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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 22:27:39 GMT
Nice to read of the recent ban of the forum's bridge-dweller. Only took four years. Best of luck with the polling. We do actually analyse polls here, rather than engage in partisan team chanting, don't we?  The partisan stuff has become much more prominent in the last year or two. ☹ |
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Post by eor on Jun 17, 2024 22:31:22 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP.
As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet;
"It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?"
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 22:31:31 GMT
pjw1961 “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP. I challenge alec to be make an anagram out of that politician's name! " Is it Mat? I might have missed out a letter It is always possible that those are actually just the names of Jacob Rees-Mogg's children. I only just found this. This really is quite funny. Even funnier than my anagram that took me hours (that even Penny Mordaunt admitted had taken me hours and hours, and this was confirmed by independent members of the civil service). |
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Post by Rafwan on Jun 17, 2024 22:33:37 GMT
“Quite funny”
(Swoon …..!)
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 22:35:09 GMT
Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he himself means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP who favoured expansion of the EU. He was only allowed to visit Austria in the 1960s when he renounced his claim to the Austrian throne. www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/04/otto-von-habsburg-obituaryHis Dad once made my great Grandad the equivalent of a Duke in the Austro Hungarian empire (I still have his sealing ring) but that’s a story for another day. I think you have missed something in translation. He did that to lots of young boys. I hope you have washed the "sealing ring" thoroughly... |
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 22:38:16 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP. As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet; "It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?" One day the same thing will happen when you a get a leaflet from a fringe left wing party called "The Conservatives"... |
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 22:42:46 GMT
"Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings" - What like 1997? At the moment this appears to be on a greater scale than 1997. That year we had Goldsmith's Referendum party , but that was not eating into the core of the Tory vote in the way that Reform appears to now be doing. Labour did pick up quite a few seats from third place in 1997 despite the LDs then polling a respectable 16%/17% under Ashdown. Whilst the LDs will still benefit in a good few seats simply on account of the scale of the Tory collapse, I suspecting we will see more leapfrogging by Labour than took place in 1997. I did not expect this to happen - certainly not on this scale - but the evidence mounts with millions likely to have voted by the end of this week. I had my own experience of leapfrogging in 1995. I stood for our local council in a three seat ward, all of which were held by the LibDems. The Tories had come 4th, 5th and 6th in the previous election and we were nowhere. I agreed to stand as a paper candidate as I really didn't have the time to be a councillor - I was commuting up to London from Clacton every day for one thing. I thought I had no chance of getting in, especially as everyone seemed to be just voting for who seemed best positioned to beat the Tories that year. I did no canvassing, no leafleting and on election day itself I was up in London at work.
Imagine my surprise therefore when I beat one of the LibDems to get the third seat.......
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 22:44:35 GMT
According to wiki, Austria-Hungary was the last phase of the Habsburg Empire, and according to Google “Habsburgs were at one time or other rulers of what are now Spain and Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Bosnia and Croatia, the Czech Republic (previously Bohemia and Moravia), Slovakia and Slovenia, as well as parts of Italy, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Serbia, and Ukraine.” Adnittedly this is rather outside my comfort zone and am happy to have more info. on the matter. (Carswell did a degree in history incidentally, and there’s a chance they might have covered the Habsburgs) Actually wiki missed a few. At one time Hapsburg Spain included most of the “New World” and the Philippines. The original empire on which the “sun never set”. A fact worth knowing if you want to annoy some British nationalist who claims they were the first. Amusing even though saying my empire was bigger before yours is a bit of a stupid boast. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 22:45:03 GMT
Here's something I haven't looked at since the last election. With the deadline for voter registration coming up, how have the voter registrations been going? It's all there at www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performanceI'm not sure how much we can learn from this, or how it compares to previous General Elections, but here's some figures for voter registration since the election was announced. On the first day, the numbers registering went up from the background noise level of about 8,000 per day to a peak of over 100,000 for a couple of days. It then settled at around 50,000 per day until the last week which has seen almost 1,000,000 over the week, the peak being almost 1/3 million on 13th June. Not sure what happened that day, it's way above the number for any other day, so maybe there was a publicity push somewhere? In all, there have been about 2 million new registrations since Sunak's announcement. Let's hope they all vote. In approximate numbers, the breakdown of new registrations by age looks like this: Under 25: 531,000 25-34: 649,000 35-44: 364,000 45-54: 217,000 55-64: 184,000 65-75: 97,000 7+: 50,000 Of course it skews low, since older people will tend to already be registered. About 32,000,000 people voted in the last GE, so amounts to about 6% of the likely voting population. Maybe I'll try to dig back to see the equivalent numbers for 2019.
EDIT: it's much less than 2019 with almost 4 million new registrations, but perhaps lower partly because of the recent local/mayoral/etc elections, which generated a smaller burst of registrations in April.
I find this hard to understand. We get a voter registration form every year (around October from memory) and duly fill it in and return it. Are there millions of people who keep moving about so they have to register at the last minute? |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 17, 2024 22:48:30 GMT
I’ve been posting data about that, and the Telegraph graphics showing where the campaigning is happening, which supports your view. It also showed that Refuk are prioritising Labour seats for campaigning. If that is true, it is really bizarre. The last 4 YouGovs show RefUK taking an average of 32% of the Con2019 vote, and 3% of the Lab 2019 vote. And on the Leave/Remain axis, they are taking 35% of Leavers and 2% of Remainers. It depends what the goal is. If the goal is to win seats, then targeting areas where the chance of getting enough votes is, as you say, bizarre. On the other hand, if the goal is to take votes from previous Conservative voters, ensuring that they lose really badly, so that they don't even have the Pyrrhic victory of "We lost, but increased our votes from last time round" to fall back on, then it almost makes sense. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 22:50:31 GMT
Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Ah, I understand. So he was a well meaning thick person with no understanding of the realities of international trade, nor of basic economics? Yes. Nail. Head. |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 17, 2024 22:52:59 GMT
Election activity at this address.
1. Hand delivered SNP leaflet - day after election announced
2. SNP canvasser (last known canvassing in this wee town was 2014!)
3. My SNP garden posters up
4. Hand delivered SNP leaflet (4 page A3) today.
That's it. My current tally: 1. Hand delivered Labour leaflet - day after election announced. And that's all |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 22:58:25 GMT
“Boris Johnson is being drafted in by the Tories to play a more active role in the election campaign as the party seeks to counter the threat from Reform UK.
Tens of thousands of letters signed by the former prime minister are due to be delivered to voters later this week, The Telegraph can reveal, after the Conservatives warned that a vote for Reform risked putting Labour in power for “a generation”.
The direct mail drive urging people to vote Tory is Mr Johnson’s closest involvement yet in the Conservatives’ attempts to defy the polls.
Among those voters believed to have been targeted are wavering Tories who backed the party when Mr Johnson was leader but are now tempted by Reform.”
Telegraph
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 23:01:20 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP. As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet; "It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?" Yeah who are these guys? Received one today (haven't read it yet). |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:04:13 GMT
Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Instead of which we ended up as the corpse, drifting face down off Europe's western coast. You keep making unevidenced assertions like this, but assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/662692cd1cbbb3400ba7e601/business-and-trade-facts-and-figures.pdfOne quote: "Since the EU referendum, the UK economy has grown faster than Germany, Italy, and Japan" Brexit is far from the economic disaster that you and others keep going on about. If you have evidence to the contrary please post it. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:08:03 GMT
And thinking of electoral procedure, this will of course be the first general election and the first really mass vote to have the voter ID rules applied to it. I wonder that effect that will have in depressing turnout. "Data collected at polling station showed 0.25% of those who went to a polling station were not able to vote as a result of not being able to show ID," I heard a chap from the electoral commission on the radio today saying the a lot of those turned away came back later with the relevant id. |
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Post by eor on Jun 17, 2024 23:23:54 GMT
We had our first election leaflet today - from the SDP. As someone who just about remembers the Bootle by-election that prompted David Owen to finally give up, this is really quite surreal for me. Tho my other half (who is too young to remember them at all) was confused for a different reason after reading the leaflet; "It's like they're fascists but they think they're lefties?" Yeah who are these guys? Received one today (haven't read it yet). As I think was said on the previous thread, they're certainly nothing that the old SDP would recognise! We had a BNP candidate in my previous constituency in 2010 and this is frankly ticking a lot of the same boxes. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 17, 2024 23:27:18 GMT
Oddly, the first leaflet that arrived to our house (Liverpool) is from the Green Party. It is not particularly good.
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:32:50 GMT
Austria Hungary was a state or rather two states manacled ill elegantly together since the mid 1800s. In that sense it was not all that different to the UK of the time which of course contained Ireland as well as Scotland and Wales. The EU is an assortment of states who voluntarily pool some level of sovereignty. Bohemia or Croatia didn’t quite have that level of agency vis a vis Vienna. Is it hard to imagine if the boot had been on the other foot a situation where a Germany and Austria victorious in ww1 impose a settlement on the UK where Ireland or even Scotland are hived off? I suspect Carswell liked the superficially simple comparison but didn’t care for the details of either history or of the actual workings of the EU. According to wiki, Austria-Hungary was the last phase of the Habsburg Empire, and according to Google “Habsburgs were at one time or other rulers of what are now Spain and Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Bosnia and Croatia, the Czech Republic (previously Bohemia and Moravia), Slovakia and Slovenia, as well as parts of Italy, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Serbia, and Ukraine.” Adnittedly this is rather outside my comfort zone and am happy to have more info. on the matter. (Carswell did a degree in history incidentally, and there’s a chance they might have covered the Habsburgs) Most of those countries were also at one time or another ruled by tyrants such as Napoleon and Hitler. Guess who wasn't? Having invading armies rolling through your country on a frequent basis must give rise to a different mindset to a country that hasn't been invaded (except by parts of itself) for very nearly 1000 years. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:40:42 GMT
Ahem, 6 county championships and 6 one day titles between 1979 and 1992 suggests Essex were quite decent in that period. 2 more championships, the Bob Willis trophy and 6 more one day titles from 1997 to date. I refer you to Jen's last post. Or indeed most of her posts. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:43:57 GMT
Good point, Carfers. He's a bit of a whippersnapper compared to some of us if that user name reveals his birth year. I thought it referred to the year that Essex last had a decent cricket side. I must admit that I'm surprised, and rather offended too, that he doubted the accuracy of my account of my leafleting expedition earlier today. Well I was paying attention to it Batters - after the walking football incident, I take careful note in case there are more unexpected sources of injury you might flag up! (Because I’m a little bit younger than some, the board gives me a bit of advance warning of some things, blood pressure etc., for which I am grateful. And of course the infection-related stuff). Hope your knee is improving btw batty Alas I have to report that I was in the area today, and when I saw someone crawling along a driveway to deliver a Labour poster I couldn't help but notice someone (wasn't me guv, honest) stamp on the back of his knee. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 17, 2024 23:45:05 GMT
Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP who favoured expansion of the EU. He was only allowed to visit Austria in the 1960s when he renounced his claim to the Austrian throne. www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/04/otto-von-habsburg-obituaryHis Dad once made my great Grandad the equivalent of a Duke in the Austro Hungarian empire (I still have his sealing ring) but that’s a story for another day. Renowned for once, having been told there was an Austria/Hungary football match coming up, asking, “oh, yes, who are they playing?”. Nice one.  EDIT: Sorry for the many consecutive posts but I've been out playing chess and didn't get back till late. A lot of catching up to do. |
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Post by jen on Jun 18, 2024 0:01:02 GMT
I am going to laugh for an entire week. I suggest you start with the FT... |
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Post by jen on Jun 18, 2024 0:06:59 GMT
And thinking of electoral procedure, this will of course be the first general election and the first really mass vote to have the voter ID rules applied to it. I wonder that effect that will have in depressing turnout. "Data collected at polling station showed 0.25% of those who went to a polling station were not able to vote as a result of not being able to show ID," I heard a chap from the electoral commission on the radio today saying the a lot of those turned away came back later with the relevant id. Yes, but I'm sure you will agree, it does not take into account people who don't bother voting because of the ID requirement. What effect that might have on the result, I have no idea. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 0:07:22 GMT
“ London is dragging down Britain’s productivity growth as office staff continue to work from home, new figures show.
Productivity in the capital tumbled in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics, taking output per hour worked – a key tool to measure each employee’s efforts – to its lowest level since 2009.
London’s productivity dropped by 2.7pc between 2019 and 2022, the ONS said, with Wales the only other region to fall.
The strongest growth came in the North West of England, where productivity jumped by 7.9pc over the same period.
Dwindling productivity in the capital is a hangover from the pandemic, according to economists, as they said remote working has harmed growth.
Adrian Pabst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said: “There are very few jobs which can be done as well at home as they can be at the office.
“Working zero days from the office, which you can see in the Civil Service, is just not working out.
“There is not the same coordination, not the same interactions and people do not feel as motivated. There are all sorts of things that do not happen when you are in the office.”
London has been more affected by remote working than other parts of the country because it has a large proportion of office workers.””
Telegraph Attachments:
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Post by jen on Jun 18, 2024 0:11:45 GMT
I refer you to Jen's last post. Or indeed most of her posts. Haha! I refer you to a string of racist derogatory posts in your past. Let's face it, you are a lying traitor and an enemy of the people of these islands. Checkmate! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 0:41:26 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 18, 2024 0:49:15 GMT
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soph
New Member
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Post by soph on Jun 18, 2024 0:57:27 GMT
Thanks for the warm welcome everyone  Here in Cambridge I've only had one leaflet, from Labour. It's such a stark contrast to the vibrant campaigning of the local elections where we had leafleting and visits from all the major parties except Tory. You can barely tell there's a general election on here. Thinking back to 2019, it was rather similar though. I have some thoughts about Cambridge, and MRPs, but I'm digging into some more data first. Related to it, I recall reading on the old UKPR that YouGov may have better reach to typical non-voters in its panel (being one of the first online-only pollsters). Does anyone know if that is/was true? And if in the years since does anyone know if other pollsters have improved their reach? |
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Post by jen on Jun 18, 2024 1:02:56 GMT
If Adolf Hitler were here today, they'd send a limousine anyway... Joe Strummer, "White Man In Hammersmith Palais", The Clash, 1978. |
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