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Post by bardin1 on Jun 17, 2024 16:59:43 GMT
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Post by James E on Jun 17, 2024 17:24:30 GMT
johntel "... So the headline could equally have been "BBC Question Time: analysis of guests over nine years suggests an overuse of LABOUR and GREEN voices".
It would have been much more revealing to list the TOTAL number of appearances by people of each political allegiance, including both politicians and non-politicians." Isn't it the BBC's normal practice to invite One Conservative, One Labour, One other party (LD/SNP/PC Green) and one 'other'. If that's so then the overall Con and Lab numbers will be the same. So it's really the choice of the '4th Panellist' which is an issue to address here (as well as perhaps the 'other party' one). [EDIT 20:50 - there is more complete data on Question Time panellists here: theconversation.com/bbc-question-time-analysis-of-guests-over-nine-years-suggests-an-overuse-of-rightwing-voices-232315?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
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Post by alhenry47 on Jun 17, 2024 17:41:22 GMT
Dogs noses ?
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 17, 2024 17:49:41 GMT
Here's something I haven't looked at since the last election. With the deadline for voter registration coming up, how have the voter registrations been going? It's all there at www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performanceI'm not sure how much we can learn from this, or how it compares to previous General Elections, but here's some figures for voter registration since the election was announced. On the first day, the numbers registering went up from the background noise level of about 8,000 per day to a peak of over 100,000 for a couple of days. It then settled at around 50,000 per day until the last week which has seen almost 1,000,000 over the week, the peak being almost 1/3 million on 13th June. Not sure what happened that day, it's way above the number for any other day, so maybe there was a publicity push somewhere? In all, there have been about 2 million new registrations since Sunak's announcement. Let's hope they all vote. In approximate numbers, the breakdown of new registrations by age looks like this: Under 25: 531,000 25-34: 649,000 35-44: 364,000 45-54: 217,000 55-64: 184,000 65-75: 97,000 7+: 50,000 Of course it skews low, since older people will tend to already be registered. About 32,000,000 people voted in the last GE, so amounts to about 6% of the likely voting population. Maybe I'll try to dig back to see the equivalent numbers for 2019.
EDIT: it's much less than 2019 with almost 4 million new registrations, but perhaps lower partly because of the recent local/mayoral/etc elections, which generated a smaller burst of registrations in April.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 17:57:00 GMT
oldnat I was just about to post this from the Get Voting website: "In seats that are being defended by an SNP incumbent, or where 2019 General Election notional winners are the SNP, and there is no possibility of the Conservatives winning the seat, we will make a tactical voting recommendation for Scottish Labour to ensure the Scotland’s views are represented on both the next (likely) UK Government’s benches, as well as the opposition benches." So essentially Best for Brutain is a pro Labour organisation in Scotland.
Indeed. Interesting group of people.
One worked for a Labour MP for a couple of years, one has articles on the Guardian, and one was ...well you're all clever people. Do your own searches, and form your own conclusions. A wonderful mix of Labour politics and Tory financial mismanagement. All we need is an illegal war and it'll be New Labour once again.
Consider Edinburgh West, 2019:
Lib 21,766 39.9% SNP 17,997 33.0% Con 9,283 17.0% Lab 4,460 8.2%
And their view: "The latest polling and MRP analysis shows they are the best placed party to beat the Conservatives here."
But in reality, the Con vote is nowhere in that seat, and even combined, Con and Lab can't beat the Lib Dems. The more likely scenario is half of Con shifting to Ref, Lab and Lib in different ratios, and maybe a little moving to SNP, if there are any Indy folk still to shift. The pro-Lab folk tend to be pro-Union too, even when they can't or won't say why. Because the alternative is the loss of one of their little resource mines, and their deterrent base.
The sensible, ABT advice would be "This won't be a Tory seat, so vote according to your own inclinations."
That at least, would be an honest approach, if their intentions were ABT, but they're not. If their strategy was to pick the highest party from each past election, that is best placed to beat the Tories, there would be a raft of SNP recommendations. They are pro-Lab, which translates to anti-Indy, but with a whisper (for now). Just another Labour media tool.
And the very sensible advice if truly pro-EU, would be to sing the praises of the one party with elected MPs that keeps calling for rejoining the EU, rather than one of the parties that insisted a vote Naw was a vote to secure Scotland's place in the EU. Better Together. 
Nice to read of the recent ban of the forum's bridge-dweller. Only took four years. Best of luck with the polling. We do actually analyse polls here, rather than engage in partisan team chanting, don't we?  I don't know about Scotland but in England from what I can see they're simply ABT. In my LD/Lab/Con toss up seat they recommend LD despite Lab being slightly (a point and a half) ahead in the latest MRP. I would have thought it would be clear they'd be unlikely to recommend an SNP vote as that is not useful in helping to dispose of the tory gvt at Westminster level which is what they're about surely. Not sure what the EU has got to do with it. It's just about giving the Tories the biggest whack in the UK overall. This will include balancing between LDs taking seats from tories in the South and Lab bolstering their majority at the expense of the SNP in Scotland. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 17:57:01 GMT
I hate to admit this but I did know Carswell quite well. I was former Labour M.P. Ivan Henderson's agent in the 2010 GE. I have to say, Carswell was quite personable. He even offered me a free fish & chip supper once - which I declined! And you are right that he was not ant-immigration, nor was he a racist. I attended one of his meetings during the campaign. Afterwards a lady came up to him and said she was going to vote for him because we needed to keep "all those immigrants" out. Now, he could have taken the easy way out and accepted her vote, but he didn't and told her that he was not anti-immigrant and that we needed immigration to keep the country going. He was quite forceful about expressing his views to her. He did have a big falling out with Farage over his stance on this. Thanks for that! So why did he oppose EU membership? Was he ignorant of the way the EU works? Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. |
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johntel
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Post by johntel on Jun 17, 2024 17:57:18 GMT
johntel "... So the headline could equally have been "BBC Question Time: analysis of guests over nine years suggests an overuse of LABOUR and GREEN voices".
It would have been much more revealing to list the TOTAL number of appearances by people of each political allegiance, including both politicians and non-politicians." Isn't it the BBC's normal practice to invite One Conservative, One Labour, One other party (LD/SNP/PC Green) and one 'other'. If that's so then the overall Con and Lab numbers will be the same. So it's really the choice of the '4th Panellist' which is an issue to address here (as well as perhaps the 'other party' one). Yes I agree, we don't know the numbers because they haven't published the complete dataset, just enough to support their headline. Maybe there were a large number of left-wing comedians or pop stars who just appeared a few times each - we just don't know. Edit - even if you count the right-wing journalists appearances as Conservative, there are still more Labour appearances than Conservative in the sub-set of data that is published. Personally I think that the BBC bends over backwards to try to be even-handed, They are never going to please everyone. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 17:57:50 GMT
Skvelý výsledok
I've decided to self-identify as a Slovak!
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 18:00:37 GMT
Today, I have had three different RUK Ltd leaflets put through my door at different times of the day. I wonder how much Reform's national allowance on spending is being morphed into their allowed spending in one constituency. Might be interesting to see their spend in Clacton after the election....
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 18:04:57 GMT
Thanks for that! So why did he oppose EU membership? Was he ignorant of the way the EU works? Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Instead of which we ended up as the corpse, drifting face down off Europe's western coast. |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jun 17, 2024 18:07:21 GMT
Another truck load of somewhat verbose anti-BBC comments his morning from several posters. My previous pleas for a more balanced and context-bound approach to BBC's election and political coverage have fallen on deaf ears. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 18:08:37 GMT
Skvelý výsledokI've decided to self-identify as a Slovak! It can be painful to follow England or Scotland at times, but spare a thought for Belgian supporters over the last 15 years. All those great players and in tournament football precious little to show for it. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 18:10:58 GMT
And thinking of electoral procedure, this will of course be the first general election and the first really mass vote to have the voter ID rules applied to it. I wonder that effect that will have in depressing turnout. |
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Post by James E on Jun 17, 2024 18:12:04 GMT
Redfield Wilton 10,000 mega poll Labour leads by 25%. Tied-lowest Conservative % (worse than Truss). Highest Reform %. 🇬🇧 Westminster VI (14/6-17/6): Labour 43% (+1) Reform UK 18% (+1) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 12/6-13/6 Not for the first time, R&W's detailed figures show the Conservatives' strongest 'region' is now Wales (where they have 24% support) and their second strongest, London (23%). R&W's Con to Lab Swings by region are: East 28% South East 26% West Midlands 26% East Midlands 24% South West 21% North East 15% Yorks & H 13% North West 12% Wales 4% London 3% Scotland shows a 20% SNP to Lab swing (on a sample of 420), and note that the Welsh sample is only 265. Most regions are 500-1200. |
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 18:13:45 GMT
Delta
Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
Con 19% (-2)
Lab 46% (-)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Reform 16% (+4)
SNP 2% (-2)
Green 5% (-)
Other 1% (-1)
Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
Sample: 1,383 GB adults
(Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 18:20:07 GMT
Thanks for that! So why did he oppose EU membership? Was he ignorant of the way the EU works? Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Ah. If I’d met him, I could have told him how annoyed my mainland European colleagues were that the UK was taking a larger chunk of the science research budget compared to what we put in. |
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Post by nickpoole on Jun 17, 2024 18:21:34 GMT
Delta Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024) oh dear. Ask not for whom the bell tolls... |
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Post by jayblanc on Jun 17, 2024 18:27:16 GMT
It might be considered pro-Labour outwith Scotland. Its recommendation for Bristol Central is Labour, notwithstanding there being no risk of the Conservatives winning it, which will be controversial with one or two correspondents on here. I'm not a fan of these tactical voting websites, although I will concede the parties also lie a lot which doesn't help voters. I am currently in Derbyshire Dales with my lovely very Green daughter, she is voting Labour here, for tactical reasons, but if I tell her this nugget of information I reckon she would switch to voting for her beliefs. Anyone want to vote switch with her? Just a gentle reminder that offering to alter your or someone else's vote in exchange for any consideration, including tactical vote arrangements, is Illegal. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 18:30:31 GMT
Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Ah. If I’d met him, I could have told him how annoyed my mainland European colleagues were that the UK was taking a larger chunk of the science research budget compared to what we put in. Over the course of decades co-operating with the right wing press on anti EU (and lets face it anti-European) stories they came to believe their own propaganda. The 'sclerotic' EU line was what they told the rational side of their brains but the real impetus was more atavistic. Their innate sense of English superiority and exceptionalism was offended by co-operating as equals with the lesser mortals of the continent. The losers of ww2 as they no doubt saw them. |
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 18:36:03 GMT
Thanks for that! So why did he oppose EU membership? Was he ignorant of the way the EU works? Carswell's opposition to the EU was basically an economic one. He thought we would do better on our own instead of being, as he said once, "shackled to a corpse". He was also of the £350,000,000 that could be given to the NHS school of thought; that we paid more into the EU than we got out of it. Ah, I understand. So he was a well meaning thick person with no understanding of the realities of international trade, nor of basic economics? |
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Post by shevii on Jun 17, 2024 18:37:20 GMT
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 18:37:46 GMT
Redfield Wilton 10,000 mega poll Labour leads by 25%. Tied-lowest Conservative % (worse than Truss). Highest Reform %. 🇬🇧 Westminster VI (14/6-17/6): Labour 43% (+1) Reform UK 18% (+1) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 12/6-13/6 Not for the first time, R&W's detailed figures show the Conservatives' strongest 'region' is now Wales (where they have 24% support) and their second strongest, London (23%). R&W's Con to Lab Swings by region are: East 28% South East 26% West Midlands 26% East Midlands 24% South West 21% North East 15% Yorks & H 13% North West 12% Wales 4% London 3% Scotland shows a 20% SNP to Lab swing (on a sample of 420), and note that the Welsh sample is only 265. Most regions are 500-1200. Were those regional breakdowns to prove accurate, IDS might yet survive in Chingford & Woodford Green as a result of Shaheen's candidature. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jun 17, 2024 18:39:47 GMT
I don't know about Scotland but in England from what I can see they're simply ABT. In my LD/Lab/Con toss up seat they recommend LD despite Lab being slightly (a point and a half) ahead in the latest MRP. I would have thought it would be clear they'd be unlikely to recommend an SNP vote as that is not useful in helping to dispose of the tory gvt at Westminster level which is what they're about surely. Not sure what the EU has got to do with it. It's just about giving the Tories the biggest whack in the UK overall. This will include balancing between LDs taking seats from tories in the South and Lab bolstering their majority at the expense of the SNP in Scotland. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jun 17, 2024 18:40:18 GMT
I am currently in Derbyshire Dales with my lovely very Green daughter, she is voting Labour here, for tactical reasons, but if I tell her this nugget of information I reckon she would switch to voting for her beliefs. Anyone want to vote switch with her? Just a gentle reminder that offering to alter your or someone else's vote in exchange for any consideration, including tactical vote arrangements, is Illegal. Not according to the swap my vote website. wb61 do you know? |
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Post by jayblanc on Jun 17, 2024 18:40:56 GMT
Delta Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024) This puts every reputable polling firm predicting a complete rout where the range of probable outcomes include a significant band where the Conservative party receive fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats. Interestingly, getting the second highest number of seats doesn't automatically mean Ed Davey would become Leader of the Opposition. The Loyal Opposition is identified by consensus and convention, and it's up to the Speaker of the House to recognise someone as Leader of the Opposition. The Conservatives could make a fair argument if they come second in vote share that they represent opposition, but I'm not sure how much credit that would be given by the Speaker. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 17, 2024 18:48:24 GMT
This is the list of the most appearances of non politicians. It speaks for itself I think. Name Appearances Publication ... Just for balance, here is the list of the top 12 politicians who appeared on Question Time in the period, from the same research. Does it also speak for itself? Most frequent appearances on Question Time (2014-2023) Emily Thornberry Labour politician 24 Lisa Nandy Labour politician 22 Nadhim Zahawi Conservative politician 14 Andy Burnham Labour politician 13 Caroline Lucas Green politician 13Isabel Oakeshott Journalist 13 James Cleverly Conservative politician 13 Julia Hartley-Brewer Journalist 13 Jon Ashworth Labour politician 12 Kate Andrews Journalist/campaigner 12 Tim Stanley Journalist 12 Diane Abbott Labour politician 11 ... Nigel Farage (UKIP) 10So the headline could equally have been "BBC Question Time: analysis of guests over nine years suggests an overuse of LABOUR and GREEN voices". It would have been much more revealing to list the TOTAL number of appearances by people of each political allegiance, including both politicians and non-politicians. I think the point is that government politicians won't have anything interesting to say because they are constrained by the party line. Whereas independent right wing journalists and think tankers can actively engage. This is after all entertainment, albeit informative entertainment. For the same reason you can expect Conservative politicians and left wing journalists and think tankers to dominate after the election. |
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 18:50:58 GMT
If these polls are correct, Labour is poised to win many seats from 3rd place - and 4th place in Scotland - regardless of what tactical voting websites are saying. Only the more politically aware are likely to be tuned into the idea of tactical voting, and the much higher turnout we see at a GE compared with local elections and parliamentary by elections is likely to overwhelmingly consist of people who go along with the tide. Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings, but that does not seem to be where we are now.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 18:53:32 GMT
If these polls are correct, Labour is poised to win many seats from 3rd place - and 4th place in Scotland - regardless of what tactical voting websites are saying. Only the more politically aware are likely to be tuned into the idea of tactical voting, and the much higher turnout we see at a GE compared with local elections and parliamentary by elections is likely to overwhelmingly consist of people who go along with the tide. Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings, but that does not seem to be where we are now. "Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings" - What like 1997? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 17, 2024 18:55:17 GMT
Delta Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024) This is interesting. Labour becalmed, SNP in full retreat, the Reform VI increase just about within the margins of error and the Tories stubbornly hanging on to their core vote. It would be a brave man to call this with two and a half weeks still to go, millions undecided and the Muslim vote time bomb ticking away in hundreds of Labour seats. This ain't over until Andrew Neil sings is my considered view. |
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 19:03:29 GMT
If these polls are correct, Labour is poised to win many seats from 3rd place - and 4th place in Scotland - regardless of what tactical voting websites are saying. Only the more politically aware are likely to be tuned into the idea of tactical voting, and the much higher turnout we see at a GE compared with local elections and parliamentary by elections is likely to overwhelmingly consist of people who go along with the tide. Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings, but that does not seem to be where we are now. "Tactical voting would have much more relevance in a close election or a contest where we appeared to be looking at very modest swings" - What like 1997? At the moment this appears to be on a greater scale than 1997. That year we had Goldsmith's Referendum party , but that was not eating into the core of the Tory vote in the way that Reform appears to now be doing. Labour did pick up quite a few seats from third place in 1997 despite the LDs then polling a respectable 16%/17% under Ashdown. Whilst the LDs will still benefit in a good few seats simply on account of the scale of the Tory collapse, I suspecting we will see more leapfrogging by Labour than took place in 1997. I did not expect this to happen - certainly not on this scale - but the evidence mounts with millions likely to have voted by the end of this week. |
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