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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jun 17, 2024 11:22:15 GMT
Looks like they are relying on the Survation MRP. I think it is dangerous for a tactical voting site to rely on a single MRP provider. , speaking as someone who doesn't vote tactically, I would say it was dangerous for a voter to base their vote on what any of these sites said, not knowing which prejudices, agenda, data and assumptions were under-pinning them. So where in some cases it may be crystal clear in a seat how to effectively vote ABT, there are a fair few where that is not the case! Clearly a number of Tory seats will be saved by the inherent difficulties in co-ordinating tactical voting. Its one of the factors that convinces me that the Tories will not fall below 100 seats. Tactical voting looks like it will damage the Tories, but perhaps Reform will do far more damage to them? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 11:32:25 GMT
Really sorry. Stupid of me. I’ll delete that bit Forgiven, I'm even more excited to watch it now. Perhaps I'd better edit my reply too! While we are on the subject, if people could hold off announcing the result of the GE till after the summer hols* at least, as I am saving it for then, that would be great thanks. (I’m still catching up on 2017 tbh) * Actually, if somehow ReFuk come second, maybe don’t mention it at all |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 11:43:21 GMT
domjgEvery time they are asked about EU membership, single market membership and freedom of movement the Labour leadership categorically rule it all out, not just now but forever. Starmer and Reeves have both done so again today. At some point even the most progressive pro European supporters within the Labour party and the large majority of Labour party members who want to rejoin are going to have to come to terms with the fact your leaders don't give a shit about your view on this, or be certain that the load of old cobblers they're currently spouting is just that for election purposes only so not to give the Tories and refukers a talking point. So presumably progressive Labour supporters are hoping your leadership is lying. What other areas would Labour supporters hope that your leadership is lying about. You can speak freely you're among friends.
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 11:44:45 GMT
I note also that the website is advocating a Green tactical vote in Waveney Valley - despite the MRP survey showing them as a distant fourth place!Again , this is justified on basis of it being targetted by the Greens. I don't think it makes much sense!
Obviously this can be Green propaganda on twitter and taken with a pinch of salt but it does seem to me that Greens are the challengers to the Tories in Waveney Valley with lots of (potentially dodgy) bar charts and statistics from canvass returns. Certainly no other party seems to working the seat hard and, while twitter absolutely is not representative, if you type "Waveney Valley" into the search box the Greens are literally all you see so at bare minimum this means the Greens are working the seat hard and no-one else is. However I don't think a tactical voting site should be making random (personal?) judgments and needs to be consistent at bare minimum. Truth is the MRP could well be incorrect there as they can't base their MRP on a small sub sample so national/regional demographics still appear to triumph in their predictions. It's probably better for people to make their own judgments in their own constituency because very few voters will cast their vote on the basis of a tactical voting website so the judgment on what comes through your letterbox is more likely to be a better judgement than a tactical voting website dealing with 650 constituencies. The Green candidate for Waveney Valley is their co-Leader -Adrian Ramsay. In 2010 he was Green candidate in Norwich South , and there was much hype - based on local election results over the prevous years - that he was very well placed to defeat sitting Labour MP - Charles Clarke. Even when knocking up on Polling Day the Greens remained confident, but when the votes were counted Ramsay came in a distant 4th! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 11:47:44 GMT
Didn't know where stop valve was and when engineer (from Saltburn) eventually got to us around 1 am and did so, it was in such a tight confined space and just a narrow gap underneath the sink unit, I’m not sure I could have found it anyway - especially with water gushing onto me as it was when I was looking. Yes, I had a problem with an inaccessible stop tap so had another in-line valve fitted which uses air pressure to shut off the water supply. It looks like an oversized electrical switch and is connected to the valve by about half a metre of tubing. The switch is mounted under the sink at the front. I also have the special tool to turn off the water at the stopcock in a hole in the pavement outside my house (a large pair of pliers would do the job, but I got it just after I moved in nearly 40 years ago). That’s worth knowing Leftie, thanks. I know where my stopcock is (which is almost as important as knowing where your towel is), but it does seem to seize up at times. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 11:55:08 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wEveryone can have a seized up stop cock now and then. It's normally down to stress or tiredness. Have You tried wd40 I find a tea spoon in my late night horlicks does wonders.
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Post by kay9 on Jun 17, 2024 11:55:44 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.org
For my constituency, the advice is "Vote With Your Heart. Tactical voting isn’t necessary in all seats, and we want as many people to be able to vote for the party they think represents their values at this election. We haven’t made a recommendation here because the polling suggests the Conservatives can't win here. This means this seat is safe and you can vote for the party you want to."For my seat, the advice is “ This seat is being defended by the Liberal Democrats. For that reason we recommend voting for the Liberal Democrats in this constituency.” In fact, this is constituency in which the boundaries have changed quite a lot. While the SLD won in my neck of the woods in 2019, the SNP won it in 2017 (With only a ‘majority’ of 2). With the new boundaries, it is often shown as a new seat, with no incumbent. It is frequently ‘awarded’ to the SNP - on the assumption that if fought on the 2024 boundaries in 2019, the SNP would have won it. The advice continues: ”It looks like this is a Labour and Liberal Democrats target seat.” In fact, the SLab got 3.7% of the vote in 2019! (On the old boundaries). Both the SCon and SLab plummeted compared with 2017. [Ruth Davidson had said in 2017 that ‘only’ the Conservatives could oust the SNP. There were a few sore heads among the Tory voters who saw the SLD defeated by 2 votes.] If bestforbritain is an EU-promoting site, then they should be recommending that tactical voters should give their votes to the SNP - the only party contesting the constituency which advocates rejoining. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 11:57:23 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed!
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 17, 2024 11:58:57 GMT
Just some methodology for MRP | Voter 1 | Voter 2 | Voter 3 | Voter 4 | Voter 5 | | a | d | U | a | a | | b | e | V | b | b | | c | f | - | c | c | | X | X | - | X | - | | Z | Z | - | - | Z | | Party A | Party A | Party A | Party B | Party C |
The rows are the various variables describing the voter (the value of their answer for the particular factor), the last row is the voting intention. Clearly, there are infinite number of variables (primary, secondary, dominant, reciprocal, recessive, unilateral, etc.), hence the differentiation between the capital and non-capital letters. Because of this, reduction is needed, and the following reduction of inference is used: Not(A and B) is the same as (Not A) or (Not B)Not(A or B) is the same as (Not A) and (Not B)From this reduction then there are a few (dominant) patterns emerge, and then by looking at a particular constituency, the assumption is made that the voters in the particular constituency would correspond to those "few (dominant) patterns". However, because the answers are not dichotomous for many of the questions (so not yes or no values for variables), further points are introduced (they correspond to the bold part above): Not(x) is the same as (1-truth(X))(x and y) is the same as minimum(truth(x), truth(y))(x or y) is the same as maximum(truth(x), truth(y))Because of all these, the reliability of the MRP poll requires a lot of input, work, inclusion, exclusion, and it makes it very expensive if there is an absence of an extremely high level of knowledge of the operation of the model (it is not taught in undergrad or even in masters). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 12:00:31 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Everyone can have a seized up stop cock now and then. It's normally down to stress or tiredness. Have You tried wd40 I find a tea spoon in my late night horlicks does wonders. Excellent double entendre there Steve, and your method seems preferable to the traditional approach of getting the plumber to come round. (He normally uses a wrench 😱) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 12:02:33 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed! That’s all very modern Steve, traditionally it’s the guy who locks himself in the shed? (Oldnat has five!) |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 17, 2024 12:03:17 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed! So long as that's not a euphemism for you with the key that sounds a reasonable strategy I might adopt it if the SNP and Greens vote falls too far on election day |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 12:14:59 GMT
The first Tory leaflet of the campaign arrived through the door today. Several interesting points about that:
(a) It is addressed to my daughter, who is the only person in the house to have a postal vote, so it seems likely the timing relates to the start of postal voting.
(b) It arrived with my standard mail along with fliers for "a summer of fun" at Potters Resorts and the chance to book a cruise with Ambassador cruise line. Clearly Tories using the free mail shot option rather than volunteers hand delivering. It has been reported that they are very short of the latter, the voluntary party having been hollowed out in recent years.
(c) Although not large, the way it is folded gives it six 'pages'. Five of these are devoted to photos of James Cleverly (10 of them!) and what he has supposedly done for the constituency. It is very locally focused.
(d) Only one page is given over to the Tory national message. Sunak is mentioned twice and there is even a photo of him, but darkly shaded and written over. Apparently he has a "Clear Plan of Bold Action for a Secure Future". In contrast you don't know what Keir Stamer will do as "Labour don't have a plan".
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 12:16:09 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed! She has my sympathies!  |
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Post by Rafwan on Jun 17, 2024 12:18:39 GMT
“… you're among friends”
(Cough, splutter!!!)
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 12:22:51 GMT
domjg Every time they are asked about EU membership, single market membership and freedom of movement the Labour leadership categorically rule it all out, not just now but forever. Starmer and Reeves have both done so again today. At some point even the most progressive pro European supporters within the Labour party and the large majority of Labour party members who want to rejoin are going to have to come to terms with the fact your leaders don't give a shit about your view on this, or be certain that the load of old cobblers they're currently spouting is just that for election purposes only so not to give the Tories and refukers a talking point. So presumably progressive Labour supporters are hoping your leadership is lying. What other areas would Labour supporters hope that your leadership is lying about. You can speak freely you're among friends. They're not 'my' leaders, I very much want a Labour gvt but I'm not a member and will probably be voting LD at the GE in an attempt to give the tories a maximum boot. The bottom line is that unlike the tories Labour have no ideological baggage stopping them post election bringing us back into alignment. It will need to be done stealthily and slowly, pointless at this stage to gift the tories a line like 'Labour will reverse brexit' to try to get back those of their ilk flirting with refuk. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 17, 2024 12:26:28 GMT
I think it is dangerous for a tactical voting site to rely on a single MRP provider. , speaking as someone who doesn't vote tactically, I would say it was dangerous for a voter to base their vote on what any of these sites said, not knowing which prejudices, agenda, data and assumptions were under-pinning them. So where in some cases it may be crystal clear in a seat how to effectively vote ABT, there are a fair few where that is not the case! Clearly a number of Tory seats will be saved by the inherent difficulties in co-ordinating tactical voting. Its one of the factors that convinces me that the Tories will not fall below 100 seats. Tactical voting looks like it will damage the Tories, but perhaps Reform will do far more damage to them?I'm (currently) planning to vote LD in Didcot and Wantage based on local knowledge. Of course it's risky but in this apparently currently 30/30/30 constituency an element of gambling is going to be unavoidable. I will be gutted if the incumbent tory sneaks back in on 31% or somesuch. I also admit that if the tory gets back in and whoever I didn't vote for comes second I will feel terrible. |
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 12:26:42 GMT
I share that view. It is worth noting that Carswell got almost 60% for UKIP in the 2014 by-election and 44% in the 2015 GE (I recognise the boundaries were different), so Farage is well short of that. There is clearly a market for Farage's brand of populist dog-whistle racism, but I agree 15% probably maxes that out and it will be fairly evenly spread across England and Wales. Without the relative appeal of the anti-EU policy (and even that now massively tarnished by reality) it is hard to see a big breakthrough under FPTP for Reform. I expect the Conservatives to out-poll them in real votes by around two to one. Carswell was, of course, the sitting MP, and, for some reason that escapes me, was quite popular as a local personality at the time. Also, the new ward boundary I think would tend to be better for RFUK Ltd as it has taken in a wider rural area. I might be wrong, and to be honest I have no idea, but I had the impression that Carswell was locally popular because he was openly racist. If one looks across long term trends across western democracies (and I'm including the UK, even though it clearly undemocratic), most nations have around 10% of the electorate who are out and out Nazis, supplemented by around 15% with racist tendencies. It's not surprising that that the occasional constituency with a disproportionate number of racist voters crops up. It's not surprising that Farage chooses to stand there. He's made similar choices in the past. |
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 12:32:25 GMT
Hiya leftieliberal , speaking as someone who doesn't vote tactically, I would say it was dangerous for a voter to base their vote on what any of these sites said, not knowing which prejudices, agenda, data and assumptions were under-pinning them. So where in some cases it may be crystal clear in a seat how to effectively vote ABT, there are a fair few where that is not the case! Clearly a number of Tory seats will be saved by the inherent difficulties in co-ordinating tactical voting. Its one of the factors that convinces me that the Tories will not fall below 100 seats. Tactical voting looks like it will damage the Tories, but perhaps Reform will do far more damage to them? I'm (currently) planning to vote LD in Didcot and Wantage based on local knowledge. Of course it's risky but in this apparently currently 30/30/30 constituency an element of gambling is going to be unavoidable. I will be gutted if the incumbent tory sneaks back in on 31% or somesuch. I also admit that if the tory gets back in and whoever I didn't vote for comes second I will feel terrible. You rather implied that you live near Sutton Courtney. How typical would that area be of the constituency as a whole?. What really matters is the state of play on the ground in Didcot and Wantage etc. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 12:33:16 GMT
domjg Every time they are asked about EU membership, single market membership and freedom of movement the Labour leadership categorically rule it all out, not just now but forever. Starmer and Reeves have both done so again today. At some point even the most progressive pro European supporters within the Labour party and the large majority of Labour party members who want to rejoin are going to have to come to terms with the fact your leaders don't give a shit about your view on this, or be certain that the load of old cobblers they're currently spouting is just that for election purposes only so not to give the Tories and refukers a talking point. So presumably progressive Labour supporters are hoping your leadership is lying. What other areas would Labour supporters hope that your leadership is lying about. You can speak freely you're among friends. They're not 'my' leaders, I very much want a Labour gvt but I'm not a member and will probably be voting LD at the GE in an attempt to give the tories a maximum boot. The bottom line is that unlike the tories Labour have no ideological baggage stopping them post election bringing us back into alignment well you say that, but there is a reason why quite a few lefties have issues with being in the EU. Free movements of labour is one of the ways capital uses to drive down wages, which is why traditionally it is a right-wing policy to be in favour of free movement, along with other familiar pro-capital aspects of trade deals: being in favour of free movement of capital, goods and services, of restrictions on state action etc. Just because it’s right-wing, doesn’t make it a bad policy though, and I’m in favour, but to make it work most effectively, there are other things that ideally need to be done, like building more houses, creating more good jobs, maybe not allowing such free movement of capital alongside et cetera. I.e., if we accept free movement of people driving down wages, maybe don’t also have free movement of capital offshoring jobs too! Because the middle-class have been greatly sheltered from the effects of immigration on their jobs (via language, credentialism and EU regs protecting their careers from the competition) and indeed largely benefit*, it’s easy for them to be in favour. But middle-class careers may also come under more pressure now from immigration, especially with the rise of AI, real-time language transaction etc. so you may see attitudes change If Starmer is actually a Leftie, then he may not be so keen on free movement, but it is a big if. * because it drives up house prices, drives down the price of blueberries et cetera, and creates more demand for middle-class, public-sector jobs |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 17, 2024 12:33:21 GMT
JLP Poll
*Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)
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Post by RAF on Jun 17, 2024 12:33:54 GMT
Faith has just informed me that I appear to be " in one of those moods" and has locked herself in the garden shed! Well you know what they say. An Englishman's (or English woman's) shed is their LD (sand)castle. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 17, 2024 12:38:45 GMT
JLP Poll *Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points* Change on last week in brackets LAB: 40% (-1) CON: 23% (-1) REF: 18% (+3) LDEM: 9% (-2) GRN: 5% (-) Electoral Calculus: LAB 443 CON 114 LIB 42 RFM 3 GRN 2 SNP 21 PLC 4 OTHER 3 |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 17, 2024 12:44:34 GMT
The first Tory leaflet of the campaign arrived through the door today. Several interesting points about that: (a) It is addressed to my daughter, who is the only person in the house to have a postal vote, so it seems likely the timing relates to the start of postal voting. (b) It arrived with my standard mail along with fliers for "a summer of fun" at Potters Resorts and the chance to book a cruise with Ambassador cruise line. Clearly Tories using the free mail shot option rather than volunteers hand delivering. It has been reported that they are very short of the latter, the voluntary party having been hollowed out in recent years. (c) Although not large, the way it is folded gives it six 'pages'. Five of these are devoted to photos of James Cleverly (10 of them!) and what he has supposedly done for the constituency. It is very locally focused. (d) Only one page is given over to the Tory national message. Sunak is mentioned twice and there is even a photo of him, but darkly shaded and written over. Apparently he has a "Clear Plan of Bold Action for a Secure Future". In contrast you don't know what Keir Stamer will do as "Labour don't have a plan". Yes, I've had an addressed freepost from my Tory MP too. If a party is using addressed freepost, Royal Mail allows the party to send them out in up to five 'waves' with delivery no more than three days after delivery to the Sorting centre. So you and the other members of your family may receive different freepost leaflets at different times during the campaign. As long as there is no more than one leaflet per elector, it's all legal. |
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Post by jen on Jun 17, 2024 12:51:45 GMT
Oh, and by the way, since it was recently a matter of discussion (regarding PR), although I obviously disagree with them, I think it important that this considerable racist minority are represented in Parliament.
Indeed, I think it would be easier to find Parliamentary consensus if, for example, the right were split between the culture warrior racists and the old school pragmatists. And a similar split on the left would also be most welcome. Surely that would help finding a consensus towards what people really want. Shifting majorities on a case by case basis surely would be a better reflection of the wishes of the electorate?
Maybe there are some racists who are against Tory Brexiteer policies of dumping sewage in our rivers, and on specific points of policy could find common ground with the Greens?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 12:53:16 GMT
domjg Every time they are asked about EU membership, single market membership and freedom of movement the Labour leadership categorically rule it all out, not just now but forever. Starmer and Reeves have both done so again today. At some point even the most progressive pro European supporters within the Labour party and the large majority of Labour party members who want to rejoin are going to have to come to terms with the fact your leaders don't give a shit about your view on this, or be certain that the load of old cobblers they're currently spouting is just that for election purposes only so not to give the Tories and refukers a talking point. So presumably progressive Labour supporters are hoping your leadership is lying. What other areas would Labour supporters hope that your leadership is lying about. You can speak freely you're among friends. Yes well, this is the thing isn’t it. Political choices seem to depend on trying to second-guess and navigate all the gaslighting. And it doesn’t end there, because even if you decide that Starmer is gaslighting on rejoining, there is another level of gaslighting to navigate. For example, if Starmer really is against rejoining, is it just a temporary thing because he doesn’t think it’s politically expedient currently, but he would like to do so later? Or does he now think that actually it’s not a good idea at all, because of some of the economic aspects. A third possibility is something of a hybrid: he may be in favour of rejoining eventually, but would now wish to delay it more than before, because we’ve had so much immigration recently, and it’s going to take quite a bit to build all the housing and infrastructure and create jobs to accommodate it all. (If one were being cynical, one might consider high immigration a Tory strategy to thwart Labour hopes of rejoining quickly) |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 17, 2024 12:53:43 GMT
Is it just me, but it does look like the Conservatives have given up on the national campaign and must be all focusing on defending their own seats?You may be on to something there One example: www.politicshome.com/news/article/liz-truss-campaigning-harder-than-ever-to-keep-seat"Locals say Liz Truss, the constituency's MP of 14 years, is working harder than usual to avoid another political humiliation... Since the 4 July General Election was called, Truss has been knocking on thousands of doors. Her Facebook page is a hive of activity: photos inside village halls, with her team on street corners, and a snap of her with some geese. According to Labour candidate Terry Jermy, she's “done more work in South West Norfolk this time than the last three elections combined”." |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jun 17, 2024 12:53:50 GMT
I'm (currently) planning to vote LD in Didcot and Wantage based on local knowledge. Of course it's risky but in this apparently currently 30/30/30 constituency an element of gambling is going to be unavoidable. I will be gutted if the incumbent tory sneaks back in on 31% or somesuch. I also admit that if the tory gets back in and whoever I didn't vote for comes second I will feel terrible. , that's one the reasons I don't vote tactically. But each to their own, we are all free to vote which ever way we want, and for which ever reasons we so choose. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 17, 2024 12:54:00 GMT
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Post by hireton on Jun 17, 2024 12:59:05 GMT
So in all the Glasgow constituencies Best for Britain are advising people to vote Labour regardless of the party of the incumbent MP or the polling for that constituency. So we can clearly conclude that Best for Britain is pro-unionist and biased in its Scottish recommendations.
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