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Post by mercian on Jun 30, 2024 12:51:40 GMT
So basically Labour will have a stonking great majority because their leader is slightly less unpopular than the current PM. No wonder people like Galloway and Farage have a following. |
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Post by ping on Jun 30, 2024 12:52:55 GMT
Canvassing in Kenilworth and Southam: The Fifth and Final Installment
Yesterday morning, eleven of us turned up to canvas some of the roads off the old High Street in Kenilworth. I've always viewed this area as rather "posh"; the old High Street is full of pretty (very occasionally thatched) cottages and independent, boutique shops. At one end is the famous Kenilworth Castle, former home of Robert Dudley and graced several times by the presence of Elizabeth I (well worth a visit if you're in the area).
We split into two groups and went our separate ways. Our candidate felt that there was probably a lot of untapped Labour support in this area and she wasn't wrong. There were quite a few Labour voters and quite a few anti-Tory undecideds who were hopefully leaning towards Labour after we showed them the MRP polls and tactical voting websites. A couple of households actually pointed out to us that the Lib Dem leaflets were based on local not general election data - this and the fewer number of "not interesteds" suggested a slightly more politically engaged area of town. In fact, one street seemed to be caught up in a Labour vs Greens poster war (not a single Lib Dem one to be seen!) We were under instructions to avoid long conversations and only ask about voting intention* so I'm afraid I didn't get the chance to dig into people's political beliefs. One of my fellow canvassers did report a conversation with a Reform voter, who was expressing his fears for the future and saying that all politicians (including Sunak and Starmer) were corrupt. It's no surprise that this cocktail of fear and disenchantment can drive people to vote for the likes of Farage.
After a generally positive experience, we headed off to the Kenilworth Carnival and a nice photo op in front of a carnival banner proclaiming: "FUN FAIR HERE", which we thought summed us up quite well :-D
In the afternoon, some of us went to Rugby to support the efforts in this battleground seat. A fellow canvasser told me afterwards that there had been more enthusiasm for Labour in Rugby than in K&S and fewer undecideds. Demographically, the householders were slightly younger and a little more ethnically diverse. This is consistent with the MRPs showing that Rugby is a lot more winnable than K&S. Out of all the MRPs, only WeThink and Savanta now have Labour gaining K&S so I'm keeping my expectations low, but winning would be the icing on the electoral cake.
Favourite moment: Meeting the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate (whose house just happened to be on our round). I very much enjoyed reading his "Manickfesto" when it landed on my doorstep, especially the section on loony policies that became law (votes for 18 year olds, pet passports and so on).
Anyway, that was my final canvassing session of the campaign. I'll be GOTV-ing on Thursday and will drop a post on here if there's anything worth reporting back (or even if there isn't ;-))
EDIT: *Just to clarify, we didn't ask about voting intention as this is not allowed. We always ask if people have "decided who they are going to support", and then they often volunteer their voting intention.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 30, 2024 13:21:45 GMT
So basically Labour will have a stonking great majority because their leader is slightly less unpopular than the current PM. No wonder people like Galloway and Farage have a following. "Slightly" less unpopular? ? ? ? ? They may both be in negative country but Starmer is at least 30% or more better on most of the measures. Or am I reading different figures?? 🤔🤣 P S. I'd be surprised too if either Galloway or Farage score better than either Sunak or Starmer, should similar data be available. |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 30, 2024 13:39:12 GMT
Oops! This was a bit careless.
Not only careless by the candidate or his agent, but also careless by Royal Mail who provide the Electionsort software for addressed Freepost. We may find out that they have not updated it to the current constituency boundaries everywhere. It has been a running sore with agents that Royal Mail does not know where constituency boundaries are or even manage to deliver one unaddressed leaflet to every address in a constituency; I had two Freepost leaflets for my Party delivered to me on consecutive days, while my sister-in-law had an unaddressed leaflet delivered to her house for the next-door constituency. The sooner that Royal Mail is re-nationalised and someone competent put in charge of it the better. I don't think they can even blame not updating the new boundaries. Alva and Airdrie, at around 20 miles apart as the crow flies, would never have been in even neighbouring constituencies. It looks as though someone got as far as "Begins with the same letter, so must be the same constituency." |
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Post by moby on Jun 30, 2024 13:47:06 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 42% (-1)
CON: 20% (-2)
REF: 16% (+3)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 7% (=)
via @wethinkpolling, 27-28 Jun
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Post by mercian on Jun 30, 2024 13:48:26 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 14:07:35 GMT
So basically Labour will have a stonking great majority because their leader is slightly less unpopular than the current PM. No wonder people like Galloway and Farage have a following. "Slightly" less unpopular? ? ? ? ? They may both be in negative country but Starmer is at least 30% or more better on most of the measures. Or am I reading different figures?? 🤔🤣 P S. I'd be surprised too if either Galloway or Farage score better than either Sunak or Starmer, should similar data be available. It’s almost as there is a cunningly concealed inner prejudice at play here from tge usually moderate and sensible mercian. Molto strange… |
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Post by ping on Jun 30, 2024 14:19:49 GMT
So basically Labour will have a stonking great majority because their leader is slightly less unpopular than the current PM. No wonder people like Galloway and Farage have a following. "Slightly" less unpopular? ? ? ? ? They may both be in negative country but Starmer is at least 30% or more better on most of the measures. Or am I reading different figures?? 🤔🤣 P S. I'd be surprised too if either Galloway or Farage score better than either Sunak or Starmer, should similar data be available. Also, we have a parliamentary not presidential system. Even if there isn't a huge difference between the popularity of the party leaders, there might nevertheless be a huge difference in the popularity of their parties/policies. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 14:21:40 GMT
"Slightly" less unpopular? ? ? ? ? They may both be in negative country but Starmer is at least 30% or more better on most of the measures. Or am I reading different figures?? 🤔🤣 P S. I'd be surprised too if either Galloway or Farage score better than either Sunak or Starmer, should similar data be available. Also, we have a parliamentary not presidential system. Even if there isn't a huge difference between the popularity of the party leaders, there might nevertheless be a huge difference in the popularity of their parties/policies. Which, of course, should be fairly obvious to anyone ostensibly interested in an analytical view of politics. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 14:26:23 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 30, 2024 14:38:50 GMT
Not only careless by the candidate or his agent, but also careless by Royal Mail who provide the Electionsort software for addressed Freepost. We may find out that they have not updated it to the current constituency boundaries everywhere. It has been a running sore with agents that Royal Mail does not know where constituency boundaries are or even manage to deliver one unaddressed leaflet to every address in a constituency; I had two Freepost leaflets for my Party delivered to me on consecutive days, while my sister-in-law had an unaddressed leaflet delivered to her house for the next-door constituency. The sooner that Royal Mail is re-nationalised and someone competent put in charge of it the better. I don't think they can even blame not updating the new boundaries. Alva and Airdrie, at around 20 miles apart as the crow flies, would never have been in even neighbouring constituencies. It looks as though someone got as far as "Begins with the same letter, so must be the same constituency." Not my polity, but I can believe anything about errors in Royal Mail, or Post Office, software.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 14:42:10 GMT
In a post debate poll in the U.S.by respected Morning Consult perhaps surprisingly President Biden maintains a poll lead over the criminal the poll actually sees Biden move to a 1% lead obviously within moe from level pegging by morning consult poll before the debate.
Here's their analysis.
While our post-debate survey shows President Joe Biden has lost no immediate ground to Trump, most voters, including a 47% plurality of Democrats, say Biden should be replaced as the Democratic candidate for president.
A clear majority of debate-viewing voters (57%) say Trump performed best on Thursday, including 19% of Democrats, 60% of independents and 93% of Republicans.
The Biden campaign viewed last night’s debate as another opportunity to assuage concerns about his age and mental acuity, but that didn’t work: Among debate viewers, 78% say Biden is too old, compared with 64% of all voters who said the same days before the debate.
In a shift from 2020, voters were slightly more likely to say the debate moderators favored Trump than Biden. "
While Biden was most definitely having a senior moment what he did manage to say was true.
The traitor while more coherent spouted a pack of lies from start to finish and this hasn't gone unnoticed.
Clearly it would have been far better if Biden had performed as well as he did the very next day in an address and it would be better that he withdrew from the re-election race but it wasn't a terminal blow.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 14:51:39 GMT
In the least unpopular contest Ed Triumphs!
"Davey – a recent YouGov poll showed that most Britons couldn’t recognise him when shown his picture, including a third of Lib Dem voters."
This dropped to 5% when he was seen falling off a paddle board.
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Post by mercian on Jun 30, 2024 14:55:07 GMT
"Slightly" less unpopular? ? ? ? ? They may both be in negative country but Starmer is at least 30% or more better on most of the measures. Or am I reading different figures?? 🤔🤣 P S. I'd be surprised too if either Galloway or Farage score better than either Sunak or Starmer, should similar data be available. Also, we have a parliamentary not presidential system. Even if there isn't a huge difference between the popularity of the party leaders, there might nevertheless be a huge difference in the popularity of their parties/policies. Yes of course. I'd be interested to know what Blair's net popularity was just before the 1997 election though, if such questions were asked back then. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 30, 2024 15:03:22 GMT
That's interesting. Thanks. So since the link I gave, which was current on Yougov when I posted it, Farage has dropped 9 points in popularity and Starmer gained 6. Presumably Farage has dropped because of the recent bad publicity. Not quite sure why Starmer has gone up so much. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 30, 2024 15:06:55 GMT
Also, we have a parliamentary not presidential system. Even if there isn't a huge difference between the popularity of the party leaders, there might nevertheless be a huge difference in the popularity of their parties/policies. Which, of course, should be fairly obvious to anyone ostensibly interested in an analytical view of politics. Yes, but I can't think there has ever been an instance of a LOTO with such negative approval ratings leading a party to a landslide GE victory. It is unusual. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 15:13:35 GMT
mercian Blair achieved a net popularity rating just before the 97 general election of around +40% , sustained for two years after entering office. Not seen before or since.
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Post by alec on Jun 30, 2024 15:16:09 GMT
A bit of Sunday light relief; here's a thread of some stunning photographs. Some are visually amazing, some are just fun, but they all took time and patience.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 15:21:07 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 15:25:20 GMT
Crude casual racism against Paleolithic humans - to compare them with Refukkers!
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 30, 2024 15:27:10 GMT
This comes from the official Metropolitan Police Website. We are told that JSO are "planning summer of disruption" at airports. Bold statement as far as I can see that the people who have been arrested are guilty. Aren't the police supposed to wait until people are convicted before declaring their guilt. Police are acting as a propaganda arm of the state. Chief Supt Ian Howells, who led the operation, said: “We know Just Stop Oil are planning to disrupt airports across the country this summer which is why we have taken swift and robust action now."
Why bother with a trial?
Any comment from the site's most prolific poster and Met expert. news.met.police.uk/news/arrests-made-as-just-stop-oil-plan-summer-disruption-485788#:~:text=A%20total%20of%2027%20people,conspire%20to%20disrupt%20national%20infrastructure. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 30, 2024 15:29:10 GMT
mercian Blair achieved a net popularity rating just before the 97 general election of around +40% , sustained for two years after entering office. Not seen before or since. The figures I have seem are a little different but still positive: 24 March 1997 (a month of so before the election): Major 32/59 -27 Blair 51/29 +22 Ashdown 49/21 +28 www.ipsos.com/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1988-1997 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 30, 2024 15:34:01 GMT
We arent bothering with trials. Conservatives have closed courts and dont employ enough judges and lawyers to conduct them, hence the increasing backlog of untried people. Which allows government to restrict the lives of everyone affected either by imprisonment on Remand (although the prisons are now full), or by restrictive bail conditions limiting what they are allowed to do and threat of summary arrest if they fail to abide by them. So presumably someone arrested for protesting could be released on bail on condition they never attend any further meetings of their protest group. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 30, 2024 15:39:15 GMT
For those who lay greater store by betting odds than I do (johntel, Graham etc) this news may be of interest.
The Odds Checker website has the Lib Dems the slight favourites with most bookmakers to win Stratford on Thursday.
Wowsers!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 15:39:24 GMT
Sky News
'Reform candidate disowns party amid racism row - and back Tories
A Reform UK candidate has disowned the party and backs the Conservatives amid a row over racism.
Liam Booth-Isherwood, who was standing in Erewash, said he is suspending his campaign and backing the Tory candidate Maggie Throup to win the seat...
the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the party's leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with'
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Post by alec on Jun 30, 2024 15:40:24 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 15:41:08 GMT
Coming-up later after the football - reflections on canvassing in Clacton constituency.
As a change from delivering yet another load of leaflets in Braintree (targeted ones) yesterday in great heat, and the prospect of more to do on the next two evenings, I fulfilled my promise to Norbold (whose full name I now know!) and took myself off to Clacton, or more accurately, Kirby Le Soken and did a few hours canvassing. I had many interesting discussions, which I will reflect on later, not just on the Clacton situation but with how the Labour and Conservative parties are perceived.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 15:42:22 GMT
By Friday morning, Britain could have its most state-educated cabinet in decades. The shadow cabinet heading into the general election is 77.5% state-educated, with seven out of 31 members having attended fee-paying schools.
That is of course still three times the percentage of fee charging school members as the wider public.But a significant improvement.
If the lib dems form the opposition state school alumni will also account for the vast majority.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 15:45:01 GMT
"We're playing with fire, constantly exposing children to this disease."
What would you suggest lock them up again?
Covid isn't going away any time soon,children are going to be exposed,that's an unavoidable fact, fortunately the overwhelming majority won't come to any significant harm.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 15:48:53 GMT
RAFI looked at those ipsos figures couldn't make head nor tail of them , just took the favourability figure from a graph.
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