Sadly, the media seem determined to disappoint me. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 19:22:38 GMT
Back from delivering yet more leaflets. c-a-r-f-r-e-w will be interested to know that early in the round an especially vicious letter box ripped the scab off my healing knuckle wounds so I started bleeding again. The trick after that is not to get blood on the leaflets as this may give voters the wrong idea. |
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Post by James E on Jun 18, 2024 19:35:20 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 19:36:59 GMT
Approaching full moon so we can expect fevered activity. You're playing with fire pointing out facts like that Mercian. I'd lock myself in a shed until the howling stops and its safe to come out. Didn't know Japan was in the EU. Japan is a clever example for them to use at it sounds highly developed but it's economy has barely grown in decades, in part because it's population is plummeting. The whole thing doesn't smell right anyway especially as this country's economy fell far further during covid than that of other EU countries but even taking it at face value Germany has a far larger, broader economy to begin with, a far bigger base and is more prone to ups and downs due to it's manufacturing base. And Italy? Lol hurray the UK outperformed Italy! Well ok but I think if the UK had outperformed say the Netherlands or France they would probably have mentioned that. At the absolute least the UK has lost billions in investment over the last few years. I can speak especially to the software sector with US investment going to Ireland and The Netherlands especially. Also small exporters here have been pummeled but I guess they don't contribute a huge amount to the economy overall so who gives a toss about them eh? Since covid perhaps growth had been greater because it collapsed so badly and so the base was lower Well you can make all the unevidenced assertions you like. Even if they are true, the situation is at best mixed. Yes of course it could be better, but it's hardly the apocalyptic disaster that you and others make out. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 19:47:05 GMT
Margin of error on a sample of 300 is about 5.7 points which is not the most accurate, but when the gap is 32 points, and you’ve dropped 39 from before, if one were a Tory I’m not sure how much relief that would provide. (We don’t seem to have many Tories to ask any more though) (A bigger margin of error might hold out the prospect of things being quite a bit better than they seem, but on the other hand, they may also be quite a bit worse. The greater variation cuts both ways) |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 18, 2024 19:48:19 GMT
Don't knock what 300 can achieve! Sparta only had 300 at Thermopylae. Of course, they were all wiped out, but they tried.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2024 20:05:47 GMT
mercian“ Yes of course it could be better, but it's hardly the apocalyptic disaster that you and others make out.” Have you thought of becoming a speech-writer for Sunak? The above would also make great logo if you cut it back a bit.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2024 20:09:30 GMT
My old home town, late 1950s/early 60s. Sees the light at last. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 20:09:42 GMT
This really is despicable. Just what we need - politicians stirring up community tensions for electoral gain: "A Conservative candidate has been criticised for sending letters to British-Pakistani voters allegedly insinuating they should vote for him instead of his Labour rival because of her Indian surname. Marco Longhi, the Tory candidate fighting for re-election in Dudley North against Sonia Kumar, has been accused of using dog-whistle politics ... In a letter to “voters of the British Pakistani/Kashmiri community in Dudley”, Longhi asked if the Labour candidate would speak for Kashmir in parliament. Kumar’s name was in bold, capitalised and underlined." www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/tory-candidate-accused-of-dog-whistle-tactics-against-rival-with-indian-name |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 20:11:45 GMT
mercian “ Yes of course it could be better, but it's hardly the apocalyptic disaster that you and others make out.” Have you thought of becoming a speech-writer for Sunak? The above would also make great logo if you cut it back a bit. like this? 💥☄️🔥 APOCALYPTIC DISASTER 🔥☄️💥 |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 20:15:15 GMT
Most of those countries were also at one time or another ruled by tyrants such as Napoleon and Hitler. Guess who wasn't? Having invading armies rolling through your country on a frequent basis must give rise to a different mindset to a country that hasn't been invaded (except by parts of itself) for very nearly 1000 years.Because it is the victors who write it, our history says that we invited the Dutch, in the form of William of Orange and his wife Mary, over to rule us. That they arrived with a fleet and an army, rather than taking a ferry to Dover, shows that is being economical with the truth. The Glorious Revolution was just as much an invasion as William the Conqueror's. He was invited by Parliament. An army was necessary because James II resisted at first, though the only significant fighting took place in Ireland. Even if we grant that exception, it's still a lot different to most continental countries who have been invaded many times. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 18, 2024 20:23:03 GMT
"Having a go" amounted to calling her "frit and lazy" which seems remarkably underwhelming cause to have the Labour whip removed. Duffield,who is not slow to insult and demean her opponents, could of course have joined the hustings remotely but it was probably too kuch of an effort for her. Her TERF supporters are now calling Cashman " homophobic" which just goes to show how deranged they are. Overall it does show that the Labour Party is not a reliable ally of the LBQT community especially as it has been cosying io to the Tufton Street "LGB Alliance". I think with regards to Duffield there is quite a bit of evidence to suggest she is "lazy"- the allegations of thousands of unanswered emails to constituents for example. While of course we have to be aware of dangers to MPs, it doesn't stop her bringing in security as required which is what other MPs tend to do. I'm not aware of pro trans activists involved in physical violence and sure they might give her a hard time but that's politics. It's noticeable that despite being in the same wing of the party as the current movers and shakers, she gets little support from them and does a lot of complaining about that lack of support from them. This suggests to me that they know the score. That said if you are in the same party as her and come up with those sorts of comments then it would be a surprise if the party didn't take action against those comments. Seems to me that the ultimate judgement on Duffield's views and her performance as a constituency MP will be delivered in 16 days time. Not my Cashman, not by social media chatterboxes, not by pressure group activistas and certainly not by keyboard warriors from afar. But by her constituents. The voters. They will decide. Exactly as it should be too. |
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 20:40:58 GMT
Tonight's MRP survey has some interesting stuff for would-be tactical voters. In addition to the Didcot & Wantage data mentioned earlier , we have the following- Wimbledon - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24 Woking - Con 30 Lab 30 LD 25
The prediction for Waveney Valley is very different to what was served up by the Survation survey a few days ago which had Labour ahead with the Greens in 4th place. Ipsos Mori has reversed the order with the Greens on 44 and Labour way back on 10!
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Post by shevii on Jun 18, 2024 21:00:23 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 21:01:25 GMT
Because it is the victors who write it, our history says that we invited the Dutch, in the form of William of Orange and his wife Mary, over to rule us. That they arrived with a fleet and an army, rather than taking a ferry to Dover, shows that is being economical with the truth. The Glorious Revolution was just as much an invasion as William the Conqueror's. He was invited by Parliament. An army was necessary because James II resisted at first, though the only significant fighting took place in Ireland. Even if we grant that exception, it's still a lot different to most continental countries who have been invaded many times. puts it slightly differently. The prospect of a Catholic dynasty destroyed James's political authority, and led a few of his domestic opponents to seek external support in removing him.
Although there was little sign of armed English domestic resistance, both William and the Dutch States General were concerned James would support Louis XIV of France in the Nine Years' War. Claiming to be responding to an Invitation asking him to "protect the Protestant religion", William landed in Devon with 20,000 men on 5 November 1688.It was all about the risk of James II supporting Louis XIV against the Dutch, so William invaded Britain to prevent it. |
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Post by alec on Jun 18, 2024 21:02:58 GMT
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Post by alec on Jun 18, 2024 21:06:01 GMT
Not great news if your former big donors tell people to back Labour - www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00rgq24xvoOf course, in time honoured tradition, many Labourites will be aghast that such a man could be tempted to back Starmer, but that's life. Like Murdoch's Sun, many of these people don't actually believe in anything political, other than themselves, and they spend this money, time and effort not to promote what they believe but to buy influence. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 21:09:54 GMT
Since we seem to have gone a whole day without an argument about Jeremy Corbyn I thought I'd throw this one in
Won't be long before he's officially classed as a National Treasure 
More than half of all voters believe that former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn should be allowed back into the party if he is re-elected as an MP in his constituency of Islington North.
Exclusive polling for The Independent by Techne shows that while 56 per cent of all voters say he should be readmitted, the number is much higher among Labour voters, with eight in 10 saying that Mr Corbyn should be allowed to rejoin the Labour Party.
Why would he want to? Didn't he defy the Labour whip over 500 times? I'm open to correction on the exact number, but it was a lot. That suggests to me that he was always in the wrong party. |
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Post by alec on Jun 18, 2024 21:12:13 GMT
Don't know how/if the numbers stack up here, but if the Leeds example is correct, and a £9m investment in care home beds saved the trust £17m - £23m then it's something of a no brainer. Just who are the duffers running the NHS for these last 14 years if it's that simple to improve things? www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/18/labour-says-it-would-let-nhs-in-england-buy-more-social-care-bedsIntuitively this seems right, in broad principle at least. Hospital bed stays will likely more expensive, although staffing needs for people who aren't actually sick won't be that great, but freeing beds to reduce waiting lists should also save costs, as delays to treatment make those treatments more difficult and costly. I think Wes Streeting has had quite a good campaign so far. In the past I haven't much liked him, but he, and Labour more generally, seem to be scoring hits on a regular basis. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 18, 2024 21:16:47 GMT
I'm not impressed. I'm on Yougov's "expert" panel. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2024 21:20:18 GMT
Yeah, sounds harsh but in far too many cases the effect of being deeply convinced of the existence of a “god”, plus the numerous holy laws that follow such a belief, is either the believers’ or their opponents’ death. Or both. |
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