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Post by robbiealive on Jun 18, 2024 9:49:27 GMT
mercian "Data collected at polling station showed 0.25% of those who went to a polling station were not able to vote as a result of not being able to show ID," I heard a chap from the electoral commission on the radio today saying the a lot of those turned away came back later with the relevant id."[/quote] 2 million people lack voter ID? How many of them, who wished to vote, did not go to a polling station because they knew they would be turned away. The Electoral Commission cannot survey this group and hence has no idea. The EC is feeble and seems toothles: eg., the Tories ignored their major proposals for revising the new system. Labour shud scrap Voter ID as soon as possible. I think that's a LibDem manifesto item.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 18, 2024 9:49:42 GMT
For those who enjoy my periodic Tales from the Campaign Trail in Redditch and the Villages, a trailer that another one is coming soon on Friday, and for those who don't, a warning and an alert to swerve my soon to be posted verbose ramblings and musings. I mean, I don't want to ruin anyone's weekend here. The England football team may do that on Thursday evening anyway!
On Thursday, I plunge into the badlands of Redditch itself to do some door-knocking in a housing estate that should contain plenty of potential switchers from Tory to Labour. The sort of people Labour need to win over in their droves if they are to recapture the seat. I'd say it's bellwether territory in that regard. So far I've been leafletting and canvassing in traditionally difficult terrain for Labour. Thursday should be different. We should get a good idea as to how this thing is going.
As we get into the final couple of weeks of this election campaign, and remaining days are now being counted in the teens, the Labour campaign notches up a gear or two and I will become progressively more involved.
Therefore, at least one more Tale to be told after my Friday update.
We're entering the final strait soon and the finishing line is starting to hove into view. Some Labour strategists are saying that after the heavy and dense prose so far they want to make the Labour campaign start to "sing" now over its closing stages. Lyrically, maybe poetically.
Have we got those poets? We'll soon see, I suppose.
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Post by James E on Jun 18, 2024 9:57:58 GMT
Thanks for the warm welcome everyone  Here in Cambridge I've only had one leaflet, from Labour. It's such a stark contrast to the vibrant campaigning of the local elections where we had leafleting and visits from all the major parties except Tory. You can barely tell there's a general election on here. Thinking back to 2019, it was rather similar though. I have some thoughts about Cambridge, and MRPs, but I'm digging into some more data first. Related to it, I recall reading on the old UKPR that YouGov may have better reach to typical non-voters in its panel (being one of the first online-only pollsters). Does anyone know if that is/was true? And if in the years since does anyone know if other pollsters have improved their reach? As others have noted, YouGov are the only pollster who have a real track-record for their MRPs. Their 2019 one was not as successful as 2017, but was still within the outer limit of MoE. But they found that they under-polled those who paid low attention to politics, which in turn led them to understate the Con vote then. They have since then ensured that they include more 'low attention to politics' respondents in their polls, though unsurprisingly they tend to get a low response rate, and as a result generally need to upweight the responses they do get. This might be part of the reason for the volatility of YouGov's published figures compared to other pollsters. YouGov do also include the correct proportion (34%) of those who did not vote in 2019, as do Survation and Techne, for what that's worth. As for Cambridge ( I live just outside it) I think a low swing is likely. Electoral Calculus have Labour winning with 51%, up 3 points. This is likely to be the outcome in a lot of strongly Remain Labour seats, not just in cities such as London, Bristol or Liverpool. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Cambridge |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 9:58:37 GMT
At the moment this appears to be on a greater scale than 1997. That year we had Goldsmith's Referendum party , but that was not eating into the core of the Tory vote in the way that Reform appears to now be doing. Labour did pick up quite a few seats from third place in 1997 despite the LDs then polling a respectable 16%/17% under Ashdown. Whilst the LDs will still benefit in a good few seats simply on account of the scale of the Tory collapse, I suspecting we will see more leapfrogging by Labour than took place in 1997. I did not expect this to happen - certainly not on this scale - but the evidence mounts with millions likely to have voted by the end of this week. I had my own experience of leapfrogging in 1995. I stood for our local council in a three seat ward, all of which were held by the LibDems. The Tories had come 4th, 5th and 6th in the previous election and we were nowhere. I agreed to stand as a paper candidate as I really didn't have the time to be a councillor - I was commuting up to London from Clacton every day for one thing. I thought I had no chance of getting in, especially as everyone seemed to be just voting for who seemed best positioned to beat the Tories that year. I did no canvassing, no leafleting and on election day itself I was up in London at work.
Imagine my surprise therefore when I beat one of the LibDems to get the third seat.......
You got elected without any leafleting?? No aching limbs, no sprained fingers, not even any light grazing? Doesn’t seem right somehow. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 18, 2024 9:59:46 GMT
Of course it's not just students that can register to vote in two places, second home owners can also do the same. In fact they could have many homes and register to vote in each Vote early, vote often. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 10:01:58 GMT
Yes, the Telegraph aren’t the greatest fans of home working. The readership aren’t keen - all those retirees maybe get a bit jealous... (People don’t tend to point out Guardian bias tho’)Partly because it is hard to work the Guardian out, apart from their obvious nostalgia for the days when the Liberal Party was a major player. That they hated Corbyn was not a surprise but they seem pretty hostile to Starmer as well, which is less expected. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 10:04:31 GMT
On Thursday, I plunge into the badlands of Redditch itself to do some door-knocking... Are door-knockers as troublesome as letterboxes? What other problems lie in wait for the canvasser? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 10:05:02 GMT
Most of those countries were also at one time or another ruled by tyrants such as Napoleon and Hitler. Guess who wasn't? Having invading armies rolling through your country on a frequent basis must give rise to a different mindset to a country that hasn't been invaded (except by parts of itself) for very nearly 1000 years.Because it is the victors who write it, our history says that we invited the Dutch, in the form of William of Orange and his wife Mary, over to rule us. That they arrived with a fleet and an army, rather than taking a ferry to Dover, shows that is being economical with the truth. The Glorious Revolution was just as much an invasion as William the Conqueror's. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 18, 2024 10:05:03 GMT
I had my own experience of leapfrogging in 1995. I stood for our local council in a three seat ward, all of which were held by the LibDems. The Tories had come 4th, 5th and 6th in the previous election and we were nowhere. I agreed to stand as a paper candidate as I really didn't have the time to be a councillor - I was commuting up to London from Clacton every day for one thing. I thought I had no chance of getting in, especially as everyone seemed to be just voting for who seemed best positioned to beat the Tories that year. I did no canvassing, no leafleting and on election day itself I was up in London at work.
Imagine my surprise therefore when I beat one of the LibDems to get the third seat.......
No leafleting?? No aching limbs, no sprained fingers, not even any grazing? Doesn’t seem right somehow. Believe me, I've made up for it since. My knuckles as still suffering from the last election, never mind this one. Every year I put forward a motion at our CLP for annual conference that the next Labour Government should ban letterboxes lower than waist level and that all springs and brushes behind the letterbox be banned. In spite of enthusiastic support from fellow leafleters, it somehow always seems to lose out to issues such as the NHS, Education, Cost of Living etc..... |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 10:06:37 GMT
Yes, the Telegraph aren’t the greatest fans of home working. The readership aren’t keen - all those retirees maybe get a bit jealous... (People don’t tend to point out Guardian bias tho’)Partly because it is hard to work the Guardian out, apart from their obvious nostalgia for the days when the Liberal Party was a major player. That they hated Corbyn was not a surprise but they seem pretty hostile to Starmer as well, which is less expected. Well some of it isn’t that subtle, like the pro-austerity bias, or the remainer bias, but I don’t recall many complaining about it |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 10:09:35 GMT
No leafleting?? No aching limbs, no sprained fingers, not even any grazing? Doesn’t seem right somehow. Believe me, I've made up for it since. My knuckles as still suffering from the last election, never mind this one. Every year I put forward a motion at our CLP for annual conference that the next Labour Government should ban letterboxes lower than waist level and that all springs and brushes behind the letterbox be banned. In spite of enthusiastic support from fellow leafleters, it somehow always seems to lose out to issues such as the NHS, Education, Cost of Living etc..... Yes it’s crazy that it loses out to NHS when it could ease the burden on the NHS. With better letterboxes, if there was more leafleting it could be better for people’s health, getting their 10,000 steps in... |
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Post by Mark on Jun 18, 2024 10:18:17 GMT
One factor that has not been mentioned is...weather ad turnout. ok, it's more of a factor in winter elections, but, there will always be some that won't bother if it's peeing it down, or if it's really hot. Here is an early peek at what we could be expecting... ---
Week 3: Monday 1st July - Sunday 7th July
---
This week looks likely to be somewhat more unsettled, with the east Atlantic trough often lying very close to Britain. It will probably be warmer than average due to a relatively high frequency of southerly and south-westerly winds, but not unusually so, with the east and southeast of England most likely to see somewhat above-average temperatures. However, with pressure likely to be above average to the east and north-east of Britain, it may be relatively dry at times in the east and south-east, with bands of rain interspersed with showers more frequently affecting the west and especially north-west of Britain.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be up to 2C above average in inland parts of south-east England but probably nearer normal in the west, where most places are likely to be 1C or less above the long-term normal. It will probably be wetter and cloudier than average in many western, especially south-western, regions, but eastern Britain and northern Scotland will probably be sunnier than average, and parts of the east may also come out drier than average. www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 10:19:13 GMT
Of course it's not just students that can register to vote in two places, second home owners can also do the same. In fact they could have many homes and register to vote in each Which gives them the advantage of legally being able to vote in the constituency where their vote will be most effective. Sadly, my vote has never been effective as I've always lived in constituencies that were won by either Tory or Labour. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 18, 2024 10:29:05 GMT
“ London is dragging down Britain’s productivity growth as office staff continue to work from home, new figures show.
Productivity in the capital tumbled in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics, taking output per hour worked – a key tool to measure each employee’s efforts – to its lowest level since 2009.
London’s productivity dropped by 2.7pc between 2019 and 2022, the ONS said, with Wales the only other region to fall.
The strongest growth came in the North West of England, where productivity jumped by 7.9pc over the same period.
Dwindling productivity in the capital is a hangover from the pandemic, according to economists, as they said remote working has harmed growth.
Adrian Pabst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said: “There are very few jobs which can be done as well at home as they can be at the office.
“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out.
“There is not the same coordination, not the same interactions and people do not feel as motivated. There are all sorts of things that do not happen when you are in the office.”
London has been more affected by remote working than other parts of the country because it has a large proportion of office workers.””
Telegraph As expected from the Telegraph and the NIESR, this is looking at one very marginal metric and deciding it means something they wanted to be true is. "Regional" Productivity measurements are not a useful metric for what they are trying to claim. London isn't 'dragging down the rest of the country' because of out of office workers... Out of office workers have enabled productivity to be spread more around the country, and over-all improve. In Q1 2024, across the entire UK, output per hour worked increased by 1.7% above its pre-coronavirus level. That's only a problem if you happen to be, for instance, highly invested in Office buildings in London and highly disinterested in Levelling Up the North. Productivity statistics tend to be flawed for two reasons. Firstly, productivity is the number of products or services completed within a given time (e.g. an hour, a shift, etc), so it is not measured in money/value (higher productivity means lower value per unit). Secondly, the statistics merges intensity and productivity, while they are very different (higher intensity eventually results in the shortening of the working time because of the number of errors). In the 15th century tenants in England worked around 1350 hours a year. The serfs earlier even less. |
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Post by alec on Jun 18, 2024 10:32:52 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out." I'm currently working on a big project which has heavy involvement from civil servants. They are spread from Edinburgh to London, and several points in between. All work from home some of the time, most are at home most of the time. They've been excellent. Highly efficient, flexible, and on top of everything. Once again, the Telegraph talks bollocks.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 10:36:01 GMT
Labour lead week 4 (index of Deltapoll, We Think, Opinium, Redfield&Wilton, SavantaComRes, and Techne polling)  This is continuing to increase (before the latest Deltapoll was published, it was showing a slight decrease). Again, the first point is my last "quarterly" average from 1st April to 22nd May. Labour's VI is falling slightly, but the Tories VI is falling more, so the gap between them is widening. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 18, 2024 10:37:14 GMT
I have just received my fourth different Reform leaflet. Anyone would think they are trying to win this constituency!
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Post by jayblanc on Jun 18, 2024 10:37:40 GMT
As expected from the Telegraph and the NIESR, this is looking at one very marginal metric and deciding it means something they wanted to be true is. "Regional" Productivity measurements are not a useful metric for what they are trying to claim. London isn't 'dragging down the rest of the country' because of out of office workers... Out of office workers have enabled productivity to be spread more around the country, and over-all improve. In Q1 2024, across the entire UK, output per hour worked increased by 1.7% above its pre-coronavirus level. That's only a problem if you happen to be, for instance, highly invested in Office buildings in London and highly disinterested in Levelling Up the North. Yes, the Telegraph aren’t the greatest fans of home working. The readership aren’t keen - all those retirees maybe get a bit jealous... (People don’t tend to point out Guardian bias tho’) "Home Worker" turns out to be a misnomer. There's a lot of people who work from the Library, the Coffee Shop, or anywhere else they feel comfortable getting work done. Theres even those who have desks at shared office spaces in their own town, rather than commute. Turns out it's not working from home that was the big life improvement, it was *not* having to commute into a central office where a hovering middle manager could count how many paperclips you'd been using. |
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Post by athena on Jun 18, 2024 11:03:38 GMT
... it is hard to work the Guardian out, apart from their obvious nostalgia for the days when the Liberal Party was a major player. That they hated Corbyn was not a surprise but they seem pretty hostile to Starmer as well, which is less expected. Admittedly I've read very little of the Guardian's election coverage, but my impression is that they've been cheerleading very enthusiastically for Lab, with lots of stories that seem designed to cast a positive light on Lab policies and people. I say 'seem' because I rarely do more than glance at the titles, but when I have read them there's been no substance to the positive implications of the headline. Reading these puff pieces has just made me more cynical, but perhaps they herd a few voters back into the Lab (ABT) fold. |
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Post by James E on Jun 18, 2024 11:08:11 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 34% (-5) SNP: 30% (+1) CON: 13% (+1) LDM: 8% (=) RFM: 7% (+3) GRN: 6% (-1) Via @yougov , 3-7 Jun. Changes w/ 13-17 May. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_ScotlandVI_Tatical_240607_V2.pdfA 4 point Lab lead is close to the recent average for all Scottish Westminster polls. This is also true for the 4 Scottish YouGov polls so far this year, which have shown Labour leading by 2,1, 10 and now 4 points. We've now had 8 Scottish Westminster polls and MRPs from YouGov and Survation since the election was called. Nearly all of these are in the range of a Labour lead in Scotland of 0-6 points, but with two big outliers: an R&W with Labour 10% ahead, and the Survation MRP with SNP 7 points ahead. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 11:14:37 GMT
"Home Worker" turns out to be a misnomer. There's a lot of people who work from the Library, the Coffee Shop, or anywhere else they feel comfortable getting work done. Theres even those who have desks at shared office spaces in their own town, rather than commute. Turns out it's not working from home that was the big life improvement, it was *not* having to commute into a central office where a hovering middle manager could count how many paperclips you'd been using. Long before Covid (or even SARS), my commute was out of London, round the M25 and down the M3 to Farnborough, which took me (in those days) an hour-and-a-quarter each way (even with knowledge of alternative routes for when the M3 or M25 was blocked). After the first year, I was fortunate to find a fellow employee who lived only a few miles from me and we started car-sharing. Even just not having to drive more than a few miles on alternate days resulted in a distinct reduction in my stress (and I think his also). The worst part of commuting into a central office is the sheer crowding of people on the Tube and buses, which makes it difficult to concentrate on serious work (even when you haven't got bosses who count paperclips). But, of course, measures of productivity don't count your time commuting. If I work from home then I have effectively two or more hours a day extra to complete my work. As the only paid work I have done since officially retiring has been as a self-employed consultant, I never have to negotiate with a boss, just with a client. |
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Post by athena on Jun 18, 2024 11:19:06 GMT
I have just received my fourth different Reform leaflet. Anyone would think they are trying to win this constituency! Whereas in my Lab-LD marginal I'm starting to get the impression that neither party is greatly interested in winning the seat!
We've had a grand total of three pieces of election literature (2 Lab; 1 LD) and there's been no sign of canvassers. No window posters in my area - unless you count leftovers from the locals - and I've seen only one garden stake (LD) on my bike rides. It's the quietest election I can remember in this constituency. Based on local context and candidate factors I've been assuming that Lab will retain the seat (I don't think the boundary changes have altered things much), but as it was very marginal last time (<1000) I'm surprised there's been so little activity. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 11:20:05 GMT
Yes, the Telegraph aren’t the greatest fans of home working. The readership aren’t keen - all those retirees maybe get a bit jealous... (People don’t tend to point out Guardian bias tho’) "Home Worker" turns out to be a misnomer. There's a lot of people who work from the Library, the Coffee Shop, or anywhere else they feel comfortable getting work done. Theres even those who have desks at shared office spaces in their own town, rather than commute. Turns out it's not working from home that was the big life improvement, it was *not* having to commute into a central office where a hovering middle manager could count how many paperclips you'd been using. Yes, some of us were doing that before it was a thing! There’s quite a lot doing it where I live nowadays, because there are lots of coffee shops. Before the pandemic as I mentioned before, I rented an office. But the “home” thing does seem to vex some people. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 11:23:30 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out." I'm currently working on a big project which has heavy involvement from civil servants. They are spread from Edinburgh to London, and several points in between. All work from home some of the time, most are at home most of the time. They've been excellent. Highly efficient, flexible, and on top of everything. Once again, the Telegraph talks bollocks. Good for talking points though, finding out what people think. (And it’s quite handy on things like fusion, and green investment in China etc.) |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 18, 2024 11:29:53 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 34% (-5) SNP: 30% (+1) CON: 13% (+1) LDM: 8% (=) RFM: 7% (+3) GRN: 6% (-1) Via @yougov , 3-7 Jun. Changes w/ 13-17 May. A 4 point Lab lead is close to the recent average for all Scottish Westminster polls. This is also true for the 4 Scottish YouGov polls so far this year, which have shown Labour leading by 2,1, 10 and now 4 points. I've put those new figures into Electoral Calculus, using YouGov's latest GB polling for the overall figures and it predicts for Scotland 31 Labour, 21 SNP, 4 LibDem, 1 Tory (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; a tight 3-way marginal with Tories on 30.7%, SNP on 27.5% and Labour on 27.4% without tactical voting). So Scotland could soon be a Tory-free country. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 11:38:51 GMT
... it is hard to work the Guardian out, apart from their obvious nostalgia for the days when the Liberal Party was a major player. That they hated Corbyn was not a surprise but they seem pretty hostile to Starmer as well, which is less expected. Admittedly I've read very little of the Guardian's election coverage, but my impression is that they've been cheerleading very enthusiastically for Lab, with lots of stories that seem designed to cast a positive light on Lab policies and people. I say 'seem' because I rarely do more than glance at the titles, but when I have read them there's been no substance to the positive implications of the headline. Reading these puff pieces has just made me more cynical, but perhaps they herd a few voters back into the Lab (ABT) fold. Well I've read a lot of it. The Guardian is an anti-Conservative paper but not necessarily pro-Labour. Its coverage is a mixed picture and every day there has been some comment piece critical of Labour's positioning. Just from today's edition for example: www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-eu-policy-economic-impact-brexitwww.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/red-wall-labour-general-electionwww.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/17/such-disrespect-diane-abbott-row-looms-over-race-for-hackney-north-seatWhen it comes to the end of the campaign I'm confident that the Guardian will not endorse Labour outright but call for anti-Conservative/Reform tactical voting with a strong number of Lib Dem MPs to "keep Labour honest". It is the line they took in the last two elections. In 2015 they hinted that while their preference was a Labour/Lib Dem coalition they wouldn't be unhappy if the Con/Lib Dem coalition continued. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 11:44:28 GMT
As expected from the Telegraph and the NIESR, this is looking at one very marginal metric and deciding it means something they wanted to be true is. "Regional" Productivity measurements are not a useful metric for what they are trying to claim. London isn't 'dragging down the rest of the country' because of out of office workers... Out of office workers have enabled productivity to be spread more around the country, and over-all improve. In Q1 2024, across the entire UK, output per hour worked increased by 1.7% above its pre-coronavirus level. That's only a problem if you happen to be, for instance, highly invested in Office buildings in London and highly disinterested in Levelling Up the North. Productivity statistics tend to be flawed for two reasons. Firstly, productivity is the number of products or services completed within a given time (e.g. an hour, a shift, etc), so it is not measured in money/value (higher productivity means lower value per unit). Yes, some argue nowadays that things like social media, because they may be provided for free aren’t counted as economic activity, and aren’t included in gdp directly since they don’t have a price. They might have productivity effects though… A loss of biodiversity might not get included in GDP either, but long-term effects could be substantial |
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Post by alec on Jun 18, 2024 11:51:02 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - I do find the whole work from home debate quite interesting though. There's no doubt that it causes some issues, but my overwhelming sense is that if you run a well managed operation, with staff respected and valued, with decent managers, you can adopt a largely remote working system with success. You have to trust your workforce though, so if you're trying to run a poor management operation but still expect staff to die for the company, wfh won't be as smooth. I am fascinated to see the real anxiety among some company managers about losing control. I think much of this is just poor quality managers feeling threatened. But I would acknowledge I'm biased. It suits me well, and doesn't present any technical or practical problems. My current work has seen us develop commercial relationships with seven different partners, none of whom I've met in person, and we're now working up an investment plan for a couple of million, setting up a new national venture, and everyone involves is telling me it's been one of the most efficient projects they've been involved with because we don't fanny around with long face to face meetings, loads of travel time, office sickness etc etc. But I do think there's a certain type of middle and senior manager that hates not having people in front of them in a physical space, because that's how they feel in control.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 18, 2024 11:54:30 GMT
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 12:12:33 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 34% (-5) SNP: 30% (+1) CON: 13% (+1) LDM: 8% (=) RFM: 7% (+3) GRN: 6% (-1) Via @yougov , 3-7 Jun. Changes w/ 13-17 May. A 4 point Lab lead is close to the recent average for all Scottish Westminster polls. This is also true for the 4 Scottish YouGov polls so far this year, which have shown Labour leading by 2,1, 10 and now 4 points. We've now had 8 Scottish Westminster polls and MRPs from YouGov and Survation since the election was called. Nearly all of these are in the range of a Labour lead in Scotland of 0-6 points, but with two big outliers: an R&W with Labour 10% ahead, and the Survation MRP with SNP 7 points ahead. Already more than ten days old though! |
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