2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[neilj]

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'One or two resignations is one thing, a load of cabinet and ministers at once is something else'

So I assume you were also very critical of Labour councillors resigning on mass over Gaza?

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

Of course there are significant regional differences in the uk.

When we bought our most recent property in Runcorn Cheshire in 2019 the sale price was actually around £15,000 lower than when it was built around ten years earlier.

The prices have risen somewhat since but from construction of the development until now only by around 35% in over 15 years earlier, in real terms the rise is around 15%, it's popular, property goes in days when offered for sale or rent, well maintained ,nice views over the Mersey estuary and convenient for transport five minute drive to the train station to Liverpool , Manchester and Chester and it's just two hours by train to London.

You can still pick up a nice 3 bed semi with ensuite and gardens for well under £200,000. (I've got one for sale if anyone's interested☺) and two bedroom starter homes start from around £90,000.

It seems a bit bizarre almost as if it's a microcosm of what housing should be like in terms of cost

You'd expect a significant price increase but it just hasn't happened.

Attachment Deleted

[steve]

Comedy gold from Wes Streeting

More Tory MPs are considering defection to Labour, says Wes Streeting
Shadow health secretary says party will not accept just any MP after Natalie Elphicke’s move to Labour.


Indeed prospective Tory defectors will be required to have a pulse and no criminal convictions.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 8:57:30 GMT neilj said:

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'One or two resignations is one thing, a load of cabinet and ministers at once is something else'

So I assume you were also very critical of Labour councillors resigning on mass over Gaza?

Well I wasn’t seeking to be critical. I was just looking at the realistic prospects of left-wing policy if the right wing MPs in the party are determined to oppose it. (I was also excusing Starmer a bit since EU ties his hands a bit. Just trying to take it all into account to see what might happen).

(But of course, resignations on points of principle in a landslide, are different from resignations when things are tighter, which relates to the voting issue as well: the left can vote for an alternative more readily to try and influence policy when the election is less at risk). 
 

[James E]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate. This lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early May 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed Labour on average 11 points ahead.


On the more general point about Labour's ability to win under Corbyn - this poll from August 2023 seems to me the best relevant evidence..

"Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
Aug 2023."
Changes w/ Regular VI.
12:42 pm · 18 Aug 2023

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate, and this lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early may 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed labour on average 11 points ahead.

Not at all, indeed I have posted in the past a few times about how Labour gained from both party gate as well. I got tired of mentioning both, but forgot you would be hovering. (Not sure but I think I might even have posted the graph showing the slide?) And the difference is that the slide under partygate was still potentially rather more recoverable for Tories, whereas after Truss it suddenly got a quite a lot harder. But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss.

[alec]

steve and c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "While that may be true, the house price rises can still be significant. I just had a quick google and the first source I looked at said the EU average rose 45% in the last decade, and if we look at a peer like Germany it was nearly 100%.

So yes, it might be even worse here, but that doesn’t mean the problem is easily surmountable elsewhere. And some European countries might have more available land mass than us. As alec has pointed out before now I think, we are quite densely populated."

I did point out that the Netherlands, the only European country more densely populated than England, is experiencing an even worse housing crisis than we are.

Whether it's through immigration or natural growth, constant population growth is unfeasible and unsupported democratically. From 2011 - 2022 the population of England has grown by 4m or 360,000 per year. That's getting on for a brand new Birmingham in just over a decade, or a brand new Coventry every single year.

Not. Sustainable.

[neilj]

May 10, 2024 9:22:42 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate, and this lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early may 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed labour on average 11 points ahead.

Not at all, indeed I have posted in the past a few times about how Labour gained from both party gate as well. I got tired of mentioning both, but forgot you would be hovering. (Not sure but I think I might even have posted the graph showing the slide?) And the difference is that the slide under partygate was still potentially rather more recoverable for Tories, whereas after Truss it suddenly got a quite a lot harder. But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss.

Yes but the tories did make a brief recovery under Sunak, but for the past 12 months they've been on the slide.
Truss certainly played a part, but the decline of the tories and rise of Labour is much wider than that

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 9:02:50 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

Of course there are significant regional differences in the uk.

When we bought our most recent property in Runcorn Cheshire in 2019 the sale price was actually around £15,000 lower than when it was built around ten years earlier.

The prices have risen somewhat since but from construction of the development until now only by around 35% in over 15 years earlier, in real terms the rise is around 15%, it's popular, property goes in days when offered for sale or rent, well maintained ,nice views over the Mersey estuary and convenient for transport five minute drive to the train station to Liverpool , Manchester and Chester and it's just two hours by train to London.

You can still pick up a nice 3 bed semi with ensuite and gardens for well under £200,000. (I've got one for sale if anyone's interested☺) and two bedroom starter homes start from around £90,000.

It seems a bit bizarre almost as if it's a microcosm of what housing should be like in terms of cost

You'd expect a significant price increase but it just hasn't happened.

View Attachment

Ah yes, reminiscent of chats with mercian on the matter! That there are still some cheaper properties dotted about. There are numerous issues nonetheless, like where the jobs might be, or where your parents are esp. if you want to care for them or need help with child care (or in Mercian’s case, didn’t want to move schools etc.), how much you can rely on commuting by train given the cancellations etc. and can you afford it with the prices, etc.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 9:29:41 GMT neilj said:

May 10, 2024 9:22:42 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Not at all, indeed I have posted in the past a few times about how Labour gained from both party gate as well. I got tired of mentioning both, but forgot you would be hovering. (Not sure but I think I might even have posted the graph showing the slide?) And the difference is that the slide under partygate was still potentially rather more recoverable for Tories, whereas after Truss it suddenly got a quite a lot harder. But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss.

Yes but the tories did make a brief recovery under Sunak, but for the past 12 months they've been on the slide.
Truss certainly played a part, but the decline of the tories and rise of Labour is much wider than that

I agree, and have again said similar recently, noting the rise shortly after Truss then slump again. But how much is this due to Starmer and how much due to Sunak doing the square root of eff all, plus the rise of Reform etc.

[crossbat11]

May 10, 2024 9:22:42 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate, and this lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early may 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed labour on average 11 points ahead.

Not at all, indeed I have posted in the past a few times about how Labour gained from both party gate as well. I got tired of mentioning both, but forgot you would be hovering. (Not sure but I think I might even have posted the graph showing the slide?) And the difference is that the slide under partygate was still potentially rather more recoverable for Tories, whereas after Truss it suddenly got a quite a lot harder. But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss.

Isn't this the Starmer as unwitting beneficiary line, often taken by his detractors? Truss, partygate etc. Nothing to do with Starmer's political nous etc. Ma mother int law.....

Of course, it's self evidently true that the political misfortunes that befall your opponents tend to benefit you, but it's a bit churlish to deny any political credit to Starmer, isn't it? He played his hand well in terms of exploiting those political events some might argue.

This comes back to my point about nuance and bunkers. Corbyn's arch critics attribute his relative success in the 2017 election campaign primarily to May's hopelessness and the witless Tory campaign. Ma mother int law could have got a 40% vote share in that.....

[neilj]

May 10, 2024 9:33:15 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 10, 2024 9:29:41 GMT neilj said:

Yes but the tories did make a brief recovery under Sunak, but for the past 12 months they've been on the slide.
Truss certainly played a part, but the decline of the tories and rise of Labour is much wider than that

I agree, and have again said similar recently, noting the rise shortly after Truss then slump again. But how much is this due to Starmer and how much due to Sunak doing the square root of eff all, plus the rise of Reform etc.

I think Starmer’s 'don't frghten the horses strategy' has had a significant effect. Many people who turned away from Labour under the last year of Corbyn feel able to vote Labour again
He may now be too cautious, but of late they have put more meat on the bones. Personally I hope he goes further

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 9:37:33 GMT crossbat11 said:

May 10, 2024 9:22:42 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Not at all, indeed I have posted in the past a few times about how Labour gained from both party gate as well. I got tired of mentioning both, but forgot you would be hovering. (Not sure but I think I might even have posted the graph showing the slide?) And the difference is that the slide under partygate was still potentially rather more recoverable for Tories, whereas after Truss it suddenly got a quite a lot harder. But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss.

Isn't this the Starmer as unwitting beneficiary line, often taken by his detractors? Truss, partygate etc. Nothing to do with Starmer's political nous etc. Ma mother int law.....

Of course, it's self evidently true that the political misfortunes that befall your opponents tend to benefit you, but it's a bit churlish to deny any political credit to Starmer, isn't it? He played his hand well in terms of exploiting those political events some might argue.

This comes back to my point about nuance and bunkers. Corbyn's arch critics attribute his relative success in the 2017 election campaign primarily to May's hopelessness and the witless Tory campaign. Ma mother int law could have got a 40% vote share in that.....

No, it’s you trying to ascribe poor motives when it’s not the case. I am not saying Starmer should get no credit, and in the past have expressed support for the idea he might remove some hostages to fortune for example. I have expressed support for other things, like the focus on sorting planning first before investment. I haven’t really talked about it much because others have quite a bit, but you can also argue it’s wise to not talk about rejoining the EU. (In fact I pointed out the other day that it’s actually something of a left-wing policy)

And it is not unreasonable to note that power does quite often change hands when there is some big screw up, or maybe even two!

The point is to try and take everything into account. It may be true that some “arch critics” might do as you say, but my take on the 2017 election is that there are lots of factors, from the influence of Brexit, to May’s campaign, the returning UKIPers that James E pointed out, to Corbyn’s campaigning, impact of the two campaign pauses that AW showed graphically on the old board, impact of the policies that polled better than some might have expected, impact of the media (though, that seem to be rather worse in the subsequent election?), impact of all the resignations etc. etc… (But there wasn’t a calamity like the banking crisis etc.)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 9:41:06 GMT neilj said:

May 10, 2024 9:33:15 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

I agree, and have again said similar recently, noting the rise shortly after Truss then slump again. But how much is this due to Starmer and how much due to Sunak doing the square root of eff all, plus the rise of Reform etc.

I think Starmer’s 'don't frghten the horses strategy' has had a significant effect. Many people who turned away from Labour under the last year of Corbyn feel able to vote Labour again
He may now be too cautious, but of late they have put more meat on the bones. Personally I hope he goes further

It also has the benefits of not leaking policy for it to get nicked or attacked, as I have said before. But that is not the same as the notable falls that have occurred alongside partygate, Truss, Reform, et cetera. Starmer is doing a decent job of letting the Tories keep digging their hole without doing much to distract from it. He also was very good on the VAR thing…

[alec]

Hard to contextualise the significance of this, as there is no previous baseline, although the discovery of mosquitos across Scotland gives a glimpse of the future in a heating world - www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw0721l9183o

We're already seeing naturally transmitted cases of Dengue fever in France, and West Nile Virus is marching across Europe, along with other formerly tropical diseases, all borne by mosquitos. It's coming to the UK as well, because we've butchered the climate so much our winters are now too warm to kill off such invaders.

[James E]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"...But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss."

Let's look at how Starmer was doing before either of those things happened.

He became Labour leader with the party trailing the Conservatives by an average of 22 points in the polls, albeit that this was boosted by the post-election halo effect and the Covid crisis. This lead shrank to almost zero by Autumn 2020, but rose again to 10% or so in Summer 2021 at the time of the vaccine bounce. But it's worth remembering that he had again reduced The Tories' poll lead to almost zero by November 2021 - so before partygate broke. Looking at the YouGov linked below, we have their 18 Nov 2021 figures with Con 36, Lab 34, and comparative figures of 35/35 from the previous week.

However, if we look at the 'Best PM' figures in the same two polls, Starmer led Johnson by 2 points in each of these. This might not seem remarkable, but the normal pattern is for Leaders of the Opposition to fare significantly less well in "Best PM" questions than their party is faring in the headline Voting intention figures. Look at the figures for Milliband or Corbyn (or even Blair) when they were LOTO for comparison. So Starmer's personal ratings as potential PM - even before Partygate - were very strong when measured on a like-for-like basis against his predecessors.

docs.cdn.yougov.com/g8dunbfqqh/TheTimes_VI_211118_W.pdf

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 10:08:21 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"...But yes, we can say that Starmer got a double benefit from both partygate and Truss."

Let's look at how Starmer was doing before either of those things happened.

He became Labour leader with the party trailing the Conservatives by an average of 22 points in the polls, albeit that this was boosted by the post-election halo effect and the Covid crisis. This lead shrank to almost zero by Autumn 2020, but rose again to 10% or so in Summer 2021 at the time of the vaccine bounce. But it's worth remembering that he had again reduced The Tories' poll lead to almost zero by November 2021. Looking at the YouGov linked below, we have their 18 Nov 2021 figures with Con 36, Lab 34, and comparative figures of 35/35 from the previous week.

However, if we look at the 'Best PM' figures in the same two polls, Starmer led Johnson by 2 points in each of these. This might not seem remarkable, but the normal pattern is for Leaders of the Opposition to fare significantly less well in "Best PM" questions than their party is faring in the headline Voting intention figures. Look at the figures for Milliband or Corbyn (or even Blair) when they were LOTO for comparison.

docs.cdn.yougov.com/g8dunbfqqh/TheTimes_VI_211118_W.pdf

If Tories fall in the polls, it isn’t necessarily because Starmer caused it. Tories gained with the vaccine programme, fell back with Xmas lockdown issues IIRC? Starmer’s minimalist approach has the merit of not leaving many hostages to fortune, but it also makes it harder to move the dial. However, as we know, it’s quite hard for oppositions to move the dial anyway, and when you look at the polling, the big changes come with things like partygate, Truss, the rise of Reform etc. Regarding best PM, that’s an interesting point, possibly reflecting lack of media hostility towards Starmer, a benefit of appearing to move right? But again, the big VI changes tend to come with governing party issues

[graham]

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate. This lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early May 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed Labour on average 11 points ahead.


On the more general point about Labour's ability to win under Corbyn - this poll from August 2023 seems to me the best relevant evidence..

"Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
Aug 2023."
Changes w/ Regular VI.
12:42 pm · 18 Aug 2023

@james E

As you will well know, hypothetical polls such as that are of limited value - though I have no doubt at all that were Labour still led by Corbyn its polling lead would be much narrower than we are seeing currently. I would,however, expect that lead to increase somewhat in an election campaign.

[neilj]

Survation, again no sign of polls tightening

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 44 (-)
CON 24 (-2)
LD 10 (+1)
GRN 7 (+4)
RFM 8 (-2)
SNP 2 (-1)
OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.

[graham]

May 10, 2024 10:19:43 GMT neilj said:

Survation, again no sign of polls tightening

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 44 (-)
CON 24 (-2)
LD 10 (+1)
GRN 7 (+4)
RFM 8 (-2)
SNP 2 (-1)
OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.

Several polls now appear to be showing Reform slipping back a bit.

[neilj]

Looking ahead to the summer months, traditionally not much happens, it's hard to see polls moving much. If anything the summer is likely to see an increase in small boat crossings, which won't be good news for the tories
On the plus side for them the economy may improve, but I suspect it will be too little and too late

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“Britain’s economy is “going gangbusters,” the UK’s statistics office has said, as Britain escaped recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) hailed the performance of the economy as gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.6pc in the first quarter of 2024.

The expansion was ahead of analyst estimates of growth of 0.4pc and meant that the UK is no longer in recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction at the end of 2023.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “To paraphrase the former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating, you could say the economy is going gangbusters.””

Telegraph

(Chances this will change the polling??…)

[Rafwan]

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate. This lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early May 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed Labour on average 11 points ahead.


On the more general point about Labour's ability to win under Corbyn - this poll from August 2023 seems to me the best relevant evidence..

"Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
Aug 2023."
Changes w/ Regular VI.
12:42 pm · 18 Aug 2023

What an intriguing (and, if I may say, slightly impish post). It suggests that even after three years of vilification and condemnation and ejection from the PLP, Corbyn’s Labour was still favoured over the Tories. I am sure you would agree though that it is too hypothetical to have any real meaning.

Your main point does seem to show clearly that the real rot set in under Johnson. Truss was merely an additional aberration.

[graham]

The earliest election date would now be June 20th. If no announcement happens over the next two weeks, no election will be likely before October.

[James E]

May 10, 2024 10:19:43 GMT neilj said:

Survation, again no sign of polls tightening

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 44 (-)
CON 24 (-2)
LD 10 (+1)
GRN 7 (+4)
RFM 8 (-2)
SNP 2 (-1)
OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.

Those are stunningly bad figures for the Conservatives.

Survation's 'no prompt by party names' methodology normally produces some of the highest Con VI figures, and also the lowest for RefUK. Before this, the lowest Con VI they have shown since Oct 2022 was 26%. This is also their highest Labour lead for 18 months. 

Taken with the Techne and YouGov figures we have had in the past 24 hours, we now need just one more for '4 in a row'. With fieldwork of 9-10 May, these figures from Survation are the most recent that we have. 

[steve]

"That's getting on for a brand new Birmingham in just over a decade, or a brand new Coventry every single year."

Or around 500 less of the U.K.'s 2500 golf courses over a decade!

Totally sustainable

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

There’s a kind of irony in the Tory performance in that one might argue they had the keys to the kingdom and threw them away.

The Tory response to both Covid and the Energy crisis was to be rather more left-wing than one might expect, with furlough and then the energy subsidies.*

And it worked ok economically, didn’t it? If we take the energy crisis in particular, while we had some inflation, it kept it in check and we didn’t need anything like the size of interest rate hikes we used in the 70s.

Now you might argue it was worse in the 70s, but part of what made it worse, was the relatively right-wing economic response of both the Tories and, remarkably, the Labour government.

Because the inflation led to wage pressures, and the Tories under Heath responded by having a Miners’ strike, that made the energy crisis even worse, as now we lacked both oil and coal, and Labour also resisted wage increases, resulting eventually in the winter of discontent. Right-wing responses seeking to nail inflation by bearing down on the workers’ pay, rather than dealing with the source of the problem: crazy energy prices.**

I would have wanted to see a greater subsidy, more like France, and maybe even have a state energy player in the market, like what Starmer has talked about. But even so, as far as they went, it worked okay, and they could be doing more of that sort of thing, doing more to ease cost-of-living, but instead they seem keener to try and leave a mess for Labour, and in the process are scuppering their chances of re-election.

(Of course, it’s possible they prefer to try and stack the deck for the future, even if it’s at the cost of the election…)

* and yes, these were hardly Tory innovations - things like furlough and the energy subsidies were done on the continent - but still, the Tories did adopt them and showed the efficacy

** Labour in the Sixties had already set us up for greater energy problems in future by closing lots of pits and switching leccy production to oil, right wing free-market globalism leaving us vulnerable to global market volatilities. Whereas currently the response is more left-wing by seeking more home-grown energy

[Deleted]

May 9, 2024 6:58:29 GMT pjw1961 said:

One local government by-election today and the rare chance of a Labour gain direct from the Conservatives in Scotland. It will be seen that the late Conservative councillor had only been in third place in first preferences behind Labour and the SNP, with Labour topping the poll. Logically therefore in a single member by-election (and given the mess the SNP and Conservatives are in) a Labour gain is highly likely.

NORTH AYRSHIRE UA; Kilwinning (Con died)
GIBSON, Ian Charles (Scottish Family Party)
GIBSON, Sheila (SNP)
HUME, Mary (Labour)
KIRKWOOD, Ruby (Liberal Democrat)
LAWLER, Chris (Conservative)

2022: Lab 1714, 842 (both elected); SNP 1225 (elected), 714; Con 867 (elected); LD 191

And so it came to pass.

www.markpack.org.uk/171064/lib-dems-stand-in-ward-for-first-time-as-new-batch-of-by-elections-kick-off/

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 10:31:38 GMT Rafwan said:

May 10, 2024 9:17:57 GMT James E said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

"Read the other day that Starmer almost resigned after Hartlepool but was talked out of it, and then Truss happened."

Rather a lot happened in the 16 months between the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021 and Truss's brief stint as PM in Sept-Oct 2022. And as a matter of fact, Labour under Starmer moved ahead in the polls just 7 months after Hartlepool at the start of Partygate. This lead was more than 10 points at times in Summer 2022.

I can't help feeling that either you or your source is trying to airbrush away the advances that Labour made when Johnson was PM. If we take that 10-point Con lead in early May 2021, then two-thirds of Labour's subsequent advance to the 20-point lead (as seen for the past 18 months) happened pre-Truss; the polls in the last month or so of Johnson's time as PM showed Labour on average 11 points ahead.


On the more general point about Labour's ability to win under Corbyn - this poll from August 2023 seems to me the best relevant evidence..

"Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
Aug 2023."
Changes w/ Regular VI.
12:42 pm · 18 Aug 2023

What an intriguing (and, if I may say, slightly impish post). It suggests that even after three years of vilification and condemnation and ejection from the PLP, Corbyn’s Labour was still favoured over the Tories. I am sure you would agree though that it is too hypothetical to have any real meaning.

Your main point does seem to show clearly that the real rot set in under Johnson. Truss was merely an additional aberration.

There’s no doubt the rot set in under Johnson. The question is whether it might have still been recoverable, because the polling wasn’t that bad, and Johnson has campaigning chops. The potential impact of Truss wasn’t just that it moved polling down sharply even more, but it removed the key campaigner, and thus far it does not seem that Sunak is an adequate replacement! Tho’ I suppose you never know. Maybe he’s gaslighting! 

However, this is to a degree hypothetical: you might argue that Johnson was now holed below the waterline, and would not have been able to have the same campaigning power as before. In which case, one has to note that there wasn’t just one calamitous event in Truss, but the slower-burn partygate as well, and then you have the high immigration and the losses to Reform…

[Deleted]

May 10, 2024 10:19:43 GMT neilj said:

Survation, again no sign of polls tightening

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 44 (-)
CON 24 (-2)
LD 10 (+1)
GRN 7 (+4)
RFM 8 (-2)
SNP 2 (-1)
OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.

Some further detail on the latest Survation.

www.survation.com/post-locals-mood-check-labour-have-a-20-point-westminster-lead/