c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 22, 2024 14:36:40 GMT
Apparently lack of finance available for pre Autumn election budget giveaway may be forcing their hands. I do hope so. Sunak can then spend more time with his tailor getting his trousers lengthened. Assuming he doesn’t get them shortened even more 😨😨😨 |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 22, 2024 14:36:48 GMT
I wonder, if the rumours of a July GE prove to be true, if Sunak has been spooked into it by internal Tory stories of imminent large scale and/or high level defections.
In other words, he's decided to head things off at the pass, as they used to say in old westerns.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 22, 2024 14:39:25 GMT
Anushka Asthana ITV news
'New- Some folk in govt have been told an election is being announced but they weren’t told the date…'
I think this is happening
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 14:41:23 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 14:42:41 GMT
I wonder, if the rumours of a July GE prove to be true, if Sunak has been spooked into it by internal Tory stories of imminent large scale and/or high level defections. In other words, he's decided to head things off at the pass, as they used to say in old westerns. My highly confident informant's two defections at PMQs failed to materialise. I'm not exactly surprised, but I will be asking for his excuses! |
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Post by lefthanging on May 22, 2024 14:42:45 GMT
On the topic of the systematic failings of the British state and its inability to deliver anything at pace (which is supposed to be a core civil service behaviour!) I thought it would be worth drawing attention to this article on Grenfell: www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp46z93k6oCan it seriously take ten years to begin prosecutions for this? It took long enough for the inquiry to be set up. I know these things take time and the need for due process etc. (I'm a civil servant myself) but this is getting ridiculous. We clearly need both greater resources and a more rational process to follow. Can Starmer make this at least a little better? I seriously hope so. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 22, 2024 14:42:46 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. Margate? 😀 |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 14:43:19 GMT
Guardian headline is that government ministers are putting their holiday pans on hold. Seems to be a camping reference  |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 22, 2024 14:43:26 GMT
Maybe that's another tory consideration as most of their diminished number of 'trampers' might be prone to a bit of rheumatism! They just need to make sure it's done before any school holidays start, our school finishes early on July 10th or thereabouts. Most political activists are pretty long in the tooth these days, unfortunately. Activistas United, pj!! 😎😁🌞 |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 14:44:02 GMT
More speculation, but if you scroll down, there are apparently Tory MPs completely losing their sh*t, saying that even if Sunak goes to the King to seek a dissolution, they might orchestrate a coup to prevent the writ being moved! Utterly hilarious. That would be a good look going into a election.  |
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Post by johntel on May 22, 2024 14:45:11 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 22, 2024 14:50:33 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. Not so much of an issue under sortition |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 14:53:15 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. Not so much of an issue under sortition |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 22, 2024 14:53:50 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. I was forgetting Scotland breaks up and goes back weeks earlier. It can't be allowable to have an election during school holidays anywhere in the UK surely? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 14:54:51 GMT
Well, I intend to follow the election campaign assiduously and give Sunak every possible chance to persuade me to give the Tories another five years. Will probably start taking the Daily Mail in order to get balanced coverage.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 14:55:56 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. I was forgetting Scotland breaks up and goes back weeks earlier. It can't be allowable to have an election during school holidays anywhere in the UK surely? Not sure Scotland counts. |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 14:57:26 GMT
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Post by johntel on May 22, 2024 15:01:03 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. I was forgetting Scotland breaks up and goes back weeks earlier. It can't be allowable to have an election during school holidays anywhere in the UK surely? It's a cunning Tory plot to reduce the number of adults with school kids who can vote. |
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Post by hireton on May 22, 2024 15:01:58 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election.
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 15:02:57 GMT
Something is going on, is it an election, reshuffle or will there be an official colour for lanyards announced...anything could happen in the next half hour Maybe I'm cynical but could July seem a good date for them to choose because students and younger people without kids and (vanishingly) unlikely to vote tory could already be away somewhere? Well I can assure them parents of school age kids sure as hell aren't gonna vote for them either.. But they can easily vote by post up to two weeks earlier! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 22, 2024 15:03:38 GMT
Not so much of an issue under sortition You can still stay and enjoy the election though, complete with Hobnobs, Argie vino*, see what happens with the polling, see the “Portillo” moments… (Am quite looking forward to the Telegraph reaction)… the whole time I’ve been on this board never experienced a Labour victory 🥀 Hopefully there will be no VAR decisions 🤞 * although maybe different wine if you have your own winery, obvs. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 15:05:20 GMT
If a a UK GE is called for 4 July, then Scottish schools will have been on holiday for a week, and many will already have booked their holiday in the sun for then. I was forgetting Scotland breaks up and goes back weeks earlier. It can't be allowable to have an election during school holidays anywhere in the UK surely?
I don't think there are any rules about school holidays in the colonies preventing a GE! Even if there were, the SoSs for Scotland & NI probably don't know about these holiday dates, as there children/grandchildren probably board at an English school anyway! |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 15:06:43 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election. It will be ignored. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 15:06:47 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election.
(nicked from Twitter) |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 15:08:09 GMT
If Sunak were to call a Summer election, would this be a good or bad move? I'm inclined to think that the polling trend is only heading in one direction as time passes - and that an end-of-year election would not only allow those numbers to continue to drop, the perception of dragging things on to the bitter end will reduce the Tory vote count further. So on that basis they'd be advised to go as soon as possible. Having said that, if Sunak thinks the ~2% inflation figures announced today is going to be credited to him, I think he'll be disappointed. Sunak is such a bad performer that I'd only expect Labour's lead to widen once the campaign gets into full swing - if that occurred we really would be in full Tory wipeout territory. Are there any negatives attached to a Summer election from a Tory perspective? July is the beginning of the holiday season, so some people will be away on pre-booked holidays and may not think to get a postal vote in time. My own summarising of the polling data (see polling archive) has shown Labour's lead extending for the last 12 months, so it's not obviously going to turn round in the next 3-6 months. Labour still have to pick a number of Parliamentary candidates (I don't know how many) and picking candidates in a hurry can lead to people getting in who shouldn't (e.g. Jared O'Mara). The only negative I can see from the Tory point of view is the number of MPs losing their seats earlier than they expected. |
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 15:08:52 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election. Indeed - there are reports that is now happening! |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 22, 2024 15:08:55 GMT
Maybe I'm cynical but could July seem a good date for them to choose because students and younger people without kids and (vanishingly) unlikely to vote tory could already be away somewhere? Well I can assure them parents of school age kids sure as hell aren't gonna vote for them either.. But they can easily vote by post up to two weeks earlier! Yes of course they 'can' but like photo id it reduces the chance that many 'will'. That's the point. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 22, 2024 15:09:42 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election. It will be ignored. or he’ll defect to Labour. (Maybe Starmer offered him a post if he calls the election early!) - it’s set the board alight anyway |
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 15:14:46 GMT
But they can easily vote by post up to two weeks earlier! Yes of course they 'can' but like photo id it reduces the chance that many 'will'. That's the point. If the election is to be announced today, there are weeks ahead for supposedly intelligent people to manage to organise a postal vote. Political parties will be chasing them up. I was at University when Ted Heath called an election on February 7th 1974 to be held just 3 weeks later on February 28th. Virtually everybody appeared to have a postal vote. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 15:15:37 GMT
I wonder what happens if Sunak calls a summer election and in parallel enough Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election. Graham Brady puts them in his safe and leaves them for his successor to deal with (he's standing down at this General Election). |
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