steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 4:06:37 GMT
" tells the truth "
19%
" tells it how it is"
33%
So for a third of the electorate " telling it how it is" apparently is unrelated to reality.
Which seems about right.
Fuck facts it's feelings that count.
At the Euro millionaire kick ball competition I will of course be identifying as the supporters friend the fourth official at the VAR Juan Martinez Munuera
|
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jun 18, 2024 4:51:42 GMT
If Adolf Hitler were here today, they'd send a limousine anyway... Joe Strummer, "White Man In Hammersmith Palais", The Clash, 1978. actually it's All over, people changing votes Along with their overcoats If Adolf Hitler flew in today They'd send a limousine anyway |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,390
|
Post by neilj on Jun 18, 2024 5:17:34 GMT
This is interesting, some of the polling companies reallocate don't knows, which tends to favour the tories But there is now evidence when pressed more don't knows will break for Labour than the tories Survation Labour 22% Tories 14% Still undecided 43% x.com/TomHCalver/status/1802744645132132510 |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jun 18, 2024 5:26:31 GMT
This is interesting, some of the polling companies reallocate don't knows, which tends to favour the tories But there is now evidence when pressed more don't knows will break for Labour than the tories Survation Labour 22% Tories 14% Still undecided 43% x.com/TomHCalver/status/1802744645132132510even if that 43% all went Tory it would still be goodnight Vienna for the tories |
|
|
|
Post by catfuzz on Jun 18, 2024 6:23:29 GMT
It’s interesting how the presentation of facts can alter how people take in the information, for example:
JL Partners Poll show Kier Starmer ranks highest across a range of attributes in new poll, including being ‘competant’ , ‘shares my views’ and ‘understands normal people’. Only Nigel Farage beat him on two counts on most ‘charismatic’ and ‘tells it how it is’.
It’s as if the tweet is designed to create a bit of sensationalism, rather than present the findings as is though to be fair it could also highlight the volume of don’t knows, which is the real winner in a fair number of these.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jun 18, 2024 6:40:31 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP. As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet; "It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?" Rod Liddle is an SDP member as is the old UKIP stalwart and former Daily Express man Patrick O'Flynn. Say no more. Expect Toby Young to join soon. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 6:51:14 GMT
A worth a watch the end of normal politics in the USA the rise of the frog faced hate gimp here shows that we're not immune. This isn't some random right wing loon it's the campaign manager for disgraced former president Trump. youtu.be/lSpNYqgXCEc?si=zjjaGqtZuvMZJ0ZR |
|
|
|
Post by jib on Jun 18, 2024 6:55:18 GMT
I am going to laugh for an entire week. I suggest you start with the FT... Approaching full moon so we can expect fevered activity. You're playing with fire pointing out facts like that Mercian. I'd lock myself in a shed until the howling stops and its safe to come out. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jun 18, 2024 7:19:33 GMT
I am going to laugh for an entire week. I suggest you start with the FT... Approaching full moon so we can expect fevered activity. You're playing with fire pointing out facts like that Mercian. I'd lock myself in a shed until the howling stops and its safe to come out. Didn't know Japan was in the EU. Japan is a clever example for them to use at it sounds highly developed but it's economy has barely grown in decades, in part because it's population is plummeting. The whole thing doesn't smell right anyway especially as this country's economy fell far further during covid than that of other EU countries but even taking it at face value Germany has a far larger, broader economy to begin with, a far bigger base and is more prone to ups and downs due to it's manufacturing base. And Italy? Lol hurray the UK outperformed Italy! Well ok but I think if the UK had outperformed say the Netherlands or France they would probably have mentioned that. At the absolute least the UK has lost billions in investment over the last few years. I can speak especially to the software sector with US investment going to Ireland and The Netherlands especially. Also small exporters here have been pummeled but I guess they don't contribute a huge amount to the economy overall so who gives a toss about them eh? Since covid perhaps growth had been greater because it collapsed so badly and so the base was lower |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 7:28:06 GMT
I had my own experience of leapfrogging in 1995. I stood for our local council in a three seat ward, all of which were held by the LibDems. The Tories had come 4th, 5th and 6th in the previous election and we were nowhere. I agreed to stand as a paper candidate as I really didn't have the time to be a councillor - I was commuting up to London from Clacton every day for one thing. I thought I had no chance of getting in, especially as everyone seemed to be just voting for who seemed best positioned to beat the Tories that year. I did no canvassing, no leafleting and on election day itself I was up in London at work.
Imagine my surprise therefore when I beat one of the LibDems to get the third seat.......
Things of that sort are the cause of quite a few local government by-elections. Hope you did your full term  |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jun 18, 2024 7:28:42 GMT
I would just like to say what an excellent day we have had on UKPR2 with a significant number of very good posts. Of course the polls issued today have been a big help in my enjoyment. I would also like to congratulate Jen re her chioce of language and some very good comments. I have even given her several likes which I refuse to do when she uses the F word. Well meant but slightly patronising I would say. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jun 18, 2024 7:30:52 GMT
Personally I think swearing's fucking great. It's known for it's therapeutic properties. So do I - and it's all part of our rich cultural and linguistic heritage. As long as no-one's forcing anyone to swear that's fine. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 7:34:06 GMT
And thinking of electoral procedure, this will of course be the first general election and the first really mass vote to have the voter ID rules applied to it. I wonder that effect that will have in depressing turnout. "Data collected at polling station showed 0.25% of those who went to a polling station were not able to vote as a result of not being able to show ID," I heard a chap from the electoral commission on the radio today saying the a lot of those turned away came back later with the relevant id. It is the ones who are put off from ever leaving home because they know they don't have the ID that are the problem. We believe it cost us 3 council seats in 2023. |
|
|
|
Post by davem on Jun 18, 2024 7:36:26 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP. As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet; "It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?" Rod Liddle is an SDP member as is the old UKIP stalwart and former Daily Express man Patrick O'Flynn. Say no more. Expect Toby Young to join soon. It says a lot when the SDP have an agreement with Reform to be given a free run in some seats, including Hexham, where Reform have not fielded a candidate, but are supporting SDP. The original members of the SDP who are still around have made it clear that the current version of the party is not the one they formed. The current Party was formed in 1990. Policies include, leaving the ECHR. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jun 18, 2024 7:41:41 GMT
I challenge alec to be make an anagram out of that politician's name! You will be amazed, but just check this out, it is a perfect anagram for,,, complete and utterly pointless far right CSU anti semitic lying sexless bavarian who was disappointed by a british tory with his dick in a pig it's amazing! “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburgy” A quick count of the Xs shows that can't be right. I think you meant,,, complete and utterly pointless far right CSU anti semitic lying sexless bavarian who was disappointed by a british tory with his dick in a pig xxx |
|
|
|
Post by Old Southendian on Jun 18, 2024 8:13:42 GMT
Does the same caveat apply as surfaced in (I think) 2019, that the numbers were for new applications rather than new registrations? ie that anyone who was already registered who either updated some aspect of their details (or just couldn't remember if/where they were registered and put their details in again to make sure) all got counted as "new"? Yes, I think this is just new applications, no guarantee that the person was not already registered at that, or another, address. |
|
|
|
Post by Old Southendian on Jun 18, 2024 8:23:53 GMT
Of course it skews low, since older people will tend to already be registered. About 32,000,000 people voted in the last GE, so amounts to about 6% of the likely voting population. Maybe I'll try to dig back to see the equivalent numbers for 2019.
EDIT: it's much less than 2019 with almost 4 million new registrations, but perhaps lower partly because of the recent local/mayoral/etc elections, which generated a smaller burst of registrations in April.
I find this hard to understand. We get a voter registration form every year (around October from memory) and duly fill it in and return it. Are there millions of people who keep moving about so they have to register at the last minute? I would imagine that in the case of the younger applications, a lot of it is due to moving house or similar since the last voter registration form came round. Paricularly for those of student age, they may be registered at their University (for the local elections) and then need to register at their parents house since most Universities will have broken up by July. |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jun 18, 2024 8:41:25 GMT
I had my own experience of leapfrogging in 1995. I stood for our local council in a three seat ward, all of which were held by the LibDems. The Tories had come 4th, 5th and 6th in the previous election and we were nowhere. I agreed to stand as a paper candidate as I really didn't have the time to be a councillor - I was commuting up to London from Clacton every day for one thing. I thought I had no chance of getting in, especially as everyone seemed to be just voting for who seemed best positioned to beat the Tories that year. I did no canvassing, no leafleting and on election day itself I was up in London at work.
Imagine my surprise therefore when I beat one of the LibDems to get the third seat.......
Things of that sort are the cause of quite a few local government by-elections. Hope you did your full term I did and became chair of the Leisure, Culture and Heritage Committee (this was in the days before portfolio holders and cabinets) as well as chair of the Museums sub-committee. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 8:42:08 GMT
Listening to a phone in today refuker called in to say how do people know Farage's fantasy accounting wouldn't work.
Oh I don't know how about basic arithmetic.
Refuk a limited company for limited people.
|
|
|
|
Post by jayblanc on Jun 18, 2024 8:42:25 GMT
“ London is dragging down Britain’s productivity growth as office staff continue to work from home, new figures show.
Productivity in the capital tumbled in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics, taking output per hour worked – a key tool to measure each employee’s efforts – to its lowest level since 2009.
London’s productivity dropped by 2.7pc between 2019 and 2022, the ONS said, with Wales the only other region to fall.
The strongest growth came in the North West of England, where productivity jumped by 7.9pc over the same period.
Dwindling productivity in the capital is a hangover from the pandemic, according to economists, as they said remote working has harmed growth.
Adrian Pabst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said: “There are very few jobs which can be done as well at home as they can be at the office.
“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out.
“There is not the same coordination, not the same interactions and people do not feel as motivated. There are all sorts of things that do not happen when you are in the office.”
London has been more affected by remote working than other parts of the country because it has a large proportion of office workers.””
Telegraph As expected from the Telegraph and the NIESR, this is looking at one very marginal metric and deciding it means something they wanted to be true is. "Regional" Productivity measurements are not a useful metric for what they are trying to claim. London isn't 'dragging down the rest of the country' because of out of office workers... Out of office workers have enabled productivity to be spread more around the country, and over-all improve. In Q1 2024, across the entire UK, output per hour worked increased by 1.7% above its pre-coronavirus level. That's only a problem if you happen to be, for instance, highly invested in Office buildings in London and highly disinterested in Levelling Up the North. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 8:44:50 GMT
Listening to a phone in today refuker called in to say how do people know Farage's fantasy accounting wouldn't work. Oh I don't know how about basic arithmetic. Refuk a limited company for limited people. He was likely a graduate of the Liz Truss School of Economics and Unicorns. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 18, 2024 8:51:27 GMT
I find this hard to understand. We get a voter registration form every year (around October from memory) and duly fill it in and return it. Are there millions of people who keep moving about so they have to register at the last minute? I would imagine that in the case of the younger applications, a lot of it is due to moving house or similar since the last voter registration form came round. Paricularly for those of student age, they may be registered at their University (for the local elections) and then need to register at their parents house since most Universities will have broken up by July.
Naturally, no student would ever be so deceitful as to vote in both places - despite there being no mechanism to check whether they have done that. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 18, 2024 9:00:30 GMT
I would imagine that in the case of the younger applications, a lot of it is due to moving house or similar since the last voter registration form came round. Paricularly for those of student age, they may be registered at their University (for the local elections) and then need to register at their parents house since most Universities will have broken up by July.
Naturally, no student would ever be so deceitful as to vote in both places - despite there being no mechanism to check whether they have done that.There is no evidence to support dual voting by students, certainly not in numbers that would impact election results. This was a Tory press scare story after the 2017 GE, and nothing untoward was found in voting patterns. My daughter is only registered at home, mainly because she couldn't organise herself to register in Loughborough. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 18, 2024 9:07:55 GMT
Students can be simultaneously registered at their home and term time addresses, though they aren't supposed to vote in both for the same Parliament/Council.
Naturally, no student would ever be so deceitful as to vote in both places - despite there being no mechanism to check whether they have done that. There is no evidence to support dual voting by students, certainly not in numbers that would impact election results. This was a Tory press scare story after the 2017 GE, and nothing untoward was found in voting patterns. My daughter is only registered at home, mainly because she couldn't organise herself to register in Loughborough. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,390
|
Post by neilj on Jun 18, 2024 9:23:18 GMT
Of course it's not just students that can register to vote in two places, second home owners can also do the same. In fact they could have many homes and register to vote in each
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jun 18, 2024 9:26:08 GMT
This is interesting showing how quite large increases in NATO defence spending recently have gone under the radar. See especially graph 4. 23 NATO states now meet or exceed the 2% target. Pretendy international player Italy is surprise, surprise still languishing way below that level. Surprising and disappointing to see Canada in the same boat however, I would have expected them to hit at least 2%: www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/6/pdf/240617-def-exp-2024-en.pdf |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jun 18, 2024 9:32:19 GMT
There is no evidence to support dual voting by students, certainly not in numbers that would impact election results. This was a Tory press scare story after the 2017 GE, and nothing untoward was found in voting patterns. My daughter is only registered at home, mainly because she couldn't organise herself to register in Loughborough. Same with mine She is graduating (finance at Glasgow) on Friday, living in a flat in Glasgow, flying off on holiday on election day, registered at home here in Birnam soIi am going to need to drive her to the polling station, both of us vote and then drive her to the airport |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 9:37:42 GMT
“ London is dragging down Britain’s productivity growth as office staff continue to work from home, new figures show.
Productivity in the capital tumbled in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics, taking output per hour worked – a key tool to measure each employee’s efforts – to its lowest level since 2009.
London’s productivity dropped by 2.7pc between 2019 and 2022, the ONS said, with Wales the only other region to fall.
The strongest growth came in the North West of England, where productivity jumped by 7.9pc over the same period.
Dwindling productivity in the capital is a hangover from the pandemic, according to economists, as they said remote working has harmed growth.
Adrian Pabst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said: “There are very few jobs which can be done as well at home as they can be at the office.
“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out.
“There is not the same coordination, not the same interactions and people do not feel as motivated. There are all sorts of things that do not happen when you are in the office.”
London has been more affected by remote working than other parts of the country because it has a large proportion of office workers.””
Telegraph As expected from the Telegraph and the NIESR, this is looking at one very marginal metric and deciding it means something they wanted to be true is. "Regional" Productivity measurements are not a useful metric for what they are trying to claim. London isn't 'dragging down the rest of the country' because of out of office workers... Out of office workers have enabled productivity to be spread more around the country, and over-all improve. In Q1 2024, across the entire UK, output per hour worked increased by 1.7% above its pre-coronavirus level. That's only a problem if you happen to be, for instance, highly invested in Office buildings in London and highly disinterested in Levelling Up the North. Yes, the Telegraph aren’t the greatest fans of home working. The readership aren’t keen - all those retirees maybe get a bit jealous... (People don’t tend to point out Guardian bias tho’) |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Jun 18, 2024 9:40:09 GMT
I recall reading on the old UKPR that YouGov may have better reach to typical non-voters in its panel (being one of the first online-only pollsters). Does anyone know if that is/was true? And if in the years since does anyone know if other pollsters have improved their reach? I was with YouGov. I never left, but, they seem to have forgotten about me and it's a few years since I had a poll invite. I am also with "Y Live", formerly Populous. I have no idea which pollster these surverys end up with. Back in the day, I got into debt, now, thankfully paid off, and was scrabbling around for ways to make extra money...mostly online. There were survey sites, mostly product surveys. Waste of time. I had no interest in them, but, did them for a while for the cash (and got frozen out of most as they asked about stuff you needed cash for in the first place. Then there were TV surveys where you filled out what you watched on telly the previous days. All of the above, even when you didn't get frozen out of surveys, paid incredibly badly. Then there was political polling....these surveys are something that I'd do even if they didn't pay out. Y/Populus pays the best....still not great but, as said, I'd do them for nothing anyway. in my experience, you had to sign up for the panels. Ther were links to them in various "make money online" type stories. Once the link is followed and you sign up, you get regular surveys. As someone who spends a fair bit of time online, and regularly posts political stuff, I have to say that, apart from wanting to make money online, as I did/needed to do at the time, I can't se where they get their reach from.... |
|
|
|
Post by James E on Jun 18, 2024 9:40:49 GMT
This is interesting, some of the polling companies reallocate don't knows, which tends to favour the tories But there is now evidence when pressed more don't knows will break for Labour than the tories Survation Labour 22% Tories 14% Still undecided 43% x.com/TomHCalver/status/1802744645132132510There are remarkably similar figures to this in the most recent JL Partners poll. Asked of the Don't Knows which party they are most leaning towards voting for: Lab 23% Con 13% LD 10% Ref 10% Still Don't Know 36% Interesting to note that JLP's highly experimental methodology does not follow the logic of this, as it reduces Labour's lead by 5 points, and boosts Ref from 16% to 18%. |
|
