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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 30, 2024 9:29:31 GMT
Watching Sunak's last hurrah this morning on the Laura Kuennsberg show, I wondered again about the importance of tone over content in terms of both verbal and visual communication.
I may not be the most impartial of Sunak watchers, so will be interested in the views of others, but while Sunak and his team might be pleased about him getting all his rehearsed attack lines in, I wonder whether he wasted his last chance to get voters to warm to him. He doesn't seem to do human at all, although his words about the racist slur he was victim of recently may be a belated attempt to address that.
Surely though his anti Labour mantras are exhausted now in terms of voter persuasion potential. Isn't this now the time for him, considering the political position in which he now finds himself, to drop the relentless and repetitive attack mode and tetchiness, and show the public another side of himself.
Some contrition maybe, humour and self deprecation too. Likeability is political and electoral gold.
I thought he wasted an opportunity to do that this morning. He seems a one trick pony. Earnestness with a slightly tetchy and aggressive side. Articulate certainly but straying into robotic verbosity.
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Post by hireton on Jun 30, 2024 9:38:51 GMT
New "mega-poll" x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1807343906650034578?s=19"NEW: The first ever mega-poll by @jamesjohnson252 and JL Partners gives Labour 450 seats and a majority of 250. The Tories are reduced to 105 seats. All the details in our live feed here: thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…" |
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Post by mandolinist on Jun 30, 2024 9:56:53 GMT
Another opportunity for me to go on poster watch today. I am off for a visit to my old stamping ground in an area which has previously been in Bristol East, then Bristol South and is now back in Bristol East! There is a road which once had thirty window posters with my name on. . .I still came ignominiously third in that council election. The population has changed a lot, gentrification and house improvements have moved apace so it won't be a like for like comparison, but will be interesting anyway. An additional interest for me will be to see if the local swift colony has survived all the loft extensions, I don't hold out much hope to be honest.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 9:58:57 GMT
We've had mrp and mega polls showing the tory seat numbers ranging from around 50 to 150 and the lib dems from 30 to 70.
They can't all be right.
They could all be wrong.
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norbold
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Post by norbold on Jun 30, 2024 10:12:32 GMT
Watching Sunak's last hurrah this morning on the Laura Kuennsberg show, I wondered again about the importance of tone over content in terms of both verbal and visual communication. I may not be the most impartial of Sunak watchers, so will be interested in the views of others, but while Sunak and his team might be pleased about him getting all his rehearsed attack lines in, I wonder whether he wasted his last chance to get voters to warm to him. He doesn't seem to do human at all, although his words about the racist slur he was victim of recently may be a belated attempt to address that. Surely though his anti Labour mantras are exhausted now in terms of voter persuasion potential. Isn't this now the time for him, considering the political position in which he now finds himself, to drop the relentless and repetitive attack mode and tetchiness, and show the public another side of himself. Some contrition maybe, humour and self deprecation too. Likeability is political and electoral gold. I thought he wasted an opportunity to do that this morning. He seems a one trick pony. Earnestness with a slightly tetchy and aggressive side. Articulate certainly but straying into robotic verbosity. Like you, I am not the most impartial Sunak watcher, but I agree with everything you said. To me he just comes over as techy and actually very unlikeable. I think his attitude is a result of his whole life of privilege and not being used to being challenged. He really doesn't know how to cope with criticism because he's never had to face it before.
It's the same with Farage. He has absolutely no idea how to deal with being challenged because he has also had a privileged upbringing.
Neither are like Starmer, after all his father was a tool maker (so I've been told). |
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Post by ping on Jun 30, 2024 10:13:38 GMT
Tory activists are plotting a rebellion amid rumours of a “stitch-up” that would see a post-election leadership contest cut party members out of the vote, The Telegraph has learned.
Grassroots Conservatives are understood to be furious about the possibility of Rishi Sunak staying on as the leader of the party following a defeat and then changing the rules so that only MPs can elect a new leader – without consulting the membership.
Earlier this week, it emerged that two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest in diluting the voting power of members after criticism of how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.” To be fair to Tory party members, Truss was one of the two options offered up to them by the MPs (gaining nearly a third of the vote share). |
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norbold
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Post by norbold on Jun 30, 2024 10:28:25 GMT
He doesn't seem to do human at all, although his words about the racist slur he was victim of recently may be a belated attempt to address that. Incidentally, just on that point: Attachment Deleted |
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Post by pete on Jun 30, 2024 10:31:47 GMT
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Post by RAF on Jun 30, 2024 10:35:55 GMT
Tory activists are plotting a rebellion amid rumours of a “stitch-up” that would see a post-election leadership contest cut party members out of the vote, The Telegraph has learned.
Grassroots Conservatives are understood to be furious about the possibility of Rishi Sunak staying on as the leader of the party following a defeat and then changing the rules so that only MPs can elect a new leader – without consulting the membership.
Earlier this week, it emerged that two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest in diluting the voting power of members after criticism of how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.” To be fair to Tory party members, Truss was one of the two options offered up to them by the MPs (gaining nearly a third of the vote share). Yes, and I really don't think the way these things have now evolved that any mainstream party will be able to freeze its membership out entirely. The Tories really are in a pickle. If the parliamentary party doesn't allow a populist Right firebrand to be put to the members they may just boycott the vote. Perhaps another way is possible. That the members could draw up a shortlist of 10 names from which the party chooses the leader? |
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Post by jayblanc on Jun 30, 2024 10:40:19 GMT
We've had mrp and mega polls showing the tory seat numbers ranging from around 50 to 150 and the lib dems from 30 to 70. They can't all be right. They could all be wrong. As I've said before MRPs produce a false presentation of accuracy. They don't explain that there's actually a massive range of potential results, instead cherry picking the single 'most likely result' for each individual seat. Aggregating the "most likely" result is simply the result that occurs the most over the entire range of possibilities calculated, it is actually "the most prevalent result" and is not at all to be taken as an accurate prediction in the way it is usually presented. The reality is that the MRPs produce likelihood ranges for each seat, which produces a massive range of results between 50 to 150 seats for the Conservatives when you look at the range of probability rather than "most likely" result. One way this can fail hard is if the 'most prevalent' result is actually just an edge-catching case which snags on an locally optimal situation that does not happen in the vast majority of the probability space. There may be, for instance, a majority of results where the Lib Dems gain more seats than the Conservatives, but looking at the most prevalent result might not tell you this because that specific result might be in a minority where the Conservatives gain more seats than the Lib Dems. MRPs appear to be good at telling you that an election is going to be clearly won or going to be close, and relatively good at predicting the number of seats returned by the winning party, because that will be nature be the largest number of seats for error to be averaged out across. It is much worse at estimating the number of seats won by parties not returning a majority of seats, because that's a smaller number of seats so edge-catching error makes a greater impact. |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 30, 2024 10:56:25 GMT
I don't think anyone thinks that Starmer and Farage are politically similar Ok, if you and others wish to carry on legitimising Farage as a normal mainstream politician and help with his rise I can't stop you. This is not about Starmer by the way - slag him off as much as you like - but don't couple him or any other mainstream politician with Farage. If you look at Farage's long history as the "acceptable" front man of the far right, there is simply no comparison in the danger he represents to society. It is almost the curse of "chapocracy", where for decades, the political landscape, both in the UK and the US (and some other countries too) has been one where even the political opponents may disagree on the details, but are otherwise "good chaps (and chapesses)". Hence many people can't get past the thinking that, deep down, most politicians are fundamentally decent, and will tend to do what they believe is best. People like Trump and Farage (and even, to a lesser extent, Johnson), are far more interested in power for its own sake, and treat social conventions and behavioural standards as merely something that stops them doing what they want. The Washington Post commentariat have already started using the phrase "Dictator On Day One" as the warning to believe Trump when he said that that is what he would be. (The fact it makes for a nice DODO acronym is fortuitous, though I think it will dilute the dire warning that Trump represents). One made the blunt point that while supporters of Biden may be worried about him reaching the next election, supporters of Trump need have no such worries, as there won't be any more elections. The Led by Donkeys piece on Farage shows the kind of person he is, even if it is by inference rather than explicit statement what he is likely to do given sufficient power. Populists start out with "You have problems? I offer solutions". However, either the solutions are unworkable or are quietly shelved. But by then it is too late for voter remorse. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 30, 2024 11:13:25 GMT
He doesn't seem to do human at all, although his words about the racist slur he was victim of recently may be a belated attempt to address that. Incidentally, just on that point: View AttachmentHe also, rather unpleasantly I thought, turned the question about Hester around to make a veiled attack on both Abbott and Labour. Sort of implied Abbott was a contrite racist like Hester and that Labour were weak to take her back. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 11:18:42 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 11:19:12 GMT
Sunday Times endorses Labour ahead of general election
The Sunday Times newspaper has endorsed the Labour party for the election, saying in an editorial that the country needs a “radical reset” after 14 years of Conservative rule.
The newspaper, owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News UK, has backed the Conservatives at every election since 2005 but said on Sunday that the country could not carry on with what it said was now an “exhausted” party.
“We believe it is now the right time for Labour to be entrusted with restoring competence to government,” the editorial said. “There comes a time when change is the only option.”
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 11:27:42 GMT
'Believed to be the first SRP (stacked regression post-stratification) in the UK.
Similar results to the average of MRPs
NEW: JLP SRP model projection in The Sunday Times
🔴 LABOUR: 450 seats
🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 105 seats
🟠 LIB DEM: 55 seats
🟡 SNP: 15 seats
🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 3 seats
🟣 REFORM UK: 2 seats
🟢 GREEN: 1 seat
🟥 LABOUR majority of 250'
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 11:31:22 GMT
For anyone who doesn't know what SRP is, an explanation here
'Stacking regressions is a method for forming linear combinations of different predictors to give improved. prediction accuracy. The idea is to use cross-validation data and least squares under non-negativity constraints. to determine the coefficients in the combination'
Well that's clear then 😀
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 30, 2024 11:33:16 GMT
jayblanc
"MRPs appear to be good at telling you that an election is going to be clearly won or going to be close, and relatively good at predicting the number of seats returned by the winning party, because that will be nature be the largest number of seats for error to be averaged out across"
Agreed.
I can understand why many in England find it hard to comprehend that Labour could get such a huge majority. It's something that is wholly outwith their experience.
But, if you look at Scotland post 2014, it is obvious that FPTP can produce such a huge distortion of democracy where the most popular party can rack up a huge majority (1) of seats, on a minority of votes - if there is no dominant opposition party, and votes against them are splintered over a number of others.
In GB, Labour is clearly the most popular party (c.40% of VI), but the opposition to the right of them share 35% roughly equally. The outcome, in terms of seats, is predictable.
FPTP is the root of all evil!
(1) In 2017, SNP had 37% of the vote and 35 seats : The next 2 parties shared 56% of the vote and 20 seats. The SNP's overall majority of MPs in Scotland would equate to a majority over all other parties of 130 at Westminster.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 11:33:52 GMT
Implied vote share for the JLP SRP
🔴 LABOUR: 38%
🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 22%
🟣 REFORM UK: 17%
🟠 LIB DEM: 13%
🟢 GREEN: 5%
🟡 SNP: 3%
🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 1%
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 30, 2024 11:35:21 GMT
Oops! This was a bit careless.
Not only careless by the candidate or his agent, but also careless by Royal Mail who provide the Electionsort software for addressed Freepost. We may find out that they have not updated it to the current constituency boundaries everywhere. It has been a running sore with agents that Royal Mail does not know where constituency boundaries are or even manage to deliver one unaddressed leaflet to every address in a constituency; I had two Freepost leaflets for my Party delivered to me on consecutive days, while my sister-in-law had an unaddressed leaflet delivered to her house for the next-door constituency. The sooner that Royal Mail is re-nationalised and someone competent put in charge of it the better. |
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Post by alec on Jun 30, 2024 11:45:23 GMT
Posterwatch: Major developments here. Conservatives appear likely to receive at least one vote from the villages, as a single Teesdale resident erects a blue poster. That's up
against seven new reds, so it's something like 25:1 here, no other runners noted.
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Post by RAF on Jun 30, 2024 11:57:04 GMT
He also, rather unpleasantly I thought, turned the question about Hester around to make a veiled attack on both Abbott and Labour. Sort of implied Abbott was a contrite racist like Hester and that Labour were weak to take her back. The Tories in this overall Parliament (2019-2024), have shown their defining feature to be exceptionalism. Rishi was outraged by the racist slur of the Reform activist as: (a) it affected his family directly; and (b) it was made by someone from a rival party. He couldn't care less about the issue generally when it affects those he considers beneath his standing in the natural order of things. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 12:02:03 GMT
I regret to say that, having seen the headlines which say that Labour are planning to wreck the economy and will bankrupt every family in 100 days, I feel forced to vote Tory and restore integrity in our political environment.
Must say I am cross and angry that this has not been disclosed by the Labour Party
Fucking sneaky, as my Granny would have said.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 12:12:30 GMT
FPTP is the root of all evil!
and poorly-designed letterboxes |
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Post by RAF on Jun 30, 2024 12:16:19 GMT
FPTP is the root of all evil!
and poorly-designed letterboxes Ah, that would make it the square root of all evil. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 12:17:48 GMT
More in Common Scotland Our final Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 x.com/LukeTryl/status/1807369964921249801Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 12:21:23 GMT
JLP Scotland (remarkably similar to above)
🔴Labour 35% (+16)
🟡Scottish National Party 30% (-15)
🔵Conservatives 12% (-13)
🟠Liberal Democrats 10% (NC)
🟣 Reform UK 9% (+9)
🟢Green Party 3% (+2)
Dates: 7th - 25th June
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Post by graham on Jun 30, 2024 12:29:06 GMT
I regret to say that, having seen the headlines which say that Labour are planning to wreck the economy and will bankrupt every family in 100 days, I feel forced to vote Tory and restore integrity in our political environment. Must say I am cross and angry that this has not been disclosed by the Labour Party Fucking sneaky, as my Granny would have said. I have reluctantly decided to follow your example at this election. i was finally persuaded by a loudspeaker van touring the area this morning sending out the very loud message 'Take leave of your senses on July 4th. Vote Conservative!.' |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 12:32:22 GMT
"I regret to say that, having seen the headlines which say that Labour are planning to wreck the economy and will bankrupt every family in 100 days, I feel forced to vote Tory and restore integrity in our political environment.
Must say I am cross and angry that this has not been disclosed by the Labour Party
Fucking sneaky, as my Granny would have said."
Indeed and spare a thought for those obsessed by immigration as the Starmerites are about to make the entire population of Pakistan come over here steal our jobs, eat all our curries, while claiming all our benefits and occupying all our travel lodges.
Brexitania will tip over and sink below the North Atlantic under the weight.
Xenophobes will have no choice but to emigrate.
I understand Batakundi is nice this time of year and as the entire population will be staying in the Travel lodge in canvey island, plenty of space
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 12:39:47 GMT
Indeed and spare a thought for those obsessed by immigration as the Starmerites are about to make the entire population of Pakistan come over here steal our jobs, eat all our curries, while claiming all our benefits and occupying all our travel lodges. There is also the phenomenon, which does not seem to get much attention, whereby children of immigrants might create their own job, but natives want to take it off you and give it to their mates, who weren’t able to figure out how to create their own post. Then when their mates can’t do it (because you didn’t create a job that was piss-easy to do), they want you to train up their mate to be able to do it. (When you decline this wonderful offer, they can get a little bit annoyed…) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 12:48:22 GMT
 The stable genius and possessor of" a brain" |
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