15 Jun 2024 : LAB: 43% / CON: 19% / REF: 16% / LDEM: 11%

[graham]

Jun 29, 2024 11:41:56 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 29, 2024 11:10:39 GMT graham said:

The fact that Farage is a far more dangerous or odious character than Starmer is totally beside the point at issue. They do have at least one trait in common - both are blatant liars! I find it difficult to understand how a few on here are so willing to effectively condone Starmer's lies - it frankly does them no credit. The line appears to be 'Starmer is nothing like as evil as Farage , so it is ok that he has lied repeatedly' I reject that view utterly - and adhere to it in my personal, private and professional life. If someone openly lies to me, I am not inclined to trust them again - though some liars are clearly onherently more evil than others.

When you compare Farage to Starmer - or Sunak, or any other mainstream politician - you validate him. Farage becomes just another one of the bunch,"they're all the same" and its fine to vote for him. The mainstreaming of the far right is profoundly dangerous, as we have seen all over the Western world, and should never be done. 

I feel that is a 'non sequitur'. It can reasonably be argued that someone such as Starmer who has had a long successful career outside politics was viewed as 'a breath of fresh air' at the outset, but his blatant lies have now lead many to associate him with so many other politicians - 'they're all the same.'

[graham]

There are reports on Political betting.com which have come from both Tory and Labour Sources - based on what has been picked up from the verification of postal votes - that the outlook for the Tories is looking bleak.

[steve]

graham
If you want to go through everyone by all means do.

But there are some further down the list for example number 79 on the list Torbay , no chance for Labour just about plausible now for the lib dems with tactical voting.

I made it clear there were some where the Lib dems and Labour share was similar in 2019, fine if you want labour and lib dems to slug it out and potentially allow the Tory back in that's the partisans approach, let's hope the voters in these constituencies are a tad more concerned about removing the Tories than seeing who can come second.

[steve]

graham

Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july

[chrisc]

Jun 29, 2024 8:11:12 GMT norbold said:

Jun 29, 2024 5:26:44 GMT steve said:

Has anyone actually seen a Tory garden poster any where?

I've seen a couple of "I Stand With Giles" large poster boards up in nearby farms in Clacton.

Talking of posters....I am a frequent (weekly) visitor to Colchester as my son, daughter-in-law and grandchildren live there. In past elections, the whole town seemingly has been festooned with LibDem posters - window posters, garden posters, you name it. This year the only posters I've seen are Labour ones.

Interestingly I’ve seen some of the I stand for Giles posers in areas that I’m pretty sure are in my (non clacton) constituency. Also Facebook posters assuming they will vote for Nigel. Not sure which way they’ll go when they find he’s not on the ballot paper. The joys of election times.

[pjw1961]

Saw my first Tory poster of the campaign today - for Priti Patel in the rural part Witham. Also my first Lib Dem one, in urban Witham (bit quixotic that one, the Lib Dems have never been a force round here). Still heavily outnumbered by Labour billboards, one of which has now sprouted in front of my house, which helpfully is on a commonly used route to the local polling station.

[thylacine]

As the temperature heats up some wise words of wisdom for the board to contemplate,

The Archbishop of Canterbury urged people to avoid "personalised abuse" in the closing stages of the election campaign as he encouraged voters to go to the ballot box

[Dave]

Jun 29, 2024 10:45:07 GMT graham said:

Jun 29, 2024 3:57:55 GMT pjw1961 said:

If you can't see the difference between Farage spreading his poisonous racism and xenophobia and Starmer's mild centrism which you don't like much, then I feel truly sorry for how warped your perspective has become. 

But you are begging the question - or ignoring the point at issue. If Starmer wished to put forward a centrist platform , he should have done so when seeking the leadership in 2020. He did not do that - he blatantly lied!! That is a trait which he shares with Farage and Johnson.

Ah, you’ve reminded me. Thank you. Did you get around to emailing the Labour Party like you said you would, claiming that you were a supporter and that you had been intending to donate a considerable sum to it?

[Dave]

Jun 29, 2024 10:49:19 GMT crossbat11 said:

pjw1961

Very well said in your last post.

In fairness, and in part semi-defence of them, both Graham and shevii have declared their personal loathing of Starmer regularly on this forum.

Their attacks on him are as consistent as they are relentless.

I dont't think either of them are particularly representative of opinion on here about Starmer.

… or amongst the electorate.

[graham]

Jun 29, 2024 12:35:35 GMT steve said:

graham

Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july

Nonsense! I have attended the postal verification stage myself as a scrutineer at the July 2009 Norwich North by election. All candidates are invited to send scrutineers. For the last week or so - and this will continue next week before Polling Day -  the postal votes  returned will have been opened in batches in every constituency across the country.

After opening the envelope the signature of the voter is checked to confirm that it matches what has been kept on record. At the next stage the smaller envelope containing the ballot paper is opened and the ballot paper removed -   and then placed face down. Despite this, however,, the scrutineers perusing the process are usually able to ascertain where the X has been placed and - like scrutineers at the official count after Close of Poll  - and will note vote by vote how the various candidates are performing. A clear picture will tend to emerge in due course - and scrutineers will be comparing their observations with what has happened in that seat at earlier elections. Thus, if in a seat which has a Tory majority of circa 10,000 the PV verification  stage shows Labour - or the LDs - well ahead, the news will filter out and this has started to happen.

At the 2009 Norwich North by election there were two Local Authorities involved - Broadland DC which covered over 60% of the seat - and Norwich City Council which covered the remainder. I attended some of the verification sessions for both, and from the talles produced by myself and colleagues I came up with a very accurate projection of the final outcome I correctly predicted the order as-

Con - Lab - LD - Ukip - Grn - Craig Murray - BNP.

From a sample of just 600 votes my prediction was within 1% of the party vote shares - with the single exception of the BNP which polled 2.5% on the day rather than the 1% or so I had observed.

It came as a shock to most people that Ukip oupolled the Greens, and I recall the dismay of a Green party worker in a pub on eve of poll when I advised him that this was likely to happen

[Dave]

Jun 29, 2024 11:10:39 GMT graham said:

The line appears to be 'Starmer is nothing like as evil as Farage , so it is ok that he has lied repeatedly' I reject that view utterly - and adhere to it in my personal, private and professional life.

Just seen this so to add to my earlier point, I presume didn’t write to the Labour Party lying your arse off as you said you would? Not that you put it in those terms. 🙂

[robbiealive]

Jun 29, 2024 11:44:54 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 29, 2024 11:04:50 GMT robbiealive said:

You act as those we were conned by Starmer in the leadership election. I voted for him as the best candidate to deal with Johnson, to win back the millions of Labour voters who stayed at home  in 2019, & to end the power of the Corbyn element represented by Long-Bailey/Rayner, which had lost us 3 elections (if one includes Corbyn's useless leadership in the 2016 Ref.) 
Of course I didn't believe half the things he said in the campaign. Who tells the truth when trying to win a leadership campaign! Or in any other bloody Brit election. One votes by one's instincts about who can win. 
You think Long-Bailey, Corbyn's annointed succesor, would have been a better bet? 

I agree and it's broadly where I was coming from when opting for Starmer to succeed Corbyn.

Your last point is a good one too about platforms constructed to win party membership support differing somewhat by the time a policy platform has to be put to the British public at election time. Lakeland Lass's Keynes quote is very pertinent here.

I'm not going to bother doing it, and I don't recommend the utterly worthless exercise to anyone else either, but if Corbyn's offer to the Labour membership in 2015 is examined in detail, I suspect it mutated over time as he was ultimately confronted with the task of tying to convince the electorate to put him into power.

I seem to remember him coo-ing sweet nothings about the Royal Family and equivocating about nuclear weapons too during the two general elections campaigns he fought.

The lifetime unilateral nuclear disarmer and republican ducking and diving like all politicians have to do when they escape party faithful rallies and enter the real world where voter adoration is less easily offered.

I admit (although not "without a small but clear note of resentment" ha ha, as a character's feelings are expressed in the last line of E. Waugh's brilliant trilogy about WW2, Men at Arms, that you put it rather better than I did.) That is "The Leaders Dilemma", appealing to his own party members and then to the Country.

[Dave]

Jun 29, 2024 11:23:00 GMT shevii said:

Jun 29, 2024 10:31:28 GMT pjw1961 said:

You will be aware Starmer has spent the last two days clarifying and semi-apologising over that:

"Defending the comments on Thursday, Sir Keir said he was trying to give an example of a safe country where a returns agreement is in place - but people aren't being sent back because their asylum claims are not being processed. He told broadcasters: "The reference in the debate the other day was an example of a country that is considered safe as far as asylum is concerned, and one of the countries that's actually got a returns agreement with us, and that is actually a good thing where both we and Bangladesh can be proud of."

"I certainly wasn't intending to cause any concern or offence to any Bangladeshi community here." He said he values the relationship and the contribution of the Bangladeshi community in Britain, adding: "They've made a massive contribution to our economy, to our culture and to our country. That's why there's always been a longstanding and strong relationship between Labour and the Bangladeshi community here. "It's why my first trip as a Labour MP was to Bangladesh, where I saw for myself the strength of the country, the hospitality and warmth of the country. I've got many Bangladeshi constituents in my own constituency who I've been working with for many years, and I want to build on that in government."
news.sky.com/story/starmer-says-he-meant-no-offence-to-bangladeshi-community-over-deportation-comments-13159889

However, I will say the same to you as to Graham - anyone who can't see the difference between the danger to the democratic values of this country represented by Farage and Starmer's moderate centrism has lost the plot. They are not even in the same ballpark and it lets Farage off the hook to make the comparison. Stopping the growth of right-wing nationalism in this country is too important for petty point scoring. 

I said as much in my post and no disagreements from me but as RAF says "clarifications" don't hold much sway for me.  The intent was clear and the point being that you start going down that extreme a line when you have a 20 point lead and the election is a done deal ...

To stop you there, it is not a done deal and won’t be, if it is to be one at all, until 10pm on Thursday night.

[graham]

Jun 29, 2024 13:03:07 GMT Dave said:

Jun 29, 2024 10:45:07 GMT graham said:

But you are begging the question - or ignoring the point at issue. If Starmer wished to put forward a centrist platform , he should have done so when seeking the leadership in 2020. He did not do that - he blatantly lied!! That is a trait which he shares with Farage and Johnson.

Ah, you’ve reminded me. Thank you. Did you get around to emailing the Labour Party like you said you would, claiming that you were a supporter and that you had been intending to donate a considerable sum to it?

But I do vote Labour at local and PCC elections.Having been harrassed by 30 or so emails from Labour HQ , I made an appropriate response.

[graham]

Many MRP surveys can be binned. I have just read that one survey puts Labour ahead in Guildford which is utter tosh.

[thylacine]

I do wonder if all of this censure, shock, horror and surprise ( really)in the media of RefUK is just free publicity for Farage. Surely anyone already considering a vote for reform is hardly likely to be put off by allegations of racism and homophobia more likely they will be attracted by it ? I know it shouldn't pass unchallenged but maybe there is a better way handle it ?

[RAF]

The wheels are coming off the Reform bus at breakneck speed. Farage alleges the BBC set up a QT audience hostile to his party; and Reform is taking C4 to the Electoral Commission as they allege that the activist in Clacton who made a series of racist and prejudiced comments was planted by C4.

[neilj]

Nigel Farage
"I have just been invited to appear on Laura Kuenssberg.
I’m refusing until the BBC apologises for their dishonest QT audience"

I'm with Nigel...I hope he extends his strike to not appear on any tv channel...that will show them Nigel

[neilj]

Jun 29, 2024 13:51:25 GMT RAF said:

The wheels are coming off the Reform bus at breakneck speed. Farage alleges the BBC set up a QT audience hostile to his party; and Reform is taking C4 to the Electoral Commission as they allege that the activist in Clacton who made a series of racist and prejudiced comments was planted by C4.

In all seriousness this is the first time Farage has come under intense scrutiny, either by the press or even other parties in the election. He shows himself a very thin skinned individual, who's gone into a massive sulk, unable to take the pressure

[steve]

General election live: Farage says he is boycotting BBC

What will Question Time do!

The horror

[RAF]

Jun 29, 2024 13:50:33 GMT thylacine said:

I do wonder if all of this censure, shock, horror and surprise ( really)in the media of RefUK is just free publicity for Farage. Surely anyone already considering a vote for reform is hardly likely to be put off by allegations of racism and homophobia more likely they will be attracted by it ? I know it shouldn't pass unchallenged but maybe there is a better way handle it ?

I'm sure it will affect them to some degree. Whilst I suspect most Reform voters probably agree with some of the sentiments of the activist, Farage had been trying to expand their base - in order to usurp the Tories in vote share. To do this he had to give the appearance of a party that wanted to significantly reduce inward migration but without tying this to race. Even racists don't like to be called racists or seen as endorsing racist views.
Also Farage has much loftier ambitions. He wants to be the figurehead of right-wing politics. The events of recent days have damaged that intention.

[steve]

graham

"Stage 3: opening of postal ballot paper envelopes3
open the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) and remove the ballot paper ensuring the ballot paper is kept face down at all times
check the number on the ballot paper envelope (envelope ‘A’) matches the number on the back of the ballot paper
place the ballot paper in the postal ballot box"

The ballot is not supposed to be viewed other than the verifier if any political activist handles the ballot other than their own or a family member they have actually broken the law.

So while it's technically opened it remains unviewed.

If scrutinised are recording the vote tally by party they're in breach of electoral proceedings.

Of course those opening the ballot envelope may get a glance at the polling side but this doesn't count as being opened because it's illegal to record the choice of vote it's a breach of electoral proceedings.
It's akin to opening a delivery but not looking at the contents.

Some of the legislation changed in May of this year but I think there's not a remote chance in hell that scrutineers were ever permitted to record the choice of vote and then pop down to the bookies to let them know.

It's an absurd suggestion.

[oldnat]

Jun 29, 2024 9:26:25 GMT leftieliberal said:

An article in The Conversation especially for alec - why some people caught covid and others didn't.

It always seemed likely that genetic variations could explain why some portions of the population were more susceptible to covid.

Historical DNA analysis of skeletons before, during and after the Black Death showed a similar pattern - to the extent that the susceptible dies : the immune survived and the DNA profile of the human race was permanently altered.

[steve]

While Biden was having a senior moment which was highly regrettable at the debate worth remembering the traitor is a lying lunatic all the time.

Here's the disgraced former president in his bat shit bonkers assertion that " they" want " all electric army tanks"
I think he's confusing the U.S. army with his Lego set.

youtu.be/Ag7K8lX1-9w?si=8RinIl5AJxHMLJsA

[bedknobsandboomstick]

Jun 29, 2024 12:35:35 GMT steve said:

graham

Postal votes aren't opened until 10pm on 4th july

They are opened now but not counted.

[Dave]

Jun 29, 2024 13:13:37 GMT graham said:

Jun 29, 2024 13:03:07 GMT Dave said:

Ah, you’ve reminded me. Thank you. Did you get around to emailing the Labour Party like you said you would, claiming that you were a supporter and that you had been intending to donate a considerable sum to it?

But I do vote Labour at local and PCC elections.Having been harrassed by 30 or so emails from Labour HQ , I made an appropriate response.

… which was what? What you said you’d say about the donation you were considering making when you were never considering such a thing. In other words a lie. As you’re a man who doesn’t seem to understand scale, I’m sure you’ll be fine with me putting you on exactly the same level of liar as Johnson, Farage, Keir Stalin, Billy Liar and Pinocchio.

[steve]

"They are opened now but not counted."

Which is actually what I meant to say in the first place .

Thanks

[eotw]

graham

When they were younger I sometimes stopped my kids going out. Does that make me a Josef Fritzl?

That is how daft some of your ridiculous hyberbole comes across.

And as Dave has pointed you are not above half truths yourself. You said you would do something (send a letter) and then you didn't.

[steve]

Nigel Farage refuses to appear on Laura Kuenssberg show until 'BBC apologises for their dishonest QT audience'
Nigel Farage has refused to appear on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, describing the BBC as having “behaved like a political actor throughout this election”.


The frog faced hate gimp appears to have failed to have grasped the concept of audience participation.


We will soon see him.in bright orange face paint wearing a MBGA ( make brexitania great again) baseball cap while railing against the fake news in front of an audience of geriatric knuckle draggers while being filmed by GB News.

[alec]

graham - "There are reports on Political betting.com which have come from both Tory and Labour Sources - based on what has been picked up from the verification of postal votes - that the outlook for the Tories is looking bleak."

Yup It's that time again!

"Postal votes are looking great/grim for Labour/Conservative/someone else" comes round every election around this time.

You might also want to note this, from local.gov.uk - "It is an offence to try to find out how someone has voted in a polling station and to photograph ballot papers in polling stations. The Elections Act 2022 extended these requirements to apply to postal and proxy votes as well as votes cast in polling stations.
What happens if someone breaches these new rules?

Anyone found guilty of breaching these secrecy requirements could face a fine or imprisonment for up to six months."

(My emphasis added).

Whatever might have gone on when you were an observer, if you tried it now you would liable for 6 months inside.