oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 20:21:21 GMT
Given the dire nature of Tory prospects, I am a little surprised that the likes of John Major and Kenneth Clarke have not been wheeled out to press party loyalty buttons and stiffen up support amongst traditional older Tory supporters. It wouldn't surprise me to find they were voting Labour this time round |
|
graham
Member
Posts: 3,764
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Jun 30, 2024 20:22:06 GMT
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 20:23:53 GMT
Indeed. A moderate conservative administration at Westminster is always better than a corrupt, xenophobic one - as we'll see over the next 5 years or so. Talking of corruption in government, how's Operation Branchform getting on?
Branchform has precisely zero to do with "corruption in government". |
|
graham
Member
Posts: 3,764
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Jun 30, 2024 20:24:11 GMT
Given the dire nature of Tory prospects, I am a little surprised that the likes of John Major and Kenneth Clarke have not been wheeled out to press party loyalty buttons and stiffen up support amongst traditional older Tory supporters. It wouldn't surprise me to find they were voting Labour this time round Clarke - in the Lords - has no vote at the GE. Maybe Major will vote LD. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 20:29:15 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me to find they were voting Labour this time round Clarke - in the Lords - has no vote at the GE. Maybe Major will vote LD. |
|
|
|
Post by ping on Jun 30, 2024 20:34:01 GMT
Canvassing in Kenilworth and Southam: The Fifth and Final Installment I was in Kenilworth on Wednesday, and the poster count (basically in the old Kenilworth area you describe) was Green 3, Labour 2, Liberal 1, Others 0. Not a high count given that my walk covered quite a distance. No, we can't boast a poster count like Matt Western's in Warwick and Leamington. However, I did see at least 2 Green and 3 Labour on Priorsfield Road (in old Kenilworth). Our Labour poster hotspot is definitely Waverley Road however: 7 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. Hope you enjoyed your visit :-) |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 20:39:04 GMT
Campaign report from Clacton.
Kirby Le Soken is one of those fairly typical Essex villages (rural, pretty, traditionally Tory) that has sprouted a growth of somewhat boring estates of "executive homes" lacking in character but inhabited by the mildly prosperous and the upwardly mobile and it was one of these that I was canvassing as part of a joint leafleting/canvassing exercise. Such estates are typically poor terrain for Labour, although there are always some supporters to be found of course.
There was eight of us, mostly Clacton members, plus myself and a lady from Southgate and Wood Green CLP who was marveling at the existence of actual Conservatives in Essex as she doesn't know any in Haringey. I drew the canvassing straw, which was good fun as always.
Along the way, amidst the "don't knows", the "go aways" and the clear answers one way and another, I had several interesting discussions. To give this some structure I will tackle the three main parties in these parts and then a few other observations at the end.
Reform UK
The out and proud Reform voters were a truculent lot and notable for seeming extremely angry about something not necessarily that specific - it wasn't Labour or the government or even immigration, they were just angry and defiant, possibly with the world in general. My Labour colleague I was canvassing with said they were exactly the same sort of people who hero-worshipped Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and I think this a shrewd observation. The similarity is less about the exact policies, more about admiring 'strong leadership' and 'putting the Great into Great Britain'. Farage makes them feel good about themselves, as Maggie did.
In addition there were another set who hid behind claiming to be undecided, but were likely Reform voters, while being a bit more ashamed to admit their choice.
Reform has also managed to irritate a lot of ordinary voters as they have been bombarding the area with multiple leaflets. Several people complained about this and didn't much like the fact that Reform were obviously spending a lot of national campaigning money there - they felt they were being used.
Conservatives
I still found plenty of these. It is a fairly well-off area and traditionally Conservative. However these Conservative loyalists were interesting in one respect - they were quick to express their hostility to Farage. I had a friendly conversation with one gentleman who was a life-long Conservative supporter and either a past or current member, who was almost apologetic in saying he couldn't vote for us due to his attachment to his own party but despairing about what had happened to it and the rise of Reform. I told him that, in fairness, if our man couldn't win then I hoped Giles Watling did (Watling is a relatively moderate Tory MP and a remainer). It was clear to me that if Farage did achieve his dream of taking over the Conservatives, they would shed a certain amount of traditional support from Tory moderates.
One Conservative voter had a very specific reason for not voting Labour as she was quick to tell me. She has children in private education and didn't fancy paying 20% VAT. Not a vote lost however, as I couldn't see her ever being a Labour voter anyway.
Labour
Naturally I got the most feedback on Labour, and a lot of it was lukewarm at best (but to repeat, this is not a strong Labour area), with the exception of those who were going to vote for us of course. Among the floating voters Keir Starmer came up several times - not a leader, boring, I would vote for you if you had a different leader, etc. However, it was also obvious that Starmer has removed a lot of the barriers to voting Labour - many of those saying "undecided" were happy to say Labour were in the frame.
The single most useful thing I did was actually change someones voting intention. Seasoned campaigners will know this is not the purpose of canvassing, but in this case a lady said to me "I've always voted Labour, but I can't this time because of Keir Starmer". I said "What and let Farage in?" (with some genuine horror). A look of consternation spread on her own face and she said "Ahh .. umm ... yes, Farage ... Ok, I'm voting Labour".
There were of course as always the outright hostile. A classic was an ex-East End type (as shown by his accent and West Ham t-shirt) who said "Never Labour, they've let us down too many times". I observed that Labour hadn't been in power for 14 years. "Yeah," he said, "But look at what Blair and Brown did." Given I think Blair and Brown did a lot of good, especially compared to what we have had since, I'm still confused by this, but I wasn't there to have an argument of course, so I departed.
Bottom line politically - I expect Farage will win comfortably enough, but there are more complex under-currents at work. In particular, the despair of moderate traditional Conservatives and their dislike of Farage was interesting.
Other observations
Two people expressed their delight at having been canvassed saying that it has been either years or never since the last time. Both said that the fact someone from Labour had bothered to do so made them more inclined to vote for us (they were both undecided, at least one genuinely so I would say).
There is a lot of general disillusionment with all parties abroad - many comments along the lines of "they're all useless". Likely to translate into a low turnout as well as votes for Reform and other minor parties.
Two separate women said they couldn't tell me how they would vote as their husbands decided that and told them what to do and they hadn't had their orders yet. It appears the Suffragettes were wasting their time with some people. I confess I was rather shocked by that. And before Mercian asks, they were not of Asian descent but white British.
A highlight for me was a lovely chat with a very elderly and charming man who defied all the stereotypes about age groups, in that his top issue was housing and the difficulties young people, including his granddaughter, had in buying a house. His interest in current affairs and his determination to make it to the polling station and vote even although nearly blind (he asked me if it was allowed to get help with the ballot paper - I advised him to speak to the polling staff) was heartwarming.
Another was a large and magnificent peacock that was perched on top of a house roof in the middle of this housing estate. Locals told us that there are two that visit regularly from their home in some nearby woodland.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jun 30, 2024 20:41:04 GMT
As is my wont, I like to be the sword of truth on this forum and cut through the zealotry and obfuscation of some of our more partisan correspondents. I therefore feel obliged to familiarise you all with the good Scottish boys in blue ongoing investigation into the SNP's alleged misuse of party funds. The SNP currently being the devolved governing party in Scotland. I warn you that the contents are deeply disturbing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Branchform# |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 20:41:55 GMT
Far right National Rally leads first voting round - exit polls
France's far right National Rally party was seen leading the first round of parliamentary elections with around 33% of votes, according to exit polls.
I wonder how our Europhiles feel about the far right making inroads in EU countries? I know some of you will say we could have been a moderating influence, but better not to be involved IMO. Last time the far right took over in Europe, we ended up 'involved' whether we liked it or not. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,388
|
Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 20:49:36 GMT
More on Starmer’s popularity, or lack of it, which some sections of the press make a big deal of Looking at the tweet and graph below his net approval rating is about the same as Johnson's was at the 2019 election. I can't remember the hand wringing then about Johnson's lack of popularity, rather the reverse There really does seem one rule for Labour politicians and a different rule for tory ones x.com/SpaJw/status/1806948234092245447 |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Jun 30, 2024 20:54:50 GMT
Thanks. As RAF said, it is at least very unusual for the (presumably) incoming PM to be so unpopular before he even starts. That was all my point was. It might mean that he doesn't get as much of the traditional 'honeymoon period' that incoming LOTO get. On the other hand the very low expectations this indicates might make it easier for him to impress. I've said this before. If the expectations are low anything even half decent overall will be exceeding the expectations of a cynical public. Of course, if he can't even reach the public's low bar of expectations, then the public's attitude to politicians will further deteriorate. A particularly important parliament for so many reasons methinks. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,388
|
Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 21:00:20 GMT
Interesting analysis, hard to remember now that Thatcher had a minus 19 rating at the 1979 election as best PM Today Starmer has a plus 25, even Blair only had a plus 17 rating x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1807501880773255286Looking at the longest-running record we have of this metric (Ipsos's 'most capable PM' question), 2024 does stand out in being particularly lopsided for a 'change' election. 'Most capable PM' margin prior to polling day (for victors): 1979: -19 1997: +17 2010: +4 2024: +25 |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jun 30, 2024 21:00:35 GMT
"Senior figures in the left-green New Popular Front (NFP) alliance - including Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of Unbowed France (LFI) - have already pledged that in all constituencies where RN finished first and the NFP candidate third, the NFP candidate would withdraw." Macron's lot have not yet returned the favour. To be fair, it's not a symmetrical thing - if the left alliance came third in a seat there's very probably no point in contesting the run-off because they're not going to pick up any real support from eliminated parties; whoever has finished second to Le Pen's lot is likely to be more appealing as a compromise anyway. Whereas if Macron's candidate has come third and isn't too far behind the NFP candidate in second, they might well be better placed to pick up ROC and other support in the second round than the NFP candidate - that will likely be negotiated seat-by-seat. Also it remains to be seen how magnanimous Melenchon and co are actually being. They'd have to have got about 20% or more of the vote to qualify for the run-off from third place - the number of seats that's actually happened in (and where Le Pen's lot have also come top) might turn out to be a relatively painless sacrifice anyway. |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Jun 30, 2024 21:00:45 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me to find they were voting Labour this time round Nice try. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 21:03:25 GMT
As is my wont, I like to be the sword of truth on this forum and cut through the zealotry and obfuscation of some of our more partisan correspondents. I therefore feel obliged to familiarise you all with the good Scottish boys in blue ongoing investigation into the SNP's alleged misuse of party funds. The SNP currently being the devolved governing party in Scotland. I warn you that the contents are deeply disturbing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Branchform#
If you had bothered to read anything about Operation Branchform, you would know that it is not into "the SNP's misuse of party funds". The charge is that an employee of the party embezzled party funds.
Rather than the "sword of truth", you are more of a dishonest prick. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 21:05:45 GMT
As is my wont, I like to be the sword of truth on this forum and cut through the zealotry and obfuscation of some of our more partisan correspondents. I therefore feel obliged to familiarise you all with the good Scottish boys in blue ongoing investigation into the SNP's alleged misuse of party funds. The SNP currently being the devolved governing party in Scotland. I warn you that the contents are deeply disturbing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Branchform# Plus-which there hasn’t been much info. about leafleting or campaigning etc. from that neck of the woods. 👎🏻 (Not even from Portugal, come to think of it...) |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Jun 30, 2024 21:06:07 GMT
Clarke - in the Lords - has no vote at the GE. Maybe Major will vote LD. ... and again! |
|
|
|
Post by mark61 on Jun 30, 2024 21:06:08 GMT
Interestingly BBC news tonight happy to describe Marine Le Pen's Front National as far right but are shy of applying the same description to Ref UK.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 21:10:04 GMT
"Senior figures in the left-green New Popular Front (NFP) alliance - including Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of Unbowed France (LFI) - have already pledged that in all constituencies where RN finished first and the NFP candidate third, the NFP candidate would withdraw." Macron's lot have not yet returned the favour. To be fair, it's not a symmetrical thing - if the left alliance came third in a seat there's very probably no point in contesting the run-off because they're not going to pick up any real support from eliminated parties; whoever has finished second to Le Pen's lot is likely to be more appealing as a compromise anyway. Whereas if Macron's candidate has come third and isn't too far behind the NFP candidate in second, they might well be better placed to pick up ROC and other support in the second round than the NFP candidate - that will likely be negotiated seat-by-seat. Also it remains to be seen how magnanimous Melenchon and co are actually being. They'd have to have got about 20% or more of the vote to qualify for the run-off from third place - the number of seats that's actually happened in (and where Le Pen's lot have also come top) might turn out to be a relatively painless sacrifice anyway. I don't claim to be an expert, but I read that because of the high turnout and the fact there are three sizable main blocs rather than a multitude of smaller parties it is likely there will be many more seats where three candidates have qualified for the second round than is usual. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 21:12:08 GMT
As is my wont, I like to be the sword of truth on this forum and cut through the zealotry and obfuscation of some of our more partisan correspondents. I therefore feel obliged to familiarise you all with the good Scottish boys in blue ongoing investigation into the SNP's alleged misuse of party funds. The SNP currently being the devolved governing party in Scotland. I warn you that the contents are deeply disturbing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Branchform# Plus-which there hasn’t been much info. about leafleting or campaigning etc. from that neck of the woods. 👎🏻 (Not even from Portugal, come to think of it...) The update from Portugal was petty extensive - covered 100% of the Hireton household (and a 100% turnout too).  |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jun 30, 2024 21:13:05 GMT
Interestingly BBC news tonight happy to describe Marine Le Pen's Front National as far right but are shy of applying the same description to Ref UK. On the other hand Kuenssberg has escaped censure. The only thing I've learned on this site is how to spell her name. I shall hv a long retreat after the election as I dont care which of the Toues suceeds should Sunak depart. Will you continue as Mody Mark. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 21:14:13 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised either. Nor am I surprised that so many on this board, who were bitterly opposed to them, are now happy to share their political stance. Nice try. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 21:15:01 GMT
Plus-which there hasn’t been much info. about leafleting or campaigning etc. from that neck of the woods. 👎🏻 (Not even from Portugal, come to think of it...) The update from Portugal was petty extensive - covered 100% of the Hireton household (and a 100% turnout too). Did I miss a post about Portuguese letterboxes? Where is it?! |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 21:19:22 GMT
Plus-which there hasn’t been much info. about leafleting or campaigning etc. from that neck of the woods. 👎🏻 (Not even from Portugal, come to think of it...) |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 21:20:49 GMT
True about Clarke, but Lib-Dems are probably too radical for Major. Starmer's Labour would be more to his taste. ... and again! |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 21:21:57 GMT
Plus-which there hasn’t been much info. about leafleting or campaigning etc. from that neck of the woods. 👎🏻 (Not even from Portugal, come to think of it...) Thank you, though am particularly interested in field reports, and whether anyone can beat PJ’s leafleting performance. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 21:22:09 GMT
The update from Portugal was petty extensive - covered 100% of the Hireton household (and a 100% turnout too). Did I miss a post about Portuguese letterboxes? Where is it?! I assume some form of airmail was involved. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 21:25:10 GMT
Interestingly BBC news tonight happy to describe Marine Le Pen's Front National as far right but are shy of applying the same description to Ref UK. On the other hand Kuenssberg has escaped censure. The only thing I've learned on this site is how to spell her name. I shall hv a long retreat after the election as I dont care which of the Toues suceeds should Sunak depart. Will you continue as Mody Mark. Sorry to disappoint robbie, but my fellow Labour canvasser in Clacton made a point of asking me whether I had seen the latest example of BBC bias on the Kuenssberg show that morning! (I had not). |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 21:25:51 GMT
Interestingly BBC news tonight happy to describe Marine Le Pen's Front National as far right but are shy of applying the same description to Ref UK. The only thing I've learned on this site is how to spell her name. and how to send a gift to steve 🎁 |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 21:27:55 GMT
Since there have been no more leaflets here, since my last report, that's hardly surprising! However, if I get any more, or if I see any campaigners, I promise to let you know. Thank you, though am particularly interested in field reports, and whether anyone can beat PJ’s leafleting performance. I'm still going with the targeted deliveries. Not sure of the exact number, but over 1,000 of all types so far. I'll add the numbers up when I finish. |
|
