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Post by mercian on Jun 29, 2024 22:34:45 GMT
Northern Ireland's population is 2.7% of the UK population, Plaid is typically around 0.6% in GB polls, so that's over 3% of your 5% straightaway. Given the people/groups you highlighted in bold got about 3.3% of the vote in 2019 that suggests that 5% as a mathematical *minimum* is oddly high for them now? It feels like either the way the poll has been reported is not quite right (and we've seen that before, to be fair!) or they're picking up an unusually high amount of voting for Independents/Others? Possibly the Muslim Independents? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:37:37 GMT
Thanks to eor and crossbat11 for recent posts on USA and UK politics respectively. Those rare nuggets are the reason I still visit the site. Thinking of how ludicrous our political system is, can someone advise how many UK constituencies are won with less than 50% of the vote? Paul Thanks for that Paul. I saw several people have given links, but the direct answer to your question is 229 constituencies were won with less than 50% of the vote share in the 2019 GE. As might be expected due to number of parties involved, that figure includes most of the seats in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and the majority of the seats in Wales. The Tories won 85 of them and Labour 82 in 2019, and for what it's worth the Tories were second in almost all of those Labour seats. More mixed picture for the Tory seats - Labour second in the majority of them but LD second in 20 of them and SNP in 5. Thanks eor. I’m not sure how to find this out but imagine that very few seats are won by a candidate with over 50% support from the eligible electorate - rather than actual voters? Looking at the Biden situation there seems to be a real panic amongst normally hard-core Biden supporters in the media. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. To quote Shakespeare (who never quotes me) then if he is to stand down as candidate “then 'twere well it were done quickly”. |
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Post by eor on Jun 29, 2024 22:48:55 GMT
Final Call polls for the French parliamentary elections are in, and as usual they are very consistent to each other. Whilst I've been suspicious of herding in the past, their performance in recent years in terms of predicting vote share has been remarkably good, so I make no such insinuations this time! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_French_legislative_electionvEssentially they have Le Pen (and the smaller part of the ROC split) at about 36-37%, the Left alliance at about 28-29% and Macron's party at about 21%. It's a run-off system, if you get 50% of the electorate (not the turnout) in round 1 then you're the MP, otherwise it's the top 2 candidates in a revote next Sunday (it can be more than two if the vote is split evenly enough and the turnout is very high, but usually it'll be two). The seat projections suggest that Le Pen's party will have the most seats, followed by the Left alliance, with Macron's party squeezed to maybe fewer than 100 seats, but what I don't understand, mostly because I don't speak enough French, is how fine the margins are. It makes sense that if Macron's guys finish second in a seat then they'll have a pretty decent chance of winning it against either the Left alliance or Le Pen in the run-off, that's kinda what his whole success has been built on. But at the same time, if they keep coming in third everywhere by a small margin and never get to the run-off round then they're going to be irrelevant. So whilst I think the VI is likely to prove pretty accurate, I can't comment on how much margin there could be in the run-off combinations, and from that the final seat shares. What I would say is that I was watching French TV when they did the exit poll last time, that showed Le Pen likely to get 80ish MPs, and there was evident, visceral shock. Despite the fair analyses on here about how certain Le Pen positions have been moderated over time, to more fully absorb the ROC vote and so on, don't underestimate how dramatic the reaction is going to be if the exit poll shows Le Pen has actually won |
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Post by mercian on Jun 29, 2024 22:59:45 GMT
Thanks for that Paul. I saw several people have given links, but the direct answer to your question is 229 constituencies were won with less than 50% of the vote share in the 2019 GE. As might be expected due to number of parties involved, that figure includes most of the seats in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and the majority of the seats in Wales. The Tories won 85 of them and Labour 82 in 2019, and for what it's worth the Tories were second in almost all of those Labour seats. More mixed picture for the Tory seats - Labour second in the majority of them but LD second in 20 of them and SNP in 5. Thanks eor . I’m not sure how to find this out but imagine that very few seats are won by a candidate with over 50% support from the eligible electorate - rather than actual voters? Looking at the Biden situation there seems to be a real panic amongst normally hard-core Biden supporters in the media. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. To quote Shakespeare (who never quotes me) then if he is to stand down as candidate “then 'twere well it were done quickly”. You are a lazy so-and-so. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_electionBy multiplying share by turnout I think there are just 5 - all Labour seats. Liverpool Walton is best with 55.1%. The others are Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby. All in or around Liverpool, which explains a lot. |
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Post by eor on Jun 29, 2024 23:02:32 GMT
Thanks for that Paul. I saw several people have given links, but the direct answer to your question is 229 constituencies were won with less than 50% of the vote share in the 2019 GE. As might be expected due to number of parties involved, that figure includes most of the seats in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and the majority of the seats in Wales. The Tories won 85 of them and Labour 82 in 2019, and for what it's worth the Tories were second in almost all of those Labour seats. More mixed picture for the Tory seats - Labour second in the majority of them but LD second in 20 of them and SNP in 5. Thanks eor . I’m not sure how to find this out but imagine that very few seats are won by a candidate with over 50% support from the eligible electorate - rather than actual voters?Looking at the Biden situation there seems to be a real panic amongst normally hard-core Biden supporters in the media. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. To quote Shakespeare (who never quotes me) then if he is to stand down as candidate “then 'twere well it were done quickly”. I put that in a separate column cos I wasn't sure which you might mean  the answer to that is only 8 seats were won with 50% of the registered electorate. Tho the caveat there will be that the registered electorate will always contain a significant number of people who have moved away, and some who have died. Yeah, there's definitely a media freakout on Biden, but... to be cynical, they have to sell media. "Polls unchanged, little of consequence happened" is a shit story to sell. "New York Times Calls On Biden To Stand Aside After Debate Disaster" is a truly dramatic news story that gets people rushing to the NYT website, when in reality if Biden doesn't step aside there is no chance in hell that the NYT are going to do anything other than back him in November anyway. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 29, 2024 23:12:45 GMT
eorWhat were the three seats that I couldn't find?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 29, 2024 23:14:40 GMT
I remember when Nixon (for dramatically different reasons!) was being pushed to quit, his family and closest advisers, who also thought that he should, were insistent that the pressure was counter-productive. They had to support and protect him and his self-image, until he came to the right conclusion.
I wonder if the same is happening within the Biden entourage.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 23:17:11 GMT
eor What were the three seats that I couldn't find? You are a lazy so-and-so. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 29, 2024 23:18:20 GMT
Oops! This was a bit careless.
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Post by eor on Jun 29, 2024 23:21:38 GMT
eor What were the three seats that I couldn't find? I got; Bootle Garston and Halewood Knowsley Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, West Derby Maldon Rayleigh and Wickford Walthamstow |
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Post by eor on Jun 29, 2024 23:24:19 GMT
(I realise that's nine seats not eight, and straight away we're into what time of night it is ) |
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Post by mercian on Jun 29, 2024 23:33:24 GMT
eor What were the three seats that I couldn't find? I got; Bootle Garston and Halewood Knowsley Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, West Derby Maldon Rayleigh and Wickford Walthamstow Quite right, I missed those because I didn't go far enough down the list. So 9 altogether (not 8). And one of the ones I missed was in the Liverpool area, so 6 of the 9 are either in Liverpool or nearby, and were all Labour. Walthamstow was also Labour. The other two were in Essex and both Tory. Interesting. EDIT: Time for bed said Zebedee. |
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Post by reggieside on Jun 30, 2024 0:04:56 GMT
eor What were the three seats that I couldn't find? I got; Bootle Garston and Halewood Knowsley Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, West Derby Maldon Rayleigh and Wickford Walthamstow Mornington Crescent! |
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Post by ptarmigan on Jun 30, 2024 1:12:47 GMT
You will be aware Starmer has spent the last two days clarifying and semi-apologising over that: "Defending the comments on Thursday, Sir Keir said he was trying to give an example of a safe country where a returns agreement is in place - but people aren't being sent back because their asylum claims are not being processed. He told broadcasters: "The reference in the debate the other day was an example of a country that is considered safe as far as asylum is concerned, and one of the countries that's actually got a returns agreement with us, and that is actually a good thing where both we and Bangladesh can be proud of." "I certainly wasn't intending to cause any concern or offence to any Bangladeshi community here." He said he values the relationship and the contribution of the Bangladeshi community in Britain, adding: "They've made a massive contribution to our economy, to our culture and to our country. That's why there's always been a longstanding and strong relationship between Labour and the Bangladeshi community here. "It's why my first trip as a Labour MP was to Bangladesh, where I saw for myself the strength of the country, the hospitality and warmth of the country. I've got many Bangladeshi constituents in my own constituency who I've been working with for many years, and I want to build on that in government." news.sky.com/story/starmer-says-he-meant-no-offence-to-bangladeshi-community-over-deportation-comments-13159889However, I will say the same to you as to Graham - anyone who can't see the difference between the danger to the democratic values of this country represented by Farage and Starmer's moderate centrism has lost the plot. They are not even in the same ballpark and it lets Farage off the hook to make the comparison. Stopping the growth of right-wing nationalism in this country is too important for petty point scoring. I don't think anyone thinks that Starmer and Farage are politically similar - the contention was simply that they are comparable in terms of their relationship with the truth. I don't think that's a particularly controversial or inflammatory claim. Starmer's clarifications and apologies ring a bit hollow given Jonathan Ashworth was doing the media rounds the other day and also explicitly mentioned Bangladesh. He was also going on about asylum seekers living in hotels "for the rest of their lives". Labour are definitely dogwhistling on immigration. Can't seem to embed the tweet for some reason but here's the link |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 4:37:38 GMT
If the Tory client media wanted to save some Tory seats they would currently be focussing their attention on the faragist refukers.
But No .
Because most actually quite like the concept of a return to 1960's values including casual racism and bigotry, the main supporters in the press instead are choosing to focus on some total load of old cobblers from Sunakered about a Starmer led government bringing in the end times within 100 days. Given that the Tories have spent the last 5170 days making things worse it's an interesting concept to pursue.
Meanwhile the Scum has decided that a "what election" approach is best in order that they can't be accused of being "the Sun what lost it" and are focusing on the millionaire kick ball competition instead.
I suspect Starmer's history with these outlets just makes it too difficult for them to acknowledge the writing in ten metre tall neon letters on the wall that come Friday morning it's Prime minister Starmer.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 30, 2024 5:23:16 GMT
Latest Sky News Poll Tracker
Labour on a 20-point lead over the Conservatives.
Lab 40.3 (37-43)
Con 20.2 (15-25)
Reform 16.3 (13-21)
Lib Dems 11.4 (9-13)
Green 6.1 (4-9)
SNP 2.9 (2-5)
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 5:53:12 GMT
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Post by alec on Jun 30, 2024 6:43:36 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "photo of a neuron exploding with sarscov2 (which I find only very alarming)" Indeed. I continue to find it really surprising that the public and policy makers continue to glide past the science on how covid affects the brain, and instead of looking to appreciate the scale of risk, spend their time inventing much less threatening terms like 'brain fog', which is basic linguistic code for brain damage. The image you showed was from Dr Daniella Beckman, who is part of a team from California who have spent 4 years imaging brains to study what covid does, and their results are really quite shocking. As you show, we actually have visual confirmation of the large scale death of brain cells, which go alongside the measured observations that IQ and executive reasoning are significantly impaired after infection, even if asymptomatic, with much of this damage remaining evidence at least two years after infection. It's markedly different from 'flu, where we also have measured observations, when some brain impacts can been seen less frequently, but these tend to be less severe and repair within a matter of weeks. Alongside all of this, we have ample epidemiological data showing sharp increases in a wide range of mental health issues and neuro degenerative diseases linked to infection history. Memory loss is closely associated with covid infection too, and I'm wondering if part of this is people forgetting how they used to be.....
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 7:03:43 GMT
alec Brain fog isn't a linguistic code for brain damage unless you include fully recoverable. As a direct example some of the medication I was on after a viral heart condition a few years ago produced " brain fog" my brain wasn't damaged and after I stopped the medication the brain fog dissipated. The brain damage I suffered as a result of an injury on duty decades ago will never improve , fortunately it's not that significant. While there is evidence that brain fog is for some a long term symptom of covid it's too early to say if this is permanent there is evidence I've provided a link that in general they do improve over time, which is gratifying. Perhaps you might also like to consider that those self identifying with long covid symptoms tend to be in the older age cohort where normal irreversible age related cognitive decline would be expect anyway. www.frontiersin.org/journals/human-neuroscience/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2023.1259660/full
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 7:24:13 GMT
Morning all: bit of gossip about future leadership from the Telegraph…
“Tory activists are plotting a rebellion amid rumours of a “stitch-up” that would see a post-election leadership contest cut party members out of the vote, The Telegraph has learned.
Grassroots Conservatives are understood to be furious about the possibility of Rishi Sunak staying on as the leader of the party following a defeat and then changing the rules so that only MPs can elect a new leader – without consulting the membership.
Earlier this week, it emerged that two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest in diluting the voting power of members after criticism of how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
It comes as the Popular Conservatives group, a movement founded by Ms Truss and other prominent Tories on the Right of the party, has begun planning for the party’s post-election future.
The organisation has sent out hundreds of invitations to activists for an event called “After July 4: What happens next?”, promising a “stellar” line-up of Tory speakers.
It is likely to be seen as the first round of leadership hustings, with event organisers acknowledging that it is “not impossible” that it will end up that way.”
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 7:30:51 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "photo of a neuron exploding with sarscov2 (which I find only very alarming)" Indeed. I continue to find it really surprising that the public and policy makers continue to glide past the science on how covid affects the brain… Well, they seem to glide past a lot. They weren’t exactly prepared for the pandemic in the first place. Another worse pandemic is still quite the risk, while the hazards of asteroids, biotech, gamma ray bursts, food collapse, Gulf Stream stopping, AI, and of course the grey goo scenario do not get as much attention as they might. Can’t imagine Sunak sitting at his desk worryimg about these things. (He’s sat there trying to cope with getting the flag the wrong way round…) |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 30, 2024 7:35:32 GMT
Morning all: bit of gossip about future leadership from the Telegraph… “ Tory activists are plotting a rebellion amid rumours of a “stitch-up” that would see a post-election leadership contest cut party members out of the vote, The Telegraph has learned.
Grassroots Conservatives are understood to be furious about the possibility of Rishi Sunak staying on as the leader of the party following a defeat and then changing the rules so that only MPs can elect a new leader – without consulting the membership.
Earlier this week, it emerged that two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest in diluting the voting power of members after criticism of how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
It comes as the Popular Conservatives group, a movement founded by Ms Truss and other prominent Tories on the Right of the party, has begun planning for the party’s post-election future.
The organisation has sent out hundreds of invitations to activists for an event called “After July 4: What happens next?”, promising a “stellar” line-up of Tory speakers.
It is likely to be seen as the first round of leadership hustings, with event organisers acknowledging that it is “not impossible” that it will end up that way.” An oxymoron surely? Unless they meant this?  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 7:35:47 GMT
I don't think anyone thinks that Starmer and Farage are politically similar - the contention was simply that they are comparable in terms of their relationship with the truth. I don't think that's a particularly controversial or inflammatory claim. bed the tweet for some reason but here's the link Comparing politicians and indeed parties is a big part of what we do anyway, because that’s what polling does. It explicitly compares them on many things, including on how trusted they are, so considering things like how much they tell the truth is a normal thing to do. . …
The organisation has sent out hundreds of invitations to activists for an event called “After July 4: What happens next?”, promising a “stellar” line-up of Tory speakers.
….
An oxymoron surely? at least they put it in quotes |
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Post by pete on Jun 30, 2024 7:35:49 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 30, 2024 7:41:37 GMT
… The Tories are circulating leaflets in some LibDem target seats with false claims of Labour being the only party that can challenge them. Yep, cuckoo politics comes to the fore during elections. It’s the same with the leaflets, which can hide almost any mention of their party etc |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 30, 2024 8:14:12 GMT
However, I will say the same to you as to Graham - anyone who can't see the difference between the danger to the democratic values of this country represented by Farage and Starmer's moderate centrism has lost the plot. They are not even in the same ballpark and it lets Farage off the hook to make the comparison. Stopping the growth of right-wing nationalism in this country is too important for petty point scoring. I don't think anyone thinks that Starmer and Farage are politically similar - the contention was simply that they are comparable in terms of their relationship with the truth. I don't think that's a particularly controversial or inflammatory claim. Ok, if you and others wish to carry on legitimising Farage as a normal mainstream politician and help with his rise I can't stop you. This is not about Starmer by the way - slag him off as much as you like - but don't couple him or any other mainstream politician with Farage. If you look at Farage's long history as the "acceptable" front man of the far right, there is simply no comparison in the danger he represents to society. |
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Post by alec on Jun 30, 2024 8:16:46 GMT
steve - "Perhaps you might also like to consider that those self identifying with long covid symptoms tend to be in the older age cohort where normal irreversible age related cognitive decline would be expect anyway." Actually, no, this is not true. It was initially assumed to be a factor related to age, and for example, children were not susceptible to long covid etc etc, but research has proven this to be incorrect. If anything, older people actually have less likelihood of developing long covid, and children develop it at a rate similar to adults, once you actually start to look for it, rather than assume they can't have it. Here's one study of many that points in this direction - www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-38315-2I would also disagree with your characterisation of the use of brain fog. The type of observed neurological damage that is associated with brain fog is most usually termed neurological impairment, brain damage, or similar, where the cause is not covid. Where the effects and symptoms are thought to be related to covid, it's routinely dismissed as brain fog. Data now suggests the damage is more or less permanent, with no sign of recovery in the majority of cases over a period extending beyond 4 years. Studies on SARS1 patients found zero evidence of recovery (and in contrast, a significant increase in new onset neurological conditions) over an 18 year follow up study. We obviously can't say for certain that the damage is permanent, but the current indications are that a substantial proportion of it will be more or less permanent.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 8:32:29 GMT
Liar liar short trousers on fire
"It’s clear that Labour would do irreversible damage within just 100 days of coming to power.
Whether it’s announcing a suite of tax rises or throwing thousands of families’ plans for the autumn term into chaos, with children wondering if they will have a desk at school to go back to.
Labour would throw open our borders with their illegal migrant amnesty and free movement for under-30s in their deal with the EU, making us the soft touch migrant capital of the world.
They cannot be trusted. We must not surrender our taxes, our borders and our security to them. Only the Conservatives will deliver tax cuts, a growing economy and a brighter, more secure future for everyone."
Wish I Sunakered
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 8:37:56 GMT
"Actually, no, this is not true"
Are you saying there's no such thing as age related cognitive decline!
Joe Biden!
"Data now suggests the damage is more or less permanent, with no sign of recovery in the majority of cases over a period extending beyond 4 years."
Best you contact the scientists involved in the research paper I provided a link to and tell them they've got it wrong.
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jun 30, 2024 8:39:00 GMT
If the Tory client media wanted to save some Tory seats they would currently be focussing their attention on the faragist refukers. It would appear that the Conservatives are feeling somewhat spurned by their former Russian lover !
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the answer to that is only 8 seats were won with 50% of the registered electorate. Tho the caveat there will be that the registered electorate will always contain a significant number of people who have moved away, and some who have died. 
