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Post by RAF on May 3, 2024 0:19:21 GMT
In 2021, the last YouGov poll put Khan ahead of Bailey by 12% (1st Pref) and 18% (after 2nd pref).
The result was a lead for Khan of 5% (after first prefences) and a win for Khan of 10% (after second preferences).
A pretty large overestimate for Khan.
It's first past the post this year. The last You Gov poll had Khan with a lead over Hall of 22%. Assuming the polling miss is the same as last time (we'll compare with the first preference result in 2021), Khan will win by around 9%.
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 0:20:27 GMT
BBC showing that in my home town, Newcastle, Lab have lost 1 seat to Green and 2 to LDs. Lab will still hold the council, Tories have no seats and haven't had any for probably 20 - 30 years. LDs held the council until 2011. The talk is that the seat lost to the Greens is due to the Muslim vote.
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Post by ptarmigan on May 3, 2024 0:24:23 GMT
If my highly scientific method of counting party posters in windows, stake boards etc locally has anything going for it Labour should clean up here (more than a handful vs nothing much else). Actually, I did see one Reform household but the overenthusiastic way in which they'd decorated their windows and lawn aroused my suspicions that it was the residence of the candidate, or at least a close personal friend. Meanwhile, the lone Tory board I spied turned out to be a blue Estate Agent's sign. For some reason, the candidates in my ward doubled this time - have generally only had Con, Lab and Lib, but they were joined by Reform, TUSC and an independent this time which should make things a little more interesting. Rushmoor could be an interesting council to watch. It's been comfortably Tory for a fair old while but if tonight's result is anything like last year it will slip into NOC, and it could even be a Labour gain (wouldn't be at all surprised by this outcome).
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guymonde
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Post by guymonde on May 3, 2024 0:25:34 GMT
Having spent much of the last 4 weeks banging doors around suburban London, I am now knackered. We had a by-election from a Lab councillor resigning, partly because of Gaza, partly because her day job had ramped up. This would normally be a safe seat but because it's a by election we have extra independents (one Galloway linked ex Lab cllr) and a TUSC. I think we will hold that with Galloway independent the only real threat. Decent Tory and Green (and TUSC) will be nowhere.
Much of the energy locally was about the by-election but on the wider screen Sadiq looks safe (not without a bit of third term fatigue and some effect from the Tories starving him out, hence ULEZ etc).
My most striking experience is how draining it is facing an unprincipled, fundamentally dishonest rival flooding the ward with material ( I believe 10 leaflets where Lab were struggling to get to 3, supporting 3 elections - Mayor, Regional MLAs, by- election.
Count tomorrow (usually fun) then a fortnight at Donington for the Historic car racing meeting.
Having see early results from EG Newcastle, very good results from Green are worrying for Lab, because I suspect there is a fair amount of Gaza in that. Only two people mentioned it to me on the doorstop but a difficult conversation because I think I agree with them
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Post by ptarmigan on May 3, 2024 0:35:13 GMT
Bit odd, this. London's got a huge electorate and there are generally about 2 million votes to count, the process for which hasn't yet started. I can't really see how anyone could be "utterly convinced" about the result half an hour after the polls closed. That said, not sure why Cons would be briefing this if it turns out to be very wrong. Is this just mischief making or could there be some substance to it? I wouldn't be overly surprised if the polls had overstated Khan's margin of victory but this seems a bit wild. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 0:42:46 GMT
Labour has not yet made net gains tonight with 76 wards declared. That is only 3% of the total but not a good omen. The party is losing to Greens et al on the same scale it is picking up from the Tories.
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 0:45:48 GMT
Lab claiming that they will control Hartlepool.
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Post by davem on May 3, 2024 0:49:58 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2024 0:50:53 GMT
Bit odd, this. London's got a huge electorate and there are generally about 2 million votes to count, the process for which hasn't yet started. I can't really see how anyone could be "utterly convinced" about the result half an hour after the polls closed. That said, not sure why Cons would be briefing this if it turns out to be very wrong. Is this just mischief making or could there be some substance to it? I wouldn't be overly surprised if the polls had overstated Khan's margin of victory but this seems a bit wild. Unless they knew how much the ballot boxes had been stuffed? |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 0:56:06 GMT
Labour has been badly mauled by Independents in South Tyneside.
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 1:18:03 GMT
Hartlepool confirmed, Lab gain 8 seats and move the council from NOC to a majority of 12 seats,
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 1:22:36 GMT
Lab calling Thurrock council a gain.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 1:23:50 GMT
Labour has been badly mauled by Independents in South Tyneside. That doyenne of impartiality, La Kuenssberg, ascribes the Independent surge in South Tyneside to a dispute over non-collection of the bins. |
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Post by davem on May 3, 2024 1:41:15 GMT
Labour has been badly mauled by Independents in South Tyneside. That doyenne of impartiality, La Kuenssberg, ascribes the Independent surge in South Tyneside to a dispute over non-collection of the bins. South Tyneside has had a number of issues, the former Labour Leader has told stand down after bullying allegations and talk of financial irregularities. In the past the local tax Ayers party held several seats on the council. The issue about the bins, is actually a long running industrial dispute and bins have not been collected on and off for several months. |
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Post by expatr on May 3, 2024 1:49:58 GMT
Labour has not yet made net gains tonight with 76 wards declared. That is only 3% of the total but not a good omen. The party is losing to Greens et al on the same scale it is picking up from the Tories. 1 hour later looks very different....
1 more hour should give a pretty clear view
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 1:53:49 GMT
BBC showing that in areas with large Muslim population the Lab vote has fallen by 19%. These have been gained by Green and Ind.
It is becoming obvious that Lab (Starmer) have made bad decisions and bad statements re the Gaza situation. Unqualified support for the Israeli government goes against the view of the majority of the UK population and this is obviously exagerated wrt to the Muslim population.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 2:00:55 GMT
Surprisingly, the BBC seems to be well ahead of Sky in terms of reporting results this evening. Whether they're taking a flyer in terms of announcing seats before they're declared and/or Sky are being more circumspect, I'm not sure, but it's usually the other way around in my recent experience.
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 2:08:29 GMT
Labour calls Rushmoor council a Lab gain. If confirmed, it is the first direct Con -> Lab gain. Lab have never held the council.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 2:09:16 GMT
BBC and Sky reporting LAB have gained Rushmoor, Hants, which includes Aldershot, the home of the British Army, direct from CON.
That's big.
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 2:12:32 GMT
Labour has not yet made net gains tonight with 76 wards declared. That is only 3% of the total but not a good omen. The party is losing to Greens et al on the same scale it is picking up from the Tories. 1 hour later looks very different....
1 more hour should give a pretty clear view
10% of seats now declared and it does look much better for Labour despite big losses in Muslim areas. Very bleak for the Tories. |
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 2:37:00 GMT
Lab suggesting that they have probably lost Oldham. Almost certainly this will again be due to the Muslim vote.
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Post by expatr on May 3, 2024 2:40:50 GMT
Surprisingly, the BBC seems to be well ahead of Sky in terms of reporting results this evening. Whether they're taking a flyer in terms of announcing seats before they're declared and/or Sky are being more circumspect, I'm not sure, but it's usually the other way around in my recent experience. BBC are tabulating wards as declared; Sky (and Graun) are waiting for the whole council to be declared until adding in (very odd)
actually britain elects twitter is being very useful (twitter as it used to be useful)
Sky's coverage though is excellent and knocking the appalling Kuensberg out of the park
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 2:47:43 GMT
BBC stating that Con are currently losing 60% of their previous councillors
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2024 2:54:08 GMT
Curtice saying " The Greens, some spectacular gains... they may be heading for their best performance yet in English local elections" …and… Impact on the Tory vote where Refuk are standing:  |
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 3:00:32 GMT
Gullis on BBC - what a pain. All he can do is spout out the typical tory lines without any perspective on the current results
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 3:05:25 GMT
Gullis on BBC - what a pain. All he can do is spout out the typical tory lines without any perspective on the current results I was just thinking exactly the same. WTAF? Mad as a box of frogs. |
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Post by expatr on May 3, 2024 3:19:30 GMT
BBC and Sky reporting LAB have gained Rushmoor, Hants, which includes Aldershot, the home of the British Army, direct from CON. That's big. Miss J Hunter Dunne, Miss J Hunter Dunne Clearly decided that Starmer's the one.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 3:35:11 GMT
BBC and Sky reporting LAB have gained Rushmoor, Hants, which includes Aldershot, the home of the British Army, direct from CON. That's big. Miss J Hunter Dunne, Miss J Hunter Dunne Clearly decided that Starmer's the one.
I'm afraid your reference somewhat threw me, but having checked it out, what a beautiful little poem. |
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 3:47:44 GMT
Blackpool S Lab win Tory 2nd (Just) Reform 3rd Lab majority ca. 7,600
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Post by peterbell on May 3, 2024 3:49:39 GMT
26% swing in Blackpool
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