15 Jun 2024 : LAB: 43% / CON: 19% / REF: 16% / LDEM: 11%

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 15:45:01 GMT steve said:

What would you suggest lock them up again?
.

Well he’s done quite a few posts re: ventilation, improvement of, for eggers, if that helps any?…

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 15:27:10 GMT robbiealive said:

Any comment from the site's most prolific poster and Met expert. 

I think he’s busy with alec and Covid at the mo’…

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
I no longer see that particular contributors posts what was he talking about.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 16:13:58 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
I no longer see that particular contributors posts what was he talking about.

Do you mean Robbie? I didn’t realise you couldn’t see them. Anyways, here goes…

Jun 30, 2024 15:27:10 GMT robbiealive said:

This comes from the official Metropolitan Police Website.

We are told that JSO are "planning summer of disruption" at airports. Bold statement as far as I can see that the people who have been arrested are guilty. Aren't the police supposed to wait until people are convicted before declaring their guilt. Police are acting as a propaganda arm of the state.

Chief Supt Ian Howells, who led the operation, said: “We know Just Stop Oil are planning to disrupt airports across the country this summer which is why we have taken swift and robust action now."

Why bother with a trial?

Any comment from the site's most prolific poster and Met expert.

news.met.police.uk/news/arrests-made-as-just-stop-oil-plan-summer-disruption-485788#:~:text=A%20total%20of%2027%20people,conspire%20to%20disrupt%20national%20infrastructure.

I presume you can see the quote? I don’t think quotes get blocked?

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Oh good another load of old cobblers about propaganda arm of the state.
But as it was you asking.

It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again.

Then police have a primary duty to maintain the peace and individual human rights this would of course include both demonstrators rights to peacefully protest but also to prevent the disruption of airports which would inevitably result in inconvenience and disruption for far more people.

Preventing something illegal happening in the first place is a pretty effective way to avoid both prosecutions and trials.

[alec]

steve - "What would you suggest lock them up again?

Covid isn't going away any time soon,children are going to be exposed,that's an unavoidable fact, fortunately the overwhelming majority won't come to any significant harm."

You have no way of knowing whether anyone will or won't come to significant harm. The data is suggesting a large proportion suffering a significant level of harm seems more likely than not.

What would I suggest? What I've always suggested, with some tweaks to reflect updated science and technology:

Target schools, medical and care settings firstly. Go with far-UVC lighting as the critical path, as this is now proven to be very safe and extremely effective. Pair this with some basic ventilation, and indoor spaces become instantly safe from covid, every other respiratory illness, norovirus and all other surface born infections, and fungal infections also. It's a game changer.

There is a capital cost, but this is limited when compared against the cost of the preventable disease. Ventilation and filtration are also important, but a bit more difficult for widespread adoption, but they have their place, and there should be clean air standards to promote investment.

While we're making buildings safe, we should have far better monitoring and publicly available data, better education about the risks of spreading infection, and stronger guidance on staying at home when sick, with a workable sick pay system.

The Lib Dems have been starting on some of this, but they're not there quite yet. Give them a hand. It really isn't rocket science. We don't have to accept the constant spread of preventable disease, and everything would function far more efficiently if we took this seriously.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 16:26:05 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Oh good another load of old cobblers about propaganda arm of the state.
But as it was you asking.

It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again.

Then police have a primary duty to maintain the peace and individual human rights this would of course include both demonstrators rights to peacefully protest but also to prevent the disruption of airports which would inevitably result in inconvenience and disruption for far more people.

Preventing something illegal happening in the first place is a pretty effective way to avoid both prosecutions and trials.

It wasn’t me asking Steve. My only involvement was that I just said you might be busy. (This may have been in error)


P.s. if Robbie replies, that isn’t me either

[johntel]

Jun 30, 2024 15:39:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

For those who lay greater store by betting odds than I do (johntel, Graham etc) this news may be of interest.

The Odds Checker website has the Lib Dems the slight favourites with most bookmakers to win Stratford on Thursday.

Wowsers!

good! All's well that ends well i hope. 

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
I understand that the reply wasn't directed at you, I'm not blaming the messenger.

alec
I entirely agree with you about all the measures you listed, I wouldn't agree with you about the significant harm question given that the vast majority of children will have had covid over the last few years world wide and the vast majority haven't come to any significant harm.
Maybe they will in the future but there's a hint of cjd exaggeration in making such an assumption.

[steve]

England millionaire kick ballers up against the varsity, loan players from Watford.

They stand no chance.

[leftieliberal]

Jun 30, 2024 16:52:35 GMT steve said:

England millionaire kick ballers up against the varsity, loan players from Watford.

They stand no chance.

It's Iceland all over again. Can we sack Southgate and get a new England manager for the second half?

[oldnat]

Jun 30, 2024 16:52:35 GMT steve said:

England millionaire kick ballers up against the varsity, loan players from Watford.

They stand no chance.

Maybe if they got their own anthem, it might help?

A variation of Lonnie Donegan's paen to the leader would do - "My Old Man's A Toolmaker"?

[robbiealive]

Jun 30, 2024 16:33:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jun 30, 2024 16:26:05 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Oh good another load of old cobblers about propaganda arm of the state.
But as it was you asking.

It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again.

Then police have a primary duty to maintain the peace and individual human rights this would of course include both demonstrators rights to peacefully protest but also to prevent the disruption of airports which would inevitably result in inconvenience and disruption for far more people.

Preventing something illegal happening in the first place is a pretty effective way to avoid both prosecutions and trials.

It wasn’t me asking Steve. My only involvement was that I just said you might be busy. (This may have been in error)


P.s. if Robbie replies, that isn’t me either

1. A very aenior police officers states that JSO are planning actiobs at airports. This is stated as a fact, a certainty, etc. 
2. At the same time  the police arrest a number of people who they declared to be the leaders of JSO -- another stated fact -- on grounds of suspicion to cause disruption at airports. Maybe Steve's right &  they wont come to trial, but maybe they will: my point is simply that the police language, and the implications made about people who are arrested,  should be questioned.
3. And all this arises from an Act passed last year. I was interested to hear the libertarian view. 
4. Steve says: "It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again." Fine. But when the terms used to describe the organisation are exactly the same as those used on the same day when arresting the supposed leaders of the organisation, the overlap between organisational and individual guilt is blatant. 

[mandolinist]

Poster watch

Bristol South, three Green posters, seven Labour posters, 1 Refuk (uck)

Bristol East 4 Green posters, 2 Labour posters Is Kerry Mccarthy in trouble there? Unlikely in my view, but a bit of overspill from Bristol Central I think and a tightening race. The famous road which once had 30 Labour window posters up, had one Green and one Labour, in the same house.

We accidently strayed into Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency, and there spotted 4 Labour and nothing else. These new boundaries meant I hadn't realised which constituency we were in until I saw a poster with the candidates name on.

I finally saw my first poster for Darren Jones in Bristol North West.
That is now all the Bristol constituencies coveredby your roving reporting, tomorrow I will be in Bath, hang on steve I am expecting at least a sighting of a Lim Dem one from there.

Very sadly I have to report that I saw not a single swift, the weather wasn't great for them today, but two of the houses which used to be regular nest sites had scaffolding up.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

French elections latest: Voters surge to polls with highest turnout since 1986 recorded
People are heading to ballot boxes for the first round of parliamentary elections in France, which is the closest it has been to having a far-right government since the Second World War.

news.sky.com/story/french-elections-latest-voters-surge-to-polls-with-highest-turnout-since-1986-recorded-13159394

“Media wait for Bardella's reaction to first exit polls

Our team in Paris is just one of many waiting to hear from Jordan Bardella.

The National Rally's prime ministerial candidate, should it succeed in the snap elections, will make a speech to French and international media after the first exit polls and partial results are released.

Mr Bardella, 28, has been affectionately nicknamed "the lion's cub" by Marine Le Pen, having climbed the party ranks since joining at the age of 16. “


EDIT

Latest voter turnout prediction released
Polls close in less than 15 minutes - and we've just had latest voter turnout prediction from Ipsos.

The multinational market research firm estimates that the participation rate will be 65.5%.

That will be 18 points more than in 2022 and the highest voter turnout since 1997.

"While participation has been declining for 30 years from election to election, the rebound measured today is exceptional," Ipsos said.

[John Chanin]

Jun 30, 2024 12:52:55 GMT ping said:

Canvassing in Kenilworth and Southam: The Fifth and Final Installment

Yesterday morning, eleven of us turned up to canvas some of the roads off the old High Street in Kenilworth. I've always viewed this area as rather "posh"; the old High Street is full of pretty (very occasionally thatched) cottages and independent, boutique shops. At one end is the famous Kenilworth Castle, former home of Robert Dudley and graced several times by the presence of Elizabeth I (well worth a visit if you're in the area).

We split into two groups and went our separate ways. Our candidate felt that there was probably a lot of untapped Labour support in this area and she wasn't wrong. There were quite a few Labour voters and quite a few anti-Tory undecideds who were hopefully leaning towards Labour after we showed them the MRP polls and tactical voting websites. A couple of households actually pointed out to us that the Lib Dem leaflets were based on local not general election data - this and the fewer number of "not interesteds" suggested a slightly more politically engaged area of town. In fact, one street seemed to be caught up in a Labour vs Greens poster war (not a single Lib Dem one to be seen!) We were under instructions to avoid long conversations and only ask about voting intention* so I'm afraid I didn't get the chance to dig into people's political beliefs. One of my fellow canvassers did report a conversation with a Reform voter, who was expressing his fears for the future and saying that all politicians (including Sunak and Starmer) were corrupt. It's no surprise that this cocktail of fear and disenchantment can drive people to vote for the likes of Farage.

After a generally positive experience, we headed off to the Kenilworth Carnival and a nice photo op in front of a carnival banner proclaiming: "FUN FAIR HERE", which we thought summed us up quite well :-D

In the afternoon, some of us went to Rugby to support the efforts in this battleground seat. A fellow canvasser told me afterwards that there had been more enthusiasm for Labour in Rugby than in K&S and fewer undecideds. Demographically, the householders were slightly younger and a little more ethnically diverse. This is consistent with the MRPs showing that Rugby is a lot more winnable than K&S. Out of all the MRPs, only WeThink and Savanta now have Labour gaining K&S so I'm keeping my expectations low, but winning would be the icing on the electoral cake.

Favourite moment: Meeting the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate (whose house just happened to be on our round). I very much enjoyed reading his "Manickfesto" when it landed on my doorstep, especially the section on loony policies that became law (votes for 18 year olds, pet passports and so on).

Anyway, that was my final canvassing session of the campaign. I'll be GOTV-ing on Thursday and will drop a post on here if there's anything worth reporting back (or even if there isn't ;-))

EDIT: *Just to clarify, we didn't ask about voting intention as this is not allowed.  We always ask if people have "decided who they are going to support", and then they often volunteer their voting intention.

I was in Kenilworth on Wednesday, and the poster count (basically in the old Kenilworth area you describe) was Green 3, Labour 2, Liberal 1, Others 0.  Not a high count given that my walk covered quite a distance.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 17:12:20 GMT robbiealive said:

Jun 30, 2024 16:33:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

It wasn’t me asking Steve. My only involvement was that I just said you might be busy. (This may have been in error)


P.s. if Robbie replies, that isn’t me either

1. A very aenior police officers states that JSO are planning actiobs at airports. This is stated as a fact, a certainty, etc. 
2. At the same time  the police arrest a number of people who they declared to be the leaders of JSO -- another stated fact -- on grounds of suspicion to cause disruption at airports. Maybe Steve's right &  they wont come to trial, but maybe they will: my point is simply that the police language, and the implications made about people who are arrested,  should be questioned.
3. And all this arises from an Act passed last year. I was interested to hear the libertarian view. 
4. Steve says: "It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again." Fine. But when the terms used to describe the organisation are exactly the same as those used on the same day when arresting the supposed leaders of the organisation, the overlap between organisational and individual guilt is blatant. 

a tad surreal being the go-between but I’ll deal. Over to you steve !

Jun 30, 2024 16:48:15 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
I understand that the reply wasn't directed at you, I'm not blaming the messenger.

sorry steve , you might say that but I can’t see your post as you are blocked

(not really)

[robbiealive]

Jun 30, 2024 17:46:08 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jun 30, 2024 17:12:20 GMT robbiealive said:

1. A very aenior police officers states that JSO are planning actiobs at airports. This is stated as a fact, a certainty, etc. 
2. At the same time  the police arrest a number of people who they declared to be the leaders of JSO -- another stated fact -- on grounds of suspicion to cause disruption at airports. Maybe Steve's right &  they wont come to trial, but maybe they will: my point is simply that the police language, and the implications made about people who are arrested,  should be questioned.
3. And all this arises from an Act passed last year. I was interested to hear the libertarian view. 
4. Steve says: "It's not an assumption of individual guilt to state that an organisation that has objectively engaged in intentionally disruptive behaviour might do so again." Fine. But when the terms used to describe the organisation are exactly the same as those used on the same day when arresting the supposed leaders of the organisation, the overlap between organisational and individual guilt is blatant. 

a tad surreal being the go-between but I’ll deal. Over to you steve !

Forget it. I'll block Steve & we won;t tangle again, if I can work out how to do it. 

[crossbat11]

Hey Jude...

Football..bloody hell.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 30, 2024 17:48:49 GMT robbiealive said:

Jun 30, 2024 17:46:08 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

a tad surreal being the go-between but I’ll deal. Over to you steve !

Forget it. I'll block Steve & we won;t tangle again, if I can work out how to do it. 

oh. Just when I had found a purpose in life. Anyway, to block someone, click on their username, which takes you to the profile page. In the top right hand corner is a menu button with a cog symbol on it. Click on that, and the menu drops down with a “block member” option.

in the attached graphic below, you can see the menu that I have dropped down to show it. As you can see, you can also send steve a gift should you be so willing. 

Attachments:

[neilj]

England determined to give the fans their moneys worth 😀

[crossbat11]

Ok Arry.

[neilj]

Now they're just showing off

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Far right National Rally leads first voting round - exit polls

France's far right National Rally party was seen leading the first round of parliamentary elections with around 33% of votes, according to exit polls.

Pollsters IFOP, Ipsos, OpinionWay and Elabe found the left wing New Popular Front coalition was seen coming in second with around 28.5%.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc was in the third spot with between 20.5-23%.

In an estimate for BFM TV, Elabe said the National Rally and its allies could win between 360 and 310 parliament seats in the second round of voting on 7 July.

Meanwhile, Ipsos projected a range of 230-280 seats for National Rally and its allies in a poll for France Television.

A total of 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly - France's lower house of parliament.

Sky News

[robbiealive]

That was a bit hard on the nerves. I like England as a sound lot but dunno how you guys stand the tension on a weekly basis. Drama made you realise how boring the election has beem. Hard on the nerves but joyless.

[oldnat]

[domjg]

I love it when England play in international tournaments, time it right as I did today and I get to go for a lovely long, quiet run through deserted streets and lanes meeting barely a soul and hardly any cars. Haven't had one like that since the Italy game in 2021 🙂

[neilj]

Southgate for manager of the year 😀

[leftieliberal]

Jun 30, 2024 17:58:57 GMT crossbat11 said:

Hey Jude...

Football..bloody hell.

I think alec needs to report on excess deaths in England football supporters. It's getting too painful, even when they come from behind to win. They will have to play much better than this to beat Switzerland.

[pjw1961]

French estimates (very close to the last VI polls):

Here are the estimates from IFOP:

Far right National Rally: 34.2%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%
Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 21.5%

Here are the estimates conducted for BFMTV:

Far right National Rally: 33%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%
Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%