Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jun 17, 2024 19:13:09 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed! I do the same when you’re on a roll 😉 |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 19:14:02 GMT
Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Ah, I understand. So he was a well meaning thick person with no understanding of the realities of international trade, nor of basic economics? Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he himself means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation state. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 19:17:51 GMT
Skvelý výsledokI've decided to self-identify as a Slovak! It can be painful to follow England or Scotland at times, but spare a thought for Belgian supporters over the last 15 years. All those great players and in tournament football precious little to show for it.
1. Support you own team regardless.
2. In other games, support the underdog
Always admire the skills on display. |
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Post by lens on Jun 17, 2024 19:19:23 GMT
I know there are a few people on here interested in battery technology, and this report ay be of interest - www.ft.com/content/e33cb565-6d44-4f9a-9105-f3afc03aa732?sharetype=blockedIt look like a step change in small battery energy density, more than doubling current performance. It appears there are still doubts about whether this solid state innovation will be suitable for larger applications, like cars, but it's a step change in small device power storage, if true. That link is blocked for me, but I've read the story elsewhere and a note of caution. I've read "......the material for its small solid-state batteries had an estimated energy density of 1,000 Watt hours per liter, or Wh/l, which is......" So the improvement they are quoting is energy density **by VOLUME** rather than weight. Physically smaller batteries may indeed be a step forward for (say) things like hearing aids, but for (say) electric cars energy density **by WEIGHT** is of far more importance. Indeed, for electric cars, it's arguably COST per kWh that is of prime importance, far more so than energy density by volume or weight. It's also little use if any improvement in one metric goes along with lessening performance in other respects - such as lifespan. All that said, battery improvements ARE continually happening, and there's a lot of reasons for optimism, but I do stress caution about individual announcements. They too often are more inspired by corporate PR departments. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 19:21:24 GMT
Interestingly, Carswell’s experience of cuckoo politics, talking about why he didn’t mind dealing with Cameron:
“It’s always better to deal with a malleable Remainer than a pretend Eurosceptic like Liam Fox or David Davis. Old school Eurosceptics had spent decades experiencing defeat and retreat because they put their faith in pretend sceptics who would always end up taking us closer into the European project. It’s much better to have an open Remainer who you can reason with than a bogus sceptic.”
(At least I think it’s Carswell, the attributions seem a bit messed up)
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 19:22:42 GMT
I don't know about Scotland but in England from what I can see they're simply ABT. In my LD/Lab/Con toss up seat they recommend LD despite Lab being slightly (a point and a half) ahead in the latest MRP. I would have thought it would be clear they'd be unlikely to recommend an SNP vote as that is not useful in helping to dispose of the tory gvt at Westminster level which is what they're about surely. Not sure what the EU has got to do with it. It's just about giving the Tories the biggest whack in the UK overall. This will include balancing between LDs taking seats from tories in the South and Lab bolstering their majority at the expense of the SNP in Scotland.
Tactical voting is meant to achieve a purpose, and these sites try to bring about the purposes they want. They're not meant to be even-handed! |
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Post by peterbell on Jun 17, 2024 19:23:19 GMT
In load of old cobblers news "IFS says Reform UK's plans 'don't add up' and would cost more than it claims 'by tens of billions of pounds per year' The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK’s tax and spending plans and it says they “don’t add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year”. Here is a an excerpt from the analysis. Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year. It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits. This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year. Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives" Not to be outdone the Tories engaged in their own weapons grade bullshit. "A vote for Reform risks delivering an unaccountable Labour majority. That would hand Keir Starmer a blank cheque to raise your taxes, take no action on illegal immigration, and even rejoin the EU, with no way to stop him. Labour are already planning to lower the voting age to 16, and we can expect votes for migrants, EU citizens, and prisoners to follow. So a vote for Reform won’t mean five years of Labour, it would mean a generation. In its news release CCHQ provided no evidence to support these claims." Apparently the same risks of a large majority didn't apply for the last five years of clustershambling ineptitude. Pleased to say that Sky analysis of the reform contract is highlighting similar concerns to IFS. BBC also expressing concerns to a slightly lesser extent. Hopefully, voters will pick up on this if they watch either news channel. IMO, it is more important to restrict Reform seats even if it means Lab majority is cut by a few seats. I think this based on the long-term issues if Reform do well, even though I would like Con to lose as many seats as possible allowing LDs to become the opposition. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 19:27:39 GMT
Ah, I understand. So he was a well meaning thick person with no understanding of the realities of international trade, nor of basic economics? Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation state. |
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Post by James E on Jun 17, 2024 19:27:51 GMT
We have now had 7 polls since YouGov's one with Labour on 37%, so enough data to check the overall figures against the pre-election averages (using the unadjusted figures for JLP and MIC). Labour's losses have disappeared; this means that they are now polling at the same level as their Jan-May average, as opposed to 1-2 points above at the start of the campaign, or around 2 points below around a week ago. Overall average net movements per the most recent Delta, R&W, MiC, JLP, Opinium, Savanta and Techne, compared to the same pollsters' 20-week pre-election figures are:
Lab +0.2%
Con -4.8%
LD +1.0%
Ref +4.5%
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 19:30:22 GMT
Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation state.Maybe not just the nation state then. (Unless… it’s possible to have a nation comprised of other nations?) |
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Post by alec on Jun 17, 2024 19:41:02 GMT
Not sure if this was referenced in the discussion over the BBC bias allegations -
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 19:46:27 GMT
Ah, I understand. So he was a well meaning thick person with no understanding of the realities of international trade, nor of basic economics? Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he himself means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP who favoured expansion of the EU. He was only allowed to visit Austria in the 1960s when he renounced his claim to the Austrian throne. www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/04/otto-von-habsburg-obituaryHis Dad once made my great Grandad the equivalent of a Duke in the Austro Hungarian empire (I still have his sealing ring) but that’s a story for another day. |
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Post by johntel on Jun 17, 2024 19:49:45 GMT
Not sure if this was referenced in the discussion over the BBC bias allegations - Doh, that was what started the whole discussion alec I'm surprised that a Prof at my two universities didn't scrutinise the source a bit more closely. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 17, 2024 19:59:08 GMT
We have now had 7 polls since YouGov's one with Labour on 37%, so enough data to check the overall figures against the pre-election averages (using the unadjusted figures for JLP and MIC). Labour's losses have disappeared; this means that they are now polling at the same level as their Jan-May average, as opposed to 1-2 points above at the start of the campaign, or around 2 points below around a week ago. Overall average net movements per the most recent Delta, R&W, MiC, JLP, Opinium, Savanta and Techne, compared to the same pollsters' 20-week pre-election figures are: Lab +0.2% Con -4.8% LD +1.0% Ref +4.5% That YouGov poll was Labour's "Wobbly Thursday". Electoral campaign legend has it that all parties that go on to win comfortably always have a day when self-doubt creeps in. A rogue poll is often the cause. Does anybody remember the Guardian headline during the 2015 election which highlighted a couple of favourable polls for Labour? "The Day the Polls Changed", screamed the frontpage headline. Labourites on the old UKPR site got momentarily excited. Until the next clutch of polls emerged. Cameron moved into Downing Street a week or so later with a surprise overall majority. pjw1961 had a Wobbly Thursday last week. Keep the faith my tribal partisans, party hacks, activistas and ever loyal cheerleaders. |
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 20:14:57 GMT
Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he himself means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation On a less personal note, the Hapsburg empire, rather like the Ottoman Empire, was held together by two things. A figurehead (usually by genetic inheritance) and a religion. The figurehead was also head of the religion (or in the case of the Hapsburgs, the military arm of Catholicism). Lots of reasons these empires fell of course, but I think one was that the rise of nation “states” based on shared language and “race” trumped religion as an identity, leading to less obeisance to the nominal Head of the Religion. What about the EU? No Sultan or Holy Roman Emperor of course, but what else holds it together? A shared set of political social values? But Poland and Hungary were able to largely ignore the EU’s social norms. I suspect Tony Blair makes the best case. You’ve got to be in one of the big teams to survive (or at least thrive). It’s all about power. youtu.be/qjeJUH7dmo8?si=ZRQ94BQzl5KS-YV2In that sense I think seeing the EU as the successor to the Holy Roman Empire makes some sense. But the empire lasted a long time (longer than the British empire). The analogy of imminent decline of its spiritual successor - the EU - fails of course as no one thought following us Brits out of the club was a sensible thing to do at this moment in history. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 17, 2024 20:15:04 GMT
Thanks. At last someone has produced some research. I have not got time to read it now but you won't mind if I come back to it later. This is the list of the most appearances of non politicians. It speaks for itself I think. Name Appearances Publication Isabel Oakeshott 13 Various (Spectator, Daily Mail, GB News, Talk TV) Julia Hartley-Brewer 13 Various (Spectator, Telegraph, Talk Radio/Talk TV) Kate Andrews 12 IEA/Spectator Tim Stanley 12 Telegraph/Spectator Camilla Tominey 10 Express/Telegraph/Spectator Anne McElvoy 8 Economist/Politico Theo Paphitis 8 N/A businessman Fraser Nelson 7 Spectator/Telegraph Melanie Phillips 7 The Times Merryn Somerset Webb 7 Money Week Peter Hitchens 7 Mail on Sunday/Spectator Piers Morgan 7 (Various ITV, Talk TV, Daily Mail) Zanny Minton Beddoes 7 The Economist Get the dataCreated with Datawrapper Thanks Babs. I posted a number of times about the anti-Tory comments on this site as I was irritated by the endless succession of one-off, contextless, hyper-scandalized, subjective responses to a particular BBC political item. I am happy this has stimulated a discussion of evidence re QT. Evidence that is being debated. Fine. We now hv a debate not a one-sided barrage. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 20:19:45 GMT
We have now had 7 polls since YouGov's one with Labour on 37%, so enough data to check the overall figures against the pre-election averages (using the unadjusted figures for JLP and MIC). Labour's losses have disappeared; this means that they are now polling at the same level as their Jan-May average, as opposed to 1-2 points above at the start of the campaign, or around 2 points below around a week ago. Overall average net movements per the most recent Delta, R&W, MiC, JLP, Opinium, Savanta and Techne, compared to the same pollsters' 20-week pre-election figures are: Lab +0.2% Con -4.8% LD +1.0% Ref +4.5% That YouGov poll was Labour's "Wobbly Thursday". Electoral campaign legend has it that all parties that go on to win comfortably always have a day when self-doubt creeps in. A rogue poll is often the cause. Does anybody remember the Guardian headline during the 2015 election which highlighted a couple of favourable polls for Labour? "The Day the Polls Changed", screamed the frontpage headline. Labourites on the old UKPR site got momentarily excited. Until the next clutch of polls emerged. Cameron moved into Downing Street a week or so later with a surprise overall majority. pjw1961 had a Wobbly Thursday last week. Keep the faith my tribal partisans, party hacks, activistas and ever loyal cheerleaders. All I said was no more of this Labour VI going down business, and the polling gods duly heard me and stopped messing about.  Anyway, another 73 houses leafleted this evening, so that'll stop the rot. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 20:21:54 GMT
Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP. I challenge alec to be make an anagram out of that politician's name! |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 20:22:09 GMT
Carswell considered the EU as “essentially Habsburg in origin”. I’m not sure exactly what he himself means by this, but others who have commented on similarities between the Habsburg Empire and the EU, Kind of see the EU as a doomed Empire much as the Habsburg Austrian-Hungarian empire was doomed. They may tend to see all empires as being doomed, and prefer the nation state instead. People who like supranational organisations may feel the opposite, they don’t necessarily care for the nation Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP who favoured expansion of the EU. He was only allowed to visit Austria in the 1960s when he renounced his claim to the Austrian throne. www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/04/otto-von-habsburg-obituaryHis Dad once made my great Grandad the equivalent of a Duke in the Austro Hungarian empire (I still have his sealing ring) but that’s a story for another day. Austria Hungary was a state or rather two states manacled ill elegantly together since the mid 1800s. In that sense it was not all that different to the UK of the time which of course contained Ireland as well as Scotland and Wales. The EU is an assortment of states who voluntarily pool some level of sovereignty. Bohemia or Croatia didn’t quite have that level of agency vis a vis Vienna. Is it hard to imagine if the boot had been on the other foot a situation where a Germany and Austria victorious in ww1 impose a settlement on the UK where Ireland or even Scotland are hived off? I suspect Carswell liked the superficially simple comparison but didn’t care for the details of either history or of the actual workings of the EU. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 17, 2024 20:24:46 GMT
Another truck load of somewhat verbose anti-BBC comments his morning from several posters. My previous pleas for a more balanced and context-bound approach to BBC's election and political coverage have fallen on deaf ears. Thanks. More generalized evidence. Fine. But we need a context. The other broadcasters are also over-publicising Farage?? If they are, and we dont know, then the BBC is not uniquely biased, but is in line with Sky, ITN etc and other reputable broadcasters. Unless of course you believe the BBC shud be held to a higher standard than other broadcasters. In which case that idealized standard has to be defined. Data referring solely to the BBC do not really cut it? They open a debate: they don't resolve it |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 20:26:19 GMT
Thanks. More generalized evidence. Fine. But we need a context. The other broadcasters are also over-publicising Farage?? If they are, and we dont know, then the BBC is not uniquely biased, but is in line with Sky, ITN etc. Unless of course you believe the BBC shud be held to a higher standard than other broadcasters. In which case that idealized standard has to be defined. Data referring solely to the BBC do not really cut it? “Unless of course you believe the BBC shud be held to a higher standard than other broadcasters” - Licence fee. Public service remit. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 20:30:03 GMT
On a less personal note, the Hapsburg empire, rather like the Ottoman Empire, was held together by two things. A figurehead (usually by genetic inheritance) and a religion. The figurehead was also head of the religion (or in the case of the Hapsburgs, the military arm of Catholicism). Lots of reasons these empires fell of course, but I think one was that the rise of nation “states” based on shared language and “race” trumped religion as an identity, leading to less obeisance to the nominal Head of the Religion. What about the EU? No Sultan or Holy Roman Emperor of course, but what else holds it together? A shared set of political social values? But Poland and Hungary were able to largely ignore the EU’s social norms. I suspect Tony Blair makes the best case. You’ve got to be in one of the big teams to survive (or at least thrive). It’s all about power. youtu.be/qjeJUH7dmo8?si=ZRQ94BQzl5KS-YV2In that sense I think seeing the EU as the successor to the Holy Roman Empire makes some sense. But the empire lasted a long time (longer than the British empire). The analogy of imminent decline of its spiritual successor - the EU - fails of course as no one thought following us Brits out of the club was a sensible thing to do at this moment in history. “You’ve got to be in one of the big teams to survive (or at least thrive). It’s all about power” - The Netherlands seem to do pretty well and I don’t hear much complaining from Ireland. In fact the EU has their back in brexit controversies with the UK. It magnifies power for small countries. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 17, 2024 20:51:29 GMT
That YouGov poll was Labour's "Wobbly Thursday". Electoral campaign legend has it that all parties that go on to win comfortably always have a day when self-doubt creeps in. A rogue poll is often the cause. Does anybody remember the Guardian headline during the 2015 election which highlighted a couple of favourable polls for Labour? "The Day the Polls Changed", screamed the frontpage headline. Labourites on the old UKPR site got momentarily excited. Until the next clutch of polls emerged. Cameron moved into Downing Street a week or so later with a surprise overall majority. pjw1961 had a Wobbly Thursday last week. Keep the faith my tribal partisans, party hacks, activistas and ever loyal cheerleaders. All I said was no more of this Labour VI going down business, and the polling gods duly heard me and stopped messing about. Anyway, another 73 houses leafleted this evening, so that'll stop the rot. 73??? I delivered 421 leaflets this afternoon whilst incapacitated by both a dodgy knee and copiously bleeding left hand, two fingers of which has been snapped clean off by a particularly awkward letter box at Number 73 Acacia Gardens. I completed the last ten houses whilst crawling on all fours, the remaining leaflets secured in my slobbering mouth. The very last house I arrived at I delivered the rather damp and limp leaflet by inserting it, directly by mouth, whilst lying prone on the doorstep. They had one of those bloody bottom of the door letter flaps Rather embarrassingly, the householder opened the door while I was doing so. She was initially shocked and then rather impressed with my obvious devotion to the Labour cause. 73 leaflets? You don't know when you were born. 🤔😆 |
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Post by mark61 on Jun 17, 2024 20:54:31 GMT
Not sure if this was referenced in the discussion over the BBC bias allegations - This is in my view an insidious example of Political bias, on QT the viewers take the Politicians with a pinch of salt often they cancel each other out, whereas the average viewer not perhaps as engaged as those on here might not know that someone from the IEA is in fact someone from the right or far right, they have a patina of independence Politicians on the programme don't enjoy. If it was a balanced panel, People like Owen Jones, Ash Sarkar, George Monbiot and Aaron Bastani, should be booked as often as Isabel Oakshot, Julia Hartley Brewer, Melanie Phillips etc. The fact that these right wing pundits appear about 10 times more often is a very clever way of achieving a right wing bias on a Flagship BBC Political Programme. This is the list of the most appearances of non politicians. It speaks for itself I think. Name Appearances Publication Isabel Oakeshott 13 Various (Spectator, Daily Mail, GB News, Talk TV) Julia Hartley-Brewer 13 Various (Spectator, Telegraph, Talk Radio/Talk TV) Kate Andrews 12 IEA/Spectator Tim Stanley 12 Telegraph/Spectator Camilla Tominey 10 Express/Telegraph/Spectator Anne McElvoy 8 Economist/Politico Theo Paphitis 8 N/A businessman Fraser Nelson 7 Spectator/Telegraph Melanie Phillips 7 The Times Merryn Somerset Webb 7 Money Week Peter Hitchens 7 Mail on Sunday/Spectator Piers Morgan 7 (Various ITV, Talk TV, Daily Mail) Zanny Minton Beddoes 7 The Economist Get the dataCreated with Datawrapper Thanks Babs. I posted a number of times about the anti-Tory comments on this site as I was irritated by the endless succession of one-off, contextless, hyper-scandalized, subjective responses to a particular BBC political item. I am happy this has stimulated a discussion of evidence re QT. Evidence that is being debated. Fine. We now hv a debate not a one-sided barrage. |
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 20:57:21 GMT
If these polls are correct, Labour is poised to win many seats from 3rd place - and 4th place in Scotland - regardless of what tactical voting websites are saying. Only the more politically aware are likely to be tuned into the idea of tactical voting, and the much higher turnout we see at a GE compared with local elections and parliamentary by elections is likely to overwhelmingly consist of people who go along with the tide. Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings, but that does not seem to be where we are now. I don't know if you're right about Scotland. It's almost as if it's a different country and you know nothing about it... |
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Post by peterbell on Jun 17, 2024 20:57:43 GMT
I would just like to say what an excellent day we have had on UKPR2 with a significant number of very good posts. Of course the polls issued today have been a big help in my enjoyment.
I would also like to congratulate Jen re her chioce of language and some very good comments. I have even given her several likes which I refuse to do when she uses the F word.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 21:00:43 GMT
Well he has a point. “Franz Joseph Otto Robert Maria Anton Karl Max Heinrich Sixtus Xavier Felix Renatus Ludwig Gaetan Pius Ignatius von Habsburg” to give him his full name was both the heir to the Hapsburg throne and a prominent MEP. I challenge alec to be make an anagram out of that politician's name! an anagram of “that politician's name” is… “mean this ain’t topical” |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 21:03:29 GMT
I would just like to say what an excellent day we have had on UKPR2 with a significant number of very good posts. Of course the polls issued today have been a big help in my enjoyment. I would also like to congratulate Jen re her chioce of language and some very good comments. I have even given her several likes which I refuse to do when she uses the F word. Farage? |
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 21:06:16 GMT
On a less personal note, the Hapsburg empire, rather like the Ottoman Empire, was held together by two things. A figurehead (usually by genetic inheritance) and a religion. The figurehead was also head of the religion (or in the case of the Hapsburgs, the military arm of Catholicism). Lots of reasons these empires fell of course, but I think one was that the rise of nation “states” based on shared language and “race” trumped religion as an identity, leading to less obeisance to the nominal Head of the Religion. What about the EU? No Sultan or Holy Roman Emperor of course, but what else holds it together? A shared set of political social values? But Poland and Hungary were able to largely ignore the EU’s social norms. I suspect Tony Blair makes the best case. You’ve got to be in one of the big teams to survive (or at least thrive). It’s all about power. youtu.be/qjeJUH7dmo8?si=ZRQ94BQzl5KS-YV2In that sense I think seeing the EU as the successor to the Holy Roman Empire makes some sense. But the empire lasted a long time (longer than the British empire). The analogy of imminent decline of its spiritual successor - the EU - fails of course as no one thought following us Brits out of the club was a sensible thing to do at this moment in history. “You’ve got to be in one of the big teams to survive (or at least thrive). It’s all about power” - The Netherlands seem to do pretty well and I don’t hear much complaining from Ireland. In fact the EU has their back in brexit controversies with the UK. It magnifies power for small countries. I think that’s the point I was making. You get shared power as the reward of shared sovereignty. |
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Post by eor on Jun 17, 2024 21:21:49 GMT
Here's something I haven't looked at since the last election. With the deadline for voter registration coming up, how have the voter registrations been going? It's all there at www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performanceI'm not sure how much we can learn from this, or how it compares to previous General Elections, but here's some figures for voter registration since the election was announced. On the first day, the numbers registering went up from the background noise level of about 8,000 per day to a peak of over 100,000 for a couple of days. It then settled at around 50,000 per day until the last week which has seen almost 1,000,000 over the week, the peak being almost 1/3 million on 13th June. Not sure what happened that day, it's way above the number for any other day, so maybe there was a publicity push somewhere? In all, there have been about 2 million new registrations since Sunak's announcement. Let's hope they all vote. In approximate numbers, the breakdown of new registrations by age looks like this: Under 25: 531,000 25-34: 649,000 35-44: 364,000 45-54: 217,000 55-64: 184,000 65-75: 97,000 7+: 50,000 Of course it skews low, since older people will tend to already be registered. About 32,000,000 people voted in the last GE, so amounts to about 6% of the likely voting population. Maybe I'll try to dig back to see the equivalent numbers for 2019.
EDIT: it's much less than 2019 with almost 4 million new registrations, but perhaps lower partly because of the recent local/mayoral/etc elections, which generated a smaller burst of registrations in April.
Does the same caveat apply as surfaced in (I think) 2019, that the numbers were for new applications rather than new registrations? ie that anyone who was already registered who either updated some aspect of their details (or just couldn't remember if/where they were registered and put their details in again to make sure) all got counted as "new"? |
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