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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 17, 2024 9:21:44 GMT
#bbclaurak: Let me remind people what's happened to Council Tax since the Tories have been in charge.. people are paying 51% more in cash terms.. & CT is going up by £10b in the next 5 years Mark Harper: Tories have lower CT LK: The overall CT bill is lower in Labour councils x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1802272198750556585Blimey! It's all over for the Tories when even Laura won't let them lie unchallenged any more. I've always been an admirer of Laura Kuennsberg. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 9:23:02 GMT
@crofty, I am really sorry you have had a night of flooding, I hope it is now sorted and the clean up isn't too ghastly. Thinking of you. Thanks Mando….I did try to keep in mind that, throughout the world, other people are suffering far, far worse than getting wet. Worst thing was simply not having a clue how to stop it and taking ages to come up with a method to collect and dispense of the water. Anyway, as ole Hank Williams sang “We’re still livin’ so everything’s okay.” |
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Post by johntel on Jun 17, 2024 9:23:03 GMT
I was in Lewes yesterday and saw at lest half a dozen professional looking posters in windows saying "Green but voting tactically for Lib Dem" and "Labour but voting tactically for Lib Dem". Whether they were put up by genuine Green/Labour supporters I don't know - maybe one of you activists would know?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 9:23:41 GMT
Another truck load of somewhat verbose anti-BBC comments his morning from several posters. My previous pleas for a more balanced and context-bound approach to BBC's election and political coverage have fallen on deaf ears. Bit pompous. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 17, 2024 9:23:43 GMT
@fecklessmiser - sorry to hear about your flooding. Is that a plumbing issue, or the recent rainfall? Didn't know where stop valve was and when engineer (from Saltburn) eventually got to us around 1 am and did so, it was in such a tight confined space and just a narrow gap underneath the sink unit, I’m not sure I could have found it anyway - especially with water gushing onto me as it was when I was looking. Yes, I had a problem with an inaccessible stop tap so had another in-line valve fitted which uses air pressure to shut off the water supply. It looks like an oversized electrical switch and is connected to the valve by about half a metre of tubing. The switch is mounted under the sink at the front. I also have the special tool to turn off the water at the stopcock in a hole in the pavement outside my house (a large pair of pliers would do the job, but I got it just after I moved in nearly 40 years ago). |
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 9:24:39 GMT
Sunak tops tactical voting hit listBest for Britain are making recommendations in 452 seats recommending with(sic) 370 for Labour, 69 for the Lib Dems, seven for the SNP, three for the Greens and two for Plaid Cymru.
In Clacton they are recommending a vote for Labour to stop Reform UK’s Nigel Farage. I'm glad to hear it!
Our latest canvassing does seem to indicate that the Tory vote is collapsing and mostly going to Frogface, though we have picked up some as well. I would say, at the moment, it is definitely between Labour and RFUK Ltd.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 17, 2024 9:29:16 GMT
According to polling Fargage is leading in Clacton - but with only 32% of the vote - and this is in their strongest seat. I dont think he is nailed on to win it and it does very much indicate that their is a pretty low ceiling on the ReFuk vote - probably around 15% of the overall vote. Depsite HUGE coverage and excitement from the media at the prospect of Fargae floating back up the poltical U-bend the REfk polling is - argaubly - somewhat underwhelming - and may well fall back "cleggmania" style come polling day. Hes hardly a new, fresh exciting figure - and their great populist cause - Brexit - has hardly been a triumph. TBH - ugly dog whistle racis aside - Brexit is the issue where farages feet should be held to fire. I share that view. It is worth noting that Carswell got almost 60% for UKIP in the 2014 by-election and 44% in the 2015 GE (I recognise the boundaries were different), so Farage is well short of that. There is clearly a market for Farage's brand of populist dog-whistle racism, but I agree 15% probably maxes that out and it will be fairly evenly spread across England and Wales. Without the relative appeal of the anti-EU policy (and even that now massively tarnished by reality) it is hard to see a big breakthrough under FPTP for Reform. I expect the Conservatives to out-poll them in real votes by around two to one. |
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bardin1
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 17, 2024 9:29:30 GMT
I tend to be a little ambivalent when long standing, almost founding member, posters are ushered away from the site. It would be humbug to claim I miss some of them but, then again, it's not for me to select who posts and, where the absence is enforced, it may well be that they are deprived from doing something that is both enjoyable and important for them. I suppose it depends on how preoccupied they are with posting here. Some may be to almost unhealthy levels but I get the impression that most of us dally here for periodic amusement and distraction and have pretty full lives elsewhere. But what if Danny is different and this was an important part of his life? As some of have already said, he posted with extraordinary frequency and at great length. Some of what he contributed had merit but he was increasingly straying into areas that were clearly offensive to many and accordingly was driving some people away. If his short term absence allows those people to feel able to return, then that is clearly a good thing. Maybe the answer is for Danny to return on probation and he is compelled to post only on certain subjects. If he fails to heed the restrictions then he gets the permanent red card. I'm by nature a live and let live man and intuitively anti-censorious. Clearly there must be bounds of decency and good taste on here, but, then again, we're not obliged to read other posters contributions. We all have the licence to ignore others completely and many of us do! One of Danny's curiosities, and strengths ironically, was his consistent refusal to personally abuse other posters and the even-tempered cordiality he always maintained when on the receiving end of sometimes quite vitriolic attacks. In that rather endearing way, his saving grace and redeeming feature I think, he probably taught us all a lesson or two. If there was ever a poster who always played the ball and not the man, it was Danny. His problem was his oddball bag of increasingly disturbing fixations. That's a very good post and one which I agree with whole-heartedly. I agree re his way of not engaging personally. As someone with a son on the spectrum and a wife who set up an autism charity and works mainly with autistic young men I am used to a similar way of communicating amongst some of my contacts. He did indeed fixate on certain topics. I found myself close a couple of times to being personally critical of him in the early days of covid when he posted some quite offensive views on herd immunity etc. However even when a couple of my posts obliquely ridiculed his views he did not respond in kind or with any emotional comeback. I decided at that point only to engage on matters of fact and without any emotional loading. The statements he made recently were of a similar ilk, and certainly merited moderator action. If he comes back I hope some clear guidance to him could alert him to the impact of some of these statements. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 17, 2024 9:33:59 GMT
According to polling Fargage is leading in Clacton - but with only 32% of the vote - and this is in their strongest seat. I dont think he is nailed on to win it and it does very much indicate that their is a pretty low ceiling on the ReFuk vote - probably around 15% of the overall vote. Depsite HUGE coverage and excitement from the media at the prospect of Fargae floating back up the poltical U-bend the REfk polling is - argaubly - somewhat underwhelming - and may well fall back "cleggmania" style come polling day. Hes hardly a new, fresh exciting figure - and their great populist cause - Brexit - has hardly been a triumph. TBH - ugly dog whistle racis aside - Brexit is the issue where farages feet should be held to fire. I share that view. It is worth noting that Carswell got almost 60% for UKIP in the 2014 by-election and 44% in the 2015 GE (I recognise the boundaries were different), so Farage is well short of that. There is clearly a market for Farage's brand of populist dog-whistle racism, but I agree 15% probably maxes that out and it will be fairly evenly spread across England and Wales. Without the relative appeal of the anti-EU policy (and even that now massively tarnished by reality) it is hard to see a big breakthrough under FPTP for Reform. I expect the Conservatives to out-poll them in real votes by around two to one. Carswell was, of course, the sitting MP, and, for some reason that escapes me, was quite popular as a local personality at the time. Also, the new ward boundary I think would tend to be better for RFUK Ltd as it has taken in a wider rural area. |
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Post by eotw on Jun 17, 2024 9:43:22 GMT
For those who feel the need of advice on tactical voting, this website from best for Britain will be up and running from 10am this morning. www.getvoting.orgIs this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool? I live in the new "Melksham and Devizes" constituency , my old MP was the delightful Danny Kruger. It appears to be a genuine 3 way marginal and I am seriously conflicted on how to vote. If it was the old Devizes constituency, which would return anyone in a blue rosette then I would vote Green to express my disgust at the lack of action on combating climate change. As I still hadn't forgiven Labour for the Iraq war, I voted Lib Dem in 2010 - of course the wet Tory Claire Perry won anyway - I felt completely betrayed by the Lib Dems in coalition. So do risk betrayal and vote LD or go for it and vote Labour? Or go with my heart and vote Green |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 17, 2024 9:43:39 GMT
BBC bias is a frequent topic on here, but here is some research on it in the form of who has been invited on to Question Time over the last decade. To test how this is applied to Question Time, our researchers compiled a dataset of all editions of the programme from September 2014 until July 2023 – a total of 352 programmes with 1,734 guest slots across the nine seasons, filled by 661 different people.
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Removing politicians from the list of most frequent guests shows that several high-frequency panellists are being used, most of whom come from the political right. The regularly featured journalists are typically opinion columnists who contribute to rightwing press outlets such as the Mail or the Telegraph, or who make appearances on right-leaning broadcasters like GB News and TalkTV.
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The commitment to due impartiality can indeed mean that impartiality occurs over time – but the evidence does not demonstrate Question Time is achieving this. Instead, it may be sacrificing the BBC’s reputation for impartiality to create provocative programmes. |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jun 17, 2024 9:47:19 GMT
Farage on the Today programme, what a start to the morning. I can't understand why the media in general and the BBC in particular don't push him at all to explain how his policies would work. Something along the lines of: If you want to fund the promised tax cuts by cutting benefits, which ones would you cut? The State Pension is the most expensive, will you start there? Unemployment benefit is under £100 a week, is that to be cut? Children are living in absolute poverty, would you make cuts there? What about benefits for forces veterans? Other disabled people? Carers allowance? Go on Farage, explain who you would push into penury. The journalists can thank me later! not forgetting his stated preference for replacing the NHS with a US style private health insurance system. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 17, 2024 9:49:07 GMT
According to polling Fargage is leading in Clacton - but with only 32% of the vote - and this is in their strongest seat. I dont think he is nailed on to win it and it does very much indicate that their is a pretty low ceiling on the ReFuk vote - probably around 15% of the overall vote. Depsite HUGE coverage and excitement from the media at the prospect of Fargae floating back up the poltical U-bend the REfk polling is - argaubly - somewhat underwhelming - and may well fall back "cleggmania" style come polling day. Hes hardly a new, fresh exciting figure - and their great populist cause - Brexit - has hardly been a triumph. TBH - ugly dog whistle racis aside - Brexit is the issue where farages feet should be held to fire. But this isn't a full constituency poll is it? I think these MRPs are quite "dangerous" at the moment in making assumptions about a seat. They don't seem to have explained how they can balance a sub sample of somewhere between 50 and 100 voters in a particular seat that has special factors. Overall numbers they should be close to right but special factors maybe not. There's also a similar issue with the tactical voting websites. Best for Britain has a recommendation for Bristol Central of Labour which is, frankly ridiculous when the Tories are third and can't win. This is in contrast, for example, to "vote with your heart" recommendations for Islington North and Ed Davey's seat. More so for Kingston given they say with Wimbledon to vote Lib Dem, despite Tories being in 3rd place according to their projections and 2nd place in Kingston. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 9:54:47 GMT
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jun 17, 2024 9:56:09 GMT
crossbat11Re banning and blocking. Agree completely. Chucking people off the site is a slippery slope which ends in an echo chamber, in my opinion. Trevor's posts irked me for their volume and length, but scrolling past confident that if he made a good, or daft, point among the interminable screeds it would start a debate was good enough for me. I rarely agreed with Colin but could always imagine sitting down and having a pleasant conversation in a tea shop if we happened to bump into one another. After the Brexit result, I realised how algorithms and personal choice had already narrowed my information sources. This forum is the closest I get to reading opinions and occasionally engaging with others who don't share my views, and hope to be able to dive in and out for a long time to come yet.
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 17, 2024 10:06:56 GMT
Another truck load of somewhat verbose anti-BBC comments his morning from several posters. My previous pleas for a more balanced and context-bound approach to BBC's election and political coverage have fallen on deaf ears. Bit pompous. It's the house style: it's very infectious. |
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Post by athena on Jun 17, 2024 10:11:59 GMT
The Wildlife and Countryside Link (an umbrella organisation for a bunch of wildlife and conservation organisations) has organised what it calls a Big Nature & Climate Debate to 'put the major political parties in the hot seat on their nature and climate policies'. Apparently 'environmental spokespeople for England’s largest parties' will be attending. It's going to be broadcast on Youtube at 7pm on 18th June. For some reason that entirely escapes me you need a link to view the broadcast, so you have to sign up. No idea what it'll be like, but I'm posting the info in case anyone else is interested. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 17, 2024 10:12:03 GMT
BBC bias is a frequent topic on here, but here is some research on it in the form of who has been invited on to Question Time over the last decade. To test how this is applied to Question Time, our researchers compiled a dataset of all editions of the programme from September 2014 until July 2023 – a total of 352 programmes with 1,734 guest slots across the nine seasons, filled by 661 different people.
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Removing politicians from the list of most frequent guests shows that several high-frequency panellists are being used, most of whom come from the political right. The regularly featured journalists are typically opinion columnists who contribute to rightwing press outlets such as the Mail or the Telegraph, or who make appearances on right-leaning broadcasters like GB News and TalkTV.
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The commitment to due impartiality can indeed mean that impartiality occurs over time – but the evidence does not demonstrate Question Time is achieving this. Instead, it may be sacrificing the BBC’s reputation for impartiality to create provocative programmes.Thanks. At last someone has produced some research. I have not got time to read it now but you won't mind if I come back to it later. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 17, 2024 10:14:53 GMT
Maybe you should have put SPOILERS on that comment. I'm a little behind with my viewing. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 10:21:42 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.org |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 17, 2024 10:30:50 GMT
I've got a couple of posters blocked at the moment one because they had a wasp up their arse about commenting when not an expert and the other because they told me to fuck off! But I kind of agree with thexterminatingdalek so I'll unblock them. There's one other whose comments were beyond acceptable and directly related to the murder of my friend, they can stay behind closed doors. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jun 17, 2024 10:33:10 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.org |
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Post by shevii on Jun 17, 2024 10:48:45 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.orgTo repeat- there is no statistical reason for saying "vote with your heart" in Kingston where they have the Tories in second place while saying vote Lib Dem in Wimbledon where they have the Tories in 3rd place. If the Tories are 3rd then it should be "vote with your heart" as standard because whoever someone voting to get the Tories out votes for then they will be out. If they are saying that Tories in 3rd may be incorrect then it's garbage in, garbage out. Plus unless the polls narrow then in my humble opinion (I would of course say that with wanting the Greens to poll well) all seats are vote with your heart and whether the Tories get 50 seats or 150 seats makes no difference to the government. It might be there are some undesirable and high profile Tories (JRM!!!) where damage could be done by having them in parliament and it might be nice to have a non Tory MP but in all honestly it's the government that matters and a local MP really doesn't have much influence (unless in cabinet) as compared to council elections. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 17, 2024 10:49:00 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.orgI think it is dangerous for a tactical voting site to rely on a single MRP provider. My own inclination would be to take Electoral Calculus, Survation, YouGov and MoreInCommon MRPs which cover the whole range of Labour/Tory outcomes and if either 3 or 4 of them lead to the same tactical vote, to go with it, otherwise use your judgement. |
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 10:52:42 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.orgRe- Wimbledon the website is pretty cautious in making its recommendation. I think it is very unwise to rely on a MRP survey which many of us find to be very suspect indeed.A lot of weight is given too to whether a party is targetting a particular seat, and that I find to be a rather unsound basis for urging a tactical vote on its own.There will be seats which Labour is not targetting as such - because the party has even better prospects elsewhere - but where a serious campaign effort is being made by local campaign workers with a reasonable prospect of success. I think of Didcot & Wantage and South Cambridgeshire as examples. The LDs ,in contrast, have far fewer realistic prospects and the fact that they have targetted a particular seat does not mean - in itself - that the LDs provide the obvious tactical vote option there.
I note also that the website is advocating a Green tactical vote in Waveney Valley - despite the MRP survey showing them as a distant fourth place!Again , this is justified on basis of it being targetted by the Greens. I don't think it makes much sense!
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 17, 2024 10:58:51 GMT
"Is this an LD supporting site or a genuine ABT tool?" Its nothing to do with the lib dems it's from Best for Britain which is a cross party movement aiming to improve our relationship with the European union they're basing their recommendations on mrp results. If you want to know more about best for Britain here's a link to their website www.bestforbritain.org
For my constituency, the advice is "Vote With Your Heart. Tactical voting isn’t necessary in all seats, and we want as many people to be able to vote for the party they think represents their values at this election. We haven’t made a recommendation here because the polling suggests the Conservatives can't win here. This means this seat is safe and you can vote for the party you want to." |
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Post by chrisc on Jun 17, 2024 11:02:23 GMT
Maybe you should have put SPOILERS on that comment. I'm a little behind with my viewing. Really sorry. Stupid of me. I’ll delete that bit |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 17, 2024 11:10:56 GMT
Maybe you should have put SPOILERS on that comment. I'm a little behind with my viewing. Really sorry. Stupid of me. I’ll delete that bit Forgiven, I'm even more excited to watch it now. Perhaps I'd better edit my reply too! |
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Post by shevii on Jun 17, 2024 11:17:35 GMT
I note also that the website is advocating a Green tactical vote in Waveney Valley - despite the MRP survey showing them as a distant fourth place!Again , this is justified on basis of it being targetted by the Greens. I don't think it makes much sense!
Obviously this can be Green propaganda on twitter and taken with a pinch of salt but it does seem to me that Greens are the challengers to the Tories in Waveney Valley with lots of (potentially dodgy) bar charts and statistics from canvass returns. Certainly no other party seems to working the seat hard and, while twitter absolutely is not representative, if you type "Waveney Valley" into the search box the Greens are literally all you see so at bare minimum this means the Greens are working the seat hard and no-one else is. However I don't think a tactical voting site should be making random (personal?) judgments and needs to be consistent at bare minimum. Truth is the MRP could well be incorrect there as they can't base their MRP on a small sub sample so national/regional demographics still appear to triumph in their predictions. It's probably better for people to make their own judgments in their own constituency because very few voters will cast their vote on the basis of a tactical voting website so the judgment on what comes through your letterbox is more likely to be a better judgement than a tactical voting website dealing with 650 constituencies. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 17, 2024 11:21:55 GMT
@crofty, I am really sorry you have had a night of flooding, I hope it is now sorted and the clean up isn't too ghastly. Thinking of you. First thought when @fecklessmiser mentioned flooding was “OMG, the guitars! Hope they’re ok!” But seems to be confined to the kitchen, so 🤞 Peter Frampton lost a load of guitars in a flood*. Brian May was pretty devastated by a flood in his home… well one of his homes presumably. I know where my stopcock is, but got a phone call once to tell me there had been a flood in a storage facility… They asked me to go down to open up my unit to check… as it happened the flooding had stopped just before my unit. Bit scary tho’ * “ I lost 44 guitars… a lot of the Les Pauls just split”: Peter Frampton on the 2010 Nashville flood “When people went in to look at the gear they went in on jet ski things.” guitar.com/news/music-news/peter-frampton-lost-guitars-nashville-flood/ |
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