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Post by jib on Jun 29, 2024 15:19:05 GMT
graham Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july Nonsense! I have attended the postal verification stage myself as a scrutineer at the July 2009 Norwich North by election. All candidates are invited to send scrutineers. For the last week or so - and this will continue next week before Polling Day - the postal votes returned will have been opened in batches in every constituency across the country.
After opening the envelope the signature of the voter is checked to confirm that it matches what has been kept on record. At the next stage the smaller envelope containing the ballot paper is opened and the ballot paper removed - and then placed face down. Despite this, however,, the scrutineers perusing the process are usually able to ascertain where the X has been placed and - like scrutineers at the official count after Close of Poll - and will note vote by vote how the various candidates are performing. A clear picture will tend to emerge in due course - and scrutineers will be comparing their observations with what has happened in that seat at earlier elections. Thus, if in a seat which has a Tory majority of circa 10,000 the PV verification stage shows Labour - or the LDs - well ahead, the news will filter out and this has started to happen. At the 2009 Norwich North by election there were two Local Authorities involved - Broadland DC which covered over 60% of the seat - and Norwich City Council which covered the remainder. I attended some of the verification sessions for both, and from the talles produced by myself and colleagues I came up with a very accurate projection of the final outcome I correctly predicted the order as- Con - Lab - LD - Ukip - Grn - Craig Murray - BNP. From a sample of just 600 votes my prediction was within 1% of the party vote shares - with the single exception of the BNP which polled 2.5% on the day rather than the 1% or so I had observed. It came as a shock to most people that Ukip oupolled the Greens, and I recall the dismay of a Green party worker in a pub on eve of poll when I advised him that this was likely to happen
Useful and well informed insight there & thanks. This was 2019....so looks like what you're saying is 100% Graham. |
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Post by lefthanging on Jun 29, 2024 15:20:39 GMT
alec - agree with all that - then again, Kuenssberg seemed to get away with it in 2019! Actually, don't some polling companies start to include an 'already voted' option on the 'how likely are you to vote?' question once postal voting opens? If so how do they avoid falling foul of these rules?
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 15:27:57 GMT
graham "Stage 3: opening of postal ballot paper envelopes3 open the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) and remove the ballot paper ensuring the ballot paper is kept face down at all times check the number on the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) matches the number on the back of the ballot paper place the ballot paper in the postal ballot box" The ballot is not supposed to be viewed other than the verifier if any political activist handles the ballot other than their own or a family member they have actually broken the law. So while it's technically opened it remains unviewed. If scrutinised are recording the vote tally by party they're in breach of electoral proceedings. Of course those opening the ballot envelope may get a glance at the polling side but this doesn't count as being opened because it's illegal to record the choice of vote it's a breach of electoral proceedings. It's akin to opening a delivery but not looking at the contents. Some of the legislation changed in May of this year but I think there's not a remote chance in hell that scrutineers were ever permitted to record the choice of vote and then pop down to the bookies to let them know. It's an absurd suggestion. It is not an absurd suggestion it is a statement of fact . I suggest you speak to a LD Agent or someone who has direct experience of the verification process. The ballot papers once removed from the small envelope are placed down in order to ensure that the voter's choice is unknown, but in most cases it is possible to see where the X has been placed before being added to the pile of ballot papers facing downwards. Scrutineers do keep a tally of what they see - as I did - and a clear picture gradually emerges. It is not possible to link individual ballot papers with voters because the identity declaration has already been removed. Had I been minded to do so, I could have made quite a profit at the Bookies based on my observations at the PV verification stage - particularly with regard to the order of the candidates.I have to say I was taken aback at how accurate my forecast proved to be! The PVs are not 'counted' at this stage - in that they are not organised in separate piles for each candidate. It is quite similar to what occurs initially on Election night at the formal count. The first stage then involves emptying each ballot box to count the number of votes cast in that single box - though the ballot papers are not placed face down and the scrutineers can see clearly how a vote has been cast.
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 15:38:03 GMT
graham When they were younger I sometimes stopped my kids going out. Does that make me a Josef Fritzl? That is how daft some of your ridiculous hyberbole comes across. And as Dave has pointed you are not above half truths yourself. You said you would do something (send a letter) and then you didn't. I sent an email! |
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Post by pete on Jun 29, 2024 15:42:54 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 29, 2024 15:43:00 GMT
"It is not an absurd suggestion it is a statement of fact." No it isn't it's cobblers if you used this information at a bookmakers. In addition to the election offences alec mentioned. The use of confidential information when placing a bet is a criminal offence Section 42 of the Gambling Act 2005. The offence includes relying on inside information or using other means to gain an unfair advantage. The maximum sentence is two years in prison. |
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 15:48:06 GMT
graham - "There are reports on Political betting.com which have come from both Tory and Labour Sources - based on what has been picked up from the verification of postal votes - that the outlook for the Tories is looking bleak." Yup It's that time again! "Postal votes are looking great/grim for Labour/Conservative/someone else" comes round every election around this time. You might also want to note this, from local.gov.uk - " It is an offence to try to find out how someone has voted in a polling station and to photograph ballot papers in polling stations. The Elections Act 2022 extended these requirements to apply to postal and proxy votes as well as votes cast in polling stations. What happens if someone breaches these new rules? Anyone found guilty of breaching these secrecy requirements could face a fine or imprisonment for up to six months."
(My emphasis added).
Whatever might have gone on when you were an observer, if you tried it now you would liable for 6 months inside.
No - You are mixing up trying to ascertain how a specific person voted with forming a view as to the pattern of votes appears to be developing. If I sought to find out how Alec or Steve had voted , it would amount to a breach of the regulations. However, simply saying that party A ,B or C appears to be doing well or otherwise would not fall foul in that way. |
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 15:55:04 GMT
"It is not an absurd suggestion it is a statement of fact." No it isn't it's cobblers if you used this information at a bookmakers The use of confidential information when placing a bet is a criminal offence Section 42 of the Gambling Act 2005. The offence includes relying on inside information or using other means to gain an unfair advantage. The maximum sentence is two years in prison. I was referring to the verification process - not going to the bookies. The latter would be an offence comparable to what we are hearing in the news now. It never occurred to me to do that- I was being entirely hypothetical. I do have to say that a person attending this stage would almost certainly not be apprehended were they to seek to profit from it.How would a Bookmaker know that a member of the public has attended such a process - given that very few people do so? |
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Post by steve on Jun 29, 2024 15:56:47 GMT
"However, simply saying that party A ,B or C appears to be doing well or otherwise would not fall foul in that way."
It would depend who you were saying it to and what purpose you were using it for.
Wouldn't want you falling afoul of my old colleagues would we.
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Post by jib on Jun 29, 2024 16:00:03 GMT
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Post by Danny on Jun 29, 2024 16:06:24 GMT
The fact that Farage is a far more dangerous or odious character than Starmer is totally beside the point at issue. They do have at least one trait in common - both are blatant liars! I find it difficult to understand how a few on here are so willing to effectively condone Starmer's lies - it frankly does them no credit. The line appears to be 'Starmer is nothing like as evil as Farage , so it is ok that he has lied repeatedly' I reject that view utterly - and adhere to it in my personal, private and professional life. If someone openly lies to me, I am not inclined to trust them again - though some liars are clearly onherently more evil than others. There is a concept in british political parties of collective responsibility. Any representative of that party is expected in public to follow the agreed compromise line of the entire party. Not to say what they personally believe, but push the party platform. It follows that every member of such a party is required to lie in public. As an example, the Bexhill MP Merriman was a remainer, campaigned for remain but then declared himself converted and a supporter of brexit when remain lost. Can anyone honestly believe his views on the merits of Brexit changed overnight when he heard the result? Not a chance! A number of others felt so strongly about this they refused to accept the new party line, and left parliament.
What would you suggest they do instead? Its a requirement of our political system that politicians lie to voters. Johnson had the knack to tease voters along, 'OK I am lying and you know I'm lying, it a game we play with you voters'. I think peope liked his honesty in admitting the parties always lie. Its like being entertained by a stage magician.
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Post by alec on Jun 29, 2024 16:10:48 GMT
lefthanging - "agree with all that - then again, Kuenssberg seemed to get away with it in 2019!" It wasn't an offence until 2022. Also, what graham says is also true. You don't necessarily need to ID individual votes to get a sense of how things are running. Just knowing where votes are coming from could help, so if you are seeing lots of votes from your strongholds, that might be a good sign.
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 16:12:10 GMT
The fact that Farage is a far more dangerous or odious character than Starmer is totally beside the point at issue. They do have at least one trait in common - both are blatant liars! I find it difficult to understand how a few on here are so willing to effectively condone Starmer's lies - it frankly does them no credit. The line appears to be 'Starmer is nothing like as evil as Farage , so it is ok that he has lied repeatedly' I reject that view utterly - and adhere to it in my personal, private and professional life. If someone openly lies to me, I am not inclined to trust them again - though some liars are clearly onherently more evil than others. There is a concept in british political parties of collective responsibility. Any representative of that party is expected in public to follow the agreed compromise line of the entire party. Not to say what they personally believe, but push the party platform. It follows that every member of such a party is required to lie in public. As an example, the Bexhill MP Merriman was a remainer, campaigned for remain but then declared himself converted and a supporter of brexit when remain lost. Can anyone honestly believe his views on the merits of Brexit changed overnight when he heard the result? Not a chance! A number of others felt so strongly about this they refused to accept the new party line, and left parliament.
What would you suggest they do instead? Its a requirement of our political system that politicians lie to voters. Johnson had the knack to tease voters along, 'OK I am lying and you know I'm lying, it a game we play with you voters'. I think peope liked his honesty in admitting the parties always lie. Its like being entertained by a stage magician.
But that misses the point here. Starmer was putting himself forward for a position - Leader of the Labour party - on the basis that he believed in a certain set of policies. Collective responisibility does not enter into the specifc promises which he made as a candidate at that election. He alone bears responsibility for making them - and subsequently running away from them. |
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Post by Danny on Jun 29, 2024 16:22:40 GMT
leftieliberal - the Nature study described in the Conversation article is interesting, but many commentators have suggested it's nothing like as interesting as the authors claim. For a start, it's attracted widespread criticism for the ethics of infecting patients with a virus liable to cause incurable disease in a proportion of those infected. There was no long term follow up, so we don't now what has happened to the volunteers in this case. They are also making extensive claims based on a total of 16 individuals in the study, who were all young and healthy volunteers. The data is not transferable to the wider population in any way, shape or form. Funny you should say that. It seems more likely the sample was very representative of the general younger population, only about 40% had a mild infection, 40% dealt with the infection without an antibody response or obvious symptoms, 20% were intermediate. As you say no long term follow up, but they declared them all free of symptoms at the end of their study (long covid doesnt disappear and then come back). The sort which would have infected hastings winter 19/20, when we didnt notice the town being infected? It would not surpise me that this strain was less severe, it has to evolve to reinfect later against tougher more resistant conditions. But it very much begs the question whether the best time to catch it was right at the start, with the best overall natural outcomes, rather than as we did, try to prevent infections with lockdowns until more virulent strains came along. What is a more normal dose? Presumably naturally the infecting dose will vary from 1 virus to a huge number. Cant say how typical their experiment is, but one of the original ways historically that immunisation was first conducted was by giving people a very very small dose of whatever it was. Their experiment quite possibly mirrors how naturall immunity builds in a population Very low doses will start the process of buidling immunity. Exposure to early weaker starins enables people to start developing immunity which will help against the later severe ones or high dose infections. Hospitalisations....please...what do you mean? Do you mean people taken to hospital because they are very ill with covid, or people in hospital who happen to have covid? The latter is the usual definition. This has always been a very important distinction, though also often overlooked. Of course it does, like money. Should we try to eradicate money? Think of a covid infection as a deposit in your immunity bank. |
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 16:22:42 GMT
Yesterday Starmer took calls from 10.00 - 11.00am on BBC5 Live with Nicky Campbell. At 10.25 I rang in giving details of my political background with a view to speaking to Starmer.I would have explained that as a former Labour PPC I felt unable to vote Labour this time on the basis that I was persuaded that he had shown himself to be a compulsive liar comparable to Boris Johnson albeit in a different way.The person I spoke to appeared interested and passed my question on to the producer but alas I did not get a call back. Time was obviously very limited by 10.30.
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Post by mark61 on Jun 29, 2024 16:30:30 GMT
Difficult to tear myself away from the riveting discussion on the ins and outs of postal votes, but are there any polls being released tonight?
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 16:32:44 GMT
Difficult to tear myself away from the riveting discussion on the ins and outs of postal votes, but are there any polls being released tonight? At least Opinium and Savanta Comres I believe. Maybe others. |
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Post by alec on Jun 29, 2024 16:33:07 GMT
Fascinating update from Ukraine: It's not all about high tech weapons. Ukraine is having some success destroying Russian drones y use of Yak-52s, twin seater 1970s turboprop trainers. I'm guessing the slow speed, probably allied with some more sophisticated electronic tracking systems, allows the Yaks to stalk the drones before shooting them down.
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Post by Danny on Jun 29, 2024 16:40:19 GMT
I'm sure it will affect them to some degree. Whilst I suspect most Reform voters probably agree with some of the sentiments of the activist, Farage had been trying to expand their base - in order to usurp the Tories in vote share. To do this he had to give the appearance of a party that wanted to significantly reduce inward migration but without tying this to race. Even racists don't like to be called racists or seen as endorsing racist views. Also Farage has much loftier ambitions. He wants to be the figurehead of right-wing politics. The events of recent days have damaged that intention. Now we are getting into the realms of 'shy tories', or as the case now may be 'shy racists'. Its very hard to know if these revelations will harm his campaign or help it. What you need to remember is that no party enjoys majority support in the country and its just fighting for small percentage shares. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 29, 2024 16:41:50 GMT
graham Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july They are opened now but not counted. In the only count I have been involved in on the admin side, the European election of 2014 (I always avoided electoral duties in my local government days, but on this occasion was conscripted) we counted the postal votes after the polls had closed on election day while we were waiting for the ballot boxes to be brought to the count from the large rural area with which I was helping. |
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Post by Danny on Jun 29, 2024 16:44:09 GMT
graham "Stage 3: opening of postal ballot paper envelopes3 open the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) and remove the ballot paper ensuring the ballot paper is kept face down at all times check the number on the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) matches the number on the back of the ballot paper place the ballot paper in the postal ballot box" The ballot is not supposed to be viewed other than the verifier if any political activist handles the ballot other than their own or a family member they have actually broken the law. So while it's technically opened it remains unviewed. If scrutinised are recording the vote tally by party they're in breach of electoral proceedings. Of course those opening the ballot envelope may get a glance at the polling side but this doesn't count as being opened because it's illegal to record the choice of vote it's a breach of electoral proceedings. It's akin to opening a delivery but not looking at the contents. Some of the legislation changed in May of this year but I think there's not a remote chance in hell that scrutineers were ever permitted to record the choice of vote and then pop down to the bookies to let them know. It's an absurd suggestion. Isn't this rather akin to rules where courts forbid the taking of photographs, but artists are able to view the proceedings and then make drawings? It sounds as though you can get an impression of who is winning even if you cannot get your notebook out and keep a tally. |
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Post by Danny on Jun 29, 2024 16:45:09 GMT
It always seemed likely that genetic variations could explain why some portions of the population were more susceptible to covid.
Historical DNA analysis of skeletons before, during and after the Black Death showed a similar pattern - to the extent that the susceptible dies : the immune survived and the DNA profile of the human race was permanently altered. Though of course covid killed hardly anyone of child bearing age. |
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 16:49:54 GMT
They are opened now but not counted. In the only count I have been involved in on the admin side, the European election of 2009 (I always avoided electoral duties in my local government days, but on this occasion was conscripted) we counted the postal votes after the polls had closed on election day while we were waiting for the ballot boxes to be brought to the count from the large rural area with which I was helping. In 2009 EU elections were combined with the LOcal Elections - the latter having been delayed by a few weeks. Polling Day was on a Thursday but the EU votes were not counted until the following Sunday - ie as with rest of EU. |
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Post by steve on Jun 29, 2024 16:49:56 GMT
"Nigel Farage refuses to appear on Laura Kuenssberg show until 'BBC apologises for their dishonest QT audience'"
The BBC should empty chair him, there's never a tub of lard when you need one.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 29, 2024 16:54:40 GMT
In the only count I have been involved in on the admin side, the European election of 2009 (I always avoided electoral duties in my local government days, but on this occasion was conscripted) we counted the postal votes after the polls had closed on election day while we were waiting for the ballot boxes to be brought to the count from the large rural area with which I was helping. In 2009 EU elections were combined with the LOcal Elections - the latter having been delayed by a few weeks. Polling Day was on a Thursday but the EU votes were not counted until the following Sunday - ie as with rest of EU. In that case it was 2014. Those are the only ones it could have been. Corrected. |
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Post by oldnat on Jun 29, 2024 16:54:46 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 29, 2024 16:56:16 GMT
There are reports on Political betting.com which have come from both Tory and Labour Sources - based on what has been picked up from the verification of postal votes - that the outlook for the Tories is looking bleak. It is strictly illegal to make any comment on information gained during the postal vote opening. I hope that the Police are investigating this. |
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Post by neilj on Jun 29, 2024 16:58:53 GMT
It's all over now for the tories...Elton John backs Labour
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 29, 2024 16:59:08 GMT
graham Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july Yes they are, but they are counted face-down at the verification stage. Some people think they can tell who has been voted for by the impressions on the back of the ballot paper. |
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Post by guymonde on Jun 29, 2024 17:06:04 GMT
I did verification of postal votes once or I think twice in the past. It was clear you were there to ensure good practice by the council officers managing the opening. It was made quite clear we were not there to count of verify votes but the agent said officers are not infallible and if you know where your candidate (Lab) is on the ballot paper you can get a good idea of how it's going in a general sense.
I suppose you could use what you see to colour your view of how the poll would go but it would be very tenuous and certainly in my case I would never trust my judgment, certainly not enough to think could bet with inside data.
Frankly, I thought it was a waste of time, but I was enthusiastic then and had time on my hands. I fed back that Tory had more than us, I thought, and the organiser shrugged and said the Tories have always been better at getting PVs - don't panic.
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