15 Jun 2024 : LAB: 43% / CON: 19% / REF: 16% / LDEM: 11%

[leftieliberal]

Jun 17, 2024 12:53:50 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:26:28 GMT domjg said:

Hi domjg , that's one the reasons I don't vote tactically. But each to their own, we are all free to vote which ever way we want, and for which ever reasons we so choose.  

For those of us in constituencies where our Party's vote is around the 5% mark, I wouldn't advocate tactical voting for anyone inclined to support us. In the last three elections we have lost our deposit twice and retained it once (2019). We hope to retain it again this time round.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 17, 2024 12:53:50 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:26:28 GMT domjg said:

I'm (currently) planning to vote LD in Didcot and Wantage based on local knowledge. Of course it's risky but in this apparently currently 30/30/30 constituency an element of gambling is going to be unavoidable. I will be gutted if the incumbent tory sneaks back in on 31% or somesuch. 

I also admit that if the tory gets back in and whoever I didn't vote for comes second I will feel terrible. 

Hi domjg , that's one the reasons I don't vote tactically. But each to their own, we are all free to vote which ever way we want, and for which ever reasons we so choose.  

Yep, there are pros and cons to voting tactically. Vote tactically, and you may get rid of Tories, but if the replacement is still quite right-wing, then you may still be pulling up the ladder, and you are denying the opportunity for something better to grow out of the margins. Labour wouldn’t have grown if people voted tactically. MPs don’t necessarily act tactically to get rid of Tories, they may sabotage Labour to let Tories in, and Tories sabotaged Major to let Labour in. 

[graham]

Jun 17, 2024 12:54:00 GMT leftieliberal said:

BBC declaring that Sunderland likely to declare first result of GE with Ashington and Blyth as a dark horse candidate. Newcastle ruling themselves out following boundary changes.

This accolade went to Billericay in 1959. Cheltenham won the race in 1964 and 1966 before narrowly being beaten by Guildford in 1970 who came first again at both 1974 elections. The small constituency of Glasgow Central declared first in 1979 - because Scotland did not have Local Elections on the same day. In 1983 and 1987 Torbay declared first only to be pipped by Sunderland South in 1992. Sunderland continued to declare first until 2017 when beaten by Newcastle.

[pjw1961]

Jun 17, 2024 12:54:00 GMT leftieliberal said:

BBC declaring that Sunderland likely to declare first result of GE with Ashington and Blyth as a dark horse candidate. Newcastle ruling themselves out following boundary changes.

I'll have a small wager that Sunderland will be 'Labour hold' on a mediocre vote, with a low turnout, Tory vote down 50% and Reform UK a good second. There will then be a fevered debate among the pundits about how Labour is under-performing compared to the exit poll and RefUK are breaking through, before a little later the first interesting result turns up and Labour take some Tory seat in the south  on a huge swing with the Conservative vote collapsing and RefUK a distant third or fourth.  

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 17, 2024 8:17:43 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 17, 2024 7:34:18 GMT norbold said:

None of Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Giles Watling, Matthew Bensilum or Natasha Osben either.

Is it just me, but it does look like the Conservatives have given up on the national campaign and must be all focusing on defending their own seats?

I’ve been posting data about that, and the Telegraph graphics showing where the campaigning is happening, which supports your view. It also showed that Refuk are prioritising Labour seats for campaigning. 

[domjg]

Jun 17, 2024 12:32:25 GMT graham said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:26:28 GMT domjg said:

I'm (currently) planning to vote LD in Didcot and Wantage based on local knowledge. Of course it's risky but in this apparently currently 30/30/30 constituency an element of gambling is going to be unavoidable. I will be gutted if the incumbent tory sneaks back in on 31% or somesuch. 

I also admit that if the tory gets back in and whoever I didn't vote for comes second I will feel terrible. 

You rather implied that you live near Sutton Courtney. How typical would that area be of the constituency as a whole?. What really matters is the state of play on the ground in Didcot and Wantage etc.

I know a few people involved in district council level politics.

[alec]

@theexterminatingdalek - "Chucking people off the site is a slippery slope which ends in an echo chamber, in my opinion."

I'm sure someone said that before.

[chrisc]

Jun 17, 2024 12:26:42 GMT jen said:

Jun 17, 2024 9:33:59 GMT norbold said:

Carswell was, of course, the sitting MP, and, for some reason that escapes me, was quite popular as a local personality at the time. Also, the new ward boundary I think would tend to be better for RFUK Ltd as it has taken in a wider rural area.

I might be wrong, and to be honest I have no idea, but I had the impression that Carswell was locally popular because he was openly racist.

If one looks across long term trends across western democracies (and I'm including the UK, even though it clearly undemocratic), most nations have around 10% of the electorate who are out and out Nazis, supplemented by around 15% with racist tendencies. It's not surprising that that the occasional constituency with a disproportionate number of racist voters crops up. It's not surprising that Farage chooses to stand there. He's made similar choices in the past.

My memory of Carswell was the opposite. It was that he was very anti EU, but not anti immigration. In fact I seem to remember that when challenged he distanced himself from some of Farage’s comments. So of course not someone who I would ever vote for due to their associations, but better than most of his ilk. 

I never met him though. Also I could be wrong and would be “happy” to be put right.  Anyway I would say he came across as OK for a Tory. Best of a bad bunch etc. etc. Like Bernard Jenkin my MP. But maybe this was just a facade he put up.  

So obviously he fell out with Farage (as most people end up doing TBH  of course). 

[chrisc]

Jun 17, 2024 13:03:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:54:00 GMT leftieliberal said:

BBC declaring that Sunderland likely to declare first result of GE with Ashington and Blyth as a dark horse candidate. Newcastle ruling themselves out following boundary changes.

I'll have a small wager that Sunderland will be 'Labour hold' on a mediocre vote, with a low turnout, Tory vote down 50% and Reform UK a good second. There will then be a fevered debate among the pundits about how Labour is under-performing compared to the exit poll and RefUK are breaking through, before a little later the first interesting result turns up and Labour take some Tory seat in the south  on a huge swing with the Conservative vote collapsing and RefUK a distant third or fourth.  

Ah. You’ve been rewatching the TV coverage of the 1997 election again haven’t you! 

[James E]

Jun 17, 2024 13:11:10 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jun 17, 2024 8:17:43 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Is it just me, but it does look like the Conservatives have given up on the national campaign and must be all focusing on defending their own seats?

I’ve been posting data about that, and the Telegraph graphics showing where the campaigning is happening, which supports your view. It also showed that Refuk are prioritising Labour seats for campaigning. 

If that is true, it is really bizarre.

The last 4 YouGovs show RefUK taking an average of 32% of the Con2019 vote, and 3% of the Lab 2019 vote. 

And on the Leave/Remain axis, they are taking 35% of Leavers and 2% of Remainers. 

[chrisc]

I don’t think people should be accused of being racist without some evidence. Here’s Carswell dissing Enoch Powell and praising multi-ethnic Britain.

www.britishfuture.org/douglas-carswell-mp-positive-immigration/


Again - not difficult to to see why Farage had a problem with him in UKIP. He’s probably a reason Farage dropped a political party (UKIP) as a vehicle for a company (Brexit Party, Reform) which he had complete control over.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 17, 2024 13:44:07 GMT James E said:

Jun 17, 2024 13:11:10 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

I’ve been posting data about that, and the Telegraph graphics showing where the campaigning is happening, which supports your view. It also showed that Refuk are prioritising Labour seats for campaigning. 

If that is true, it is really bizarre.

The last 4 YouGovs show RefUK taking an average of 32% of the Con2019 vote, and 3% of the Lab 2019 vote. 

And on the Leave/Remain axis, they are taking 35% of Leavers and 2% of Remainers. 

Well it may depend on where the votes are distributed in terms of winning seats, but yeah, I’m not sure about it all when it comes to what’s best for campaigning. Partly why I post it, to get feedback.

Incidentally James, it’s only the party leaders, but here’s a graphic of where the leaders have been campaigning. It shows Farage is more bothered about Labour seats than the others, though that’s only relative of course 

Attachments:

[pjw1961]

Jun 17, 2024 13:34:00 GMT chrisc said:

Jun 17, 2024 13:03:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

I'll have a small wager that Sunderland will be 'Labour hold' on a mediocre vote, with a low turnout, Tory vote down 50% and Reform UK a good second. There will then be a fevered debate among the pundits about how Labour is under-performing compared to the exit poll and RefUK are breaking through, before a little later the first interesting result turns up and Labour take some Tory seat in the south  on a huge swing with the Conservative vote collapsing and RefUK a distant third or fourth.  

Ah. You’ve been rewatching the TV coverage of the 1997 election again haven’t you! 

“plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”

[neilj]

Jun 17, 2024 12:33:21 GMT neilj said:

JLP Poll
*Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Figures with out reallocating don't knows

Unadjusted this poll is:

Lab 43%
Con 21%
Reform 16%
LD 10%
Green 5%

[James E]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

That graph shows Tice and Farage's combined constituency visits as 78% Con held, 22% Lab held. Given that they have made few public appearances around the country , it may mean that they have visited as few as 2 Lab-held constituencies and 7 Con-held, for example. Or at least something in those proportions.

I would not describe that as "prioritising Labour seats for campaigning".

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 17, 2024 14:08:33 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

That graph shows Tice and Carfrew's combined constituency visits as 78% Con held, 22% Lab held. Given that they have made few public appearances around the country , it may mean that they have visited as few as 2 Lab-held constituencies and 7 Con-held, for example. Or at least something in those proportions.

I would not describe that as "prioritising Labour seats for campaigning".

Yes, I agree, that’s why I said it was relative. I wasn’t using it to back up the earlier point! Was just adding extra info., which rather supports your point

[steve]

It was father's day in the USA as well as the UK last weekend.

Here's President Biden's message of greeting:

"Happy Father's Day to all the dads, pops, and father figures who have shown us guidance, encouragement, and unconditional love," Biden wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday morning.



Of course his rival disgraced criminal rapist Donald Trump offered similar falicitations:

In all-caps, Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, Sunday afternoon: "Happy Father's Day to all, including the radical left degenerates that are rapidly bringing the United States of America into third world nation status with their many attempts at trying to influence our sacred court system into breaking to their very sick and dangerous will. We need strength and loyalty to our country, and this wonderful constitution. Everything will be on full display come November 5th, 2024 - the most important day in the history of our country. Make America Great Again!!!"

[John Chanin]

Jun 16, 2024 18:32:49 GMT oldnat said:

John Chanin

How did you get the tweet to appear?

Mind you, the example is set by our leaders. So, when a Gloucestershire candidate  endorses "community pub fights" ..... 

x.com/TomMDTFC/status/1802300485669457995

It's been stated several times already - you just change the x.com to twitter.com.  As a non twitter user I prefer to have the tweets showing.  But to avoid confusion I only do it for very recent posts - and I'm not on hers very often.

[James E]

Jun 17, 2024 14:04:05 GMT neilj said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:33:21 GMT neilj said:

JLP Poll
*Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Figures with out reallocating don't knows
Unadjusted this poll is:

Lab 43%
Con 21%
Reform 16%
LD 10%
Green 5%

...and compared to the average of JLP's 2 pre-election polls (unadjusted), those figures are:
Lab 43% (-0.5)
Con 21% (-2.5)

[oldnat]

Jun 17, 2024 14:08:33 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

That graph shows Tice and Carfrew's combined constituency visits as 78% Con held, 22% Lab held. Given that they have made few public appearances around the country , it may mean that they have visited as few as 2 Lab-held constituencies and 7 Con-held, for example. Or at least something in those proportions.

I would not describe that as "prioritising Labour seats for campaigning".

I thought c-a-r-f-r-e-w didn't support any party? 

[pjw1961]

The IFS have given their assessment of the Reform UK tax and spending proposals. In non-technical language their conclusion is that they are complete weapons-grade bollocks.

Here is a an excerpt from the analysis.

"Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year. It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year. Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified."

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 17, 2024 14:22:34 GMT oldnat said:

Jun 17, 2024 14:08:33 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

That graph shows Tice and Carfrew's combined constituency visits as 78% Con held, 22% Lab held. Given that they have made few public appearances around the country , it may mean that they have visited as few as 2 Lab-held constituencies and 7 Con-held, for example. Or at least something in those proportions.

I would not describe that as "prioritising Labour seats for campaigning".

I thought c-a-r-f-r-e-w didn't support any party? 

😱😱😱😱😱😱

(I mean, I rarely drink pints and have never even been to Clacton. Never been milkshaked either)

[steve]

In load of old cobblers news

"IFS says Reform UK's plans 'don't add up' and would cost more than it claims 'by tens of billions of pounds per year'
The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK’s tax and spending plans and it says they “don’t add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year”.

Here is a an excerpt from the analysis.

Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year. It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year. Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives"


Not to be outdone the Tories engaged in their own weapons grade bullshit.

"A vote for Reform risks delivering an unaccountable Labour majority.

That would hand Keir Starmer a blank cheque to raise your taxes, take no action on illegal immigration, and even rejoin the EU, with no way to stop him.

Labour are already planning to lower the voting age to 16, and we can expect votes for migrants, EU citizens, and prisoners to follow. So a vote for Reform won’t mean five years of Labour, it would mean a generation.

In its news release CCHQ provided no evidence to support these claims."



Apparently the same risks of a large majority didn't apply for the last five years of clustershambling ineptitude.

[oldnat]

Election activity at this address.

1. Hand delivered SNP leaflet - day after election announced
2. SNP canvasser (last known canvassing in this wee town was 2014!)
3. My SNP garden posters up
4. Hand delivered SNP leaflet (4 page A3) today.

That's it.

[alhenry47]

Fold leaflet lengthwise over flat wooden kitchen spatula then poke!
This top tip originally posted on previous thread.
Albert.

[oldnat]

Jun 17, 2024 12:59:05 GMT hireton said:

So in all the Glasgow constituencies Best for Britain are advising people to vote Labour regardless of the party of the incumbent MP or the polling for that constituency. So we can clearly conclude that Best for Britain is pro-unionist and biased in its Scottish recommendations.

Best for Britain confirm that, in Scotland, they are very pro-British.

[mark61]

Jun 17, 2024 14:31:26 GMT oldnat said:

Election activity at this address.

1. Hand delivered SNP leaflet - day after election announced
2. SNP canvasser (last known canvassing in this wee town was 2014!)
3. My SNP garden posters up
4. Hand delivered SNP leaflet (4 page A3) today.

That's it.

Looks like you might be voting SNP!  Can I ask you a question though, in your opinion for whom  will disaffected Conservatives likely vote for in Scotland?  Am I right in assuming they are usually the most Pro union Cohort, I'm guessing Lib-Dems but I'm sure you will know better than I.

[hireton]

oldnat

I was just about to post this from the Get Voting website:

"In seats that are being defended by an SNP incumbent, or where 2019 General Election notional winners are the SNP, and there is no possibility of the Conservatives winning the seat, we will make a tactical voting recommendation for Scottish Labour to ensure the Scotland’s views are represented on both the next (likely) UK Government’s benches, as well as the opposition benches."

So essentially Best for Brutain is a pro Labour organisation in Scotland.

[alec]

I know there are a few people on here interested in battery technology, and this report ay be of interest - www.ft.com/content/e33cb565-6d44-4f9a-9105-f3afc03aa732?sharetype=blocked

It look like a step change in small battery energy density, more than doubling current performance. It appears there are still doubts about whether this solid state innovation will be suitable for larger applications, like cars, but it's a step change in small device power storage, if true.

[pjw1961]

Jun 17, 2024 14:57:44 GMT hireton said:

oldnat

So essentially Best for Brutain is a pro Labour organisation in Scotland.

It might be considered pro-Labour outwith Scotland. Its recommendation for Bristol Central is Labour, notwithstanding there being no risk of the Conservatives winning it, which will be controversial with one or two correspondents on here.

I'm not a fan of these tactical voting websites, although I will concede the parties also lie a lot which doesn't help voters.